New York ended modestly lower after the Fed cut rates 25 pts today. As predicted, the market did get a little boost leading up the announcement and also shortly after coinciding with the favourable transit of the Moon to the S&P natal Venus. The failure of the market to hold on to these gains by the close sets the stage for what will likely be more downward pressure Thursday and Friday. Friday may see a significant sell off, perhaps on the order of 2%.
Both Bombay and Tokyo both closed marginally lower Tuesday in advance of the Fed meeting. Thursday may be fairly quiet but look for selling to pick up for Friday.
The Euro bounced back a little and closed above 1.56. This was in keeping with my expectation. There's a good chance for further upward movement Thursday.
Oil fell further today closing at $114. I had wondered if there would be a pause in the decline, but this is proof that we can look forward to a fairly sharp pullback as Mars moves deeper into Cancer. There is a chance for some sort of snapback rally, perhaps on Friday, but this will be short-lived and probably won't last til the close. $110 is very possible by the end of the week.
As forecast, Gold also fell Tuesday closing at $865. Prices will likely be lower by Friday, perhaps near $850..
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
NY quiet ahead of Fed meeting: US dollar rises
New York edged lower in anticipation of tomorrow's Fed meeting. The transiting Moon will be at 13 Aquarius at the time of the mid-afternoon announcement, which puts it in the neighbourhood of the S&P Venus in the 10th house. Other things being equal, this is a good placement that might give the market a little boost. And yet, the Mars in the second degree of Cancer aspecting the 1792 Jupiter suggests that any gain will be short-lived. The market may wait until Thursday or Friday to sell off to any extent.
Bombay is coming off a bullish Tuesday that saw the Sensex up 2% to 17,400. Another up day is very possible Wednesday as transiting Sun comes under the helpful influence of the natal Jupiter in the BSE-100 chart. This may push the Sensex over some key moving averages and give sentiment a boost. If the market only closes slightly above these levels, then the bullish signal will remain to be confirmed. A correction is only possible for Friday or perhaps Monday.
As forecast, the Euro headed lower as it closed today at 1.5575. Look for the sell off to continue tomorrow, although prices may firm up for the end of the week.
Oil plunged over $3 Tuesday and closed at $115.62 as my prediction for a major correction was partially borne out. Wednesday doesn't look obviously bad, so it's possible that current prices may hold, at least until Thursday or Friday when they will certainly turn lower again.
Gold closed down $18 to $876, as per my bearish prediction. Prices could hold up Wednesday around here, but by Friday, look for lower lows.
Bombay is coming off a bullish Tuesday that saw the Sensex up 2% to 17,400. Another up day is very possible Wednesday as transiting Sun comes under the helpful influence of the natal Jupiter in the BSE-100 chart. This may push the Sensex over some key moving averages and give sentiment a boost. If the market only closes slightly above these levels, then the bullish signal will remain to be confirmed. A correction is only possible for Friday or perhaps Monday.
As forecast, the Euro headed lower as it closed today at 1.5575. Look for the sell off to continue tomorrow, although prices may firm up for the end of the week.
Oil plunged over $3 Tuesday and closed at $115.62 as my prediction for a major correction was partially borne out. Wednesday doesn't look obviously bad, so it's possible that current prices may hold, at least until Thursday or Friday when they will certainly turn lower again.
Gold closed down $18 to $876, as per my bearish prediction. Prices could hold up Wednesday around here, but by Friday, look for lower lows.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of Apr 28 - May 2
Stocks in New York finished modestly higher last week, contrary to expectations. It now appears that the stationing Saturn will need the help of the inner planets to form a square in order to push prices down which happens at the end of week. Another potential bearish influence may come from Mars, which on Monday enters sidereal Cancer, its sign of debilitation. The major indexes are approaching the upper end of their recent trading ranges as the Dow starts this week at 12,891 and the S&P at 1397.
I think there is a chance that stocks can hold on to these recent gains in the early part of the week but Thursday and Friday look negative and are likely to take the averages down. Overall, I think the market will finish lower for the week. The key factor in all of this is the effect of Mars entering Cancer. After spending the past six months in Gemini, the ingress of Mars into Cancer will introduce a new variable into the mix. It's possible that this new planetary equation may push markets down on Monday since Mars is the dispositor for all the inner planets -- Sun, Mercury and Venus. If markets drop Monday, then this would substantially increase the prospects for a negative week. As an added bearish factor, tr Mars will squares the natal Jupiter in the NYSE 1792 chart.
Bombay is coming off another bullish week closing at an impressive 17,125, as it capitalized on the tr Venus conjunction to the natal Moon in the IFN ETF chart. I think the Mars aspect to the natal Uranus will cause a sudden sell-off Monday or Tuesday. The further motion of Mars into Cancer is likely to create negative momentum to the market through the week so we're likely to see markets fall from current levels by Friday.
Tokyo was also up significantly last week and opens Monday at 13,863. The TSE exceeded last week's forecast from the surprising strength of the Venus-Rahu conjunction. While this is often a negative influence, the exact aspect from tr Jupiter to its dispositor Mars gave a big boost to the tr Venus. Since the TSE chart has 3 Cancer rising, the approach of Mars this week points to an increase in volume and volatility. I am also forecasting a decline here. Friday looks like the worst day.
As forecast, the Euro did hit 1.60 last week although it failed to hang on to gains. It starts the week above 1.56. This pullback was expected although we had thought it arrived a few days ahead of schedule. I expect this weakness to continue this week, as the Euro may fall to 1.53 or below at some point.
Oil closed higher least week as forecast, reaching as high as $119 and closing above $118. I am expecting oil to fall this week, perhaps sharply, as Venus conjoins the natal Mars in the futures chart and Mars begins to channel its debilitated energy to the Moon-Saturn conjunction in Libra. While there is a question of when the bearishness of Mars will manifest since the aspect will not perfect for another two weeks (May 13), I think the worsening condition of transiting Venus will be enough to push prices down. Tr Venus falls under the aspect of the natal Ketu early in the week, and by the end of the week it opposes the natal Saturn. That's more than enough constraint to correct prices back under $115, perhaps even lower to $110.
Like the Euro, the sell off in Gold started a little earlier than expected, as it closed at $889, falling almost 3% for the week. I was correct in noting the possible bearish effect of the tr Mars opposition to the natal Venus on Friday, as prices fell sharply. I expect the sell off to continue as tr Venus falls under the natal Saturn in the GLD ETF chart, while tr Mars aspects the natal Venus. This has the potential for a sharp decline, especially Monday and Friday. We may see a close below $850 this week. This would put Gold in striking distance of its 200 day moving average.
I think there is a chance that stocks can hold on to these recent gains in the early part of the week but Thursday and Friday look negative and are likely to take the averages down. Overall, I think the market will finish lower for the week. The key factor in all of this is the effect of Mars entering Cancer. After spending the past six months in Gemini, the ingress of Mars into Cancer will introduce a new variable into the mix. It's possible that this new planetary equation may push markets down on Monday since Mars is the dispositor for all the inner planets -- Sun, Mercury and Venus. If markets drop Monday, then this would substantially increase the prospects for a negative week. As an added bearish factor, tr Mars will squares the natal Jupiter in the NYSE 1792 chart.
Bombay is coming off another bullish week closing at an impressive 17,125, as it capitalized on the tr Venus conjunction to the natal Moon in the IFN ETF chart. I think the Mars aspect to the natal Uranus will cause a sudden sell-off Monday or Tuesday. The further motion of Mars into Cancer is likely to create negative momentum to the market through the week so we're likely to see markets fall from current levels by Friday.
Tokyo was also up significantly last week and opens Monday at 13,863. The TSE exceeded last week's forecast from the surprising strength of the Venus-Rahu conjunction. While this is often a negative influence, the exact aspect from tr Jupiter to its dispositor Mars gave a big boost to the tr Venus. Since the TSE chart has 3 Cancer rising, the approach of Mars this week points to an increase in volume and volatility. I am also forecasting a decline here. Friday looks like the worst day.
As forecast, the Euro did hit 1.60 last week although it failed to hang on to gains. It starts the week above 1.56. This pullback was expected although we had thought it arrived a few days ahead of schedule. I expect this weakness to continue this week, as the Euro may fall to 1.53 or below at some point.
Oil closed higher least week as forecast, reaching as high as $119 and closing above $118. I am expecting oil to fall this week, perhaps sharply, as Venus conjoins the natal Mars in the futures chart and Mars begins to channel its debilitated energy to the Moon-Saturn conjunction in Libra. While there is a question of when the bearishness of Mars will manifest since the aspect will not perfect for another two weeks (May 13), I think the worsening condition of transiting Venus will be enough to push prices down. Tr Venus falls under the aspect of the natal Ketu early in the week, and by the end of the week it opposes the natal Saturn. That's more than enough constraint to correct prices back under $115, perhaps even lower to $110.
Like the Euro, the sell off in Gold started a little earlier than expected, as it closed at $889, falling almost 3% for the week. I was correct in noting the possible bearish effect of the tr Mars opposition to the natal Venus on Friday, as prices fell sharply. I expect the sell off to continue as tr Venus falls under the natal Saturn in the GLD ETF chart, while tr Mars aspects the natal Venus. This has the potential for a sharp decline, especially Monday and Friday. We may see a close below $850 this week. This would put Gold in striking distance of its 200 day moving average.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
US dollar rebounds
Some good news on durable goods caused the US dollar to rebound on expectations that the Fed was near the end of its easing phase. This put a dent in the speculation that has been fueling the recent rise in the Euro and crude oil. The Euro closed down two full cents to under $1.57. While I had expected a sharp pullback, I thought the decline would not get started until next week. This is useful lesson on the unreliability of exact transit points as tr Venus had yet to conjoin the natal Saturn. I think we will likely see the retracement continue for the next week as tr Mars will aspect the natal Venus. I think there will be rallies in the weeks ahead, but the short term future looks quite bearish. We could be under 1.50 very quickly. I take some solace in the fact the 1.60 forecast was achieved, if only briefly.
Oil sold off as well closing near $116. This decline was also a little premature as Venus still hasn't quite left Pisces yet. Perhaps the skies are not as neatly divided as one would like. The Sun-Saturn sell off I had forecast came a day later than expected. I don't see us selling off hugely Friday but a down day is likely. Next week does look more bearish, so we may fall back below $110.
Gold fell back sharply to $890 today mostly on the renewed interest in the US dollar. I had wondered about the possible negative effects of the Mars opposition to Venus at the end of the week. That bearish manifested a day earlier than forecast, however, and may well extend the weakness into tomorrow. I don't think we're headed straight down here, but the trend will be mostly negative over the next couple weeks.
US stocks ended up modestly to return to where they started the week. Microsoft's earnings outlook has sparked some after-hours selling, so we'll see how negative the market will be Friday.
The Sensex has held on to early gains this week but has been unable to build upon them. I think it will fall back near Monday's levels.
Oil sold off as well closing near $116. This decline was also a little premature as Venus still hasn't quite left Pisces yet. Perhaps the skies are not as neatly divided as one would like. The Sun-Saturn sell off I had forecast came a day later than expected. I don't see us selling off hugely Friday but a down day is likely. Next week does look more bearish, so we may fall back below $110.
Gold fell back sharply to $890 today mostly on the renewed interest in the US dollar. I had wondered about the possible negative effects of the Mars opposition to Venus at the end of the week. That bearish manifested a day earlier than forecast, however, and may well extend the weakness into tomorrow. I don't think we're headed straight down here, but the trend will be mostly negative over the next couple weeks.
US stocks ended up modestly to return to where they started the week. Microsoft's earnings outlook has sparked some after-hours selling, so we'll see how negative the market will be Friday.
The Sensex has held on to early gains this week but has been unable to build upon them. I think it will fall back near Monday's levels.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
New York sags; oil climbs higher
New York dropped almost 1% today as the Dow closed at 12,720 and the S&P at 1375. This basically confirms our bearish weekly forecast so far. Let's see if the down trend continues as the Mars-Jupiter aspect tightens.
The Euro touched above 1.60 for the first time and closed at 1.598. This is in keeping with our expectation. Look for it to close above 1.60 tomorrow or Thursday.
Oil continued its upward climb at it closed above $118, and reached as high as $119 intraday. This also confirms are bullish forecast as Venus continues its transit of Pisces. It will certainly push higher later in the week.
Gold was higher for the second straight day, closing at $920, right in line with my weekly forecast. I am expecting bigger gains as the week goes on, so that is something to watch for.
The Euro touched above 1.60 for the first time and closed at 1.598. This is in keeping with our expectation. Look for it to close above 1.60 tomorrow or Thursday.
Oil continued its upward climb at it closed above $118, and reached as high as $119 intraday. This also confirms are bullish forecast as Venus continues its transit of Pisces. It will certainly push higher later in the week.
Gold was higher for the second straight day, closing at $920, right in line with my weekly forecast. I am expecting bigger gains as the week goes on, so that is something to watch for.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of Apr 21 - 25
After last week's bull run eviscerated my gloomy forecast, New York starts the week at 12,849/1390. The dominant aspect this week is the Mars-Jupiter opposition which perfects on Thursday. For extra complexity, Venus (28 Pisces) will form a western t-square on that date as it moves through the last degrees of exaltation in Pisces. And given the Uranus placement in the same degree of Aquarius, we have a fairly potent line-up of planets. I think this pattern is largely bearish, although Monday may be an up day as Venus is still within range of the S&P Moon. We may be able to approach the 13,000/1400 in the early going this week but head lower as the week wears on. Besides the troublesome Mars-Jupiter aspect, tr Mars falls under the aspect of the S&P Rahu, while tr Sun sits on the equal 12th house cusp on Thursday. These are really quite negative indications and suggest that down days greater than 1% in midweek are likely. Overall, we should finish lower this week, with a reasonable prospect that we'll end up significantly lower, back to 12,200/1325.
Bombay opens at 16,481 after an unexpected big rise last week. I think the BSE is going to be lower this week, breaking below 16k. Besides the Mars-Venus-Jupiter t-square, tr Mars squares the Sun in the BSE-100 chart. Transiting bhukti lord Mercury is very close to the equal 6th house cusp earlier in the week, so this may be a drag on prices before any substantial declines occur.
After a solid week as per our forecast, Tokyo opens at 13,476. Even with this bearish Mars-Jupiter pattern in the sky, I'm less negative about the TSE. While I think some down days are in store, especially later in the week, this may well turn out to be one of the stronger global equity markets. If we finish down for the week, it won't be by much. Next week, by contrast, looks much worse.
After flirting with $1.60 last week, the Euro opens at $1.58. I think we will see it break through $1.60 this week -- finally. Tr Mars comes under the benefic influence of the natal Jupiter while tr Venus still aspects the Virgo lagna. Wednesday or Thursday look like the best days. Overall, we should finish up significantly for the week.
Oil is really the pivotal economic story these days as it opens at another all-time high of $116. Transiting bhukti lord Venus remains in exaltation in Pisces all week, so it looks generally bullish. However, we will see a chance for a big (>1%) pullback as tr Sun opposes the natal Moon-Saturn conjunction Tuesday and Wednesday. I think this transit will only generate one major down day so we'll probably finish Friday above current levels, but $120 may only be a 50-50 proposition.
At $915, Gold comes off a decent week, even if Friday's sell off was sharp. Monday looks negative as the residual bearish of transiting dasha lord Venus under the influence of natal Saturn. Also, tr Sun opposes the natal Uranus in the futures chart. I think the upward momentum will resume after that, although Friday is a question as the tr Mars opposes the natal Venus. On balance, I think we'll finish higher for the week. However, time is running out for Gold as next week the Jupiter station will really pull the rug out from this market in May and we could see prices break down to $850 or below. While I had previously thought that we had a window of opportunity to hit $1000 briefly before the big sell off, I no longer think this is possible. Especially if Monday is negative, I don't think there will be enough juice in the tank to get us there. We will likely have to wait until autumn for a chance to revisit the all-time highs.
Bombay opens at 16,481 after an unexpected big rise last week. I think the BSE is going to be lower this week, breaking below 16k. Besides the Mars-Venus-Jupiter t-square, tr Mars squares the Sun in the BSE-100 chart. Transiting bhukti lord Mercury is very close to the equal 6th house cusp earlier in the week, so this may be a drag on prices before any substantial declines occur.
After a solid week as per our forecast, Tokyo opens at 13,476. Even with this bearish Mars-Jupiter pattern in the sky, I'm less negative about the TSE. While I think some down days are in store, especially later in the week, this may well turn out to be one of the stronger global equity markets. If we finish down for the week, it won't be by much. Next week, by contrast, looks much worse.
After flirting with $1.60 last week, the Euro opens at $1.58. I think we will see it break through $1.60 this week -- finally. Tr Mars comes under the benefic influence of the natal Jupiter while tr Venus still aspects the Virgo lagna. Wednesday or Thursday look like the best days. Overall, we should finish up significantly for the week.
Oil is really the pivotal economic story these days as it opens at another all-time high of $116. Transiting bhukti lord Venus remains in exaltation in Pisces all week, so it looks generally bullish. However, we will see a chance for a big (>1%) pullback as tr Sun opposes the natal Moon-Saturn conjunction Tuesday and Wednesday. I think this transit will only generate one major down day so we'll probably finish Friday above current levels, but $120 may only be a 50-50 proposition.
At $915, Gold comes off a decent week, even if Friday's sell off was sharp. Monday looks negative as the residual bearish of transiting dasha lord Venus under the influence of natal Saturn. Also, tr Sun opposes the natal Uranus in the futures chart. I think the upward momentum will resume after that, although Friday is a question as the tr Mars opposes the natal Venus. On balance, I think we'll finish higher for the week. However, time is running out for Gold as next week the Jupiter station will really pull the rug out from this market in May and we could see prices break down to $850 or below. While I had previously thought that we had a window of opportunity to hit $1000 briefly before the big sell off, I no longer think this is possible. Especially if Monday is negative, I don't think there will be enough juice in the tank to get us there. We will likely have to wait until autumn for a chance to revisit the all-time highs.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Market Review -- week of Apr 14-18
On positive earnings news from Google, New York rallied strongly Friday to finish the week at 12,849 on the Dow and 1390 on the S&P. This left our bearish forecast in the dust. I missed the upward move by overestimating the negative influence of Ketu on the transiting Sun and Mercury. Stocks are near some key resistance levels here, so any more upside would be seen as a very bullish breakout move. I think it's possible we may see some up days here that put us over that 13,000/1400 threshold, but the downside risk is still greater so new gains will likely not hold. Next week features the apparently bearish Mars-Jupiter opposition coming exact so we will have to watch that carefully. A longer lasting rally is more likely to begin in May after the the Sun-Saturn square has occurred and run into early June.
Bombay had a bullish week closing at 16,481. Again, optimism returned despite our analysis to the contrary. One plausible explanation of the upward movement can be seen in the BSE Nifty Futures chart where tr. Venus conjoined the equal 9th house cusp while the natal lagnesh Moon was aspected by tr Sun and Mercury. Both of these are clearly bullish signals and suggests that this chart warrants further consideration as a useful proxy for the BSE.
Tokyo followed the upward trend this week and gained about 1% to close at 13,476. This confirmed our bullish forecast based on the TSE 1949 chart as tr Venus approached the unequal 10th house cusp.
Euro closed Friday at $1.581, down over a cent after touching $1.595 briefly midweek. This also confirmed our negative forecast for the week, although only barely. Our Thursday revised forecast was borne out by Friday's sell off as the transiting Sun finally combined with the natal 8th house Saturn, albeit a couple of degrees after the fact. There are still a preponderance of bullish factors at work in this chart that should tend to push it higher in the coming weeks, although after May 9th, that climb may be weakened, perhaps mortally.
Oil became a haven for speculators as it powered to new all-time highs, closing at $116.83 on Friday. Our bearish prediction was defied by the strength of transiting bhukti lord Venus exalted in Pisces and transiting the 11th house of gains in the futures chart. My expectation was that the influence of the tr Sun and Mercury over the natal 12th house Mars would take prices down. The fact that this Mars sits in the unequal 11th house suggests that whole sign house placements may demand alternative interpretations from time to time. While Venus' movement into Aries after the 25th may bring a slowing of recent gains, I think we'll have to wait for May and Mars' ingress into Cancer to bring prices down.
Gold closed down $27 to $915. After a surprisingly strong week, at least our revised Wednesday forecast indicated the possibility of a Friday decline with tr Venus coming within range of the aspect from natal Saturn in the futures chart. The medium term factors are still in place for a rally in the next couple of weeks, although I note that the Mars-Jupiter opposition next week will activate the natal Venus in the futures chart. This is likely bullish given Mars' rulership over the 11th house, but it is not certain.
Bombay had a bullish week closing at 16,481. Again, optimism returned despite our analysis to the contrary. One plausible explanation of the upward movement can be seen in the BSE Nifty Futures chart where tr. Venus conjoined the equal 9th house cusp while the natal lagnesh Moon was aspected by tr Sun and Mercury. Both of these are clearly bullish signals and suggests that this chart warrants further consideration as a useful proxy for the BSE.
Tokyo followed the upward trend this week and gained about 1% to close at 13,476. This confirmed our bullish forecast based on the TSE 1949 chart as tr Venus approached the unequal 10th house cusp.
Euro closed Friday at $1.581, down over a cent after touching $1.595 briefly midweek. This also confirmed our negative forecast for the week, although only barely. Our Thursday revised forecast was borne out by Friday's sell off as the transiting Sun finally combined with the natal 8th house Saturn, albeit a couple of degrees after the fact. There are still a preponderance of bullish factors at work in this chart that should tend to push it higher in the coming weeks, although after May 9th, that climb may be weakened, perhaps mortally.
Oil became a haven for speculators as it powered to new all-time highs, closing at $116.83 on Friday. Our bearish prediction was defied by the strength of transiting bhukti lord Venus exalted in Pisces and transiting the 11th house of gains in the futures chart. My expectation was that the influence of the tr Sun and Mercury over the natal 12th house Mars would take prices down. The fact that this Mars sits in the unequal 11th house suggests that whole sign house placements may demand alternative interpretations from time to time. While Venus' movement into Aries after the 25th may bring a slowing of recent gains, I think we'll have to wait for May and Mars' ingress into Cancer to bring prices down.
Gold closed down $27 to $915. After a surprisingly strong week, at least our revised Wednesday forecast indicated the possibility of a Friday decline with tr Venus coming within range of the aspect from natal Saturn in the futures chart. The medium term factors are still in place for a rally in the next couple of weeks, although I note that the Mars-Jupiter opposition next week will activate the natal Venus in the futures chart. This is likely bullish given Mars' rulership over the 11th house, but it is not certain.
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