As predicted, American markets took it on the chin today. Yesterday I thought we were in for a significant decline of 1% or more -- we ended up down 2.5%. The Dow finished at 12,266 down 315 points while the S&P closed at 1330 down 37. We're very close now to support levels so next week will be extra tense since more bad news early on may push the market below the floor. We'll see what's in store in my Sunday forecast. As it turns out, I was off in my weekly forecast since we finished down for the week, whereas I thought we would be up a bit but close to Monday's opening price of 12,381. Still, not far off all things considered.
Asian markets finished down as well, with Tokyo closing at 13,603 and Bombay finishing at 17,578. Both closed higher than our forecast (13,600 and 17,000) but certainly Monday's action will be negative and more in keeping with our previous expectations.
The Euro closed the week at 1.518, well above our forecast. We were right in calling for an upward trend, however, but underestimated the loss of faith in the US dollar which closed Friday at 0.655. It's clear that the US dollar may be headed to 0.60 by spring.
Our call for a continued bull markets in oil and gold was also correct, although there, too, we grossly underestimated their strength. Gold ended up another $7 today to close at $975 and oil ended the week down a dollar at 101.66. While both commodities will continue to rise in the coming weeks, I think gold has more upside than oil because of concerns of declining economic activity and corresponding demand reduction.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
NY pulls back
American markets took a breather today, as the Dow closed down 112 to 12,582. That much, at least, we did foresee.
The Euro, oil and gold continued their meteoric rise, however, despite my anticipation to the contrary. All three closed at all-time highs. While I am medium term bullish on all three of these markets, I clearly underestimated the strength that lies within. That strength, of course, is completely rooted the ongoing collapse of the US dollar. With the Sun applying to the natal Jupiter in the gold chart it seems unlikely that we will see a pull back. $1000 is likely next week or the week after as this conjunction perfects while Mercury and Venus apply to the Ascendant. This will be another clue about which gold futures chart is correct by the way. We can watch for when Venus crosses the respective ascendants. The 9.45 am chart has 28 Cap rising which Venus crosses March 6, (this will have the Sun just past the natal Jupiter) and the 10.00 am chart has 4 Aquarius rising which Venus crosses March 11. The Venus conjunction to the ascendant should see a strong rally, regardless if it is past the psychological barrier of $1000. The Sun to Jupiter is also a good indicator of a milestone such as this, so it may well happen in the next 3-4 days. I would bet on March 7 as the most likely day for gold to hit $1000 as the Moon joins the Sun close to Jupiter at 19 Aquarius. I think we're still at least a couple of months away from the top of the gold market.
Tokyo finished lower at 13,900 while the Sensex showed surprising resilience to remain unchanged at 17,824. Both indices will decline tomorrow taking the lead from NY. I think the BSE is likely to have a tougher go of it, however. Looking ahead, I think the general bias on the BSE is negative for the next few months. There may be short lived rallies that may return to current levels (18k), but look for deeper troughs. March 5th seems to be the beginning of the testing of some recent lows at 16,800. I think we will fall below there in March. April looks similarly negative in sentiment.
The Euro, oil and gold continued their meteoric rise, however, despite my anticipation to the contrary. All three closed at all-time highs. While I am medium term bullish on all three of these markets, I clearly underestimated the strength that lies within. That strength, of course, is completely rooted the ongoing collapse of the US dollar. With the Sun applying to the natal Jupiter in the gold chart it seems unlikely that we will see a pull back. $1000 is likely next week or the week after as this conjunction perfects while Mercury and Venus apply to the Ascendant. This will be another clue about which gold futures chart is correct by the way. We can watch for when Venus crosses the respective ascendants. The 9.45 am chart has 28 Cap rising which Venus crosses March 6, (this will have the Sun just past the natal Jupiter) and the 10.00 am chart has 4 Aquarius rising which Venus crosses March 11. The Venus conjunction to the ascendant should see a strong rally, regardless if it is past the psychological barrier of $1000. The Sun to Jupiter is also a good indicator of a milestone such as this, so it may well happen in the next 3-4 days. I would bet on March 7 as the most likely day for gold to hit $1000 as the Moon joins the Sun close to Jupiter at 19 Aquarius. I think we're still at least a couple of months away from the top of the gold market.
Tokyo finished lower at 13,900 while the Sensex showed surprising resilience to remain unchanged at 17,824. Both indices will decline tomorrow taking the lead from NY. I think the BSE is likely to have a tougher go of it, however. Looking ahead, I think the general bias on the BSE is negative for the next few months. There may be short lived rallies that may return to current levels (18k), but look for deeper troughs. March 5th seems to be the beginning of the testing of some recent lows at 16,800. I think we will fall below there in March. April looks similarly negative in sentiment.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Euro climbs higher
Another day, another new high for the Euro, oil and gold as the US dollar continues to plumb the depths in anticipation of further rate cuts from the Fed.
New York markets finished flat as the Dow inched up just 9 pts and the S&P closed down 1. This is in keeping with the middling sentiment I expressed in yesterday's forecast. The market caution I had forecast finally arrived in Bombay as the Sensex finished down, albeit only marginally. I missed on Tokyo as it stayed mostly positive finishing just above 14,000. I believe the fears over the US recession will hit these markets tomorrow more forcefully.
Oil did hit $102 as predicted, although it quickly fell back to $99. I am expecting further declines tomorrow.
Gold powered ever higher to finish at $958 up $10. I missed this move but I still feel that gold is due to fall back to earth Thursday and Friday.
The Euro soared past 1.51, closing at 1.5122. A stunning run that no doubt owes a lot to the Mercury-Venus conjunction activating the natal Uranus in the Euro natal chart. It's past exact now, so I think the rally will run out of steam tomorrow and likely into Friday. I'm expecting the sell-off to be sharp Thursday, possibly taking us back under 1.50 at least temporarily.
New York markets finished flat as the Dow inched up just 9 pts and the S&P closed down 1. This is in keeping with the middling sentiment I expressed in yesterday's forecast. The market caution I had forecast finally arrived in Bombay as the Sensex finished down, albeit only marginally. I missed on Tokyo as it stayed mostly positive finishing just above 14,000. I believe the fears over the US recession will hit these markets tomorrow more forcefully.
Oil did hit $102 as predicted, although it quickly fell back to $99. I am expecting further declines tomorrow.
Gold powered ever higher to finish at $958 up $10. I missed this move but I still feel that gold is due to fall back to earth Thursday and Friday.
The Euro soared past 1.51, closing at 1.5122. A stunning run that no doubt owes a lot to the Mercury-Venus conjunction activating the natal Uranus in the Euro natal chart. It's past exact now, so I think the rally will run out of steam tomorrow and likely into Friday. I'm expecting the sell-off to be sharp Thursday, possibly taking us back under 1.50 at least temporarily.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
US dollar at all-time low
American markets rallied again today as the Dow finished up 114 pts to 12,684 and the S$P added 9 to 1381. I had thought sentiment would turn negative today so our outlook missed the mark. Tomorrow will probably start strong but it may finish under water. I am not taking a firm stand either way, however.
Tokyo finished lower by 90 points to close at 13,824 as Monday's rally didn't hold while the BSE found some momentum and managed to add 156 to 17,806. These markets are vulnerable to declines Wednesday.
The big news of the day was the all-time low for the greenback at 0.6677 and the Euro hitting 1.50 for the first time. This is in keeping with our bullish forecast for the Euro. I expect it to go higher the rest of the week and linger at or above 1.50, although some retracements are likely.
Oil hit $100.88, also a new all-time high and is higher in Asia in Wednesday morning trading. It will probably move decisively towards $102.
Gold rallied as predicted hitting $948 in New York trading and is now moving towards $955 overseas. I think one more up day is possible (but not bankable), after which expect some serious consolidation, perhaps down below $930.
Tokyo finished lower by 90 points to close at 13,824 as Monday's rally didn't hold while the BSE found some momentum and managed to add 156 to 17,806. These markets are vulnerable to declines Wednesday.
The big news of the day was the all-time low for the greenback at 0.6677 and the Euro hitting 1.50 for the first time. This is in keeping with our bullish forecast for the Euro. I expect it to go higher the rest of the week and linger at or above 1.50, although some retracements are likely.
Oil hit $100.88, also a new all-time high and is higher in Asia in Wednesday morning trading. It will probably move decisively towards $102.
Gold rallied as predicted hitting $948 in New York trading and is now moving towards $955 overseas. I think one more up day is possible (but not bankable), after which expect some serious consolidation, perhaps down below $930.
Monday, February 25, 2008
A bullish Monday
World markets were up across the board Monday, more or less in keeping with our forecast for a bullish opening to the week. The Dow closed 189 pts higher at 12,570 while the S&P finished up 18 pts at 1371. Bombay and Tokyo were also up significantly in keeping with the forecast. Tokyo has opened Tuesday trading above 14,000 on the Nikkei for the first time in several weeks. The Sensex closed at 17,650 up 301 points.
Oil climbed to over $99 while gold pulled back to $938. Gold failed to rally as forecast, so tomorrow looks like a better candidate to pass $950.
The Euro held its own today closing at 1.483 against the dollar. Our prediction of a midday sell-off largely came true as the Euro declined starting after 11.00 CET and tested the 1.48 level over the next couple hours.
While Asian markets may eke out another up day Tuesday, I think the American markets will be mixed at best and likely headed lower by the end of trading.
Oil climbed to over $99 while gold pulled back to $938. Gold failed to rally as forecast, so tomorrow looks like a better candidate to pass $950.
The Euro held its own today closing at 1.483 against the dollar. Our prediction of a midday sell-off largely came true as the Euro declined starting after 11.00 CET and tested the 1.48 level over the next couple hours.
While Asian markets may eke out another up day Tuesday, I think the American markets will be mixed at best and likely headed lower by the end of trading.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of Feb 25-29
American markets have been trading within a fairly narrow range for the past few weeks. This will continue this week. The best days will probably be Monday and Tuesdaywhere may see 12,600 on the Dow and 1380 on the S&P on an intraday basis. The mood will turn negative on Wednesday and Thursday as the market will retreat back to those old familiar support levels we saw tested last week. Friday should start with a good rally as the Moon is in good aspect to Jupiter, but the indicators are mixed to negative after that, so short term traders would be advised to sell while the market is rising in the morning. Overall, I think the market will finish close to where it started the week (12,381/1353) but I think we're more likely to finish higher.
Tokyo will probably end the week a little lower. Monday looks positive, as does Friday, but in between we will see some declines. The Wednesday open stands out as a substantial sell-off. Overall, we are likely to see a retesting of 13,000 on the Nikkei but may finish in the 13,300 to 13,600 range.
Bombay's best days of the week will also likely be Monday and Friday, but it will be tough sledding to keep the Sensex above its current level of 17,369 by Friday. Probably we will finish below that level around 17,000. The best chance for a midweek rally is Wednesday, although this will lose some strength at the close. Thursday's close will likely be negative as Moon squares Saturn.
The Euro will likely continue its rally this week and finish above its current levels of 1.485. It will go above 1.49 at some point and may even touch 1.495, although it may occasionally slip below 1.48. Look for a sell-off Monday at midday CET as the Moon aspects Saturn. The best rally of the week will probably be Wednesday late afternoon CET.
Oil will likely push through $100 again this week, but this time it will probably hold above that psychological threshold. Prices will retreat Monday morning EST, but then move higher from there. Thursday looks like a day of consolidation with the rally resuming Friday.
Gold is rallying lately but I think sentiment will turn more cautious this week. The best rallies are likely Monday or Tuesday, both early in the day EST. We will probably close about $950 on one or both of those days. But the rest of the week looks less optimistic, so I think we'll probably finish the week below $940.
Tokyo will probably end the week a little lower. Monday looks positive, as does Friday, but in between we will see some declines. The Wednesday open stands out as a substantial sell-off. Overall, we are likely to see a retesting of 13,000 on the Nikkei but may finish in the 13,300 to 13,600 range.
Bombay's best days of the week will also likely be Monday and Friday, but it will be tough sledding to keep the Sensex above its current level of 17,369 by Friday. Probably we will finish below that level around 17,000. The best chance for a midweek rally is Wednesday, although this will lose some strength at the close. Thursday's close will likely be negative as Moon squares Saturn.
The Euro will likely continue its rally this week and finish above its current levels of 1.485. It will go above 1.49 at some point and may even touch 1.495, although it may occasionally slip below 1.48. Look for a sell-off Monday at midday CET as the Moon aspects Saturn. The best rally of the week will probably be Wednesday late afternoon CET.
Oil will likely push through $100 again this week, but this time it will probably hold above that psychological threshold. Prices will retreat Monday morning EST, but then move higher from there. Thursday looks like a day of consolidation with the rally resuming Friday.
Gold is rallying lately but I think sentiment will turn more cautious this week. The best rallies are likely Monday or Tuesday, both early in the day EST. We will probably close about $950 on one or both of those days. But the rest of the week looks less optimistic, so I think we'll probably finish the week below $940.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Market review -- week fo Feb 18-22
After Friday's jaw-dropping 200 pt rally at 3.15 in New York, the
markets finished up for the day and up slightly for the week as well.
Yesterday, I thought the markets would not escape another negative day
but buyers came in at the close as the indices bounce off their support
levels yet again. The Dow finished at 12,381, up just 33 points for the
week while the S&P ended up at 1353, up just 4 points. While I can't be
proud of my intraday week daily forecasts, I can at least claim (just
barely) that our weekly outlook was correct again as the markets closed
higher although missing our target of 12,500/1360. We did test the
upper reaches of the support level (12,150/1330) through Friday's
trading but never fell through.
Tokyo finished the week down 1% as the Nikkei closed at 13,500 on the
nose. Again, my intraweek dynamics were not very accurate as Wednesday
was the worst day with the market closing at 13,300. Our forecast
called for a slight upweek came up short as well, so all in all, nothing
to write home about. Fortunately, I was less than enthusiastic about
the prospects so in the end we were not that divergent from the market's
final performance.
Bombay was down 4% for the week and finished at 17,349. The big down
days were Wednesday and Friday. Here I underestimated the negative
impact of the lunar eclipse and also placed too much positive value on
the approaching Venus-Mercury conjunction that will occur over the
weekend.
The Euro was our shining success story for the week as it finished
strong, closing at 1.4825 USD. Our intraweek revised forecast correctly
called the high on Friday, with the Euro touching 1.485. We had thought
1.48 was likely and 1.49 was possible, so that is well within range.
We also correctly forecast Monday as the big down day and Wednesday
afternoon as another decline.
We called gold's big run-up this week more or less on the money as gold
futures closed Friday at $944, up over $40. Monday was weak and prices
stagnated near $900. The rally really got going after that and our
price target of $920 was easily achieved. Our intraweek revised
forecast correctly called the Friday close between $940 and $950.
Our forecast for oil's rise was also correct, as crude futures got to
$101.32 Wednesday before settling back to under $99 on Friday. Our
daily forecasts still need some work however as we thought Wednesday
would be a down day. Next week should see $100 again if only temporarily.
markets finished up for the day and up slightly for the week as well.
Yesterday, I thought the markets would not escape another negative day
but buyers came in at the close as the indices bounce off their support
levels yet again. The Dow finished at 12,381, up just 33 points for the
week while the S&P ended up at 1353, up just 4 points. While I can't be
proud of my intraday week daily forecasts, I can at least claim (just
barely) that our weekly outlook was correct again as the markets closed
higher although missing our target of 12,500/1360. We did test the
upper reaches of the support level (12,150/1330) through Friday's
trading but never fell through.
Tokyo finished the week down 1% as the Nikkei closed at 13,500 on the
nose. Again, my intraweek dynamics were not very accurate as Wednesday
was the worst day with the market closing at 13,300. Our forecast
called for a slight upweek came up short as well, so all in all, nothing
to write home about. Fortunately, I was less than enthusiastic about
the prospects so in the end we were not that divergent from the market's
final performance.
Bombay was down 4% for the week and finished at 17,349. The big down
days were Wednesday and Friday. Here I underestimated the negative
impact of the lunar eclipse and also placed too much positive value on
the approaching Venus-Mercury conjunction that will occur over the
weekend.
The Euro was our shining success story for the week as it finished
strong, closing at 1.4825 USD. Our intraweek revised forecast correctly
called the high on Friday, with the Euro touching 1.485. We had thought
1.48 was likely and 1.49 was possible, so that is well within range.
We also correctly forecast Monday as the big down day and Wednesday
afternoon as another decline.
We called gold's big run-up this week more or less on the money as gold
futures closed Friday at $944, up over $40. Monday was weak and prices
stagnated near $900. The rally really got going after that and our
price target of $920 was easily achieved. Our intraweek revised
forecast correctly called the Friday close between $940 and $950.
Our forecast for oil's rise was also correct, as crude futures got to
$101.32 Wednesday before settling back to under $99 on Friday. Our
daily forecasts still need some work however as we thought Wednesday
would be a down day. Next week should see $100 again if only temporarily.
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