Microsoft and Google lead tech stocks to record highs

 (27 October 2021) Tech giants Microsoft and Google surged to new all-time highs today after reporting record corporate earnings for the third quarter.  Following their early October lows, stocks have  generally rebounded into the October earnings season as most earnings have come in above analysts' expectations.  The recent gains are a plausible manifestation of the prevailing energy of Jupiter. 

Since the culmination of its retrograde cycle and direct station on October 16, Jupiter (28 Capricorn) has returned to normal forward motion.  More importantly, it now forms a close alignment with Pluto (0 Capricorn) and Neptune (26 Aquarius) whereby each planet is separated by 28 degrees. 

Whenever three or more planets form this type of symmetrical alignment, the energies of the planets becomes more powerful.  Both Pluto and Neptune act as neutral factors here, but Jupiter is almost always bullish and its participation in this alignment is a key source of the current rally. 

Natal charts provide another window on the ups and downs of collective human sentiment.   In light of the importance of these trillion-dollar technology companies, the horoscope of the tech-heavy NASDAQ can provide additional insights into potential market movements going forward.

We can see that transiting Jupiter is well-placed as it is in conjunction with both the Sun and Rahu in the 10th house.  This is another reason for the strong performance of technology stocks.  Although Jupiter is moving quite slowly here following its direct station, it will gradually separate from the Sun and Rahu later in November.  This is a potential source of weakness. 

More immediately, we can see that Rahu and Ketu (the Lunar Nodes) and Mars will form a potentially significant alignment with several key points in this chart.  Since both Rahu/Ketu and Mars are natural malefics, their alignments with the natal Ascendant, Mercury and the Moon in the coming days are more likely to coincide with a decline.  Rahu (7 Taurus) also forms an exact 120 degree alignment with natal Mercury (7 Capricorn) and Ketu (7 Scorpio) aligns with the natal Moon (7 Cancer). 

While I have chosen to use the transits for Monday, November 1 to illustrate the theoretical maximum of this alignment, I acknowledge it could manifest a few days before or after.   Sometimes human sentiment does not faithfully obey the laws of planetary geometry.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Supply chain disruptions fueling inflation

(20 October 2021) While the worst of the pandemic is behind us, it seems the full impact of its economic consequences are only starting to be felt.  Supply chain disruptions are causing havoc all over the world as port facilities are overwhelmed playing catch-up with the backlog as consumer demand returns to something approaching normal.  The interruption in global trade has led to shortages in many goods and raw materials and this scarcity has produced a rapid rise in both retail and producer prices.

Inflation has risen sharply across many sectors such as energy, food, base metals and other commodities.  The consensus view is that these supply bottlenecks are unlikely to end anytime soon.  Even the normally sanguine Federal Reserve is now admitting that its previous prediction of inflation as "transitory" may have been too optimistic.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expects these higher levels of inflation to persist well into 2022.  

An astrological perspective on this question also suggests we could be in for extended period of economic disruption and elevated inflation.  Looking at the horoscope of the USA, we immediately notice the multiple afflictions upon Mercury.   This is a key point because Mercury is the planet that represents commerce, transport and communications.  When Mercury is afflicted, then problems associated to these areas become more likely.   The initial pandemic and subsequent lockdowns in 2020 occurred while Saturn closely opposed Mercury.  The August 1981 air traffic controllers strike and subsequent mass firing by President Reagan occurred as Rahu (North Lunar Node) was conjunct Mercury.  

Currently, Mercury is afflicted by no less than three malefic planets -- Pluto, Ketu, and, to a lesser extent, Saturn.  While slow-moving Pluto was exerting its negative influence on Mercury throughout last year's pandemic lockdowns, Pluto (0 Capricorn) is still opposite Mercury (3 Cancer).  Pluto afflictions are known for their coercive and unpleasant qualities and often involve some exercise of power that blocks the free expression of will that otherwise animates the free market capitalist economy. 

The Pluto opposition aspect is particularly difficult and is one essential ingredient in the current interruption of transport and commerce.  But the really bad news here is that since Pluto only moves about 2 degrees per year, it will remain within range of the USA's Mercury through all of 2022 and into 2023.  This suggests that the inflationary fallout of the supply chain breakdowns may be with us for a while. 

Also, we can see that Ketu (South Lunar Node) is approaching its 5th house/120 degree aspect with Mercury.  Ketu is another natural malefic that often brings troubles to Mercury-related significations.  Ketu symbolizes disruptions of order, sudden upsets and the erasing of boundaries.  Ketu (7 Scorpio) has been slowly backing into a closer alignment with Mercury (3 Cancer) for the past two months or so.  And since it isn't due to exactly align with Mercury until February 2022, we should expect the current economic and transportation troubles to continue at least until that date.  

And we can still point to the ongoing role of Saturn (12 Capricorn) in this situation.  Saturn has been opposite Mercury for the past 18 months and may still be frustrating communications  and undermining commerce.  That said, it has now concluded its latest retrograde cycle and has begun to move further away from its opposition aspect.  This suggests a gradually diminishing affliction although Saturn will remain in the sign of sidereal Capricorn well into 2022. 

Overall, these ongoing afflictions to Mercury suggest that the situation is unlikely to substantially improve before the key holiday retail season.  Perhaps the exact Ketu-Mercury alignment in Q1 2022 could mark the worst of it, after which the situation could start to improve.  But the Pluto-Mercury opposition could indicate further economic problems for much of the rest of Joe Biden's term. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have rebounded strongly in recent days on favourable corporate earnings and the promise of more QE support from the Fed despite rising inflation.  Not surprisingly, we saw some gains in the early week as both Jupiter and Mercury stationed direct on Monday.  Planetary stations (i.e. moments when planets reverse their apparent direction as seen from Earth) coincide with periods of greater planetary influence.  Since both Jupiter and Mercury are considered natural benefics, their stations are more likely to bring gains in the stock market.  Today's Full Moon hinted at some volatility but it proved to be a non-event.

The rebound likely has a bit further to go as the near-stationary Jupiter (28 Capricorn) remains in a close midpoint alignment with Neptune (26 Aquarius) and Pluto (0 Capricorn) here in late October.   That said, Friday's Mars-Pluto square carries some downside risk, especially since both planets will be in the first degree of Libra and Pluto, respectively.  The first and last degrees of sidereal signs can sometimes increase the manifested energy of the planets, for good or ill.  Since both planets are malefics, the downside risk increases. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Photo credit: Marc

Global energy shortage pushes oil above $80

(13 October 2021) Financial markets have turned cautious as an emerging global energy shortage has driven the price of oil and natural gas to their highest levels since 2014. The energy shortages in China, India and several other countries are the partial result of post-pandemic supply chain bottlenecks and have produced regional brown-outs and significant industrial restrictions in power use.  The shortages are one reason why inflation has been on the rise as US crude oil prices topped $80 a barrel this week, with Brent surging past $83. 

The rising price of oil is putting pressure on the stock market.  Higher oil prices create more inflation, which then forces bond yields higher as bond owners demand a higher premium in compensation for their loss of buying power.  Higher bond yields increase the cost of borrowing and thereby limit credit expansion and economic growth as debt servicing costs for both consumers and corporations becomes more expensive. 

How much longer will the current rise in oil prices last?  The horoscope for oil offers some clues to this question. While there are several possible horoscopes which can be used to track the price of oil, let's use the horoscope for Brent Crude oil (September 5, 2001). 

The chart is highly activated at the moment as both Jupiter and Saturn are making important conjunctions.  A key factor behind the recent rally is that bullish Jupiter (28 Capricorn) is exactly conjunct Uranus.  Jupiter is currently retrograde and will station direct on Monday, October 18.  The periods near Jupiter stations are quite positive if it forms a close aspect with a planet in the natal chart as is the case here.  In addition, we can see that Jupiter also forms very close alignments with both the MC (10th house cusp) and the Ascendant.  These alignments have likely intensified the positive effects of this Jupiter-Uranus transit.

At the same time, however, Saturn (12 Capricorn) is exactly conjunct Neptune and therefore also in alignment with natal Mercury.  This should be a more bearish influence which may offset some of the bullish influence of the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction.  Like Jupiter, Saturn is also near the time of its direct station as it returned to normal direct motion this past Sunday, October 10. 

Clearly, there isn't any evidence of this more negative Saturn influence as the oil price has been rising for the past 8 weeks.  One possible explanation for the overshadowing of Saturn by Jupiter is that the Saturn-Neptune conjunction is a less negative influence.  Neptune is not as important here as it moves very slowly -- just 2 or 3 degrees per year -- so its placement is less unique to the horoscope.   If Saturn had been conjunct the natal Sun or the Moon in the Brent chart, then it might have had a greater impact on price.

Looking ahead, we can see that Jupiter will separate from its conjunction starting early next week, just as Saturn has done this week.  This should begin to diminish the bullish influence of Jupiter on the price of crude oil.  Therefore, the odds of a pullback in oil are increasing and will increase further next week as Jupiter resumes forward motion away from its conjunction with Uranus.  


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have generally moved sideways over the past week as inflation fears and the prospect of Fed tapering have been mitigated by the expectations of stronger growth in corporate earnings.  The choppy trading is a probable consequence of last week's Sun-Mars-Mercury conjunction, although the downside was fairly muted.

The rest of this week features a range of both bullish and bearish short term influences.  The Sun-Jupiter aspect is often bullish but the Mars-Neptune and Mercury-Chiron alignments look more bearish.  Next Wednesday's Full Moon has a bearish bias due to its alignment with Mars.  While the twin stations of Jupiter and Mercury early in the week could offer some new bullish energy into the mix, the Full Moon suggests some volatility is still likely along the way. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

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US debt ceiling melodrama

(5 October 2021) If Shakespeare had lived in Washington, DC, he might have written, 'All the world's a stage, and politicians are merely players in it.'  Fortunately for us, he didn't but we are nonetheless stuck with the predictable melodrama of US politics.  And so the debt ceiling negotiations are again taking center stage as the Democrats and Republicans are forced to find ways to compromise without risking a catastrophic debt default by the October 18 deadline.

While nobody really expects a US government default to happen, financial markets have become volatile in recent days as the debt ceiling talks are now inextricably intertwined with negotiations involving the two Biden infrastructure bills.   Markets have largely discounted the fiscal stimulus from these bills so there is some downside risk in the event that these bills are not passed.  Without these major spending bills, the post-pandemic recovery would be more fragile and thus vulnerable to market disappointment. 

We can see the current political tension in Washington in the US horoscope.   The government is traditionally symbolized by the Sun so any tense aspects involving malefic planets (especially Mars and Saturn) will tend to coincide with difficult situations.  This week there is a fairly rare triple conjunction of Mercury, Sun and Mars which will form a square alignment with natal Sun (22 Gemini).  This Mars-centered configuration suggests significant tension with government and leaders and is one very good reason why the debt ceiling talks are unlikely to resolve quickly. 

Resolution becomes more likely only after the Mercury-Sun-Mars conjunction has passed exact on Saturday, October 8.  Until then, all three planets will be sources of stress on the Sun (government).  Based on this factor alone, markets are therefore more likely to remain volatile for the rest of this week, although other offsetting factors could remain significant.

The other planet to watch in this respect is Saturn.  Saturn is due to station direct at 12 Capricorn on Sunday, October 10 while in an exact alignment with natal Venus in the USA chart. Venus symbolizes harmony and economic well-being while Saturn represents disruption and disappointment.  Together, these planets form a potentially toxic brew of dissension which makes any quick resolution to the debt ceiling talks unlikely in the near term.  The outlook may improve after October 10, although its negative effects could linger a while longer. 


Weekly Market Forecast

While it is a very remote chance, a US debt default would likely cause a stock market crash.  This is one very obvious reason why it will never happen.   Nonetheless, the fear of a default could well spook markets further in the near term. 

The Sun-Mars conjunction in sidereal Virgo with retrograde Mercury backing into a triple conjunction suggests volatility is more likely to persist than to subside.  But while the US may be locked in the uncertainty of Saturn and Mars here, optimism is more likely to emerge after the Jupiter direct station on October 18. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

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Congress in debt ceiling stalemate as Mercury turns retrograde

(28 September 2021) Negotiations in Washington, DC ground to halt today as the two parties could not agree on a way forward to raise the debt ceiling.  With the Republicans digging in their heels against a bill which would raise the debt ceiling, odds of a government shutdown were rising before the Thursday deadline. 

And if things really go off the rails, there is there the possibility that the government will run out of money as the deadline for a US debt default is October 18.   And just to ratchet up the pressure some more, liberal Democrats are now threatening to vote against the bipartisan infrastructure bill if centrist Democrats vote against Biden's larger $3.5 Trillion stimulus bill. 

The melodrama in Washington shouldn't be too surprising given that Mercury turned retrograde in the early morning hours on Monday.  As we know, things often go haywire whenever Mercury, the planet of communication and commerce, reverses its normal forward motion and turns retrograde and moves backwards in the sky during its three week cycle. 

Against this backdrop of government dysfunction, US stocks tumbled 2% today as bond yields spiked on fears that rising inflation would force the Fed to tighten its monetary policy sooner than expected.  The current pullback is more or less in line with our expectations since we have seen an intensification of bearish Saturn energy in recent weeks.   Stocks peaked in early September just a few days before the exact Jupiter-Pluto alignment.  Once that bullish alignment began to lose its strength, the more bearish influence of Saturn took over.  Saturn is due to form a 45-degree alignment with Neptune in October just as it stations direct on October 10. 

Saturn alignments with outer planets like Neptune tend to be bearish, even if the aspect is a minor one, as is the case here with the 45-degree angle.  The current configuration is more likely to be bearish because Saturn is just days away from its annual direct station.   Planetary stations are especially powerful and can be pivotal market events for good or ill depending on the nature of the planet involved and the direction of the prevailing trend.  Saturn tends to be more bearish around the times of its stations (both retrograde and direct) while Mercury has a bearish bias near the date of its retrograde station.

This week could see additional selling as Mars opposes Chiron and Mercury squares Pluto.  While the recently-discovered Chiron (in 1977) is not a traditional Vedic planet, it nonetheless has observable effects so that its positive aspects tend to be bullish while its negative aspects with malefics like Saturn and Mars tend to be bearish.  And while neither Mercury nor Pluto are malefic planets, the square aspects can be tense and thereby increases the odds of some negative fallout later in the week, especially in light of the background Saturn influence. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

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China's Evergrande crisis roils markets

 (21 September 2021)  Global stock markets are sharply lower this week as Evergrande, China's second largest real estate developer, teeters on the brink of bankruptcy.  While default now seems inevitable, the more important question is whether the Chinese government will provide a bailout.  Even a partial bailout of its $300 billion in debt would help not only the 1.5 million customers who invested their savings in new homes, but it also would reduce the risk of financial contagion.  Evergrande is large enough that a disorderly default would damage the Chinese economy and therefore could have ramifications for investors all over the world. 

The Evergrande crisis can be seen as a part of an ongoing attempt of the Xi government to tighten regulations throughout the financial sector.  Earlier this year, the CCP imposed stricter anti-trust regulations on tech and internet companies such as Alibaba.  The regulatory initiative is seen as a part of a campaign to bring the free-wheeling Chinese economy under closer political control by the CCP. 

Chinese stocks have suffered the consequences of the new restrictions this year as stocks have fallen more than 25% from their February high.  The decline can be seen in the horoscope of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE - December 19, 1990, 9.30 a.m.).  Very quickly we can see the problem in the chart: Saturn, the planet of loss and constraint, is exactly conjunct the Ascendant at 13 degrees of sidereal Capricorn.  Saturn is the most bearish of all planets so its alignments usually coincide with declines, especially when they involve important chart points like the Sun, Moon or the Ascendant. 

Interestingly, Chinese stocks began their long descent in February just as Saturn was also transiting the Ascendant during its normal forward motion.  Now retrograde, it is once again crossing over the Ascendant and as stocks are similarly mired in a period of pessimism.  

We can also see that the apparent peak of this crisis is occurring while three malefics, Saturn, Rahu, and Mars, are all in 120 degree alignments with the SSE Ascendant. In the short term, further downside is possible when Mars exactly aligns with Saturn and the Ascendant later this week and early next week.  Chinese stocks are likely to remain under pressure for a while yet since Saturn isn't due to end its retrograde cycle until October 10.  A rebound of some size becomes much more likely after Saturn makes its final conjunction with the SSE Ascendant in November. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Given this week's ongoing Saturn-Rahu-Mars alignment, US and global stocks are also vulnerable to further downside in the coming days.  Tomorrow's FOMC statement could well see a relief rally, however, as Mercury enters sidereal Libra and aligns with Jupiter and the Moon.  But downside risk will be somewhat elevated as we approach the Mercury retrograde station next Monday. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

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Stocks fall on possible Biden tax hike

 (14 September 2021) After their relentless summer rally, US stocks have trended lower in recent days as investors have begun to factor in the possibility of significant tax hikes needed to pay for the ambitious $3.5 Trillion Biden budget proposal. While it is far from clear if the proposal will pass the Senate in its current form given the Democrats narrow majority, markets generally don't like taxes as they directly impact the corporate bottom line which is the key driver of stock prices.  This market weakness is not too surprising given the current major planetary alignments that I outlined last week.

Stocks started selling the day after the Labor Day holiday while Jupiter was approaching its closest alignment with Pluto.  I thought we might have seen a bit more upside last week from the bullish entry of Venus into Libra on Monday, September 6.  But while some international markets were up on Monday, any positive influence was already largely spent by the US opening on Tuesday. The theoretical maximum of the bullish influence occurred on Friday, September 10 but stocks drifted mostly lower that day.  Since both Jupiter and Pluto are slow-moving planets, their moment of maximum influence should be understood as a multi-day window rather than one specific day. 

As Jupiter is now separating from its 30-degree alignment with Pluto, there may be less bullish sentiment to keep a bid under stocks.  In addition, Saturn seems likely to become more powerful in the near term as it approaches its 45-degree alignment with Neptune. 

While neither of these alignments conform to standard aspecting rules in traditional Vedic astrology, they nonetheless are worth watching.  Saturn alignments with outer planets like Neptune are often bearish in their influence, especially when either planet is near a planetary station.  That is very much the case here as Saturn is backing into its direct station slated for October 10. 

And if we examine the NYSE horoscope, we can see the pessimistic Saturn influence is also likely to be further heightened.  Saturn is due to end its retrograde cycle at 12 Capricorn and this will form an exact 135-degree alignment with the natal Mars in the chart.  Since both Mars and Saturn are malefic planets, there is a higher likelihood of declines around the time of the direct station in early October.  

The periods near Saturn stations -- both direct and retrograde -- aren't always bearish but the odds shift significantly towards the bears whenever it aligns closely with another planet. 

Therefore, the next few weeks could see some increased volatility.  Caveat Emptor. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

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