(29 July 2019)
As the Federal Reserve prepares to meet Wednesday, the US stock market
continues to defy gravity with the indexes at all-time highs. It's a
perfect storm for investors as corporate earnings are generally
strong, money is pouring in from abroad, and now the Fed is widely
expected to cut rates to make credit even cheaper. The "insurance rate cut" of either 25 or 50 basis points may have an immediately calming effect on markets, but by cutting now the Fed is gambling that lower rates can prevent a recession. If it's wrong and we end up in recession anyway, then there will be fewer tools left to kick start the economy. That would increase the risk that this massive $244 Trillion global debt bubble may finally burst through depression, hyperinflation or war. But everything is coming up roses for now as the promise of lower rates has lit a fire under stocks.
In the early spring, I thought the market would be vulnerable to deeper declines in 2019, especially during the summer. One key reason for my concern was the conjunction of Saturn and Ketu (South Lunar Node). These are two natural malefics which do not combine well and can signal major declines and even bear markets. This conjunction occurs every 12 years or so and while they do not always correlate with declines, bearish outcomes occurred more frequently than chance would predict such as in 1939, 1962, 1973 and 2007.
I also thought that the Saturn-Ketu conjunction of 2019 would be more likely to evolve along bearish lines because it included a Saturn retrograde period which saw the conjunction last for several months rather than the usual couple of weeks. The Saturn-Ketu conjunction is still ongoing and will become exact in September when Saturn concludes its retrograde cycle and stations direct.
Aside from a pullback through the month of May, US and Europe stocks have powered higher. While Indian and Chinese stocks have declined during this time of the Saturn-Ketu conjunction, the overall effect has been much more positive than expected. One possible explanation is the presence of Jupiter in the alignment which has been almost exactly 30 degrees away from Saturn and Ketu for the past several weeks. As we know, alignments in multiples of 30 degrees can induce a resonant quality between planets which modulate their effects, for better or worse. Jupiter is a bullish planet, of course, so its ongoing influence on Saturn and Ketu may have mitigated some potential downside.
While this 2019 conjunction may well end up being rather benign and even bullish like the ones in 1985 and 1997, we should note that there are still two full months to go for this bearish conjunction so we cannot rule out the possibility of some troubles in the market. Moreover, we should note that the previous bull market peaked in October 2007 just as Saturn conjoined Ketu. Over the next 18 months, stocks would fall 45% in the Great Recession. So that is an alternate scenario to consider: the Saturn-Ketu conjunction in September may only mark the start of the decline.
Weekly Market Forecast
Our more immediate concern is the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The short term influences are decidedly mixed this week and do not preclude any outcome. The Moon-Venus-Uranus-Chiron alignment on Wednesday suggests a positive reaction to the Fed and yet the Mars-Neptune alignment looks more problematic. It is possible these two factors may offset each other and produce something of a wash. And yet the Mars-Neptune alignment will be past exact by Wednesday so therefore possibly less powerful. For this reason, a bullish outcome looks a bit more likely this week.
For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST). I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.
