Obama's Happy Halloween?

The presidential race is coming right down to the wire now.  Polls show Mitt Romney with an average 1% lead in the national popular vote but Obama continues to enjoy a slight edge in terms of the electoral college.  As expected, Obama did come out on top in the last debate.  As I suggested in the previous week's post, the respective campaign charts showed that Obama's chart was being strongly influenced by benefics Mercury and Venus.  By contrast, Romney's campaign chart was under a difficult Mars aspect.   It was intriguing to see how well these campaign charts appeared to coincide with the debate outcomes. 

I would expect Obama to have a fairly good week this week, especially around Wednesday and Thursday.  On those days, the Moon transits sidereal Taurus where it will conjoins his natal position.  If we look at his relocated chart for Washington, DC, we can see how his Moon moves to the 1st house.  What's important to note here is how the current transit of Taurus will highlight to favourable trine (120 degree) aspects with Jupiter and Venus.  Jupiter (21 Taurus) is also in Taurus where it is exactly trining the Midheaven (10th house cusp).  The Midheaven is connected with status and public profile and this Jupiter aspect tends to benefit those areas of life.  The Moon transit will tend to underline this influence and bring it out more strongly.  Similarly, Venus (9 Virgo) will be trine his natal Moon (10 Taurus) which is a favourable influence often associated with positive social contacts (with the population) and general happiness.  The transiting Moon will also punctuate this transit and tend to make it stronger in its effects in the middle of this week.  Natal Jupiter (7 Capricorn) will also help to bring out the more positive sides to these Venus and Moon transits since they will form a rough grand trine pattern where each planet is separated by 120 degrees. 

I'm not sure where this boost for Obama will come from.  Perhaps it will come from improved poll numbers.  Or perhaps hurricane Sandy will somehow work to his advantage.  The storm is expected to severely damage the Northeast.  Such disasters can be politically significant, as George Bush knows all too well.  While he benefited enormously from the 9/11 attacks after his visit to Ground Zero, his administration was pilloried for its weak and incompetent response to hurricane Katrina.  If Obama tours the damage and shows him in a strong and compassionate leadership role, then that could work out positively for him.  Mars may be a helpful planet for him this week as it is his 11th house ruler (Scorpio), and it will be exactly conjunct his equal 11th house cusp (24 Scorpio).  The 11th house represents gains and opportunities.   But since Mars is involved here, that may suggest gains (11th house) may come from conflict and destruction (Mars).  This is likely overstating the natural qualities of Mars, but it is a plausible enough scenario given the approaching storm.

So there is some evidence to suggest that Halloween won't be all that scary for President Obama.  The planets may well have some treats in store for him.

Meanwhile in the markets last week, stocks generally declined on more reports of slowing corporate earnings.  US stocks fell by almost 2% as the Dow closed at 13,107.  The Indian market also lost some ground as the Sensex eased back to 18,625.  This negative outcome was in keeping with expectations as I thought the dual effects of the Sun-Saturn conjunction and the entry of Venus into Virgo would likely dampen enthusiasm for risk.   Venus is debilitated in Virgo and its entry into sidereal Virgo on Tuesday coincided exactly with the largest decline of the week. 

This week could see more downside in the early going as Monday's Full Moon is often bearish.  In addition, we can see that Mercury forms a difficult square aspect with Neptune and Venus aligns with Saturn.  Gains are perhaps somewhat more likely heading into Thursday's Venus-Uranus aspect.

Obama wins second debate; third debate on Monday

The US presidential race remains as tight as ever with national polls showing just a 1% difference between Obama and Romney with less than three weeks to go before the vote.  As I suggested in last week's post, Obama did emerge as the slight winner in the last debate according to most polls. In keeping with the stronger influence of Mars at the time of the debate, the contest was much more spirited and argumentative than the first debate.  Romney's chart suffered from an unfortunate placement from transiting Mars and hence he was unable to harness the energy of the fiery red planet as Obama did.

The third and final debate is slated for Monday night in Boca Raton, Florida.  In my opinion, the stars again favour Obama.  At the same time, I would admit that their respective birth horoscopes are perhaps more equivocal than I would like to see.  Transiting Venus (29 Leo) is exactly conjunct his natal Mars and this is not necessarily a good combination.  At best, it may suggest a love (Venus) or fighting or conflict (Mars).  It does not bode well for establishing friendship and goodwill, although we should recognize that is probably the last thing of Obama's mind.   The Sun (6 Libra) and Saturn (8 Libra) are lining up in a potentially difficult square aspect with Mercury (9 Cancer).  This could inhibit Obama's ability to clearly express himself as Saturn often distorts or denies the promise of the planet it associates with. Saturn-Mercury contacts are also prominent in situations of frustration and disappointment so there could be some elements of the debate that will be problematic for Obama.  It's definitely not a good influence, although Saturn is moving quite slowly here so it is possible it may not directly affect his performance on Monday. (See last week's post for these natal charts)

Romney's chart actually has a much better placement for that transiting Venus opposite the Sun.  The problem here is that it is a bit past its opposition so it may not do him much good.  And that transiting Mars (17  Scorpio) is still squaring all his Scorpio planets and will be exactly squaring the midpoint of Mars and Mercury.  This may or may not be decisive, but it does not look particularly helpful.

A more telling difference can be found in the charts of both campaigns, and more specifically in the relocated campaign charts for Boca Raton.  Transiting Mars (17 Scorpio) opposes the Sun in the Romney campaign chart (2 June 2011 1.16 pm).  This is a symbolic combination for confrontation, especially ones that go against the interests of the campaign.  If this chart works, it does look like Obama will be on the offensive here and it will cause Romney more headaches.  What is potentially worse for Romney is that when his campaign chart is relocated to Boca Raton, that transiting Mars moves to the exact bottom of the chart and therefore squares up against his ascendant.  This is rarely a positive set up.  Romney may well be feisty himself, but it seems it may work against his best interests somehow. 

By contrast, the Obama campaign chart brings up the Mercury-Venus aspect to the ascendant.  Mercury is rising at 29 Libra in this chart putting the focus on communication and intelligence.  To be sure, Rahu (North Lunar Node) is also just three degrees away so that is one potentially complicating factor.  Venus is also exactly aspecting the ascendant from the 11th house of gains.  This is another excellent placement and suggests that the outcome is more likely to favour Obama.  The Mercury-Venus combination suggests Obama may come across as more intelligent and speak with more grace and even humour.

To be sure, these campaign charts are one step removed from the candidates' natal charts, so this analysis is somewhat more speculative than it otherwise would be.  And the absence of any strong indications for success in Obama's natal chart suggests that this prediction for another Obama debate win definitely deserves an asterisk or two.

Meanwhile, stocks were mostly unchanged last week as shrinking corporate earnings offset some encouraging data out of China.  In New York, Friday's sharp decline left the Dow flat on the week at 13,343.  Indian stocks were also neutral last week as the Sensex held its own at 18,682.  Gold slumped to $1720 as the Sun entered sidereal Libra, its sign of debilitation.  Overall, this outcome was not unexpected as I thought the aspects looked fairly mixed. 

This week may tilt more negatively, however, as Venus enters sidereal Virgo, its sign of debilitation on Tuesday.  Some gains may be more likely in the early week, however. Thursday's Sun-Saturn conjunction would also suggest growing caution and pessimism.  This is also likely to create more declines for gold as both the Sun and Venus are debilitated until mid-November.

US Presidentail race tightens; Mercury turns retrograde on election day

As the polls tighten in the US presidential race, it may be a good time to speculate how that Mercury retrograde station on election day might affect the outcome on November 6.  As I've discussed previously, Mercury will turn retrograde on the day of the election. The reversal of Mercury's direction on election day suggests the possibility of confusion and uncertainty around the outcome.  The logic here is fairly straightforward.  Mercury is a planet that symbolizes communication.  When Mercury is strong and otherwise unafflicted, our thoughts and ideas can be exchanged more or less clearly and rationally.   However, when Mercury ceases its forward motion and begins to move backward in the sky, then we may become more prone to misperception and miscommunication.  This tendency towards ineffective or ambiguous communication is likely heightened around the time of the stations where Mercury changes its direction.  With between 3 or 4 retrograde cycles per year, that works out to 6-8 such Mercury stations where this order-subverting energy is at its theoretical maximum.  Perhaps the most well-known example of this phenomenon was in 2000 when Mercury also reversed its direction on election day (it turned direct) and the US entered a strangely protracted period of political uncertainty when the winner of the election remained unknown for 5 weeks until a Supreme Court decision finally awarded the election to George Bush.

While it is always possible we could see a replay of the 2000 election with state-wide recounts and legal intervention, there are other possibilities to consider as well.  This week's polls suggest that Romney has pulled into a national lead of about 1%.  However, Obama remains ahead in the electoral college count due to his more concentrated support in swing states such as Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado.  Some writers have discussed the scenario whereby Romney could win the overall popular vote but Obama would win the electoral college and hence the presidency.  Such an electoral college/popular vote split is still quite unlikely, but if the election were held today that would likely be the outcome.  But the problem here is that scenario may not be sufficiently uncertain to fulfill the promise of this tricky-looking Mercury retrograde station.  Even if Obama did win under those circumstances, it would not create any uncertainty since it would adhere to the rules of the game.  It would likely further undermine his legitimacy in the second term, however, as Republicans would become more extreme in their opposition to Obama.  Gridlock in Washington might well intensify (if that's possible) under this scenario. 

Looking at the US horoscope for election day, we can that the potential problems extend beyond just the Mercury retrograde station.  At the time of the election, Mercury will station at 10 Scorpio, which is almost exactly on the 12th house cusp of the 6.30 chart.  Clearly, one does not want to over-emphasize such house placements when the accuracy of the USA chart is still in question.  And yet, this is definitely a more difficult placement for Mercury since the 12th house is broadly negative and concerns confinement and foreign matters, among other things.  From this placement, it is possible that there may be some noteworthy foreign dimension to the outcome, up to an including foreign interference.  Of course, Saturn is also in close aspect with Mercury on election night and hence Saturn will sit on the 11th house of gains in early November.  Saturn is often negative in its influence so this could signal difficult economic implications from the election.  An indecisive or disputed election would likely hurt the US credit rating since bond rating agencies would correctly surmise that a disputed election result would reduce the likelihood of co-operation on the fiscal cliff that threatens the country on December 31.  Rahu is also involved here as it is in a close 120 degree trine aspect to natal Mercury in the US chart.  While Rahu to Mercury aspects can mark an occasion of novel thinking and intellectual breakthroughs, they are also commonly found in times of confusion.  In that sense, the Rahu influence on Mercury is a very close echo of the energy contained in the Mercury retrograde station.  Given the afflicted nature of this chart at this time, I think the more  negative interpretation of Rahu-Mercury is more likely.

Perhaps more worrying is the close opposition aspect between Mars (28 Scorpio) and its natal placement at 0 Gemini.  Such hard Mars to Mars aspects are frequently correlated with situations of conflict so it seems quite likely that the election will generate some hard feelings among the losers.  There has been some mention of possible civil unrest after this election as passions are running quite high.  I would expect more of a Mars affliction here if the civil unrest was going to be a major problem.  As it is, the Mars to Mars transit is only in force for a few days.  That may not be strong enough to correlate with some bleaker scenarios of widespread violence.  Therefore, my guess is we are likely to see more harsh talk and inflamed passions than any actual violent action.  With Neptune still closely conjunct the US natal Moon, I would expect those feelings and emotions will be running close to the surface as the ideal image of America will be thrust into the foreground around this election result.  Conservatives are convinced that Obama is trying to remake America into some kind of socialist society that violates its constitution and founding principles.  No doubt this kind of talk will persist and possibly increase after the election.

The bottom line here is that I think there is a good chance that we will see some significant complications on election night that will remain unresolved in the days afterwards.  It seems likely that any post-election scenario will be more disruptive and uncertain than the electoral college/popular vote split discussed earlier.  Just what that might be is hard to say.  It does seem possible that the rancor from the fiercely fought election campaign is unlikely to go away any time soon.  This is likely to affect the ability of the US government to act decisively on its pressing economic and budgetary issues in the post-election period.  I would also expect this contentious result and/or stalemate will negatively affect stock markets.  Another term of an Obama presidency could be neutral for markets, however.  While corporate spending is down due to the perceived threat of tax increases and the impact of Obamacare, the higher levels of government spending from an Obama administration would likely be stimulative for the economy and the stock market.  Furthermore, if Obama is re-elected (as I still expect he will), then Bernanke's loose money policy is likely to continue.  Quantitative easing has been generally good for stocks, so it seems likely that if Obama re-appoints Bernanke in early 2013, we can look forward to more such stimulative money printing from the Federal Reserve.

On that score, the markets were down last week as corporate earnings guidance have reduced profit projections for 2013.  The Dow was down about 2% on the week closing at 13,329.  Indian stocks also lost ground as the Sensex fell to 18,675.  Gold also tumbled to $1755 as the spectre of recession reduced inflation dangers.  While I was uncertain about last week, I wondered when Jupiter's retrograde period would begin to weaken sentiment. It may have begun already as stocks have trended lower since its retrograde station on October 4.

This week could see more fallout from Jupiter's reversal although it should be noted there will be some positive short term aspects, too.  On Tuesday, Mercury and Venus will align with Jupiter so that suggests the possibility of some early week gains.  However, the Sun's enters sidereal Libra on Wednesday.  Not only is the Sun debilitated in Libra, but it will move into closer conjunction with Saturn in the days ahead.  This is another plausibly negative influence on stocks. Gold is also likely to weaken further as a result of this debilitated Sun in the weeks ahead. 

Transits for Wednesday 17 October 2012  9.30 a.m. New York

Israel draws a red line on Iran

The long-simmering tension between Israel and Iran was in the spotlight again this week as the leaders of both countries addressed the United Nations.  Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu delivered a stern warning that Iran was getting dangerously close to having an operational nuclear weapon.  Both Israel and US are on record saying that such a development would be unacceptable and would be sufficient grounds for launching a military strike, regardless of the consequences. For his part, Iranian President Achmadinejad was no less forceful in his speech and defended his country's nuclear program as a peaceful one that was directed towards energy production.  Any bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities would likely destabilize the Middle East and cause a spike in oil prices and a significant decline in the stock market.  While Achmadinejad reiterated his pledge to retaliate in the face of a of Israeli or US strike, it is somewhat less clear how strong any Iranian counter strike might be.  While a full-fledged war is possible, a limited exchange of air strikes on strategic targets is probably a more likely outcome.   But just how close are these two countries to some kind of military action? 

The horoscope of the Iranian Islamic Republic (Apr 1 1979 3 p.m.) definitely looks more active these days.  The close Mercury-Mars conjunction is currently under the aspect of transiting Rahu (North Lunar Node).  Mars symbolizes war and aggression of course, while Mercury is connected with communication and speech.  Perhaps this conjunction is one reason why bellicose speeches are the natural tendency of Iranian leaders.  The Rahu influence here is destabilizing, however, and needs to be taken very seriously.  Rahu is often associated with situations that break the boundaries and seek to upset the status quo.  To be sure, this includes any sort of military incident since an attack would interrupt the status quo.  At the same time, it's important to remember that it isn't necessarily an astrological signature for war.  It may simply reflect the war (Mars) of words (Mercury) that has flared up once again at the UN in recent days.  On the basis of this aspect, there's a good chance that October will likely see rising tensions as transiting Mars will oppose the Moon (the people, national emotion).

The real problem here is that the Rahu transit is quite slow moving so it will influence that Mercury-Mars conjunction in the Iran chart for several months.  This affliction therefore increases the likelihood for some kind of eruption of violence over the next four or five months.  While the chart looks pretty stressed now, I would think the early part of 2013 could be a more likely window when some kind of attack or conflict occurs.  Transiting Saturn will station in February in a close semi-square aspect to this Mercury-Mars conjunction.  Saturn will also exactly conjoin the IC (unequal 4th house cusp) in the proclamation horoscope.  This increases the probability of some kind of destructive event around that time frame.  The nodes are also angular at this time.  Overall, the Iran chart looks more troubled in early 2013 than it does now.  I would therefore expect an attack and an exchange of hostilities is more likely to happen then. 

The Israel horoscope also looks agitated in October.  While Mars (5 Leo) is not closely afflicted by any transiting planets, we can see that transiting Saturn is approaching the ascendant suggesting a time of heavy responsibility.  We can also see that the Sun (government, leaders) is under stress at the moment in this chart as Ketu is approaching its conjunction in the 1st degree of Taurus.  Transiting Mars is also opposite the Sun so this may reflect some criticism of Netanyahu's over-the-top presentation at the UN with a red marker and a cartoon-like diagram of a bomb.  Perhaps bellicosity knows no borders. 

On Friday 6 October Mercury will join Saturn on the ascendant of this chart while Mars and Neptune will aspect natal Mars.  This suggests a significant event, although I'm less inclined to be it will be a military action.  Mars-Neptune is often connected with harm and damage, but it is often indirect.  Embarrassment or some kind of scandal is common under this transit.  This does not seem like it would suggest an imminent attack.  It does not look positive, however, so I wonder if it will be diplomatic setback or some other lesser problem. Israel's chart also looks active at the end of October when the Sun and Saturn conjoin very close to the ascendant at 7 Libra.  Libra is the sign of debilitation for the Sun, so it is possible that Netanyahu may come under increased pressure at that time.  Again, this does not really look like a physical attack on the country but rather some situation that calls his leadership into question. 

Meanwhile, most financial markets slipped last week as anti-austerity protests in Europe raised doubts about the implementation of the bailout program.  US markets fell more than 1% with the Dow closing at 13,579. Indian stocks fared somewhat better, however, as hopes for further reform bolstered sentiment.  The Sensex was largely unchanged closing at 18,752.  I thought we might have seen a little more upside around the early week Mercury-Jupiter aspect but my overall expectation for a mixed market was not too far off. The negative influence of the Venus-Mars aspect broadly coincided with the intraweek low on Wednesday in the US and Thursday in India.

This week looks like we could see bigger moves in both directions.  That Mars-Rahu conjunction is likely to depress the mood in the early going, with Monday looking especially vulnerable.  The Venus-Neptune aspect on Tuesday and Wednesday would appear to offer a more positive spin on things, although the presence of Saturn is a bit of a wild card.  Thursday looks somewhat less positive as the Moon-Mars opposition spells trouble and hassles.  Friday's Mercury-Saturn conjunction creates a similar multi-planet pattern with Neptune and could produce a significant news event and large market reaction.  Friday will see the release of the latest monthly US jobs report, so that will likely be the catalyst.   While Saturn is usually negative, it can switch sides when it is associated with more positive planets. 

Transits for Monday 1 October 2012 9.30 a.m. New York

The Astrology of QE3: third time the charm?

Is the third time the charm?  The debate continues about QE3 as investors weigh the implications of the Fed's latest round of stimulus announced on September 13.  Will it really give a boost to employment or is it destined to be swamped by the forces of global recession and simply cause more inflation? Despite the fact that its stated aim is to increase asset values like stocks, US markets were fairly tepid last week as traders took a wait and see attitude after the initial show of enthusiasm on the day of its launch.  Not exactly the rousing reception that Ben Bernanke might have hoped for as the Fed is now playing for keeps.  If QE3 does not kick start employment in the next 3-6 months, then the Fed will begin to lose credibility.  It will increasingly be seen as "out of bullets" and unable to do anything to help the economy after trying three different QE programs.  Some analysts are already suggesting that the Fed is fighting a losing battle of diminishing returns and can only hope for a very limited growth effect with QE3.

In last week's market post, I offered a few ideas of why this latest round of QE was less likely to have the same big impact on markets as its predecessors did.  I wanted to expand that idea this week by going right to the astrological source, as it were: the horoscope of QE3 itself.  Ben Bernanke publicly launched QE3 in Washington at 12.30 pm on September 13.   This is the chart of the "birth" of the Fed's policy to buy $40 Billion of mortgage-backed securities every month until unemployment improves.  It may seem a bit of a stretch to capture the essence and future trajectory of this program simply by examining the planets at the time of its announcement.  There are so many possible other astrological factors involved, as I alluded to last week. And yet if astrology works at all, the planets at the beginning or "birth" of any project should reveal of the nature of the thing. It may not say everything we need to know about QE3 but it should reflect something about its both its 1) essential character and 2) possible futures and eventual outcome. 

 

QE3 Announcement: 13 September 2012 12.30 pm Washington, DC

A quick look at the chart shows why I bothered to risk my readers' scorn at yet another examination of this somewhat over-hyped and tired subject.  At the time of its announcement, Rahu, (the North Lunar Node) was exactly rising in early Scorpio.  The primary symbolism of Rahu includes 1) exaggeration and boundless acquisitiveness and 2) distortion and disruption.  Well, that is about as good a description of QE3 as one can imagine.  The stimulus measure aims to boost economic activity and pushing money out of otherwise safe assets like bonds and CDs into risky assets like stocks and commodities.  QE3 aims to depress interest rates and thus penalizing savers with near zero percent interest rates.  In other words, the road to recovery is through more borrowing, spending, and buying risky assets.  (That's funny - I thought that's how we got into this mess in the first place)  That is the perfect picture of Rahu's penchant for greed and unlimited ambition.  Bernanke doesn't want Americans to put money in the bank or in savings bonds; he wants them to invest it in a more active way such as the stock market.   What could be more Rahuvian than that?

Scorpio is ruled by Mars and Mars is placed in the 12th house of loss with Saturn.  To put it politely, this is a challenging placement.  Worse still, Saturn sits almost exactly on the equal 12th house cusp (4 Libra) thus intensifying the affliction to the 12th house of loss and isolation. On one hand, this placement may describe some of the fundamental nature of QE3 as a program which will by definition increase the debt load of the US government, a possible implication of the 12th house.  QE3 also owes its very existence to the fact that the economy is in trouble, which is very much a 12th house matter.  But these placements may also describe not just the nature of QE3, but the outcome of the thing also.  In other words, the clear 12th house emphasis in this horoscope suggests that it is more likely to fail to achieve its stated intentions.  The fact that there are two malefics in the 12th house suggests that efforts to stimulate growth may only end up increasing losses.  But we also need to examine the rest of the chart.

To see the probable success or failure of any endeavour we also have to look at the 11th house of gains.  If the 11th house and its ruler are strong, then there is a better chance that efforts will be successful.  If the 11th is unremarkable, however, and there is weakness or affliction to the 1st house and the Sun and Moon, then success is less likely.  Here we have Mercury in the first degree of Virgo -- a very good placement since Mercury is said to be exalted in Virgo. However, Mercury comes under the fairly close trine aspect of Ketu (South Lunar Node).  Like its nodal brother Rahu, Ketu also is an unreliable planet that can introduce an element of change and disruption.  In terms of ascertaining QE3's essential character, the influence of Ketu on the 11th house ruler Mercury suggests "gains through unusual means".  This seems like an apt description of trying to stimulate growth by printing money.  The Fed can no longer lower interest rates since they are at zero already.  Quantitative easing is therefore a kind of desperate last resort to avoid a deflationary spiral and liquidity trap that ends in depression.  But since Ketu is considered a malefic planet, its influence on Mercury may not be positive and therefore we can surmise that this affliction may impact the outcome of QE3 also.  This is where quality can evolve into quantity and the essence contains the seed of the outcome. (hat tip to Hegel!)  Given the difficult 12th house emphasis, this Ketu influence should be seen as unhelpful to the long term viability of QE3. 

On the plus side, both the Sun and Moon are in the their signs and in favourable houses, the 10th and 9th respectively.  At minimum, this says something about the high profile that QE3 may enjoy.  The Fed's moves are increasingly dissected and discussed in mainstream media, so there is a growing familiarity with this previously arcane term from economics.  While both the Sun and Moon are strong in this chart, I'm not sure that they provide enough strength to affect the future outcome.

 

The other way to assess possible future outcomes, of course, is to look at transit hits to this chart. At the outset, we should consider what transit hits may mean in real terms.  At the most general level, one would expect transits involving benefic planets like Venus and Jupiter to bring success to QE3.  Success could be measured in different ways, but one would think it includes boosting asset values (e.g. stocks) as well as boosting growth rates (GDP) and employment.  Transit hits by malefic planets like Saturn may signal troubles with QE3.  These would presumably involve failure to achieve its stated goals and could be associated with falling stock prices and falling or stagnant employment.  At the same time, it may also mean that QE3 is coming under criticism for other reasons such as obstacles to implementation, theoretical justification or other facets that may not be directly related to economic results.  In this sense, it is possible that afflictions to the QE3 horoscope may not directly correlate with more economic problems.  Bottom line, I think there should be some correlation but I do acknowledge that it is conceivable that outcomes may need to be defined quite generously.

That said, the upcoming transits to this chart do not look good at all.   Transiting Saturn will exactly square Venus in December.  Venus represents social connections and possibly popularity in this case, so we should expect QE3 to come under greater attack under this Saturn transit.  Since Venus is placed in the 9th house of higher knowledge, this Saturn affliction could correlate with a questioning of its theoretical basis and legitimacy.  At the same time, transiting Ketu will exactly aspect Mercury, the lord of the all-important 11th house of gains. This definitely could mean some headwinds for QE3.  A decline in economic activity or the stock market is definitely one possibility at this time. Saturn will then move past and then go retrograde in early 2013 and station very close to an exact square in July 2013.  Interestingly, this will coincide with another double whammy as transiting Rahu conjoins Mars in the 12th house.  This may correlate with a sudden or shocking loss (12th house).  The extended Saturn transit to Venus in the 9th house may well symbolize more questions about the wisdom of the whole notion of quantitative easing and money printing.

Overall, the transits look difficult for the next year or so and would tend to argue against a quick or effective turnaround in the US economy.  Bernanke has already stated that if QE3 does not produce results, he will take additional measures.  In other words, QE4.  Given the prolonged stress of the QE3 horoscope in mid-2013, it may be necessary for Bernanke to make another such move around that time.  Perhaps he will finally get that helicopter.

Thus far, most global markets have not taken QE3 to heart.  After an enthusiastic rally on QE3's inaugural day, US Stocks edged slightly lower last week as many investors are pondering the likelihood of a slowdown in China.  The Dow closed at 13,579 while the S&P 500 finished the week at 1460.   Indian stocks fared better, however, as the government's reform of the retail sector put investors in a buying mood on Friday.  The Sensex rose 2% closing at 18,752 while the Nifty ended the week at 5691.  I thought we would get more downside on the midweek Sun-Rahu-Saturn pattern, although Indian stocks did trend lower into Thursday.  Friday's gain coincided closely with the Venus-Jupiter aspect. 

This week looks fairly mixed.  Mercury and Jupiter form a bullish looking aspect on Tuesday and Wednesday so that could push stocks higher in the early going.  But the Venus-Mars aspect looks more troublesome and may produce some down movement, especially around Thursday when the aspect is closest.

 

Transits for Tuesday 25 September 2012 9.30 a.m. New York

 

Bernanke launches QE3; but will it work?

After months of hints, testimony and warnings, Ben Bernanke finally pulled the trigger and announced QE3.  This latest attempt to kick start the US economy will buy $40 Billion of mortgage-backed securities every month in an effort to lower interest rates and help boost the moribund housing market.  Perhaps most importantly, Bernanke committed to this program indefinitely until there was significant employment  growth and the economy was back on its feet.  In this sense, QE3 is not a one-time thing.  It is QE Forever now as the Fed is showing signs of frustration (or perhaps desperation?) with the inability of the economy to get going.  Such quantitative easing measures are intended to lower interest rates to boost lending and help to move money into riskier assets like stocks.  According to theory, this should boost the housing market and increase economic activity and thereby boost employment.  It may also boost the stock market and thus enhance the overall 'wealth effect' of the population and stimulate more consumer spending. 

Well, that's the theory anyway.  In practice it may have not have much of an effect.  Interest rates are already near historic lows, so a few tenths of a percentage point difference is unlikely to further entice prospective home buyers. The latest estimates are that QE3 may only end up increasing GDP by half a percentage point over the next year.  That is unlikely to make a major difference to hiring.  And inflation is likely to become more of a problem both domestically and around the world now with this latest bit of money printing.  While narrowly defined (and carefully massaged) official "core inflation" may stay fairly low, food and fuel prices are likely to rise and will make the lives of lower income people more difficult.  And of course, quantitative easing increases America's debt load. Where does the $40 Billion come from after all? Well, the Fed prints it "out of thin air" as the saying goes, and it goes on its balance sheet as a liability. 

While Bernanke may have had little choice, one wonders where it will all end.  The US looks increasingly vulnerable to another recession as the Fed is quickly running out of financial instruments to prop up the economy.   From an astrological perspective, the US horoscope should not give Ben Bernanke much reason for optimism. At the outset, I should note that there is no consensus about the correct birth time for the USA.  It is one of the most contested horoscopes there is.  I tend to default towards the 6.30 p.m. chart pioneered by James Kelleher, although I am open-minded about it and do refer to the 5.10 pm and the 2.21 pm chart also.  Given the uncertainty about the exact time of the chart, it is usually a good idea to focus more on planet-to-planet influences, rather than house placement and other chart features that are more dependent on the precise time.

Looking at the the 6.30 pm chart, we can see that QE3 was launched just as both Saturn and Rahu were aspecting Mercury, the planet of commerce and communication.  It is hard to imagine a more inauspicious planetary set-up as both Saturn and Rahu are considered malefic influences.  Saturn often has a depressive effect on the planets it aspects, so its square aspect to Mercury may be a reflection of ongoing pessimism about the economy and the prospects for success from this latest QE3 program. Indeed, there has been more questions raised about the effectiveness of the Fed's actions this time around.  While most acknowledge it will likely boost stocks and commodity prices, there is also more skepticism about its ultimate effects to actually increase employment and improve the lives of ordinary people.  Saturn may also be undermining the economy and the stock market in the short run while this aspect is still quite close. 

The Rahu aspect to Mercury suggests distortion and exaggeration, a probable reflection of the impact of QE3 on the whole notion of free markets.  As Senatorial candidate Elizabeth Warren recently noted in a speech at the DNC, "the game is rigged" against the average person.  Wall Street gets first dibs and leaves only crumbs for everybody else.  QE3 similarly puts money in the hands of bankers who are all too happy to unload non-performing loans to the Fed, while there is very little trickle down benefit to Main Street.  Bernanke would likely get a more stimulative effect if he simply gave the $40 Billion every month directly to the American people rather than funnel it to the banks.  QE3 therefore can be seen as a distortion of the real economy through central bank intervention that punishes savers and those on fixed incomes in an effort to reduce an onerous debt burden through inflation.  If you owe someone $100 and inflation is running at 10% per year, next year you will only have to repay him the equivalent of $90.  Inflation is a good deal for borrowers, but not for creditors.  This is what Germany tried to do in the 1920s after it was saddled with huge war debts.  It led to an inflationary spiral and economic collapse and ultimately paved the way for fascism.  That's not to say that the US will follow the same path, but debt-ridden countries are usually seduced by the inflation solution.

But Saturn and  Rahu will soon move past their aspects with Mercury.  The real longer term problem for the US economy is the combined effect of the Uranus and Pluto transits to Venus and Jupiter in the US chart.  Both are more difficult square (90 degree) aspects and promise a significant amount of dislocation and disruption of the status quo.  While we can't be sure what house Venus and Jupiter are really in, we do know that both of these benefic planets are associated with wealth and economy, among other things.  Therefore transit afflictions to Venus and Jupiter will tend to coincide with major adjustments in the economy.  Uranus and Pluto both represent change, albeit in somewhat different ways.  Uranus is sudden and energetic while Pluto is more plodding and deliberate.  Both Uranus and Pluto move very slowly, so these aspects have two or three more years before they will fully manifest.  Another recession looks fairly likely with these aspects, and we can also expect some re-organization of the economy.  If recession takes hold in the next year as I think it might, then the Fed will likely step up its efforts and print even more money.

Not surprisingly, stock markets rallied strongly on Bernanke's announcement.  US markets rose 2% on the week as the Dow closed at 13,593 -- it's highest level since 2007.  Indian markets were also buoyed by the news as the Sensex surged 4% finishing the week at 18,464.  Commodities also jumped 3% as crude oil touched $100 and gold closed near $1775.  This positive outcome was pretty much what I expected as the Venus influence last week was quite prominent.  I wasn't sure about the reaction to the Fed decision, although I thought the favorable sentiment could spill over into the end of the week.  Enthusiasm only faded somewhat by midday on Friday in the US.   While I thought the Fed would likely announce something. I was somewhat surprised by the extent of the Fed's commitment to debt purchases indefinitely.  Perhaps Bernanke was seeking to avoid another single, large number as in past QEs ($750 Billion) in favor of something that sounded more politically manageable ($40 Billion).

This week looks less positive for markets.  I am watching two things.  First, there is a Pluto direct station on Tuesday that happens to coincide with an exact square aspect with Uranus.  On paper, this has disruptive potential although it may require a third planet as catalyst.   Wednesday and Thursday will see a nasty-looking alignment of the Sun, Rahu and Saturn that would seem to foster pessimism.  Interestingly, Mercury will move into mutual aspect with Uranus-Pluto on Thursday and Friday.  There is a lot of energy there.  Overall, I would think there is a good case for a decline this week.

Transits for Thursday 20 September 2012 9.30 am New York

ECB's Draghi delivers; iPhone launches with Venus Wednesday

Stocks moved higher last week as the ECB's Mario Draghi delivered on his promise to intervene in the European bond market.   In New York, stocks rose by more than 2% with the Dow closing at 13,306 and the S&P 500 making a new high for the year finishing at 1437.  Indian markets followed suit as the Sensex gained 300 points on the week closing at 17,683 while the Nifty finished at 5342.  I thought we might have seen a little more early week downside on the Venus-Saturn aspect, although I did caution that the negativity could be fairly muted.  As expected, the second half of the week was more bullish as the Venus-Rahu and Sun-Jupiter aspects coincided closely with gains on Thursday and Friday. 

The ECB fulfilled market expectations last week as its bond buying program offered some hope that Europe could yet contain its ongoing debt crisis.  I had been fairly skeptical about the size of any major new stimulus program, so it's worth noting that Draghi did not produce the bazooka-like program that some analysts suggested with hard yield caps and the like.  He remained well within the ECB's stated mandate.  Moreover, the bond purchases will be sterilized and will not worsen the ECB's balance sheet.  In this way, Draghi was taking a page from the Bernanke playbook as the Fed Chair's Operation Twist in 2011 similarly embarked on sterilized bond purchases rather than an outright buying program as had characterized the more ambitious QE1 and QE2. 

All eyes are on Ben Bernanke and the Fed this week as many are expecting QE3 to be announced at its Thursday meeting. Friday's disappointing US jobs report has increased the likelihood for some Fed action, although it is unclear just what will be announced.  Will Bernanke unleash a bazooka?  Or will be attempt a more cautious and limited intervention?  Or indeed will be announce anything at all?  As I have suggested previously, I think a full-fledged bazooka-like QE program is quite unlikely at this point.  Jupiter does not seem strong enough at the moment for such a move. That leaves the two other options. Given his recent speech at Jackson Hole and the anemic jobs report, it would be somewhat disingenuous for him not to do anything.  So I suspect he will go with some kind of modest plan, perhaps limited in size and scope.  More politically safe sterilized bond purchases are therefore a possible route he could take.  I'm not certain what Bernanke will announce on Thursday, but I do think it is quite possible that the market reaction could be fairly tepid.

This week looks fairly bullish on paper.  Monday's Sun-Mercury conjunction is often a bullish influence, albeit with some caveats.  It usually signals a strong directional move, although it is less reliably bullish than aspects involving Jupiter or Venus.  The main planetary aspect this week occurs on Wednesday and Thursday as the aforementioned Venus forms a nice alignment with the Uranus-Pluto aspect.  This is one reason why we can expect stocks to stay fairly buoyant leading into the Fed meeting.  It is perhaps no coincidence that the long-awaited iPhone 5 release occurs on Wednesday just as the Moon (people, masses) conjoins Venus (happiness, luxury) and therefore highlights this wider combination with Uranus (technology) and Pluto (corporations).  This is a favourable planetary alignment that should make this a successful product.  The planets at the time of the Fed announcement on Thursday are somewhat equivocal.  Venus is just reaching its closest aspect while Mercury has just entered sidereal Virgo.  These are very bullish indications but it doesn't leave much left over for Friday.  So it is possible that the market could rise into the announcement and even extend its gains into the close. But it's harder to make that case for Friday.  I would therefore not be surprised if the market showed some weakness in the aftermath of the Fed announcement.