Oil tells all: markets take their cue from crude

(25 January 2016) Are we there yet?  Investors are wondering if this January decline might finally be done with or if this is only be a nasty prelude to a more tumultuous financial year in 2016.  My assessment of the planetary influences suggest there is a higher than normal risk of more downside in both the short and medium term. There are several useful charts in this respect but perhaps none is more important these days than the chart for crude oil futures. 

As we have seen, the stock market is currently being driven by oil prices.  If oil falls, stocks also fall soon after.  One reason for this close correlation is that oil prices have fallen so far that many oil companies are in financial trouble.  Most have laid off workers, and some are on the verge of insolvency.  In particular, some US-based companies borrowed heavily for capital-intensive shale fracking operations.  As these companies go under, they will no longer be able to repay their debt and hence the banks that loaned them money will also be in trouble.  The financial contagion will thereby be released upon a vulnerable economy.   As the world's pre-eminent commodity, crude oil prices are also seen as a proxy for the state of the global economy.  The falling prices in the oil market are signaling that the economy is slowing as China and other emerging markets cut their consumption levels amid rising debt. 

The bottom line here is that as oil goes, so goes the stock market.  If oil falls further, it seems very likely that stocks will also fall further.  A rebound in oil either through tightening supply or increasing demand, or conceivably a fall in the US Dollar would give a boost to the stock market.  So what is the price outlook for oil?

Previously, I looked at the Brent Crude Oil horoscope and found strong evidence for depressed prices in 2015, 2016 and beyond.  Not surprisingly perhaps, a quick look at the first trade horoscope for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the NYMEX also shows why the oil market is so weak at the moment.  As is so often the case, the planetary cause of falling prices is Saturn.  Transiting Saturn (19 Scorpio) is in a tight conjunction with Jupiter (17 Scorpio) in the 7th house of the chart opposite the Ascendant,.  Secondarily, Saturn is also conjunct nearby Uranus (15 Scorpio). 

Saturn was exactly conjunct Jupiter two weeks ago when crude oil fell through support at $35 -- a moment of maximum affliction by Saturn. While Saturn's bearish influence may be lessening to some extent since it is now past exact, it may not travel far enough away from Jupiter to make much of a difference in terms of overall trend.  Saturn is due to station retrograde at 22 Scorpio in late March and then come back and conjoin that natal Jupiter once again in June.   We could easily see another push lower then.  As the most distant of the observable planets, Saturn only moves 12 degrees per year including a four-month long retrograde period and thus its conjunctions can take many months to play out.  It therefore seems likely that Saturn's proximity to natal Jupiter will mean that oil will fall further in 2016, possibly reaching that $20 target that many analysts have highlighted.  Saturn stations direct in August at 15 Scorpio and will then conjoin that Jupiter once again in September.  As a general rule, Saturn conjunctions are bearish for prices for most assets. 

To be sure, the entirety of the collapse of oil prices since 2014 cannot be solely accounted for by the movements of Saturn. The initial price decline was also associated with Ketu (South Lunar Node) which conjoined Mars (2 Aries) in mid-2014 at the start of the decline below $100 and then later, in part, through its conjunctions with Mercury (20 Pisces) and Sun (15 Pisces).  That said, these simple transits do not account for all of the variation in the price of oil but they play a large role in determining if oil is rising, falling or going sideways. 

The near term outlook looks challenging.  Saturn may be losing some of its negativity but the planets this week argue for more downside.  The late week transit of Mars (19 Libra) opposite the natal Venus (19 Aries) in the WTI horoscope may well coincide with significant downside, especially since it also aligns with Saturn.  February could see some improvement but the gains may come in fits and starts and probably won't be enough to change the overall bearish outlook for oil.  March seems a lot more difficult as Saturn stations and begins to move back towards Jupiter again. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks bounced last week as crude oil finally reversed its downturn.  US Stocks rallied 2% on the week after making a potentially significant intraday low on Wednesday while Indian stocks enjoyed a more modest gain.  While I was somewhat bearish in my bias in last week's market forecast, I was uncertain if the ongoing alignment of retrograde Mercury with Pluto, Uranus, Saturn and Mars would yield declines last week or this week. 

This week is off to a mixed start as Asian markets were somewhat higher while European stocks finished a bit lower.  US Stocks are down by less than 0.5% and crude is down by 3% as I write this post.   I still think there is a greater risk of declines this week even if we get some upside along the way.  We will see Mercury station direct later on Monday (EST) so that could change the mood of the market.  And the Mars-Saturn alignment will tighten on Thursday and Friday so that may be a more likely time when stocks will fall.  Interestingly, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to issue its latest policy statement on the economy on Wednesday.  For more details and a longer term forecast for February and beyond, please subscribe to my MVA Investor Newsletter.

The China Syndrome: the world's economic engine stalls

(18 January 2016) Financial markets continue to look shaky as the 'China Syndrome' threatens the global economy.  After many years of impressive economic growth, China is showing more signs that its once-powerful economic engine is sputtering. This is one of the main reasons why crude oil has fallen below $30 a barrel and most stock markets have declined so far in 2016.  As China goes, so goes the global economy.   If China is forced to further devalue its currency to boost its exports and protect jobs, we can expect more trouble for global stock markets this year.

But is China really headed for a "hard landing" whereby their economy contracts sharply or perhaps even enters a full-blown recession?  Previously, I looked at the horoscope of the Shanghai stock exchange and found ample evidence for a significant decline in January.  The main Shanghai Index is has now fallen below 3000, a key technical support level.  Some analysts are now suggesting more downside to perhaps its previous low of 2000.  My assessment of this chart suggests that more downside is very likely this year.  The Saturn retrograde station in March will align closely with the Moon this chart, while the Uranus station (0 Aries) in the summer will square the natal Saturn (0 Capricorn).

Significantly, we can see a similar pattern of affliction this year in the national chart of China (1 October 1949).  Although stock market movements are only indirectly related to the national horoscope, economic conditions are usually reflected in the chart, especially when they diverge from the norm.  This is definitely the case in 2015 and 2016 as transiting Saturn (18 Scorpio) squares its natal position in the 8th house.  Saturn in the 8th house in Leo is a very conservative influence and reflects the necessity of maintaining strict political control over that society.  Since Saturn is the ruler of the chart (since it rules the 1st house Capricorn), the sense of restriction and conservatism is even more pronounced. 

To be sure, the aspect from Jupiter indicates that China benefits greatly from this reliance of tradition and order.  The stifling of political dissent and opposition to the one-party state has forced the population to focus on building the economy as a patriotic duty.  But when transiting Saturn casts its full-strength square aspect from Scorpio to natal Saturn, even this positive Jupiter influence is likely to be overwhelmed.  Frustration and national anxiety are likely to manifest with scandals (8th house) popping up with more frequency.  Recent months has seen a series of hedge fund managers and other highly placed investors disappearing for a time, presumably to be "interviewed" by the government.  Last summer's stock market rout was deeply embarrassing to Beijing despite issuing edicts which banned short selling and forced major banks and brokerages to buy stocks in order to support prices.

The problem for China in 2016 is that Saturn will station at 22 Scorpio in March and then move backwards for the next four months.  It will thereby maintain is aspect to natal Saturn and this will likely keep the economic pressure on.  Saturn is first and foremost a restrictive influence, so all this Saturn energy will likely see the economy contract further this year.  Of course, Saturn also rules Aquarius, which is the ruler of the 2nd house of wealth in the national chart of China.  This ongoing Saturn transit will therefore likely see the net wealth of the country also decline, or possibly expand at a slower rate, at least for the duration of the transit.  The slowdown is more likely to be disruptive to society since both Uranus (22 Pisces) and Pluto (21 Sagittarius) align with the nodes, Rahu and Ketu.

I would expect China's economy to continue to struggle throughout 2016 so a hard landing looks inevitable.  We will also likely see more authoritarian actions by the government as Beijing attempts to tame the capitalist tiger.  Transiting Rahu's conjunction to natal Saturn in July will likely highlight another period of extreme instability.  Saturn's square aspect will finally begin to separate and diminish in the fall. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks fell again last week as crude oil extended its slide to below $30 a barrel for the first time since 2004.  US stocks fell 2% as the Dow finished at 15,988 while markets in India  also lost more than 2% as the BSE Sensex ended the week at 24,455.   In last week's stock market forecast, I thought we might have got more gains on Thursday's Sun-Mercury-Jupiter-Rahu alignment.  Thursday was higher in the US but stocks were lower for most of the rest of the week.   As I noted, however, the presence of unpredictable Rahu (North Lunar Node) somewhat lessened the favourability of this pattern. 

This week has started off modestly negative in Asia and Europe as US markets are closed for the MLK holiday.   There are no clear planetary indications for this week although it is hard to be optimistic.  The ongoing Jupiter-Rahu conjunction is still very close this week (and next) and that may make the prospects for a rebound more unlikely.  Another source of instability could be Mercury retrograde which conjoins Pluto and aligns with Uranus late in the week.   I'm not sure it will correlate with much downside this week, however.  It's possible of course, but the problem is that Mercury will then align with planetary bad boys Mars and Saturn next week.  This alignment looks even worse so stocks could be under more pressure.  For more details on these and other alignments, please check out my subscriber newsletter.

Is 2016 going to be as bad as 2008?

(11 January 2016) Stocks fell sharply around the world last week as China's financial turmoil threatened to undermine the fragile economic recovery.  As China's devaluation of the Yuan sideswiped markets, US stocks had their worst start to the year in history falling 6% as the Dow closed at 16,346.  Indian stocks also slumped 4% as the Sensex fell below the key 25,000 level.  This outcome was in keeping with my stock forecast from last week as I thought the Mars-Mercury square aspect would likely cause some significant damage.  This was not just any old Mars-Mercury square, of course, but a particularly nasty one since Mercury turned retrograde on the very same day the 90 degree angle was exact!  Asian markets have extended their decline on Monday at this time of writing although European stocks are mixed.

To be sure, the New Year is off to a shaky start.   Is the six-year long bull market in stocks finally over?  One now reads more gloomy forecasts in the media that suggest that 2016 might even be a repeat of 2008 when the world economy came to brink of collapse.  My previous research on this subject suggests the odds are very high that most stock markets will decline significantly in 2016 and we could well see the end to this bull market in the US and Europe.  It is already over in the stock markets of many emerging economies.  This is evident in the New Year's horoscope and the annual May horoscope of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).  One of the most useful tools in financial astrology is the solar return chart, i.e. the horoscope that maps the position of the planets on the birthday of a stock exchange or stock index.  The NYSE 2015 Solar Return chart (Varshphal) looked quite bearish given the close Saturn-Sun square aspect.  This strongly points toward a negative performance of US stocks between May 2015 and May 2016.  The Dow hit its all-time of 18,351 just two days after its 223rd birthday on 17th May 2015.  Currently, it is still just about 10%  below that level now despite the recent turbulence.  But if my assessment of the Solar Return chart is correct, the Dow will remain well below its high by the end of the Solar Return chart in May 2016, and probably lower than its current level of 16,346 for the Dow. 

The next twelve period from May 2016 to May 2017 is also strongly pointing to more downside.  On the plus side, SR Saturn (20 Scorpio) is no longer aspecting the natal Sun (6 Taurus) but it does form a troubling alignment with both SR Mercury (20 Aries) and SR Jupiter (19 Leo).  Mercury and Jupiter are usually sources of optimism but Saturn's alignment here may effectively block that from manifesting for the next year.  And depending on the accuracy of the exact time of this chart (I use 10.10 but there are many others) and hence the Ascendant position, Saturn may also be exactly aligning with the Ascendant. 

An additional problem for this chart is that malefic Mars is closely opposite the Sun and Mercury.   Like Saturn, Mars is associated with declines especially when it aspects key planets like the Sun or Moon.  Whereas Saturn is pessimistic and depressing of sentiment, Mars is associated with fast-paced and shocking changes.  For its part, the SR Moon is aspected by disruptive Ketu.  It also aligns with the natal Mars. This increases the probability of not just a down year, but a year that will be volatile and unstable. 

Whether or not 2016 will be a repeat of the crisis of 2008 is hard to predict on the basis of this single chart.  But overall I do think there is considerable risk of a sizable decline in world markets in 2016 that is at least reminiscent of the level of financial chaos we saw eight years ago.  As Mark Twain said, "history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."


Weekly Market Forecast

Despite Monday's large decline in Chinese markets, the planets look bullish this week.  Tuesday's alignment of Venus with Uranus and Pluto is often positive for stocks and commodities and should boost sentiment early in the week.  Thursday's Sun-Mercury conjunction happens to coincide exactly with a nice aspect from Jupiter.  Although both Mercury and Jupiter are retrograde here alongside the often unpredictable Rahu, this four-planet combination still looks good. 

Once the Sun-Mercury conjunction separates late on Thursday and Friday, there may be less positive energy available, however.  Readers seeking more details and a longer term forecast may check out my subscriber investor newsletter.

Global markets decline after China's plunge stops trading

(4 January 2016)  2016 has started off on the wrong foot as global stocks declined sharply Monday following a 7% plunge in the Chinese market that triggered circuit breakers and an early closing of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.  The decline is pretty much what I expected given the very difficult planetary alignment this week.  As I briefly mentioned in last week's market forecast and elaborated more fully in my subscriber newsletter, the Mars-Mercury square aspect was more likely to correlate with declines here because it was in effect for an unusually long time due to the approach of Mercury's retrograde station on Tuesday, January 5th.  

The retrograde station is the day in which Mercury stops its normal forward motion and then begins to reverse its direction in the sky from our perspective on Earth.  The Mercury retrograde cycle occurs every three months and lasts for about 20 days.   While its retrograde cycle is traditionally associated with miscommunication and failed plans, I have found the days around its stations to be more specifically relevant to the financial markets.  If Mercury reverses its direction (i.e. stations) while making a close aspect with a malefic planets like we got last week and this week with Mars, then declines are: 1) much more likely and 2) more likely to be large.   But it is important to note that Mercury retrograde stations are a two-way street.   If they occur while Mercury forms a close aspect with a benefic planet like Venus or Jupiter, then stocks are likely to rally higher.

We can see how the Shanghai Stock Exchange chart got hit hard by this square of Mars (6 Libra) and Mercury (6 Capricorn) as it activated the North Lunar Node, Rahu (4 Capricorn) quite closely.  Mars also cast a very close and malefic 8th house quincunx aspect (210 degrees) to the natal Mars (5 Taurus) within one degree.  Mars-Mars aspects are also usually high probability bearish indicators.  By themselves, these factors would likely coincide with a significant down day of perhaps 2-3%.  However, there is bigger affliction here that likely explained why China's stocks fell limit down 7%.  Transiting Rahu (0 Virgo) is exactly aspecting natal Saturn (0 Capricorn) by its 120 degree aspect.  Rahu-Saturn aspects are usually bad news for stocks just as Mars-Mercury aspects are.  But since both Rahu and Saturn are slower moving planets, they are more likely to represent deeper declines as well as down trends that last for several days, if not weeks. 

While the steep decline on first trading day of 2016 seems to be a bad omen for the year, there are other ways of assessing the probable direction of stocks for the year to come.  In my New Year's Day chart analysis, I suggested that this same planetary alignment at midnight on New Year's Day could be a negative influence for the year.  This was due to the slow-moving Mars-Mercury aspect which was still very close to exact on January 1st. 

The New Year's Day horoscope arguably has a greater symbolic importance for annual collective sentiment than the outcome of the first day of trading.  In that sense, this very bearish Mars-Mercury aspect has now taken on a greater significance for the year as a whole.  This is another reason to expect a more difficult year in the stock market in 2016, particularly in US and Europe which were only down slightly in 2015.  Emerging markets like India are unlikely to escape this negative influence, although the percentage declines may be somewhat less since they already suffered greater losses in 2015.   You can find a more detailed forecast for the weeks and months ahead in my weekly subscriber newsletter.

We could see more downside tomorrow and even into Wednesday as the Mars aspect to Mercury is still within range.  However, we could see some changes in the second half of the week.  By Wednesday, Mars will be separating from Mercury and the Sun will align with Pluto and Uranus.  This offers more positive outcomes although even here the Pluto influence is a big question mark.  Thursday and Friday's Venus-Saturn conjunction looks bad for assets like gold but could be better for stocks.  I would not rule out any particular outcome this week given the high density of close multi-planet aspects in play here.  It should be a fascinating and volatile week. 

Is the sun setting on oil? An astrological price analysis

(28 December 2015)  It is very tough times for the oil industry these days.  After trading north of $100 a barrel for much of the past five years, crude oil prices have collapsed since mid-2014 as OPEC increased supply while demand has fallen off a cliff.  Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate now both trade for less than $40, a level last seen in the depths of the economic meltdown in 2008.  The decade-long bull market in commodities like oil was closely tied with the emergence of China as an economic superpower but now that China is slowing, crude oil is suddenly much less valuable. 

The recovery of the US Dollar since 2014 is another part of the story since oil is priced in Dollars.  And if that wasn't enough, the historic climate change agreement recently signed in Paris suggests there may be a long term move away from fossil fuels.  While carbon taxes and pledges to cut oil consumption may not have an immediate impact on prices, it is an added source of concern for the oil industry.   Is the sun really setting on crude oil and will prices keep falling as energy use shifts away from fossil fuels?  And will a prolonged economic slump also depress prices as recent OPEC reports have suggested?  Let's see what the stars say.

Previously, I have made some price forecasts based on the US-based WTI chart.  This week I thought I would revisit the oil question using the Brent horoscope.  Brent crude (from the North Sea) was first traded on the NYMEX exchange in New York on September 5th 2001.  The time of the first trade is a matter of some debate, although we may use 9.30 a.m. for the moment. 

What is striking about this chart is how the dasha sequence does seem to offer some insights on previous price movements.  Since it's first trade in 2001, Brent crude has been in the Mercury major dasha period.  This period will continue until April 2016 when the Ketu major dasha period will begin.  Mercury is a benefic planet by nature and it is well placed in the chart in the 1st house in its own sign of Virgo opposite the Moon.  This long term Mercury influence is one reason why prices have generally been elevated for most of this period.  In 2001, Brent was trading at $26.  Despite the recent bear market decline, it is still well above that level and hence essentially validates that benefic Mercury influence.

Even more telling, however, are the effects of the minor dasha periods.  What would we expect from these shorter minor periods? One of the core principles of the Vedic approach to financial astrology is that we would expect price increases during the minor periods of benefic planets like Venus and Jupiter and declines during the periods of malefics like Mars and Saturn.  We might also adjust those expectations depending on the specific condition of each minor dasha lord in the chart. 

Here we can see how clearly the planets appear to correlate with price movements.  The Venus minor period (Mercury-Venus) ran from September 2002 to July 2005 and should have been quite positive since both Mercury and Venus are benefic planets and Venus is well-placed in this chart in the 11th house symbolizing gains. Venus loses some of its possible upside impact perhaps from the 3rd house/sextile aspect from malefic Saturn but it still looks good overall.  Not surprisingly, the price of Brent doubled in this three-year period from $28 to $57. 

Prices continued to generally rise through the Sun and Moon minor periods from 2005 to 2007 as the Mercury-Moon ended when prices had risen above $80.  While the Sun is usually treated as a natural malefic in Vedic astrology, I have found it to be a more neutral influence.  In the Brent horoscope, the Sun is in the 12th house of loss (not good) but it is strengthened because it is in its own sign of Leo.   The Moon is a benefic and is further strengthened because it is aspected by Mercury and it rules the 11th house of gains (Cancer).  It does receive an aspect from Mars so that can create some problems (e.g.  the sharp decline in late 2006) but overall it looks fairly well-placed. 

The Mercury-Mars period is perhaps the most complex.  A lot happened during this period from October 2007 to October 2008.  Prices went parabolic in early 2008 and created a what is known as a "blow-off top" which was then followed by a shocking decline in prices towards the end of 2008 as the financial markets crashed.  Mars is a malefic, of course, so we can't be too surprised that the net outcome of its period was in fact a decline.    Moreover, it is closely conjunct Ketu in the 4th house which is another malefic planet in this context.  So the awkward question is: how could prices have temporarily exploded higher to $147 by July during this supposedly malefic Mars minor period?  

First, I think it is important to remember that dashas do not explain everything.  No single astrological factor can do that.  Dashas are still subject to the varying influences of transits, progressions, returns, and any number of other factors we might bring into consideration.   Secondly, Mars does have some strength and ability to do good in this chart due the aspect it receives from Jupiter.  Also Mars is placed in Sagittarius, which is a sign ruled by Jupiter.  So that double Jupiter influence should be seen as a mitigating factor on Mars and hence, on its minor dasha period from Oct 2007 to Oct 2008.  But the bottom line was that Mars was malefic as prices fell during its period: the Mars period began in Oct 2007 with Brent at $85 and it ended in Oct 2008 with Brent at $65 and falling fast.

Mercury-Rahu then followed and lasted into May 2011.  Prices bottomed in December 2008 just after the Mars minor period ended, and then began a major bull market.  Also a natural malefic, Rahu is often positive for material things like prices, money, status and the like. This is all the more likely when it is associated with a benefic planet as it is here through its conjunction with benefic Jupiter.  The Rahu minor period was therefore very likely going to correlate with a gain and indeed prices almost doubled for the duration of this period from $65 in October 2008 to $115 in May 2011. 

Mercury-Jupiter came next and ran from 2011 until Aug 2013.  Jupiter is benefic and hence its influence is usually bullish.  In this case, however, prices only went sideways, staying around $110.  Jupiter's conjunction with Rahu is one possible reason why its period may have underperformed.   So while Rahu benefited from its association with Jupiter, Jupiter may have been burdened somewhat by its association with Rahu.  This is one reason why prices did not climb further during the Jupiter minor period.  We can at least say that prices did not fall. 

And the final dasha period here is Mercury-Saturn.  Saturn is perhaps the most malefic planet and its periods are more likely to create problems, although here too they can be ameliorated if associated with good planets.  But that is not the case here as Saturn is by itself in the 9th house and opposite Pluto, another unhelpful influence.  Prices crashed during this Saturn minor period from $110 in August 2013 down to their current $37.  We still have four more months of this Saturn period before Ketu begins in April.  It is important to note that prices could still recover somewhat in early 2016 without invalidating this negative Saturn effect.  The logic of Saturn's bearish dasha period would still obtain as long as Brent remained well below $110 by April 2016, and that seems quite likely.

But the outlook doesn't seem very good for Brent during the upcoming Ketu period.  Ketu is often negative influence on prices as it is seen as a more non-material or spiritual sort of energy.  The added problem here is that Ketu is with Mars.  This could make Ketu's 7-year long period quite difficult.  To be sure, there is the aspect from Jupiter which may provide for some upside along the way, but the outlook seems to confirm the more bearish forecasts that are out there on crude prices. 

That said, I would still expect a significant rally in crude during the Ketu-Venus period between September 2016 and November 2017.  Venus was very bullish during the previous Mercury period and I would expect more strength during its minor period here.  The Ketu influence may limit the gains, of course, but the trend is more likely to be positive. 

But what about the long term?  Will concern over climate change promote the shift away from oil and other fossil fuels?  Based solely on the dashas, I would say that any movement away from fossil fuels will take place gradually and in a way that does not depress prices.  The Venus major dasha period is due to begin from 2023 and last for 20 years until 2043. Venus should be bullish for Brent prices so I would expect a significant gain to take place during that 20-year period.  It is still possible that the world will gradually move away from oil but for other reasons, prices will be fairly high.  This suggests some combination of falling supply (e.g. interruption of Middle East oil) and rising demand (e.g. global economic recovery).  Another scenario would be that supply may be restricted through climate change agreements, so that could also be a way that prices move higher in the long term.

One important caveat here is that I am only considered dasha periods in this analysis.  A complete investment analysis would require proper consideration of other factors such as transits and dashas.  For more specific oil price forecasts that have a short and intermediate term focus, readers are welcome to subscribe to my weekly investment newsletter. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks moved higher ahead of the Christmas holiday last week.  US stocks climbed more than 2% with the Dow finishing at 17,552 while India's Sensex added more than 1% closing at 25,838.  This outcome was somewhat more bullish than I expected in last week's market forecast, although the Venus-Jupiter alignment towards the end of the week seemed to coincide with gains.

Stocks may have an uphill battle this week.  US and European stocks are already lower in Monday's trading at the time of writing.  Indian stocks were higher although Asia was more generally mixed.  The problem this week is that Mars is square Mercury.  This is usually bearish.  The aspect is closest on Monday and Tuesday so those days are perhaps more problematic.  The late week could see some rebound although as I mentioned last week, this is an unusually long-lasting aspect because Mercury is slowing down ahead of its retrograde station on January 5th.  The negative energy that Mars casts upon Mercury is therefore more likely to manifest for more than just one down day. 

Yellen fulfills promise as Fed finally hikes rates

(21 December 2015)  As the most powerful woman in the world, Janet Yellen fulfilled her promise and finally delivered on the long-anticipated interest rate hike last week.  The Fed Chair announced the Federal Reserve would hike rates for the first time in nine years and thereby end the experimental zero interest rate policy that was launched in the depths of the meltdown in December 2008.  The hike to 0.25% was widely seen as positive as stocks markets around the world generally rose on the news of an improving US economy.  The unassuming Ms. Yellen has certainly come a long way since her senior year in high school in 1963 as she attempts to guide the global economy back to normal after the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

We can see from Yellen's horoscope how she may be feeling confident and having things go her way for the most part at the moment.  Jupiter (at 28 Leo) is slowing down and soon to station at 29 Leo in early January.  It is therefore setting up a nice alignment with her natal Sun (27 Cancer) , Uranus (27 Taurus) and Jupiter (29 Virgo).  This is not a traditional Jupiter aspect (usually, 120 or 240 degrees) but I have found such close angular alignments (i.e. of any multiples of 30 degrees) are often reflective of the transiting planet's inherent energy.  The Jupiter influence here would likely have given Yellen confidence to act and should improve the consequences of her actions for the time around the Jupiter station. 

Looking ahead, transiting Rahu (North Lunar Node) will soon align with the aforementioned planets in her natal chart in February and March.  This could be a more challenging time for her.  Rahu tends to be disruptive of the status quo so we could be forced to adapt to fast-changing circumstances.   The Rahu-Sun alignment also suggests that she may be put on the defensive as her ego (Sun) could be undermined by developments that go against her.  Even more telling perhaps is that transiting Saturn will station retrograde at 22 Scorpio and this will be conjunct her natal Ketu (24 Scorpio).  This is usually a stressful transit and may reflect situations where her assumptions are called into question.  I would therefore expect the Fed will face some significant financial turbulence in February and especially March. 

Weekly Market Forecast

I had generally expected a rate hike on Wednesday as the Sun entered the optimistic sign of Sagittarius in the sidereal (Vedic) zodiac.  I also thought the planets generally suggested a mostly favorable market reaction to the Fed's move.  This proved to be largely correct as stocks rose in the early week and on Wednesday in the US and into Thursday in Asia and Europe.  In addition to the Sun influence, bullish Venus was also aligning with Uranus and Pluto so I had added reason to think stocks would generally rise.  Indeed, US stocks gained more than 3% into Wednesday and Indian stocks added more than 2% in the run-up to the decision.  However, stocks declined late in the week as investors took a more sober second look at the new investing reality.  In last week's stock market forecast, I had wondered if we might see some late week selling on the Mars-Jupiter alignment influence. 

This week will likely be fairly quiet due to the Christmas holiday break on Friday.  The outlook seems mixed.  Monday's trading was mostly higher as Mercury aligned with Uranus and the Moon approached its aspect with Venus.  Once the Moon-Venus aspect begins to separate around noon GMT on Tuesday, I would think markets will become somewhat weaker.  But the Venus-Jupiter alignment on Thursday suggests more upside, even if it doesn't get very far due to thin holiday trading.  Could this be the makings of a year-end Santa Claus rally?  It could be, although as I have written previously, the planets do not clearly favor a strong rally into the New Year.  Some gains are possible, but the prospect of an unusually long-lasting Mars-Mercury square aspect from December 27th to January 6th could well be an added psychological burden on investors.

Fed's Yellen in spotlight again as Sun enters Sagittarius

(14 December 2015) All eyes are on Fed Chair Janet Yellen this week as the long-awaiting rise in interest rates may finally come to pass.  After a false start in September in which the Fed apparently got scared off a hike after a sharp sell-off in world markets in August, the stage is set again for Yellen & Co. to pull the trigger and raise rates for the first time in 9 years.  The consensus view is that she will follow through this time and raise the trend-setting overnight lending rate 0.125% to 0.25%.  The larger question is what kind of language she uses to signal the pace of future hikes in 2016 and beyond.  Given the fragility of markets these days, there is a sense that she will do everything possible to downplay fears of a fast schedule of rate hikes which could wreak havoc in many financial markets. 

Interestingly, the Sun enters sidereal Sagittarius on the same day of the Fed announcement on Wednesday the 16th.  Sagittarius is a sign that is associated with optimism, and it is no coincidence that it is ruled by the planet Jupiter, which is known as the Great Benefic.  The entry of the Sun into Sagittarius may therefore reflect some optimism and confidence in the Fed decision, perhaps as Yellen emphasizes all of the positive economic indicators that justify a rate hike.  But will this then translate into a favourable market reaction to Yellen's decision?  This is a more complex question. 

First off, we can see there are no clearly negative alignments in play this week like we saw last week.  So that suggests that a major sell-off after the decision is unlikely.  But whether stocks can significantly rise after the decision is harder to predict.  

If we look at the horoscope of the Federal Reserve, we can see that some kind of bold action is very likely on Wednesday as transiting Mars (25 Virgo) will form an exact square with the natal Mars (26 Gemini) in the chart.  In the current circumstance, that suggests the Fed will raise interest rates, although it should be said that "bold" Mars-type action could be interpreted in different ways.  

Such Mars-to-Mars hard aspects are symptomatic of tense situations (yes!) and may even indicate some short-lived turmoil following the announcement.  But aside from the Mars aspect, there are no really nasty influences here so this is another reason why I would doubt any huge reaction to the decision.  Also, we can see that transiting Venus will conjoin the natal Moon in the chart.  This is a more calming influence and signifies favourable outcomes, at least from the Fed's perspective.  The last thing Yellen wants is a market sell-off or a huge Dollar rally, so that also argues for a fairly muted reaction to the announcement.  

The Fed horoscope appears much more afflicted in March when transiting Ketu exactly conjoins natal Rahu and Saturn stations in close conjunction with the natal Mercury.  I would think that March will be a time when the Fed will have to confront more pressing problems.  By contrast, this December FOMC meeting looks quite mild by comparison.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks fell across most of the world last week as investors reacted to the sharp decline in crude oil and diminishing growth prospects for the economy.  In New York,  the Dow had its worst week since August falling 3% closing at 17,265.  In India, the Sensex lost 2% closing at 25,044.   This bearish outcome was not surprising as in last week's market forecast I had noted a scary-looking Mars alignment with Uranus and Pluto in the second half of the week.  I thought we might have got more gains in the early part of the week on the Venus influence but certainly the latter part of the week did live up to its negative potential.

This week is all about the Fed, of course, and its announcement on Wednesday afternoon.   Besides the diffusely positive Sun influence, the Venus alignment with Pluto and Uranus also suggests some bullish sentiment.  Mars may cause some problems on Thursday or Friday perhaps as it approaches an alignment with Jupiter.  However, I suspect this negative Mars effect may not occur until next week.