Stocks rally ahead of Thursday's Mercury retrograde station

(16 June 2020) Well, this is the last thing we need.  With all that is going on in the world these days, Mercury is due to turn retrograde just after midnight (EDT) on Thursday morning, June 18.  Three or four times a year, Mercury undertakes an apparent backwards journey in the night sky for a period of approximately 21 days.  The solar system's fastest planet isn't actually going backwards, of course, but only appears that way because of its different orbital speed from Earth.  Astrologers believe that Mercury retrograde periods are marked by misunderstandings, technical breakdowns, frustrations and delays.  

While Mercury retrograde periods can very often coincide with these kinds of problems, it is important not to exaggerate its importance in our daily lives.  Many people may be unaffected by the retrograde cycle, especially if the Mercury retrograde cycle does not activate any key planets in their natal horoscope.  On Thursday, Mercury will station retrograde at 20 degrees of sidereal Gemini.  If a person was born with, say, Jupiter near that point, then the Mercury retrograde station will likely be very positive and could manifest as good career news.  Conversely, if someone was born with Saturn near 20 Gemini, then this week's Mercury retrograde station is more likely to bring frustrations and setbacks related to Mercury's symbolic portfolio of commerce, computers and travel.  

Mercury will conclude its retrograde cycle at 11 Gemini on July 12.  Individuals with malefic planets like Saturn and Mars in that middle range of 11-20 degrees of Gemini, or perhaps in the opposite sign of Sagittarius, are therefore more likely to experience the classic sorts of Mercury retrograde hassles.  Other specific elements of the individual horoscope may also form positive or negative aspect with Mercury as it moves through its retrograde cycle.

In that sense, we should think about Mercury retrograde as having a stronger impact for good or ill, largely because it is moving more slowly than usual.  As a rule, the slower the planet, the stronger its impact.  That's why the time around the retrograde and direct stations are the most powerful.  When Mercury is stationary it can form an aspect with another planet for a much longer time than it ordinarily would. 


Mercury retrograde and the stock market

Nonetheless, retrograde Mercury's bad reputation is not all myth.  We can see how it manifests on our collective consciousness through its effects on the stock market.  If nothing else, the stock market is a barometer for collective human sentiment at any given time.  From my experience, Mercury retrograde cycles do have some modest correlations with down markets.  But there are two important conditions that should be noted.  First, the 3-4 days around the time of the stations (i.e. the reversal of direction) is usually the most important for markets.  Markets are not more or less likely to fall during the entire 21-day retrograde cycle.  Second, while Mercury retrograde stations may be somewhat bearish, it also matters a great deal what planets it aligns with at the time of the retrograde and direct stations. 

At the time of the last Mercury Rx station on Feb 17, 2020, Mercury formed a minor 45 degree angle with Saturn and was aspected by Rahu.  Both planets are malefics and thus stocks fell slightly on the day after the retrograde station and fell further three days after the station.  The retrograde cycle ended on March 9, 2020 as Mercury aligned closely with malefic Saturn.   Not surprisingly, this was also a bearish influence as stocks were in the midst of their Covid-19 waterfall decline. 

The previous Mercury retrograde station occurred on Oct 31, 2019.  Stocks did indeed also fall that day but rebounded the following day and continued higher thereafter.  One reason may have been that Mercury was conjunct bullish Venus at the time of the Rx station so that mitigated much of the inherent negativity of the Mercury retrograde station.  The lesson here is that not all Mercury retrograde periods are created equal.  While there seems to be a general bearish bias to them, the negative effects can be quite minor and short-lived, sometimes just one day or even less.  But if Mercury is heavily afflicted by malefic planets at the time of its retrograde or direct station, then the down move could be more significant. 

Weekly Market Forecast

This week's retrograde station looks more negative in that respect.  While Mercury turns retrograde in its own sign of Gemini (that's usually a plus actually), it will form a tense minor aspect with Saturn.  This is not a full-strength aspect so the effect may not be too strong, but it is not helpful.   Moreover, it forms the same minor 165-degree aspect with Ketu (South Lunar Node).  Significantly, the midpoint of Saturn and Ketu will be exactly opposite Mercury on Thursday and Friday.  

Another potential negative in the mix this week is that Mars will change signs on Thursday-Friday and enter Pisces.  Mars sign ingresses sometimes coincide with increases in volatility, although by itself the effect is limited.  This week, however, we will also have Mercury turning retrograde while in an unusual alignment with Saturn and Ketu.  This loads the cosmic dice in favour of some negative sentiment which could see stocks reverse lower. 

The upcoming solar eclipse this coming Sunday also has some interesting alignments that would suggest a more pessimistic mood.  The Sun-Moon conjunction of the eclipse forms a 150-degree angle with Saturn.  In the Navamsha D-9 chart, Saturn squares both the Sun and Moon.  This suggests disappointment and setbacks are more likely over the weekend which could further negatively impact sentiment going into next week.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.


Photo Credit: NASA

Understanding the Covid stock market recovery

(9 June 2020) Looking at the stock market, it's hard to believe we are even in a recession with double-digit unemployment.  And yet the last two months has seen the stock market stage a remarkable recovery following the initial pandemic shock .  After crashing more than 30% in March due to the coronavirus lockdowns, US stocks have rallied strongly with the major indexes regaining 75% of their previous losses.  Certainly, the actions of the Federal Reserve have been pivotal as trillions of dollars of QE asset purchases and overnight repos have pushed money into the higher risk assets such as the stock market. 

With the number of Covid cases now sharply falling in many countries around the world, there is legitimate hope that the worst could be over and life and the economy can return to normal.  To be sure, this is still very much a glass half-full view since a second wave of infections is still very possible.  And even if there is no second wave, it is unclear when suppression measures like social distancing and mask-wearing can end.   But can the economy and the stock market fully regain their previous levels if the virus remains a threat?

An astrological analysis provides another perspective on these questions.  While the recent gyrations of the stock market can be seen through various planetary phenomena, it is useful to look at the horoscope of the New York Stock Exchange (May 17, 1792).  The huge sell-off saw a major low in stocks on March 23.  This low coincided with a bearish conjunction of Mars and Pluto, two malefic planets symbolizing tension and anxiety.   At that time, Saturn, the most bearish planet, formed a close 120 degree angle with the Sun at 6 Taurus.  Moreover, Saturn was just one degree from its retrograde station in May, hence it had a magnified effect on the Sun in the NYSE chart. 

 

At the same time, Jupiter (29 Sagittarius) was approaching its bullish conjunction with Pluto (0 Capricorn).  This was a hint that a recovery was on the way.  But more important was that both these planets were moving towards a 120 angle with natal Mercury (2 Taurus) in the NYSE.  Jupiter-Mercury aspects are usually quite bullish.  This was another clue that a significant recovery would be forthcoming following the March low. 

So while the bearish Saturn influence waned as it moved past its exact aspect with the Sun, the bullish Jupiter influence grew as it aligned very closely with natal Mercury.  Jupiter then stationed retrograde in mid-May at 3 Capricorn.  Over the past four weeks it has again formed a close 120 degree aspect with Mercury.  Currently, it sits at 2 Capricorn and thus the positive 120 angle is still in effect as the market is at post-Covid highs.

However, over the next week, Jupiter will move to 1 Capricorn which will put it past its exact alignment with Mercury.  As a rule of thumb, alignments that have moved past exact tend to be weaker.  This suggests that the bullish energy in the NYSE chart is more likely to diminish in the coming days. 

In addition, retrograde Saturn will move back to 6 Capricorn and thus will re-create its exact bearish angle with the Sun.  So that could be a double whammy for market sentiment.  Less bullish Jupiter and more bearish Saturn. 

Overall, it suggests that the market is ripe for some kind of pullback in the next few weeks.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have continued to be generally strong in recent days, despite last Friday's difficult lunar eclipse. This week has been less positive, as today's session saw some significant selling. 

I would expect more downside this week, especially after Wednesday's Fed meeting.  The key alignment is the Mars-Neptune conjunction.  This sets up directly opposite the natal Mars in the NYSE chart.  Friday's Mars-Neptune alignment with the Moon seems more vulnerable to declines in that respect. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

Anti-racism protests spread across the US

(2 June 2020) "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others."  The events of recent days have highlighted the inherently messy nature of the US political system as ongoing anti-racist protests have often descended into chaotic rioting and looting in many cities across the country.   The protests began following the death of George Floyd, an unarmed African-American, while in police custody in Minneapolis last week. 

The civil unrest has forced many cities to impose curfews and call out the National Guard.  President Donald Trump has encouraged governors and mayors to get tougher on the protests but so far the mostly-Democratic controlled cities have been reluctant to come down too hard for fear of making matters worse.  Trump has threatened to use regular army troops to quell the unrest but so far it remains only a threat.  But the protests enjoy a fairly broad public sympathy so what began as an anti-racism protest may be morphing into a wider protest movement against the Trump presidency. 

The astrological signature for the current unrest is clearly seen in the Mars-Sun-Venus alignment.  In recent days, we have seen an unusual pattern whereby Mars, the malefic planet of aggression and conflict, is aspecting both the Sun and Venus in Taurus.  The Sun (government, authority) and Venus (harmony, comity) also happen to be conjunct at this time, thus the Mars aspect damages them both simultaneously.  Both the government and the police are coming under intense scrutiny at this time and all notions of Venusian harmony are in short supply. 

The reason the impact of this pattern is focused in the US at this time is perhaps because of significant afflictions in the Inauguration horoscope of Donald Trump (Jan 20, 2017).  The Inauguration chart has an Ascendant (Lagnesh) of 20 Aries so the Mars-Sun-Venus alignment is activating that degree by hitting the cusps of the 11th (friendship, ambition) and 2nd houses (security, fixed assets) with Mars also aspecting the 5th (youth, recreation) and 6th house cusps (open enemies, illness).  This is a very apt planetary configuration for conflict and national outrage that is being driven mostly by young people. 

And we should remember that Saturn (7 Capricorn) is still very much in conjunction with the Sun (6 Capricorn) and underscores how beleaguered the Trump White House is at this time.  The Sun represents Trump in this chart and the ongoing Saturn conjunction reflects the barrage of criticism toward him and his inability to get the upper hand in this matter. 

The protests are likely to continue in some form over the coming days as Mars will move towards its conjunction with its natal position at 0 Pisces on June 18.  This looks like an intensifying of the current crisis, perhaps including a more explicit military development.   

Interestingly, the likelihood of the protests continuing is also seen in Trump's personal horoscope.  The Saturn influence is still in effect here as it sits on his 6th house cusp indicating blockages and a defensive posture against open enemies.  But look at the ongoing Sun-Mars square in transit.  It will set up against his Sun-Rahu-Uranus-Ketu-Moon alignment (yes, he was born on a lunar eclipse) from about June 11 to June 15, very close to the date of his next birthday. 

So while the Mars-Sun-Venus alignment will only remain close at hand for a couple more days, Mars will continue to aspect the Sun for several more days after that.  This will keep energy and aggressive tendencies higher than normal.  And since the Mars-Sun square will activate both Trump's chart and the Inauguration chart, it seems likely that the protests, chaos and rioting could continue for a while yet. 



Weekly Market Forecast

Despite the domestic turmoil in the US, markets have generally moved higher over the past week as the focus remains on the post-lockdown reopening.  I thought we might have some downside from last week's Mercury-Rahu conjunction and the increased Mars influence this week but this has yet to manifest. 

This week could still see some downside given this ongoing Mars influence.  However, I would think that Friday's lunar eclipse is perhaps a better candidate for some selling.  Mars will form a double square (or T-square) configuration with the Sun, Moon and Venus.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Post-Covid: China gets belligerent in India and Hong Kong

(26 May 2020)  There is an old adage in sports that says: 'the best defense is a good offense.'  Recent events suggest that China may well be taking that view to heart as it has come under a storm of protest over its mishandling and deceptions surrounding Covid-19.  The cover-up of the initial outbreak in Wuhan cost valuable time and allowed the virus to spread throughout the world and has led to the current disastrous pandemic. 

But instead of addressing the criticisms, China has embarked on a program of belligerent interference with its neighbours, presumably as a means of distracting attention away from its wrongdoing.  Over the past week, China has renewed its long-simmering border dispute with India in Ladakh through the unprovoked introduction of thousands of PLA troops onto Indian territory.  Also, Beijing has proposed a new tough security bill for Hong Kong that would violate the 'One Country, Two Systems' agreement with the UK from 1997.  The proposed bill would allow China to take a stronger stand against ongoing protests and accelerate the gradual absorption of Hong Kong by the Chinese Communist surveillance state. 

Whatever the geopolitical endgame for Beijing may be, we can see a higher than normal level of aggression in the current transits in the horoscope of China (October 1, 1949).  There are three key sources of affliction in the chart.  First, we can see that Saturn is in the Capricorn Ascendant and just one degree from exact.  This may reflect its level of inner frustration and disappointment as it tries to move out of its lockdown-induced economic recession.  Saturn conjunct the Ascendant is a typical indication for losses and blocked progress and therefore it is no surprise that China is warning that its economy will likely shrink in 2020. 

And we can see that Ketu (South Lunar Node) is in close conjunction with the 12th house cusp representing foreign places.  Ketu is often a disruptive influence to whatever house or planet is it associated with, so its connection with foreign things is quite apt as it is confronting a diplomatic catastrophe over Covid-19 with US President Trump openly accusing China of deception and malfeasance, and now it is facing more negative consequences for its actions in Ladakh,India and Hong Kong. 

Both Ketu and Saturn are relatively slow-moving influences which have been in place for the past two to three months.  Indeed, they are important reasons why China suffered initially with the coronavirus outbreak.  But it is the Mars opposition transit to Saturn that highlights China's latest assertion of its power.  Mars (15 Aquarius) is closing in on its exact opposition with Saturn (20 Leo) next week.  Saturn is lagnesh, lord of the first house (Capricorn), and therefore has a disproportionately large influence over the chart as a whole.  Mars is the planet of action and aggression, of course, and its opposition aspect tends towards situations of conflict rather than compromise. 

With the Mars-Saturn aspect tightening in the coming days, I would expect these tensions to increase, at least until next week.  Early next week (June 1-3) look more volatile in this respect as both Venus and the Sun will align with the natal Saturn.  This suggests situations of maximum tension.  Interestingly, the exact Mars opposition aspect to Saturn on June 3 also features transiting Mars coming under the 8th house aspect of natal Mars (21 Cancer) almost exactly.  This double Mars influence suggests the increased possibility of violence and military action. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have generally drifted sideways over the past week since my last post.  Thus far, the Venus retrograde cycle has not proved decisive either way, although it will remain in effect until June 25.  The US market tested some key technical levels today as the S&P 500 finally tagged the 200-day moving average and the 3000 level.  It also hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.  While the rebound has been strong, there are now some more compelling technical arguments for a pullback at this resistance level.

As it happens, the planets look less positive this week and therefore would appear to support some kind of a pullback.  Mercury conjoins Rahu (North Lunar Node) on Wednesday and Thursday and then Mercury aligns with Saturn on Friday.  This is not to say that all three days will be down, but it does suggest that there is some potential for some profit-taking.  And as hinted at in the above discussion about China, the Mars alignment with the Sun and Venus early next week also seems less commensurate with gains.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Photo of Indian-Chinese border in Ladakh: Jeevan Singla

Stock rebounding on vaccine hopes as Venus turns retrograde

(19 May 2020) Financial markets remain generally steady this week as investors are focusing their hopes on the future, both in terms of the economy and a vaccine.   US economic data is as bleak as ever with some GDP projections pointing to an unprecedented 35% decline in Q2.  This kind of slowdown would put 2020 on par with the Great Depression of the 1930s.  But with the Fed pouring trillions of dollars into the system, the S&P 500 has managed to climb back to that significant 61.8% retracement level, just below 3000 and the 200-day moving average.  Markets in Europe and Asia continue to lag as capital flows disproportionately into US stocks as a safe haven in these uncertain times.  India has been particularly weak as lockdowns have been extended beyond their original expiry date. 

They say Rule #1 in the stock market is "don't fight the Fed".  If the Fed is intent on propping up a overleveraged or failing financial system, it is usually futile to resist it efforts.  The thinking goes that if Jay Powell is actively cutting interest rates, buying up bonds and other assets, and providing an unlimited supply of funds at the overnight repo window, the market will eventually go up.  In that sense, no matter how bad the economic fundamentals get (mass unemployment, recession, bankruptcy), liquidity is more important for determining stock prices -- at least in the short term.  And since the March 23 low, it has been hard to argue with this logic.  Stocks have rebounded energetically since March's waterfall decline.

So if the economy is reopening as Covid-19 comes under greater control, then surely it is now full steam ahead?  Well, maybe not.  The economic damage done by the global lockdowns cannot be erased overnight as consumer demand has suffered a huge blow as millions of jobs may be lost for years.  And doubts also remain as the astrological outlook is uncertain.  Specifically, Venus turned retrograde last week on May 13.

Venus, the planet of luxury, value, love and beauty, began its once every two year retrograde cycle last Wednesday.  According to traditional astrological theory, the Venus retrograde cycle is a time when asset values come under increased scrutiny and can be subject to reassessment.  This can coincide with a period of reflection about the value of money and assets such as stocks.  The Venus retrograde cycle lasts for about 40 days and will remain in place until June 25.  Venus Rx is something of a wild card for financial markets as previous retrograde cycles have often corresponded with trend reversals and pullbacks. 

Year	Venus Rx start	Venus Rx stop	% change
2020	May 13	June 25	???
2018	October 5	Nov 16	-6%
2017	March 3	April 15	-2%
2015	July 24	Sep 6	-7%
2013	Dec 21	Feb 1	-1%
2012	May 15	June 27	+1%
2010	Oct 7	Nov 19	+2%
2009	March 6	April 18	+32%

As the table shows, the last four Venus retrograde periods have all coincided with market declines.  The prior Venus Rx period occurred between 5 October and 16 November 2018 and marked the start of a major correction in global markets that lasted until Christmas 2018.  While other Venus retrograde cycles produced declines of varying sizes, the clearly negative association is significant. 

On the other hand, markets can sometimes actually rise during Venus's backwards movement through the sky.  This occurred in October 2010 and most famously in early March 2009 just days before the critical 666 low in the S&P 500.  But on both those occasions at least, the Venus retrograde cycle marked a change in the prevailing trend from down to up.  In that sense, as Venus changed its apparent direction, the market trend similarly changed.

In the current period, stocks have generally been rising so even the prospect of a "change in trend" effect suggests that some kind of downside is more likely than not in the days and weeks ahead.   Most technical analysis would suggest that stocks are due for a pullback anyway as more bear market rallies meet resistance near the 200-day moving average. We are getting very close to that level now as the 200 DMA sits at 2998, which is just 2% higher than Tuesday's close.  So even if US stocks pushed a bit higher in the coming days, the Venus retrograde period is likely to act as a drag on sentiment as asset values get a sober second look into late June.  I would therefore expect stocks to be lower by the end of the Venus retrograde cycle on June 25.

As far as the rest of this week goes, there is the likelihood of some downside tomorrow (Wednesday) as Mercury aligns with Saturn.  The rest of the week looks mixed as the Sun-Saturn alignment on Thursday looks less iffy.  However, the late week Mercury-Venus conjunction will align with Neptune on Friday and should coincide with some upside. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

Fauci sounds note of caution on US reopening

(12 May 2020)  America's top doctor has warned of more "suffering and death" if the US reopens too quickly.  Dr. Anthony Fauci testified before the Senate on Tuesday and warned that the economic reopening may be happening too fast and risks further outbreaks of Covid-19.  Fauci's note of caution contrasted sharply with President Trump's optimism and desire for the country to get back to normal and end the shutdown.  Fauci's downbeat tone took the stock market lower as the indexes fell by up to 2% today.

To quote Winston Churchill, we may only be at the "end of the beginning" for this coronavirus.  As I noted in last week's post, there is a very real possibility of additional waves in September and even in December.  We can take another perspective on this question by examining the Inauguration chart for the current president, Donald Trump.  Last week, we saw how afflictions to Trump's natal horoscope in September and December suggested the possibility that the pandemic may not just disappear in the coming weeks. 

We get much the same story from an analysis of the Trump Inauguration horoscope on January 20, 2017.  The coronavirus pandemic prompted the declaring of a national emergency on March 13, 2020.  We can see that the Inauguration horoscope was heavily afflicted in March.  Mars was conjunct Pluto (coercion, intense conflict), Saturn was conjunct the Sun (disappointment, weakness, restriction) and Ketu (South Lunar Node) was conjunct Mercury.  This affliction by Ketu was very appropriate since Mercury is the lord of the 6th house ruling the health of the nation.

Due to its retrograde station yesterday at 7 Capricorn, Saturn has remained in close conjunction with the natal Sun (6 Capricorn) throughout the first two months of this national emergency.  The Saturn-Sun conjunction reflects the intractable problems facing the US as well as the loss of vitality and injury to the national well-being.  It should also be seen as a reflection of the criticism and pressure that Trump faces since he is also represented by the Sun (leader).  Saturn will remain in close conjunction with the Sun through the month of May an into June as well.

The difficulty for the US there is another focus of affliction in August and September.  Saturn will end its current retrograde cycle at 1 degree of Capricorn in September.  This will form a near-exact 60 degree aspect to Mars (0 Pisces) in the Inauguration chart.  Mars rules Aries, of course, which is lord of the 1st house signifying the nation as a whole.  This may be seen as either another affliction to the health of the nation (i.e. virus outbreak) or as a possible conflict or war-type situation.  Both are likely to be negative influences on financial markets. 

At the same time, transiting Ketu (29 Scorpio) will be conjunct Saturn in September. This suggests another layer of affliction which may be separate from the pandemic.  To be sure, it may simply represent more economic troubles from the virus.  But it could also signify some upset or erosion (Ketu) to the pillars or foundations of the nation (Saturn).  If the virus re-emerges as a problem in September, then there is talk that the November elections may have to be re-scheduled or altered in some way.  This Ketu-to-Saturn transit is a possible manifestation of this level of interruption of the status quo.  Trump looks to be under intense pressure from this transit in any event, so we should keep an open mind about the possibility of some major changes occurring in the US during the fall.  Again, this looks like bad news for financial markets regardless of how it manifests. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks generally went sideways last week as the promise of endless Fed QE largely offset any nervousness in the stock market.  This neutral to bullish outcome was not unexpected as I thought the planets looked fairly mixed last week. The late week Venus-Mercury-Neptune seemed fairly bullish and suggested the likelihood of some temporary upside at least. 

This week has started off on a more negative note, however, as US markets sold off on Tuesday after Fauci's sober reminder about the likely trajectory of the virus.  The negative start to the week was in keeping with my expectations.  Saturn turned retrograde on Monday, while Venus is due to turn retrograde on Wednesday and Jupiter turns retrograde on Thursday.  Retrograde stations aren't always negative influences, however, but they can represent turning points in sentiment nonetheless.  Usually, retrograde stations still need to be assessed on the nature of the alignments they form.

There are some bearish-looking alignments this week that may have yet to manifest.  Mars will align with Saturn and Ketu throughout the week so further downside looks likely.  Thursday's Moon-Mars conjunction could make that day worse than Wednesday or Friday.  Early next week doesn't look much better as Mercury aligns with Saturn.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

COVID-19: how likely is a second wave?

(5 May 2020)  It seems we are beginning a new chapter in this coronavirus pandemic.  As the lockdowns are slowly being relaxed and economies start to reopen, we have to adapt to a new, constrained reality for the foreseeable future.  A vaccine seems very unlikely anytime soon, and many experts think it may be several years away, if it ever comes at all.  A more effective treatment protocol may be a more plausible path back to normal life, but there is little sign of that at this point. 

This means that we may have to live with compulsory social distancing and mask-wearing for some time to come.  While summer weather could bring further reduction in infections and deaths, there is still the threat of a second wave of the virus which could force another lockdown.  Some observers worry that this could happen as soon as full reopening takes place and people begin to mingle in public once again.  Other experts wonder if a second wave could come during the fall when people move indoors with the colder weather. 

From an astrological perspective, a second wave seems likely, at least in the US.  While there are a few ways we could examine this question, let's look at the horoscope of President Trump.  Trump's chart is the symbolic embodiment for the US as a whole so when Trump's chart is well-disposed, the US is more likely to be doing well.  And when Trump's chart is afflicted by malefic planets, the country as a whole is likely to be suffering in some way. 

The outbreak of the coronavirus in the US in March and April coincided with Saturn's transit to Trump's equal 6th house cusp (6 Capricorn).   The 6th house is the house that governs health matters so the Saturn transit was a clear signal of difficulty.  In addition, transiting Pluto (0 Capricorn) was exactly opposite Trump's natal Saturn (0 Cancer), which is the lord of the 6th house (6L).  Like Saturn, Pluto is considered to be a malefic planet, especially when in "hard" aspect (0, 90,180 degrees). 

It is perhaps not surprising that the US has had a very difficult time getting the virus under control since Saturn is stationing at 7 Capricorn next week and thus still very close to Trump's 6th house cusp representing health.  After Saturn turns retrograde on May 11, it will gradually move away from the 6th house cusp thus offering the real possibility that the outbreak will improve over the summer.

However, the potential for a second wave may be seen in the placement of Saturn when it concludes its retrograde cycle in September.  Saturn returns to direct motion on September 29 when it stations at 1 Capricorn.  The problem here is that this will almost exactly oppose his natal Saturn (0 Cancer). 

To be sure, the 6th house cusp will no longer be closely afflicted, so that could reflect a less serious second wave.  But the Saturn-to-Saturn opposition aspect does nonetheless increase the likelihood of more health-related concerns for Trump, and hence for the US as a whole.  Due to Saturn's slow velocity before the station,  its malefic influence may be manifest a few weeks before the exact station on Sep 29 and perhaps as early as August when Mars turns retrograde. 

We can also see that transiting Ketu will be conjunct Trump's Moon at this time and this could reflect disruption (Ketu) involving the people (Moon).  This is another negative factor in the mix that makes a second wave more likely in the early fall. 

I would also note that December and January 2021 may see further health concerns as Saturn will again conjoin the 6th house cusp at 6 Capricorn while Pluto (0 Capricorn) will again exactly oppose natal Saturn (6L).  This dual affliction to health-related chart points could mean that there may even be a third wave of COVID infections in the US.  And yet the presence of Jupiter with Saturn on the 6th house cusp may introduce a different energy into the equation.  It's still not a clearly positive pattern, but perhaps there will be some new sense of hope that the worst may be over.  Let's hope so. 

As this analysis is US-centered, I will try to post something soon on the possible paths forward for other countries, such as India, UK and Germany.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks were mixed last week as the late week Mercury-Uranus conjunction appeared to offer some respite from the ongoing Saturn-Ketu alignment.  Markets have been more bearish to start this week, as Mars entered the sign of Aquarius and aligned with Pluto on Monday and Tuesday.  Asian and European markets have suffered the most from these influences, with US stocks faring comparatively better. 

The rest of the week looks mixed.  The bullish alignment of Mercury with Venus and Neptune seems likely to deliver at least one up day on either Wednesday and Thursday.  Thursday is probably the better of the two days on paper, as the Moon will sit opposite Mercury in the morning during the US trading day.  Friday could be a make-or-break day as April's US jobs report is due. 

Most observers are expecting a huge jump in unemployment but no one really knows how big it will be or how the market will react.  Unfortunately, the planets lack any clear indications on Friday.  Mercury will be past its alignment so that lessens the available bullish energy and offers a slight bearish bias.  But it is far from clear and still could go either way.  Next week's alignment of Mars with Saturn and Ketu looks more obviously bearish, however.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.