Markets push higher ahead of ECB and Fed meetings

 (20 July 2022) Financial markets are still in rebound mode this week as investors await the outcome of tomorrow's ECB decision and next week's FOMC meeting on July 27.  Since the low of 3636 on the S&P 500 on June 17, stocks have been attempting to recoup some of their losses as investors consider the possibility that inflation has peaked.  Certainly, falling commodity prices are one reason to think that inflation may be cooling off, and if that is the case, then the ECB may only hike a minimum 25 basis points and the Fed may be satisfied with just another 75 point hike. 

Regardless of the rate decisions, it remains to be seen if this is the end of the correction or just a bear market rally that will ultimately fail and lead to lower lows.  On the whole, the planetary influences do not look overly positive for the coming months and suggest that lower lows are very possible.   But could this current rebound last a while longer?

We can look for clues in the horoscope of the NYSE (May 17, 1792).  As I have noted previously, the decline since April has been closely correlated with the 30-degree alignment of Saturn and Neptune.  The influence of this alignment was exceptionally strong since 1) Saturn stationed retrograde in early June and 2) it also formed a larger midpoint-based alignment with Uranus and Chiron.  Since the angular separation of Saturn and Neptune as well as Uranus and Chiron is approximately 30 degrees, their negative impact has lasted for an unusually long time.  As a rule, any alignment involving Saturn is a negative influence on sentiment and its effects can be magnified if slower moving planets are involved as is the case here. 

We can see an additional source of a pessimism since Saturn (29 Capricorn) forms a close 60 degree aspect with the natal Moon (28 Pisces).  This Saturn-Moon aspect will be exact on August 8 although it is already within effective range and may only require a faster-moving planet to act as catalyst.

And yet even though the bearish Saturn alignment remains within range both by transit and natally, we still are in the midst of a sizable rebound.  Why?  One reason is that bullish Jupiter has become stronger in July ahead of its retrograde station on July 28.  Markets tend to do well when Jupiter is strong, either when it is aspecting other planets and/or if its velocity is low.  Planetary velocity is much lower during the period around the direct and retrograde stations and thus we should not be surprised to see some upside here as Jupiter slows down before turning retrograde. 

The other factor I would note here is that Jupiter (14 Pisces) forms a kind of hidden alignment with Uranus (24 Aries).  While Jupiter does not form a conventional Vedic aspect with Uranus, it is conjunct in the navamsa, 9th divisional chart.  This is the same thing as forming a 40 degree aspect in the rasi natal chart (360/9 = 40).   The 40-degree aspect is also a divisor of the circle and thus should be taken seriously as a possible angle of resonance between planets.  It is also broadly bullish that Jupiter forms similar navamsa-type alignments with Uranus (24 Cancer) and Chiron (24 Gemini) in the NYSE chart.

It is therefore possible that markets can avoid another decline at least until the Jupiter retrograde station on July 28 -- just one day after the FOMC meeting.  In this scenario, the positive Jupiter influence could largely offset the underlying negative influence of the Saturn-Neptune-Uranus-Chiron alignment. Once Jupiter begins to move backwards, however, it could shift the balance of planetary energies and give bears the edge once again.

More immediately, I do wonder about the rest of this week.  Tomorrow's Moon-Mars conjunction doesn't seem very positive although the Mercury-Venus alignment seems more bullish.  By itself,  the Mercury-Venus alignment could coincide with some upside since both planets are benefic by nature, and that could well be the case later this week. 

However, I would note that Mercury and Venus will be separated by 30 degrees on Thursday and 31 degrees on Friday.  This is close enough that it could set up a negative resonance with the Saturn-Neptune alignment (= 32 degrees) which could bring further weakness.   Market direction is therefore somewhat uncertain, although the closeness of the alignments suggests a large move is more likely.  Some increased volatility is more likely early next week ahead of the Fed meeting as Mercury squares Mars.


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