Understanding China's stock market boom and bust

(11 May 2014)  Readers of this site will know that one of my main areas of astrological interest is the stock market.  While I find economics and investments inherently interesting, stock prices provide a continuous flow of data against which astrological ideas can be measured and evaluated.  The stock market is therefore incredibly useful for an evidence-based astrology where changing planetary alignments can be correlated against the ups and downs in the financial markets.  This is not to say any such correlations are easy or obvious since the potential number of independent variables in terms of planetary positions is almost prohibitively high.   The challenge for financial astrology is to exclude mixed conditions where no clear outcome is suggested and focus instead on the smaller number of high probability planetary scenarios where clearer outcomes are more apparent.

An an illustration of high probability alignments, we can look at the ups and downs of China's stock market.  Since unleashing the free market in 1978 under Deng Xiaoping, China's booming economy has been a key ingredient in global economic growth.  Its economic expansion reached its apex in 2007 just before the financial meltdown.  At that time, the Chinese stock market reached a high of 6000 on the Shanghai Composite Index in October.  Optimism had reached its maximum as domestic and foreign investors had bid up prices on stocks 500% in just the previous two years.  But the meltdown changed all that as stocks crashed through most of 2008.  The Shanghai Composite made a low of just 1700 in November 2008.  While it rallied back up to 3500 in 2009, the Chinese market has had a fairly lackluster performance over the past four years and is now near 2000.  Chinese stocks have not kept pace with the rebound in its economy in part due to restrictive government investment regulations.  This is one reason why some investors have shifted money out of stocks and into the real estate market there.  Whatever the economic explanation for poor stock market performance, we are more interested in whether there a clear astrological correlation for its ongoing bear market. 

 

There is a good case to made for a simple astrological explanation using secondary progressions.  This is a Western forecasting technique that is useful in accounting for longer term outcomes.  A secondary progression uses a symbolic equivalence of time of planetary motion so that one day is "progressed" to one year of clock time.   We can use the horoscope of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (Dec 19 1990, 9.30 a.m.) to describe the secondary progressed patterns in 2007 when the market hits its all-time high.  The high occurred 17 years after the launch of the exchange (2007 - 1990=17) and thus we refer the position of the planets 17 days after its inception, which was January 5, 1991.  The biwheel chart above shows how this progressed chart from Jan 5 1991 aligns with the natal chart.  Not surprisingly, there are a number of favourable patterns involving natural benefic planets.  Progressed Venus (5 Capricorn) is conjunct progressed Rahu (North Node) (4 Capricorn).  Venus-Rahu alignments tend to be positive, especially in matters involving material things such as money and investments.  One complicating factor was that both planets were 120 degrees away from Mars (4 Taurus).  While Mars is a malefic planet by nature, its aspect with Venus is not full-strength and hence less damaging.

The progressed Sun (20 Sagittarius) had conjoined Neptune in 2007 and this should also be seen as a broadly positive factor in accounting to the rally in Chinese stocks.  The progressed Ascendant (6 Aquarius) was also just past a 30-degree alignment with Venus-Rahu.  This would have been exact the year before in 2006 during the time when stocks were soaring from 1000 to 6000.  Also the progressed Midheaven (MC), the old Latin name for the 10th house cusp, was at 17 Scorpio and thus was in an exact 120 degree aspect with Jupiter (17 Cancer).  So we can see that the two more bullish planets, Venus and Jupiter, were simultaneously aligned with the key progressed angles in the chart, the Ascendant and the Midheaven, at the time when the Shanghai index hit its all-time high. 

If those positive alignments were close to exact at the high point of the market, it stands to reason that their eventual separation would correlate with growing weakness.  Markets tend to fall not only when malefic influences are dominant but also in the wake of positive aspects.  Once all those exact hits were separating, the Chinese market became more vulnerable.   Progressed Venus moved away from Rahu so that left only Rahu in aspect with Mars -- a decidedly negative combination.  

If we fast forward to the current progressed chart, we can see that malefics predominate.  Progressed Saturn (3 Capricorn) is very slowly approaching its conjunction with Rahu (4 Capricorn) while Mars remains at 4 Taurus.  This is a very difficult pattern since all three planets are natural malefics.   Even worse, is that Mercury (3 Sagittarius) is now part of that larger negative alignment.  Although Mercury's more positive effect might be seen as ameliorating the situation, in my experience this is rarely the case when benefics are outnumbered by malefics.  The presence of Mercury with Mars, Saturn and Rahu probably makes things worse.

But the good news is that Mercury may only have to move another one degree (= one more year) to have most of this negativity manifest.  By next year, Mercury will have moved past 4 Sagittarius and thus there is a chance that stocks will begin to rebound.  Saturn will still be close in its alignment with Rahu and Mars of course, but there may be less bearishness.  And we can see that progressed Venus (14 Capricorn) is approaching its aspect with Jupiter (17 Cancer).  This will be exact in 2016 so that offers some evidence that China's stock market is more likely to rebound after 2014.  It likely will not be enough to recapture the enthusiasm of the parabolic rally of 2006-2007 but it may at least provide a break from its bear market doldrums for a while.   The looming progressed Sun-Saturn conjunction is likely to undermine any major rallies, however.  This Sun-Saturn conjunction will be exact in 2020 and will activate Rahu and Mars since neither planet will have moved very far in the progressed chart.  This looks like another low point for the stock market in China.  


Financial Markets Update

US stocks were mostly mixed last week as the market pondered more soft Chinese economic data.  The Dow nonetheless closed at another all-time high at 16,583.  Indian stocks fared better on anticipation of a big BJP win in the Lok Sabha elections.  The Sensex climbed more 2% closing at 22,994.  I thought we might have seen a little more negativity given the growing Mars and Saturn influences but it seems that Jupiter's uplifting effects may well last into its aspect with Saturn on May 24th.  While US blue chips have maintained their lofty levels in the wake of the Jupiter alignment and the Grand Cross in late April, most other stocks have declined.

This week looks more favorable given the late week conjunction of Venus and Uranus.  Venus tends to have a positive effect on sentiment and this is even more likely here given the broader approximate alignment with Jupiter and Pluto.  Wednesday's alignment of the Sun, Moon and Saturn may coincide with some sober second thoughts, however.

The MERS virus arrives in the US: what is the threat?

(4 May 2014)  The US recorded its first case of MERS this week as an Indiana man returning from a visit to Saudi Arabia came down with the mysterious virus and was hospitalized.  He is said to be recovering and out of danger.  MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) is a new and deadly virus that has sickened more than 400 people, of whom a quarter have died since 2012.  MERS has similar features to the SARS virus that caused a worldwide travel alert in 2003.  While the MERS virus seems to be inefficiently transmitted and thus has remained fairly contained within Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, its high mortality rate is cause for concern.  But just how much of a threat is MERS?

In a previous article on SARS, I noted how global epidemics may be more likely to occur when the planet Neptune is prominent in some way, either by transit or within the national horoscopes of affected countries.  Although it is not always a malefic influence in our lives, Neptune is the planet most closely associated with disease and weakness.   When Neptune is in a close angular relationship with negative planets such as Saturn or the nodes, Rahu and Ketu, it tends to correlate with problems -- either diseases, floods, or even political scandals.  In addition to disease, Neptune is said to rule liquids and situations of deception and intrigue.  We should also note its more problematic side when it is placed in a negative dussthana house (6,8,12).  In the chart of an individual, a poorly placed Neptune can correspond with chronic disease or weakness.  It also tends to be prominent in the charts of people who abuse drugs and alcohol. 

By way of historic comparison, we can see that Neptune was quite prominent during the SARS outbreak in early 2003 (The above planetary listing is for March 12, 2003 when the WHO issued a worldwide alert).  First, transiting Neptune was sitting almost exactly on the ecliptic, i.e. the horizontal plane of the Sun and the solar system.  In common astrological measurement, Neptune's latitude was +00°01.  Due to Neptune's very slow velocity, Neptune was within two arc minutes of the ecliptic for all of 2003 during the SARS crisis.  This was a very rare event since Neptune only crosses the ecliptic at 00°00 once every 85 years or so.  In fact, the last time Neptune conjoined the ecliptic was in 1918-1919 at the time of the "Spanish Flu" pandemic that killed 50 million people.  Another way of expressing this ecliptic conjunction is that Neptune was transiting near its planetary node at 18 Capricorn.  Like the Moon, each planet has a pair of nodes.  Neptune's north and south nodes are around 18 Cancer and 18 Capricorn.  Whenever Neptune comes close to these points in the sky, we are more likely to see some obvious manifestation of its energy, whether it be an epidemic or flood.

The other thing worth noting about Neptune and the SARS epidemic was that Neptune was afflicted in the New Year's chart for January 1, 2003 at midnight.  Neptune (15 Capricorn) was aspected by both Rahu (14 Taurus) and Saturn (0 Gemini).  Rahu (North Lunar Node) is considered a natural malefic and casts a full strength 120 degree trine aspect.  Rahu-Neptune aspects would tend to bring out the dangerous side of Neptune, especially since Rahu symbolizes unboundedness.  This may have played a role in the inability of health authorities to control the epidemic which spread to many countries outside China including Canada, the US and Australia.  Saturn's 135 degree ("sesquisquare") aspect is not a full strength aspect but it is almost exact and therefore was likely a key part of the SARS puzzle from an astrological perspective.  Traditional Vedic astrologers should note that the 135 degree aspect between two planets in the natal chart produces a conjunction in the D-8 ashtamsa divisional chart.  The D-8 chart is associated with troubles and obstacles, not unlike the 8th house.

The current planetary situation for MERS looks less afflicted.  Neptune is not near its nodes (i.e. the ecliptic) so that should lessen the severity of this outbreak.  However, we can see that Neptune is afflicted in the 2014 New Year's chart.  Neptune (9 Aquarius) comes under the disruptive aspect of Rahu (11 Libra) and Neptune is placed in the 6th house of health and disease.  While the absence of any aspect from Saturn is favourable, Neptune is sitting very close to the equal house cusp of the 6th house not only for this year but for 2015 and likely 2016 as well.  Neptune moves only two degrees per year and where the locational Ascendant is near 15 Virgo, Neptune will have a potentially harmful effect on health.  The Ascendant varies a few degrees from country to country in the New Year's chart in any given year, usually close to mid-Virgo.  

The bottom line here is that the planetary picture suggests that MERS will not be as bad as SARS, nor thankfully, as the 1918 flu.  This is perhaps already evident given its relatively lower profile over the past two years.   Experts may still fear it could mutate into something more easily transmissible but the astrological evidence, such as it is, does not support that view.   However, the persistence of Neptune's placement in the 6th house of the New Year's chart suggests that MERS and perhaps other epidemics will remain a significant concern through 2014.  September and October this year could be times when MERS comes into sharper focus given the partial aspects of Saturn and Rahu to Neptune at that time.  Looking ahead, I would note that Saturn forms a forward square aspect with Neptune late in 2015 and through much of 2016.  This could increase the likelihood of suffering and harm from Neptune-related situations like disease and flood.  Neptune will also be conjoined by Ketu in mid- to late-2016 so that could be a time when humanity is more vulnerable to MERS or some other viral disease or collective illness.


Financial Markets Update

Despite ongoing worries over Ukraine, US stocks moved higher last week on strong earnings reports.  The Dow hit a new all-time high and closed up 1% at 16,512.  Indian stocks slipped on pre-election profit taking with the Sensex ending the week at 22,403.  I had suggested the week would be fairly mixed given the positive and negative short term aspects here. I did wonder what effect, if any, the separating Jupiter-Uranus aspect might have on optimism and stock prices.  So far, we would have to say that there hasn't been much change in the generally sunny disposition of most global investors.  The separation of this Jupiter aspect is a gradual process so we should not be surprised if nothing much happens in the near term.  Over the medium term, however, I would be more skeptical about the ability for stocks to remain at these lofty levels.  Of course, some location conditions such as the Indian election and the probability of a BJP win could temporarily offset any diminution of the bullish Jupiter influence.

This week looks a little more bearish as the Sun lines up against Saturn and Venus begins to oppose Mars.  Both of these pairings look difficult.  Early week gains are possible, however, as the Sun aligns with Jupiter.

Tensions rise in Ukraine as Putin weighs his options

(26 April 2014)  The Ukraine Crisis remained front and center last week as Russian troops massed on its eastern border while NATO beefed up its military presence in nearby Poland.  Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be ignoring diplomatic efforts and Western economic sanctions aimed at defusing the situation as the world is entering a new and dangerous Cold War 2.0.  Putin seems unwilling to accept the new pro-Western government in Kiev and is giving aid to pro-Russian factions in Eastern Ukraine.  If Russia sends its army into Ukraine, it would mark a new phase in the crisis which will send shock waves throughout the world. 

As I have written previously, the current Mars retrograde cycle is one possible culprit for this geopolitical impatience and brinksmanship.  Mars turned retrograde back on March 1st and will culminate its backwards journey through the sky on May 20th.  Mars retrograde may be less about the implications of the backward direction of the red, warrior planet than its velocity.  When a planet is retrograde, it is moving more slowly than normal.  As a rule, slower moving planets have more energy and become more prominent in their effects.  It is not too surprising that this slow moving Mars is correlating to a greater sense of conflict and an inability to compromise. 

This is even more the case, perhaps, because we see that Mars is moving through the sign of sidereal Virgo which is key in the horoscope of Vladimir Putin. Putin was born with four planets in Virgo including the Sun, the planetary seat of the ego.  As Mars is due to remain in the sign of Virgo until June, it seems less likely that Putin will be in favour of compromise.  Remember, too, that Putin's Sun is closely conjunct Saturn, the planet of control.  Putin's Sun (20 Virgo) has been highlighted by the Grand Cross alignment at 19 degrees so it is perhaps not too surprising that he is under a lot of stress at the moment.   With his Sun exactly opposite transiting Uranus and exactly square Pluto, he is more prone to sudden actions, unconventional behaviour, and intense coercive situations.   While he may appear to be playing the strongman to Obama's more cautious reactive approach, this planetary pattern does not seem favourable to him.  Putin's Mars-Sun aspect encourages vitality and the expression of energy but the Uranus influence may push him towards unpredictable actions.  In more peaceable individuals, the Mars aspect could manifest as initiative directed towards constructive change.  In more stubborn Sun-Saturn individuals like Putin, however, Mars may be activating his need to make decisions on his own to protect his narrow interests. 

We can consult the horoscope of Ukraine for further clues about whether Russia will invade. As I have noted previously, Ukraine's revolution in February occurred just as transiting Saturn formed a near-exact square alignment with the Moon.  As the crisis has unfolded over the past two months, Mars has moved back through Virgo and has thereby aspected the North Node, Rahu, through its square aspect.  This is a very apt aspect for an ongoing situation that is marked with instability and violence.  During the course of the Mars retrograde cycle, Ukraine has seen its province of Crimea taken over by Russia as well as ongoing unrest in eastern cities like Donetsk.  The other key affliction here is that Ketu, the South Node, is in tight trine aspect with the stellium in early Leo, Jupiter, Mercury, Venus and the Sun.  Ketu is a tricky influence at the best of times but it is in Aries here, which is ruled by Mars and Mars, of course, is too strong by virtue of its retrograde motion and destabilized by its opposition with Uranus.  That is a fairly problematic chain of significations for Ketu and hence its aspect to those four Leo planets is one big reason why the crisis is not abating.

I am expecting the crisis to reach its peak tension in mid-May just before Mars returns to direct motion.  Mars is due to station direct at 15 Virgo on 19-20 May.  This will form an exact square aspect to the Ascendant (15 Sagittarius) as well as Uranus (16 Sagittarius).  Mars will be at its maximum intensity at this time so we should expect for an increase in the conflict and a probable rise in violence.  This is another piece of evidence that argues for the crisis to get worse before it gets better.  I would think an invasion by Russia becomes more likely given this very exact Mars-to-Ascendant aspect. 


Financial Markets Update

Despite the saber-rattling in Russia, markets were mostly flat last week as positive earnings reports kept buyers interested.  The Dow edged lower closing at 16,361 while the Indian Sensex moved slightly higher to 22,688.  The midweek Grand Cross alignment did not live up to its hype as markets did not move much.  While I thought this pattern could be significant, I was not convinced that we were going to see any big developments.  This skeptical view turned out to be correct as we only saw weakness come into the stock market in the late week. 

Interestingly, we are now on the leeward side of the Jupiter aspects to Uranus and Pluto as the Grand Cross begins to separate.  While these planetary alignments may not be reliable enough to set your watch to, they are useful barometers for general trends in sentiment.  When Jupiter forms a close angle with one or more of the outer planets, then markets tend to rise.  When it moves past the angle, markets become more tentative.  We are now entering into a post-Jupiter aspect phase now so there may be less bullish optimism available for investors to tap into. 

Aside from the possible diminishing influence of Jupiter, this week looks a bit mixed.  Venus enters Pisces on Sunday and Mercury aligns with Jupiter early in the week so we could see some upside.  However, we should note that Mars aligns with the Sun also during the week so that could coincide with more uncertainty and some downside.  It will be an informative test of the residual strength of post-Jupiter alignment this week.

US stocks sell-off ahead of Lunar Eclipse

(13 April 2014)  Stocks were mostly lower last week as weak data out of China and Japan suggested the global economy may be slowing.  The technology sector led US stocks lower as the the Dow lost more than 2% closing near the 16,000 level.  The Indian market fared better on optimism on the growing likelihood of a Modi election win.  The Sensex touched a new all-time weekly closing high at 22,628.  This largely bearish outcome was somewhat surprising as I thought we might have seen more strength later in the week on the Mercury-Venus aspect.  Monday was negative across the board as the Sun-Mars aspect fulfilled its bearish promise and then we began to see Mercury and Venus take hold after that.  But the late week sell-off appeared to foreshadow the coming of a more difficult Mars influence (see below).

I had also thought that stocks would likely remain fairly firm here in the first half of April as the Jupiter-Uranus-Pluto aspect becomes exact on April 20th.  This is a fairly reliable bullish influence and is the main planetary reason for the rally in Q1 2014 and the current lofty levels of most stock markets worldwide.  Despite, the recent pullback, stocks ARE very high and many observers are talking about a possible bubble and the necessity of a correction.  Admittedly, we have seen some erosion in stocks a little ahead of schedule.  This is a good reminder that the sky is not laid out as digitally as we would like and that interpreting planetary influences has more in common with economic modeling than Newtonian physics.  The former has to do with conscious human behaviour while the other deals with more predictable inanimate matter.  

Things are getting interesting now that we move into the second half of April.  Not only is the positive Jupiter-Uranus energy likely to wane once its aspect moves past, but we are now entering the eclipse period from April 15th to 29th.  Eclipses tend to introduce more instability and uncertainty into human affairs and are therefore more commonly connected with trend reversals in the stock market.  That said, they are not high probability factors for a reversal and usually need to be part of a larger matrix of destabilizing planetary placements.  Tuesday's Lunar Eclipse looks fairly benign actually as it occurs at 1 Libra and lacks any tense aspects with other planets.  There are other aspects which do look problematic, however, (e.g. Mars opposite Mercury) so it is still worth watching.  The Solar Eclipse is due on April 29th and will occur at 14 degrees of Aries.  This may be more problematic due to the retrograde condition of Aries' dispositor Mars. 

Perhaps more important is the upcoming Grand Cross pattern on April 22-23.  This is an extremely rare pattern where four planets (Mars, Jupiter, Uranus and Pluto) are each separated by a square aspect of 90 degrees.  The square aspect is considered tense and is more associated with difficulty and declines.  This particular Grand Cross is noteworthy because it is so exact -- each square aspect is exact by less than 20 minutes of arc (each degree contains 60 arc minutes).  The picture is more complicated because bullish Jupiter is present in this alignment with bearish Mars.  Which energy will prevail?  Uranus and Pluto are usually neutral and take on whatever energy is predominant in the aspect.  But with the overall valence of the alignment uncertain, it is unclear just what, if anything, will happen around those dates of exactitude.  The history of astrology is full of seemingly perfect alignments that didn't produce much of anything in the way of clear results.  Therefore, we should be cautious about over-hyping the Grand Cross here, especially as regards to financial markets.  I would put it this way: the chances for a significant move is increased with this pattern but it is not what I would call probable.  I would not be surprised if nothing much happened out of the ordinary.  And yet with Mars still retrograde until May 19th, the current financial mood looks mediocre at best.  The lack of a strong Jupiter in the coming days means the market may become more vulnerable to declines.

This week offers a real mix of aspects.  Tuesday's eclipse is made more tense due to the close Mars-Mercury opposition aspect.  This is likely to produce some negativity during the midweek period.  It is possible that we could see some more optimism beforehand on Monday's Mercury-Uranus conjunction but this may be fleeting.  Thursday's Venus-Jupiter aspect is similarly bullish in its bias although it may be difficult to offset the effects of the eclipse and the Mars aspects.   It should be an interesting week! 

 

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India goes to the polls

(6 April 2014)  Voting in the world's biggest democracy begins tomorrow as India goes to the polls to elect a new government.  The BJP-led NDA alliance is well ahead in recent polls so it is seems likely that Narendra Modi will be the next Prime Minister after the final results are announced on May 16th.  There is still some doubt if the NDA will have the required 272 seats for a majority in the Lok Sabha or if other parties will have to be coaxed into joining any BJP government.

As I noted in this space last week, the astrological influences are broadly favourable to a Modi and BJP victory.  Of course, without clearly established birth times for either Modi or Congress candidate Rahul Gandhi it is more difficult to make a categorical prediction of the outcome.  Various birth times have been suggested for both candidates, but thus far none has emerged as definitive or accurate.  For this reason, we need to use whatever auxiliary means to provide supporting evidence for forecasting the outcome. 

The chart of India may be useful in this respect.  In the course of my research into political astrology, I have found that a change in governing parties is more likely whenever there is a clear affliction to 1) the Sun; 2) the 10th house cusps (equal and unequal), or 3) the 10th house sign lord.   The 10th house symbolizes government, while the Sun is typically associated with leaders and government.  By affliction, I mean a close aspect (usually less than two degrees) from malefics Saturn, Rahu, Ketu, or the outer planets -- Uranus, Neptune and Pluto.  The greater the number of afflicting planets, the more likely the change in governing parties and the more historically significant the change in government direction (e.g. a shift from left to far right). 

We can see how the charts of previous major changes in government have followed these rules.  The Desai-led Janata Party victory in 1977 was the first non-Congress government since independence.  We can see that transiting Saturn (16 Cancer) was conjunct natal Saturn (10th house sign lord) at 20 Cancer.  Transiting Ketu (0 Aries) was closely trine (120 degrees) to the Sun (28 Cancer) thus representing a second level of affliction to the sitting government.  Finally, the unequal 10th house cusp at 21 Capricorn was aligned with both Neptune (22 Scorpio) and Pluto (19 Virgo).  Outer planets do not move very quickly -- just a few degrees per year -- so I take any multiple of 30 degrees as significant in this regard.  These aspects from Neptune and Pluto therefore also applied to 10th house lord Saturn. 

Congress returned to power in May 2004 with a Singh-led government following the defeat of the BJP.  Here, too, we can spot the key afflictions.  Transiting Neptune was exactly conjunct the unequal 10th house cusp at 21 Capricorn.  Neptune therefore also exactly opposed the 10th house lord, Saturn.  In its negative form, Neptune's primary mode of action is through weakening or dissolving the subject in question.  Transiting Pluto (27 Scorpio) was almost exactly trine the Sun (28 Cancer) reflecting a major change in government.

Turning our attention to the current situation, we can see that the government-related factors in India's chart are under considerable affliction.  First and foremost, transiting Saturn (28 Libra) is now in a close square to the Sun (28 Cancer).  This has been ongoing for the past few months due to Saturn's retrograde cycle which has elongated this transit contact.  While Saturn continues to move backwards in the sky, it will still be within less than three degrees of an exact aspect from 25 Libra when the results are announced on 16 May.  When Saturn ends its retrograde cycle in July at 22 Libra, it will be in a close square aspect with the unequal 10th house cusp at 21 Capricorn. 

We can see another major affliction to the 10th house lord Saturn (20 Cancer) from transiting Uranus at 21 Pisces -- a 120 degree trine aspect.  Actually, this is a double affliction since the unequal 10th house cusp sits at 20 Capricorn and thus Uranus aligns also with that point within just one degree of a 60 degree sextile aspect.  Uranus is typically involved in situations of rapid change and instability.  Transiting Pluto (19 Sagittarius) is also part of this alignment with Saturn and the unequal 10th house cusp as it aligns very closely to both.  Pluto is also associated with change although it tends to be more thoroughgoing and often times more forceful.  It can also be slow and deliberate.  Given that both transiting Uranus and Pluto are active in the India chart suggests that the nature of the government changeover will be multi-faceted and historically significant.  Indeed, the general expectation is that the incoming Modi administration will press ahead with fundamental free market reforms of the Indian economy.  These new policies will be aimed at eliminating the statist hangovers from the early post-independence period. 

We can also note that the supporting presence of both Venus (21 Pisces) and Mercury (21 Taurus) in this larger alignment on May 16.  These fast-moving planets should be seen as auspicious midwives of the major changes that will likely come to India during the next NDA government.

The bottom line here is that the horoscope of India offers more evidence for a BJP-NDA victory.  Moreover, the extent of the various planetary afflictions suggests that Mr. Modi will likely form the next government without significant delay or complication.


Financial Markets Update

Stocks were mixed last week as the lackluster US jobs report undermined gains from earlier in the week. The Dow finished higher at 16,412.  Indian stocks were mostly flat absent any new cues ahead of the first round of voting.  The Sensex closed at 22,359.  I thought we would see some early week gains on the Sun-Uranus conjunction and that was largely the case in the US and Europe.  While generally bullish here on the ongoing Jupiter-Uranus aspect, this neutral outcome for the week was basically in line with expectations. 

This week could see some early week turbulence around the Sun-Mars opposition.  This aspect is exact on Tuesday but could depress sentiment somewhat for the first half of the week.  The second half of the week should be more positive on the Mercury-Venus alignment.  Overall, I would be surprised to see stocks finish the week too far from their current levels.

 

Narendra Modi to be next Indian PM?

(30 March 2014)  If recent media polls are any indication, it looks like the BJP's Narendra Modi will be the next Prime Minister of India.  Modi has enjoyed a large double digit lead over Congress rival Rahul Gandhi for several months and with voting to begin on 7 April, it seems quite likely that the BJP will oust the Congress Party in the Lok Sahba elections.  The elections take place over a five-week period with the announcement of the final results due on 16 May.  The Indian stock market rallied strongly on the expectation of a BJP win as investors anticipate more pro-business policies from a Modi-led government.

While we do not know Modi's time of birth, we can cast his Chandra Lagna chart from his date of birth, 17 September 1950.  When the Ascendant is unknown, the Moon can be used as a substitute Ascendant to approximate the 1st house in a chart.  The Moon is in Scorpio with Mars suggesting a capable and assertive character who can act decisively.  He was born was a very strong stellium of planets in close conjunction in sidereal Virgo: Saturn, Sun, Mercury and Ketu (south lunar node).  The exact Sun-Mercury-Saturn conjunction is indicative of an intellectual, rational and disciplined orientation.  The Saturn influence here is typical of a person who understands and respects rules and traditions.  The Saturn influence on Mercury and the Sun also gives him a natural caution and discipline and an ability to think deeply and systematically on the matter at hand.

If there is a wild card in the chart, it is through the presence of Ketu at 5 Virgo in close proximity to these other Virgo planets.  Ketu brings a more subtle form of perception and a possible need to link actions to a higher purpose or meaning.  Ketu is often linked to spiritual or other-worldly considerations among individuals who are so inclined.  This may or may not be relevant to Modi's leadership of the BJP, which is an explicitly Hindu party unlike the secular and multicultural Congress Party.  In more everyday matters, a prominent Ketu can indicate a willingness to entertain unorthodox solutions to common problems.  Modi is widely seen as someone who is likely to overturn the vested interests and corruption of India's political and bureaucratic classes in favour of a more streamlined and market-driven approach to the economy.    Modi's high profile and level of success can be glimpsed in the relative positioning of that four-planet conjunction in Virgo (or the last degree of Leo in the case of Saturn) in the 11th house from the Scorpio Moon.  The 11th house represents gains and wishes fulfilled and is often prominent in the charts of very successful people.  Put simply, a strong 11th house means the person realizes their goals and gets what they want.  This is one important difference between a successful and high profile person and one who is more modest in their achievements. 

Without his birth time, it is difficult to make any specific predictions about the election outcome.  Certainly, his chart looks strong in 2014 so that should be generally commensurate with wide recognition and success.  One interesting thing we can do is to see how Modi's horoscope fits with the horoscope of India.  This is a way of understanding to what extent he can capture the energy of the country as a whole and how he will leave his mark.  We can see that his Moon-Mars conjunction in Scorpio sets up nicely close to the 7th house cusp, directly opposite the Ascendant at 7 Taurus.  I see this as an essential resonance between his actions (Mars) and feelings (Moon) and those of the country (Ascendant).  Modi's real political connection with India may be his Jupiter at 6 Aquarius.  His Jupiter sits at the very top of the India chart in the 10th house representing status and leadership, just one degree away from the equal 10th house cusp at 7 Aquarius.  Jupiter symbolizes wisdom, wealth and fortune and therefore should be seen as Modi's trump card in this election.  This very powerful placement of his Jupiter suggests that Indians see him a wise and noble person who can improve their lives.  This is an excellent placement for any politician who is contesting an election.

Modi's chief rival is Rahul Gandhi (19 June 1970) of the Congress Party.  His chart enjoys no similarly exemplary overlays with the chart of India.  There may be some positive contacts in Rahul's chart but the presence of his Rahu in India's 10th house seems less promising.  Based on this criteria, we would have to say: advantage Modi. 


Financial markets update

Indian stocks rose sharply last week as the Sensex gained 3% closing at new all-time highs above 22,000.  By contrast, US stocks were more mixed as persistent worries over the Ukraine kept the bulls from running.  The Dow was mostly flat closing at 16,323.  I had been fairly neutral about last week as I noted the blend of positive and negative aspects.  The midweek Mercury-Jupiter aspect seemed to fit with gains in India but US stocks were mostly weaker after Tuesday's gain. 

This week looks quite bullish to start as the early week Sun-Uranus conjunction will align with Jupiter and Pluto.  Just how many up days we will see remains to be seen as Mercury aligns with Mars and Saturn midweek.  One would think that once the Sun-Uranus conjunction occurs, we are likely to see some declines.  Of course, with the Jupiter-Uranus aspect still approaching (due April 20th), there is good reason to stocks should be able to mostly hold their own here.

 

Yellen comments boost US Dollar

(24 March 2014)  Fed Chair Janet Yellen threw the US Dollar a life preserver last week.  Yellen's off the cuff remark that the Fed could raise interest rates just six months after ending its QE program later this year caught markets by surprise as it was sooner than many expected.  Stocks and gold sold off and the Dollar took flight on anticipation the higher rates may be on the way as soon as early 2015.  Despite the threat of higher rates, the Fed is maintaining its zero interest rate policy for the foreseeable future and will likely only raise rates if there is more weak economic data to justify such a move.  As long as official core inflation remains below 2% and growth is sluggish, the Fed has promised to keep the cost of borrowing money as low as it can. 

But the question is whether Yellen's comment was a rookie mistake or a sign of an evolution of interest rate policy as the Fed seeks other means to support the US economy.  More pointedly, is the Dollar going to extend its rally against other world currencies as more investors anticipate higher US interest rates?   My analysis suggests that the Dollar may have turned the corner as it is likely to strengthen in the weeks and months ahead against a backdrop of rising interest rate expectations. 

Ideally, we could look for confirmation in the horoscope of the US Dollar.  Alas, no such chart exists.  The Dollar was created by a legislative act in early 1792 but the exact timing of it is unknown.   As a proxy for the Dollar, I have found it more useful to use the horoscope of the Euro which is better documented and then infer the converse movements of the Dollar from that chart.  While several starting times are possible for the Euro, I have found that its legal inception at midnight on January 1, 1999 works fairly well. 

We can see how afflictions to the Euro chart corresponded closely with the sudden rally in the US Dollar after Yellen's comments.   Transiting Mars (1 Libra) is exactly square the natal Venus (1 Capricorn).  This is usually a negative influence although due to the relatively slow velocity of Mars in its retrograde cycle, this aspect was in effect for several days.  Transiting Ketu (4 Aries) is conjunct natal Saturn (3 Aries), although here again the slow motion of Ketu (South Lunar Node) means that this influence was in effect for several days (if not weeks) and was not specific to the day of the Fed meeting.  But the transiting Sun does move more quickly at one degree per day and we can see that the Sun had aligned exactly opposite the Ascendant of this chart.  This highlighted the Ketu-Saturn affliction since the Sun formed an alignment with Ketu/Rahu on a transit basis, irrespective of the natal chart.  The fact that this Sun-Ketu alignment occurred in aspect with both the Euro's Ascendant and Saturn made it have that much more impact. 

This chart also suggests that the recent strength in the Euro in February and March may not continue into April.  The Euro had strengthened in February and early March likely due to the extended Jupiter-Uranus aspect which activated the natal Sun at 16 Sagittarius.  The Euro peaked just under 1.40 a week after Jupiter stationed on March 6th and resumed forward motion at 16 Gemini while in exact opposition aspect to the natal Sun.  Jupiter is a positive influence here with Uranus mostly supporting this strength in the Euro and weakness in the Dollar.  But now that Jupiter and Uranus are both moving away from their aspects with the Sun, I would think that the Euro will be more susceptible to declines.  Since the US Dollar Index is overweighted for the Eurodollar, this means that the Dollar is more likely to rise as Jupiter moves further from its station at 16 Gemini. 

The other good news for the US Dollar is that transiting Ketu will remain in close conjunction with natal Saturn in the Euro chart (and in alignment with the Ascendant) for several more weeks.   In fact, the true node measurement for Ketu has it exactly conjoining Saturn in mid-June.  Since both Ketu and Saturn are considered bearish influences, it suggests that the Euro is likely to weaken further between now and June.  Therefore, the Dollar looks likely to extend last week's gains in the weeks ahead. 


Financial Markets Update

While stocks declined after Yellen's comments, US stocks actually rose for the week with the Dow closing at 16,302.  Indian stocks edged slightly lower with the Sensex finishing at 21,753. The mostly bullish outcome was in line with our expectations as the early week Venus-Jupiter aspect did coincide closely with gains.  I also noted that the Sun-Rahu aspect fell on the day of the FOMC meeting and that it might be less than positive.

This week looks like a mixed picture.  Monday's saw gains in Asia for declines in the US and Europe.  The midweek Mercury-Jupiter aspect looks quite bullish generally but Mars enters Virgo this week and then aligns with Saturn by Friday.  This would seemingly limit any upside and also increase downside risk.