Markets in New York slumped badly last week in advance of the Mars-Saturn conjunction. While I had thought we might sneak a decent week in before the inevitable deluge last week, I was a little off in my timing as losses deepened at the end of the week. The Dow starts Monday at 11,346, thus erasing the previous winter low and is now officially in bear market territory. The S&P is in modestly better shape at 1278, just one percent above its winter low, and down over 18% off its previous high. While exact market timing remains as elusive as ever, my overall bearish forecast has been borne out by June's decline. The question is, will the market continue to slide as the Mars-Saturn conjunction tightens?
Aside from the obvious intensifying of the aspect, I think there's good reason to think there is more downside here. It's possible we will see 11,000 and 1230 this week so there is good reason to stay short this market, at least until July 10th. My best guess here is that next week will be worse than this week. The natal Venus (10 AQ) in the S&P chart will receive the twin malefic energy of Mars and Saturn when they oppose it next week on July 10. The natal Mercury (7 AQ) in this chart will be opposed by transiting Mars on July 2-3 this week, so that might signal further significant declines. Monday doesn't look good with Moon in a square to the Mars-Saturn-Neptune at the open and may reinforce the gloom in the coming days. I wonder if Thursday is the best day of the week as Moon is conjunct Venus opposite Jupiter. With no trading Friday ahead of the July 4th long weekend, volume is likely to be lighter than normal so the mood may unrealistically buoyant. I don't want to preclude the possibility that we've seen the bulk of the decline already and we may be close to forming an interim bottom around here. This goes for all world markets.
The BSE is also coming off a tough week and opens at 13,802. Note how Friday's 600 pt decline corresponded with transiting Mars (3 LE) exactly opposing the natal Saturn (3 AQ) in the BSE 1875 chart. Now that it's broken through 14k, there is considerable room here for more declines. The IFN ETF chart resembles the S&P chart in that there are a few planets in Aquarius (Sun 3 AQ, Saturn 8 AQ, Venus 10AQ, Mercury 12 AQ) that are under pressure from transiting Mars and Saturn. While it is sometimes a mistake to expect the biggest moves when aspects come exact, it is still a useful rule of thumb. I would also add that there is no strong confirmatory bearish signal in the Nifty and BSE 1875 charts. Transiting Sun passes over the equal 12th house cusp in the Nifty chart towards the end of the week, so that might be the worst day of the week. The following week looks worse as transiting Venus conjoins the natal Rahu while tr Mercury conjoins the natal Mars (opposite natal Pluto). There is a good chance that losses may not be too extensive this week, but next week's negativity would keep me from being long in this market.
Tokyo is coming off a down week and opens at 13,544. The natal Saturn (6 LE) in the TSE chart will be conjoined by tr Mars early this week and signals further losses. The Topix chart has 10 Leo rising and this will get hit by both Mars and Saturn next week at the conjunction. Moreover, tr Mars will square the natal Mars (8 SC) creating a very intense and bearish configuration. This again confirms the likelihood that next week will be worse than this week. While Japanese markets have outperformed most other global markets thus far this year (the key indexes are both running Jupiter dasha), there's a decent chance it will play catch up on the downside in the second week of July. I think a close below 13,000 is likely.
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As predicted, the Euro is coming off a solid week and starts at 1.5787, well above our 1.57 target. I think the Euro will have a tougher road this week as tr. Mars is closer to the equal 12th house cusp. We might see some gains in the US dollar early in the week which might push it down below 1.57. I think the buying will return later in the week, however, as the Moon transits the 10th and 11th houses in the natal chart. Overall, I think we'll finish near our current levels, maybe slightly above. The week following looks stronger so it's possible that the 1.60 level might be broken then as tr Mercury hits the 10th cusp.
As predicted, Gold had a good week against a flagging US dollar, rising above $900 and it opens Monday at $931. It's likely got more juice in the tank this week but it may be volatile. The charts show a conflicting picture. The iShares Comex Gold ETF chart (Jan 21 2005 9.30 NY) looks good as tr Jupiter in the 11th conjunct Sun and Mercury is reinforced by the aspect from transiting Venus. Tuesday may not be great, however, as tr Mercury and Moon oppose the Mars in this chart. Tr Venus conjoins the natal Saturn in the futures chart which may also be bearish. Wednesday and Thursday should see a return to strength as Moon and Sun will transit under the aspect of the Futures natal Jupiter. Hopefully, that puts Gold in the plus column for the week. The following week looks more uncertain. I'd be skeptical about any lasting up moves here. By contrast, I prefer the last week of July as the start of a lasting rally.
As predicted, Oil is coming off another bullish week as prices topped out at $142 before closing just above $140. With tr Mercury passing over the ascendant in the Futures and ETF chart under Rahu's aspect, this up trend is likely to continue. Wednesday the 2nd looks very strong as tr Venus comes under benefic aspect of Jupiter in the ETF chart. This current rally is likely to end July 8-10 when the Mars-Saturn opposes the natal Venus in the ETF chart while tr Mercury conjoins the natal Mars. We may be above $150 by then, so the decline might be sudden and take us back under $135. Another major rally is likely to start in the last week of July.
