The 2020 New Year's Horoscope

(30 December 2019) With the coming of the New Year, we may try to see what may lie ahead for 2020.   The New Year's horoscope is an intriguing and simple way to see possible themes and trends.  This horoscope is a chart cast for the first minute of the New Year, at midnight on January 1.  As a default location, I choose Washington, DC but other locations may also be chosen.  Nonetheless, the Ascendant is always somewhere in the middle of sidereal Virgo, although the exact degree rising can vary somewhat.  While the New Year chart does not correspond to any particular astronomical event, the symbolic importance of the first moment of the New Year can yield important clues about the year upcoming. 

For example, years that are marked by recession and wars tend to have malefic planets in prominent places in the chart.  Thus Mars, Saturn, and the lunar nodes, Rahu and Ketu, are often stronger if they align with the Ascendant, Sun or Moon and other planets.  This happened most recently in 2008, the year of the Great Recession, when the 12th house Saturn was aligned with the Sun, while Mars was opposite Pluto, Jupiter and the Sun.   It was not a good chart. (see below)

This year the New Year's chart doesn't look quite that bad.  And yet I would say that the chart suggests we could see increased instability and change.  One main reason is due to the prominence of the Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu, at the top and bottom of the chart.   Rahu near the 10th house cusp suggests unexpected or disruptive events relating to leaders and governments.  This could represent some major governments failing or being voted out of power. 

The nodal influence is made even greater due to Ketu's close conjunction with Mercury, Jupiter and the Sun, and more widely, with Saturn and Pluto.  Ketu's conjunction with the Sun reinforces the notion that leaders and government will become more unstable this year.  The Ketu influence on the Sun typically undermines notions of power and ego.  This is perhaps a comment on the fallout from the Trump impeachment proceedings and the upcoming US election in November. 

Ketu's conjunction with Mercury and Jupiter looks more positive as breakthroughs in science and communication are more likely.  The trine aspect with Uranus amplifies this sense of discovery.  Of course, the accelerating progress of science and technology is one of the hallmarks of this century.  But this pattern is unique and suggests that 2020 will be a year of major technological innovations and discoveries. 

Besides suffering from potential governments disruptions, there are a couple of alignments that deserve special mention.  First, Saturn is conjunct Pluto within one degree.  This combination can reflect intense situations of restriction and austerity.  Saturn also connotes onerous and disciplined labour with may be coerced in some way  Manipulation by authorities is another theme that captures some of this difficult Saturn-Pluto dynamic.

The second pattern is the Moon-Neptune conjunction.  In its more hopeful form, this pairing suggests spirituality and inspirational visions, such as one might associate with a period of religious flowering or renewal.  However, we should note that the Moon-Neptune combination is closely aspected by Saturn through its full strength 3rd house aspect.  This is a serious affliction that will tend to reduce the positive spiritual manifestations of Moon-Neptune and bring forth its more malefic qualities.  These may include disappointment, delusion and sadness, since the Moon is the planetary significator for the emotions.  This is therefore a potential indicator for generally pessimistic sentiment which could reflect a slowing economy. 

I would also suggest that the affliction of Moon-Neptune by Saturn could signify some kind of disease or health-related problems in 2020.  Neptune is the planet that is frequently connected with illness so its connection with Saturn and the Moon is noteworthy.  Saturn rules the 6th house of health so its association with Neptune and the Moon also raises this as a possible scenario.  By way of comparison, the SARS outbreak in 2003 saw Neptune closely aspected by Rahu in the New Year's chart, while the Moon was closely opposes by Saturn. 

Overall, 2020 looks like it will be an eventful and challenging year on several fronts.  The economy may be an ongoing source of concern but the indications are not as strongly negative as they were in 2008.  This may be suggest that the economy will fare somewhat better, however, we do need to remember that the New Year's chart does not have the final word.  It often operates in broad strokes and in a more impressionistic manner than specific charts relating to financial markets or the fate of specific governments.  Therefore, we will fill out our analysis in the coming weeks and months as events develop. 



Weekly Market Forecast

Financial markets have enjoyed the typical Santa Claus rally as the year wraps up.  As I suggested previously, the end of the year looked fairly positive as the Christmas eclipse occurred with a bullish conjunction of the Sun and Jupiter.  That said, I had been a bit uncertain if the stock market would manage to stay buoyant to the end of the year in the wake of the Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment that had underwritten much of December's rally.  Stocks pulled back somewhat today (Monday) but most indexes are trading very close to their all-time highs. 

This week has a good chance for more upside, perhaps as soon as tomorrow (Tuesday).  Mercury is due to conjoin Jupiter by Thursday so that is likely to coincide with at least one up day (especially on Thursday, Jan 2) although I suspect its positive influence may be felt beforehand.  Friday looks like more of a question mark, however, so bullish investors should be careful. 

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

US-China trade deal sparks Santa Claus rally ahead of Christmas eclipse

(16 December 2019) Investors breathed a sigh of relief after the tentative agreement of the Phase 1 US-China deal late last week.  While there still seems to be some uncertainty surrounding the details of the deal, financial markets finished mostly higher.  In addition, the Fed delivered a dovish statement in its Wednesday FOMC meeting and the UK's Boris Johnson won a large majority in Thursday's election.  These were also bullish developments that helped boost stocks to new highs.

The gains did not significantly diverge from my expectations.  The ongoing Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment was likely to provide a floor for stocks in any event although the bearish Venus-Saturn transit influence did not coincide with much downside.  I had been uncertain about the outcome of the US-China talks as the planetary indications were decidedly mixed although I thought a minor deal was quite possible.  While we have seen a largely positive reaction so far, the optimism could dissipate rapidly as we have seen so many times before in this ongoing saga.

With recession fears diminishing somewhat in recent weeks, the consensus view for stocks is mostly bullish as we finish up 2019 and head into 2020.  I'm far less sanguine, as the bullish Jupiter influence is waning as we approach the holiday season just as Saturn's bearish influence is likely to become more apparent.

One possible turning point in that respect is the upcoming Solar Eclipse that takes place shortly after Christmas Day, at twelve minutes past midnight (EST) on the 26th to be exact. Eclipses can have powerful effects on the markets -- and on our lives in general -- although they usually don't manifest until several days or weeks after the event.  We saw a near-immediate reaction to the lunar eclipse of January 31, 2018 as global markets declined sharply in the days following and thus began an extended period of volatility that would last for months.  Stocks also sold off sharply just two weeks after the lunar eclipse of July 16, 2019.  This is a more typical time lag between the eclipse and the market reaction, whether bullish or bearish. 

Eclipses usually need their energy to be released or triggered by a faster-moving transiting planet like Mars or Mercury.  We can see that the week-long 6% sell-off that began on July 31, 2019 coincided with Mercury stationing direct at 29 Gemini almost exactly opposite the lunar eclipse point at 0 Capricorn.  As I have discussed previously, Mercury stations (retrograde and direct) more often coincide with major moves, both positive and negative.  While other factors played a part in the decline, the Mercury station to the lunar eclipse point was a probable triggering factor. 

This upcoming Christmas solar eclipse will be closely conjunct Jupiter in the Sagittarius.  As configurations go, that is quite positive all other things being equal.  One possible interpretation is that it could mark the proximity of a major high point in the market.   A solar eclipse that conjoins Jupiter could mean that this is "as good as it gets".   Mercury will then transit across the eclipse point of 10 Sagittarius on December 31 so that is another plausible high water mark to consider.  That said, I'm still not sure stocks will continue to rally through to the end of the year.  Certainly, the typical Santa Claus rally around the holiday season tends to lift stocks and that could well happen again this year.  But there are likely to be some noteworthy down days along the way over the next two weeks that could make things difficult for bulls.  

While eclipses can be both bullish and bearish depending on the relevant alignments at the time, it should also be noted lunar eclipses carry more downside risk than solar eclipses.  The next lunar eclipse occurs on January 10, 2020 and may well be in closer proximity to trouble for the markets.  Saturn is more prominent in early 2020 as it will be conjunct Pluto in January and then due to enter sidereal Capricorn in late January and early February.  This Saturn influence is likely to represent a shift in sentiment in the financial markets as we begin 2020.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Trump impeachment draws nearer

(9 December 2019)  The impeachment juggernaut is moving ever-closer to its ineluctable conclusion.  House Democrats are promising a vote on the Articles of Impeachment as soon as next week as Congress prepares to take a break for the Christmas holidays.  While there is still some uncertainty about its exact timing, the Senate trial of President Donald J. Trump would likely begin in January.  A vote to convict would then take place several weeks later at the earliest, perhaps in late January or more likely in February or even as late as March depending on the length of the trial.

Despite the high-stakes proceedings, few people expect Trump to be convicted by the Senate.  It is more likely that the impeachment vote will follow party lines with the Democrat-controlled House voting to impeach much like the GOP-controlled House voted to impeach Bill Clinton in December 1998.  The Senate vote to convict in February 1999 did not pass and largely followed party lines since the GOP lacked the 67 seats out of 100 needed.  The Democrats have 45 seats and would need 22 Republicans to vote against Trump to convict him.  A tall order, to say the least.

That partisan scenario may well play out again this time, although the Trump's horoscope does seem to be heavily afflicted in December and even more so in early 2020.  In late December, we can see that transiting Rahu will conjoin Mercury which could bring disruption, deception and confusion, especially in areas of communication.  Mars will aspect his Sun-Rahu-Uranus conjunction just before Christmas suggesting a time of elevated stress and conflict.  Given the current timetable, that could represent the House passing its impeachment vote. 

But losing the House vote is almost a forgone conclusion.  But if Trump was going to win the Senate vote (i.e. less than 67 votes for impeachment), we should expect to see more positive active influences in his chart in early 2020.  And yet this isn't really the case.  This is one reason why I cannot rule out the possibility that Trump will either be removed from office or avoid the whole process and resign.

As I noted in October, Trump will likely suffer significantly from the transit of Saturn and Pluto which oppose his natal Saturn (0 Cancer) and Venus (2 Cancer) in February and March.  February's Saturn opposition to Saturn-Venus will coincide with a bad Mars transit, that of the conjunction with his Moon-Ketu conjunction in late Scorpio.  Could that possibly symbolize the Senate voting to convict him and thereby removing him from the Presidency?  It still seems unlikely even with these bad transits although it is clearly not a good planetary situation.  One thing that seems clear is that it does not look like a cut-and-dried Trump win in the Senate that the GOP is hoping for.

Another angle on this question involves the chart of Vice-President Mike Pence.  If Trump is impeached and convicted in 2020, then Pence's chart should be positive since he would become president.  But that also isn't clearly borne out by his horoscope, although we should note we do not know his birth time so the margin of error is larger than normal here.  In fact, Pence's chart in early February also looks afflicted as Ketu conjoins his Saturn (erosion of foundations; breaking traditions) and Mars opposes his Sun-Mercury-Moon conjunction.

So it may well be a stressful time for him also.  On reflection, that may not be surprising, since Pence likely lacks any independent power base in the GOP.  It is largely Trump's party so if he is forced out, Pence will be in a difficult position. Trump may well want to continue to exert control over the White House after he has left office.  Therefore, we can't simply assume that Pence will be fully independent. 

And if Trump wants to run for re-election in the event of his resignation/conviction, he may well be able to do so.  If he chooses to resign before the Senate conviction vote, then he may be legally entitled to run for the GOP nomination in July.  Needless to say, 2020 is bound to be an interesting year.  I will update the whole Trump situation as it evolves.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks quickly recovered from last week's brief sell-off as Friday's jobs report came in above expectations.   Both the early week selling and late week rebound were in keeping with the prevailing planetary influences. The Mars-Venus-Rahu alignment in the first half of the week indicated the probability of some downside while the late week Moon alignments with Jupiter and the Sun suggested more optimism and rising stock prices.

Investors this week will be focused on the Fed meeting on Wednesday so we could see a reaction either way.  While sentiment is still supported by the ongoing Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment, it is less clear how much purchase this pattern will have this week.  Tuesday has both positive (Mercury-Jupiter) and negative (Venus-Saturn) alignments in play while the Sun-Venus-Saturn alignment may predominate after Wednesday.   Saturn alignments have an in-built bearish bias, although they do not always correspond to declines.  Nonetheless, caution may be on the rise this week.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Dead or no-deal: US and China face Dec 15 tariff deadline

(2 December 2019) With the December 15 tariff deadline looming, financial markets are again contemplating if the US-China trade deal is half-full or half-empty.  A limited Phase 1 deal was supposedly in the bag in October, only to be undone by the usual cycle of fractured public negotiations on Twitter.  President Trump's support for the Hong Kong protestors angered China over the weekend and has made short term prospects worse.  So will Trump postpone these December 15 tariffs in order to keep the deal moving forward?

Both sides have cards to play.  Trump knows the trade war is probably hurting China more than it is hurting the US so China may be more willing to make a deal on terms favorable to the US.  However, China knows that Trump is in trouble politically with impeachment and with the election coming in November 2020.  Trump needs the stock market to be at or near record highs in order to have a decent chance of winning.  Failure to make a deal with China will cause stocks to fall so China may choose to wait Trump out until he caves. 

As I noted in last week's post, there is good reason to be more cautious about the stock market in the coming weeks.  The planetary influences are gradually shifting from a mostly bullish pattern to a more bearish pattern here in the month of December.  The very bullish alignment of Jupiter, Uranus and Chiron forms its closest angles in mid-December right around the time of the next Fed meeting on December 11, and this potentially pivotal trade deal deadline on December 15.  Once the alignment begins to separate, the risk of a market decline increases.

So there is a possibility of disappointment here right around the time of the trade deadline.  I am reluctant to make a firm prediction in that regard, although I do think that stocks will become more vulnerable around that time and in the days leading up to Christmas.  The second half of December will see bullish Jupiter weaken through its conjunction with Ketu (South Lunar Node) while bearish Saturn become more dominant as it approaches its conjunction with Pluto in January.

If we look at the horoscope of China (1 October 1949), we can see some significant aspects around the time of the deadline. On the plus side, the Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment will highlight the Ascendant at 8 Capricorn.  This augurs well for the country as a whole, although it may not be relevant for the trade deal specifically.  The triple conjunction of Saturn-Pluto-Venus is conjunct the natal Jupiter at 29 Sagittarius.  The Venus hints at positive and constructive developments, but the presence of Saturn in the mix is not good.  It may not be a deal-breaker, but it may undermine the sustainability of any deal.  Also, transiting Mars will be conjunct Venus, the planet of diplomacy and agreement so that is a clear negative factor.

Overall, these alignments suggests a major positive breakthrough is unlikely although some minor deal is still quite possible.  The negative Mars and Saturn influences here are significant, although they may pertain to some other area such as Hong Kong, rather than the US trade deal.   Nonetheless, the outlook looks worse in early 2020 as Saturn and Pluto will conjoin Jupiter more closely and then move on to hit the Ascendant.  A particularly nasty configuration occurs in early April when Saturn and Mars conjoin the Ascendant while Ketu conjoins the 12th house cusp.  It is hard to see the Chinese economy and stock market doing well with these sorts of transits in effect. 

This suggests that China's economy will continue to struggle in 2020 and that growth could slow further.  The constraining Saturn influence on Jupiter (growth) and the Ascendant (the nation as a whole) may well mean that China could slip into recession.  Of course, official GDP data still forecasts 6% growth in 2019 although most observers see this data as manipulated and inflated.  Other data point to more serious problems in the Chinese economy.   


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have started off the week with a decline on renewed trade jitters and some underwhelming US factory data.  The decline coincided with a close alignment of Mars (mostly bearish) with Rahu (sometimes bearish) and Venus (mostly bullish).  We could see more downside over the next couple of days as Mars will remain in close aspect with Rahu.  But the second half of the week looks more positive as the Moon first aligns with Jupiter on Thursday and then with the Sun on Friday.  Maybe this unstoppable rally in US stocks isn't done yet.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

The bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust

(25 November 2019) As investors put a positive spin on the Fed's recent interventions, stocks have resumed their upward climb this week.  Global markets rallied again on Monday after some brief consolidation last week.  As it happened, the pullback coincided closely with the end of the Mercury retrograde cycle on Wednesday.  This was in keeping with expectations as I noted that Mercury's direct station would occur in close aspect with Rahu, the North Lunar Node.  According to the principles of financial astrology, Mercury-Rahu alignments tend to be bearish.  Monday's gain was also not surprising given the bullish Venus-Jupiter conjunction.

It seems the sky's the limit now as fundamentals like corporate earnings and macro economic data are no longer important.  What matters now is that the Fed is underwriting US bank lending by conducting $100 Billion or more in "overnight repos" and buying $60 Billion a month in Treasury Bills.  After an unheralded beginning in October, these interventions amount to a new QE program (now variously called notQE or QE4) as the Fed tries to entice more lending in an effort to prevent the economy from slipping into recession.

As the old saying goes, the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust.   The planetary alignments in the coming weeks suggest the good times may not last much longer.  As I've noted previously, the upcoming Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment in mid-December should coincide with at least some further gains in the stock market.  Jupiter alignments with the outer planets have a fairly good track record of generating some upside.  However, the optimism may not linger for long as the upcoming conjunctions of Jupiter-Ketu and Saturn-Pluto both suggest a sharp reversal in sentiment as we move towards the New Year in 2020. 

These conjunctions are themselves bearish, but we can also see how their negative impact will likely be felt in the horoscope of the Federal Reserve.  In the Fed chart, the planetary affliction is simple and profound.   In mid-December, Saturn (25 Sagittarius) will oppose natal Mars (26 Gemini) and fall under the aspect of Ketu (26 Leo).  This is a very tense and difficult alignment, perhaps even more so since Saturn is parked closely to Pluto (27 Sagittarius) and both will be opposite the Ascendant (25 Gemini) in the natal chart. 

As a possible triggering planet, transiting Mars (25 Libra) will align with Saturn, Rahu and natal Mars during the week of Dec 16-20.  I'm still uncertain exactly when the negative impact of these alignments will be felt as the high risk time window stretches from early December through January.  But the week that follows the next Fed meeting on Dec 11 it definitely worth keeping an eye on as a potential catalyst.  Saturn will remain within range of both Mars and Rahu for the rest of December. 

While it is possible that this kind of planetary affliction may not have any real world manifestation,  it seems much more likely that the Fed will be scrambling in December and probably into January as Saturn then conjoins natal Jupiter at 0 Capricorn.  Whatever the proximate cause of the disruption to the status quo, the Fed will be hard pressed to stay on top of it.  Markets are therefore more likely to be vulnerable to declines. 

With a recession still looking more likely than not in 2020 as Jupiter conjoins Saturn, this could be the beginning of a more difficult year in financial markets.

Meanwhile, this week could see some profit-taking ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.  Tuesday's US trading session features a New Moon that aligns with bearish Mars so that is an elevated downside risk.   Nonetheless, I would not be surprised if the rally has a bit further to run as we go into December.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

UK PM Boris Johnson looks poised to win re-election

(18 November 2019) We are still three weeks away from the UK election on 12 December, but it seems that Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson is poised to win.  Recent polls show the Conservatives with a healthy 10-12 point lead over Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party with both the LDP and Brexit Party trailing far behind.  It would seem that the election is Johnson's to lose at this point. 

The Pound and UK stock market have been rallying in recent days in anticipation of a Conservative victory.  A majority government would finally end the uncertainty over Brexit and secure Johnson's October deal with the EU. 

As I have previously stated, I think Boris Johnson is very likely to win this election.  He will begin his Mercury-Venus dasha period just four days after the election indicating generally positive outcomes for him over the next three years.  Both Mercury and Venus are benefic planets, and both enjoy favourable placements in his chart.  Mercury is ruler of his 1st and 10th houses and placed in Taurus in the 9th house of law and good fortune.   Venus rules the 2nd and 9th houses and is well placed in the 10th house of status conjunct the Sun and Rahu in Gemini.  Moreover, Mercury and Venus exchange signs and thus create an even more powerful interaction during this three-year dasha period.

On election day, Jupiter will be opposite his Venus-Sun in the 10th house thus giving him a boost in status.  Transiting Sun will be opposite his Mercury which should also be seen as generally positive.   However, Rahu will conjoin the 10th house cusp and eventually Rahu's natal position in late February.  While Rahu may have a troublesome side, it tends to do well in the 10th house so I would see this Rahu influence as a plus, although it could also correlate with some unexpected and complicating developments.  It may somewhat increase the odds for a minority "hung" parliament in which the Conservatives do not win more than half the seats.  The Mars transit to Neptune and opposite Jupiter is also a bit suspect and may not adhere to a classic script of a clear victory. 

We can see a possible problem here when we look the chart of Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit Party.  While Farage has agreed to not contest Tory-held seats, his Brexit Party could play an important role in the event of a minority government.  Farage's chart is actually fairly good as the Jupiter-Uranus alignment lines up quite nicely with his natal Mercury in the 9th house.  Whatever the result, this pattern suggests that Farage stands to gain somehow around the time of the UK election. 

An obvious interpretation would be that his Brexit Party holds the balance of power after December 12th.  Or maybe he is just happy that Boris Johnson wins so that Brexit is finally done.  That seems like a bit of a stretch since he is not a big fan of Boris Johnson and his deal with the EU.  Other manifestations are also possible given the many layers of intrigue and influence that are at work behind the scenes in the UK these days.  In the longer term, Farage seems unlikely to wield much power.  He is running the Rahu-Saturn dasha now which is usually not very auspicious. 

Overall, Boris is likely to be returned as Prime Minister but there is a risk that he will not win an outright majority.  This could then extend the Brexit uncertainty all over again, although one would think that Farage's Brexit Party will be a more willing and cooperative coalition partner than the DUP was in the previous Parliament with Theresa May. 

Remainers do not have the stars on their side here.  Corbyn's horoscope doesn't seem very strong.  We have only an approximate birth time for him so I am reluctant to read too much into it.  Nonetheless, it doesn't suggest some sudden reversal of fortunes for him. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have generally continued their melt-up over the past two weeks as the recent Fed interventions in the market have encouraged more money to flow into risky assets like equities.  Previously, I had expected some upside from the entry of Jupiter into sidereal Sagittarius in early November.  However, I had been uncertain how long this boost would last.  Indian and Chinese stocks have gone sideways or down since that early November Jupiter ingress.  It still seems more likely than not that US and European equities will pullback this week and next although December still offers some upside hope to the bulls given the Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment in the middle of the month. 

Mercury completes its retrograde cycle on Wednesday this week so there is some downside risk there.  These Mercury direct stations are not bearish by nature but this time Mercury will align with Rahu which is a more problematic combination.  Bulls should be therefore be careful.   Both Tuesday and Wednesday are more vulnerable to declines than they otherwise would be.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

New highs for US stocks as Jupiter enters Sagittarius

(4 November 2019) Stocks are looking good to start the month of November as the Dow made a new all-time high on Monday.  Trade optimism is in seemingly endless supply as investors are still receptive to all the jawboning coming out of the White House.  And with the Federal Reserve now quietly engaging in its 'not-QE' program of asset purchases, there are more reasons (like $60 Billion per month) to think that stocks could stay in rally mode a while longer.  Never mind that year-on-year US corporate earnings are negative for Q3 and ISM manufacturing data showed a contraction for the third straight month in October.   

After the Fed's widely-anticipated rate cut last Wednesday, the market declined on Thursday just as Mercury turned retrograde.  This was in keeping with expectations since the retrograde stations of Mercury tend to have a bearish bias.  However, Friday saw a strong rebound which continued into Monday's session. This weakens the case for a protracted or deep pullback during the Mercury retrograde period that runs from Oct 31 to Nov 20. 

As I noted last week, while the three-week long Mercury retrograde cycle has a bad reputation for disruption, confusion and miscommunication, its most difficult times are the few days around the retrograde and direct stations themselves.  A trend change is also somewhat more likely around the stations. In this case, that seems less likely since stocks were already bullish heading into the retrograde station on Oct 31.

Part of the reason for the strong start to the week on Monday was because Jupiter entered sidereal Sagittarius.  Jupiter is a bullish planet and it is said to do well in Sagittarius, which is the sign it rules and for which it has a close symbolic affinity.  Jupiter transits through the sign of Sagittarius once every 12 years.  This year was something of an exception due to its retrograde cycle which saw it enter Sagittarius on March 27 and then turn retrograde on April 10.  It subsequently left Sagittarius on April 25 and entered Scorpio where it stayed until Sunday November 3.  Jupiter will complete its transit through Sagittarius on March 28, 2020. 

A couple of important points here.  While Jupiter in Sagittarius is generally bullish, I have found it is only really bullish near the entry and exit from Sagittarius.  Therefore, I would not expect stocks to simply rise through the entirety of the transit until March 2020.  Its previous full transit of Sagittarius took place in 2007-2008 which corresponded closely with the financial meltdown.  So that's definitely not bullish! But the entry (Nov 21, 2007) and exit (Dec 9, 2008) from the sign of Sagittarius did highlight a 5 to 10-day period that was more positive. 

I suspect the March-April 2019 period consisted of a longer-lasting 30-day rally possibly because Jupiter stayed in close proximity to that very bullish first degree of Sagittarius.  Also its stationed retrograde on April 10 and Jupiter stations are usually bullish no matter what sign they occur in. 

The bottom line here is that the bullish effects of this entry of Jupiter into Sagittarius may not last very long.  It may not even last through this week.  But Jupiter is likely to play a significant role in boosting sentiment once again as we get closer to December. 

In early and mid-December, Jupiter will align with Uranus and Chiron.  This is likely to create a floor for the stock market and it could well take stocks even higher.  In the event we have seen a pullback in November, the Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment in December could prevent or at least postpone a larger decline, probably until after the holiday season.

Due to the relatively close ongoing alignment of Uranus and Chiron in recent years, Jupiter has aligned with these two slow-moving planets in late October/early November 2018 and in September 2017.  Both alignments coincided with 3-5% gains during the period in which the three planets were in closest orb.   The Oct/Nov 2018 alignment took place right after the big sell-off in early October and coincided with the bottom and the subsequent late October bounce that topped out around November 8.  While stocks would eventual fall further in the US, late October was a key bottom for Indian stocks.   The Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment therefore provided the bullish fuel for the rebound and recovery that extended into June 2019.  And we should also note that the same alignment was within range at the start of the Trump rally in November 2016, although the exact timing and duration of the alignment was modified and extended somewhat by the presence of Pluto and Saturn.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Mercury turns retrograde after Wednesday Fed meeting

(28 Oct 2019)  Things are looking up for the stock market these days.  The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high today as corporate earnings satisfied buyers while the ever-elusive US-China trade deal appeared to move one step closer to reality.  While trading volumes have been low, some investors are expecting a major new leg higher as the Fed's loose monetary policy promises to keep interest rates as low as possible.  Low rates means that borrowing is cheaper and that can produce more growth in the near-term, whether or not this debt-based economy is sustainable in the long run.

The Federal Reserve meets this week on Wednesday and will issue its latest statement on the economy.  Most investors are expecting another rate cut of 25 points although the bigger question will be the forward guidance for 2020.  With a recession still looming over the horizon, the market is looking for reassurance that further cuts are coming and the Fed is prepared to intervene in the market no matter what.  To some extent, the Fed has already been intervening in the market through its purchases in the overnight repo market and its treasury bill buying in an attempt to entice more money into riskier assets like stocks. 

While a rate cut seems likely on Wednesday, it is unclear how the market will react.  The planetary outlook is very uncertain for the second half of week as Mercury is due to turn retrograde on Thursday, Oct 31.  Mercury retrograde stations often coincide with moments of uncertainty as information and communications can often be interrupted unexpectedly.  Outcomes may be at odds with intentions so this is a bearish bias in the markets. 

By way of background, a Mercury station occurs when Mercury appears to stop and reverse its motion from our perspective on the Earth.  This reversal of direction is a time window of increased vulnerability.  It is important to note that not all Mercury retrograde stations are negative for stocks, however.   If Mercury aligns with a benefic planet like Jupiter on the day of its station, then the reaction may be more positive than negative.  This isn't the case this time around as Mercury forms a novile aspect with bearish Mars later in the week.  This is equivalent to a conjunction in the D-9 Navamsha chart in Hindu astrology. 

Based on my experience, the Mercury retrograde cycle lasts about three weeks and doesn't necessarily correlate with bullish or bearish trends in the stock market.  The Mercury direct station occurs at the end of the retrograde cycle and marks the day when Mercury again returns to its normal forward motion.  This forward station is also a time of vulnerability for stocks, especially if Mercury aligns with a malefic planet like Saturn or Rahu.  As it happens the Mercury direct station on Nov 20 aligns with malefic Rahu so stocks may again become vulnerable to declines at that time.

Therefore, the retrograde and direct stations are 2-3 day windows that warrant close attention.  More generally, I would say the stations are times when stocks are more likely to change their trends.  The previous Mercury Rx cycle saw stocks rise on July 7 on the retrograde station while the direct station on July 31 saw stocks fall.  In the prior cycle, stocks reversed lower on March 5 and then changed trend and reversed higher with the direct station (Merc S.D.) on March 28.  And the previous cycle saw Mercury station on Nov 16, 2018 as stocks trended lower while the end of the retrograde cycle saw stocks fall again on Dec 6, 2018. 

The takeaway here is that the three-week long retrograde cycle is neither bullish nor bearish but that the time around the retrograde and direct stations are susceptible to reversals and trend changes. 

Since markets have been moving higher in October, there is added downside risk around the Mercury retrograde station on Thursday.  Similarly, the direct station on Nov 20 could also see the trend vulnerable to a reversal as Mercury aligns with Rahu.

There is some precedent for a sell-off after the Fed meeting on Wednesday.  So far this year, stocks have declined in the days following the meetings of May 1, July 31 and Sep 18.  The Mercury retrograde station on Wednesday only makes that scenario more likely.   The Planet Strength Index chart also reflects the possibility that the late week will be more negative for sentiment than the first half of the week.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Time running out on Boris' Brexit

(14 October 2019) The tension is mounting as the UK is set to leave the European Union on Oct 31 with or without a deal.  Negotiations are intensifying in recent days as the EU is due to meet on Thursday and Friday to render a decision about any possible last-minute deals.  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has refused to extend the deadline past Oct 31 and has asserted that he would leave without a deal if necessary.  Huge anti-Brexit protests are due this weekend as the country remains deeply divided on the whole Brexit question. 

In a previous post, I thought Boris Johnson would eventually be successful in his drive to take the UK out of the EU by Oct 31.  However, I didn't quite anticipate the level of difficulty he would have up to now as his various tactical strategies have failed.  His desire for a snap election was thwarted because of lack of support in the Commons and his proroguing of Parliament was also struck down by the Supreme Court.

That said, the current political impasse is not that surprising given the level of affliction in the UK national chart.  Transiting Ketu and Saturn are still just one degree away from the Sun indicating severe stress and frustrating situations involving government and leaders.  Both Ketu and Saturn are past their exact conjunctions with the Sun so there is some possibility that the conflict could begin to diminish in coming days. 

I would note that more problems are likely during the upcoming conjunction of Mars to the Ascendant (16 Virgo) at the end of this week.  This coincides with the EU summit where a decision will be made about any prospective Brexit deal.   The Mars transit suggests higher levels of conflict although it is open to interpretation about how it may manifest.  Most simply, it could mean the EU rejects the deal -- a more likely scenario in my view.  But it could also reflect rising anger in the UK itself about an agreement for a deal, given the intensity of feelings on both sides.  Perhaps the deal will be unsatisfactory in some essential way.  Parliament is due to meet in a special sitting the day after on Oct 19 to debate and vote on any deal that has been struck.  The Mars-Ascendant influence is likely to make that a very contentious sitting of the Commons.  Well, no surprise there.

No matter how rancorous Parliament is, I do think the stars favour Boris Johnson.  Jupiter will be conjunct the UK's 10th house ruler Mercury (26 Scorpio) (government, 'good news') in mid to late October.  Interestingly, Johnson's Mercury (26 Taurus) is exactly opposite the UK's Mercury and means that Jupiter will align with his Mercury also.  That makes it more likely for him getting his way.  But Johnson also has basically the same mid-Virgo Ascendant as the UK -- just one degree away -- and that is one reason why he is so popular despite his often questionable tactics.  That means the Mars influence will hit him too and guarantees a very divisive and angry few days between Oct 17-22 for him personally.

As I posted previously, I think Brexit is going to happen on Oct 31 -- with or without a deal.  That's because the planets look very tense on that day with respect to the UK horoscope.  If there was going to be another 90-day extension it would more likely happen in the days leading up to Oct 31.  That would make Oct 31 pass uneventfully.  But the planets suggest the deadline is likely to pass with some importance. 

Mercury turns retrograde on Oct 31 and is square the UK Saturn (2 Leo).  That suggests some major confusion and misunderstandings -- probably related to the circumstances of Brexit.  And since Mercury is the planet of commerce, it suggests a negative stock market reaction to whatever happens in and around Oct 31. Transiting Mars will be conjunct the natal Ketu indicating anger and possible disorder.

Regardless of how messy or bitter Brexit is, I do think the next few months look fairly good for PM Boris Johnson.  With an election very likely in the coming months, he is in good position to win. 

Jupiter saves Justin: Canada's Trudeau wins re-election

(22 October 2019) Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau has won a second, albeit smaller, mandate on Monday as voters largely forgave his scandals and personal mistakes.  With the minority win, Trudeau's Liberals will now have to share power with the left-leaning NDP in order to form a functioning government.  The limited victory likely came as relief to Trudeau whose hold on power seemed precarious as a series of scandals and a spotty governing record made defeat a real possibility. 

Trudeau's win was not surprising to students of astrology, however.  As I posted back in March during the SNC-Lavalin corruption scandal, I thought Trudeau's horoscope was strong enough that he would win re-election, although he could lose his majority.  That is exactly what has come to pass. 

There were three key configurations in his chart that suggested a winning election result.  First, Trudeau would be experiencing his Jupiter Return in October.  This is a very strong positive influence as Jupiter confers rewards and wishes fulfilled, along with wisdom and "right action".  Jupiter returns to its natal position every 12 years and often highlights a short one or two-week time period of good fortune and new opportunities. 

Also Uranus (10 Aries) was forming a perfect Grand Trine with his natal Sun (10 Sagittarius) and the Ascendant (10 Leo).  Uranus moves very slowly -- just a few degrees a year -- so this Uranus alignment with the Asc-Sun alignment was very likely going to be manifestly positive for him.  The Sun represents the self and the ego, especially in leadership roles.  Uranus acts as a magnifier and is oriented towards projection into the public sphere.  Like the Sun and the Moon, the Ascendant is another significator of the self.   It was a fantastic configuration to have at a key moment in his political career.

Also, I noted that Trudeau's tertiary progressed Jupiter (not shown) was aligned with the progressed Sun and that this Jupiter is due to station direct over the next several months.  This is another powerful indication for career success.  These kinds of progressed Jupiter stations are probably even luckier in their effects than Jupiter Returns.  The timing is looser than with transits but it nonetheless creates a generally positive 2-4 month time window. 

Trudeau is running the Moon-Mercury dasha period which is another favourable influence.  The Moon is in the 8th house in Pisces with Mars and Chiron which isn't great but it does receive a close aspect from Jupiter.  Mercury rules the 11th house of gains and is conjunct Jupiter in the 4th house.  Overall, those are two generally positive dasha lords. 

The outlook for Trudeau seems mixed at best.  The Moon-Ketu dasha begins in December and will run until mid-2020. With Ketu in the 12th house, this doesn't bode well for Trudeau and his fragile minority government.  Troubles involving foreign countries are more likely and a sex scandal is possible as Venus aspects Ketu quite closely.  As it happens, Moon-Venus will be the next dasha period from mid-2020 to 2022.  Venus is with Rahu in the 6th so that also could be mixed for him with a possibility of legal problems involving females.

Minority governments do not adhere to a fixed election schedule so it is unknown when his next campaign will be.  If his government can stay in power for a while, then the Moon-Sun period starts in 2022 and would be a more promising time for him.  Election outcomes before that time look more uncertain.



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have moved higher over the past several days on hopes for a Brexit deal and and positive US corporate earnings.   This outcome wasn't too surprising as I thought the Jupiter-Pluto alignment would likely offer some support to market sentiment.  That said, I thought we might have seen more downside than what we got.

This week looks more bearish as Mars aligns with Ketu and Saturn.  The Mars-Saturn alignment isn't exact until Sunday the 27th so that could limit the overall negativity somewhat.  The Planet Transit Index has a negative bias that should give bulls pause. 

With Jupiter-Pluto now separating there could be less positive influence to offset any negative short term aspects.  While I would not rule out a positive weekly outcome, the downside risk seems elevated given this Mars transit.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

The astrology of recession: Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto in 2020

(7 October 2019) Stocks have trended lower over the past week as surprisingly weak US manufacturing data has renewed recession concerns.  While Friday's middling US jobs report offered some respite, US markets were down for the week.  European and Asian markets were also generally lower as bonds and gold rallied. 

This bearish outcome was not unexpected as I thought the midweek Mercury-Mars alignment would likely correlate with some downside.   The late week rebound in the US and Europe also fit nicely with the entry of bullish Venus into Libra on Thursday and Friday. 

As bond yields are again testing their recent lows, the market is still focused on a possible recession next year.  The 10-year US Treasury is again yielding near 1.5% and remains the only game in town for many international investors who are seeking both safety and a positive return on capital.  With most Japanese and European government bonds with negative rates, money is flooding into both US equity and debt markets. 


Recession and planetary alignments

So how likely is a recession?  The planetary alignments would suggest a recession next year is more likely than not and certainly more likely than the ever-sanguine Federal Reserve.  Saturn is the planet of pessimism and restriction and it is often prominent during times of economic contraction and slowdown.  Saturn is due to conjoin Pluto and Jupiter in the first half of 2020.  Typically, close alignments between Saturn and other slow-moving planets increase the probability of economic difficulty. 

The last time Saturn, Pluto and Jupiter similarly conjoined was in 1981-1982.  This coincided with a 16-month long recession under Reagan that saw unemployment peak at 11% in November 1982 while the GDP fell by almost 3%.  We can see that Saturn was exactly conjunct Pluto at 4 Libra during the depth of the recession in late 1982 while Jupiter has moved past somewhat although still in the sign of Libra.

Interestingly, the exactly conjunction of Saturn and Jupiter occurred in July 1981 right at the time the recession began.  We should also note that the preceding Saturn-Jupiter conjunction occurred in 2000, the same year as another recession began.  We won't consider that case here since Pluto was not conjunct Saturn that year.   (N.B.  Saturn conjoins Jupiter every 20 years; Saturn conjoins Pluto every 35 years.  Saturn last conjoined both Jupiter and Pluto in 1820, and even then with a wider orb than in 2020)

This time around we will see these planets converge, albeit in a different sequence.  Saturn will first conjoin Pluto in January 2020, while Jupiter is due to make a wide five-degree conjunction with Saturn in May 2020 before both planets turn retrograde.  The exactly Saturn-Jupiter conjunction will then occur in December 2020.  

My general expectation is that these Saturn conjunctions with Pluto and Jupiter greatly increase the likelihood of a US recession in 2020.  Europe may already technically be in a recession so it may not take much for the US to follow suit, especially given the ongoing trade dispute with China and now the very real possibility of a Trump impeachment or resignation.

Moreover, I would note that the Saturn-Pluto conjunction in March 2020 will exactly oppose the natal Mercury (3 Cancer) in the US national horoscope.  Mercury is closely associated with commerce and economic activity so the Saturn-Pluto influence will likely have a negative impact.  As an alternative interpretation, we should also note that the affliction of Mercury could reflect the growing government crisis over impeachment since Mercury rules the 10th house in the chart and the 10th house symbolizes leaders and governments. 


Weekly Market Forecast

This week has started off on a bearish note as stocks were lower on Monday.  This produced a fairly predictable decline given the Sun-Saturn square aspect.  The rest of the week looks choppy at best with more down days possible as both Mars and the Sun will remain under some pressure from Saturn.  The late week looks somewhat more bullish, however, with Friday's Sun-Jupiter-Pluto alignment looking fairly good for an up day.


For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks wobble as Dems launch impeachment inquiry

(30 September 2019) Stuff is getting real now in Washington, DC as Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi finally pulled the trigger on the impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump.  The revelations in the Ukraine-Biden affair convinced Pelosi and the more moderate wing of the party to go ahead with the controversial impeachment inquiry.  Hearings are due to begin this week with the subpoena Trump's lawyer Rudy Giuliani. The eventual timing of the House votes on the Articles of Impeachment will depend on the length of the investigations but seem most likely to take place in November or December.  

In last Monday's post, I outlined a few time windows that could be decisive in this impeachment process: 1) late September;  2) late October;  3) early December and perhaps most importantly;  4) January-February.  In terms of the current transit picture, I didn't properly understand that the Mars (28 Leo) square aspect to Trump's volatile Moon-Ketu combination at 28 Scorpio could actually bring about the formal beginning of the inquiry.   It was clearly bad news for the president but it also more or less exactly coincided with impeachment launch. 

Interestingly, that same Mars transit also activated a key nasty pattern in Trump's inauguration chart (Jan 20, 2017, noon).  Mars was exactly square Saturn (29 Scorpio) and opposite natal Mars (0 Pisces).  This confluence of malefics is bad enough, but Mars and Saturn are doubly important in the presidential inauguration chart because Mars rules Aries which is the 1st house of the nation as a whole while Saturn rules Capricorn which is the 10th house of leaders and government.  Any afflictions to these planets will therefore likely correlate with problems for Trump.

The inauguration chart suffers from a more fundamental affliction since that ongoing Saturn-Ketu conjunction near 19-20 Sagittarius is sitting atop the equal 9th house cusp.  The 9th house symbolizes legal affairs such as impeachment.  Both Saturn and Ketu are usually negative influences and here they reflect stressful or harmful situations relating to law, including the Constitution.

The late October alignment of Mars with Saturn-Ketu will again highlight the 20 degree house cusps in the Inauguration chart.  Conflict may reach an interim peak around this alignment and could even correspond with the first vote to impeach.  Alternatively, it could be a lesser development but one which is no less damaging to Trump.  Remember that even if the House votes to impeach it still requires the Senate to convict him.  Most observers are expecting the House to vote to impeach but at the moment, it seems less likely that the Senate will impeach as GOP party loyalty to Trump looks intact for now. 

As restrictive as it may be, I don't think the early December Saturn-Jupiter alignment in Trump's chart is going to be decisive.  The more damaging alignment is likely in early 2020 when Saturn conjoins Pluto and both line up against the Venus-Saturn in Trump's chart in the 12th house of isolation and punishment.  

The inauguration chart is quite telling on that front since Saturn and Pluto will conjoin the MC (unequal 10th house cusp) and thereby highlight fundamental matters of leadership.  Saturn and Pluto may symbolize 'restrictions of power', 'acts of coercion' or the 'exercise of power'.   It looks like a very intense and portentous alignment.  At the same time,  Saturn (1 Capricorn) will also cast its full-strength 3rd house/60 degree aspect to Mars.  Overall, this looks like a very difficult time for Trump and the US government.

There is even more difficulty ahead since Saturn is due to station retrograde in April at 7 Capricorn, which is just one degree past the Sun (6 Capricorn) in the inauguration chart.  The Sun is the planet that represents the president and the Saturn station in April-May looks terrible for Trump.  As if to highlight the importance of that early spring window, Mars will conjoin Saturn atop that Sun on March 31.  While current political betting odds only have the Senate 25% likely to convict Trump, this gauntlet of Saturn and Pluto aspects in early 2020 suggest Trump's removal from power is more likely than many expect. 


Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks slipped last week as uncertainty surrounding the impeachment persuaded some investors to reduce their exposure.  Markets in Europe and Asia were also generally lower although once again, India rallied on tax cut optimism.   This negative outcome was not too surprising as I thought the Venus-Saturn alignment and the Mars entry into Virgo would likely make it difficult for stocks to rise.

This week has started on a positive note as Monday's Venus-Jupiter-Pluto alignment was predictably bullish.  Mercury aligns with Mars on Tuesday and Wednesday, however, so we should expect some kind fallout from that pairing.  Venus enters sidereal Libra on Thursday and Friday so that often translates into at least one up day.  Since Friday's Moon-Mars aspect is often bearish, that loads of the bullish cosmic dice for Thursday a bit more than for other days.  The relative strengths of these alignments are reflected in the Planet Transit Index below. 

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

(Trump photo: c-span.org)

Democrats one step closer to impeaching Trump

(23 September 2019)  It never ends.   President Trump has come under renewed scrutiny over the weekend for apparently withholding military aid to Ukraine in exchange for damaging information on the family of potential Democratic nominee Joe Biden.  If there is clear evidence that Trump sought the help of a foreign power to gain advantage over a political rival, moderate Democrats in the House of Representatives would be more willing to vote to impeach. 

While calls for impeachment have been growing over the past year, House Leader Nancy Pelosi has resisted it due to the vulnerability of some moderates in the 2020 election.  The Ukrainian-Biden affair is shifting the odds towards impeachment, however, as this is a more blatant "high crime and misdemeanor".  The House can impeach with a simple majority of 218 out of 435 seats and the Democrats currently control 235 seats. 

The Senate would then still have to publicly try the president as per the requirements of a proper criminal trial.  Given the high level of partisanship in Congress, it is very unlikely that the GOP-controlled Senate would vote to confirm Trump's impeachment since two-thirds, or 67 votes would be necessary. 

As I have noted previously, Trump's fortunes are under considerable stress throughout much of 2019.  He entered the less positive Jupiter-Saturn dasha period in November 2018 right around the time the GOP lost control of the House in the midterm elections.  It was a sharp rebuke to his authority.  Jupiter-Saturn will continue through to June 2021 so will encompass the upcoming election campaign.  It's a not a fatal weakness but it's definitely not a plus in terms of his re-elections chances.

Also Trump was subject to a number of very difficult transits this year.  Back in April, transiting Saturn stationed in a near-exact square aspect to his Jupiter (24 Virgo).  This may have contributed to many negative outcomes and created a sense of being blocked or restrained.  Since stationing direct last week, Saturn is again moving forward and will exactly square his Jupiter in early December. 

More immediately, Mars (27 Leo) is exactly squaring his Ketu-Moon conjunction at 27-28 Scorpio in recent days.  This is a nasty transit for anyone as it increases conflict and frustration, all the more so given the role of Ketu as a kind of cosmic amplifier. This Mars transit was the catalyst for the whole affair and the growing calls for impeachment.

So the question is: will the House finally move to impeach Trump?  In previous posts, I thought the summer was a likely time window for impeachment to take place.  I was clearly wrong about that.  And now that fall has begun I wonder if this is just more Democrat outrage that won't accomplish anything.

And yet, it's clear there are more bad transits ahead for Trump in the coming weeks and months. After Saturn squares up against his Jupiter in early December, it will oppose his Venus-Saturn conjunction in early Cancer in January and February.  This is arguably worse than anything he faced in 2019.  Saturn-to-Venus not only symbolizes troubles from females (Pelosi?) but Venus also rules his 10th house of career and status.  If there is an impeachment proceeding, Venus would likely be afflicted in some way since his status as president would be called into question.  The Saturn opposition to Venus-Saturn is made more potent since Pluto will be there also.  Pluto represents exercises of power and coercion, so that is a very plausible transit set up for impeachment.  And in late January and early February, irascible Mars is conjunct Moon-Ketu for good measure.

But if this Jan-Feb scenario plays out, it would seem unlikely that the question of impeachment could remain unanswered hanging in the air for another three months.  Perhaps that may reflect the unwillingness of the White House to hand over the transcript of the intelligence whistleblower which results in a lengthy delay before the House can even consider the evidence.  Or it could mean that formal proceedings may begin fairly soon, such as in late October (e.g. Mars squares Saturn/Ketu on Oct 25), but only culminate in a decisive vote during the Jan-Feb period. 

But these are only more questions than answers unfortunately.  Nonetheless, it seems the impeachment scenario isn't over yet.



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks tracked sideways last week as the Fed delivered its widely-anticipated cut of 25 basis points.  While the cut was seen in positive terms by the market, there was some disappointment that the Fed board is split over the prospects of future cuts.  Europe and China were somewhat bearish, however, as growth expectations fell on more negative economic data.  Germany may well be in a recession already.  India was one bright spot as the corporate tax cut pushed shares sharply higher on Friday and Monday (today).

The planets hinted at a more cautious outcome generally as some of the planetary values dipped below 50 into the midweek period and the Mars-Pluto alignment suggested pessimism. 

This week's planets are quite mixed.  Venus aligns with bearish Saturn into midweek, just as Mars enters the sign of Virgo.  These are both somewhat negative influences.  On the plus side, Mercury aligns with Jupiter on Monday and Tuesday while Venus aligns with Jupiter on Friday.  There is some downside risk here that will likely manifest at some point but whether it offsets any gains is harder to say. 

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks fall after Saudi oil attack; oil rises 12%

(16 September 2019)  Stock markets ended Monday modestly negative after a sudden drone attack on Saudi oil facilities.  US stocks fell about 0.5% while bonds, gold and, of course, oil rallied on the news of the supply interruption.  While it is unclear who was responsible for the attack, the US is already pointing fingers at Iran or its Yemeni allies.  Retaliation from the US or Saudi Arabia has not yet occurred, but the situation is dangerously uncertain.  Moreover, the attack reveals a major vulnerability in Saudi oil production going forward.

The timing of the attack comes at an awkward time as stocks are within 1% of their all-time high and investors await the latest statement on interest rates from the Fed on Wednesday.  In other words, it may become harder to stocks to move to new highs given this unwelcome geopolitical development.  The Federal Reserve may also have to reconsider its default position of cutting rates in light of this possible inflationary spike in oil prices. 

Here are a couple of charts worth considering.  First, the NYSE horoscope suggests declines were somewhat more likely today and indeed, this week generally as Mars approaches its natal position at 27 degrees of Leo.  Mars-to-Mars transits are often stressful and frequently coincide with declines in stocks.  Mars will remain in conjunction with its natal position for the rest of the week, including the Fed meeting.  This increases the probability of more declines this week. 

We can also note that the ongoing Saturn-Ketu conjunction still looms large in the chart.  Saturn ends its retrograde cycle on Wednesday (FOMC day!) and will resume its normal forward motion.  As I have previously written, the Saturn-Ketu conjunction bears close attention as it is frequently associated with falling markets.  This year's Saturn-Ketu conjunction was unusual in that both Saturn and Ketu were moving backwards (retrograde) in tandem for several months.  This did not produce a uniformly bearish effect, however.  Asian markets (China, India) and many emerging markets were generally lower for the duration of the conjunction from April until now.  But the US and Europe were more positive, albeit with some choppiness. 

As it happened, the chart for Brent crude oil was looking somewhat bullish this week.  Jupiter and Neptune were aligned with the Ascendant, along with Mars and the all-important Moon.  This is a mostly positive pattern, especially given the inclusion of Jupiter.  The Mercury-Venus conjunction is aligned with natal Mercury this week so that was another potentially positive configuration.  I'm less convinced there will be more upside in the days to come, especially after the Fed meeting.  To be sure, the slow-moving Jupiter-Neptune influence is a fairly bullish influence but the Saturn-Ketu conjunction may be operating in the opposite direction. 


Weekly Market Forecast

The rest of the week may bring more downside, especially after the Fed statement on Wednesday.  One source of concerns is the midweek Mars-Pluto alignment.  This combination carries some downside risk, especially later in the week.  We should also note that both Mercury and Venus come under the full-strength square aspect of Saturn during the late week and into early next week.  This isn't always bearish, but it nonetheless skews the probabilities towards a negative outcome.

Ordering the various influences of each planet on a daily basis produces a speculative dot plot chart.  Here I am using the Vedic Shad Bala and Ashtakavarga charts as inspiration, rather than as a specific data source.  My own view of the respective planetary strengths is a composite of aspects, sign placements, and relative house rulerships.  The dip below 50 for several planets focuses on midweek and the Fed meeting. Let's see if Jay Powell will disappoint the markets once again.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.