(7 June 2022)
So far, 2022 has been a very challenging year. The pandemic hangover,
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rampant inflation and sky-high gas
prices, and now the prospect of a recession around the corner. After
contracting 1.4% in the first quarter on pandemic-related disruptions,
the US economy still looks weak here in the second quarter. Based on
the most recent data, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator
estimates that Q2 growth has slumped to just 0.9%. With consumers
tightening their belts in response to inflation, discretionary spending
has fallen significantly in recent weeks. Indeed, there is now a
very real possibility that the second quarter will post the second
consecutive negative GDP print, thus fulfilling the definition of a
recession.
While there are good economic reasons to expect a recession sometime in
2022, it is worth noting that the astrological influences are also
strongly inclined in that direction. The horoscope of President Joe
Biden is heavily afflicted, especially those chart factors that are
associated with economic vitality. As president, Biden symbolizes the
nation as a whole so that the ups and downs of his chart can be applied
to the fortunes of the US generally.
As I have noted previously, transiting Saturn is in an extremely
difficult influence for Biden. It stationed retrograde a few days ago
at 1 Aquarius and is will move backwards until late October when it
stations direct at 24 Capricorn. Even looking at the transit picture
alone, the current Saturn-Neptune 30-degree alignment reflects the
current global malaise with regards to inflation, pandemic fatigue and
war fears. While Saturn is now separating from its alignment with
Neptune, its next major planetary alignment is a near-exact square with
Uranus in September. This will be another very onerous influence upon
global affairs which suggests heightened uncertainty, unrest, and
geopolitical instability.
The outlook worsens further when we apply the transits to Biden's horoscope. Saturn, the planet of restriction, caution and pessimism, casts its full-strength square aspect to his natal Mercury (28 Libra) for the rest of the year with additional exact hits due in early August and late December/early January. Mercury is a key planetary significator of the economy since it signifies commerce, trading and transportation. When it is afflicted by Saturn, people tend to take fewer risks, so credit dries up and economic activities are constrained. This, in turn, can lead to a negative GDP and higher unemployment. Mercury is doubly afflicted by the aspects of Saturn and Mars in late June (see chart). This could well coincide with more bad economic news that elevates the risk of a market pullback.
And Biden's problems don't just come from Saturn. In October, Biden's Mars (military action, conflict) will be afflicted by the conjunction with Ketu and the opposition from Uranus. This Mars affliction is serious and could represent a few different things. It increases the possibility of some kind of direct military involvement of the US, or more mundanely, Biden and the Democrats will suffer huge losses in the November midterm elections. Since the electoral losses seem very likely at this point, I suspect the Mars influence will manifest as something worse.
The picture doesn't improve much in 2023 either. Once Saturn resumes its normal forward motion in October, it will go on to square his Sun-Venus conjunction (4-5 Scorpio) in February and then cast is third house aspect to the Moon (8 Aries) in March. This is an unbelievable series of bad Saturn transits that is likely to see the economic and social situation in the US deteriorate further. While it is possible Q2 may end up avoiding a negative GDP print, the ongoing assault from Saturn here points strongly to a recession later in the year or in early 2023.
And to top it all off, Biden is due to enter the Saturn dasha period this September. His Jupiter-Rahu dasha won him the White House in 2020 as both planets are well-placed. Jupiter is in its most exalted degree in early Cancer in the 9th house of good fortune, while Rahu is in the 10th house of status and achievement. Although a natural malefic, Rahu actually does very well in the 10th and 11th houses where it confers high status and a generous income.
But all that Jupiter-Rahu energy comes to an end in September and will be replaced by a double dose of Saturn, as both minor and major dasha lord. Biden's administration is rapidly sinking in the polls and appears impotent to cope with inflation or soaring gas prices. And that is under the more favorable Jupiter-Rahu! Things are therefore likely to get substantially worse under Saturn.
Needless to say, the prospect of an imminent recession isn't good news for the stock market. Stocks have already fallen almost 20% this year. Thus far, stocks have only declined as a reaction to inflation and the anticipation of higher interest rates. Investors have yet to fully price in a recession. Once a recession becomes apparent, markets will likely fall further.
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