Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Hillary wins first debate with Trump

(27 September 2016) Early indications are that Democrat Hillary Clinton was the winner of the first presidential debate against her GOP opponent Donald Trump.  A CNN-ORC poll showed that 62% of respondents thought she won the debate while financial markets offered even more evidence that Hillary bested Trump.  The stock market is well known to prefer a Clinton presidency and Dow futures rose throughout the debate.  Markets don't like uncertainty and Clinton is seen as a status quo candidate with close ties to Wall Street (Just ask Goldman Sachs!). 

Even more telling was the rise of the Mexican peso following the debate.  The peso has closely mirror the relative strength of Donald Trump, who is seen as a net negative for the Mexican economy since he wants to tax imports from south of the border and deport millions of illegal Mexicans living in the US.   The stronger post-debate peso was more proof that the market now sees Hillary Clinton as being one step closer to the presidency.

This outcome was not surprising as I thought Hillary Clinton would likely win in this first debate.  The alignment of the Sun, Venus and Jupiter to her Sun at 9 Libra was suggestive of a positive result from being in the spotlight.  To be sure, only Venus was conjunct her Sun, but the non-aspecting influence of the Sun and Jupiter was likely also helpful to her.  Also I thought that Trump's chart didn't look that favourable to him given the prominence of transiting Mars in this chart. 

Some Mars is good since it gives initiative and assertiveness, but a lot of Mars is usually bad.  This is especially for someone with an outsized Mars like Trump who has it rising in this 1st house (the Self) in the royal sign of Leo.  Actually, I thought Trump was surprisingly restrained through the whole thing as I had previously suggested he might have become outrageously aggressive as in past debates.

I have tended to not be overly reliant on the minutiae of Hillary's chart because her birth time remains in doubt.  I've cautiously used the 8.00 a.m. time up to now but generally ignored the time dependent factors wherever possible.  That's why I have also consulted the charts of her husband Bill and daughter Chelsea whose birth times are more well known. Bill Clinton's chart showed a very obvious positive alignment as the Sun-Jupiter conjunction at 9 and 10 degrees of Virgo was coming up to hit his Ascendant at 12 Virgo.  A pretty nice alignment for getting what you want I'd have to say.

So what happens now?  Well, if Bill's 8.50 a.m. chart is correct (and I think it is), then Hillary should continue to do well for the next couple of weeks and right up to the election.   It's all about those planets in Virgo.  Bill's Ascendant (first house) is Virgo and he has the Sun, Neptune and Venus all situated in that first house.  Jupiter is slowly transiting through Virgo (for the next year or so) so that will be a big boost for both Bill and Hillary. 

The first debate took place just as the Sun was conjoining Bill's Ascendant.  Basically a slam dunk sort of planetary pattern for a Clinton debate win.  As the Sun moves past his Ascendant, there may be a slight come down for a few days but now Mercury has also entered Virgo and that will likely also translate into favourable situations and outcomes for the Clintons over the next couple of weeks.  The Vice-presidential debate on October 4th may also go the Democrats way as transiting Sun conjoins Bill's Venus.  I've already suggested Democratic VP nominee Tim Kaine would do well in October as the Mars-Jupiter square lines up exactly to the degree with his Ascendant on -- you guessed it -- October 4th.  Mars and Jupiter are power planets that are highly conducive for gaining political advantage. 

The second debate takes place on October 9th just a day before Mercury (10 Virgo) also conjoins Bill's Ascendant alongside Jupiter (12 Virgo).  Mercury is associated with thinking and information whereas Jupiter symbolizes optimism and "right outcomes".  This conjunction should therefore translate into information that creates positive results for Hillary.  Moreover, transiting Venus (happiness) is almost exactly opposite his natal Moon (the feminine, emotions).  Both of these transits are very positive for Hillary's performance and they will increase the chances for a second debate 'win'.  And yet, Mars will casts its malefic 8th house aspect (210 degrees) to Clinton's Mercury around that second debate.  That is not good at all.  It seems likely that Hillary will experience some setback around that time.  So while there are problems on the Clinton side, we can see that the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction will line up in exact opposition to Kaine's Ascendant at 11 Pisces so that's another sign that Hillary will continue to lead in the polls and do well at the time of the second debate.

And yet Donald Trump's chart has some strength at that time also that it lacked for the first debate.  On the plus side, the transiting Sun (23 Virgo) is coming up to his Jupiter (24 Virgo) and it will activate this nice Jupiter-Uranus alignment.  It's exact the following day (poll results?) but I would think he feels some kind of ego boost from it.  Sun-Jupiter alignments can indicate rewards and recognition. 

However, once again Mars lurks in the Trump chart and not in a good way.  Transiting Mars (14 Sagittarius) will be closely opposite his Mercury (15 Gemini) symbolizing communication.  Trump may therefore be more aggressive and harsh in his speech at this debate.  Overall, maybe Trump has a mixed performance.  Perhaps he scores some important points in the debate but somehow has a Mars-related setback by being overly aggressive.  He could conceivably win some short-term polls on 'who won the debate' but still not make up any ground in actual polls about probable voting intentions on November 8th.  It's an interesting mix of planets to be sure.

The bottom line is the stars are still aligning very much in favour of a Hillary Clinton presidency.  I just don't see any other outcome.  Last year, I thought Hillary had the stars to win while Trump couldn't win.  Nothing has changed.  Yes, I underestimated Trump's chances to win the GOP nomination even if he chart was really good.  Maybe that's my bias talking.  But on the question of the ultimate prize, I don't see how Trump wins this thing.  The question is rather how much will he lose by.  For now, I can't think of a plausible way of distinguishing between a narrow win and a landslide based on the charts alone.  What is the astrological signature for humiliation and how is it different from crushing and disappointing narrow loss?

Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks rallied last week after the Fed left rates unchanged.  With the Fed too timid to hike rates, investors again hit the buy button as the Dow gained 1% on the week.  The Indian Sensex also added about 1%.  In last week's market forecast, I thought we could see a short term pullback after the Fed, but the overall gains were not unexpected given the generally bullish patterns in play.  Venus is in Libra now and the Sun was approaching its conjunction with bullish Jupiter.  So far this week, however, stocks have fallen on profit taking as crude oil producers have failed to come to a production freeze to prop up prices. 

The rest of this week looks somewhat mixed.  Wednesday's Moon-Rahu conjunction seems negative  and could extend the uncertainty.  However, the late week looks more bullish as the Moon conjoins the Sun-Jupiter conjunction.  The market could hang on a bit longer here in early October as Mercury conjoins with Jupiter but time is growing short as Saturn is squaring both Rahu (North Lunar Node) and Neptune. This planetary alignment could be too much even for this heavily manipulated market to handle.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.