A still-divided republic: the US under Biden

 (15 July 2021) "A house divided against itself cannot stand."   With these words uttered in 1858, the future President Abraham Lincoln warned of the coming US civil war.  Borne of a violent war of independence against Britain, the US was never going to be a mild-mannered country.  The bloody Civil War (1860-1865) seemed to only cement its cultural proclivity for bold action and conflict, if deemed necessary.  

Nowadays, we can see that the US is becoming an increasingly divided country once again as the two warring political parties appear more polarized than ever.  This division took root under George W. Bush and Barack Obama, only to see the Trump presidency amplify it even further.  Despite Joe Biden's promise as a moderating force after the raucous Trump years, America remains as divided as ever.  If anything, the pandemic has likely deepened the cultural divide between liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans, as cooperation and compromise is in short supply on every conceivable issue -- Covid, the economy, censorship, climate change, and race relations. 

From an astrological perspective, the Biden presidency seems unlikely to mend any fences.  One key data point in this respect is the Inauguration chart for noon, January 20, 2021.  The presidential swearing-in horoscope is a symbolic representation of the themes that will be prominent for the next four years.  As I have previously noted, the Biden Inauguration chart is very afflicted.  

Aggressive Mars forms an exact conjunction with unstable Uranus in the 1st house in Aries.  This is a pattern that points to potentially historic events unfolding during Biden's term.  The Mars-Uranus combination is usually associated with conflict and violence, especially since it is placed here in the 1st house of the body/nation.  This placement definitely increases the likelihood of some kind of military action between 2021 and 2024.  In addition, however, the involvement of the 1st house could mean that the conflict could be focused within the nation itself.

One key time window to watch for is this coming September and October.  At that time, Saturn is due to station direct at 12 Capricorn, thus forming an exact 90-degree square alignment with Mars and Uranus.  Saturn is a malefic planet which is often implicated in difficult situations.  In this instance, it should be seen as a catalyst or trigger for the powder keg of Mars-Uranus energy.  Moreover, transiting Rahu will form a 120 degree aspect with Saturn and the Sun in the 10th house.  Like Saturn, Rahu is considered a natural malefic which can cause problems.   Since the 10th house represents government and leaders, the Rahu influence could symbolize a disruption of the US government in some way. 

The Biden presidency may therefore come under intense stress with these two simultaneous aspects.  As I have suggested before, Biden himself may be the focus of attention here, as these afflictions may bring major political changes.   One possible scenario could be his resignation although other scenarios are also very possible.  In any event, these stresses seem likely to amplify the political and cultural divisions in the US. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have remained near their record highs this week despite ongoing inflation concerns.  For now, the Fed seems content with monitoring the situation without actually providing any details on when tapering of its QE asset purchases may begin.  This is good news for investors as the endless injections of government and central bank cash keeps stock prices inflated alongside most other things in the economy. 

Next week could see a bit more uncertainty enter into the market, however, as Mars enters Leo and aligns with Pluto.  And using somewhat broader parameters, Mars will also form minor alignments with Rahu and Saturn early next week.  Overall, this seems more likely to coincide with some downside.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks fall on Delta variant fears

(8 July 2021) US stocks tumbled today on fears the spread of the Delta variant could upset summer reopening plans.   Some investors hit the sell button today after weighing the possibility of more lockdowns despite the largely successful vaccination programs in the US and Europe.   This bearish beginning to the month of July is not too surprising given approaching Venus-Mars conjunction which is exact on Tuesday, July 13.

July as a whole may be somewhat vulnerable to declines due to the extended alignment between Saturn and Rahu, the North Lunar Node.  Both of these malefic planets are now moving backwards while maintaining a very close 120 degree separation within just two degrees of orb.   This extended angular relationship could damage sentiment over the next several weeks. 

Moreover, we can see that this malefic alignment will activate the horoscope of the Nasdaq stock index.   The growth-oriented Nasdaq has been outperforming other indexes recently as bond yields have fallen in anticipation of transitory inflation and a possible Fed tapering of QE asset purchases later this year.  The current planetary afflictions in the chart are fairly clear.  Saturn is forming in a near-exact conjunction with the natal Sun (18 Capricorn) while Rahu is within one-degree of conjoining the natal Moon (15 Taurus).  Both are destabilizing influences that reduce the probability for a continuation of the recent rally. 

And since both Saturn and Rahu move quite slowly -- just one degree every three weeks at their current velocities -- the dual afflictions to the natal Sun and Moon will remain in place for a while longer.   Typically, aspects are strongest when exact and begin to weaken when they begin to separate.  Here we have a more complex set up since Saturn is already separating (i.e. a lessening negative influence) from its conjunction with the Sun while Rahu is still approaching its conjunction with the Moon (i.e. an increasing negative influence).  This very mixed picture nonetheless should give bulls pause in the near term. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Trump organization indicted for tax fraud

 (1 July 2021) Donald Trump's fortunes have taken a turn for the worse.  The organization that bears the name of the former US president was indicted for tax fraud this week by the New York district attorney.  On Thursday, the Trump organization CFO Allen Weisselberg pleaded not guilty to the charge.  Since Donald Trump was not named in the indictment, he is unlikely to be subject to direct punishment, however.

While Trump has denounced the investigation as a political witch hunt, it seems likely to damage his reputation and could hamper any potential presidential run in 2024.  Political betting markets now have Florida Governor Ron DeSantis pulling ahead of Trump as the favored GOP nominee in 2024, 29% to 26%. 

This most recent setback for Trump is reflected in his horoscope.  In a January post, I suggested that the first half of 2021 could be quite difficult for him, especially between April and June, and that legal troubles were possible.  He was running an underwhelming Jupiter-Saturn dasha period while Saturn stationed retrograde exactly opposite his 12th house Pluto in May.  In addition, Ketu aspected his Pluto at the same time while Neptune squared his natal Sun (29 Taurus).   As it happens, Trump's Jupiter-Saturn period actually ended on June 1 according to the Krishnamurti ayanamsha which I generally favor, although it ends in July with Lahiri.  It is quite possible that Trump likely knew of the coming indictment several weeks ago, perhaps closer to the time of the Saturn Rx station on May 23.

From the chart, we can see that all of those afflictions are still within range as Saturn, Ketu and Neptune haven't moved much in recent weeks.  We should also note that today's indictment coincided with Mars' conjunction with his natal Pluto, thus creating a very powerful opposition with transiting Saturn.

Looking ahead, I think Trump could remain on the defensive for the rest of July.  Minor dasha lord Mercury will transit the 12th house and will conjoin Pluto (along with the Sun) opposite Saturn on August 1.  At the same time, Mars will conjoins his Ascendant and oppose transiting Jupiter.  This could signify an impactful event that may resolve his legal situation one way or the other.  Given the active alignments, outcomes are unlikely to be positive.  Now just what this may represent is harder to say.  Weisselberg may be found guilty or could take a plea bargain for a lesser charge.  A plea bargain would be potentially worse for Trump since he could flip and implicate Trump directly. 

While it doesn't look good, I still think Trump's fortunes are likely to improve starting in August and especially in September and October.  On the whole, the Jupiter-Mercury dasha period is quite positive for the next two years or so, especially since Trump's Mercury is very well-placed in its own sign in the 11th house of gains.  Also, transiting Jupiter will station in a close 120 degree alignment with his Sun (and Rahu and Uranus) in October.  This suggests a significant boost in his status relative to the preceding period.  So in the event that Trump loses the indictment case in the summer, he is likely to avoid any worst-case scenarios because of this beneficial Jupiter transit.  Alternatively, it could coincide with a major new political or business opportunity for him.   I would definitely not count him out. 


Weekly Market Forecast
 
Stocks have remained in their summer melt-up mode for yet another week as inflation fears have receded.  I had thought we might have seen more volatility this week given the rare Mars-Saturn-Uranus alignment.  Thus far, this pattern hasn't produced much of anything as trading volumes fall in advance of the July 4 holiday.  One possible explanation for the absence of any negative outcomes is that Chiron is forming a 60-degree angle with Saturn.  Since Chiron does not form a more malefic hard angle (90,180 degrees) with Saturn, it may be having a softening effect on the whole configuration.

Despite the absence of any bearish developments this week, the alignment still carries some downside risk as we head into next week.  Venus approaches its conjunction with Mars (bearish bias) and thereby opposes Saturn on Tuesday.   While further upside would not be surprising later in the week, the month of July overall seems increasingly vulnerable to declines as Saturn aligns closely with Rahu (North Lunar Node). 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks rally on bipartisan infrastructure deal

(24 June 2021) Stocks pushed to new all-time highs today on news of an agreement on a pared-down Senate infrastructure deal.  President Biden threw his support behind the bipartisan deal but added that he would only sign it if the Democrats' ambitious reconciliation bill is also passed in the coming months.   Investors welcomed the more concrete evidence of fiscal stimulus to keep the recovery going as special Covid unemployment benefits are now ending in a number of states.

We can see the outlines of this legislative success fairly clearly in Biden's horoscope.  Jupiter stationed retrograde this past Sunday, June 20 at 8 Aquarius.  This set up a very helpful alignment with his Moon (8 Aries), Uranus (9 Taurus) and Ascendant (10 Scorpio).  The Jupiter station is much more powerful (i.e. positive) than a simple Jupiter transit since it has no forward motion for approximately 5-10 days.   Therefore, it resonates with the natal planet for much longer than would otherwise be the case. 

But now that Jupiter is retrograde, the beneficial effects of this alignment may well weaken in the coming days.  This suggests that Biden is more likely to encounter more challenging situations where outcomes may be less to his liking.  And since the president's horoscope is a stand-in for the country as a whole, we could infer the possibility of less constructive events unfolding as we head into July.  

As I have noted previously, we still await the July 1 T-square alignment involving Mars, Saturn and Uranus. This is a tense configuration involving two natural malefics, Mars and Saturn.  One malefic planet in a three-planet pattern would tilt towards negative outcomes, but two malefics significantly increases the likelihood of negative outcomes, both in terms of probability and in scope.

Moreover, we can see that the Mars-Saturn-Uranus pattern sets up on Biden's natal Mars (19 Libra).  This looks like a very stressful time that is likely to involve some kind of major hardship or conflict or perhaps even a military-type action.  Biden's chart is further burdened by the conjunction of Rahu (16 Taurus) to his natal Saturn.   Saturn rules the 3rd and 4th houses in his chart and therefore there is an increased risk of some kind of interruption or damage involving transportation (3rd house) or natural disasters (4th house).  Biden himself may come under intense pressure or stress. 


Weekly Market Forecast

While this week's Sun-Jupiter aspect was tilted in favour of the bulls and suggested some upside, the extent of the gains has been surprising.  Next week seems likely to be another story, however, as the Mars influence on Saturn looks bearish. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.


Photo Credit: C-Span.org

Fed signals possible rate hikes amid higher inflation

 (17 June 2021) So it turns out that inflation may be a problem after all.   After Wednesday's FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted that inflation is likely to run hotter than expected this year.  No kidding.  US home prices have increased an average of 15% since last year, with comparable rises in many countries around the world. 

While he insisted that it is likely to be transitory and will soon return to the 2% target, the Fed nonetheless moved up its timeline for two rate hikes in 2023.   Markets reacted negatively to this more hawkish stance as stocks and commodities fell while the US dollar rallied strongly. 

Stocks have generally slipped lower this week following Monday's Saturn-Uranus square aspect.  As with most aspects involving the the planet Saturn, this bearish pairing often coincides with periods of pessimism.  Saturn-Uranus hard aspects happen only infrequently with the squares occurring about once every 20 years.  Previously square aspects marked both interim and major market tops in 1977 and 2000, respectively. 

Given their intertwining retrograde cycles, Saturn and Uranus form three exact square aspects over a one-year period.  As I have noted previously, the first Saturn-Uranus in this series occurred in February-March and coincided exactly with the start of a 5% pullback.  After this second June square, a third is due in December 2021.

The fact that there are three Saturn-Uranus squares this year suggests that a major market top is now more likely in 2021.  That means we could see the beginning of bear market this year that extends into 2022.   In the short term, markets may remain more vulnerable to declines in the coming weeks.  Due to their low velocities, the Saturn-Uranus square may require a third triggering planet to more fully release its bearish payload. 

That time may well be fast approaching as Mars will oppose Saturn and square Uranus on July 1.   While there is still a chance that this second Saturn-Uranus square may not deliver any fireworks, the inclusion of Mars into the mix should give investors an additional reason for caution. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Inflation 2021: a repeat of that 70s show?

(10 June 2021) As many countries inch closer to economic re-opening, financial markets are keeping a close eye on rising inflation.  This morning's May CPI data for the US rose 5% on an annual basis, the highest since 2008 just before the meltdown.  Core inflation also rose 3.8%, which as more than expected.   Of course, the question is whether this inflation will be "transitory", to use the Fed's term, or the start of a protracted period of rising prices perhaps along the lines of the dark days of the Carter administration in the 1970s

Certainly, the Fed's transitory view is entirely plausible since there was bound to be a hangover from the huge fiscal and monetary stimulus after the Covid crisis. The bond market seems to be in this camp as yields have continued to trend downwards over the past few weeks.  And despite today's high inflation number, yields fell again with the 10-year closing at 1.45%.  If inflation was likely to increase down the road, yields would be rising rather than falling as traders would demand more premium to cover any anticipated loss of value.

And yet the planets are hinting at troubles ahead.  Saturn is due to form its second exact 90-degree square alignment with Uranus his Monday, June 14.  Readers will recall the first Saturn-Uranus square in mid-February coincided with an interim top in the stock market within one day.   Due to their respective retrograde periods, Saturn forms three square aspects with Uranus over the course of a year or so.  So next week will see the second square, with the third and final square due in December. 

All square aspects involving Saturn carry an elevated risk of some downside, although they don't always coincide with selling.  In a previous post, I analyzed the series of Saturn-Uranus squares from 1999-2000.   The first square in this series was bearish and marked the beginning of a 10% decline, while the second square lacked any clear direction.  The third square in April 2000 again coincided with a pullback.  Indeed, the extended Saturn-Uranus square period more or less coincided with the top of the 18-year long bull market. 

Interestingly, the preceding Saturn-Uranus square in 1976-1977 was also bearish.  While it did not coincide with the start of a bear market, it was nonetheless a difficult time for the market during the period of 1970s stagflation.  Markets reached an interim top in March 1976 of 4700 on the Dow during final year of the Ford administration but then declined more than 30% to 3100 by early 1978 under Jimmy Carter.

The first Saturn-Uranus square took place in July 1976 after which the market fell 10% over the next 5 months.  Stocks continued to fall to new lows through the second and third Saturn-Uranus squares in February and April of 1977.  Stocks eventually formed an interim bottom in February 1978. 

Could history repeat here in 2021 as Saturn and Uranus again form a tense 90 degree angle?   While history never exactly repeats, it does often rhyme.  The presence of two more Saturn-Uranus squares this year definitely creates a more challenging outlook for the stock market.  And with inflation ticking higher just as it did in the late 1970s, it is tempting to think that inherent economic pessimism of the Saturn-Uranus aspect could well manifest again in the coming months.  In the near term, next Monday's Saturn-Uranus aspect bears close watching as stocks are trading at all-time highs.  While bulls have the momentum on their side, further upside looks somewhat less likely in the aftermath of this aspect.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

US stocks mixed on inflation concerns

(3 June 2021) US stocks have moved sideways over the past two weeks as inflation risks continue to weigh on sentiment.  While the economic outlook is encouraging for 2021 amid re-opening and the successful vaccination campaign, some uncertainty remains.  Government income support is gradually being withdrawn in coming weeks as many states are ending the unemployment benefit top-up in an effort to get people back to work.  The winding down of fiscal stimulus could thus temporarily weaken consumer demand and undermine the strength of the recovery.

Despite rising inflation, stocks did manage to rebound in late May, albeit to a lower high.  I thought we might have seen a bit more volatility at that time, especially given the Saturn retrograde station on May 23.  That said, we have seen some modest downside this week in the wake of Mercury's retrograde station on May 29.  While retrograde stations aren't always bearish, they nonetheless carry an increased risk of downside. 

The possibility of negative outcomes is further elevated if the stationing planet (Mercury, in this case) aligns with a malefic such as Mars.  That is in fact what we has occurred this week as retrograde Mercury formed an exact 30-degree alignment with Mars.  While the pullback has been small, it is a good example of how these retrograde stations can work in forecasting the market.

Mars again figures prominently tomorrow (Friday) and early next week as it opposes Pluto.  Since Mars is often a bearish influence, there is a possibility for some further selling. 

I would also note that the Mars-Pluto opposition will activate the natal Mercury (3 Cancer) in the USA horoscope.  This is an additional negative because Mercury is a significator of commerce, trading and the stock market.   Communications and transportation may also be subject to increased disruption by this transit.  Given recent events, this Mars-Mercury transits raises the possibility of further ransomware attacks on US infrastructure. 

While there is a growing downside risk for financial markets over the next several months, it is quite possible that a major sell-off may first require the Saturn-Uranus square on June 14 to act as a trigger. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.