Aspects in focus ahead of possible Saturn trigger sequence

(22 April 2019) Aspects are one of the central building blocks of astrology.  Briefly stated, an aspect is an astrologically significant angle between two planets that is said to produce an observable real-world outcome.  If Jupiter is conjunct your Moon with no degrees of separation, then that's good.  If Mars is square and therefore separated by 90 degrees from your Moon, then that's bad.

And yet as fundamental as aspects are, there is a wide range of opinion about them.  As a continuous written body of knowledge, Vedic astrology has a more specific set of rules governing planetary aspects.  While all planets cast a full-strength aspect on the planets opposite, different planets have the capacity to cast different aspects.  For example, Saturn casts a forward sextile (60 degree) and a backwards square (270 degrees) but not a forward square (90 degrees), nor a trine (120 degree aspect). 

Western astrology has a far less unified view of aspects.  Depending on one's preferences, aspects can consist of any grouping of angular divisors of the 360 degree circle.  So conjunction, opposition, square, trine, etc. are almost universally used but many astrologers also use the septile (51.4 degrees), and quintile (72 degrees) and so on.  Other 15 degree divisions derived from the circle are also commonly used such as the semisquare (45 degrees), the sesquiduadrate (135 degrees).  Sometimes this 15-degree multiple grouping is extended to include the unnamed 75, 105, and 165 degree aspects.

But the higher the number of possible of aspects, the greater the possibility for confusion.  This can create a situation where there are too many variables which increases the risk of false positives: aspect hits with no obvious real-world manifestation.  If every planet is always in aspect with some other planet, then how is it possible to predict anything?  Good question! 


Weekly Market Forecast

This week could be a useful test of some of these ideas on aspects.  As I have written previously, the stock market looks ripe for a decline soon.  The slow-moving Saturn-Ketu conjunction at 26 Sagittarius is one very obviously bearish indication that is now in place.  It will remain within range for the next four to five months.  But before stocks can make a significant move, there usually needs to be a trigger by a faster-moving planet which can release some of the energy held within the pattern of the slow-moving planets.  We will get a potential trigger sequence this week. 

First off, the Moon will conjoin Saturn and Ketu (aka. South Lunar Node) on Thursday during the US trading day.  That looks quite negative on paper as the Moon combines poorly with both Saturn and Ketu and can create an atmosphere of fear and pessimism.  Just from that basic conjunction alone, we would expect stocks to fall fairly close to the time of day of the conjunction.  And yet, we can also see that there are two "minor" Western aspects to Saturn-Ketu: 1) Venus forms a 75 degree angle with Saturn-Ketu on Wednesday the 24th during US trading hours and 2) the Sun forms a 105 degree angle with Saturn-Ketu on Thursday.  Thursday then has a double whammy with both the Sun and Moon forming some kind of alignment with the malefic Saturn-Ketu pairing.  Perhaps if Wednesday is also lower than that would partially validate the negative impact of the 75-degree Venus-Saturn aspect.

So it seems the cosmic dice are loaded for a pullback this week around the time of these potential triggering aspects.  The presence of Thursday's Moon conjunction means the test of these lesser 15 degree multiples isn't perfect.  If stocks do fall on Thursday, then it will still be possible to cite the obvious role of the Moon in the whole set up.  And yet I would suggest that many different two-planet angular separations involving Saturn will tend to be bearish, even if the Moon isn't present.  Saturn is a bearish planet, full stop.

In addition, we can see that Mars will form a 45-degree semisquare aspect with Uranus on Friday.  Mars will also be very close to a typical square with Neptune on that day, so as usual, these are not ideal experimental conditions.  This will be another theoretically bearish influence on market sentiment, even if it is from a minor aspect.  So if stocks fall on Friday then that Mars-Uranus may be part of the reason. 

While we could see further market gains tomorrow (Tuesday) on the Moon-Jupiter conjunction and 30-degree Sun-Venus alignment, I think the week will be more challenging for financial markets.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

Saturn conjoins Ketu: the calm before the storm?

(15 April 2019) Financial markets appear to be on auto-pilot these days as the grind higher continues.  After its scary Christmas low, the bull market would appear to back on track against a background of easy central bank money (i.e. debt) and the promise of a US-China trade deal that, like Godot, never seems to arrive. The strength of the rebound in the first quarter was not unexpected from the astrological point of view given the extended dominance of Jupiter. 

When Jupiter is strong through alignment with other planets or by sign placement, stocks usually rise.  That was definitely the case as Jupiter aligned with Neptune in January and then with Pluto in February and March.  Jupiter then stationed retrograde last week on April 10 in Sagittarius, a sign in which it does particularly well.  But now that Jupiter is moving backwards towards Scorpio, we may be on the verge of a shift in the terrain. 

If the winter was all about Jupiter, it seems more likely that the spring will be focused on Saturn.  Saturn is the yang to Jupiter's yin and is typically a bearish influence when it is prominent.  The bear may be wakening from hibernation when Saturn turns retrograde on April 30 and begins its annual four-month backward journey through the sky.  While the Saturn retrograde cycle is neither bullish or bearish for stocks, collective sentiment can become more negative if Saturn forms tense alignments with other planets. 

As it happens, this is very much the case here in 2019.  Saturn will turn retrograde while in a very close conjunction with the South Lunar Node. (aka Ketu).  In traditional astrology, both Eastern and Western, Ketu is considered to be an influence that undermines the material world in favour of the spiritual or transcendent realms.  In market terms, Ketu is bearish.  So the question is: what happens when two naturally bearish planets like Saturn and Ketu are in conjunction?


Saturn-Ketu conjunctions: pessimism and the disruption of structures

While markets are not always bearish when these two planets combine, there is a greater risk of declines during the time of their conjunction.  As Saturn conjoins Ketu about once every 11-12 years, this malefic pairing has coincided with some notably negative events.  The last time Saturn conjoined Ketu was in October 2007, right at the time of the market peak before the financial meltdown.  The top of market took place on October 11, while Saturn was conjunct Ketu (True South Node) less than two weeks later on October 23.   Stocks were beginning to weaken under this conjunction and US stocks would eventually fall more than 50% over the next 18 months.  While we certainly wouldn't say it was only because Saturn was aligning with Ketu, it is an appropriately bearish planetary pattern for the start of a recession and a bear market.

The previous Saturn-Ketu conjunction took place in early January 1997.   Stocks were actually pretty flat during the approach and separation of this conjunction.  This is a useful counter example which reminds us that no single factor is enough to determine outcomes.  Each factor therefore becomes necessary, but not sufficient.  Stocks were also mostly flat in the previous conjunction in January 1985.  Actually, the market finally began to rally again after Saturn had begun to separate from Ketu in mid-January.  So we should be aware that there are benign versions of this conjunction that can point to non-bearish outcomes in the markets.

But before that, the Saturn-Ketu conjunction was front and center in the 1973-4 bear market.  Due to the Saturn retrograde cycle, the Saturn-Ketu conjunction occurred twice -- once in September 1973 and then again in February 1974.  Much of the world was in the grip of the Middle East oil embargo, inflation, and deep recession while the US suffered the added burden of the ongoing Watergate scandal which would eventually see President Nixon resign in August 1974.  And yes, history could repeat itself in 2019 with Trump coming under pressure to leave office as Saturn again conjoins Ketu.  Since Saturn symbolizes society's structures and institutions, Ketu's influence undermines them and can bring about sudden changes. 

The parallels with 1973-4 are worth taking seriously since Saturn is also going to have an extended conjunction with Ketu in 2019 because of its retrograde cycle.  Saturn is conjunct with Ketu now and will remain in very close proximity to Ketu until October.  This means there will be a longer time window for any latent negative sentiment to be triggered by passing alignments with other bad planets, such as Mars.  "Sell in May and go away"?  Or maybe sell in April to beat the rush to the exits.

Just to round out this brief historical survey, it is worth recalling that the preceding Saturn-Ketu conjunction took place at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962.  Stocks fell 7% during the critical period of geopolitical uncertainty of October 16-28 when the world was teetering on the precipice of a nuclear confrontation.

And while the October 1950 conjunction was a nothingburger in terms of stocks (although the Korean War had just begun in June of that year), the previous Saturn-Ketu alignment occurred in late August 1939, less than a week before World War Two began.  As in 1973-4, Saturn would undergo its entire retrograde cycle while in close conjunction with Ketu during the second half of 1939 and into January 1940.  US markets were actually flat-to-positive for much of this Saturn-Ketu period, even if they would eventually go on to lose 40% of their value in the coming two years in the depth of that conflict.

As we can see, not all Saturn-Ketu conjunctions are created equal.  It seems that the ones where Saturn is retrograde and thus the conjunction is extended for a period of months instead of weeks are particularly troublesome.  Since we will experience one of those potentially more damaging extended conjunctions in 2019, I would think the chances for significant declines in stocks are much higher, if not in the April-October period, then in the months following the conjunction period. 

While this isn't quite bullet-proof actionable evidence, it should still be a warning to investors who are heavily invested in this bull market rally.  Maybe this really is the calm before the storm. 


Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks have been 'melting higher' over the past two weeks since my last post while other global markets have also stayed fairly buoyant.   It is possible the upward bias may shift toward a more sideways or indecisive market for a little while here before things begin to fall apart.  This week is shortened for Good Friday and will likely feature some downside.  I think Wednesday's Moon-Mercury opposition could coincide with some selling as Mercury is more vulnerable due to its transit of Pisces, its sign of debilitation.  The nervousness could begin to manifest on Tuesday afternoon, however.  I wouldn't expect too much damage just yet but it may begin to get the attention of some market participants. 

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Can the market rally continue after Mercury enters Pisces?

(2 April 2019) Stocks have moved higher over the past week on hints that the long-awaited US-China trade deal may be getting closer to completion.  As the month of April begins, the Dow has again pushed above 26,000 matching its February high.  Indian stocks have fared even better as the BSE Sensex set a new all-time record high today of 39,056.  While economic growth threatens to stall the economies of the US and Europe, Indian stocks have outperformed because of a significantly higher growth rate and improving investment climate under the Modi government.  While it is possible the results of the upcoming elections could change that favourable equation, the default expectation is for Modi to return to power.

These gains are in keeping with expectations as I suggested that last week's entry of Jupiter into sidereal Sagittarius was likely to correlate with some upside.  The bullish outlook was even more likely due to the midweek Venus-Uranus-Chiron alignment.  This prevailing optimism is a reflection of the approaching Jupiter retrograde station on April 10.  As I have noted previously, stocks were likely to trend higher leading into that date due to the generally bullish influence of Jupiter. 

But all this optimism may not last.  Jupiter's influence is likely to wane fairly soon after April 10.  And as it happens, Mercury begins its transit of sidereal Pisces on April 11.  (Please note that I use the traditional Indian sidereal zodiac and not the Western tropical zodiac to calculate sign transits.)  This is a potentially negative influence on the stock market because Mercury is said to do poorly in the sign of Pisces (the Fish).   Mercury is the planet of logic and analytical discrimination and is closely associated with commercial activities such as trading and investing.  Pisces has an almost diametrically opposite symbolism of empathy, sensitivity, intuition, and transcendent knowledge.  Since the energies of Mercury do not fit well in Pisces, it is said to be debilitated in this sign. 

In terms of financial astrology, Mercury's transit of Pisces has a somewhat bearish effect.  To be clear, this transit is only one factor out of many and therefore is usually not the determining factor of whether the market rises or falls.  But recent transits through Pisces suggests the market does relatively worse during its two or three week transit period.  And even if it finishes higher by the end of the Pisces transit, there is often a pullback of some size during the transit.

 

 

Year	Mercury in Pisces (entry/exit)	Net result
2014	April 4 - 19	-1.5%
2015	Mar 28 - Apr 11	+2.0%
2016	Mar 19 - Apr 2	+1.3%
2017	Mar 10 - 26	-1.5%
2018	Mar 1 - May 9 (incl. Rx)	-1.0%
2019	Apr 11 - May 2	???

Indeed, some Pisces transit periods have been positive as in 2015 and 2016.  And yet there is usually a good reason why stocks might rise in those anomalous Mercury-in-Pisces periods.  In 2015, Mercury was conjunct the Sun and Uranus alongside Ketu and all of those planets were aspected by bullish Jupiter in Cancer, its sign of exaltation.  Overall, that is a classic astrological signature for a rising stock market.  In 2016, Mercury was also conjunct the Sun and Uranus so this set up a more bullish baseline for Mercury's transit through Pisces.

Fast forward to today.  From April 11 to May 2, Mercury will again transit Pisces.  Besides the approaching Saturn retrograde station in late April, this is another reason to expect a rise in volatility.  Also we can see the situation of Mercury will be quite mixed.  Uranus has moved out of Pisces and into Aries now so it lacks that bullish co-factor.  Mercury's dispositor, Jupiter, is strong in its own sign of Sagittarius, so that could support sentiment somewhat.  However, we should note that Jupiter will move back into the less commodious confines of Scorpio on April 24 so that could have somewhat negative knock-on effect upon Mercury.

The bottom line is the stock market will be more prone to declines in April, especially after the Jupiter station on the 10th and Mercury enters Pisces on the 11th.

 

The outlook for this week is also not looking great.  We could eke out another up day on Wednesday (Apr 3) but the late week looks less positive as Mercury is aspected by Saturn while the Sun and Moon are in a tense 90-degree alignment with Saturn.  Friday's US jobs report is therefore more likely to correlate with some downside.

For a more detailed analysis, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Mueller finds no evidence of Russia-Trump conspiracy; Jupiter enters Sagittarius

(24 March 2019) They don't call Jupiter the Great Benefic for nothing.  Just ask President Donald Trump.  Today, US Special Counsel Robert Mueller finally handed down his report into the possible conspiracy between the Russian government and Trump campaign during the 2016 election.  Mueller found that there was no evidence for a conspiracy although he did not exonerate Trump for possible obstruction of justice charges.  While the full details of the report are not yet known, the initial impact has been positive for Trump and his beleaguered administration.

While I still expect the other shoe to drop for the Trump administration later this year, I was not surprised by this finding.  Trump's horoscope is looking pretty good these days, mostly due to the favourable placement of transiting Jupiter.  Jupiter (29 Scorpio) is slowing down now ahead of its retrograde station on April 10.  It is in close conjunction with his Moon (28 Scorpio) and also activates his Sun (29 Taurus) by opposition.  So this Jupiter transit was doubly positive for Trump since it aligned with both the Moon and Sun.  And with the upcoming station so close at hand at 0 Sagittarius, the transit was more likely to coincide with significant developments that would elevate his status and power.  The conjunction of Mars (1 Taurus) with his Midheaven (10th house cusp) was a very appropriate accent on the events of the day as Mars/10th house transits are often positive.

So is that it?  Is Trump now free and clear?  I don't think so. The summer still looks like his most difficult period as the protective effects of Jupiter diminish as it moves into the background in his chart.  Saturn will become more dominant once again as it will align with his Ascendant for several months around the time of its direct station.

Trump may well fall back into the soup later this week when Mars squares its natal position on Wednesday and Thursday. Interestingly, Mercury will end its retrograde cycle at the same time in an unusual conjunction with Neptune.  This will align with Trump's Ascendant and could coincide with some deception or confusion regarding communication.  Mercury-Neptune conjunctions are notorious for situations of confusion and deception and the particular placement of this conjunction at 22 Aquarius makes me think that Trump will suffer in some way.  New evidence against him may well come to light.

Any new developments this week are unlikely to completely undo the feeling of relief in the Trump camp but it could well indicate that the other investigations by the SDNY and the House of Representatives will get new life.  Whatever happens, I would expect his situation to significantly worsen by June.  His next solar return chart (June 14 2019) is extremely tense and suggests that his job may well be at stake. As astrology teaches us, what Jupiter gives Saturn can take away. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Jupiter's entry into Sagittarius could also help the stock market this week.   Stocks looked shaky last week following a fairly downbeat Fed statement on Wednesday.  While Jay Powell promised no more rate hikes in 2019, his more pessimistic tone about the US economy caught some investors off-guard.  The fragile state of the economy suggests the low rate environment will remain in place indefinitely and a rate cut could happen as soon as June.

Jupiter enters sidereal Sagittarius on Wednesday according to the Krishnamurti ayanamsha (Friday according to Lahiri) so I would expect some upside this week.  Tuesday's Moon-Jupiter conjunction may be the most bullish day on paper in that respect. Venus aligns with Uranus and Chiron on Wednesday so that may also provide a boost to sentiment.  The late week Mercury-Neptune conjunction is more of a question mark, however.  If stocks are up by Wednesday, then that might translate into some profit taking later in the week.  At this point, next week also looks somewhat more bearish as Mars aligns with Uranus and Chiron while Mercury is aspected by Saturn.  Gains may therefore be short-lived.

The end of this impressive post-Christmas rally may be getting rather close now.  Jupiter turns retrograde in early April (on April 10th) so that could prove to be significant.  I would not expect a reversal exactly on that date, however, but rather look as the month as a whole as having a higher potential for a change in the up trend.

For a more detailed analysis, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Markets await Fed decision tomorrow

(19 March 2019) The Federal Reserve meets tomorrow to issue its latest policy pronouncements on the state of the US economy.  Financial markets are not anticipating any changes in interest rates but Chair Jay Powell's language will be watched carefully as usual.  Since the Fed suddenly reversed itself in early January to a more dovish stance (i.e. no more hikes), stock markets have risen sharply as the low current interest rate environment can keep the debt-driven expansion afloat a while longer. 

While the continued low rates are good news for the markets, the economic data is starting to show signs of a slowdown.  A recession in the US is looking increasingly possible within the next 6-12 months.  Investors now have to weigh the relative benefit of the Fed's cheap money with the likelihood of lower corporate earnings. 

It is unclear what tone Powell will strike.  If he chooses to emphasize the slowdown in the economy, it could scare investors out of stocks.  He may also announce an end to QT (quantitative tightening) which has been reducing the Fed's balance sheet by selling the assets it bought during QE (2008-2014).  The end to the QT unwinding would be bullish, as long as the rest of his message didn't stray too far from his previous upbeat remarks about the economy. 

The planetary situation for tomorrow suggests a likely emphasis on prudence and caution.  Retrograde Mercury will fall under the exact aspect of Saturn tomorrow and this is more likely to symbolize cautious actions based on methodical analysis.  It is possible to see this both ways.  Caution may mean he is still very dovish with a possible end to QT.  But caution may also mean a bias towards prudent fiscal management which would tend to suggest a more hawkish approach in keeping with his preference for rate normalization (i.e. rates could rise again later in the year).  I should note that the Saturn-Mercury aspect also tends to be bearish in terms of overall sentiment.

But the picture is complicated due to the simultaneous alignment of the Moon, Venus, Mars and Jupiter, and the Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu.  (We can throw in the Full Moon as well.)  While such multi-planet alignments tend to be bullish, the presence of Mars and Ketu in the mix here reduces the probability of gains tomorrow and for the rest of the week.  This increases the odds somewhat of a negative market reaction to the Fed decision.  While it appears bearish,  I would not say I have high confidence in that outcome as there are too many variables in play.  Nonetheless, the unusually high number of alignments raises the possibility for a large price move.

From a technical perspective, today's intraday reversal at 2850 on the SPX was a possible sign of some downside to come, depending on what the Fed does tomorrow.  

Even if we get some downside this week as I expect, the prospect for a rebound is quite good, since Jupiter will station retrograde on April 10th.  The time around Jupiter stations have a bullish bias which could offset any possible late March decline.  However, Saturn is also due to station retrograde on April 30th.  This tends to be bearish in the days around the station and may well undermine any preceding gains made under Jupiter's influence.

Taken together, this suggests there could significant moves in both directions in the weeks ahead.

For a more detailed analysis, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

To Brexit or not to Brexit, that is the question

(12 March 2019) The UK edged one step closer to the precipice today as Parliament voted down a second Brexit proposal by Prime Minister Theresa May.  It was a crushing defeat for Ms. May after apparently negotiating better terms with her EU counterpart in Brussels.  The UK Parliament is due to vote on a no-deal Brexit tomorrow (Wednesday) which is widely expected to be defeated.  It will then vote for an extension of Article 50 on Thursday to ask Brussels for a delay past the March 29th deadline to leave the EU.  If the Thursday vote passes, then anything is possible, including a fresh elections, a second referendum and maybe no Brexit at all. 

It's a chaotic situation with no easy solutions.  To be honest, I have no idea what's going happen.  When there is more than two possible outcomes to a situation, it is more difficult to make an astrological prediction. Typically, good transits point to a constructive resolution while bad transits coincide with tension, conflict and an ongoing state of frustration. But here we have at least four possible outcomes, each with its own pros and cons: no-deal Brexit, the postponement of Brexit (but only if the EU consents), fresh elections, or a second referendum.

From the UK's 1801 horoscope, we can clearly see the source of the current political stalemate in the UK.  Rahu (North Lunar Node) is conjunct the 10th house Moon, symbolizing the affairs of government as it pertains to the people.  Rahu is often a disruptive influence, and it does not combine well with the Moon.  This can produce uncertainty and emotional upset as well as an absence of order.  We can also see that Saturn and Pluto are opposing the Moon so that only makes the governing more difficult.  Saturn-Moon oppositions represent times of heaviness from worldly burdens that inflict lingering damage.  Pluto-Moon oppositions symbolize the coercive use of power without consent or respect.   These are all slow-moving aspects that will likely reflect more political difficulty in the months to come.  So that's point number one.

For today's failed vote, Mars is conjunct Mars (assertiveness, conflict) and Mercury is in a close 150 degree alignment with Saturn (unproductive work).   From across the ocean, it does seem as if the UK somehow has lost its ability to govern itself.  This Brexit drama has been going on for more than two years and seems to be far from resolution.

Wednesday's no-deal option seems unlikely to pass.  The transiting Moon-Jupiter alignment will aspect the natal Mercury (26 Scorpio) and this should allow for a measure of constructive compromise and positive outcomes.  Only a minority of the country (and Parliament) want a hard, no-deal Brexit so I wouldn't think this would be a likely outcome. 

However, there is an astrological argument for the "least worst" option of postponement of Brexit.  The delay vote is due on Thursday and will take place near the time when Venus is in a loose conjunction with natal Venus in sidereal Capricorn.  It's not really that close unfortunately, so I'm not highly confident that the delay option will carry the day.  But it does seem more likely than the hard Brexit option.  Late March and early April looks a bit better so we may see the EU agree to the delay of Article 50.  This would allow the UK to figure out its next move -- new negotiations, a new election or a new referendum. 

Whatever happens this week, I think the UK is still likely to have serious troubles over Brexit in the coming months.  I can see that the Saturn is due to station exactly on top of the natal Sun (19 Sagittarius) in August and September.  Since the Sun symbolizes government, this could well indicate an election and a likely change in government.  If there is an election during this period, Theresa May's Conservatives are likely to lose.  What a Labour government might mean for Brexit is anyone's guess.


Weekly Market Forecast

After last week's sharp sell-off, stocks have rebounded this week on expectation that the US-China trade deal may finally be near.   The Dow closed Tuesday at 25,554 while the S&P finished just under key resistance at 2791.  Indian stocks also moved higher as the Sensex closed Tuesday at 37,535.  This week's reversal was very much in keeping with expectations in last week's market forecast as I thought last week would likely see some significant declines given the retrograde Mercury alignment with Mars and Uranus. 

I also suggested that we would see a move higher this week on the alignment of the Sun with bullish Jupiter and Pluto.  That bullish energy has now manifested as Jupiter (28 Scorpio) aligned exactly with Pluto (28 Sagittarius) on Monday.  The Sun is within range now and will form an exact alignment on Wednesday. 

The rest of this week is harder to call.  I think the positive influence of the Jupiter-Pluto pairing is likely to see some residual effects, especially as Mercury retrograde backs into the alignment towards the end of the week.  This is a less reliable bullish factor but should nonetheless be seen as having a bullish bias.  We should sound a note of caution, however, due to the 120-degree Mars-Saturn alignment that is exact tomorrow (Wednesday). 

It is difficult to weigh the relative influence of these competing factors but I would say that the downside risk is elevated for Wednesday or perhaps into Thursday.  Futures are down a bit at the time of writing (11 pm EST), so we could see stocks under pressure on Wednesday.  But since the late week looks more positive, even a down day on Wednesday may not be enough to change the generally positive direction of the week as a whole. 

Next week may have a greater downside risk as Mercury and Venus align with Saturn early in the week, and then Mars aspects Jupiter in the second half of the week. 

For a more detailed analysis, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Mercury turns retrograde on Canada's Justin Trudeau

(4 March 2019)  It may be a good time to get your ducks in a row -- just in case.  Mercury, the planetary mischief-maker, is due to turn retrograde tomorrow, Tuesday, March 5.   Our solar system's innermost planet will station at 5 degrees of sidereal Pisces, and then begin its three-week backwards journey through the night sky.  It returns to normal forward motion on March 28 after stationing at 22 degrees of Aquarius. 

Mercury retrograde cycles have a bad reputation for bringing all manner of confusion, frustration and disruption to our normal routines.  Perhaps nobody knows this better than Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.   Actually, Trudeau has been on the defensive for the past month or so as his government is at the center of a corruption scandal that threatens to bring down his whole administration.   The opposition parties and many media pundits have been calling for a formal inquiry, and his resignation.

So far, two of his ministers have resigned, the Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould on February 12 and and today, Treasury Board President Jane Philpott also resigned citing a loss of confidence in the government from its poor handling of the scandal involving the Quebec-based construction company, SNC-Lavalin.

Not only does Mercury turns retrograde tomorrow, but it turns retrograde just one degree away from Trudeau's 8th house natal Mars.  Mars in the 8th house symbolizes conflict and troubles from that which is hidden and unknown.  The 8th house is often seen as the house of embarrassment and scandals, among other things.  Mercury retrograde periods can often bring snafus and headaches, but when Mercury stations on a malefic planet in the chart like Mars, there is a much greater likelihood that the problems will the significant.   Generally speaking, the period several days before and after the retrograde and direct stations are the most potent. 

We can see from Trudeau's horoscope that his troubles are not be confined to this single Mercury Rx factor.  The larger problem is that Saturn is aspecting his Moon (23 Pisces) by forward square aspect.  This may not be a full-strength Vedic aspect, but it is nonetheless close enough that it can inflict damage and do harm.  Saturn-Moon squares are usually times of personal difficulty, often marked by feelings of alienation, disappointment and loneliness.  Interestingly, Saturn (23 Sagittarius) is also forming a 135 degree angle with his Ascendant (10 Leo).  Saturn's slow velocity here suggests the twin alignments with the Moon and the Ascendant have been building for weeks.  Trudeau's political problems intensified on February 8 when the media discovered the SNC-Lavalin scandal and then on Feb 12 when the Justice minister resigned.   At that time, Saturn was at 21 Sagittarius, so just two degrees from an exact square with the Moon. 

The outlook for Justin Trudeau looks difficult for the next several weeks at least.  Tomorrow, his recently resigned and former closest aide, Gerald Butts, is due to testify before the Justice Committee.  With Mercury due to station Rx that day, it seems unlikely that the grim political optics can improve.  They may well get worse.

And with Saturn due to station retrograde on April 30th, it is hard to see Trudeau quickly putting this scandal behind him.  Saturn will station at 26 Sagittarius, just one degree from an exact 135 degree alignment.  (Parenthetically, I would note that US Democrat wunderkind Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may also suffer from this Saturn Rx station in April and May as it will exactly square her Sun at 26 Virgo.)   In fact, Saturn will be within range of his Ascendant and the Moon for most of the rest of 2019.  With an election upcoming on October 21, Trudeau will have an uphill battle for re-election.  And yet assuming he doesn't suddenly resign, I think his chances are good for re-election.  

Transiting Jupiter will be conjunct its natal position at 27 Scorpio at the time of the election so that is a positive factor.  Saturn will be three degrees away from its square with the Moon so that could relieve some of the negative pressure on him.  It's still close though and since Saturn will station one month before, it suggests a tense and onerous time for Trudeau. 

Uranus (10 Aries) will form a very constructive Grand Trine alignment with his Ascendant and Sun which should enhance his life outcomes.  Transiting Rahu will be deep in the 11th house of gains by that time so that is another plus.  Although Rahu has a chequered reputation, it does well in the 11th house and is often prominent during favourable events. 

And he will still be running the Moon-Mercury dasha period.  The Moon receives the aspect from Jupiter natally and by transit this year so that will offset some of the worst of Saturn's effects.  And Mercury rules his 11th house (Gemini) of gains and income and it is conjunct Jupiter in his 4th house.  Mercury should be a winning planet for him, even if it is not strong enough to prevent obstacles from emerging.  

I should say that Trudeau is likely to have a very stressful period in June when Mars and Saturn will both align with his Moon.  I wouldn't think this is enough to force him from office, but let's see what happens in the run-up to that alignment.  It does look like his life becomes significantly more difficult at that time, whatever the source.  So at this point, I would think Trudeau has a good chance to win re-election, even if his majority is reduced or he has to lead a minority government. 


Weekly Market Forecast

The approach of the Mercury retrograde period appeared to negatively impact investor sentiment today also as US stocks fell.   Last week, markets were fairly flat but the mood was still somewhat buoyant in growing anticipation of a US-China deal that could return global trade to the pre-Trumpian status quo ante.  It is unclear just when a deal will happen or what it will look like, however, as markets expressed some caution that any trade deal may not save the slowing economy.    Most of the economic data is weakening in the US, China and Europe and there is a rising risk of a recession this year or next year. 

Mercury turns retrograde on Tuesday but I am agnostic on whether that will be a decisive day.   More important is that Mercury will form a complex alignment with several planets through this week which could see further declines in the stock market.  Mercury (5 Pisces) will align closely with Uranus (5 Aries) and Chiron (5 Pisces) and also will form a 45 degree alignment with Mars at 20 Aries later in the week.  Wednesday and Thursday look arguably more bearish in this respect, as the the Sun and Neptune come under the aspect of Saturn and Moon conjoins Mercury on Thursday.

So as strong as this post-Christmas rebound has been, I think we will see a pause and pullback this week.   I'm less convinced this the start of a big decline that will revisit the December lows, however.   For example, next week looks more positive as Jupiter aligns with Pluto and the Sun.  The revisiting of the December lows will likely take much longer -- probably some weeks (or even months) after the Jupiter retrograde station on April 10.

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