Asia rallies; US slips

US stocks failed to hang on to gains made earlier in the day in Asia on the heels of China's stimulus package. The Dow closed down abotu 1% to 8870 and the SPX ended the day at 919. In India, The Sensex was up 5% to 10,536 while the Nifty climbed to 3148.

One notes that the shift in sentiment may have been related to the changing Moon nakshtra from Saturn-ruled Uttara Bhdrapada to Mercury-ruled Revati. Saturn is aspected by benefic Jupiter, while Mercury occupies the often troublesome nakshatra of Swati. Tomorrow, the Moon enters Ashwini during the North American trading day.

Market Forecast -- week of Nov 10 - 14

US stocks fell 4% last week on a post-election sell off as the Dow closed at 8943 and the SPX at 930. I had expected a negative week on the basis of the Saturn-Uranus opposition, but was somewhat disappointed that the decline wasn't bigger. In retrospect, the market saw gains when the Venus-Saturn-Uranus alignment was most exact, so that it another reminder that the exactitude of transit aspects should not be given greater importance over other factors. One could make a better case for the triggering effects of Mercury moving into Rahu-ruled Swati on Wednesday as the explanation for the decline.

This week will see Jupiter (expansion) move into closer harmonic alignment with both Saturn (restriction) and Uranus (sudden energy). While Jupiter with Uranus often connotes sharp rises, Saturn's role in this multi-planet alignment may dampen market enthusiasm. We may also see subtle sentiment shifts in some sectors as both Venus and Mars have just changed signs. Venus has moved into Sagittarius to join Jupiter and this may assist the consumer sector in a general way. Mars has now entered Scorpio, a sign it rules, and should therefore be regarded as a stronger planet. Of course, strength alone is neither positive or negative for the market, but can indicate that Mars has a greater say in market direction. By virtue of entering Scorpio, Mars has now moved into a tense alignment with Saturn and Uranus which now occupy signs 4 signs away. This aspect is still far from being exact so it would be mistaken to ascribe too much influence to it. As the aspect becomes more exact, we can expect the negative side of Mars to be expressed through declines. For the moment, though, it seems relatively unafflicted, so it is unlikely to push prices down. Another potentially significant aspect this week is the conjunction of Venus and Pluto that occurs on Wednesday. Venus can be seen to represent money in this case, while Pluto symbolizes power and control. On the face of it, this may be a bullish influence for the market. However, sudden falls following the conjunction are common, and indeed one cannot assume that they will correspond exactly to the moment of conjunction itself.

Against my expectations, Indian stocks rose last week as the Sensex closed at 9964 and the Nifty at 2973. While prices did fall towards the end of the week, I was surprised by the extent of early week rise. Market movements reflected the NSE horoscope quite well as markets fell Wednesday and Thursday as transiting Sun conjoined the natal Rahu. While I did not foresee Friday's rise, it was also plausibly indicated through transiting Venus conjoining the NSE ascendant. My error was in ascribing too much influence to the simultaneous transit of Mars to the 12th house cusp of this chart. With transiting Ketu moving away from the natal Mars, it is not unreasonable to believe that the worst losses of the market are now behind us in the short term. This aspect was exactly conjunct in October when the losses were at their steepest. Transiting Sun comes to the natal Jupiter this week so some gains seem likely, although perhaps they will be subject to rapid profit taking as Mercury will conjoin malefic Rahu late in the week.

Most global currencies rallied against the US dollar last week as the banking situation normalized and confidence returned. The Euro even traded above 1.30 earlier in the week and closed Friday's session at 1.27. This was much stronger than I had expected. It seems that the US dollar rally may be over for the short term. I think more gains are possible this week as the Venus-Pluto conjunction may provide a boost for an acquisitiveness thus boosting demand in local currencies. The Rupee is also likely to benefit from this improvement in sentiment.

Crude oil fell back to $61 last week as transiting Mars afflicted the ascendant in the Futures chart. As Mars moves away from this sensitive point, we can expect crude to rise, perhaps sharply. One possible unknown is that the Venus-Pluto conjunction will occur very close to the natal Ketu-Neptune in the Futures chart. It is possible that this will reflect a negative sentiment towards crude, but Ketu is a very changeable planet and it can be converted, as it were, from a malefic to a benefic if the benefic influences on it predominate.

Gold rose modestly last week as it closed at $738. Part of the explanation for the gain lay in the aspect between the transiting Sun and the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. While this only accounted for perhaps two days' influence, it may have been enough to temporarily offset the longer term background influence of transiting Ketu on the natal Moon. Although Ketu remains a negative influence on Gold now, it is possible we may again see a temporary rise this week as transiting Mercury now falls under the benefic influence of the natal Jupiter. Perhaps more than usual, gold prices will reflect a struggle between Ketu (bearish) and Mercury (bullish).

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US stocks slide another 5%

US stocks fell sharply on increased jobless claims and poor earnings. The Dow ended the day at 8695 while the S&P stood at 904. Today's decline began in Asia, as Indian markets also lost another 3% as the Sensex finished trading at 9734 and the Nifty at 2893.

So far, this most recent move down is fulfilling our expections for a negative week overall. Tomorrow's trading should be another negative day both in India and the US, although we may see the intraday low occur at some point in the middle of the day rather than at the close, as we've seen lately. 2800 on the Nifty is very possible, and 850 on the S&P is a sort of worst case scenario, with an 880-890 close perhaps more likely. It may be a good day to consider covering shorts with a rally possible sometime next week.

Stocks slide 5%

US stocks fell 5% on bad jobs numbers in the wake of the Obama victory. The Dow closed at 9139 and the S&P ended the day at 952. While some Asian bourses extended their rally yesterday, Mumbai also closed lower by 5% on a negative oulook for Reliance. The Sensex ended trading at 10,120 and the Nifty finished at 2994.

As suggested in my weekly forecast, I think this downturn can be tied to Mercury's entrace into Swati. Look for the negative trend to continue at least until Friday, and most likely into Monday, at least in Asia.

US stocks rally on low volume

US stocks rallied 3% today as optimism surrounding the impending Obama win boosted sentiment albeit on very weak volume. The Dow closed the session at 9625 and the S&P at 1005. Asian stocks also built on recent gains and closed up strongly with the Sensex finishing at 10,631 and the Nifty at 3142.

Although I had expected the early part of the week to be more bearish, this rally has not changed by basic outlook here. Look for a change in market direction tomorrow, perhaps as a result of a refocusing on economic fundamentals, or maybe because of political developements. A McCain win seems increasingly remote, so it seems that the most likely expression of the Saturn-Uranus aspect is the end to the neo-con worldview in the United States in the wake of a Democratic sweep. Whatever ends up happening, a significant decline is imminent. This will spread to world markets and will begin a leg down of about 10% over the next few days. In light of the extent of this rally, a retest of recent lows seems quite unlikely here. An early December retest looking more probable.

US stocks flat before election

Stocks in New York traded within a narrow range as investors were cautious before the US election on Tuesday. The Dow ended the day down frationally at 9319 and the S&P closed at 966. Asian stocks continued last week's rally as the Sensex closed up 5% to 10,337 while the Nifty climbed to 3043.

While I am bearish this week, today's session was not a surprise, particularly as some investors are waiting for the outcome of the election. It is conceivable that the market will not find a clear direction until Wednesday.

Market Forecast -- week of November 3 - 7

Stocks rose over 10% last week on the belief that the worst of the financial crisis has passed. In advance of the US election on Tuesday, the Dow opens trading this week at 9325 while the S&P stands at 968. While I had foreseen some midweek gains last week, I missed the strength of this rally and assumed an earlier beginning to the negative sentiment that will result from the Saturn-Uranus aspect. I grossly underestimated the positive effect of Venus entering Jyestha on the 27th while its lord Mercury was very strong. This resulted in a growth in investor confidence and pushed prices higher, albeit on fairly modest volume.

As I have indicated previously, the markets this week will be heavily influenced by the malefic t-square involving Venus, Saturn and Uranus. The Saturn-Uranus aspect is exact on Tuesday, while Venus forms tense squares with both of these slow moving malefics on Monday. It's quite a negative picture, and with the added feature of a nasty and close US election, there is a real possibility for some unexpected developments that could rattle markets. We also have Mercury in Libra now which therefore draws more negative Saturn energy from its 3rd house aspect to Libra. Moreover, Mercury will move into malefic Swati that is ruled by Rahu on Tuesday evening, just as the polls close. This suggests that the election may be a significant factor in the market.

Overall, this week looks very negative, and the only real question is how low it will go and when that low will be reached. While I think there is a genuine risk of a major 10-15% sell off like we saw in early October, there is a good chance the decline will be more modest. I think we might see the interim low towards the end of the week, but next week also looks fairly negative, especially towards Friday the 14th. A retest of 7773 is still very much in the cards here, although I am not at all certain we will get there. It may be more prudent to expect 8100-8500 this week, but much depends on how bad Monday and Tuesday are. If they are strongly negative and we get down to about 8500 by Tuesday, then a retest becomes more likely in the very near term. A retest also becomes more of a probable eventuality if something unexpected occurs with the election. In any event, this may be a good week to contemplate covering outstanding short positions. Volatility will likely spike once again as a result of the blending of Saturn and Uranus' contradictory planetary energies.

One reason why I am not certain will retest the Oct 10 lows is that some new research I've done suggests that we are more likely to see lower lows in mid-December. In fact, those are more likely to test the 2002-2003 lows of 7100 than anything we will see this week or next. Investors thinking of buying into the market for a longer duration would be well advised to wait until December.

Indian stocks put up some impressive gains as the indices rose 12%. The Sensex opens Monday at 9788 while the Nifty sits at 2885. Notwithstanding my mistaken call for last week, I am maintaining a very bearish outlook for Mumbai this week. Look for substantial losses this week with the week's lows occurring on Thursday or Friday. Transiting Sun will conjoin the NSE Rahu and come under the malefic aspect of the natal Mars on Friday while transiting Mars sits in the 12th house of loss. This is a very bearish configuration that could push prices down at least 10% for the week. There is also a chance we will retest the Oct 27 lows, although I admit I am not certain of this, as next week looks sufficiently negative that it may result in still lower levels.

As stocks advanced last week, so did most currencies against the US dollar. The Euro rose sharply and opens the week above 1.27. With the fall in stocks this week, we can expect to see most of last week's gains disappear. Transiting Mars will aspect the natal Ketu in the Euro chart. As a possible trigger, the transiting Moon will conjoin that natal Ketu on Thursday. This may well mark the largest decline on the week. I expect a low around 1.22-1.25, if not below 1.20 intraday. Other currencies like the Rupee will likely also fall in the coming week, perhaps back to the 50-51 level. Even if the US dollar rises significantly over the next two weeks, I think we won't see the high in the dollar until December.

Crude oil rebounded last week on improved economic sentiment and opens the week at $67. Look for a sell off early in the week as the Venus-Saturn-Uranus configuration activates the angles in the Futures chart. We may well be under $60 by Wednesday. I would not be surprised to see $55 this week or next.

Gold enjoyed a brief rally midweek but fell late sharply on Friday and opens Monday at $718. My bearish outlook for gold remains is unchanged as transiting Sun is still debilitated in Libra. What's worse this week is that it will come closer to the negative influence of Saturn towards the end of the week. I think we will see gold below $700 this week, perhaps well below. There is a lot of technical support at $650 so that is an obvious price target to watch for in the coming days. It may well get there over the next two weeks, but it is not certain. A more reliable low in gold will occur in December.