(23 September 2019)
It never ends. President Trump has come under renewed scrutiny over
the weekend for apparently withholding military aid to Ukraine in
exchange for damaging information on the family of potential Democratic
nominee Joe Biden. If there is clear evidence that Trump sought the
help of a foreign power to gain advantage over a political rival,
moderate Democrats in the House of Representatives would be more
willing to vote to impeach. While calls for impeachment have been growing over the past year, House Leader Nancy Pelosi has resisted it due to the vulnerability of some moderates in the 2020 election. The Ukrainian-Biden affair is shifting the odds towards impeachment, however, as this is a more blatant "high crime and misdemeanor". The House can impeach with a simple majority of 218 out of 435 seats and the Democrats currently control 235 seats.
The Senate would then still have to publicly try the president as per the requirements of a proper criminal trial. Given the high level of partisanship in Congress, it is very unlikely that the GOP-controlled Senate would vote to confirm Trump's impeachment since two-thirds, or 67 votes would be necessary.
As I have noted previously, Trump's fortunes are under considerable stress throughout much of 2019. He entered the less positive Jupiter-Saturn dasha period in November 2018 right around the time the GOP lost control of the House in the midterm elections. It was a sharp rebuke to his authority. Jupiter-Saturn will continue through to June 2021 so will encompass the upcoming election campaign. It's a not a fatal weakness but it's definitely not a plus in terms of his re-elections chances.
Also Trump was subject to a number of very difficult transits this year. Back in April, transiting Saturn stationed in a near-exact square aspect to his Jupiter (24 Virgo). This may have contributed to many negative outcomes and created a sense of being blocked or restrained. Since stationing direct last week, Saturn is again moving forward and will exactly square his Jupiter in early December.
More immediately, Mars (27 Leo) is exactly squaring his Ketu-Moon conjunction at 27-28 Scorpio in recent days. This is a nasty transit for anyone as it increases conflict and frustration, all the more so given the role of Ketu as a kind of cosmic amplifier. This Mars transit was the catalyst for the whole affair and the growing calls for impeachment.
So the question is: will the House finally move to impeach Trump? In previous posts, I thought the summer was a likely time window for impeachment to take place. I was clearly wrong about that. And now that fall has begun I wonder if this is just more Democrat outrage that won't accomplish anything.
And yet, it's clear there are more bad transits ahead for Trump in the coming weeks and months. After Saturn squares up against his Jupiter in early December, it will oppose his Venus-Saturn conjunction in early Cancer in January and February. This is arguably worse than anything he faced in 2019. Saturn-to-Venus not only symbolizes troubles from females (Pelosi?) but Venus also rules his 10th house of career and status. If there is an impeachment proceeding, Venus would likely be afflicted in some way since his status as president would be called into question. The Saturn opposition to Venus-Saturn is made more potent since Pluto will be there also. Pluto represents exercises of power and coercion, so that is a very plausible transit set up for impeachment. And in late January and early February, irascible Mars is conjunct Moon-Ketu for good measure.
But if this Jan-Feb scenario plays out, it would seem unlikely that the question of impeachment could remain unanswered hanging in the air for another three months. Perhaps that may reflect the unwillingness of the White House to hand over the transcript of the intelligence whistleblower which results in a lengthy delay before the House can even consider the evidence. Or it could mean that formal proceedings may begin fairly soon, such as in late October (e.g. Mars squares Saturn/Ketu on Oct 25), but only culminate in a decisive vote during the Jan-Feb period.
But these are only more questions than answers unfortunately. Nonetheless, it seems the impeachment scenario isn't over yet.
Weekly Market Forecast
Stocks tracked sideways last week as the Fed delivered its widely-anticipated cut of 25 basis points. While the cut was seen in positive terms by the market, there was some disappointment that the Fed board is split over the prospects of future cuts. Europe and China were somewhat bearish, however, as growth expectations fell on more negative economic data. Germany may well be in a recession already. India was one bright spot as the corporate tax cut pushed shares sharply higher on Friday and Monday (today).
The planets hinted at a more cautious outcome generally as some of the planetary values dipped below 50 into the midweek period and the Mars-Pluto alignment suggested pessimism.
This week's planets are quite mixed. Venus aligns with bearish Saturn into midweek, just as Mars enters the sign of Virgo. These are both somewhat negative influences. On the plus side, Mercury aligns with Jupiter on Monday and Tuesday while Venus aligns with Jupiter on Friday. There is some downside risk here that will likely manifest at some point but whether it offsets any gains is harder to say.
For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST). I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.
