Democrats one step closer to impeaching Trump

(23 September 2019)  It never ends.   President Trump has come under renewed scrutiny over the weekend for apparently withholding military aid to Ukraine in exchange for damaging information on the family of potential Democratic nominee Joe Biden.  If there is clear evidence that Trump sought the help of a foreign power to gain advantage over a political rival, moderate Democrats in the House of Representatives would be more willing to vote to impeach. 

While calls for impeachment have been growing over the past year, House Leader Nancy Pelosi has resisted it due to the vulnerability of some moderates in the 2020 election.  The Ukrainian-Biden affair is shifting the odds towards impeachment, however, as this is a more blatant "high crime and misdemeanor".  The House can impeach with a simple majority of 218 out of 435 seats and the Democrats currently control 235 seats. 

The Senate would then still have to publicly try the president as per the requirements of a proper criminal trial.  Given the high level of partisanship in Congress, it is very unlikely that the GOP-controlled Senate would vote to confirm Trump's impeachment since two-thirds, or 67 votes would be necessary. 

As I have noted previously, Trump's fortunes are under considerable stress throughout much of 2019.  He entered the less positive Jupiter-Saturn dasha period in November 2018 right around the time the GOP lost control of the House in the midterm elections.  It was a sharp rebuke to his authority.  Jupiter-Saturn will continue through to June 2021 so will encompass the upcoming election campaign.  It's a not a fatal weakness but it's definitely not a plus in terms of his re-elections chances.

Also Trump was subject to a number of very difficult transits this year.  Back in April, transiting Saturn stationed in a near-exact square aspect to his Jupiter (24 Virgo).  This may have contributed to many negative outcomes and created a sense of being blocked or restrained.  Since stationing direct last week, Saturn is again moving forward and will exactly square his Jupiter in early December. 

More immediately, Mars (27 Leo) is exactly squaring his Ketu-Moon conjunction at 27-28 Scorpio in recent days.  This is a nasty transit for anyone as it increases conflict and frustration, all the more so given the role of Ketu as a kind of cosmic amplifier. This Mars transit was the catalyst for the whole affair and the growing calls for impeachment.

So the question is: will the House finally move to impeach Trump?  In previous posts, I thought the summer was a likely time window for impeachment to take place.  I was clearly wrong about that.  And now that fall has begun I wonder if this is just more Democrat outrage that won't accomplish anything.

And yet, it's clear there are more bad transits ahead for Trump in the coming weeks and months. After Saturn squares up against his Jupiter in early December, it will oppose his Venus-Saturn conjunction in early Cancer in January and February.  This is arguably worse than anything he faced in 2019.  Saturn-to-Venus not only symbolizes troubles from females (Pelosi?) but Venus also rules his 10th house of career and status.  If there is an impeachment proceeding, Venus would likely be afflicted in some way since his status as president would be called into question.  The Saturn opposition to Venus-Saturn is made more potent since Pluto will be there also.  Pluto represents exercises of power and coercion, so that is a very plausible transit set up for impeachment.  And in late January and early February, irascible Mars is conjunct Moon-Ketu for good measure.

But if this Jan-Feb scenario plays out, it would seem unlikely that the question of impeachment could remain unanswered hanging in the air for another three months.  Perhaps that may reflect the unwillingness of the White House to hand over the transcript of the intelligence whistleblower which results in a lengthy delay before the House can even consider the evidence.  Or it could mean that formal proceedings may begin fairly soon, such as in late October (e.g. Mars squares Saturn/Ketu on Oct 25), but only culminate in a decisive vote during the Jan-Feb period. 

But these are only more questions than answers unfortunately.  Nonetheless, it seems the impeachment scenario isn't over yet.



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks tracked sideways last week as the Fed delivered its widely-anticipated cut of 25 basis points.  While the cut was seen in positive terms by the market, there was some disappointment that the Fed board is split over the prospects of future cuts.  Europe and China were somewhat bearish, however, as growth expectations fell on more negative economic data.  Germany may well be in a recession already.  India was one bright spot as the corporate tax cut pushed shares sharply higher on Friday and Monday (today).

The planets hinted at a more cautious outcome generally as some of the planetary values dipped below 50 into the midweek period and the Mars-Pluto alignment suggested pessimism. 

This week's planets are quite mixed.  Venus aligns with bearish Saturn into midweek, just as Mars enters the sign of Virgo.  These are both somewhat negative influences.  On the plus side, Mercury aligns with Jupiter on Monday and Tuesday while Venus aligns with Jupiter on Friday.  There is some downside risk here that will likely manifest at some point but whether it offsets any gains is harder to say. 

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks fall after Saudi oil attack; oil rises 12%

(16 September 2019)  Stock markets ended Monday modestly negative after a sudden drone attack on Saudi oil facilities.  US stocks fell about 0.5% while bonds, gold and, of course, oil rallied on the news of the supply interruption.  While it is unclear who was responsible for the attack, the US is already pointing fingers at Iran or its Yemeni allies.  Retaliation from the US or Saudi Arabia has not yet occurred, but the situation is dangerously uncertain.  Moreover, the attack reveals a major vulnerability in Saudi oil production going forward.

The timing of the attack comes at an awkward time as stocks are within 1% of their all-time high and investors await the latest statement on interest rates from the Fed on Wednesday.  In other words, it may become harder to stocks to move to new highs given this unwelcome geopolitical development.  The Federal Reserve may also have to reconsider its default position of cutting rates in light of this possible inflationary spike in oil prices. 

Here are a couple of charts worth considering.  First, the NYSE horoscope suggests declines were somewhat more likely today and indeed, this week generally as Mars approaches its natal position at 27 degrees of Leo.  Mars-to-Mars transits are often stressful and frequently coincide with declines in stocks.  Mars will remain in conjunction with its natal position for the rest of the week, including the Fed meeting.  This increases the probability of more declines this week. 

We can also note that the ongoing Saturn-Ketu conjunction still looms large in the chart.  Saturn ends its retrograde cycle on Wednesday (FOMC day!) and will resume its normal forward motion.  As I have previously written, the Saturn-Ketu conjunction bears close attention as it is frequently associated with falling markets.  This year's Saturn-Ketu conjunction was unusual in that both Saturn and Ketu were moving backwards (retrograde) in tandem for several months.  This did not produce a uniformly bearish effect, however.  Asian markets (China, India) and many emerging markets were generally lower for the duration of the conjunction from April until now.  But the US and Europe were more positive, albeit with some choppiness. 

As it happened, the chart for Brent crude oil was looking somewhat bullish this week.  Jupiter and Neptune were aligned with the Ascendant, along with Mars and the all-important Moon.  This is a mostly positive pattern, especially given the inclusion of Jupiter.  The Mercury-Venus conjunction is aligned with natal Mercury this week so that was another potentially positive configuration.  I'm less convinced there will be more upside in the days to come, especially after the Fed meeting.  To be sure, the slow-moving Jupiter-Neptune influence is a fairly bullish influence but the Saturn-Ketu conjunction may be operating in the opposite direction. 


Weekly Market Forecast

The rest of the week may bring more downside, especially after the Fed statement on Wednesday.  One source of concerns is the midweek Mars-Pluto alignment.  This combination carries some downside risk, especially later in the week.  We should also note that both Mercury and Venus come under the full-strength square aspect of Saturn during the late week and into early next week.  This isn't always bearish, but it nonetheless skews the probabilities towards a negative outcome.

Ordering the various influences of each planet on a daily basis produces a speculative dot plot chart.  Here I am using the Vedic Shad Bala and Ashtakavarga charts as inspiration, rather than as a specific data source.  My own view of the respective planetary strengths is a composite of aspects, sign placements, and relative house rulerships.  The dip below 50 for several planets focuses on midweek and the Fed meeting. Let's see if Jay Powell will disappoint the markets once again.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Elizabeth Warren on the rise as Dems prepare for third debate

(9 September 2019) It's been a good summer for Democratic 2020 contender Elizabeth Warren.  The Democrats are due to meet in Houston on Thursday for their third debate as the field has narrowed to just (!) ten candidates.  Former VP and moderate Joe Biden still enjoys a 10-12 point lead in the polls at 29% but the progressive Warren has now moved up to second place to 18%, just ahead of Bernie Sanders at 17%.  Kamala Harris is well back at 7% along with Buttigieg (4%), Yang (3%) Booker (3%) and O'Rourke (2%).

Warren is increasingly seen as the most viable progressive option to Biden as Sanders has so far failed to grow his base of support.  While we don't know her time of birth, her chart cast for noon June 22, 1949 hints at why she has picked up momentum this summer.  The positioning of Saturn has been much better for her in the past two months.  In the spring, Saturn had stationed almost exactly opposite her Venus (25 Gemini).  This may have blocked the advancement of her candidacy as Venus symbolizes happiness, success and social contacts while Saturn translates into restrictions, limits and disappointments. 

But Saturn's retrograde cycle this summer has moved it away from its opposition with Venus so this is one reason why Warren may have found greater appeal in recent weeks.  Saturn (19 Sagittarius) is now well away from Venus so that bodes well for the next few weeks at least for Warren's campaign.  The nodes, Rahu and Ketu, have also moved away from exact alignments with Venus and the Moon (24 Aries).  Troublesome Rahu was exactly conjunct Venus in the spring but has also moved off and has allowed her Venus to better express her political appeal with less encumbrance.

As far as Thursday's debate goes, I would expect Warren to acquit herself quite well.  Her chart doesn't get much benefit from the Mercury-Venus conjunction at 3-4 Virgo that day, but it will benefit from the Sun-Pluto aspect as it aligns closely with her Venus and possibly her Moon, depending on her exact birth time.  The Sun-Pluto influence on Venus and the Moon could be translated as 'a feminine and pleasing expression of power and leadership'.  The Moon is in Libra on Thursday, however, and lines up against her Saturn and Mars in a non-harmonious way.  The debate may be a bit tense in that respect although I would not expect anything too damaging or dramatic. But overall, Warren should help her cause in the debate. 

However, the longer term outlook for her is less positive.  At the time of the primaries in spring 2020, Saturn will station conjunct her Jupiter (=blocked progress) while Rahu will conjoin her Sun (disruption to status/authority) and Ketu will align with her Saturn (undermining of principles).  In addition, she has some very nasty progressed retrograde stations (Saturn and Neptune) in March, right around the time of the big Super Tuesday primary.  The winning candidate has to do well in those in order to have a chance to be the nominee at the summer convention.  Without good results in March, it will be nearly impossible for her to win.  Overall, I think Warren is a longshot to defeat Biden. 

A quick look at Joe Biden's chart suggest he will also do well on Thursday.  The Mercury-Venus conjunction at 4 Virgo aligns closely with his Sun-Venus conjunction at 4-5 Scorpio while the transiting Sun sits atop the MC.  This is a good transit set up for looking dominant and being successful in the debate. If anything, Biden's performance may well be better than Warren's, at least in terms of political outcomes. There has been some recent questioning of Biden's fitness for the presidency due to his advanced age.  Perhaps a good debate performance will help to allay those concerns. 

And yet I think Biden may suffer some kind of setback in September and October as Rahu is exactly aspecting his 12th house Mars.  Mars also happens to be his minor dasha lord so that could amplify the importance of this Rahu transit.  Rahu-Mars transits can indicate intense conflict and may even involve violence or punishment. 

The 12th house is associated with places of isolation such as foreign countries so there is a risk of some kind of damaging story about his foreign contacts.  Illness and hospitalization also cannot be ruled out since Mars in the 12th has these traditional associations.  Early October may be a somewhat more likely time for this kind of development since transiting Mars will conjoin Neptune (illness, hidden sources of income) and aspect Biden's natal Moon in the 6th house (health, legal matters).



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks generally rose last week on renewed hopes for a US-China trade deal as well as a loosening of capital requirements for Chinese banks.  I thought we might have seen a bit more downside, however.  We did see an expected decline on Tuesday's Mercury-Mars-Sun conjunction and the subsequent rise broadly conformed with the bullish Venus-Neptune alignment.  The late week was more bullish than expected, however, as the negativity of the Sun-Saturn-Ketu alignment was more or less offset by the bullish Mercury-Jupiter pattern. 

This week leans bullish as Mercury aligns with Venus for much of the week.  To be sure, Venus enters sidereal Virgo on Tuesday so that is a red flag for possible declines over the coming four weeks for this transit.  But it may not have any immediate effect, especially since Mercury may act to shore up any weakness in Venus as it transits through its sign of debilitation.  The second half of the week may see rising downside risk as Mars aspects Jupiter.  This looks to be strongest on Thursday and Friday so bulls should practice caution.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

UK PM Boris Johnson issues Brexit ultimatum

(2 September 2019)  The long Brexit melodrama seems to have entered its final act.   Prime Minister Boris Johnson has issued an ultimatum to rebel Tory members to either support him or face a snap election.  Faced with the precarious economic prospect of a no-deal Brexit, a group of Conservative Party members want to block Johnson's risky do-or-die approach to final negotiations with the EU.  If the EU rebuffs him and Johnson fails to secure a new deal, the UK will crash out of the EU on October 31 with nothing at all.  Most economists have predicted some fairly dire consequences for the UK if this worst-case scenario comes to pass.

The ongoing political uncertainty comes as no surprise to students of astrology.  As I wrote back in March, the planets looked very unhelpful for a quick or decisive resolution to the Brexit crisis under then-Prime Minister Theresa May.  Indeed, I suggested that things could intensify in September when Saturn was due to station exactly conjunct the Sun in the UK horoscope (1 January 1801; 00.00).  And with Ketu (South Lunar Node) also involved in the conjunction, there was the possibility of loss or disruption involving the sitting government.  While the Conservatives are still in power, Theresa May is gone and Johnson is now PM.  That's classic Saturn in action. 

Well, here we are in September with retrograde Saturn bearing down on that Sun (19 Sagittarius).  Saturn (now at 20 Sagittarius) is basically conjunct although it will station and reverse direction on 18 September.  The negative effects of Saturn are likely to manifest for a few weeks after the station and seem likely to make the month of October also tense and difficult for the UK. 

There are a few possible scenarios to consider.  Will the rebel Tories manage to block the no-deal Brexit option?  And will Johnson then carry out his threat for a a snap election?  And if there is an election, will Johnson's Conservatives win?  And finally, will there be a Brexit on October 31, deal or no-deal?

To be honest, there are too many moving parts here for me to even begin to answer all of these questions.  In my March post, I wondered if there would be an election in September given the extent of affliction to the UK's Sun.  Afflictions to the Sun in a national horoscope often coincide with the loss of power of a ruling party.  This isn't a hard and fast rule but I have observed it many times.  The resignation of Theresa May in July should be seen as a partial manifestation of this harsh Saturn influence.  But with Saturn still close at hand to the UK's Sun, PM Johnson is likely to remain under extreme stress in the coming weeks, even if he doesn't end up losing power, through an election or some other means (e.g. vote of non-confidence). 

The problem with the election scenario is that Johnson's personal horoscope (19 June 1964 2.00 p.m.) may not be sufficiently afflicted to correspond with a job loss.   Yes, Saturn and Ketu are sitting on his 4th house cusp squaring his Ascendant.  That is not a good placement at all.  It's pretty terrible actually.  And mid-September will see Sun, Venus and Mars aligning with that Saturn/Ketu on his Ascendant.  That will likely be a period of extreme stress and obstacles.   But is it enough for him to lose control of the government?  I don't know. 

One thing in his favour is that Jupiter (21 Scorpio) is opposite his Mercury (26 Taurus).  Mercury rules Virgo and Gemini which happen to be his 1st and 10th houses.  These are key houses for success and status.  Moreover, at the time of a proposed election on 14 October, Jupiter will be exactly opposite his Mercury at 26 Scorpio.  That's a very nice transit to have at a time of possible election since Jupiter generally acts in our favour.  So I'm less convinced that the Conservatives will lose an election in the coming weeks.  The Jupiter-Mercury configuration makes me wonder if Johnson will retain power and will end up with a no-deal Brexit. 

We can see the horoscope cast at the time of his appointment as PM by the Queen (24 July 2019; 3.40 p.m.) is heavily stressed at the end of October.  Mars (23 Virgo) will be square the Saturn-Ketu in that chart indicating intense conflict and frustration. 

The UK chart will also be quite tense as Mars conjoins natal Ketu (22 Virgo).  Also, as (bad) luck would have it, Mercury is due to turn retrograde on Brexit Day, 31 October, and will also be in a close square aspect with Saturn.  Mercury-Saturn aspects normally mark times of disappointment, confusion and broken communication.  This transit suggests that Brexit in whatever form it takes won't be smooth or orderly at all. 

It all adds up to several more weeks of conflict and uncertainty, even if the final outcome is less clear.  While I wouldn't be surprised if there was a snap election, I tend to think it won't happen, Saturn-to-Sun notwithstanding.  The UK chart is in rough shape to be sure, but the country is in rough shape now already.  It is hard to know how much worse it could get.  I think it is more likely than the 31 October date will still be decisive here, and my guess is it will probably signal a no-deal Brexit.  But I'll revisit this question if circumstances change and an election is called.


Weekly Market Forecast

Meanwhile, stocks generally rose last week as hopes for a US-China trade deal were rekindled once again.  While I thought markets would be choppy, the extent of the positive sentiment was a bit surprising given the potentially troublesome Sun-Mars conjunction.  Gold did come off its highs a bit, perhaps as a reflection of this affliction of the Sun by Mars.

This week has an elevated risk of some downside.  The main culprit is the triple conjunction of the Sun, Mars and Mercury which is exact on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This alignment is quite unusual and doesn't always coincide in declines but it does loosely align with the Saturn-Ketu conjunction so there is a somewhat greater risk of some downside this week.  The Venus-Neptune alignment on Wednesday could inject some optimism at some point, but the late week seems bearish.

Hong Kong protests complicate trade talks

(26 August 2019) The situation in Hong Kong remains tense.  Anti-government protests have been ongoing since June and have recently turned violent.  With no clear path out of the stalemate, the Hong Kong stock market has fallen 10% in August as investors seek safe havens.  Meanwhile, fears are growing that Beijing will lose patience with this affront to its authority and send in the army to crush the protest movement. 

The Hong Kong protests are something of wild card in the continuing US-China trade war.  The Chinese government is probably doubly reticent to use the army since it would complicate the trade negotiations with the US.  In all likelihood, it would scuttle the talks for good, as well as lead to a range of sanctions from most Western countries.  Of course, some analysts have concluded that the talks are already dead until after the US elections next year, no matter how much hopeful jawboning we hear from Trump and Xi.

The horoscope of Hong Kong provides a window on the scale of this unrest.  Using the chart for the handover from the UK to China (1 Jan 1997; midnight), we can see that Saturn and Ketu (South Lunar Node) is front and center.  For the past several weeks, Saturn and Ketu are almost exactly conjunct Mercury (19 Sagittarius) and just a few degrees away from the Sun (16 Sagittarius).  By nature, Mercury is the planet that symbolizes trade and commerce so it no surprise that the economy of Hong Kong has been suffering during this transit. 

But it is also important to note that Mercury rules the 1st house (Virgo) and the 10th house (Gemini).  The 1st house symbolizes the jurisdiction as a whole and reflects how the protests have created fundamental disruption to daily life in the territory.  The 10th house represents the government of Hong Kong and it is clear that even if the protests may fade away in the near term, the government of Carrie Lam has suffered a huge blow to its legitimacy.  Even if it manages to hang on, it could become a kind of lame duck administration until the next election.

I would expect the unrest to continue for several more weeks at least.  The Saturn-Ketu conjunction will continue to be very close to Mercury-Sun until October.  Additionally, all of the faster moving planets are due to transit through the 1st house (Virgo) in September and into October.  This suggests we could finally see some developments either toward peaceful resolution or more chaos and violence. 

These transits through the 1st house are extra important because the chart is currently running the Rahu-Rahu dasha period.  Rahu is placed in the first house but it is quite afflicted through its conjunction with Mars and its opposition aspect from Saturn.  Rahu-Rahu began in Jan 2018 and will continue until Sep 2020.  Its natal affliction means that major setbacks and disruptive changes would be very likely during the time of the Rahu dasha.  

The Mercury-Venus conjunction to Rahu in the middle of September could bring some negotiated progress in the conflict.  However, there is a risk of a return to violence after September 25 when Mars enters Virgo. The chart below is cast for 8th October when Mars exactly conjoins Rahu.  This is more likely to be a time of intense conflict and possible violence. 

Could Xi Jinping send in the army?  I'm not sure.  The chart is heavily afflicted now so I would think a military intervention in Hong Kong would require even worse planetary alignments.  For now, I don't really see that.  A military conflict usually manifests with an afflicted Mars in the natal chart (5 Virgo) but we don't have that here.  It is possible that the transit of Mars through Virgo in late Sep and Oct elevates the possibility of violence involving the army.   Perhaps this Mars transit through Virgo would mean that only a lesser amount of violence would be used, unlike, say, Tianamen Square in 1989 which killed hundreds or perhaps thousands.   I will update this chart if events warrant.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks generally fell last week as the US-China trade war escalated on Friday.  This bearish outcome was in keeping with the raised downside risk of the Venus-Mars conjunction that I outlined in last week's post.  Despite this apparently bearish influence, Gold pushed even higher towards $1550.  

This week has started off on a positive note, perhaps as a reflection of Monday's Venus-Uranus alignment.  The rest of the week looks less positive so we are more likely to see a return to at least some volatility and choppier markets.  The Sun is approaching its conjunction with Mars (exact Sep 2) so it could translate into intense or bold actions involving governments and leaders this week.  Next week looks more volatile as Mercury will join the Sun and Mars in Leo in the days immediately following Labor Day.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Gold tops $1500: how much higher can it go?

(12 August 2019) Financial markets are on high alert for the second straight week.  Stocks fell across the board on Monday on mounting recession fears amid ongoing trade and currency uncertainty.  Investors sought out traditional safe havens such as the Japanese Yen, bonds and gold as stocks were widely sold.  The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that most European sovereign bonds now have a negative yield while 10-year US Treasury is fast-approaching its all-time low yield of 1.34%.

Gold has benefited from the worsening economic conditions as it traded Monday at a six-year high of $1531. Gold has rallied significantly over the past two months as it broke above important technical resistance at $1375 in mid-June.  With China devaluing the Yuan to mitigate the effects of Trump's tariffs, other emerging market currencies are also caught in the trade crossfire.  For now, the relative stability of gold has made it an attractive port in this financial storm.

But for how much longer?  From a technical perspective, gold looks like it could retest its 2011 high of $1920 over the next year or two.  The short term is less clear, however, as the speed of the current run-up in prices seems ripe for some kind of pullback. 

Certainly, the planetary indicators suggest that the short term outlook for gold is not positive.  While the price of gold fluctuates with many different planetary factors, we should take special note of the approaching Venus-Mars conjunction.  Venus tends to be a bullish influence for gold when it is unafflicted but when it is associated with malefic planets such as Mars, gold becomes more vulnerable to declines. 


Venus and Mars

Due to the occasional retrograde cycles of both Venus and Mars, the Venus-Mars conjunction occurs irregularly, on average about once every two years. This year the faster-moving Venus is due to catch up to and conjoin Mars on August 24.   It will be within a 10-degree range of Mars between August 8 (last Thursday) and September 9. 

A quick analysis of the previous four Venus-Mars conjunctions shows that the price of gold fell significantly each time.  The box width in the charts below capture the time span when Venus was within 10 degrees of Mars.  The date of the exact conjunction is indicated by a vertical line.  I have omitted one conjunction in late August 2015 because Venus was retrograde.  Interestingly, gold actually rose during that conjunction.  The other four instances -- along with the current one -- have both Venus and Mars moving in their more typical forward direction.

Four data points aren't nearly enough to build a robust correlation, but they do offer some hints into possible future patterns for gold.  In each of the four cases, gold experienced a decline at some point during the 30 to 60-day period of conjunction.   The period near the exact conjunction (Venus-0-Mars) also tended to be particularly bearish.

 

 

While gold looks vulnerable to an overbought technical pullback anyway, the planetary influences make that more likely.  And as luck would have it, Venus is due to enter the sign of sidereal Virgo shortly after leaving its conjunction with Mars.  The Venus transit of Virgo is usually another difficult influence for gold so that is another factor that could weigh on the current rally.  Venus transits Virgo from September 9 to October 3. 

Weekly Market Forecast

While today was negative, stocks generally bounced last week after last Monday's drubbing. The rebound was not unexpected as I thought Jupiter's midweek alignment with the Sun and Venus would likely produce some upside. 

We could well get a similar bounce this week.  Venus is due to conjoin the Sun on Wednesday and Thursday and this is typically bullish.  Thursday has the added feature of being a Full Moon so that could amp up the proceedings in some way, either in terms of trading volume or in the magnitude of the move.  However, the Full Moon does have a deservedly chequered reputation as it is bearish more than it is bullish.  For this reason, we shouldn't be too surprised if the market falls.  And yet, the Sun-Venus pairing is quite positive so there is a decent chance for stocks to rise going into the end of the week. 

More generally, the uncertainty is likely to continue for several more weeks at least as the ongoing Saturn-Ketu conjunction can still pack a punch.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks plunge as US-China trade war escalates

(5 August 2019) "Trade wars are easy to win."   As the US-China trade dispute escalated to new heights over the weekend, US President Donald Trump may well end up regretting his ill-chosen words.  Against the advice of his own advisors, Trump increased tariffs on $300 million worth of Chinese goods last Thursday.  The move shocked markets as stocks around the world sold off sharply.  China retaliated on Sunday by stopping the purchase of US agricultural products and, more importantly, by letting the value of the Yuan float above 7.00 for the first time since the 2008 meltdown.  The devalued Yuan makes China's exports cheaper and thereby is a strategy to avoid the full force of the US tariffs. 

Financial markets sold off sharply again on Monday as the trade war showed signs of getting out of control.  If a trade war is bad, a currency war is much worse, as it increases financial uncertainty and tends to diminish trade and economic activity.  The depression in the 1930s was exacerbated by competitive currency devaluations as countries sought a way out of the slowdown without having to undertake any politically difficult structural adjustment. 

So where does this all end?  I am reluctant to make a specific prediction but the trade friction and financial fallout are likely to continue for a while yet.  As I have noted previously, the Chinese economy was likely to suffer economically in the late summer period due to the Saturn direction station.   The ongoing Saturn-Ketu conjunction (=obstacles, disappointments, disruptions) aligns almost exactly with China's natal Mercury (commerce, trade) at this time.  Saturn is due to station at 19 Sagittarius on September 18 and this will square the Mercury at 20 Virgo.  It's a nasty pattern for economic activity as it means that China is likely to slow further and that US actions will continue to be a problem.  The potential damage of the Saturn station is intensified by the close conjunction of Mercury with Neptune and Ketu in the China natal horoscope.

We can also see why China was quick to retaliate: Jupiter is exactly aspecting its natal Mars.   Mars represents action in general and is also front and center in any conflict.  Jupiter's more benefic influence here gave the Chinese government confidence and intelligence to act in its best interests.  If a country is going to war -- and that includes a trade or currency war -- it is best to do so with this kind of Jupiter influence on Mars.

Trump's initial escalation on Thursday also highlighted a key area in the joint US-China horoscope.  This combined chart cast for the temporal midpoint between their respective birth dates (17 February 1863) was sharply afflicted when Trump announced the additional tariffs.  The Moon and Mars were both conjunct the Ascendant thus reflecting the renewal of the conflict around trade.  This Moon-Mars also just happen to square the natal Mars in the combined chart so that added an extra layer of emnity. 

The larger affliction to the chart involves Venus, the planet of friendship, at 22 Aquarius.  Venus is currently afflicted by the 120 degree aspect of Rahu and the 3rd house/60 degree aspect of Saturn.  This is a very tense pairing since Saturn denies friendship and cooperation, while Rahu/Ketu force sudden changes to the relationship. 

With Saturn due to station in September, this current level of discord is likely to continue for some time.  The Rahu influence will lessen in a couple more weeks so that disruptive, out-of-control quality may diminish first.  Saturn will begin to separate from its 60 degree aspect in October so the relationship may start to improve more substantively by that time. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have been hammered over the past several sessions.  I thought we might have seen at least a short term rise after last week's Fed meeting but it was not to be.  My larger sense of caution from the ongoing Saturn-Ketu conjunction appears to be bearing fruit -- finally.  The relentless rally in US stocks in July was puzzling given the ominous quality of this conjunction.  In last week's post, I even questioned the extent to which a decline could occur.  As always, the exact timing of the impact of alignments is more art than science. 

While some underlying influences remain bearish, I am reluctant to forecast significantly more downside this week.  Markets are getting quite oversold on a technical basis so there is a decent chance for a bounce in any event.  And the short term planetary alignments would seem to point towards a rebound as the Sun and Venus align with Jupiter this week.   So the planets do offer some support for the bullish narrative, even if volatility may remain elevated for a while yet.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.