Gold outlook: Is the rally for real?

(16 March 2014)  Gold prices moved higher last week as Russia tightened its hold on Crimea and threatened a full-scale invasion of the rest of Ukraine.  Gold is a traditional safe haven investment that often does well in times of geopolitical uncertainty, as the current crisis in Ukraine shows.  Gold finished the week at $1382, well above its recent low of $1180 set at the end of December.   But can gold extend its rally and recapture its previous levels of $1900 or is this just a short-lived technical bounce?  With the Fed going ahead with its taper of QE, gold seems less attractive as currency debasement and inflation fears are receding. A major war on European soil would no doubt revive gold's fortunes, but that seems unlikely as most analysts do not expect NATO or the US going to war over Ukraine, a traditional Russian satellite within its sphere of influence.

There are any number of astrological techniques that are useful in forecasting the price of gold.  The one I would like to highlight today is tertiary progressions. 
Tertiaries are a Western astrological technique that assume a symbolic equivalence between time frames of planetary motion.  Tertiary progressions (TP) assume that one day's worth of motion of the planets will contain a symbolic significance for one lunar month.  This is a condensed ratio of time that is 1:27, in which 27 is the approximate number of days in a lunar month.  The advantage of tertiary progressions over transits, for example, is that they move less slowly and are therefore more powerful in describing major events and trends.  In a tertiary progressed chart the inner planets such as the Sun, Mercury and Venus move about one degree per month of real time while more distant planets like Jupiter and Saturn may only move a few minutes of arc per month.  Since motion is slower than with regular transits, close alignments are rarer and last longer.  They are therefore more likely to produce significant manifestations.

We can take a look at the horoscope for gold prices to see how this technique works.  Using the 1919 London Gold chart, we can see that the high for gold at $1920 in September 2011 occurring during a very favourable pattern in the tertiary progressed chart.  TP Neptune (24 Cancer) is just one degree from the MC or 10th house cusp, one of the most sensitive points in the chart.  Jupiter (23 Libra) is closely aligned with Neptune represents a clear bullish influence that had been in place for several years as its angle with Neptune tightened.  This Jupiter-Neptune alignment was joined by benefics Mercury (20 Capricorn) and Venus (24 Scorpio).  TP Mercury had stationed retrograde in June 2011 at 22 Capricorn but was still within range of the slower moving duo of Jupiter and Neptune. 

Three of the four planets in this alignment were bullish planets and this was a key reason why this pattern represented the culmination of an up trend.  Once the planets began to separate, the bullish energy began to fade.  While TP Jupiter would continue to tighten its 90 degree angle with Neptune for several more months, it would lack any supporting planet such as Venus or Mercury that would help to bring out its positive energy.  As a result, the gold price started to fall. 

By way of comparison, let's look at the progressed chart for first low of $1180 in late June 2013.  Not surprisingly, Saturn is more prominent in this chart.  Saturn is a bearish planet that is often implicated in significant lows.   Mars is in close opposition to Saturn here, and Mars sits in a conjunction with the natal Moon.  Mars is another malefic planet that tend to be involved with declines and market lows.  This was an additional layer of affliction to gold and represented the end of a huge and somewhat shocking price decline after gold's celebrated all-time high less than two years before.  Once Mars had moved off from the Moon and out of its alignment with Saturn, gold rallied somewhat.  Gold would revisit this low of $1180 in December as progressed Saturn was once again activated by an alignment with Jupiter and Venus. 

Looking ahead, the tertiary progressed chart for gold looks uninspiring for the rest of 2014.  We can see that TP Saturn remains in close opposition to the natal Moon.  This is usually a negative influence and argues against any major rally in gold.  Jupiter, Saturn and Rahu (NN) are all in close alignment at the moment and I take this is a largely mixed to negative influence.  While Jupiter is bullish and Rahu can go either way, the presence of Saturn in this very slow moving alignment undermines everything else. TP Mercury will align with these other planets later in the year in August-September so that is another potential low point for gold. 

To be sure, this rather mixed tertiary chart does not preclude more short term upside for gold.  Tertiary progressions are less useful for finely tuned predictions and better for identifying medium term trends.  With that caveat in mind, we can say that this tertiary chart suggests that gold is unlikely to move much higher in 2014.  Moreover, the presence of the Mercury-Saturn aspect and later the Venus-Mars aspect in Q4 means that gold will likely suffer significant declines.  Mercury's opposition with natal Mars and TP Neptune in the next several months are also problematic aspects in this respect.  One wild card is that the TP Sun-Uranus conjunction in August does seem quite bullish and may indicate a sudden, sharp rally.  However, this seems unlikely to be sustainable in the longer term.


Financial Markets Update

While gold rallied last week, stocks stumbled as investors bailed out of risky assets.  The Dow lost 2% closing at 16,065 while in India the Sensex suffered only marginal losses finishing at 21,809.  This decline was in keeping with our expectations as I thought the two Saturn aspects on Tuesday and Thursday would likely be a drag on sentiment.  Interestingly, the Dow's two biggest down days of the week occurred on Tuesday and Thursday. 

This week looks somewhat more encouraging as the early week Venus-Jupiter aspect suggests a rebound.  The midweek Sun-Rahu alignment is somewhat more problematic, however, so that is more of a question mark.  Interestingly, the Sun-Rahu aspect occurs just as the Fed releases its latest policy statement on Wednesday.  This is not a hugely negative aspect so I would be surprised if there was a strong reaction to Yellen.  That said, it does not seem conducive for a big market rally either. 

The mystery of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370

(9 March 2014)  Almost two days after it disappeared from radar screens, there is still no sign of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370.  Originating out of Kuala Lumpur and bound for Beijing, MH370 apparently vanished from tracking radar less than two hours into its flight.  It is believed to have gone down somewhere in the Gulf of Thailand between Malaysia and Vietnam.  There was no distress call from the pilots and thus far there is also no sign of wreckage in the sea.  There were 279 people on board.  There is a possibility of terrorism as several passengers were travelling with stolen passports but that remains speculative at this point.  The vanishing plane is a mysterious and disturbing event that has so far not yielded any answers.

A horoscope cast for the time of take-off provides an intriguing picture.  MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur at 00.41 a.m. on March 8th.  The resulting chart of the flight shows nearly exactly angular Moon and Neptune.  The Moon (13 Taurus) is exactly on the 7th house cusp while Neptune (11 Aquarius) sits precisely on the unequal 4th house cusp (or IC).   This combination is about as appropriate as one can imagine since Neptune symbolizes mystery, confusion and above all, water.  The 4th house also has the connotation of the "end of the matter", so Neptune's placement there is a reflection of the airplane's potentially watery fate.  The Moon is similarly considered a somewhat water-related planet, although it is worth noting the Moon was not in a water sign.  The Moon symbolizes humans and human emotion in such mundane charts and its pairing with Neptune may be seen as the difficult emotions felt by the relatives of the passengers as they await word of their loved ones.  It seems a tragic end is inevitable in this matter, but the tragedy is unfolding in slow motion as the whereabouts of the plane is unknown. 

Interestingly, the flight only contains some partial Mars afflictions.  Scorpio is rising in the chart, a sign that is ruled by Mars.  Mars is placed in the 12th house of loss, isolation and faraway places conjunct weird and unpredictable Rahu (North Lunar Node).  To be sure, this is a difficult placement that may further reflect the mysterious and violent nature of this case.  And yet, many flights take off under similar sorts of Mars-Rahu afflictions and land safely.  It may be that the Moon-Neptune factor created an extra burden on this flight that produced a different outcome.

Even then, I would not say that this chart is afflicted enough to describe, let alone, foretell, the missing flight nor its probable fate.  The extra dimension in this equation is still missing.  That is, the place and time where the plane went down.  Other flights may have taken off just a couple of minutes before or after MH370 and did not meet with any unexpected developments.  However, I would think the actual path of the plane is another part of the puzzle that could hold additional clues.   Fast-moving transits of the angles (ASC/MC) to the take-off chart may have activated more malefic planets.



Financial Markets Update

Stocks generally rose last week as the imminent threat of military action in Crimea subsided.  We did get some the expected early week jitters on the Mars-Venus aspect but then the Jupiter-Uranus influence took over and pushed stocks higher.  This bullish result was not too surprising given the underlying strength of the Jupiter-Uranus influence.  Bullish Jupiter stationed on Thursday and has since resumed its forward motion in the sky.  The Dow came to within one percent of another all time high closing at 16,452.  Indian stocks surged on pre-election optimism as investors anticipated the victory of the business-friendly BJP-led government.  The Sensex jumped 4% making a new all-time high closing just under 22,000. 

This week looks a little more tentative for stocks as there are two different aspects involving the planet Saturn -- one on Tuesday and one on Thursday.  Friday's Mercury-Mars aspect is also another potential source of trouble.  Not all these aspects will necessarily translate into declines, of course, since other factors can influence the overall outcome.  And this is even more the case now that bullish Jupiter is moving towards it aspect with Uranus.  But it does mean that stocks may have a harder time making new highs this week.  We shall see.

 

Putin calls Obama's bluff in Crimea

(2 March 2014)  Vladimir Putin apparently called Barack Obama's bluff this week as Russia prepared to invade the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine.  Despite Obama's repeated warnings not to invade, Putin nonetheless received Parliamentary approval to send the Russian army into this predominantly ethnic Russian region in Eastern Ukraine. Putin has taken advantage of the instability in Ukraine which was just in the process of forming a new government after ousting President Yanukovych. With the US and the West seemingly reluctant to engage Russia militarily, Putin is taking a calculated risk that Obama and his allies will not be able to intervene.  And even if the West did decide to help Ukraine to defend its borders, any military aid may be too little and too late to stop the nearby Russian tanks.

We can see some clear sources of trouble in President Obama's horoscope that reflect his latest foreign policy problem.  Most crucial is that Mars, the planet of conflict and violence, had just stationed retrograde at 3 degrees of Libra on Saturday, the day after the covert invasion of advanced forces.  Mars is almost exactly aspecting Obama's Saturn at 2 Capricorn by square aspect.  The Mars-Saturn square is usually difficult and reflects frustrating situations and setbacks.  The aspect was likely to bring more hassles for Obama because it was station and hence the angle would last longer.  Saturn is also Obama's dasha lord and lagna lord, so the Mars affliction was that much more potent.  Mars is probably an awkward energy for the ever-diplomatic Obama since it is placed in his 8th house of obstacles and embarrassments in his natal chart.  Mars transits are therefore likely to bring this difficult 8th house energy to bear in his chart. 

The conjunction of transiting Venus to Saturn at the same time may have reflected Obama's sense of isolation and separation.  Two days before, Mercury had just stationed on Obama's Ascendant.  Mercury rules the 9th house (Virgo) which represents foreign lands and its conjunction with the Ascendant brings foreign policy to the fore at this time.  As an added burden, transiting Ketu is forming a close aspect to Obama's Rahu.  Such node-to-node transits are usually problematic, especially when the other transit impacts are negative as they are here.  And we may wonder what the impact is of the Saturn station on March 2nd which forms an exact 60 degree angle to Obama's Mars.  While this is not a full strength Vedic aspect, it is too exact to ignore.  Saturn stations are very powerful sources of stress and unwanted situations, however necessary they may be in the long run.  Saturn afflictions to Mars are classic indicators of stress and failure arising from conflictive situations. 

Even more interesting perhaps is the relationship between Putin and Obama.  It is widely believed that the two men do not get along as past meetings and summits show a strained body language and a lack of rapport.  And overlay of their two horoscopes is revealing and show why Putin seems to be able to gain the upper hand against Obama.  Putin scored a big foreign policy win in Syria last year as Obama's infamous "red line" quickly dissolved in the face of domestic opposition to his proposal to strike at the Asad regime.  The same thing seems to be occurring here.  Putin's birth time is unconfirmed, but just the placement of the planets on the day of his birth show why Putin may give Obama problems.  Putin's Rahu is sitting on Obama's Ascendant at 24 Capricorn.  Rahu represents uncertainty and change and when it is focused on a key point (e.g. Ascendant, Moon, Sun) in another person's chart, it can mean that the Rahu person is unpredictable and unknowable for the Ascendant person.  Obama may try to logically outsmart Putin but Putin may be operating by a different set of rules that Obama cannot understand. 

Even more telling is that Putin's forceful and unrelenting Sun-Saturn conjunction sits almost exactly on Obama's 9th house cusp.  Putin's Saturn in this position suggests he will create foreign policy losses and disappointment (Saturn in 9th house) for Obama.  This pattern seems to be happening all over again in the Ukraine and Crimea.  Putin's Uranus sits on Obama's 6th house cusp.  Uranus represents an independent and rebellious energy while the 6th house symbolizes conflict.  Putin's Uranus points to surprising and sudden expenditures of energy that may cause conflict for Obama that force him into a defensive posture.  To say the least, this is not conducive to a mutually beneficial and cooperative relationship.

While Mars now backs off its station in early Libra, it will transit into Virgo which happens to be Obama's 9th house.  (= conflict abroad).  It will station in mid-Virgo in May.  The Ketu to-Rahu aspect will also be in effect until May also thus suggesting that Obama's problems in this matter could last a while.  Saturn will similarly back away from its aspect with Mars but it could be some time before Obama feels relief from this movement.  In other words, this difficult situation is likely to continue to occupy Obama's attention for several more weeks at least.  Obama's chart only improves once Jupiter enters sidereal Cancer in July where it will aspect his Saturn and conjoin his Mercury and Sun. Any diplomatic or military victories are therefore more likely to come after July.

The planets here do not suggest a quick resolution or a sudden backing down by Putin.  While we don't know his birth time, Putin's chart looks quite energized as Mars will back over his Virgo planets between now and May.  Mars will resume its forward motion in May and then activate his Sun-Saturn once again in June.  Mars is the "bringer of war" so that is a clue that Vladimir Putin will try to assert Russia's sphere of influence in this matter. 


Financial Markets Update

While the chaos in Ukraine has dampened the mood on some European financial markets, stocks rose on most other exchanges such as the US, India and Japan.  The gains were not too surprising given the ongoing Jupiter-Uranus aspect which will last into April.

This week we will see what the immediate effects are of the rare quadruple planetary stations of Mercury, Mars, Saturn and Jupiter. Markets have a tendency of reversing their trends around planetary stations so we will see if the recent new highs in the US markets are followed by some kind of decline.  Certainly, the early week looks more negative as Mars is in aspect with Venus.  But the late week is seemingly less negative so perhaps stocks can bounce back once again. Jupiter is still in close aspect with Uranus through all of March so that may lend some support to the stock market.  Even if we do see pullbacks, they are less likely to be large.

Ukraine protests ousts President on planetary stations

Ukraine's ongoing violent protests against its authoritarian pro-Russian government came to an abrupt end this week as a defiant President Yanukovych escaped the chaos by helicopter.   A new unity government was sworn-in the next day.  After months of street battles and violence had destroyed Independence Square of Kiev, the end came more suddenly that most of the protesters could have hoped.  The victory of this so-called Ukrainian Revolution will likely once again orient the former Soviet Republic towards Europe and the EU.  Although freely elected, the previous government had become increasingly intolerant of criticism and free speech in recent years and had moved away from Europe and into closer alliance with Russia.  It is an open question if Ukraine's political system is pliable enough to handle the deeply-rooted divisions in the country as half want closer ties to Europe and half want to be closer to Russia. 

As an astrologer, I am naturally curious about how the current planets might have related to the natal chart of the Ukraine.  Certainly, there is an unusual amount of energy in the sky these days as we approach a rare quadruple station of Mercury, Mars, Saturn and Jupiter all within one week of each other.  A station occurs when planets change their apparent direction from our vantage point on Earth.  Stations are therefore marked by unusually low planetary velocity and for a day or two the planet does not appear to move at all.  It is completely stationary, hence the term, "station".  Planets become more powerful around these stations and usually correlate with significant situations and developments in the world. 

It seems that a good portion of this energy is restless and negative, however, as Ukraine has removed its sitting President, while Venezuela is also in the throes of violent civil unrest  around an upcoming election.  Violence is also increasing recently in Thailand where ongoing political protests against the government appears to be entering a new and deadlier stage. 

 

The Ukraine chart is one cast for the moment that Ukraine was declared independent as the USSR quickly collapsed in 1991.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see how much instability and affliction there is in this chart.  The Jupiter-Uranus square aspect sets up on the 4th and 7th house cusps and thus directly aspects the all-important Ascendant.  Jupiter is benefic of course but Uranus is quite unsettling and when it is parked over an angle as it here, it can reflect situations of change and disruption of the status quo.  The Jupiter influence here may be one reason why there appears to be a happy ending of sorts and a cessation of violence.  And we can see that Uranus may have played a special role here because the Ukraine was "born" with Uranus rising.  This is a clue that any subsequent transit of Uranus to any of the angles (1st, 4th,7th, 10th cusps) would be more likely to coincide with major events that affect the nature of the nation as a whole.  Transiting Pluto exerts extra pressure on the Ascendant and suggests major transformational change, especially using coercive means.  Pluto is a background sort of influence due to its very slow motion but it is clearly part of the larger picture of change. 

We can get a glimpse of the level of suffering and dislocation from the protests from Saturn's approaching retrograde station at 29 degrees of sidereal Libra.  This is just three degrees short of a perfect forward square aspect to Mercury and Jupiter at 2 Leo.  Jupiter is the 1st house ruler (lagnesh) symbolizing the nation and Mercury is the ruler of the 10th house representing rulers and leaders.  This was not a good aspect for the incumbent government.  The extent of the sacrifice and suffering is also reflected in the closer square aspect between Saturn and the Moon.  The Moon symbolizes "the people" and the national mood.

Of course, the Sun is the planet that best typifies leaders and the head of state.  As it happens, it was under close affliction by transiting Ketu (6 Aries).  The South Lunar Node is usually malefic by transit and is especially antithetical to mundane affairs such as daily governance.  Ketu-Sun aspects are therefore usually bad news for sitting governments.  Yanukovych's bad luck here was that the Ketu-Sun aspect happened at the same time as all these other very stressful aspects.  One affliction to the Sun or to the Ascendant is rarely enough to force a regime change.  Even two such aspects from slow moving planets may only reflect a serious scandal or resignation.  But when there are four or five simultaneous afflictions to a national chart, you have to start to consider the possibility of a revolution in which the entire ruling party will be removed and major alliances will be redrawn.

The transit of Saturn into Scorpio next year will likely bring another round of pressure on any new government.  Saturn will square the Sun and Venus in in the spring of 2015 so it is possible that the government will undergo another major change.  Transiting Rahu will conjoin the 10th house cusp at this time so that is confirmatory evidence that the new Ukranian government will likely be forced out.  A more optimistic reading of these planets would be that the interim government is simply replaced by an elected government sometime in the first half of 2015.  However, the precariousness of the situation and the malefic nature of the planets involved suggests that is not a probable scenario. 

Financial markets update

Financial markets were mixed last week as winter weather made interpreting the weak US economic data more difficult.  US stocks held mostly steady while Indian shares rose smartly.  Crude oil and gold also moved higher.  We did get some weakness midweek around the Moon-Mars conjunction as US stocks pulled back on Wednesday.  But it seems the market is still being fueled by the Jupiter-Uranus square aspect.  This is a bullish pairing and when both planets are moving more slowly than normal as is the case now, there is a greater probability for markets to rise. 

This week could see some troubles around the Venus-Saturn aspect early in the week.  However, the ongoing Jupiter-Uranus aspect offers hope for a rebound, especially later in the week when the Sun aligns with Jupiter.  The larger question is whether this rare series of four planetary stations over the next week will coincide with any major trend reversals.  There are no hard and fast rules in this regard, although some telling correspondences have been observed.  Most recently, the Venus direct station on February 1st coincided with a significant interim low in most global markets. 

Markets applaud Yellen's inaugural testimony as Fed Chair

(16 February 2014)  Incoming Fed Chair Janet Yellen made her first appearance before Congress this week as legislators quizzed her on the Federal Reserve's monterary policies.   Yellen's remarks were well received as US financial markets generally rose throughout the week.  Yellen emphasized the continuity of the Fed's policy of near-zero interest rates and the promise to extend the tapering of QE as long as the economic data warranted it.  US stocks climbed through the week on her testimony which seemed to calm worries over a possible slowdown.  Gold investors were especially enthused over her desire to increase inflation to 2.5% through further measures.  Gold gained 3% on the week closing near $1320.  Indian stocks slipped a bit, although they remained within their recent trading range.

In other words, Yellen is telling markets exactly what they want to hear.  If things turn sour again for the economy, the Fed will be there to open the taps and flood the market with lots more free money.  Whether this will actually improve employment and the economy as a whole is another question, but it will certainly boost stocks and make the Wall St bankers happy.  Good economic news means stocks can rise on future earnings expectations.  Bad economic news means the Fed will goose the market in order to improve money flow and thereby stimulate the economy.   Now more than ever, the Fed plays a pivotal role in financial markets.

The importance of the Federal Reserve pertains not only to investments, but to the world economy as a whole.  The Fed pulls the strings, and the economy dances.  Or not.  This makes Yellen vitally important for understanding where the world economy is likely to be headed during her term as Chair. 

The astrological dimension is not without some usefulness in this matter.  The moment Yellen assumed the Chair of the Fed is a significant moment in time that is inscribed with a unique cosmic imprint.  Yellen assumed the office of Chair of the Fed at 12.01 a.m. on Saturday February 1st.  The resulting horoscope can provide insight about the nature of her term.  One complicating factor is that Yellen took the oath two days later on Monday February 3 at 9.10 a.m in Washington, DC.  Both charts are potentially revealing, although given my drothers, I would defer to the midnight Feb 1 chart.  Let's take a look.

The February 1st chart has Rahu rising with Mars just a few degrees away.  This is anything but a picture of stability and tradition.  Rahu suggests bold moves and very independent thinking to the point where they can be destabilizing and unpredictable.  Right off the bat, we have some indication that Yellen's Fed will be different from the Fed of Bernanke and Greenspan.  The fairly close proximity of Mars to Rahu suggests that the bold moves will be accompanied by some annoyance or awkwardness, if not frustration and pain. 

Libra rises in the chart which is ruled by Venus.  Venus is tightly conjunct Pluto (power) and closely opposed by Jupiter (expansion).  There are at least two possible interpretations to this configuration.  The first is that the Fed will likely expand its loose monetary policy since Jupiter is all about expansion and inflation.  Perhaps the Fed will expand its balance sheet once again in order to boost employment, or perhaps just buy stocks directly. Alternatively, the Fed could simply expand its reach and its institutional power during Yellen's term.  This needn't be inflationary but may involve experimenting with new policy tools beyond interest rates and bond buying.  Either way, it does seem more likely that the Fed will continue to fill the policy breach created by the political stalemate in DC. 

The other important pattern in this chart is the Moon-Mercury-Neptune conjunction.  This usually represents an inspired vision with enhanced communication.  Neptune can sometimes indicate delusion and deception although that is not always the case.  However, in this chart, we can see that the Moon-Mercury-Neptune trio receives a near exact aspect from Rahu.  That is probably unhelpful for Yellen's ability to communicate clearly and effectively.  I would think that this pattern is more likely to reflect some confusion in her policies as well as problems with the media and investment community making sense of the Fed's intentions, especially in its forward guidance.

Most of these issues are actually repeated in the swearing-in horoscope.  The Mercury-Neptune conjunction is still there under the influence of Rahu and has now shifted to the 12th house.  This arguably a worse placement as it means that communication and policy logic is more likely to be hidden from view or least viewed in that way.  This may indicate a perception of a lack of transparency in Fed policy.  The Moon has moved on of course but is now in the 1st house with Uranus.  Moon-Uranus in the 1st house is a classic signature for sudden movements, and often unpredictable.  There may be a sense of ingenuity here, as if Yellen will be responding to changing situations with some inventive and clever ideas.  But the rest of the chart looks somewhat stressed, as if no matter how inventive Yellen may be, there will be some significant headwinds for the Fed during her tenure.  Mars-Rahu are very close to the 8th house cusp signifying painful obstacles and setbacks.  But Yellen herself may be able to deflect most of the criticism as the Venus-Jupiter-Pluto configuration is invoked once again.  Pisces rises in the chart which is ruled by Jupiter and this receives the aspect of Venus.  There is a sense of a "get out of jail free" card in this pattern which could be useful in maintaining Yellen's credibility. 

The 9.10 a.m. oath chart is somewhat better than the midnight term chart but both do speak to the likelihood of an eventful and challenging term for Janet Yellen.  It may also mean that another significant round of economic turbulence is more likely in the next few years.

This week features an interesting contrast between planetary influences.  On the bullish side, we can see that Jupiter and Uranus are still in a very close square alignment.  This has been building in February and is likely one of the reasons for the buoyant markets in the US and Europe.  But Mercury forms a square with Saturn in midweek which could dent the optimism, especially given the simultaneous Moon-Mars-Rahu conjunction.  The Sun also comes under the aspect of Rahu which can also be troublesome.

Political Crisis in Thailand: Mars and Saturn preclude a quick resolution

(2 February 2014)  Thailand's controversial election was held today amidst an atmosphere of violence, distrust, and confusion.  Voting in many districts was postponed due to protesters blocking the arrival of ballots and officials.  There was no election at all in nine southern provinces where all candidates had been prevented from registering in January.  The election seems to be little more than a public relations exercise for the besieged government of Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of the indicted exiled former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. The main opposition Democrat party boycotted the election as they consider the government illegitimate due to numerous corruption charges and chronic economic mismanagement.  With the election unlikely to settle anything, there seemed to be little hope that deep class and regional divisions in this normally peaceful Southeast Asian country would be resolved any time soon.

The astrological perspective on the crisis in Thailand suggests that the political stalemate will likely continue.  The Thailand chart that marks the beginning of the current Chakri royal dynasty -- a moment in time chosen by Thai astrologers in 1782 --  shows a very heavily afflicted Ascendant by the transit of Saturn.  Saturn (28 Libra) is slowing down ahead of its retrograde station at 29 Libra on March 2nd.  Saturn is usually a bad planet, especially when it opposes a sensitive point in the chart like the Ascendant.  And when it slows its velocity, it usually coincides with significant situations of delay, obstacles, loss and sometimes destruction. 

The protests against the proposed government Amnesty Bill which would have allowed the deposed former PM Thaksin back to Thailand began in earnest in November.  Saturn was still eight degrees away from its aspect with the Ascendant but it was one central reason for the protests.  The Ascendant represents the body and soul of a nation so any affliction by a slow moving malefic like Saturn is bound to correspond to times of national concern and even crisis.

In November, December and January, transiting Ketu (South Lunar Node) conjoined the natal Sun of Thailand at 10 Aries.  Ketu tends to reflect situations of change, uncertainty and disruption of the status quo.  The Sun, of course, symbolizes governments and leaders so that Ketu-Sun affliction was a very apt influence during the growing protests and strategic blockading of major intersections in Bangkok by the emboldened protest movement. 

Now that Ketu has moved past the Sun, the nature of the protests have changed.   The snap election was called by PM Yingluck in order to find a way to end the protests but that hasn't happened.  The election was a desperate move to buy some time and hope that the protests would fade and thereby avoid a military coup.  The Saturn-Ascendant aspect reflects the growing intractability of the crisis and how there may be no easy solutions to it.  And now Mars is more active in the chart.  Mars represents conflict and violence and it is sitting on the 6th house cusp at 29 Virgo.  The 6th house itself represents conflict and the military.  But the real problem for Thailand is that, like Saturn, Mars is also slowing down ahead of its retrograde station on March 1st.  This means that the Mars influence will be much longer and stronger than it otherwise would.  Mars stations at 3 Libra which will still be fairly close to the 6th cusp.  This is an indication that violence will continue to occur well into March as Mars moves backward over the cusp at 29 Virgo and then the natal Rahu at 25 Virgo. 

So this double station of malefics just one day apart on March 1st and 2nd is likely to hit Thailand quite hard.  This double station of astrology's two worst planets -- Mars and Saturn -- is extremely rare and may correlate with events and conditions of great hardship and suffering.  Thailand's bad luck in 2014 is that these planets will come to a full stop in the sky in close proximity to key points in its natal chart.

It seems very likely that the protests, the stalemate and the sporadic violence will continue until March at least when Mars and Saturn reverse direction and begin to back away from their respective aspects to the Ascendant.   Perhaps the more important question is whether there will be a coup.  The military occupies a central role in Thai society and politics and it has intervened several times in the past during moments of crisis after negotiations and compromise had failed.  The horoscope of the 1932 military coup that ended the absolute monarchy and began the modern era of Thai politics reveals a similar level of affliction.  Transiting Saturn is sitting just two degrees away from the 6th house -- the house of conflict.  Transiting Mars is also active in this chart as it is stationing very close to the 5th house cusp (1 Libra).  It is also exactly opposite unpredictable Uranus.

In a sense, the 1932 chart is not just a secondary chart for Thailand as a whole, it is also the natal chart for Thai military coups.  The September 2006 coup that ousted Thaksin occurred when the chart was under intense transit pressure.  Pluto was exactly opposite the Ascendant symbolizing the radical transformation of society from a traditional form of governance to a modern state.   Rahu was exactly conjunct the 10th house cusp symbolizing the disruption of leaders.   Finally, Saturn was conjunct Jupiter representing loss of the traditional guru or King-like figure (Thaksin).  On a more positive note, Jupiter was also in close aspect with Mercury indicating some measure of relief and resolution as the coup brought an end to a period of ongoing tension and opposition to the Thaksin administration.

So what are the chances for a coup in the near term?  I don't think many analysts think a coup is imminent, although it is in the back of everyone's mind.  There may be a fatalistic attitude toward it, as if it is only a matter of time before each side in the conflict runs out of patience and options and ratchet up the levels of violence.  A suddenly higher level of violence would likely bring out the tanks as the military honours its mandate to keep domestic peace. While the afflictions to the chart are considerable, I'm not convinced they are sufficient to suggest a coup is around the corner.  It's still possible, but it is not something that jumps out from the chart. 

Another major alignment occurs in June and July when Saturn and Uranus are in exact alignment at 22 degrees in their respective signs.  Saturn will station direct at 22 Libra and this will aspect the Lagnesh Mercury in the 1932 chart.  I would expect some significant developments at that time that could point to a resolution of the crisis.  Transiting Rahu also aspects the Ascendant at that time, so that usually means change will be afoot.  Will it be a coup or will the government ride out the storm and find a compromise that keeps them in power?  It's hard to say given the lack of timed horoscopes for the major players in the crisis.  Interestingly, this Saturn-Uranus pattern will align with the the natal Sun of opposition leader Suthep Thaugsuban (July 7, 1949, no time).  This is usually a fairly stressful and difficult alignment so he could experience a setback at this time.  That is perhaps a small hint that the government may prevail, but I would not be comfortable making that prediction.  There are other possible scenarios that could see opposition leader Suthep suffering a setback even after a coup that deposes the government. 


Financial Market Update

Global stocks generally retreated last week as worries over the stability of emerging economies continued to undermine confidence.  US markets fell about 1% while Indian stocks slumped 3%.  The pullback was in line with expectations as I thought that the midweek Mars-Saturn alignment would likely turn the week negative overall.  As expected, Indian stocks fell further as the Mars-Saturn pattern activated a key point in the BSE horoscope. 

This week could be more of the same as Mars enters Libra on Tuesday.  Some early week gains are perhaps possible but the second half of the week looks more bearish.

Global stocks fall sharply on Argentine devaluation

(26 January 2014)  US and European stocks plunged Friday on worries of a possible emerging markets meltdown following the surprise devaluation of the beleaguered Argentine Peso.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst week in months losing more than 3% and closing below 16,000.  Indian stocks fared better as encouraging domestic data continued to fuel optimism.  Although the Sensex did get caught up in Friday's global downdraft, it closed modestly higher for the week at 21,133. 

The extent of Friday's decline was somewhat surprising, although I did expect negativity to manifest in the second half of the week given the Mercury-Mars aspect.  The first half was more positive as I thought the effects of the approaching Venus direct station opposite bullish Jupiter would likely put a floor under stocks.  The somewhat different outcomes in Asia vs. US/Europe is partially attributable to the specific natal charts in question.  The chart of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) was not clearly under pressure by the bad aspects this week. 

However, the NYSE chart was much more afflicted due to the aspect between transiting Mars and the natal Moon.  In addition, transiting Ketu (South Lunar Node) is closing in on its conjunction with natal Saturn.  This is a potential source of instability in US markets in the coming weeks since Ketu moves quite slowly.  This means that Ketu's destabilizing influence on Saturn could spell some rough waters ahead. 

We can see similar problems emerging in the Frankfurt DAX chart which is the main stock exchange for Germany.  Transiting Saturn is in the 4th house as it slows down ahead of its retrograde station on 2 March.  It will station at 29 Libra -- very close to the exact equal 4th house cusp at 25 Libra.  Saturn in the 4th house is usually unhelpful although it lasts a long time so it tends to express its negativity only periodically.  We can see that Friday's big decline occurred as transiting Mars and Mercury lined up in aspect with the Ascendant and with natal Mercury.  Mars was the critical factor is creating the conditions for a decline in this instance. 

The nodes are also in play here as transiting Ketu is gradually forming a close trine aspect to the natal Saturn-Uranus conjunction at 4-5 Sagittarius.  This aspect will be exact in early March so that is one indication that the financial markets could be entering a period of volatility in the coming weeks.  To be sure, Jupiter is very much in the mix in the DAX horoscope since it is conjunct the Sun.  That is usually a very bullish influence that fuels optimism.  Given the presence of both positive and negative influences in this chart, it may mean that markets will fluctuate widely and sharply in both directions in the coming weeks.  However, my sense is Saturn may end up trumping Jupiter here.  That would be increase downside risk for the time being.

This week again seems somewhat divided down the middle.  The early week may bring some optimism as the Moon conjoins Venus and thus may tease out more of that positive buying energy.  But things could change by midweek as Mars aligns with Saturn.   Both of these malefic planets are slowing ahead of their respective stations, so the aspect's effect could linger for several days.  This may be felt more strongly in the Indian market.  I would not assume an overly negative stance, however, since the Venus station on Friday still offers some reservoir of hope.