Markets disappointed by Fed's extension of Operation Twist

Stocks generally moved modestly lower last week as the Fed disappointed some investors by extending Operation Twist. In New York, the Dow lost less than 1% closing at 12,644 while the S&P 500 finished at 1335.  In Mumbai, Indian stocks were mostly flat as favourable cues out of Europe shored up sentiment after the RBI decided to leave rates unchanged.  The Sensex ended the week 23 points to the good finishing at 16,972 while the Nifty closed at 5146. 

While I thought we might have seen a little more downside on the strength of the two Saturn aspects in play, the week unfolded more or less as expected.  I thought the early week Venus aspect could reflect a relative calm after the Greek election result and that is essentially what happened.  While the post-election relief rally quickly fizzled, at least the doom and gloom scenario of a anti-bailout Syriza win did not come to pass. I thought that the downside was more likely to arrive after the Wednesday Fed meeting and indeed the market sold off after Bernanke chose the more conservative option of Operation Twist instead of QE3.   This coincided nicely with the bearish Mercury-Saturn aspect and we got a big decline on Thursday with gold and oil also participating.

Europe remains the focus of the financial world this week as its leaders will meet in summit on Thursday and Friday.  Opinion is divided over whether they will  be able to deliver fresh solutions to the debt crisis, or even if the market needs them to do so.  Few are expecting a comprehensive program to emerge from the meeting, but the markets would like to see something tangible that goes beyond the usual boost in the size of the ESM and EFSF bailout plans.  It is fascinating to see how the current financial crisis is reflected in the planetary geometry.  Bearish Saturn is about to station and return to normal forward motion while disruptive Uranus makes its exact square aspects with power-hungry Pluto this weekend.  These are clearly troubled times in the financial world and the planets are echoing that reality.  Even more interesting is how the current crisis bears a resemblance to the European banking crisis of 1931.  At that time, there was a similar crisis of excess debt that bankrupted many banks in Europe and around the world.  Bank runs were common in 1931 as Austrian and Germany banks became insolvent in the face of an ever deepening depression.  It is not coincidental that we see some of the same planetary aspects then as we do now.  In 1931, there was also a rare Uranus-Pluto square aspect in play.  This wasn't quite exact yet, but it was still within just one degree.  It is worth pointing out that this Uranus-Pluto square aspect occurs only once every 70-80 years and the last time is happened was 1931-1933.  The planetary picture in the early 1930s was considerably darkened by the aspect from Saturn that formed a t-square with Uranus-Pluto.  Saturn is less prominent this time around as we can only point to a weaker 8th harmonic aspect, but it is still there.  This is perhaps one reason why the crisis so far has not been as bad as the 1930s. Of course, the Uranus-Pluto square lasts a long time so it will be in effect until 2014.

Transits for 1 August 1931

This week could bring some important new developments.  The Uranus-Pluto square is exact on Sunday and may be activated the Sun's transit on Friday the 29th.  This will form a very tense t-square aspect and could release some of that disruptive and disorderly Uranus energy. Since this happens on the same day that the EU summit is wrapping up, it is tempting to think about possible scenarios that could correspond to the symbolism of this aspect.  Since it does look tense, this would tend to support the view that the EU does not solve its problems this week.  Perhaps this means that pro-austerity Merkel holds out against all the calls by Hollande, the IMF and the ECB to stimulate the European economy.   And yet since these aspects are so close to exact, it also seems plausible that this week will bring some kind of resolution.  The markets may react negatively at first, but there is some reason to expect at least a temporary solution to come forth.  Before Friday's t-square, Saturn turns direct on Monday while in a very tight and potentially negative aspect with Venus.  For its part, Venus also turns direct on Wednesday, so this is another reason to be extra cautious here.  Planetary stations generally represent increases in energy which can accompany major developments and adjustments.  They are also partially correlated with reversals in market direction.

 Transits for Friday 29 June 2012 9.30 a.m. New York

Greek election pushes Europe to the brink

The Eurozone debt crisis has reached its latest climax as Greece prepares to vote in an pivotal election on Sunday.  Historian Niall Ferguson is calling it the financial equivalent of the Cuban Missle Crisis.  A win by the leftist Syriza party could generate dire consequences for the Eurozone and the world's financial system.  Syriza has vowed to reject the austere EU bailout plan that was agreed upon last year.  If the bailout package was abandoned,  the EU's loans to Greece would soon end and the country would default on its debt in a matter of weeks. This would likely force several large European banks into insolvency since they are larger holders of Greek debt.  It would also hasten the departure of Greece from the Eurozone.  The most recent polls show Syriza in a tight race with the right of center and pro-bailout New Democracy party.  A win by New Democracy would be seen as positive for the Eurozone and would be cheered by financial markets.

This kind of high drama is precisely the sort of thing we were expecting here in June as a number of major planetary patterns are reaching their maximum intensity.  As I have noted previously, June stood out as a potentially tumultuous time because of the simultaneous occurrence of two fairly rare events.  First, there is a square aspect between Uranus and Pluto.   These distant planets are rarely in aspect with each other but when they do, big things happen.  Both planets are symbolically associated with change, albeit different types. Uranus tends to reflect situations of sudden and radical change which seek to establish independence and novelty.  It is seen as a planet of revolution.  Pluto's change is no less profound, but tends to change more deliberately and thoroughly through the exercise of power and manipulation.  When these two planets combine their energies, it can correspond with periods of major social upheaval.  The last time these two planets interacted was in the mid-1960s when society was undergoing a major social and cultural revolution.  It is worth noting that that was a conjunction.  The last time there was a Uranus-Pluto square aspect in the sky was in the early 1930s during the depth of the Great Depression and the rise of fascism and the welfare state.  The square aspect is seen as more difficult and disruptive than the conjunction so we need to be mindful of the possibility of some serious developments during the next two to three years.  Due to the slow velocity and retrograde motion of these planets, this aspect will be in effect until approximately 2015.  From now until then, there will be three exact aspects, the first of which occurs next week on 24 June.  

The second rare planetary pattern upcoming is a Saturn direct station on 25 June (yes, just a day after the Uranus-Pluto square!) while in a close 135 degree aspect with Venus.  Saturn is best understood as the planet of pessimism and caution.  Its station marks the end of its four-month long retrograde cycle as it reverses direction from backwards to forwards.  Saturn is therefore more powerful at this time and has more ability to do harm and weaken confidence.  To top it all off, Venus itself will end its retrograde cycle on Wednesday the 27th and this will also be an additional source of energy. 

So the planets are very much reflecting the intense and historic nature of the events on Earth at the moment as the world may be teetering on the brink of another financial disruption that could set off a chain reaction with unpredictable consequences.  Of course, we want to know what the outcome will be to all this intense build-up of energy.  Will we return to a state of relative calm in the aftermath of the Greek election or will the situation worsen after a negative result?  To state the obvious, there is no clear scientific way to interpret the impact of planetary patterns.  Have the negative effects of the current aspects already manifested in the form of uncertainty and the recent weakness in the Euro and the markets?  Or are more negative manifestations likely in the near term?  It's hard to say for sure, but my sense is that these aspects should coincide with more difficult situations for Europe and the financial markets in the coming days.  Given the nature of the planets involved in these aspects, there is a rising possibility for more serious outcomes.

Stocks rose last week as the IMF promised a coordinated central bank intervention in the markets in the event of an unwelcome result in the Greek election.   In New York, the Dow was higher by more than 1% closing at 12,767 while the S&P 500 finished at 1342.  Indian stocks also rose on hopes of an RBI rate cut on 18 June.  The Sensex rose more than 200 point closing at 16,949 while the Nifty ended the week at 5139.  While I was somewhat ambivalent, this bullish outcome was not surprising as I thought the presence of the favourable Mercury-Venus aspect could well push stocks higher overall. 

This week appears to have Saturn in the driver's seat as it forms aspects with Mars and Mercury. Saturn aspects are usually bad news for markets since it tends to reflect caution and disappointment.  The Mars-Saturn aspect is exact on Monday but since it is a minor aspect it may be less damaging.  More troubling is the Mercury-Saturn square aspect on Wednesday and Thursday.  This is a bearish influence can could coincide with some significant disappointment.  Given the Fed meeting on Wednesday, there is a greater chance that investors will be disappointed in what Bernanke has to say.  Perhaps he will not be announcing any QE3 or an extension of Operation Twist.   The early week also features a fairly nice looking configuration of bullish Venus with Uranus and Pluto.  That is one astrological reason why we may not see a huge sell-off on Monday and the possibility for a status quo result in Greece.  At the same time, it is important to note that if the election is close, it may be several days before we know who will be leading the government as the parties attempt to cobble together a coalition.

Stocks rise on hopes for Spanish bailout

Stocks enjoyed their best week of 2012 on indications that some kind of solution could be found to the Spanish banking crisis.  In New York, the Dow climbed more than 3% closing at 12,554 while the S&P 500 finished the week at 1325.  Indian markets fared even better as the Sensex rose more than 4% closing at 16,718 while the Nifty ended the week at 5068.  As expected, most of the gains occurred midweek around the Sun-Venus conjunction and the Mercury-Jupiter aspect.   Monday's tense Mars-Venus aspect coincided with some significant bearishness, although markets generally rebounded before the close.

Spain's banking crisis reached a critical point last week as talks are now underway for an EU bailout.  The IMF estimates that Spanish banks may need up to €40 Billion to cover their loan losses. While bond yields have backed away from the precipice, they remain elevated above 6% reflecting their significant credit risk.  The enormity of the European financial crisis cannot be underestimated as it threatens to bring down the global economy. President Obama's re-election chances are closely affected by the crisis since the state of the US economy is the central issue in the upcoming November vote.  As Europe goes, so goes the US.  Not surprisingly, Obama encouraged European officials to do whatever was necessary to prevent the crisis from getting out of hand.  

Common sense would suggest that a solution will be forthcoming very soon, and the market rally last week reflects this reasonable expectation.  No matter how divergent the interests of the key players, the seriousness of the problem should compel policymakers to arrive a workable plan.  Failure to do so could spark a Lehman-style panic that we saw during the meltdown in 2008.  But not all solutions are created equal, so there could be a range of market reactions to whatever the final agreement will be.  The EU has faced similar crises in the past two years and have always managed to come up with something, although these tended to be temporary solutions that only postponed the inevitable day of reckoning.  We may well get another postponement type of package this time around. 

The trouble with all these sensible expectations is that they do not fit with the planetary picture at the moment.  Basically, the planets don't look good right here so I am expecting some kind of disappointment or surprise to throw a wrench into all those best EU intentions and economic rationality.  It could be that the bailout package is underwhelming and the markets decline in reaction.  Or it could be that the bailout is welcomed by all parties, but then Greek voters elect an anti-austerity government on 17 June.  Greek remains the wild card here since an anti-austerity vote would force the EU to implement radical firewall measures to prevent the banking crisis from deepening.  With Saturn and Venus due to station in the last week of June, I would say the markets will have to run the gauntlet in the aftermath of the Greek election.  And with the disruptive Uranus-Pluto square in the mix, there is the potential for some fundamental changes to the financial system.  As we know, nothing is certain in this world, much less astrology, but the planets here are suggesting a situation of rising risk.

We will get a taste of the effects of the Uranus-Pluto square early this week as Mercury forms an alignment with that pairing on Monday.  This t-square pattern is usually negative. The Sun and Saturn also form an aspect in the early week which could be problematic, especially for gold.  Perhaps gains are more likely midweek near the Mercury-Venus aspect, although this does not look particularly strong. Oil may receive a boost this week from the transit of the Moon in Pisces.  Even if the market ends higher this week, it may well be temporary.

 Transits for Monday 11 June 2012 9.30 a.m New York

Recession on the way? US jobs report disappoints

The world economy took a turn for the worse last week as signs of a slowdown threatened to halt the recovery in its tracks.   India's GDP growth of 5.3% in the first quarter was the lowest in a decade, while the US economy created only 69,000 new jobs in May, falling far short of expectations. With no solution to the Eurozone crisis in sight, fear is on the rise here as US Treasury yields hit record lows with the 10-year note now below 1.5%.  Things have got so bad that investors are willing to forgo any return in favour of safety as yields are now below the level of inflation. 

Fear?  Slowdown? Threat of a new recession?  Let me guess -- Saturn!  As the planet that symbolizes the glass half-empty, Saturn is usually highlighted in some way during times such as these when optimism is in short supply.  Indeed, Saturn's strength has been increasingly over the past several weeks as it formed a tight aspect with stationing Venus just as it entered sidereal Virgo in mid-May.  This kind of clear Saturn aspect activity is frequently correlated with negative economic outlooks and falling stock markets.  Saturn's penchant for gloom and doom was even more likely to strike a chord at the current time because there was no offsetting positive influence from Jupiter. 

Saturn looks likely to remain dominant over Jupiter for a while longer as it approaches its direct station on 25 June. At that time, Saturn will conclude its four-month long retrograde cycle at 28 degrees of Virgo and resume its normal forward motion.  Saturn stations are often times of heightened anxiety, especially if the station occurs in aspect with another planet.  This is very much the case here as it will form a close conjunction in the Ashtamsha varga chart (8th harmonic).  In Western astrological terms, this is a 135 degree aspect.  Interestingly, Venus will also end its retrograde cycle just two days later.  This will likely greatly increase the prominence of Saturn and therefore there will be additional risk for more bad news and more declines in the stock market.  If that weren't enough, the first square aspect between Uranus (change, eccentricity) and Pluto (power, restructuring) occurs in the same week and should ratchet up the risk level.  All this rare planetary interplay could produce some major developments, both financially and geopolitically.  It might even coincide with a significant new policy that addresses the ongoing Eurozone crisis, such as Eurobonds or some functional equivalent that underwrites all sovereign debt. It can't come fast enough to deal with Spain whose 10-year bond yields have now crept up to 6.7% -- almost to that all-important threshold of solvency at 7%.  Unlike Greece, however, Spain may be too big to bailout. Some commentators are now openly considering the possibility that Spain could leave the Euro and return to the peseta.

Given all the gloomy news last week, investors bailed out of stocks and most risky assets and ploughed their money into treasuries, gold and the US Dollar.  In New York, the Dow lost almost 2% closing at 12,118 while the S&P 500 finished at 1278.  The sell-off wiped out all the gains of 2012 as the pullback morphed into something more like a correction.  Stocks in Mumbai also fell as FII outflows underscored the difficult investment environment in India.  The Sensex lost 2% closing at 15,965 while the Nifty ended the week at 4841.  This negative outcome was broadly in keeping with my generally Saturnian expectations here, although the extent of Friday's decline was surprising given the apparently favourable Mercury-Venus conjunction.  Previous aspects played out more according to script as the market did climb early in the week on Tuesday's Moon-Venus aspect and also retreated in time for the midweek Mercury-Mars aspect.

This week looks more mixed with the early week looking a little tense on Monday's Venus-Mars square. Actually, this is part of a larger alignment of Sun, Venus and Mars that does not look supportive of confidence. All three planets are fairly close together so that may complicate how the energy is expressed.  If the aspects do manifest sequentially, then Monday could well be bearish with some relief on the Venus-Sun conjunction on Tuesday.  This is not high probability though given the presence of the disruptive Mars aspect in the mix. The midweek looks better for a rebound as Mercury is in aspect with Jupiter. Interestingly, this may coincide quite closely with the scheduled meeting of the ECB on Wednesday.  Perhaps they will announce something that the market can cheer.  Friday's Sun-Mars aspect looks less positive, however.

The Facebook IPO Fiasco

The long-awaited and much-hyped Facebook IPO has turned into something of a fiasco.  Revelations have emerged about possible insider malfeasance from the share underwriter Morgan Stanley and their last-minute revisions to the financial outlook of Facebook which left some main street investors out of luck and holding some very expensive shares.  Lawsuits have been filed so the matter will be taken up by the courts although the market is rendering some early judgment as the stock price has fallen from its initial $38 to under $30. 

My original assessment of Facebook was based on the horoscope of the IPO and so far that has been wide of the mark.  One of the difficulties in analyzing first trade charts is that there is very little information to work with in the initial stages.  It's a bit like trying to make predictions for a new-born baby in the first days and weeks of life.  Transits may be a part of the overall equation, but the natal chart is still very strong and therefore its aspects and placements may be disproportionately resonating through the first phase of life. This may also be the case with the Facebook IPO horoscope.  It seems as if some of those difficult natal patterns -- especially the very close Venus-Saturn aspect --  are damaging the share price in these initial stages regardless of some favourable Jupiter transits that may be in play.

While useful, the IPO horoscope would not necessarily show the emerging controversy surrounding Facebook and insider trading.  For that, it may be useful to examine an older and more established horoscope for Facebook, namely the incorporation chart of 29 July 2004.  Although we don't know the exact time that Facebook was incorporated, this chart nonetheless reveals some interesting  perspectives on the public offering of 18 May.   Amazingly, we see Venus and Saturn front and center once again.  Natal Venus (28 Taurus ) was in a close aspect to transiting Saturn at the time of the IPO.  As I have noted previously, the Venus-Saturn combination is a perfect illustration of the desire to harness or adapt (Saturn) friendship (Venus) for instrumental or financial ends.  A Venus-Saturn combination is therefore a nice planetary picture for an IPO of a company that is "selling" its users' friendships to advertisers.

We can see that transiting Venus was also just a stone's throw away in the first degree of Gemini so it had the effect of highlighting the natal Venus placement.  Although the fifth house aspect is not a full strength one according to Vedic aspecting rules, the degreewise aspect is so tight, that even a partial strength trine aspect is going to have some negative effects.  The bad news is that Saturn is moving slowly here ahead of its direct station on 25 June.  It will station in an exact trine aspect to Venus.  Saturn's direct station at 28 Virgo will also be in tight minor aspect to Mars (28 Cancer) so this is another reason for Facebook's troubles at this time.  A little bit of Saturn can be a good thing, but this extended transit around its station produces too much Saturnian energy and is not favourable.   And if we take the Sagittarius Moon as the 1st house (Chandra Lagna), then we can see that Saturn will be stationing in the 10th house in Virgo.  The 10th house represents public acclaim and achievement, so the Saturn influence here is suggestive of public difficulty and damage to its status.

We can also see that Facebook would likely be in the news now due to the simultaneous transits to the Sun by Pluto and Uranus.  The Sun represents public projection and leadership and when it is activated by transits from such distant, slow moving planets, the chances of some kind of higher profile is likely.  Facebook has definitely been all over the news in the past month, both in the run-up to the IPO and then the scandal ridden aftermath. 

One key reason why the IPO ended in scandal and recrimination is due to the Neptune influence on this chart.  Neptune is in opposition aspect to Mercury, the planet of trading and communication.  Since Neptune symbolizes deceit and distortions when in hard aspect, this Neptune-Mercury aspect is a classic signature for an event that involves deception and confusion.  Underwriter Morgan Stanley took the unprecedented step of reducing its growth estimates to insider clients just hours before the IPO which left small investors holding the bag.   The Nasdaq also bungled the opening as it couldn't handle the trading volume but refused to admit its limitations.  The confusion was so pronounced that some traders did not know if their trades had been executed or not for almost a week after the 18 May launch.  The whole situation created an atmosphere of distrust and discord between Wall Street and the investing public.  The bad news here is that Neptune will remain opposite Mercury for the rest of 2012 and well into 2013.  This could mean that Facebook will have transparency issues around its financial dealings so the whiff of scandal may linger for some time to come.

Even with the unknown time, the incorporation chart is likely running the Venus dasha.  Using the noon default time, the Venus dasha was probably in effect at the time of incorporation and is still running now.  Venus is strong in this chart by virtue of its placement in its own sign of Taurus.  Venus is also further strengthened by the placement of Jupiter in its nakshatra of Purva Phalguni.  Clearly, Facebook has been a phenomenally successful company.  However, Pluto's close opposition to Pluto hints at the kind of scenario that erupted around the IPO.  Pluto is the planet of power and manipulation and is associated with large corporations.  Its opposition aspect can mean that the exercising of power and behind the scenes manipulation plays a stronger role in daily affairs, especially when planets are afflicted by transits.   Given Saturn extended aspect with Venus here, it is quite likely that this darker Plutonian side of the Facebook incorporation chart is playing out. 

I would therefore expect the intense financial scrutiny on Facebook to continue at least until Saturn turns direct on 25 June.  Once it begins to move away from its aspect with Venus, there may be more clarity brought to this situation.  It also suggests that Facebook's share price may stand a better chance of rebounding once Saturn moves away.  While there is only an indirect relationship between the incorporation chart and the share price, there should nonetheless be some correlation there.  It does suggest, however, that Facebook may have some tough times for the next month until Saturn goes direct.  But the  ongoing influence of Neptune into 2013 may mean that questions about transparency will act as a drag on share price for a while yet.

Europe debates as Greece hangs by a thread

One of capitalism's harsher dictums is that "losers have to lose."   The market decides which firms will be successful and which will go under based on the criteria of profitability alone.   Over time, this leads to a more efficient allocation of productive resources and increased wealth for the population as a whole.  Well, that is the theory at least.  Things get a lot more complex when nation states are involved, however.  This is the stark choice facing European leaders these days as they try to come to terms with an ongoing economic crisis that shows no signs of easing.  Greece has been a perennial "loser" in this respect but the EU has sought various ways to deny or postpone its exit from the Eurozone.  Germany's Angela Merkel has been a stalwart defender of fiscal responsibility and austerity as the best recipe for recovery.  She would appear to subscribe to the losers must lose approach as Greek bond holders must be forced to take losses and the Greek people must lose a portion of their national income before stability returns.  France's newly-elected Francois Hollande is more growth-oriented and seeks to add more sovereign debt in the form of stimulus measures as a way out of the crisis.  Not surprisingly, the more left-leaning Hollande is perhaps less enamoured with the necessity of losers in capitalism.

While the gravity of the crisis has made Merkel more open to the possibility of new emergency measures to prop up the banking sector, she is still resisting the introduction of Eurobonds which would damage Germany's credit rating, force up its interest rates and produce more inflation.  Such deliberately inflationary policies are a central feature in the Keynesian approach, which insist that falling economic growth requires injections of borrowed government money to kick start spending and restore flagging consumer confidence.  In measured amounts, it's quite a sensible policy.  An uncontrolled deflationary spiral where prices are falling is a worst case scenario that most economists agree should be avoided at all costs.  But how much inflation is acceptable before it starts to assume a more destructive role in the economy? And doesn't inflation maintain inefficient and wasteful producers at a time when the economy can least afford to carry them?  For now, the debate rages on between the adherents of free market austerity and debt reduction on one hand and Keynesian school of stimulus and controlled inflation on the other. 

In astrological terms, the current crisis reflects the approach of a rare 90 degree square aspect between Uranus and Pluto.  Uranus is said to represent independence, freedom and novelty, while Pluto symbolizes power, manipulation and large organizations.  As I have noted previously, the combination of these two planets suggests a disruptive period of fundamental change and re-organization is likely to occur over the next few years.  These two slow moving planets only make major aspects once every 30 years or so, and the tense square aspect last occurred in the 1930s when the world was undergoing major upheavals on a number of fronts.  The inability of elites to come to a consensus or to find a solution reflects the intractability of this aspect.  While we can expect some resolution and progress to come out of this aspect by, say, 2015, the process is likely to generate a large amount of dislocation.   Some kind of rupture with the past is also more likely under this aspect, although it usually occurs because the old approaches no longer work in the present circumstance.  This slow moving aspect is likely in focus at the moment because of Saturn's predominance in the sky.  The ringed planet of austerity and caution is approaching its direct station on June 25.  Saturn's energy is more likely to increase around that time, so it seems unlikely that any workable solution to the European economic crisis will arrive anytime soon.  In fact, things may well get worse before they get better.  That is perhaps one of Saturn's credos, since it reflects the fundamental notion of progress and learning through pain and loss.   No pain, no gain.  In that sense, Saturn's preoccupation with loss makes it just as important to understanding the workings of capitalism as Jupiter's penchant for risk, optimism and investment for the future.  Jupiter and Saturn are two sides to the same coin, just as notions of profit and loss comprise the larger whole that is necessary for a productive economy.

Stocks rebounded last week as European leaders discussed new measures that would help stabilize the fragile banking sector in the face of a possible Greek exit.  The Dow climbed 1% closing at 12,454 while the S&P 500 finished the week at 1317.  Indian stocks staged a modest recovery as the RBI intervention to support the rupee improved sentiment after hitting a record low midweek.  The Sensex edged higher by 1% closing at 16,217 while the Nifty ended the week at 4920.   The bullish outcome was largely in keeping with expectations as the early week conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter provided a lift for most asset classes. 

This week is more of a mixed bag.  There is an absence of unequivocal aspects here that make forecasting a little more random than it normally is.  Monday's Mercury-Saturn aspect looks fairly difficult so that could weigh on Asian and European markets.  Tuesday's Moon-Venus pattern offers some hope for a rebound but that seems tenuous at best.  Wednesday and Thursday may face some headwinds on the Mercury-Mars aspect.  Friday's Mercury-Venus conjunction should be bullish, although the pairing may only be close enough to influence trading in Europe and the US.

 Transits for Wednesday 30 May 2012 9.30 a.m. New York

Greece trumps Facebook; G8 meets to avert crisis

Greece is the problem that won't go away.  G-8 leaders are meeting in Camp David this weekend to attempt to find some kind lasting solution for the Eurozone and its most wastrel member.  It all seems more like theater than anything else as there remain sharp policy divisions over the right way forward.  Obama and the newly-minted French President Hollande favour more stimulus while Merkel and Cameron believe that more austerity is necessary.  No matter which side prevails, there will likely be some attempt to guarantee Greek sovereign debt perhaps through another intervention by the ECB. Recent austerity measures appear to be making the problem worse in the short run as Greece and Spain slip deeper into recession.  It is unclear if Germany can agree to more politically unpopular stimulus measures to prop up their bankrupt Greek neighbours.  More financial analysts are now openly assessing the implications of Greece leaving the Eurozone since managing a sovereign currency may be the only way that Greece can again become competitive on its own terms.

The ongoing political and economic uncertainty is a very appropriate reflection of the current predominance of Saturn.  As I have noted in past weeks, May was likely to be problematic due to the entry of Saturn into sidereal Virgo.  It has been moving very slowly in past days at a rate of just 3 arc minutes per day and finally entered Virgo on Friday.  It's worth noting that I am referring to the sidereal sign of Virgo rather than the more commonly used Western tropical sign of Virgo.  The star-based sidereal zodiac widely used in India is offset 24 degrees from the seasonally-determined tropical zodiac so this particular measurement only appears if one follows this different system.  As planets change signs, there is often stronger symbolic correlations in consciousness and behaviour on Earth according to the nature of the planet.  Saturn is the planet of caution, pessimism, and austerity so it is not surprising that we should be seeing a gloomier outlook at the present time with regards to Greece, the Eurozone and a slowdown in the world economy. 

But now that Saturn is more safely ensconced in Virgo, one would be tempted to think that calmer waters are ahead.  To be sure, the amount of negative Saturn energy is likely waning in the near term.  And yet there is more cause for concern down the road.  Saturn is slowing down here in the final stages of its retrograde cycle, which is due to conclude on 25 June when it returns to its normal forward motion.  Slow moving planets tend to increase their influence and Merkollande do not want Saturn to be too influential.  To make matters worse, Saturn will station at 28 Virgo, just two degrees from the cusp of Libra.  A placement near the cusp of a sign is more unstable and can create difficult situations.  It also means that when Saturn moves forward again, it will cross over this sign cusp and tend to depress markets all over again.  This final sign change will occur on 2 August.  The astrological elephant in the room is the upcoming Uranus-Pluto square aspect which is exact on 24 June.  This will be the first of three such exact square aspects of these two transformative planets over the next year or two.  There is an enormous amount of energy associated with this aspect, but it somewhat unclear just when its effects will manifest.  Given the near simultaneous Saturn direct station at that time, there is good reason to assume a cautious stance at this time.  While by no means probable, a black swan-type event in nonetheless more likely at that time than it otherwise would be. 

Despite all the hype around the Facebook IPO, stocks continued to struggle last week as fears of an disruptive "Grexit" from the Eurozone weighed on sentiment.  The Dow lost 4% closing at 12,369 while the S&P finished the week at 1295.  Indian markets fared somewhat better although the Sensex still tumbled 1% to 16,152 as the Nifty ended the week at 4891.  This bearish outcome was in keeping with expectations as I thought that the shadow of Saturn would darken the mood for much of the week.  Interestingly, the potential bright spots did appear to coincide with some limited gains.  The Venus retrograde station occurred on Tuesday, just as the Indian markets some modest gains.  Jupiter's entry into Taurus (the bull) on Thursday also coincided with more positive sentiment across the board as stocks in Mumbai rose and commodities such as gold and oil also put in a winning session.

This week looks somewhat more upbeat, mostly due to Tuesday's Mercury-Jupiter conjunction.  This is a fairly reliable bullish influence which would tend to suggest some early week gains, even if the conjunction comes so soon after Sunday's solar eclipse. The late week is perhaps unpredictable given Friday's Sun-Ketu conjunction. This is likely to be detrimental for gold in particular although its negative effects could spill into stocks also.  So there is some astrological justification for a bounce this week.