Dysfunction in DC: the Trump-McConnell feud

(24 August 2017) With Congress set to return after the summer recess, US president Donald Trump is looking increasingly weakened and isolated.  As he tries to shake off the Charlottesville controversy, Trump is now insisting that he will shutdown the US government if Congress does not approve funding for his border wall with Mexico.  The shutdown threat comes as Congress enters into its annual negotiations to raise the debt ceiling which is required under US law.  If Congress cannot strike a deal by the September 29th deadline, the government will default on its debt.

Negotiations will be made more complicated because of an ongoing feud between Trump and Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell.   There is no love lost between these two men and recent reports are they haven't spoken for weeks.  McConnell has even gone so far as to speak publicly about whether Trump's presidency can survive.  Trump's problem is that he needs McConnell onside to have any chance of passing his administration's agenda.  And yet it seems less the case that McConnell needs Trump, however, as the GOP risks losing seats in the 2018 midterms due to Trump's low popularity. 

While we don't know McConnell's time of birth, his horoscope cast for noon shows how he can act as a thorn in the side of Trump.  McConnell was born with a close conjunction of Mars and Saturn in late sidereal Aries.  This may give him tenacity and a strong, resolute character to persevere against hardship or opposition.  As it happens, this conjunction sits very close to Trump's 10th house cusp or Midheaven ("MC") at 1 degree of Taurus.  The 10th house is at the top of the chart and represents career, status, and achievements. 

Mars and Saturn are both considered to be naturally malefic planets.   When these planets align with key points in another person's chart, it often speaks to tensions and difficulty in the relationship.  McConnell's Saturn can therefore be said to be blocking or restricting Trump's ability to achieve his goals.  In other words, Trump's achievements (10th house) have to come to terms with McConnell's restrictions (Saturn).   The Mars influence provides additional energy in the interpersonal dynamic, although the nearby presence of Saturn suggests there is often a negative tone. 

McConnell's Mars also casts its most malefic 8th house (210 degree) aspect to Trump's Moon-Ketu conjunction within just two degrees.  This kind of Moon-Mars connection between two charts can introduce a level of animosity and conflict that is always there, at least in the background.   A Moon-Mars conjunction between charts can indicate more constructive applications of energy but the 8th house aspect is less positive. 

We can see that the feud is at a very intense level now as Mars approaches its conjunction with Rahu (North Node) this weekend.  Mars and Rahu come under the exact square aspect of McConnell's Mars and indicates intense frustration and conflict.  Trump's chart is no less afflicted as we have seen as Mars prepares to enter Leo on Aug 27 and then conjoin his natal Mars on Sep 1.   We should expect more rancor between them with the very real possibility of the rift growing wider in the coming days.  And with the US horoscope also looking very afflicted by the Mars-Rahu conjunction, it seems likely that the dysfunction and division in Washington could escalate to a new level. 


The Debt Ceiling

It also looks very likely that the upcoming debt ceiling talks will go down to the wire and could even go past the deadline.  A look at McConnell's chart shows why.  In late September, Mars conjoins his natal Rahu at 20 Leo while both Saturn and Rahu remain in alignment with his natal Mars-Saturn.   The focus of this transit is around Sep 25th and offers some evidence for the probability of major tensions in the debt ceiling bill.  Interestingly, House Leader Paul Ryan's chart is similarly afflicted by Mars since it conjoins his Ketu (18 Leo) and squares his relocated Ascendant (19 Scorpio).   This transit could represent a setback or failure in negotiations.

It is even possible the negotiations could become deadlocked and Congress may miss the Sep 29th deadline.   The Mars-Saturn square on October 8 lines up closely with Trump's Moon and with McConnell's Mars-Saturn conjunction.   While this alignment may not be related to the debt ceiling, it does seem to be related to the ongoing battle between Trump and McConnell. 

These difficult transits in the charts of the principal players in DC suggest that the debt ceiling talks will not go smoothly.   If that is the case, financial markets may become nervous and stocks could fall.  It is something to watch as we head into September

Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have enjoyed a modest rebound so far this week on rumours that progress has been made on tax reform in Congress.   The Dow finished Wednesday at 21,812.  Indian stocks have also bounced this week after last week's decline.  The BSE-Sensex opens Thursday's session at 31,568.  In last week's market forecast, I thought that we might see some upside in the first half of the week around the eclipse and that has taken place. 

The rest of this week has a somewhat increased risk of downside.   Thursday looks a little more negative than Friday as the Moon conjoins bullish Jupiter at the end of the week.   Early next week looks more problematic as Mars enters Leo and conjoins the North Lunar Node (Rahu).

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Make America White Again: Trump defends white supremacists

(16 August 2017) The shameless presidency of Donald Trump appeared to hit a new low this week in the wake of ugly racist violence in Charlottesville, Virginia.  A rally of alt-right white supremacists degenerated into a riot following clashes with anti-racist protesters which saw three people killed and many more injured.  Trump was widely criticized for his initial Saturday statement in which he did not clearly blame the neo-Nazis as the instigators of the violence.  Bowing to pressure, he was forced to issue another more pointed condemnation on Monday although to many it sounded scripted and hollow.  But then yesterday's rambling and angry press conference saw Trump incredibly revert back to his original view which held that "both sides" were equally culpable.

Trump has come under widespread criticism from many quarters including many from within his own party, and now seven CEOs have chosen to quit the President's Manufacturing Council rather than risk being associated with the White House.  As the Trump presidency becomes more toxic one may well ask what will happen next.  Will Trump become so besieged and isolated that he has to resign or can he get a much-needed political "win" to arrest the current downward spiral of his chaotic, failing administration?

I think things are going to get worse for Trump before they get better.  As I have noted previously, Trump's horoscope is massively afflicted for the next few weeks.  Even from very early in his term, we could look ahead and see that the Saturn station on August 25th at 27 Scorpio was going to be trouble for him.  This pattern was one big reason why I thought Trump's first year in office would be so bad.  Saturn will station atop his Moon and Ketu conjunction in his 4th house for several weeks on either side of the station date. 

Trump has been put on the defensive over Charlottesville because the transiting Sun is in near exact alignment with his natal Ketu.  The Sun represents the ego and self while Ketu (the South Lunar Node) is the symbolic opposite of those qualities as it often coincides with unexpected situations that oppose our wishes.  Ketu usually denies the ego when it is in transit and the weakening of Trump's Sun this week is a direct consequence of this Ketu contact. 

Normally, this faster-moving Sun-to-Ketu transit -- lasting just a day or two -- wouldn't be too difficult.   But its effects are more pointed since Trump's chart is in terrible shape from the slower-moving transits of Saturn and the Nodes, Rahu and Ketu.  And we haven't even mentioned the eclipse yet that hits Trump's Mars-Ascendant conjunction next Monday!  There's a lot of energy running through his chart in the next few weeks.  Certainly, this period will prove even more eventful and intense than anything we've seen so far this summer.

It is interesting to see how this current setback for Trump can be seen in both the Inauguration and PEOTUS charts.  At the time of Saturday's rally and subsequent riot, Mars was at 20 degrees of Cancer -- exactly squaring the Ascendant and conjunct the equal 4th house cusp in the Inauguration chart (20 Jan 2017 12.00 pm).  Mars is the planet of violence and war and it aligns exactly with the Ascendant of the chart, which represents the antagonism and conflict.

The PEOTUS chart also sees Mars figuring prominently as Mars (20 Cancer) casts its square aspect to the Sun (23 Libra).  As the symbol of leaders, the Sun represents the president and it is afflicted by disputatious Mars.  Additionally, we can see that Trump's problems with communication and messaging are highlighted by retrograde Mercury (17 Leo) in close conjunction with Rahu (16 Leo).  Rahu tends to distort or disrupt whatever planet it is associated with so its connection with Mercury, the planet of speech and communication, is quite appropriate.  Due to Mercury's low retrograde velocity, it will remain in conjunction with Rahu for most of this week.  This will be bad news for Trump who may wish to rise above the fray and appear presidential.  The Mercury-Rahu influence suggest that communications will remain subject to misunderstanding and distortion. 

The other thing to remember about the PEOTUS chart is that it is running Rahu-Saturn dasha period.  Dasha lord Rahu is placed in the 12th house indicating a presidency that is isolated and marked by deception and delusion.   Intriguingly, Rahu is also the planet that symbolizes foreigners so it is no surprise perhaps that the Russia investigation hangs over the Trump White House.    The shadow from this investigation about foreign influence over the Trump administration will likely linger for the rest of his term.  Rahu in the 12th isn't always so bad, but in this Rahu is doubly afflicted by the full strength aspects of Mars (from the 5th) and Saturn (from the 3rd).  Therefore, the worst side of Rahu's qualities are therefore more likely to be reflected in this presidency.  


Trump's upcoming planets

Next week also looks difficult and could well be worse. Transiting Mars (27 Cancer) aligns with his Ketu (27 Scorpio) for most of the week and could cause him to become even more angry and frustrated.  It also increases the likelihood of Trump having to deal with another violent situation.  Mars is also very strong in the Inauguration chart late next week as it will exactly align with the Mars-Saturn square in that chart.  It could reflect a very tense and dangerous situation.  Similarly, Mars squares Mercury in the PEOTUS chart late next week. 

Mars is also active in the Inauguration chart as it casts its full strength and perhaps most malefic aspect to natal Mars.  Again, the theme is violence and conflict.  At the same time, the Sun will conjoin retrograde Mercury on Aug 25-26 and will also conjoin the natal Rahu (9 Leo) in this chart.  I think this suggests deception, intrigue and possible scandal.  New Russia revelations are possible under this configuration.  Rahu's prominence could also mean that troubles involving foreigners (e.g. North Korea) are also more likely to occur at that time. 

The picture gets worse the following week at Mars and Mercury align on the solar eclipse point at 4 Leo.  As it happens, this is just one degree from Trump's Mars and again creates a configuration where conflict and violence is more likely.  In the PEOTUS chart the Mercury-Mars conjunction sits on the 12th house cusp symbolizing loss, secrets, and incoherence. The time window of the closest alignment is September 2-5 although the first week as a whole looks volatile.   I don't know what will happen at this time but it looks like it could represent a kind of "peaking of energy" for the US and Trump. 

As I have written previously, I don't think a resignation is the most likely outcome at this time.  The key charts are certainly afflicted but not really enough to persuade me that Trump will go.  The Pence chart (birth time unknown) isn't strong enough to reflect a gain for him that would occur if Trump resigned.  Also key Democrat charts such as Obama or the Clintons should be strong if Trump was on the way out.  Obama's chart definitely has some bright spots but if Trump was really resigning in September, then I would think he would be very happy indeed and it would show up more clearly.  After all, his soft approach to the Russian hacking of the 2016 election campaign was arguably one reason why Trump ended up winning.

Obama is running his Saturn-Mercury dasha period so transits to those planets might be more telling of key events in his life.  Tr. Venus does make a nice conjunction to his Mercury on Aug 26-27 so that could indicate some good news.  Whether it is related to the Trump dumpster fire is hard to say.   Saturn is stationing near his 11th house cusp in late August and will remain there for a couple weeks afterwards.  Since Saturn is ruler of the 1st house, there is a greater likelihood of significant gains and wishes that are fulfilled.  However, the Mercury Rx-Mars conjunction in early September at 4 Leo hits his Rahu almost exactly..  That doesn't seem very good and if anything looks like a time of confusion and (tense) sudden change. Whether it turns out to be good vibes, it is unlikely to last very long.  Ketu hits Obama's Ascendant in Oct-Nov just as Saturn squares up his Mars. 

Perhaps the strength in Obama's chart reflects some serious political or legal damage to Trump here in late summer which may not be enough to force him to resign.  I would be more comfortable predicting that sort of less dramatic scenario than a full-on resignation. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks remain fairly buoyant this week as US retail data came in above expectations.  After suffering a decline last Thursday, stocks have generally rebounded as the Dow is now back above 22,000.  Indian shares have fared worse, however, as the Sensex took a substantial hit last week.  This week has only seen a modest bounce as it is still below 31,500.  In last week's market forecast, I was expecting a mixed picture although I thought we might have seen more downside early this week.

Further gains are possible today (Wednesday) and even tomorrow (Thursday) as Venus aligns with Jupiter and Pluto. but Friday looks less positive as the Sun conjoins Rahu (North Lunar Node) while Venus forms a minor alignment with Saturn.  Of course, next week begins with the total eclipse of the Sun across the US.  Eclipse days are not always bad for stocks so some early week upside is possible.   However, I would think caution will be on the rise during the course of the week as Mars approaches its conjunction with Rahu. 

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

August eclipses and the markets: echoes of the 1998 Russia crisis?

(9 August 2017)  They say history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.  At its core, astrology is the study of repeating planetary cycles.  Since the motion of each planet adheres to a predictable pattern, so too may symbolic correspondences of planets manifest in events of a similar nature according to a predetermined time frame.  Predictions are therefore rooted in the presumption that the clockwork-like repeatability of each planetary cycle can form the basis of the understanding of future trends.

Eclipses also follow their own cycle.  Every 18 or 19 years, the lunar and solar eclipse pair returns to the same place in the sky.  Monday's lunar eclipse occurred at 21 degrees of sidereal Capricorn and the much-anticipated total solar eclipse will take place across the continental US at 4 degrees of Leo.  As it happens, this is exactly where the eclipses occurred 19 years ago. almost to the day, in August 1998.  A lunar eclipse happened on August 8th at 21 Capricorn and a solar eclipse followed on the 22nd at 4 Leo -- just one day after this year's eclipse pair. 

One very important event took place in August 1998 during this eclipse period.  Russia suffered a major financial crisis in which its currency lost 75% of its value within just a few weeks.  The ruble crisis marked the beginning of the end of Boris Yeltsin's government and set the stage for the rise of his successor, Vladimir Putin in 1999.  While the Russian ruble crisis was devastating for the Russian economy, it also sent shock waves around the world.  US stocks lost 12% of their value over just one week at the end of August. 

Could this happen again this year?  I think it could, although we should note that eclipses are only one part of a larger pattern of planetary configurations.  If these placements are connected in some significant way according to the rules of astrology, then noteworthy events are more likely to occur.  For a major event to take place, we usually need to see: 1) a close alignment of slow moving planets which are activating the natal chart in an obvious way for good or ill; 2) an eclipse should take place either near a sensitive point or key planet or in aspect to it in the natal chart; and 3) the eclipse point (either lunar or solar) should then be transited by another planet at some point after the eclipse has taken place.  The presence of other simultaneous aspects may intensify the post-eclipse effects, say if the chart is strongly marked by malefic or benefic alignments. 


The 1998 Russian Financial Crisis

In the 1998 Russian financial crisis, the Russia chart was under strong affliction by transiting Saturn (9 Aries) which was closely aspecting both Venus and natal Saturn.   Even more telling was that Saturn stationed retrograde on August 15th, just two days before the crisis began in earnest.  This greatly amplified the negative effects of Saturn as its restrictive energy was transferred to the Venus-Saturn square in the natal chart.  We can also see the transits were made more potent in August 1998 since Rahu was in close trine (5th house) aspect with Saturn and thus transiting Ketu (7 Aquarius) was in alignment with Venus (9 Libra).   Venus carried an added importance since it was dasha lord as the chart was running its Venus-Mercury period.  Both planets are clearly afflicted natally: Venus by Saturn's square and retrograde Mercury is combust the Sun.  Venus rules the 11th house (Taurus) of income and is a natural planetary significator of the economy.

The lunar eclipse on August 8th fell one degree from the 7th house cusp (20 Capricorn) and may be interpreted as destabilizing the entire chart since it is opposite the most sensitive point, the Ascendant. The crisis reached its maximum on August 26th when the Russian government suspended all trading in the ruble.  The ruble was no longer convertible to other currencies, thus preventing what would have been an even worse situation.  It was on August 26th that the crisis hit other financial markets as US stocks began their sharp decline.  And the transits bear out this difficulty as Mars (9 Cancer) was exactly square Venus and opposite natal Saturn.  It is true that the eclipse points were not subject to clearly negative transits during this time.  However, it is worth noting that retrograde Mercury has just stationed direct on the Ascendant and opposite the lunar eclipse point at 22 Cancer two days before trading in the ruble was suspended.  

To be clear, I am not predicting a similar crisis for Russia at this time.  That's because while the eclipses fall in the same places, the level of affliction to the Russia national chart is not as severe.  As in 1998, Saturn is stationing again, although this time is going direct at 27 Scorpio.  But the placement of Saturn does aspect any other planet very closely.  It does form a trine aspect with the Midheaven (MC) but that could indicate problems with government and leadership (Putin) rather than the economy.  I think Russia is more likely to become prominent in the news around the time that Mars conjoins Rahu at 0 Leo and approaches the solar eclipse point at 4 Leo.  Coincidentally, this occurs in the last week of August right around the same time of the month that the 1998 crisis reached its peak.  

Interestingly, the point at which Mars conjoins Rahu at 0 Leo also falls just one degree from the Ascendant (1 Leo) of the Putin swearing-in horoscope from May 7, 2012.  Mars-Rahu conjunctions often symbolize sudden and unpredictable actions, up to and including military action.  Russian politics could therefore move into the forefront during this period.  I wonder if the Trump-Russia investigation will become more uncomfortable for Putin.  It's possible since Trump's chart is also under heavy pressure during that time.  But that is just one possible scenario.  As I have noted previously, the activation of Mars in the USA chart still looks more like military action.  The way things are going that may well mean something involving North Korea.  I hope to post something more specific on North Korea in the coming days.

The eclipse risk to global stock markets

But the other takeaway here is that stock markets are vulnerable to declines given these similarities to 1998.  Again, the eclipses themselves are only part of the story.  The meat of it is the approaching Saturn-Rahu alignment which occurs around the time of a Saturn direct station. This is a difficult alignment that raises the risk of declines over the next month or two.  And this is the same alignment that occurred during August 1998 -- Saturn was aligned with Rahu (North Lunar Node) at a time when Saturn had stationed. 

We can see how these different factors played out in the horoscope of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (5.00 p.m., May 26, 1896). The eclipses in 1998 looked like they hit key points.  The initial lunar eclipse at 21 Capricorn was exactly square Saturn (21 Libra) and thus may have highlighted this bearish planet.  The solar eclipse two weeks later at 4 Leo was just one degree from Ketu (South Node).  Like Saturn, Ketu is considered a natural malefic which has a stronger correlation with declines.   The biggest decline occurred on August 31st when the Dow lost 6% in one day.

We can see the pattern of affliction fairly clearly: the usually troublesome inverse nodal conjunction as transiting Rahu conjoined Ketu.  The Saturn station at 9 Aries made for a fairly wide trine with natal Ketu (5 Leo) but still close enough to suggest problems.  Transiting Mars (13 Cancer) was conjunct Jupiter and aspected the Ascendant.  It also formed a larger alignment with the Moon-Jupiter-Mars grand trine pattern in the natal chart.  Mars is a malefic planet by nature and its opposition with Uranus (15 Capricorn) at the bottom of the chart could have added another layer of difficulty given the alignment with the Ascendant at 17 Libra.  This picture of affliction was also grounded by the ongoing conjunction of Pluto (11 Scorpio) to the Moon (13 Scorpio).

This time around the 21 Capricorn/4 Leo pairing of eclipse points will again activate malefics, Saturn and Ketu, as in 1998.  Transiting Saturn does not align with the natal nodes but rather only the transiting nodes.  This looks less problematic.  Saturn does align closely with the Midheaven but that seems like a weaker, second order affliction.  The nodes are again in an inverse conjunction, although Rahu is a full five degrees past exact.  But the worse part of it may be the closer aspect from Ketu to natal Mercury -- just two degrees.  Mercury is the ruler of the 12th house of loss in this chart so the Ketu aspect is more likely to be coincide with market weakness. 

The decline in 1998 occurred in the last week of August and that could well happen again.   That said, the strong eclipse-based pattern extends into the first week of September.  The Mars-Rahu conjunction looks quite negative and is more likely to coincide with some declines on Aug 28-31.  However, Mercury ends its retrograde cycle while in conjunction with Mars at 4 Leo around September 3-5 near Labor Day.  And that is exactly atop the solar eclipse point!  And that is likely to bring more bad news for the Dow since that is close to the natal Ketu at 5 Leo.  September as a whole looks like it could produce a more complex market as the current period of calm is unlikely to continue into the early fall.



Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks remain near record highs this week despite growing nervousness over the North Korean situation.  Asian and European markets sold-off today as both sides ratcheted up the war-mongering rhetoric.  US stocks are slightly negative at midday Wednesday with the Dow still trading above 22,000.  Indian stocks have trended lower so far this week as the Sensex closed Wednesday at 31,797.   This mixed outcome is not surprising as I thought last week would likely be bullish but this week looked more difficult.  That has proven to be the case in most markets, although not quite yet in the US. 

The rest of this week is similarly a mixed picture.  Some midweek upside seems possible given the Sun's alignment with Jupiter and Pluto today and tomorrow.  However, Friday and particularly early next week look more difficult as Mars conjoins the lunar eclipse point at 21 Capricorn and also aligns with Venus. 

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

The Eclipsing of Trump? What to expect from the August 21st solar eclipse

(1 August 2017) Off the top, I want to apologize to my non-American readers who may be getting tired of these constant posts about Donald Trump and the current state of US politics.  And readers hoping for more explicitly financial content may be feeling similarly indifferent to my interpretation of the never-ending melodrama that is taking place in Washington, DC.  And yet, I find there is no more important story going on in the world right now as it has major ramifications far beyond the borders of the US. 

The United States seems to be descending into a state of political chaos as the Trump administration continues to struggle.  The once-great superpower and beacon of democracy now seems intent on its re-invention as dysfunctional authoritarian state as the Trump presidency is in danger of coming off the rails.  Trumpists knew that "Making America Great Again" wasn't going to be easy given the entrenched interests on the other side but his sagging approval ratings even among conservatives now suggest his hold on the office may be in jeopardy.

Where does it all end?  Each day brings news of a fresh White House dismissal (turn the Mooch loose!) or revelation of transgressions or misdeeds with respect to the ongoing Russia investigation.  Trump's legislative ineptitude has only made him more politically vulnerable as Congress becomes more skeptical of his leadership.   John McCain's "no" vote on health care may only have been the thin edge of the GOP wedge to come.  Unless something changes very soon, Trump could lose broader GOP support in the Senate and that could begin a chain reaction that gets impeachment proceedings underway.  "President Pence" no longer seems so far-fetched.  The Trump White House hopes that yesterday's appointment of the new Chief of Staff, General John Kelly, can turn things around.

Even worse, Trump's precarious position opens up the possibility of a gratuitous use of military power, if for no other reason than to distract and change the conversation.  Bill Clinton famously succumbed to this "Wag the Dog" distraction technique during the Monica Lewinsky impeachment hearings.   At least he had the good sense to pick the strategically less important target of Sudan where the risk of retaliation was minimal.  But what if Trump decides he needs to "fix" a more volatile situation like North Korea, which has nuclear weapons?  No wonder so many people are in a state of worried disbelief about the direction of the US government. 

Many astrologers are quite pessimistic about Trump's situation, myself included.  In astrological terms, the central problem is highlighted by the upcoming total solar eclipse on August 21st.   We are staring down the barrel of a portentous solar eclipse at 4 degrees of Leo that occurs very close to Trump's Ascendant (6 Leo by sidereal reckoning, although the eclipse has similar importance for both Western tropical and Vedic sidereal astrologers).   The eclipse also has the unusual quality of being wholly visible only in the continental US.  The last time this happened was June 1918.  This may therefore be seen to be a uniquely American eclipse not only in terms of viewing, but also potentially in its real-life consequences.

Eclipses are traditionally seen as harbingers of doom as astrologers seek to correlate negative events with all solar and lunar eclipses.  But a little confirmation bias can go a long way when the weight of centuries of tradition is invoked.   Instead, we should acknowledge that the evidence of event correlation is actually inconclusive as most eclipses do not clearly correlate with any major events.  Of course, we can always point to this or that eclipse as seemingly foretelling of some unfortunate event (e.g. the Turkish earthquake in 1999 that occurred six days after a total solar eclipse over Turkey), but it is not a reliable correlation.  Many eclipses come and go without any clear ties to a significant incident.   But perhaps if we attach some other co-factors and conditions, there may be a better way of understanding how eclipses could work.

One key co-factor is that the eclipse needs to hit some major points in the relevant national horoscope or its equivalents.  What makes this eclipse potentially more important, therefore, is how it interplays with the key horoscopes of President Trump, the USA itself, and the November 9th PEOTUS chart.  As I have noted previously, Trump's chart is hugely afflicted in August and September.  Saturn stations direct at 27 Scorpio on August 25th in a close conjunction with his Moon-Ketu conjunction.  By itself, that is a very nasty alignment which may correspond with a sense of disappointment, isolation and loss.  Plus, transiting Ketu (South Lunar Node) will form an exact trine aspect to his Sun (29 Taurus) in late August.  Ketu-to-Sun aspects often mark periods where the ego is put on the defensive or interrupted by changing or sudden circumstances.  Trump's Sun is more pivotal in this respect because it rules Leo, which is his 1st house/chart ruler.  In Vedic terms, since the Sun is Trump's lagnesh, any aspects, for good or ill, take on a heightened importance. The Ketu influence on his Sun combined with the Saturn influence on his Moon seems like an inescapable one-two punch.  Both lights of the chart are therefore aligned with malefics around the same time. 

At the time of the eclipse, Mars (26 Scorpio) is close at hand also as it is situated just behind Rahu (29 Cancer) and aligns tightly with Trump's Ketu.  Mars injects a lot more energy into the overall eclipse alignment and makes it more negative in its possible effects.  The fact that Mars and Rahu are so close to Trump's Mars-Ascendant duo is another reason why Trump is likely to experience a sharp increase in stress at this time.  Clearly, this is not a run-of-the-mill eclipse.  The close involvement of Mars and Saturn makes it more dangerous and therefore I would argue more likely to correlate with a difficult event.  The fact that the chart of the US President is also closely activated by the eclipse would seem to give more support to this view.

The US horoscope hints that the eclipse effects may have a national resonance.  One reason is that the solar eclipse point at 4 Leo will form a close opposition aspect to the Moon of the USA at 7 Aquarius.  The Moon represents the people as a whole, as well as the national psyche and mood.  The eclipse point comes fairly close to the the Moon opposition so there is a stronger case to be made for major repercussions from this eclipse.  Of course, the larger problem for this chart is the multiple afflictions to Mars (0 Gemini).  The Saturn station opposite Mars hints at intense conflictive energy with a dangerous or violent manifestation.  And the Lunar Nodes are in the picture once again as Ketu (0 Aquarius) forms its trine/5th house aspect to Mars almost exactly.  The presence of these two aspects involving malefic planets to Mars, the planet of war, is just not good no matter how you slice it. 

It is possible to make a case that the ever-belligerent Donald Trump is symbolized by Mars and that these afflictions to the USA's Mars indicate intense pressure on Trump, perhaps even resignation.  And yet I would think that a resignation or removal scenario would require more chart afflictions to the Sun and the 10th house which are the typical significators of the head of government.  So I would say resignation is conceivable but I don't think it provides the best fit for the chart patterns. 

The horoscope for President-Elect of the United States (PEOTUS) also has some telling hits at the time of the eclipse.  The eclipse point at 4 Leo sits almost exactly on the equal 12th house cusp of this chart.  The 12th house represents losses and sorrows so that would suggest a negative situation for either the country or Trump, or perhaps for both.  But the added affliction here is that the eclipse point is aspected by 8th house aspect from natal Mars at 6 Capricorn.  This is a more volatile influence that speaks to sudden events having a martial character.  And with Uranus sitting at 4 Aries near the 8th house cusp, the chart appears to have too much dangerous energy for a constructive or positive outcome.

In addition, Mars is square the Sun in late August so that may translate into conflict involving leaders.  Well, that is not really news since Trump is constantly involved in conflict of one type or another.  However, transiting Mercury (14 Leo) is conjunct the natal Rahu (15 Leo) at the time of the eclipse on the 21st.  Usually, this only refers to situations of confusion or miscommunication in the worst case.  But here, Mercury is lagnesh since it rules Virgo, the sign in the first house.  With the chart ruler Mercury subjected to Rahuvian disruption there is an added sense of uncertainty.  It is even possible that we could see some kind of eclipse hysteria emerge at that time as the self-fulfilling prophecy of all this eclipse talk in the media takes center stage. 


Eclipse events: the time lag

But when discussing eclipses, it is important to remember that any linked events are unlikely to occur on the day of the eclipse.  There can be a time lag.   One simple timing technique focuses on the transits of malefic planets to the eclipse point.  The aforementioned 1999 Turkish earthquake occurred when transiting Mars aligned with the eclipse point by square within a degree or two.  The 1906 San Francisco earthquake that killed 3000 people occurred more than two months after an eclipse period.  But it is worth noting that the earthquake happened  just as transiting Ketu conjoined the lunar eclipse point at 27 Capricorn and Mars had just passed a backwards square aspect to that same point by three degrees.  It isn't quite clockwork but it definitely qualifies as interesting. 

That previous total solar eclipse in the US in 1918 may have foretold the Spanish flu epidemic that killed over 500,000 people in the US.  While the flu outbreak occurred in the spring, it first appeared to be a typical flu outbreak with low levels of mortality.  However, a much more deadly second wave hit in late summer and early fall.  This deadly second flu wave coincided with the transit of Ketu over the June eclipse point at 24 degrees of Taurus. 

Fortunately, the August solar eclipse occurs with Rahu having already passed the Sun-Moon conjunction.  That means that Rahu (the North Lunar Node) cannot act as a trigger for any untoward events.  Rahu and Ketu are arguably more problematic as planetary influences since they move quite slowly.  However, Mars will be moving across the solar eclipse point in early September about two weeks after the eclipse.  We should therefore pay closer attention to that time window for any possible eclipse effects.  September 2-4 sees an exact conjunction of Mars to the eclipse point and with a conjunction of stationing Mercury thrown in for good measure.  Even then, I would allow for a few days margin of error to see if anything is going to happen. 

But as I noted above, eclipses do not always have to have a clear connection with events.  In a sense, the various Trump-related charts I've outlined above don't even need an eclipse to foretell increasing problems in the coming weeks.  The other afflictions would be sufficient reason to predict deepening stress and troubles for the White House.  The eclipse may only act as an additional trigger or catalyst for whatever may be coming.  Overall, I think some kind of exercise of military power fits better with the alignments here, although nailing down the precise type of event is very speculative.  Hopefully, I will be able to better narrow down the possibilities next week.


Weekly Market Forecast

Despite the turmoil in Washington, US stocks continue to touch all-time highs as corporate earnings remain strong.  The Dow is on the verge of passing 22,000 as the Trump rally is about to enter its ninth month.   India's Sensex has also pushed to new highs at 32,500 on a positive monsoon outlook and more signs of recovery from the EU.  

The current rally appears to correlate with this week's Jupiter-Pluto alignment. While I thought we might have seen a bit more downside in late July on the Sun-Mars conjunction, the presence of this bullish Jupiter influence in early August hinted at more upside.  We could see more record highs this week and perhaps even into next week or the week after.  However, Monday's lunar eclipse (August 7th) looks quite volatile given the proximity of Mars.  I would think that stocks are more likely to decline, at least in the first half of next week. 

And just to reiterate, the rest of August and September look much more problematic for financial markets.  The combined effects of the eclipses, the Saturn station and the Ketu-Saturn alignment look like formidable celestial obstacles for the stock market.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

GOP health bill fails as Mars undermines Trump

(19 July 2017) The besieged Trump administration suffered another setback this week as the Senate health care bill failed to come to a vote.  Despite taking extra time during the early July break, Mitch McConnell's Republicans could not find the 50 votes to get it passed.  The failure highlights the divisions in the GOP and the inability of President Donald Trump to bring together the moderate and far right wings in the party. 

This latest failure may also be seen as a consequence of the difficult transit of Mars through sidereal Cancer in Trump's 12th house of loss.  As noted last week, Mars entered Trump's 12th whole sign house (as per standard Vedic astrology parameters) on July 11th just as the scandal involving a meeting between his son and the Russians exploded in the media.  The health care morass indicates that Mars is continuing to undermine Trump's hopes and ambitions.   Mars will remain in the sign of Cancer until August 26th and could therefore exert an extended negative influence on Trump.  With Saturn stationing on his volatile Moon-Ketu conjunction (and Rahu aspecting it also) also through that time, the summer looks pretty stressful for him. 

After years of talking up its plan to "repeal and replace" Obamacare, the GOP looks lost at the moment as it will try to regroup and find a new path on health care.  As I noted back in March, I think the GOP will have a better opportunity to realize its campaign promise next year as the Obamacare horoscope looks more difficult in 2018.  This would suggest that Obamacare is more likely to not only be repealed by 2018 but also replaced with a new plan. 

The difficulty for the Obamacare horoscope (March 23, 2010) is that Saturn is due to transit the first half of Sagittarius (i.e. the 7th house) throughout 2018.  This transit will therefore oppose both the Moon and the Ascendant.  This double dose of Saturn is rarely a positive influence in any chart.  Additional tense transits such as the square of Uranus and Mars and the conjunction of Rahu to Mars transit underline the severity of the stresses upon Obamacare.  I would think there is a high likelihood that it will be mostly or completely replaced by the midterm elections in November 2018. 

I had wondered if the GOP might be able to get something done here, however.  In a June post, I noted that there were some noteworthy planetary aspects in the charts of the principals as well as some significant troubles in the Obamacare chart.  Mostly,  I was seeing a lot of tension from the upcoming Saturn-Rahu alignment in August as well as the more immediate Sun-Mars conjunction this week (July 21-22).  The Sun-Mars conjunction hits the Obamacare Mars at 7 Cancer almost exactly.  This may not always be a negative development although it usually indicates stressful situations at the very least.  Could Trump and the GOP pull a rabbit out of the hat at the end of this week and somehow claim at least a symbolic victory?  It's possible but I wouldn't bet on it either.  The planetary picture is not straight forward.

Coincidentally, the Sun-Mars conjunction occurs right on the 12th house cusp of Donald Trump.  This is usually more difficult given the 12th house's association with losses and punishments.  It is very hard to think of this as an astrological signature of a "win" such as he would claim for even a partial repeal of Obamacare.  And yet the near-simultaneity of the transit to key points in both charts suggests a possible linkage.  Maybe Trump does something unexpected that exacerbates the health care stalemate. 

The importance of this week's Sun-Mars conjunction also shows up on the PEOTUS chart as an opposition to the natal Mars at 6 Capricorn.  This is closest on Friday and Saturday.  The aspect to Mars symbolizes strife and conflict, perhaps even violence.  The November 9th PEOTUS horoscope ought to be a reference for all matters that occur during Trump's term as president.  It could even represent events that do not involve him personally, although I would think it is more likely to symbolize events that pertain directly to him. 

The late week Sun-Mars conjunction hints at the possibility that we could see another chapter in this endless political wrangling over health care in DC.  A full or even partial repeal seems unlikely but there could be some interesting developments that could have ramifications down the road.  But the bottom line is that while Obamacare should remain in place now, it will be in serious jeopardy next year.  Even Barack Obama's horoscope is under heavy stress in September 2018 when Saturn stations direct opposite his Venus.  I wonder if his signature health care legislation will finally be superseded at that time.  Stay tuned.


Weekly Market Forecast

Investors shrugged off the GOP legislative failure as US stocks moved higher again this week.  The Dow is again approaching a new all-time high while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have already made new highs today.   Other markets have been more mixed.  India's Sensex has essentially moved sideways over the past several sessions as it again finished above 32,000 on Wednesday. 

This outcome was in keeping with last Wednesday's market forecast as I thought we could see some upside.  This week's Venus-Jupiter aspect looked somewhat bullish as did last week's Mercury-Jupiter alignment.

The rest of this week looks less positive, however, as the Moon and Venus oppose Saturn during the US trading day on Thursday.  The approach of the Sun-Mars conjunction next week also carries with it an added downside risk, especially in the first half of next week. 

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Trump's Russia troubles deepen with son's emails

(12 July 2017) The ongoing Russia controversy involving President Donald Trump has taken center stage again this week.  Following a story by the New York Times,  Trump's son Donald Trump Jr.  released emails that revealed that he had met with a well-connected Russian lawyer before the election in order to obtain damaging information about Hillary Clinton.  

The details of the emails make the strongest case yet that the Trump campaign had knowledge of the Russian hacking efforts intended to get Trump elected.  While this may or may not not qualify as a clear case of collusion, it raises more questions about the legitimacy of Trump's presidency, to say nothing of his political viability as the head of the executive branch.   And if these emails have come out as the result of an investigation by the NYT,  one can only imagine what the ongoing FBI and Senate investigations may find down the road.

This is a clear setback for the Trump administration.  Not surprisingly, the planets were negatively aligned against the key players here: President Trump, Donald Trump Jr., himself and yes, even Vladimir Putin.   Let's take a look at these horoscopes one at a time. 

As I suggested in a June post on Trump, I thought the entry of Mars into sidereal Cancer on July 11th would likely bring bad news for him.  Well, that's definitely come to pass given that the NYT story appeared on Tuesday, the 11th.  The reason why the entry of Mars into Cancer is stressful for Trump is that the sign of Cancer is in his 12th house of loss and sorrows -- among other things.  

Mars is a malefic planet and it is said to be debilitated during its seven-week long transit of Cancer.  It's most negative attributes of anger, frustration, and mistaken actions are believed to manifest more readily during this transit.  And in Trump's chart, it just so happens that he was born when Saturn was at 0 Cancer.  That's exactly where Mars is this week, along with the upcoming conjunction with Venus at 2 Cancer on Friday.  Mars-to-Saturn transits usually coincide with very stressful situations that can be frustrating and involve a lot of hard work.  They aren't always bad, but in Trump's chart, the likelihood of bad news is greater because Saturn is in Trump's 12th house.  All other things being equal, it's considered a bad house in Vedic astrology, as it is in traditional Western astrological systems. 


Donald Trump Jr.

While Mars is not prominent in the horoscope of his son, Donald Trump Jr., the chart is nonetheless clearly afflicted this week and indeed, for much of the summer.  We don't know when the son was born but even an approximated chart shows that transiting Mercury (15 Cancer) was conjunct natal Mars on Tuesday (=frustrations, intense situations, angry communications). 

But the deeper problem with the chart is that the upcoming Saturn station in late August at 27 Scorpio will exactly conjoin his natal Mercury (27 Scorpio).  Saturn-Mercury aspects imply slow or blocked progress, especially in business or communication-related matters.  Setbacks are also likely more common with this pairing although it often depends on other factors.  We can also see that Saturn is forming a difficult square aspect with his Leo Moon.  Depending on how close it really is, which is birth time dependent, Trump Jr. is likely feeling depressed and isolated and may well be on the defensive for the duration of this transit. 

Without his time of birth, it is difficult to say with confidence that Trump Jr. will remain under pressure for the rest of the summer.  And yet, the transit alignments do tend to lean towards that conclusion.   The transiting Sun-Mars conjunction in late July and early August will line up with his natal Mars suggesting a very intense and perhaps conflictive situation.  Perhaps he will be called to testify in the Senate investigation at that time.  It's one of many possibilities.  


Vladimir Putin

Perhaps the most intriguing chart of the three is is that of Russian President Vladimir Putin.  After Putin's apparent PR win at the G-20 meeting on the weekend, revelations about the Russia meeting with Trump's son could be a big embarrassment.   Outside of the Trump White House, there is already a broad consensus within Washington that Putin and Russia were involved in meddling in the US election with the aim of electing Trump.  Now there is evidence that links members of Trump's campaign to the Russian government. 

Mars (0 Cancer) is again very active in Putin's chart as it was exactly squaring his Mercury (0 Libra).  Mars-Mercury transits are typically involved in stressful situations involving bad news, especially involving sudden events where intentions and plans unexpectedly fail.   Of course, it hasn't been all bad for Putin, as last weekend's G-20 summit occurred just as the Jupiter-Sun conjunction was approaching exact at 20 Virgo.   But Putin will still have to contend with the approaching Rahu-to-Ketu conjunction which is due to be exact in the fall.   This will coincide with the return of Saturn to its own conjunction with Mars (3 Sagittarius) in October and November.   Both of these patterns suggest significant obstacles.  But just to be clear, Putin's chart looks much less afflicted than President Trump's in the coming months. 

Another unusually telling chart is the Putin swearing-in chart  Putin took the Russian presidential oath for his third term as president on 7 May 2012 at noon.  We can see how the discovery of the Trump Jr. emails is apparently manifesting in this chart also.   Rahu (2 Leo) is just one degree from the Ascendant and indicates disruptions of order and expected events.  The Mars entry into the first degree of Cancer also happens to hit the cusp of the 12th house of loss and disappointment.  The bigger problem with this chart is that the retrograde Saturn (28 Scorpio) is sitting opposite the Venus (28 Taurus) and will continue to cast its affliction for the rest of the summer at least up until its late August direct station.  Venus may only be indirectly related to Putin's political fortunes, however.  It may also relate to renewed weakness in the Russian economy.

Saturn and the solar eclipse: the uncertain path ahead

August 20-23 will see Mars align with Rahu (North Lunar Node).  This will also align with the nasty Moon-Ketu conjunction in Trump's chart and therefore also bring in the Saturn station.  To matters even more weighty, the August 21st solar eclipse atop Trump's Ascendant could further intensify the importance of events at the end of August.  It is definitely a very serious alignment of planets here that speaks to some kind of highly stressful situation where Trump will likely feel the burden of presidency very heavily.

That major alignment of Mars, Rahu and Saturn will also be very close to the Ascendant of the Putin oath horoscope.  Whatever is happening at the end of August will likely create some problems for Putin and Russia.  Overall, it seems likely that the pressure from the Russia investigations will intensify for Trump and Putin over the next 4-6 weeks. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stock markets pushed higher on Wednesday after Janet Yellen indicated that the Fed would follow a cautious path towards normalizing interest rates.   The Dow is at new all-time highs now above 21,500.  India's Sensex is also making new highs this week above 31,500 on lower than expected inflation data.  In last week's forecast, I thought we might have seen more downside this week on the Mars-Ketu aspect.  

The rest of this week could see some gains on the Mercury-Jupiter alignment.  The first half of next week also offers bulls some hope for some upside as Venus aligns with Jupiter.  Things could get more interesting after that, however.   Some of the alignments noted above in August look unfriendly to financial markets.  I would be surprised if stocks remained at these lofty levels.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Defiant North Korea tests ICBM that can reach US

(5 July 2017) Geopolitical tensions are on the rise this week after a successful test launch of an ICBM by North Korea.  Pyongyang claimed the missile could reach as far as Alaska and had the capacity to carry a nuclear warhead.  The test is a potential game-changer in the ongoing stalemate between the renegade communist state led by President Kim Jong-Un and its increasingly alarmed neighbours.  China remains the key to any solution to the stand-off as it is North Korea's only substantial trading partner and foreign sponsor. 

After trying the softer approach under Obama, President Trump has tried to turn up the heat with tougher talk but so far has little to show for it.  In fact, Trump's tough approach may well have made things worse by pushing North Korea to test even more aggressive weapons against what it perceives to be a more imminent threat.  The problem for the US and its Asian allies is that there is no viable military option in the region.  Any pre-emptive attack on North Korea would result in tens of thousands of South Korean casualties at a minimum. 

As I have written previously, I don't foresee a major war happening this year.  Based on the approximate timed charts of Kim Jong-Un and North Korea, however, I think the odds for some kind of destabilizing military action rises in 2018 and especially in 2019.   One noteworthy factor is that President Kim will begin his Saturn-Mars dasha period in early March 2019.  Mars is the natural significator of conflict and war and its placement in Kim's chart with power-hungry Pluto is also indicative that the period will be marked by an intensifying sense of conflict.

In terms of transits, we can see that Uranus (4 Aries) is now opposite his Mars (4 Libra).  This is a bad transit that may make Kim Jung-Un more reckless than usual and is one important reason why he has conducted this test.  It also increases the likelihood of bad outcomes from aggressive actions.  Due to the slow velocity of Uranus, it will last for almost two years.  It will finally station direct at 4 Aries exactly opposite his Mars at the end of 2018 and early 2019.  This is a very dangerous combination that offers some confirming evidence for a greater likelihood of military or violent actions in that approximate time window.  

The test launch also occurred when Kim was likely feeling emboldened and powerful when Mars (25 Gemini) was opposite his Sun (23 Sagittarius) and therefore aligning with transiting Pluto (24 Sagittarius).  It's definitely an shoot first, ask questions later sort of alignment as Mars' desire for action is harnessed by Pluto's obsession with control and power.  The ego-driven Sun in the middle of this pairing has little choice but to follow through on these ambitions.

It's worth noting that the final Uranus-Mars opposition aspect will occur after transiting Saturn has conjoined all of this 1st house Sagittarius planets throughout 2018.  Saturn tends to be a planet that blocks progress so Kim may feel boxed in and lacking any other options.  

While I don't think a major armed engagement is likely in the coming weeks, we should pay special attention to a couple of Mars transits which could act as triggers for events that create worsening tensions. Mars moves much faster than Uranus so its aspect can often bring about events that fulfill the potential of transits involving slower-moving planets such as Uranus.  On July 16-20, Mars will square natal Mars Kim's chart.  This is likely to coincide with a difficult or aggressive event, perhaps one where luck goes against him.  It appears to be a setback of some kind. 

This also fits with the likelihood of some kind of conflictual or aggressive action in the coming weeks in Trump's PEOTUS chart as the Sun-Mars conjunction will be opposite the natal Mars.  With Uranus (4 Aries) very close to the 8th house cusp in July and August, there is an additional instability to the Trump administration this summer.   Uranus is the planet of sudden and unexpected events and the 8th house can signify setbacks and scandals.  It's hard to imagine an all-out war happening this soon, but it could well represent a serious ratcheting up of tensions, such as from a symbolic or incidental attack. 

Another period to watch in this respect would be August 8-12 when Mars aligns with his natal Ketu.  Maybe China pulls the plug on his regime in some way (sanctions, etc) or he suffers some kind of public embarrassment such as another failed missile launch.  It looks more serious than that though.  It's definitely a situation I will be following carefully. 



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have moved higher so far this week as investors focused on positive macro data in the US and in Europe.  The Dow was enjoyed a modest rise since last week as it closes in on 21,500 and a possible new record high.  India was also higher as the Sensex again pushed above 31,000 following the roll-out of the new GST.   This rise is not unexpected as in last week's market forecast I thought that the bullish influence of the entry of Venus into Taurus and the Sun-Jupiter-Neptune alignment would likely boost optimism. 

We could see a bit more upside this week as Mercury aligns with Venus on Thursday and Friday.  However, anxiety and pessimism may be on the rise in the coming days as Mars enters sidereal Cancer on Tuesday July 11th where it will form an unstable alignment with Ketu, the South Lunar Node.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.