Sunday, May 31, 2015

Is this the endgame for Greece?

(31 May 2015) After suffering through five years of a seemingly endless cycle of financial panics, ultimatums and bailouts, it seems we are now in the final act of the Greek debt crisis.  Last ditch negotiations continued through the weekend before Greece has to make a major debt repayment on 5 June.  The fun may only be starting as its current bailout package will expire on 30 June.  Greece has been financially insolvent since 2010 and has required several bailout packages provided by the EU, ECB and IMF. 

But is this really the end?  Another bailout package is possible which would essentially kick the can down the road for another year or two as Greece tries to lift its moribund economy out of its depression.  But if the EU decides that enough is enough, then Greece would default on its debt.  The problem is that it isn't clear what would happen next.  Would Greece voluntarily leave the Eurozone, or would it be asked to leave? Or could a defaulted and bankrupt Greece somehow stay in the Eurozone? 

The current situation is an apt reflection of the astrological influences on the swearing-in horoscope of the new Tspiras government.  As I predicted back in January when the government took office, I thought the June to August period would be difficult for Tsipras and the Greek government and that economic hardship would likely intensify due to the close Saturn transit to the Moon and Venus.  I thought that the patience of the Germans and the EU could finally run out and that another bailout package may not be forthcoming.  I was unsure if an outright default could occur this year or whether some of the alignments in 2016 might better symbolize a full-blown default and exit from the Eurozone.  The 2016 chart looked worse so I wondered if that might signal that the Tsipras government itself might fall at that time.

Now that we have moved that much closer to the alignments in question, we may offer a few more observations about might happen here.  The Jupiter-Uranus aspect is still quite helpful for this Greek government chart so I would not expect any kind of worst case scenarios to occur in June.  A quick default or "Grexit" seems unlikely as long as the protective affects of Jupiter-Uranus aspect and the Jupiter-Jupiter conjunction are in place. 

However, the transit of retrograde Mercury this week looks difficult for this chart as it aligns with natal Saturn and Neptune.  This is definitely not what one would expect if a major deal with the EU were reached.  Some kind of deal has to be reached by Friday 5 June, but the planets are suggesting that it won't be smooth sailing.  An alternative interpretation might be that the short term payment is somehow made (or deferred) by Friday but the larger debt problem will remain a heavy burden on the Tsipras government.

Things could get more interesting after 22 June as the Jupiter-Uranus aspect begins to separate.  As the supportive influence of Jupiter wanes, we see that the Saturn aspect to the Moon and Venus will move that much closer.  The tension and sense of burden and suffering will likely be quite strong at least until the Saturn station on 2 August.  In addition, transiting Ketu will form a trine aspect with natal Saturn through much of July.  Ketu aspects are often harbingers of change and disruption.  And we are currently in the Ketu-Mars dasha period in this chart.  That's not the greatest pairing to be sure.  But after 29 July, Ketu-Rahu begins.  That is usually a worse dasha period and may signal a deepening of the financial crisis for Greece.  This period will last until August 2016. 

So will see see a default by July?  It's possible. It's difficult for me to infer exactly what kind kind of manifestations we can expect from these Saturn and Ketu afflictions.  Certainly, there is a worsening of the government's position with these transits.  And it seems quite likely that the economy will also get worse.  Of course, this needn't be the result of a default or exit from the Eurozone.  But given the gravity of the current situation, those kinds of scenarios are looking a bit more likely during the summer. 

Weekly Financial Update

Stocks were generally lower last week as investors contemplated the possibility that a deal might not get done between Greece and the EU.  The Dow lost about 1% closing at 18,010 while the Sensex slipped about 100 points to 27,828.  This decline was in keeping with last week's stock market forecast as I thought the midweek Mercury-Mars conjunction would likely produce a negative result overall.  Somewhat paradoxically, stocks actually rose on Wednesday -- the day of the exact conjunction.  The declines were spread throughout the week due to the wider alignment with North Node Rahu and Neptune. 
While this week lacks any clearly negative alignments, I'm not convinced we will get much upside despite Jupiter's ongoing supportive influence.  Tuesday's Full Moon looks problematic due to the close proximity of Mars to the Sun.  And with Venus aligning with Saturn on Friday, we are likely to see some additional downside here.  While stocks may have their share of gains this week, they seem less likely to hold by the end of the week.