(21 March 2022)
Stocks rebounded strongly last week as the Fed finally delivered
on its 25-point rate hike. With inflation surging, Powell's
modest hike was seen as a dovish compromise given the uncertainty
from the ongoing war in Ukraine. Of course, the prospect of Fed
tightening has flattened the yield curve recently as the spread on the
2/10y now under 20 basis points and on the verge of inverting. The Fed
was late to tighten (as usual) and now could be at risk of repeating
the mistakes of 2008 by finally tightening only to realize they are in
the midst of a slowdown and have to do an about-face and loosen.
The planets this week look less bullish. One big reason for last
week's rally was the Venus-Mercury-Uranus-Chiron alignment. While
Uranus (18 Aries) and Chiron (17 Pisces) are still closely aligned and
thus broadly bullish, Venus and Mercury have since moved on. This
should significantly weaken positive sentiment. On the negative side
of the ledger, Mars forms a square aspect with Uranus in the first half
of the week. Mars-Uranus is often a negative influence, although the
60-degree aspect with Chiron could be a moderating factor.
Nonetheless, it does not seem positive.
The other significant alignment this week involves Mercury, the planet
of commerce and trade. Mercury is the planet perhaps closely associated
with market behavior and is subject to fast-changing conditions. When
Mercury is aligned with malefics, stocks tend to fall. But when
aspected with benefics, stocks usually rise, as we saw last week when it
aligned with Venus.
On Wednesday, Mercury conjoins Neptune in the final degree of sidereal
Aquarius. While this can be a positive combination for some commodities
like oil, it is a more ambiguous influence for stocks in general. But
the larger issue this week is that the Mercury-Neptune conjunction
will be closely aligned with Ketu (South Lunar Node). Ketu is a
malefic influence that often brings about reversals and unpleasant
surprises.
The exact timing of the Ketu alignment with Mercury-Neptune is hard to pinpoint due to the different measurements of the Lunar Nodes. The True Node version of Ketu aligns on Wednesday, while the Mean Node version aligns on Thursday. While I usually use the True Node, it doesn't always provide the best results. Therefore, it may be better to give Ketu a wider margin of error this week to encompass both possibilities. An additional factor to consider here is that Mercury will enter Pisces, its sign of debilitation, on Thursday and thus may be less able to cope with the Neptune and Ketu influences.
And we shouldn't forget to mention the Saturn-Uranus contra-parallel in geocentric declinations late this week. This bearish pairing will be exactly contra-parallel at 15 degrees and 15 minutes after Thursday's US close. This is a slow-moving pairing, however, so I am uncertain when it could generate some sparks. In the absence of any faster-moving triggering planet at 15 degrees this week, it's possible it will be a dud and not move markets at all. Nonetheless, it is worth monitoring. As an added burden on sentiment, Mars is parallel Neptune in latitudes during midweek. While parallels are usually less negative than contra-parallels, the Mars-Neptune combination is not usually positive.
The positives seem less prominent this week. The Uranus-Chiron alignment still looks fairly strong so that's something for bulls. And Jupiter forms a potentially bullish latitudinal semi-parallel with Venus on Monday and a declinational parallel with Mercury on Tuesday. Monday wasn't very bullish, however, so that suggests that even the bullish Venus-Jupiter semi-parallel didn't have much impact on the overall picture.
Let's see how durable this post-Fed rally will be this week.
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