Berlusconi gains influence amidst uncertain Italian election

(3 March 2013)  Financial markets took a hit last week as Monday's Italian election did not produce a clear winner.  Even worse was the fact that anti-austerity parties including the one led by disgraced former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi vowed not to co-operate with the party headed by pro-EU candidate Pier Luigi Bersani.  It may take days or even weeks before a working coalition is formed.  If no coalition can be cobbled together, we can look forward to another election in short order and yet more political uncertainty.  Most global markets fell sharply early in the week as investors contemplated the real possibility that Italy may sink back into its economic morass and thereby drag down the rest of Europe with it.  US markets recovered by week's end, however, as the Dow closed modestly higher at 14,089.   It was a different story in Mumbai, however, as investors gave Thursday's budget a lukewarm response as no new growth policies were announced.  The Sensex lost 2% on the week closing at 18,918. 

The week unfolded largely as expected as I noted how the early week alignment of Mercury, Mars and Rahu (North Lunar Node) looked troublesome and increased the likelihood of some kind of fallout over Italy's election.  This proved to be correct.  The recovery later in the week also roughly corresponded with the bullish Venus-Neptune conjunction.  While this was not the case in India due to local peculiarities of the budget, it is worth noting that stocks were higher on Thursday up to 11 a.m. before the budget was released.

The Berlusconi Effect on the markets is a fascinating one.  Given his track record of scandal and financial incompetence, his new-found political strength may well be toxic for markets.  The closer he gets to power, the more frightened the investment community becomes.  Berlusconi rejects the austerity program implemented by outgoing PM Mario Monti He also wants to do away with various new tax measures that seek to increase government revenue.  This has proven enormously popular as it appeals to the public's desire to avoid economic pain, no matter how short-sighted or irrational it may be.  Berlusconi is a politician, after all, and not a banker.   His job is to get elected and this is usually accomplished by telling people what they want to hear, not what may be in the best interests of the country. 

Given his revival, it is perhaps not surprising that Berlusconi's horoscope shows considerable strength at the moment.   Focusing only on the simplest and more compelling influences, we can see that Jupiter and Uranus are in close aspect to his Sun-Mercury conjunction in the 1st house.  This has boosted his public profile enormously in the past several months.  We can see that Jupiter and Uranus are both moving very slowly here and hence their positive influence is protracted.  Jupiter stationed at 12 Taurus at the end of January in a very tight aspect to his Sun (12 Virgo).  This is a classic combination for success, achievement, and recognition.  Although we are more than one month after that direct station, Jupiter has only moved two degrees and remains very close to this Sun.  Even as it separates from the Sun, it delivers more strength to Berlusconi via its aspect to his natal Mercury at 16 Virgo.  Bunga-bunga, indeed.   The dashas are also favourable to him as Venus-Mercury began in late 2012.  Both planets are natural benefics and both look to be quite well positioned in his natal chart as both are in their respective home signs.  For all these good influences, though, Berlusconi didn't win the election and seems unlikely to become the next Prime Minister according to most commentators. 

I do not have a strong enough sense of his planets to make a clear prediction either way.  I would say, however, that the planets do favour him for much of the month of March.  Just how far he can go with these influences is another question.  It certainly wouldn't surprise me if he was named PM once again.  The Jupiter-Uranus combination is one of the most potent ones a person can have in their chart.  But I would tend to think that he won't make it all the way to PM.  But it may be that the benefit that Berlusconi receives from this aspect is an ability to maneuver behind the scenes to arrange key cabinet members that better reflect his interests.  The puppeteer returns to power behind the scenes.  The short term aspects this week appear to favour him even more.  We can see that the Moon, the 11th lord of gains, will be conjoined by the Sun, Venus and Mercury at various times.  These are all positive influences that load the dice in his favour.  Things are likely to go his way this week and perhaps into next.  Perhaps his party will emerge the winner in the Senate, or the coalition will have significant representation from his party.  One potential trouble spot is Rahu's close aspect with natal Saturn.  Saturn is strong in the 6th house, so this may simply reflect the shadowy or surprising (Rahu) competitors and enemies he has to contend with at the present moment.   It may also weaken his health somewhat since Saturn rules the 6th house (Aquarius).  

So Berlusconi is likely to be a winner in some way from these elections as Jupiter will aspect Mercury in the coming weeks.   However, if we look further down the road, we can see that transiting Saturn will eventually station at 10 Libra in July.  This will be just three degrees away from his Venus and just one degree from Venus' node.  This is a difficult influence that suggest troubles involving women, which is perhaps not surprising given his history of public womanizing.  But Pluto and Uranus will also be forming hard aspects to his Mercury (16 Virgo) around the same time.  This is probably not good either, especially since Mercury rules the 1st house.   His progressed chart is also very afflicted (not shown) so it seems that Berlusconi will suffer a major setback in the summer.  If there happens to be another election at that time, he is almost certainly going to do poorly.   He may also have more health concerns on these transits, given his relatively advanced age.

The planets this week again offer more possibilities for declines, albeit mixed in with some good aspects.   Monday's Venus-Jupiter aspect could coincide with some upside but by Tuesday, Mars will enter sidereal Pisces and thereby join Uranus.  This is not a stable pairing of energies.  Mars-Uranus aspects can produce sudden or shocking events, and for this reason they are associated with market crashes.  The conjunction is quite wide here so I tend to think we aren't in crash territory and likely won't be.  But it is a burden on the early week.  The midweek could go either way as Mercury conjoins Venus on Wednesday and into Thursday.  This is normally a bullish combination but this time they form an alignment with Saturn and Pluto.  Any alignment with Saturn increases the possibility of declines.  It is by no means a sure thing -- few aspects are in financial astrology -- but it opens the door to more declines.  It will be interesting to see if those midweek aspects that look good for Berlusconi end up being negative for the markets thus reaffirming his profile as a contrarian indicator.

Transits for Wednesday 6 March 2013 9.00 a.m. Mumbai

Sequestration cuts likely inevitable as Saturn asserts control

(24 February 2013)  Financial markets showed some signs of nervousness last week as sequestration budget cuts loomed and evidence mounted that the Federal Reserve may end its quantitative easing program sooner than expected.   US stocks were largely unchanged as the Dow finished the week at 14,000 even.  Most other global markets were somewhat more bearish.  Indian stocks slipped by less than 1% as the Sensex finished the week at 19,317.   As expected, markets were generally stronger in the first part of the week as the planetary aspects were sufficiently bullish to offset the negativity from the Saturn's retrograde station on Monday the 18th.   And perhaps not surprisingly given this Saturn influence, gold continued its decline as it closed below $1600. 

More broadly, Saturn's bearish influence would appear to hang over this market as investors try to come to terms with a number of areas of uncertainty.    Monday's Italian elections are one potential mine field that could shake confidence, especially as it looks somewhat unlikely that a stable coalition will be formed.  The political wrangling in the US continues over the debt sequestration agreement is set to go into effect on Friday March 1.   With both sides now digging in, it now seems likely that the required (Saturnian) spending cuts will take place.  This is likely to reduce economic growth in 2013 and hamper recovery efforts.  We should also mention that Thursday's Indian Union Budget is another possible source of worry if the anticipated investment reforms are not delivered.

Of course, bull markets have to climb a "wall of worry" so perhaps the current situation is not all that unique.  And yet the planetary picture would offer the pessimistic view somewhat more confirmation.   Not only is Saturn virtually stationary in the sky (and hence more powerful) but it is forming a near-exact 60 degree angle with Pluto.  While various interpretations of this Saturn-Pluto aspect are possible, my sense is that this ramps up the negative potential in collective sentiment.  Pluto often represents compulsory structural change involving large organizations while Saturn dictates change through destruction and loss.   When it is strong and unafflicted, however, Saturn can also be a force for stability, restraint and continuity.  The problem here is that this more positive interpretation of Saturn is perhaps less likely given this geometric connection with Pluto.  The US budget cuts from the March 1 sequestration would appear to fit well into this aspect between Saturn (restraint) and Pluto (forced or compulsory actions).   It is less clear how the Italian election result will reflect this pairing.   Perhaps a win by the pro-austerity Bersani would reflect Saturn's current dominance and its emphasis on fiscal responsibility.  But there is always a distorting and destructive element with Saturn that is never too far away.  A shaky coalition government that includes more anti-austerity voices could also conceivably reflect some of his destructive Saturnian symbolism, especially if this encourages more caution and anxiety in Europe.   In this sense, the symbolism of Saturn is not always as unambiguous as one would like in an independent variable.  This makes predicting the markets with financial astrology very much an open-ended and probabilistic enterprise. 

This week the planets would appear somewhat negative.  There is a potent conjunction of Mercury and Mars on Monday and Tuesday that is in close aspect with Rahu (North Lunar Node).  This really looks quite nasty and may reflect quickly evolving situations where information is unclear or concealed.   Given the Italian elections conclude on Monday, it is not hard to draw a straight line from this alignment and some kind of negative market reaction.   That said, Monday also features a fairly supportive Sun-Jupiter aspect which is usually more bullish in its effects.   I wonder if this Jupiter influence will merely serve as an amplifier for the size of the reaction rather than a determiner of its content.  It's hard to say with certainty.   Thursday's Venus-Neptune conjunction is more bullish, so that may correlate nicely with a positive market reaction to the latest Indian Budget.

Transits for Thursday 28 February 11.00 a.m IST Mumbai, India

Gold plunges $50; stocks hold steady

(17 February 2013)  Stocks generally held steady last week as most economic data continued to suggest that the recovery is slowly proceeding apace. US Stocks were mostly unchanged as the Dow lost only a handful of points on the week closing at 13,981. Indian stocks were similarly flat as the Sensex was only marginally lower finishing at 19,468. I thought we might have seen more downside than we got as the array of short term aspects with Saturn suggested the possibility of declines. At the same time, I did not lose sight of the continuing aspect between bullish Jupiter and Uranus which has lifted collective sentiment for the past month or more. In other words, we had a result that did not violate our basic assumptions and remained within general expectations.

Gold had a more interesting week as it fell by 3% closing near $1610. It seems that all this fresh evidence of a recovery means that there is less reason for the Fed and other central banks to print money with various quantitative easing measures. This in turn reduces the possibility of inflation and the subsequent damage to the buying power of national currencies. In a more stable economic climate, gold is less attractive as an inflation hedge. The recent decline in gold is very much in keeping with our expectations as I thought we would see more weakness in February around the Saturn retrograde station. This has proved to be the case as Saturn turns retrograde tomorrow, on Monday the 18th. Gold broke a key technical support level at $1620-1640 last week and now there is a growing sense that it may remain bearish for a while here.

The 1919 natal chart for gold also reflects the current bearishness around the yellow metal. The 1919 horoscope represents the first public price for gold as arranged by a small group of London banks. It is certainly not the only relevant horoscope for gold but it is one that has often yielded some useful information. As we can see transiting Saturn -- a very bearish planet -- sits in the 1st house of this chart and casts its powerful square aspect to the triple conjunction of Mars, Neptune and Jupiter. This is a serious affliction, especially now that Saturn is stationary and therefore more powerful. On the other hand, we could also argue that both Jupiter and Uranus form harmonically significant aspects to the ascendant at 12 degrees of sidereal Libra. This ought to have produced some bullishness given the optimistic nature of Jupiter. As is often the case, Saturn tends to outweigh Jupiter, all other things being equal. In this case, however, they are actually worse as Ketu perhaps casts the more decisive vote towards bearishness. Ketu, the South Lunar Node, forms an exact trine aspect to the Sun-Venus conjunction in the natal chart. This is often a difficult influence and often coincides with sudden changes and instability. Given the centrality of Saturn in this chart at this time, we can see that Ketu would tend to show its more anti-materialistic side. Ketu is a good planet if you're seeking esoteric knowledge and spiritual enlightenment, but not so good if you're a gold bug in search of better investment returns.

This week all eyes are on Saturn is the gloomy ringed-planet turns retrograde on Monday. This is generally a negative influence on sentiment albeit one that can manifest in the background for some time.  The fact that it is aspecting Pluto is also a negative influence.  The short term aspects this week actually look somewhat promising. Monday's Moon-Jupiter conjunction is bullish, Tuesday's Moon-Venus aspect is also bullish and Wednesday's Sun-Neptune conjunction is also arguably bullish. Even Thursday's entry of Venus into Aquarius is bullish. I'm not sure how these bullish short term aspects will be reconciled with the medium term pessimism that will likely be conjured by Saturn turning retrograde. Perhaps there will be stalemate. It's very hard to say either way. I would tend to think that at least some of those bullish aspects should translate into gains at some point. Just how much upside they produce remains to be seen, however.

Transits for Thursday 21 February 2013

Global stocks fall on Europe uncertainty

Stocks were mixed last week as positive economic data coming out of China was offset by renewed European worries and the possible return of Berlusconi to Italian politics.  In New York, the Dow lost just a handful of points closing at 13,992.  Indian stocks fared worse, however, as GDP data came in below expectations.  The Sensex lost 2% and finished the week at 19,484.   The mixed outcome here was not surprising as I noted some difficult aspects in play on Monday (Mars-Neptune) and Friday (Mercury-Mars).  The midweek was somewhat less bullish than I might have hoped, however, as the Venus-Jupiter aspect produced only nominal gains. 

While US Stocks held up rather well last week, there are cracks forming in the recent rally across many global markets.   Could this be the beginning of a correction or merely a bump in the road on the way to higher prices?  As I have suggested previously, Jupiter may be on the verge of weakening here as it forms its closest angle with Uranus this week.  The Jupiter-Uranus combination is usually quite bullish but now it is at its maximum potential energy.  That means that further optimism may be in shorter supply going forward.   Saturn may already be asserting itself as the planet of bearish pessimism prepares to turn retrograde on the 18th.   It is moving very slowly already and last week's negativity is a possible symptom of Saturn's greater influence.   This influence is not evenly distributed across all markets, however, as individual charts still have an important role.

For example, the German DAX horoscope is becoming more afflicted these days from the Saturn station and its aspect with Pluto.   Like the Indian market, German stocks also suffered last week as renewed uncertainty about the upcoming Italian election and the scandal in Spain hit equities hard.  A quick look at this chart reveals the potential trouble spots.  Jupiter is strong in the 11th house but it is not closely aspecting any planet.  This would appear to reduce the possible upside here.  Pluto opposes the natal Sun in this chart while Saturn is about to station in a very close 120 degree aspect to the Sun.   Both are slow moving aspects so this is a potentially damaging affliction.   As an added wild card, we can see that transiting Ketu is in the 10th house and close to the cusp of that house at 25 degrees.   These are medium term afflictions that will likely inhibit the ability of the German market to rally in the weeks to come.  The presence of this strong Saturn aspect alongside the Pluto and Ketu placements also increases the possibility of some kind of negative move in February and beyond. 

This week looks like there is a lot of Saturn in the picture and hence the bias is to the downside.  Venus is in aspect with Saturn on Monday, while Mercury moves into position on Tuesday and then Mars on Friday.  To be sure, the high number of simultaneous aspects in play is in itself a bullish indication.  However, Saturn is very strong at the moment, and I would tend to think that there may be some fallout from this succession of interactions with Saturn.   We shall see.  All of these short term aspects of Sun, Mercury, Venus  are now past their exact point with Jupiter and hence any further upside may be somewhat less likely.

Apple falls 10% after earnings

Investors continued to see the glass as half-full last week as stocks climbed for their fourth straight week.   US stocks pushed to their highest level since 2007 as the Dow rose 1% to 13,896.   Indian stocks were only marginally higher, however, as the Sensex added 70 points closing at 20,103.  The week unfolded more or less as expected as the two Jupiter aspects did coincide with some upside at the beginning and end of the week.  The midweek Mars-Rahu aspect coincided with some weakness, although this manifested more clearly in Mumbai than in New York. 

One highlight last week was the release of the fourth quarter earnings from Apple.  While the tech giant reported record earnings, the sales were not quite was the market was hoping for and forward guidance was more cautious.  Apple stock plunged 10% on Thursday as a result.  Apple has lost more 30% of its value since its high of $702 on September 21 the day of the release of the long-awaited iPhone 5.   It has been in a sharp down trend ever since and now stands at $440.
 

We can see how these recent moves in Apple may have coincided with planetary patterns in the sky.  Using the IPO of Apple (12 December 1980), we can see that the all-time high occurred when the chart was largely free from affliction and reflected considerable strength.  Jupiter was transiting the benefic 5th house in Taurus and therefore aspected most of the planets in the chart at once -- the Sun, Mercury, Neptune in Scorpio, Jupiter and Saturn in Virgo and the Moon and Ketu in Capricorn in the Ascendant.  While none of the Jupiter aspects are super close, there was likely a cumulative effect of having so many key points in a chart under the influence of benefic Jupiter, the planet of optimism and expansion.   In addition, we can see that Rahu, the North Lunar Node, was exactly conjunct Uranus, the planet of sudden change and exuberance.  Uranus is well placed in the 11th house of gains so the Rahu effect would likely have allowed optimism to get carried away.  Rahu's influence is sometimes difficult to predict since it can make a good chart better and a bad chart worse.  In that sense, Rahu tends to magnify the prevailing effects in a horoscope.  Since this all-time chart was so overwhelmingly positive, it is not surprising that we should see Rahu acting a kind of catalyst and amplifier for Uranus in the house of gains and income.



Fast forward four months to the present and we can see what has changed.  Jupiter is still in Taurus but it has moved back to 12 degrees.  It is therefore forming a wider aspect with the key planets of the Sun and Moon and hence its positive effects would be somewhat lessened in this position.   And we can see that transiting Rahu has moved a few degrees and is now closely conjunct Venus.  Rahu is famous for its short-lived benefits and this definitely seems to be the case here.  Its conjunction with Rahu brought sudden riches but now it is expressing its more negative side with Venus.  The natal Venus-Uranus conjunction therefore is acting reciprocally as one would expect:  Uranus absorbed all of the positive energy away of Venus so now there isn't much left for the Rahu conjunction.   But the biggest difference here is that Saturn is about to station at 17 degrees of Libra in February.  This forms close aspects with Mercury and the nodes, Rahu and Ketu.   The Saturn station is very powerful and its 30 degree aspect with Mercury is just a few minutes from exact and hence very strong.  Mercury is therefore highly afflicted by Saturn, even if the aspect is not considered full strength by Vedic rules.  We can also see other afflictions in the mix on the day that Apple stock fell sharply.  Mars was square Rahu that day and it picked up the natal Venus almost exactly.   Transiting Venus was in the 12th house of loss just past its conjunction with malefic Mars. 

It is unclear when Apple can rebound from the current decline.  Saturn will remain in a powerful aspect with Mercury and natal Rahu for several more weeks so that could depress the stock further.  Over time,  Jupiter will again aspect all those of planets and hence it may improve sentiment over the next few months perhaps peaking in May.  After that, the next Saturn station in July could coincide with another move lower since it will form partial but exact aspects with both the Sun and Moon.   It is quite possible that Apple may hit new lows for the year at that time.

Looking ahead to this week in the markets, there are a range of short term aspects that could move sentiment.  The entry of Venus into Capricorn on Monday is a reasonably bullish influence for the early part of the week.  However, Wednesday's Sun-Saturn aspect and Friday's Mercury-Rahu aspect do not look favourable.  Even though Jupiter comes to a dead stop on Wednesday and should therefore have more upside to bestow upon investors, these bearish aspects may put a dent in the recent rally.

 


 

US Stocks rise on good earnings

Stocks rose in the US last week on positive earnings outlooks and more favourable economic data.  The Dow climbed less than 1% closing at 13,488.    Indian stocks dipped a bit as the Sensex finished the week at 19,663. The week unfolded more or less as expected as the early week Mars-Saturn aspect coincided closely with losses, although they were fairly modest.  Gains were more forthcoming later in the week and appeared to correspond with Thursday's Moon-Venus conjunction, although Indian stocks resisted this more general up trend.

With the debt ceiling debate looming in February, the Obama White House officially ruled out the possibility that it might mint a $1 Trillion coin as a means of avoiding the negotiations with House Republicans.  The proposal had been floated by some observers sympathetic to Obama as a way of raising the debt limit without having to go through the usual procedure of seeking approval from Congress.   So the debate and possible financial uncertainty may still lie in the near future.  The last such debate caused a significant decline in the stock market in the summer of 2011 as the Republicans were threatening to push the US to default on its debt obligations.  

 

The USA horoscope suggests there there may well be some significant tension in February, although it is unclear if this will be surrounding the debt ceiling.  The Mars-Neptune conjunction lines up very closely with the natal Moon in this chart and points to situations of animosity and conflict with a dose of confusion and possible deceit thrown in for good measure.   While one can imagine that this planetary pattern could correlate with some uncertainty in the stock market, it does not seem like a long-lasting situation.  There is a relative absence of slow moving transits in play here.  If it was going to be a serious stalemate along the lines that we saw in 2011, one would expect more participation from Saturn or the nodes, Rahu and Ketu.  But we don't see that here.   We do have that opposition aspect from Pluto to Jupiter.   That combination suggests power plays and manipulation but Jupiter is more closely symbolic of the judicial branch rather than the executive or legislative branches of government so I'm not convinced we will see a major problem emerge over the debt ceiling.  It's still but the afflictions in the USA chart don't look particularly grievous.

This week offers a range of planetary aspects, both good and bad.  Monday starts off with a fairly positive looking arrangement between the Moon, Venus and Jupiter, with Uranus and Chiron thrown in for good measure.  However, the Sun comes under the exact aspect of Ketu and that could cause some problems.  It still looks positive overall although we may put an asterisk beside it.  By midweek, Venus conjoins Pluto and this could well produce more gains.  Here again, Ketu is a complicating factor as it is due to aspect Mercury so may introduce some turbulence.  The late week may be less positive as the Sun conjoins Mercury on Thursday and Friday.

Market cheers Obama's fiscal cliff deal

US Stocks moved sharply higher last week as investors breathed a sigh of relief in the wake of the 11th-hour fiscal cliff deal.  The Dow jumped 4% on the week and closed at 13,435.  Optimism was somewhat more muted in Mumbai as the Sensex added 2% to start the year finishing the week at 19,784.   Alas, the negative implications of the Sun-Saturn aspect did not play out as expected as lawmakers in Washington did manage to come to an agreement.  While the deal was very much a minimal sort of agreement that did nothing to address the US fiscal sustainability, it was enough to satisfy markets as the worst effects of the fiscal cliff were averted for the time being.   As expected, the late week Mars-Jupiter aspect did appear to magnify the price moves as I thought it might, although these were very much in a positive direction.

It seems clear that the bullish influence of Jupiter is dominant now as it approaches its aspect with Uranus and its direct station on 30 January.   Bearish Saturn is still in close aspect with Pluto but this is a slower moving and less prominent influence.   The Saturn aspect began in December and will likely continue into March and thus has a wider window of manifestation.  The Jupiter aspect will be shorter lived and suggests there could be more positive energy to come in January. 

President Barack Obama is certainly benefiting from this positive Jupiter energy as the Great Benefic approaches a fairly close conjunction with his Moon at 10 Taurus.   Obama was widely seen as the winner in the fiscal cliff negotiations, even if there was no grand bargain that solved all of America's fiscal woes.  However, once Jupiter stations at 12 Taurus and begins to move forward again, Obama may encounter more difficulties.  We can see that Saturn may have more of a say in his chart in February as it stations retrograde in fairly close square aspect to his Sun.   The period around 7 February stands out as one possible trouble spot as Mars will conjoin Neptune and Mercury in the sky and form a tense looking square aspect with Obama's Moon.  This looks like a time of conflict and possible deception or confusion.  While this may be related to any number of issues, it is no secret that the Republicans are planning to put up a bigger fight with the debt ceiling debate that is due in February.  Republicans will demand more spending cuts in order to balance the books, while Obama and the Democrats will be reluctant to do so for fear of weakening the economy.

Saturn is due to turn retrograde on 16 February so Obama's fortunes may begin to improve after that date since Saturn will begin to move away from its aspect to the Sun.  On balance, February looks like it will be more challenging to Obama and this may reflect political tensions with the GOP over the budget.   While it is difficult to say if these tensions will have implications for financial markets, it is nonetheless worthwhile to keep them in mind. 

The transit picture this week is dominated by a Mars-Saturn aspect that is exact on Monday.   This is not a classic square aspect by Vedic reckoning, but it may still correlate with some heightened anxieties and may thus signal some market weakness.   Venus appears to be strengthening later in the week so that may increase the chances for some gains at that time.