New York put on a stunning show today in the wake of the emergency infusion of liquidity into the banking system. Stocks rose over 3% as the indexes closed at their previous support levels. The Dow finished at 12,156 and the S&P at 1320. I think the rest of the week looks mostly negative though. Tomorrow may be flat at best, but Thursday looks dicey. Friday may see a slight recovery at the open, but a sell off is likely towards the close. I can see markets finishing not that far from Monday's open.
Bombay's Sensex has done fairly well so far this week and is due for an up day tomorrow on the heels of this rally, but I'm not optimistic that the gains will hold by Friday. I think we'll end up pretty close to the familiar neighbourhood of 16k
Gold held steady around $974, which is not bad considering the enthusiasm for stocks. Tomorrow looks very good, however, so we should see at least a $10 gain. Oil is still going crazy as it passed $108 as investors look for safe havens from inflation. Oil's gains tomorrow will be modest will price weakening in late afternoon trading.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of Mar 10-14
In keeping with our previous forecast, American markets turned bearish last week as key indexes broke through their previous January lows. This week is likely to be similarly negative with serious retesting of the Jan 22 intraday lows (11,500/1270). I expect to the market to break through those levels at least on an intraday basis. Thursday may be decidedly negative as the transiting Sun opposes the natal Mars of the NYSE chart. Friday's close also looks like a decline so we should finish lower than Monday's open. The week after next (esp Monday the 17th) looks more negative so investors looking for exitable rallies would do well to act this week or wait a couple more weeks. That said, I think we won't see 13,000/1420 for many months, or perhaps even next year.
Bombay and Tokyo are also coming off tough weeks. The Sensex is unlikely to experience any great recovery this week. In fact, I think we'll end up lower than where we started at 15,975. Tuesday looks like the most bullish day. Starting the week at 12,782, the Nikkei will also retest lows this week given the transiting Saturn square to the natal Venus in the TSE chart. Rallies will be weak and may not go much above 13,000, while the intraday downside may see 12,000.
The decline in the US dollar and the rise in the Euro will continue, although I think the gains may be more modest this week. Monday looks mostly negative, perhaps will dips near 1.525. The rest of the week seems stronger overall with a rise into Friday. Next week looks like there will be more upside beyond 1.55.
Oil is likely to continue higher. Monday may be negative, but the upward trend with resume on Tuesday. We may see $110 at some point this week. Thursday looks like a big gain.
Gold starts the week at $972 and is poised to hit $1000 and yet I'm questioning my faith that it will break through this week. Monday looks the most volatile but I'm not certain if the market will stay positive. A decline for Tuesday seems likely. Wednesday looks strongest. Retracement is likely for Thursday with Friday as an up day that may take us over the top. We should end the week higher than where we started.
Bombay and Tokyo are also coming off tough weeks. The Sensex is unlikely to experience any great recovery this week. In fact, I think we'll end up lower than where we started at 15,975. Tuesday looks like the most bullish day. Starting the week at 12,782, the Nikkei will also retest lows this week given the transiting Saturn square to the natal Venus in the TSE chart. Rallies will be weak and may not go much above 13,000, while the intraday downside may see 12,000.
The decline in the US dollar and the rise in the Euro will continue, although I think the gains may be more modest this week. Monday looks mostly negative, perhaps will dips near 1.525. The rest of the week seems stronger overall with a rise into Friday. Next week looks like there will be more upside beyond 1.55.
Oil is likely to continue higher. Monday may be negative, but the upward trend with resume on Tuesday. We may see $110 at some point this week. Thursday looks like a big gain.
Gold starts the week at $972 and is poised to hit $1000 and yet I'm questioning my faith that it will break through this week. Monday looks the most volatile but I'm not certain if the market will stay positive. A decline for Tuesday seems likely. Wednesday looks strongest. Retracement is likely for Thursday with Friday as an up day that may take us over the top. We should end the week higher than where we started.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Market Review -- week of Mar 3 -7
Markets did finish the week lower, as we predicted. If anything, sentiment was more bearish than we thought. The American market finished down 1% Friday to finish at the lowest level since 2006. The Dow closed at 11,893 down 146 while the S&P closed at 1293 down 10 points. This was a clear breakdown of support levels, although the technically inclined may note that the Jan 22 intraday lows (11,500/1270) have yet to be breached.
Our Tokyo and Bombay calls were also fairly prescient as the Nikkei closed at 12,783, down 430 points Friday while the Sensex ended the week at 15,975 down 580. Our revised forecast had suggested that the Sensex would close around 16,000 so the skittish mood was borne out.
The bull market in the Euro, oil and gold did continue, although with some divergences from our expectations. The Euro ended the week much stronger than our forecast, closing at 1.5357. Oil closed Friday above $105 without any retracements. Gold did finish off its mid-week highs of $992 to close off a bit at $972.
Oil seems overdue for a pullback, especially since Saturn is aspecting the Moon in the futures chart in the next two weeks.
Our Tokyo and Bombay calls were also fairly prescient as the Nikkei closed at 12,783, down 430 points Friday while the Sensex ended the week at 15,975 down 580. Our revised forecast had suggested that the Sensex would close around 16,000 so the skittish mood was borne out.
The bull market in the Euro, oil and gold did continue, although with some divergences from our expectations. The Euro ended the week much stronger than our forecast, closing at 1.5357. Oil closed Friday above $105 without any retracements. Gold did finish off its mid-week highs of $992 to close off a bit at $972.
Oil seems overdue for a pullback, especially since Saturn is aspecting the Moon in the futures chart in the next two weeks.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Gathering Gloom: Markets finish below support levels
American markets have closed decisively below important support levels (12150/1320) today as the Dow closed down 214 points at 12,040 and the S&P finished at 1304 down 29 points. These were near the lows of the day and reflect the overall pessimistic mood contained in the Moon-Saturn opposition that perfected near noon. This was in keeping with our negative call yesterday and confirmed the weekly forecast that we would break through these levels this week. There's one more chance for the indexes to finish higher for the week, but while I can see an up day, I don't think they're going to make it back above water.
Bombay closed higher Wednesday at 16,542 for a nice 212 point gain in keeping with our forecast. Friday will be negative on the heels on New York's bearishness so we likely managed to get that right. It's very possible that it, too, will breach its support levels of 16,200. Tokyo will likely finish the week below 13,000, perhaps around 12,600.
The Euro continues to its own shock and awe campaign as it finished at 1.5382. While our bullish stance on the Euro has been borne out by recent moves, its day-to-day fluctuations have been harder to peg. I think it will be up further tomorrow. The greenback went below 0.65 for a time today. I am expecting it to decline to 0.60 at some point this year.
Oil rose almost a dollar to finish at 105.44 confounding my expectations. It's on a relentless roll now and it will continue for the next few weeks at least. The next few days look very bullish so $110 is not out of the question. Gold slumped back $11 to 977 but will climb higher Friday and Monday. Let's see if it can hit the 4 digit mark.
Bombay closed higher Wednesday at 16,542 for a nice 212 point gain in keeping with our forecast. Friday will be negative on the heels on New York's bearishness so we likely managed to get that right. It's very possible that it, too, will breach its support levels of 16,200. Tokyo will likely finish the week below 13,000, perhaps around 12,600.
The Euro continues to its own shock and awe campaign as it finished at 1.5382. While our bullish stance on the Euro has been borne out by recent moves, its day-to-day fluctuations have been harder to peg. I think it will be up further tomorrow. The greenback went below 0.65 for a time today. I am expecting it to decline to 0.60 at some point this year.
Oil rose almost a dollar to finish at 105.44 confounding my expectations. It's on a relentless roll now and it will continue for the next few weeks at least. The next few days look very bullish so $110 is not out of the question. Gold slumped back $11 to 977 but will climb higher Friday and Monday. Let's see if it can hit the 4 digit mark.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Commodities rally
Oil and gold hit record highs again today. Crude closed up $4 to $104.75 as the double barreled beneficence of the Moon with Venus transiting the equal 9th house cusp of the futures chart proven to be a very bullish combination. Gold rose $22 to $988. I think tomorrow will be quieter especially given the Moon-Saturn opposition that occurs midday New York time. A small drop (<1%) is likely in prices.. Gold will likely continue rising Friday though and may break through the $1000 barrier as the transiting Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. If it doesn't do it Friday, then Monday or Tuesday.
The Euro finished above our forecast range to close at 1.527. Thursday will take it down substantially, back under 1.52 and possibly touching 1.515 intraday. Friday looks like an up day, especially in late afternoon trading (CET) as the transiting Moon approaches the natal Jupiter. I would expect a close above 1.52.
Stocks in New York finished modestly higher as we forecast. The Dow closed at 12,254 up 41 points and the S&P ended the day at 1333 up 6. Tomorrow looks like a down day, although I think we'll stay above support levels (12150/1320) by the close.
Bombay and Tokyo finished higher yesterday and look poised to continue the upward swing Thursday. The Sensex may reach 16,800. Friday looks quite negative. Look for the BSE to test its support levels of 16,200 at some point in the day. It may break through but will likely finish above it by the close.
The Euro finished above our forecast range to close at 1.527. Thursday will take it down substantially, back under 1.52 and possibly touching 1.515 intraday. Friday looks like an up day, especially in late afternoon trading (CET) as the transiting Moon approaches the natal Jupiter. I would expect a close above 1.52.
Stocks in New York finished modestly higher as we forecast. The Dow closed at 12,254 up 41 points and the S&P ended the day at 1333 up 6. Tomorrow looks like a down day, although I think we'll stay above support levels (12150/1320) by the close.
Bombay and Tokyo finished higher yesterday and look poised to continue the upward swing Thursday. The Sensex may reach 16,800. Friday looks quite negative. Look for the BSE to test its support levels of 16,200 at some point in the day. It may break through but will likely finish above it by the close.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Wall St bends but does not break
American markets plumbed the depths of its support levels today but finished above them. The Dow was down as low as 12,032 in the afternoon but climbed to close at 12,213. The S&P likewise fell below the 1320 support level all the way down to 1307 before closing at 1326. I think tomorrow starts lower but may recover by the afternoon. We may finish a little higher.
Bombay and Tokyo have had substantial haircuts so far this week. The Sensex finished Tuesday at 16,339 down more than 1000 points from Monday's open. Tokyo has proven more resilient to this sell off and held steady in Tuesday trading just under the 13,000 level. The risk is mostly on the downside here going into Thursday.
Oil and gold pulled off their highs and finished sharply lower. This is in keeping with our forecast that the week looked less bullish than last. Gold is the better bet of the two to head higher by the end of the week and next week. The Euro held onto its recent gains and closed at 1.52. It will likely stay within 1.1515 and 1.525 for the next couple days.
Bombay and Tokyo have had substantial haircuts so far this week. The Sensex finished Tuesday at 16,339 down more than 1000 points from Monday's open. Tokyo has proven more resilient to this sell off and held steady in Tuesday trading just under the 13,000 level. The risk is mostly on the downside here going into Thursday.
Oil and gold pulled off their highs and finished sharply lower. This is in keeping with our forecast that the week looked less bullish than last. Gold is the better bet of the two to head higher by the end of the week and next week. The Euro held onto its recent gains and closed at 1.52. It will likely stay within 1.1515 and 1.525 for the next couple days.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of March 3-7
Equity markets are probably headed lower this week. The question is: will they break through support levels? My initial reading of the charts says yes, although things will be clearer by midweek. The end of the week looks most negative, so if we can get some up days in the early part of the week, then the indexes may not break decisively through. In NY, I do think we'll end up lower than where we start (12,266 on the Dow and 1330 on the S&P), but possibly not by much. Right now, I'd say we have a greater than 50% chance of breaking down below 12,000/1320 at least on an intraday basis. Nonetheless, any rallies to 12,500/1360 that may occur early on should be seen as exit points from the market. Venus and Mercury will oppose the natal Uranus in the NYSE chart through much of the week, so expect a lot of volatility.
Tokyo and Bombay's BSE are also headed lower from their present levels. The Nikkei may fare better of the two, although it will seriously retest its January low of 12,572. The Sensex will probably drop below its previous February low of 16,600, especially by Thursday as Mercury and Venus oppose the natal Mars in the BSE chart. It has the potential to be a fairly nasty time with daily declines on the order of 3-5%.
Gold, oil and the Euro will continue on their bullish trends although not as strongly or consistently as in the past couple weeks. The Euro will continue strong but later in the week beginning Wednesday there will be significant declines, perhaps back to 1.51 or lower. Monday and Tuesday will not see any major selloffs. As we said last week, gold is a good bet to move past $1000 this week. Oil is vulnerable to declines this week, so rallies beyond $102 will not likely not last. I think we'll see oil back under $100, at least intermittently through the week and by the close Friday.
I will post some more time-specific revised forecasts through the week.
Tokyo and Bombay's BSE are also headed lower from their present levels. The Nikkei may fare better of the two, although it will seriously retest its January low of 12,572. The Sensex will probably drop below its previous February low of 16,600, especially by Thursday as Mercury and Venus oppose the natal Mars in the BSE chart. It has the potential to be a fairly nasty time with daily declines on the order of 3-5%.
Gold, oil and the Euro will continue on their bullish trends although not as strongly or consistently as in the past couple weeks. The Euro will continue strong but later in the week beginning Wednesday there will be significant declines, perhaps back to 1.51 or lower. Monday and Tuesday will not see any major selloffs. As we said last week, gold is a good bet to move past $1000 this week. Oil is vulnerable to declines this week, so rallies beyond $102 will not likely not last. I think we'll see oil back under $100, at least intermittently through the week and by the close Friday.
I will post some more time-specific revised forecasts through the week.
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