Virus pandemic fears sink stocks

(24 February 2020) Stock markets around the world plunged today on fears that the coronavirus has reached pandemic status with major new outbreaks in Iran, Italy and South Korea.  Europe suffered the worst losses with Germany down 4%, while India lost 2% and the US fell more than 3%.  Investors now are beginning to factor in the possibility that the virus could significantly impact many economies outside of China.  Travel and tourism have already suffered significant declines as people are travelling less, and now the prospect of extensive lockdowns and quarantines threaten to hamper both production and consumption.  It all spells a potentially damaging phase for an already weakened global economy. 

This negative outcome was not surprising to the astrologically inclined as there was a clearly bearish planetary set up for early this week.  Mars (11 Sagittarius) conjoined the South Lunar Node (Ketu) which is often bearish as it can correlate with higher volatility and unpredictable situations. 

But Monday's alignments were that much more potent because there were two other planets involved: the Sun was sitting on the 11th degree of Aquarius and therefore in aspect with Rahu, the North Lunar Node.  The Nodes are destabilizing influences and tend to amplify negativity if associated with a malefic planet like Mars, as in the case here.  In addition, retrograde Mercury (14 Aquarius) isn't far away and so it is also under the destabilizing influence of the 120-degree/5th house aspect of Rahu. 

By itself, these transit aspects would likely have produced a 1% down day in any event.  But we had a much deeper decline in the US today because they aligned with the Ascendant and 8th house cusp of the S&P 500 horoscope.  The Mars-Ketu conjunction exactly conjoined the 8th house cusp and therefore formed a close 150 degree angle with the Ascendant.  According to the principles of Vedic astrology, the 8th house is the most malefic house in the whole chart and reflects situations of disappointment, obstacles and setbacks when it is activated through transits.

So what happens next?  Ketu will remain in very close conjunction to the 8th house cusp for the next few weeks so there is still some risk of more volatility in the stock market.  However, Mars moves much more quickly and will begin to move away from Ketu tomorrow so I would not be surprised to see some upside in the near term.  Futures are higher at the time of writing (10 pm EST) so some kind of relief bounce may be on the way this week. 

However, Mercury will form an even closer alignment with Mars and Ketu over the next couple of days, so we sould not be surprised if there is another down day in the mix here.  That said, the Moon conjoins Venus on Thursday and then Venus aligns with Pluto on Friday.  These are both bullish influences which may provide some fuel for any potential relief rally.  An eventual gap fill to 3320 is also not out of the question depending on how tomorrow goes.

Next week may be another story, however. 

For more details and potential timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.


Photo: Rocky Mountain Labs, NIAID/US NIH

 

Apple warns as coronavirus hits China production; Mercury turns Rx

(17 February 2020) Maybe the other shoe has finally dropped.   Today, Apple warned that revenues would likely fall short in this quarter due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China.  The outbreak has wreaked havoc on the Chinese economy as hundreds of millions of people are in full or partial lockdowns.   This has created interruptions in the complex supply chain for electronics such as the iPhone with both production and sales likely to take a major hit. 

Stock markets have generally rallied in February on the hope that the virus could be contained and that the forceful actions of the People's Bank of China would prevent a crash.  They have banned short selling and injected billions of the dollars into the system to keep liquidity flowing.  This has worked so far as China's market has bounced strongly off its Jan 31 low. 

But Apple's announcement today confirms that the economic impact has only begun to be felt.  More such announcements from large companies are likely coming soon as production has been severely interrupted in the world's second largest economy.

Interestingly, the announcement came just one day after Mercury, the planet of commerce and trade, turned retrograde.  Mercury's retrograde cycle lasts about three weeks and occurs about four times a year.  It is traditionally associated with miscommunication, breakdowns, foul-ups and frustration.  It tends to have a bearish reputation in terms of the stock market, although I have found the correlation is not that strong. 

However, I have found that the time around the "stations" are most important in terms of stocks.  Stocks can be more volatile and can rise or fall more sharply than normal during the 2-3 day period around each retrograde and direct station.  If Mercury forms a significant angle with a malefic planet like Mars or Saturn, a bearish outcome is more likely.  Retrograde periods can also indicate a temporary shift in prevailing sentiment. 

Futures are down modestly at the time of writing (10 p.m. EST Monday) so it looks like we could see a down day on Tuesday when US markets re-open after the long weekend.  Using the Apple horoscope, we can see why this week may be more negative than last week.  First, we can see that transiting Mercury Rx (18 Aquarius) does form a 45 degree angle with Saturn, a malefic planet. The angle is actually 46 degrees but that is still very close since 45 is one of the divisors of the 360-degree circle.  Mercury moves very slowly around the day of its station, so we should expect some down days this week in any event.

 

The other thing to note here is that the Apple chart is getting the full brunt of a nasty-looking Moon-Mars-Ketu conjunction on Tuesday.  This is a bearish influence which just happens to align with Apple's 12th house cusp representing loss and disappointment.  I suspect shareholders could be quite disappointed this week. 

But the stars aren't all bad.  Jupiter is in a near-exact 90-degree alignment with Neptune through the week so this is likely to generate at least some upside.  In fact, some of the gains we've already seen in February are partially related to this slow-moving alignment. 

In terms of the market as a whole, while the Mercury retrograde station is a negative influence this week, the Jupiter-Neptune alignment suggests it won't be a complete washout.   Wednesday's Moon-Jupiter conjunction looks somewhat more positive, for example, and Friday's Venus-Jupiter alignment also could give the bulls some fuel.  Thursday's Moon-Saturn conjunction is another potential danger zone, however.

Generally, I would think that Apple could have some difficulty resuming its usual upward climb here.  Ketu will remain fairly close to the 12th house cusp for the next couple of months so that may well bring more downside. 

The other thing to remember is that Apple is nearing the end of its Jupiter-Rahu dasha period.  This is usually a very bullish period in any chart and that has certainly been the case with Apple over the past two years.  But the Saturn-Saturn period is scheduled to begin on April 26 (using Krishnamurti ayanamsha -- perhaps a few weeks later in Lahiri) so that is another bearish influence for the longer term.  Dashas don't work like clockwork but they are important influences that can operate in the background.  The Saturn influence here will make further gains much more difficult in 2020 and we could easily see Apple undergo a significant correction. 

For more details and potential timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

After losing in New Hampshire, is Joe Biden done?

(11 February 2020) Early returns from tonight's New Hampshire primary have Bernie Sanders in front with 26 % of the vote.  The Vermont Senator was expected to win NH and has therefore become the frontrunner for nominee of the Democratic party in the presidential election in November.  Pete Buttigieg (24%) is running a close second with Amy Klobuchar (20%) a very respectable third.  Elizabeth Warren (10%) is a distant fourth and former Vice-President Joe Biden an even more distant fifth (8%). 

The takeaway here is Sanders has consolidated his leading position for the nomination while Amy Klobuchar is suddenly very much a going concern.  Perhaps the bigger news is that Biden has done so poorly that there may be pressure on him to drop out of the race.  Biden had been the frontrunner for most of last year as the former VP enjoyed the highest profile of any candidate.  But after his weak performances in Iowa and now in New Hampshire, Biden may be on the verge of ending his campaign.

Biden will likely soldier on until the South Carolina primary on February 29 where he has a strong base of support.  But few analysts expect him to have much chance of winning now. 

I must admit I thought Biden would have done better at this point.  That said, I have previously noted a few weaknesses in Biden's horoscope that made him less likely to do well in early in the campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire.  He is currently running the Mars minor dasha period and Mars is badly placed in his 12th house, albeit conjunct benefic Mercury.  Also, I noted that Jupiter, his major dasha lord, was opposed by transiting Saturn in February.  This perhaps made him more vulnerable in this early contests. 

And we can see how impossible Biden's transits were for today's New Hampshire primary.  Not only is Saturn (2 Capricorn) exactly opposite his Jupiter (2 Cancer), but transiting Mars (2 Sagittarius) also aspects his Saturn by its full-strength 8th house (quincunx) aspect.  It's a double shot of negative energy to his dasha lord and a very, very tough configuration.   And to make matters worse, Rahu is sitting on his equal 8th house cusp (10 Gemini) indicating negative situations causing embarrassment and humiliation.

Last year, I thought Biden's chart looked good enough to be the Democratic nominee mostly due to the Jupiter-Rahu dasha period that started in early April 2020.  Biden's Jupiter is very strong near its highest degree of exaltation in Cancer in the lucky 9th house.  Biden's Rahu is also very well placed in the 10th house of status and boosts his public profile and sense of achievement during its dasha.  What I hadn't seriously considered, however, is whether he could be forced to drop out of the race before this very favourable Jupiter-Rahu dasha period began.  The current Jupiter-Mars dasha definitely has some shortcomings due to Mars' 12th house placement.  And now this Mars-Saturn aspect to his Jupiter is very difficult indeed. 

And yet, if he somehow manages to hang on, his fortunes may improve both in South Carolina (February 29) and on Super Tuesday (March 3) and also the other March primaries.  Jupiter will aspect his Midheaven (unequal 10th house cusp) in late February and early March.  This transit usually coincides with some kind of achievement or success related to career and status.  But even here, Biden's chart still has its share of challenges.  Rahu will still be parked on his 8th house cusp (scandal, humiliation) and now Mercury will be conjunct his natal Ketu.  This forms a larger alignment with Uranus and Rahu and could coincide with some disruptive and strange situations. 

While the Jupiter influence is very good, this Mercury alignment looks more stressful for Biden.  It is less negative than the Saturn-Mars-Jupiter alignment for New Hampshire, but it is not clearly positive either.  An additional source of concern for Biden is the Sun-Saturn square alignment.  This suggests some injury to his ego is more likely in SC.

While he should do better in SC in any event, it is unclear if this chart setup will be enough to win.  The horoscope doesn't really look good enough for Biden to win and to reclaim his frontrunner mantle.  But I wonder if it may be enough to keep him in the race. 

His chart does look better for the decisive March primaries so there is still a chance that he could somehow pull this out.  And yet, I have to say I would not be surprised if he dropped out in the coming days.  One such possible time would be around the Nevada primary on February 22 as the planets look very bad for him.  Mars will conjoin Ketu on his 2nd house cusp while Mercury is in a square alignment with his Saturn.  He seems likely to lose again, whether or not he chooses to end his campaign. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have extended their rebound this week as fears diminished somewhat about the potential impact of the Wuhan coronavirus.  The size of this move higher has been somewhat greater than expected, as I thought we might have seen some more downside from this week's Mars-Saturn alignment following Friday's pullback. 

The downside risk remains elevated this week, however, as Mars will remain in fairly close alignment with Saturn.  Thursday's Moon-Saturn square also favours some selling and Friday's Sun-Saturn alignment has a bearish quality.   The ongoing Jupiter-Neptune alignment is likely offering some support to market sentiment here although it is unclear if it can offset some of the upcoming negative transit setups.

For more details and potential timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Buttigieg scores potential upset in Iowa caucuses

(4 February 2020)  The US primary season got under way yesterday with the Iowa caucuses, the traditional first stop on the long road to election day in November.  Unfortunately, here it is 24 hours later and the winner is not yet known due to a malfunctioning computer app and a newly complicated vote-allocation procedure.  With partial results in, however, the young Mayor Pete Buttigieg enjoys a narrow 1% lead over Bernie Sanders and a somewhat larger lead over Elizabeth Warren and presumptive frontrunner, Joe Biden.

If current trends hold, then Buttigieg would get a big boost going into the next primary in New Hampshire on February 11.  Even if he loses narrowly to Sanders, he will still have done well and would be well-positioned for future primaries. 

A Buttigieg win would not be surprising as I thought his horoscope looked quite good for this week's contest.  In my post two weeks ago, I wasn't sure who would win although I thought Buttigieg had a reasonable shot.  I had thought Joe Biden's chart was sufficiently strong for him to parley his frontrunner status but that clearly isn't the case as Biden is likely to be a loser after tonight.  Perhaps the confusion and delay with the result prevented him from suffering an even greater embarrassment so that may have been his silver lining. 

I was also wrong in thinking that Bernie Sanders would do poorly in Iowa as the firebrand socialist senator from Vermont has clearly gained some important early momentum.  One possible interpretation of some of the difficult energy from the Saturn alignment to his Mars-Venus pattern is that either he came frustratingly close to winning but narrowly lost or he won but was denied the chance to make a primetime victory speech which would have further legitimized his campaign.  It is widely known that the Democrat establishment don't want Sanders to win the nomination and some have suggested the confusion and delay in the tally may have been deliberate.

Buttigieg's horoscope is quite strong here.  As I noted previously, the really important transit hit was the direct station of Uranus in mid-January  at 8 Aries that exactly squared with his natal Venus at 8 Capricorn. While square aspects are usually more problematic that conjunctions, the station is very powerful in any event and the Uranus-Venus pairing tends to be quite positive in terms of life outcomes including greater rewards and recognition, especially those that may come suddenly and unexpectedly. 

We can also see that the Uranus-Venus alignment is being amplified by Chiron (8 Pisces) and Mercury (7 Aquarius).  All these planets near the 8th degree of their sign will resonate more strongly with Buttigieg's Venus and will tend to produce very more favourable results at this time.  The Sun coming up to conjoin his Mercury doesn't hurt either. 

So whether he ultimately wins Iowa or comes in a close second, Buttigieg has some significant momentum going into New Hampshire.  However, his transits for the next primary on February 11 do not look favourable.  The transiting Sun (28 Capricorn) aligns with his natal Saturn and Rahu and suggest a difficult time in terms of damaged ego and diminished vitality.  The Mars transit to his Neptune is also probably a negative as it can mean suffering from deception.  The fact that Saturn (2 Capricorn) also aligns with Mars and Neptune suggests that things may not go as he hopes. 

It seems less likely that Buttigieg can win New Hampshire and even a respectable second place showing may prove difficult.  Of course, Bernie Sanders is the favourite since NH is next door to his home state of Vermont.  Looking further ahead, Buttigieg may have a tough time of it over the next two months as Saturn conjoins his Sun (5 Capricorn).  There is usually a lot of hard work and discipline with this Saturn-Sun transit but usually the rewards are not forthcoming. 

Photo credit: Garry Riggs



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have bounced so far this week as coronavirus fears have subsided for now.  Last week saw the markets tumble as expected as the late week longitudinal Saturn-Mercury alignment combined with a horizontal parallel of the Sun, Earth, Saturn and Mars.  The early week gains here coincided with a bullish alignment of the Sun, Jupiter and Neptune. 

The rest of the week seems more mixed as the Sun-Jupiter-Neptune alignment will gradually fade.   Wednesday and Thursday have some upside potential as Mercury remains in fairly close alignment with Uranus and Chiron.  However, I am less confident of gains on both those days as Mars is slowly moving into alignment with Pluto and Saturn.  This bearish influence is exact next week but it could start to cause problems this week.  Friday is the most likely candidate in that respect as the Moon opposes Saturn in the morning of the US trading day.

For more details and potential timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

China struggles to contain coronavirus outbreak

. (27 January 2020) As it rings in the Lunar New Year, China is reeling under the effects of a deadly new coronavirus that is spreading rapidly through country.   The virus outbreak began in the city of Wuhan in December and cases have now appeared in many countries around the world.  While the city of Wuhan is now under quarantine, it is uncertain if the virus can be quickly contained given that it is more contagious than previous coronaviruses such as SARS.

There is growing alarm over the the future impact of this epidemic.  Already Chinese authorities have ordered an extension of the Lunar New Year holiday for a second week with businesses and schools now due to re-open on February 9.  Travel restrictions inside and outside China are now in place in an attempt to stop the spread of the virus.

This coronavirus outbreak appears to fulfill my New Year's prediction of a potential global disease or health-related problem emerging in 2020.   The horoscope for January 1, 2020 featured an alignment of the Moon (population), Neptune (illness) and Saturn (suffering) which suggested the elevated risk of a this sort of viral outbreak.  On December 30, 2019 I wrote:

I would also suggest that the affliction of Moon-Neptune by Saturn could signify some kind of  disease or health-related problems in 2020.  Neptune is the planet that is frequently connected with illness so its connection with Saturn and the Moon is noteworthy.  Saturn rules the 6th house of health so its association with Neptune and the Moon also raises this as a possible scenario.  By way of comparison, the SARS outbreak in 2003 saw Neptune closely aspected by Rahu in the New Year's chart, while the Moon was closely opposed by Saturn.

We can see how the fallout from this virus is manifesting in the horoscope of China (October 1, 1949).  The Saturn-Pluto conjunction is hitting the natal Jupiter (29 Sagittarius) and is now entering the 1st house.  Saturn-Pluto is a very negative influence which has nullified Jupiter's hope and inherent optimism.  As Saturn now moves into Capricorn and the 1st house, hope for the future is in short supply as China focuses its energies on the here and now.

The negative influence of Saturn and Pluto reflect the overall national mood and the damage to the economy.   We can also see how the health of the nation is represented through transit effects of Neptune and Rahu (North Lunar Node).  When in hard aspect (0,90,180 degrees), Neptune is a planet that can bring weakness and sickness, whether to an individual or a nation.  We can see that Neptune is opposite (180 degrees) natal Saturn (20 Leo).  Since China has Capricorn rising in the 1st house, its sign ruler, Saturn, is the ruler of the whole chart.  Therefore, Saturn's affliction by Neptune is a key element of this current epidemic. 

Transiting Rahu at 12 Gemini is closely conjunct Uranus in the 6th house of national health.  This Rahu-Uranus conjunction is another clearly negative transit influence that aptly describes the current coronavirus outbreak.  Rahu is a natural malefic that operates through disruption of the status quo while Uranus is a planet of sudden and rapid developments.  The fact that this conjunction is taking place in the 6th house is a fairly impressive coincidence given the potential gravity of the medical situation in China.  We can also note that the current Uranus square to the natal Moon underlines the level of disruption of daily life and routine to the Chinese people. 

Underneath these very difficult transit influences is a very telling dasha picture.  In September 2019, China started its Mercury dasha period.  While Mercury has a somewhat positive quality by nature, it is in a very awkward place in the natal horoscope conjunct Neptune and Ketu and the Sun in Virgo.  Mercury is exalted in Virgo, but the tight conjunctions with Neptune and Ketu are huge negatives for this dasha period.  As we know, Neptune symbolizes weakness and illness, while Ketu is associated with more abstract notions of erasing, dilution, and transcendence.  This Mercury-Mercury dasha period is therefore a significant factor in the timing of this viral outbreak as the inherent natal weakness of Mercury is laid bare.


Looking ahead

So what happens next?  While I am reluctant to predict how serious things could get, I would say the planets do not point to any quick return to normal.  The Mercury-Mercury period lasts until 2022 so there is not much reason for optimism as far as that's concerned.  However, we should note that Neptune will slowing move away from its aspect with Saturn so that could represent a possible lessening of intensity of the virus over the coming months.  Rahu will remain in conjunction with the 6th house Uranus over the next few weeks so a solution to the health crisis may be more forthcoming after this period, such as in March.  That said, Rahu will remain in close conjunction with the 6th house cusp (8 Gemini) into spring and therefore health matters may be a source of ongoing concern.   

More worrying, however, is that Saturn will approach a close conjunction with the 1st house Moon (10 Capricorn) in April-May.  With Saturn due to station retrograde at 7 Capricorn in May, it is possible China could be feeling the negative effects of the flu epidemic until that date at least.  One possible way to read these influences is that the immediate medical emergency could pass by March as the Neptune-Saturn and Rahu-Uranus transits begin to separate and lose strength.  But the ongoing Saturn affliction to the Moon in the 1st house could represent serious damage to the economy and national mood for a significantly longer period.

I will update this post as the situation develops.


Weekly Market Forecast

Financial markets reacted to the coronavirus last week as stocks sold off and continued lower on Monday.  This was not unexpected as I thought we were more likely to see some turbulence here with the entry of Saturn into sidereal Capricorn on Jan 23 and the ongoing Saturn-Pluto conjunction this month.  Friday's decline in US markets closely correlated with the Sun-Moon-Saturn alignment that I noted in last week's post.  Today's decline also reflected a clearly bearish planetary signature as Mars closely aspected the Venus-Neptune conjunction.

While we could easily see some upside as we head into this Wednesday's Fed meeting, the late week again looks vulnerable to more selling on the rare parallel alignment (y-axis) of the Earth, the Sun, Mars and Saturn.  Longitudinally (x-axis), Mercury is due to align with Saturn and Pluto on Thursday and Friday so that is another possible indication for some downside.  Overall, it looks like volatility is here for a while.  

For more details and possible timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Trump impeachment trial to begin this week

(20 January 2020) The much-anticipated Senate impeachment trial of President Donald J. Trump is finally set to begin this week.   Although most observers expect Trump will be acquitted by the GOP-controlled Senate, there is still a lot of uncertainty about how the trial will proceed.  The White House and the GOP has thus far refused to hear any witnesses and there is considerable pressure from Trump to get the trial over as quickly as possible. 

Somehow I can't quite see Trump getting convicted, if only because it seems so unlikely in the current political climate.  And yet I cannot ignore the obvious tensions in Trump's horoscope over the coming weeks.  While some stresses and planetary afflictions are to be expected when a president is undergoing impeachment hearings, Trump's chart suggests it won't be smooth sailing.  A quick trial followed by a painless Trump acquittal therefore seems unlikely given some of the alignments in February and March. 

The early days of the trial look fairly good for Trump actually.   This week Jupiter will be closely oppose Trump's Mercury while Mercury and Venus will be in supportive degreewise alignments.   However, there could be some difficulties starting on Jan 29-30 as Mercury aligns with Saturn and Saturn is opposite his natal Saturn. 

Interestingly, this Saturnian theme of 'blocked progress' and 'disappointment' is also reflected in Trump's 2017 Inauguration chart.  That chart has Saturn at 29 Scorpio and Mars at 0 Pisces.  Therefore, we will see this Mars-Saturn duo activated by the transiting Mercury-Saturn-Pluto alignment at the end of January. 

Trump's stress levels will likely increase further into early February.  Around Feb 5, Mars will align with Saturn-Pluto and this will in turn activate his natal Saturn (0 Cancer) once again.  Mars will also conjoin his Moon-Ketu conjunction and coincide with a period of intense anger and emotions.  Of course, by this time, Saturn will be opposite Venus (2 Cancer) so that suggests unhappiness and diminished status since Venus rules his 10th house or career and status. 

Therefore, I would expect some setbacks for Trump during these two time windows.  One possibility is that some witnesses will be called and they will give damaging testimony.  This may not be enough to turn the GOP Senate against Trump, but it may create at least some uncertainty about the eventual outcome.  And more importantly, any damaging evidence could hurt Trump's re-election chances in November. 

So will Trump be convicted and removed from the White House or forced to resign?  I honestly don't know but probably not.  But I would say that the longer the trial goes, the worse it will be for Trump.  That's because there is a Saturn retrograde station coming up in April and May that will exactly hit his equal 6th house cusp (6 Capricorn) and therefore align with his Ascendant. 

This will also conjoin the natal Sun in the 2017 Inauguration chart and represents losses and frustration involving government and leaders.  The Mars-Saturn conjunction at 6 Capricorn on March 30 highlights the beginning of this difficult transit period for Trump and the White House in general.  



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks are as frothy as ever here as US markets remain at all-time highs.  The Fed is doing its utmost to keep interbank lending rates low by pumping cash into the financial system.  Most of this liquidity is finding its way into the stock market through hedge funds and investment banks as the current bubble gets blown even bigger.  Clearly, the Federal Reserve is trapped as they cannot remove this support without causing a major decline in the stock market.  They may have no choice but to continue QE and the overnight repo operation for the foreseeable future.  One can only imagine what more extreme measures the Fed will be forced to do if a recession actually takes hold.    

The planets this week suggest more upside is possible.  Tuesday lacks clarity so it could go either way.  But Jupiter will align with Mercury and Venus on Wednesday and Thursday so that ought to translate into at least some gains.  And yet the Saturn influence is still growing.  Last week's Saturn-Pluto-Sun conjunction was something of a non-event but Saturn will again be prominent this week as it enters sidereal Capricorn on Thursday and Friday.   With the Fed meeting next Wednesday and all this Saturn energy around, I would think this huge QE-driven rally since October is likely due for a breather.  And who knows, if the impeachment trial provides some unwelcome surprises for Trump, that could introduce another source of instability for financial markets.

For more details and possible timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

Biden and Sanders in close race ahead of Iowa caucuses

(13 January 2020) As we get closer to the Iowa caucuses on February 3, there is a tight four-way race for the nomination of the Democratic Party in this year's presidential election.  An average of recent polls has Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren each receiving between 16 and 21% support in the important first state race in Iowa.  A Monmouth poll released today had Biden taking a slightly wider lead at 24% with Sanders at 18%, Buttigieg at 16% and Warren at 15%.

While the Iowa result is important because it is first, it does not always predict the eventual winner of the nomination race.  Out of the past 10 races on the Democratic side, the Iowa winner went on to win the party nomination 7 times.   Clearly, Iowa matters a lot, but it is not crucial.  A close second or third place finish can also be enough to keep a candidate in the race.  Joe Biden currently enjoys an 9 point lead over Bernie Sanders nationally, but the race is tighter in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire (Feb 11).  In fact, the race is so close in these early primary states and it has some analysts suggesting we could see an open or "brokered convention" where there no candidate wins a majority of delegates before the convention.  

I think a brokered convention is very unlikely as I still think Biden will be declared the nominee at some point during the primaries.  For the Iowa caucus, Joe Biden's horoscope looks quite good.  Transiting Venus and Chiron in early Pisces form a nice Grand Trine with Jupiter (2 Cancer) and his Sun-Venus conjunction in early Scorpio in the 1st house.  That sort of configuration usually coincides with favorable outcomes such as an election win.  Of course, we should note the presence of a more challenging Saturn opposition aspect to Jupiter at this time.  It's close enough that it could represent some arduous efforts and even some disappointments.  But the fact that it is involved in a multi-planet alignment with Venus and Chiron will likely make it less negative in its influence.  

The other thing we should note is that Uranus stationed direct on Biden's Moon (8 Aries) a few days ago.  This can give a tremendous amount of energy, although it may also produce some unpredictable behavior and surprising or unexpected events which may be distracting.  Nonetheless, I take this Uranus direct station on his Moon as a big plus for Biden as he enters the primary season.  It may be just the shot of energy the ageing former Vice-President needs to ramp up his campaign.

Bernie Sanders (pictured above) is currently polling a close second and is seen a possible left-wing alternative to the more centrist Biden.  Unfortunately, Sanders' birth time is unknown so we have to use an approximated noon chart.  Sanders may have difficult time leading up to Iowa as the Saturn-Pluto conjunction at 28 Sagittarius will be aligning closely with his Venus-Mars opposition.  That's a tough influence that suggests he is unlikely to do well in January.  In fact, he seems more likely to slip back in the polls with that alignment.  On February 3, both transiting Saturn and Pluto will still be in close alignment with his natal Venus and Mars.  Mars will be opposite his Jupiter and casting its full-strength square aspect to Ketu.  This is not a good set-up for Iowa for Sanders.  He seems very unlikely to win and could instead come in third or fourth. 

Elizabeth Warren's chart (time unknown) doesn't look that great either on Feb 3.  Besides an absence of clearly positive aspects, transiting Mercury (6 Aquarius) will be opposite her Saturn (8 Leo).  This type of aspect is usually coincident with disappointment and frustration.  I can't see her winning in Iowa and she will likely finish well back.  Pete Buttigieg (time unknown) has been running a surprisingly strong campaign in Iowa.  His chart looks more promising for Feb 3.  The recent Uranus station squares his Venus (8 Capricorn) so he is likely to receive a lot of positive attention from the voters.  While the square aspect can have some downside, it will likely be mitigated significantly through the alignment with Mercury (6 Aquarius) and Chiron (8 Pisces).  Also the Sun is coming up to conjoin his Mercury soon after so I would think Buttigieg will do well in Iowa.  He should finish a strong second to Biden.  I also wouldn't be shocked if he actually won Iowa although that seems less likely.



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks continue their relentless march higher here ahead of the signing of Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal on Wednesday.  Last week's rise was not unexpected given the entry of Venus into sidereal Aquarius on Wednesday and Thursday.  But Friday's disruptive lunar eclipse played out as expected as stocks fell in Europe and the US, even if the declines were fairly modest.

This week could prove to be pivotal in financial markets as the Sun conjoins both Saturn and Pluto in late Sagittarius.  This is a rare alignment which is more likely to bring a shift in underlying sentiment.  The month of January as a whole looks likely to differ significantly from December due to the growing prominence of bearish Saturn over bullish Jupiter.  Saturn alignments are often correlated with falling markets although its slow velocity can sometimes make exact timing of its manifestations more challenging.  And with Saturn due to enter Capricorn on January 23, the rest of the month is likely to have a more cautious, or even fearful, Saturnian feel.  The close proximity of the triple conjunction and the Capricorn ingress may make the timing of the approaching market pullback less clear.

For more details and possible timing scenarios, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.