Markets await Yellen at Jackson Hole as Venus enters Virgo

(22 August 2016)  Financial markets are anxiously awaiting Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.  Her annual presentation at the economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming often clarifies Federal Reserve policy for the coming months.  This year many Fed watchers are wondering if the famously dovish Yellen will make a stronger case for another rate hike in the near term, possibly in September.   If she does signal higher rates sooner rather than later or delivers some other surprises, stocks are more likely to fall.  Despite modest improvement in US fundamentals recently, the market may not like the sound of higher rates after enjoying the fruits of the near-zero interest rate policy over the past seven years.  The Fed's near-zero interest rate policy has increasingly been criticized as the main reason for growing economic inequality in the US and why the record high stock market is now so widely divergent from the real economy.

Stocks have been going mostly sideways so far in August.  In the first two weeks of August, the Jupiter-Uranus alignment and simultaneous entry of Jupiter into sidereal Virgo kept sentiment fairly positive.  As I suggested in my previous market forecast, we have seen more weakness in recent days, however, as the apparent Jupiter influences begin to wane.  As Jupiter moves away from its angular alignment with Uranus, there is a greater risk of declines as the bearish Saturn influence may manifest more readily.  Mars exactly conjoins Saturn on Tuesday and this may well be an important turning point in financial markets as both malefic planets will then form a larger alignment with Neptune and the North Lunar Node (Rahu).  Multi-planet alignments involving malefics like Saturn are more often correlated with stock declines.  This square alignment of Saturn, Neptune and Rahu involves slow moving planets and will be roughly in effect until October. 

Sentiment may also suffer another hit this week as Venus enters sidereal Virgo.  The transit of Venus through its sign of debilitation occurs once a year and lasts about four weeks.   It usually correlates with weakness in stocks.  Venus enters Virgo on Thursday 25th August and will stay there until Sunday 18th September.  Venus symbolizes money and value (among other things) and when it transits through Virgo, these positive qualities cannot come forth so readily.  As a result, value is undermined and stocks typically fall.  This is a simple yet effective correlation in financial astrology with a good track record as the tables below show and previous financial astrology posts have highlighted.   While I have calculated the declines for US stocks, the correlation seems to hold across most global stock markets.  Last year's transit of Venus through Virgo brought only a very modest 1% fall, although the deepest decline in the middle the transit was a more significant 4%.

                    MARKET EFFECTS OF VENUS TRANSITS OF SIDEREAL VIRGO

Year	Venus entry	Venus exit	Outcome-US
2009	October 9	November 2	-4%
2010	July 31	August 31	-6%
2011	September 9	October 3	-6%
2012	October 22	November 16	-7%
2013	August 11	September 5	-3%
2014	September 24	October 18	-5%
2015	November 3	November 29	-1%
2016	August 25	September 18	???

It is intriguing then that Venus should enter Virgo just one day before Yellen's major speech.  It doesn't necessary mean that Yellen will talk up the prospect of tightening rates although the symbolism would tend to suggest some constraint or limitation (Virgo) on value and money (Venus).  Indeed, the bearish Venus-in-Virgo effect could result from some other source altogether.  And yet recent statements by fellow Fed members have sounded more hawkish (i.e. more in favour of tightening) so that outcome is perhaps more likely given this Venus influence.

This week contains an unusually high density of close aspects, both bullish and bearish.  The Mars-Saturn conjunction should be seen as a negative although it needn't manifest on the day of its exact conjunction on Tuesday.  The Mercury-Jupiter conjunction still aligns with Uranus and Venus will join them in Virgo later in the week.  The negative Virgo influence notwithstanding, those three planets are all benefic and hence the alignment should produce some temporary upside.   It is important to note that any negative effects of the Venus in Virgo may not even manifest this week.  For this reason, it is also conceivable that the market could react favourably to Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole. 

Stocks flying high as Jupiter enters Virgo

(9 August 2016)  Stock markets are still flying high this week as the summer rally continues apace.  This Panglossian state of affairs is largely the result of the efforts of the world's central bankers who are committed to buy as much debt and other assets as possible as they bravely attempt to stimulate economic activity.  This strategy hasn't worked very well over the past seven years but that is not stopping them for digging the debt hole even larger.  There is a belief in some quarters that central banks can't fix the economy and all they can do is postpone the collapse of the financial system for a while.

The buoyant mood may be partially attributable to the prominence of Jupiter and Uranus in the sky at the present time.  Jupiter and Uranus form a near-exact 150-degree alignment this week just as Jupiter enters the sign of sidereal Virgo on Thursday the 11th.  Jupiter is bullish, of course, so this is a double shot of Jupiterian optimism as the Uranian influence often magnifies its bullish effects.  However, it is unclear how long this state of contentment can last.  Uranus is now retrograde and hence will be separating from its alignment with Jupiter after this week.  That could let some air out of the financial balloon as time goes on.

Jupiter's entry into a new sign is often bullish for a few days although other factors can offset this effect.  Jupiter changes signs about once every 12 months.  In July 2015 it made its previous sign change as it entered Leo.  Most global stocks rose around 5% in the 10-day window around this Jupiter sign change.  Using the Krishnamurthi ayanamsha, Jupiter entered Leo on 13th July 2015.  We can take the last degree of Cancer and the first degree of Leo as the effective range of its influence (I admit it is somewhat arbitrary but it's plausible enough).  These two degrees of arc take Jupiter about 10 days to traverse when it is going at its normal forward velocity. 

The preceding Jupiter ingress into Cancer occurred on 19th June 2014.  Stocks also rose during this 10-day window although a more modest 2%. 

Jupiter entered Gemini on 30th May 2013.  But in this ingress, stocks actually fell by 1% during the 10-day window straddling the ingress.  Other factors such as the Saturn-Neptune alignment may have neutralized any upside from Jupiter. 

Stocks also fell in the previous two Jupiter ingresses in May 2012 and May 2011.  In both of these sign changes, Jupiter was closely aligned with a malefic planet.  In 2012, it was exactly aligned with Saturn as it entered Taurus.  In 2011, it was aspected by Rahu (North Lunar Node) as it entered Aries. 

The moral of the story is that, by itself, a Jupiter ingress may be positive for sentiment but it can be offset if negative factors occur at the same time.  This time around there are no apparent negative influences on Jupiter during its ingress window from 6th August to 15th August.  The ongoing Mars-Saturn conjunction is more problematic, however, and it is slowly getting closer.  But I suspect it may not quite be ready to manifest its negativity.  So that is an argument for stocks moving higher or at least remaining near these lofty levels for a few more days.

To be sure, I had thought we might have seen more troubles from the ongoing Mars-Saturn conjunction in Scorpio.  This has been ongoing since early July but so far it has had no obvious effect.  The conjunction is closer now, however, and is due to be exact on 23rd August.  That could be something to watch for down the road as the conjunction will be ongoing until mid-September.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

How sustainable is the Indian stock market rally? Dashas and financial astrology

(2 August 2016) 2016 has been a good year so far for Indian stocks.  After bottoming out in January and February, stocks have rebounded strongly as the benchmark BSE-Sensex is now 25% above its recent lows.  It is now just 6% away from matching its all-time high of 30,000 set in early 2015.  Part of the explanation for the rally has been relative weakness in the US Dollar which has encouraged more international capital to flow into emerging markets.  The domestic scene has also been favourable as corporate earnings have been strong and the Modi government has proceeded apace with reforms such as the GST.   But how long can it last? 

A brief overview of the dasha periods for the BSE-Sensex horoscope suggests the rally is more likely to falter fairly soon.  In my experience, dashas are one useful tool among many for analyzing longer term trends over months and years.  They are often not decisive for anything shorter than that, and indeed they often give unclear results when the indications are mixed.  And a mixed outcome is more often the case since planets may not be clearly negative or positive.  That is why the financial astrologer -- and all astrologers -- need to refer to other factors to create a comprehensive picture.  Transits, progressions, varshphal (returns) are just a few of the other techniques that we can use when forecasting price trends of different lengths. 

But dashas are uniquely suited to charting long term trends.  Dashas themselves last anywhere from six years in the case of the Sun dasha to twenty years for Venus.   These major dasha periods are further divided into minor periods or bhukties.  Both major and minor dasha periods can provide important clues about possible trends depending on 1) the dasha lord's intrinsic nature and 2) the lord's condition in the chart.  When both are strong, stocks are more likely to rise.  When both are weak and afflicted, then stocks are more likely to fall.  If there is a blending of influences as is often the case, then there may be a lack of clear direction.  Or least, we can say that dasha analysis does not provide decisive information of the probable direction of the market and other factors should be used to provide more useful insights. 

The BSE-Sensex has definitely enjoyed a very nice long term trend as it has risen from under 1000 since its inception on 1 January 1986 to over 28,000 today.  The Sensex was launched under the Venus dasha which was very auspicious since Venus is considered a benefic planet that promotes gains.  The condition of Venus in the chart is somewhat mixed, however.  On the plus side, it rules good houses, the 5th/Taurus and the 10th/Libra.  However, it is placed in the 12th house (loss!) with the Sun and Neptune.  While some astrologers would see a 12th house placement as a kiss of death, I don't in this case because Venus (12 Sagittarius) is very far from the equal 12th house cusp at 28 Sagittarius (N.B.  I use equal house cusps and whole sign houses.  When the Ascendant is 28 degrees of Capricorn, all the house cusps are at 28 degrees).  The other saving grace here is that Venus is disposited by Jupiter which is very strongly placed a few degrees from the Ascendant.  Yes, it's debilitated, but in my experience debilitation is overrated in its negative impact by most astrologers. 

On balance, I would expect a Venus dasha period to coincide with significant gains.  And that's exactly what happened.  Stocks rose more than six-fold from under 1000 in 1986 to over 6000 in 2005 by the end of the Venus dasha. 

The Sun dasha follows the Venus dasha and ran from February 2005 to February 2011.  The Sun is considered a fairly neutral planet by Vedic principles but it can become benefic if it is well aspected or malefic is poorly placed.  I think it is more benefic here as the Sun benefits from its conjunction with Venus (benefic) and Neptune (neutral).  Neptune is neutral when in conjunction but it takes on a more positive influence when surrounded by benefics such as Venus.  To be sure, the Sun is also back in the 12th house but again it is not that close to the cusp so I would say it escapes the worst of it.  And it is again disposited by that super-strong Jupiter on the Ascendant.  I would expect the Sun dasha to be somewhat positive, even if not quite as positive as Venus.

We can see that the Sensex rose three-fold during the Sun dasha from 6000 to 18,000.  That's pretty nice, especially since it occurred over just six years.  On a percentage basis, it was actually more bullish than the Venus  dasha period was.  But where things get really interesting is when you look at the trends in the minor periods.  As a window to see how dashas are working, I have found the most telling differences occur between Jupiter and Saturn.  And as it happens, they just happen to follow each other in the Vimshottari dasha sequence. 

Jupiter is the bullish planet par excellence, while Saturn is quintessentially bearish.  Jupiter is very strong in the Sensex horoscope as it is rising near the Ascendant, its debilitation in Capricorn notwithstanding.  Saturn actually isn't that badly placed either, as it is in the 11th house in Scorpio, unafflicted.  It may actually get a bit of a boost from the wide conjunction with Mercury and Uranus.  But on the other hand, it is disposited by Mars which is in trouble in the 10th house conjunct grim Pluto and ethereal Ketu.  Even if we considered these temporary chart influences to be somehow neutral and "mixed", Saturn is still Saturn by nature and therefore bearish.

During the brief 11-month Sun-Jupiter dasha period from Feb 2007 to Dec 2007, the Sensex jumped 8000 points (65%).  And that is why they call Jupiter a bullish planet!  The end of the Sun-Jupiter period closely coincided with the pre-crash top of the market which occurred just a few weeks later in early January.  The Sun-Saturn period then ran from December 2007 to November 2008.  This exactly corresponded with the global meltdown of the Great Recession.   Indian stocks fell from a high of 20,000 to just 8000 during this Sun-Saturn period, a decline of 60%.  Rule #1 in financial astrology is: bullish Jupiter gives, and bearish Saturn takes away. 

The Moon dasha period followed the Sun period.  The Moon period began in late 2011 and will run until 2021.  So far, it has been good for stocks as the Sensex has risen from 18,000 to 28,000 currently.  The Moon looks problematic, however.  It is benefic by nature, especially if waxing or at least fairly bright (near full) as is the case here.  But it receives a square aspect from pessimistic Saturn and a trine aspect from disruptive Rahu.  Both are unhelpful.  Also the Moon is placed in the 8th house, albeit not very close to the cusp.  It is hard to be optimistic about the Moon dasha period.  While I would not say gains cannot occur during its 10-year period, they seem less likely.

Again, the more telling distinctions arise in the differences between the Jupiter and Saturn minor periods.  The Moon-Jupiter dasha coincided with the big Modi election rally in 2014.  Stocks rose from 20,000 to 28,000 by the end of the Moon-Jupiter period in May 2015.  The all-time high of 30,000 also occurred during this bullish dasha period. But after the Moon-Saturn dasha began, stocks fell throughout 2015 before bottoming in early 2016 at 22,000.   The Sensex was at about 28,000 at the beginning of the Moon-Saturn period and has now virtually climbed all the way back to that level. 

Can it move higher during this apparently bearish Moon-Saturn dasha period?  It's certainly possible and it wouldn't shock me given the margin of error involved in dasha interpretation.  But I would still say the cosmic dice are loaded against this Moon-Saturn period finishing in the green above 28,000.  Since both the Moon and Saturn are problematic in terms of their influences, it seems more likely that stocks will finish this period lower rather than higher.  How much lower is hard to say based on dasha periods alone. 

The subsequent Mercury period that begins in December looks more positive and will run until 2018.  While the previous Sun-Mercury period (Nov 2008-Sep 2009) was very bullish indeed, this Moon-Mercury period may not be as positive owing to the afflictions to the Moon.  Nonetheless, Mercury's mostly positive condition in the 11th house with Uranus should produce some sizable rallies, even if they are not as strong as in 2009 or as sustainable.  We shall see.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have suffered modest losses early this week as the Bank of Japan disappointed liquidity-addicted investors today with a limited stimulus package.  In New York, the Dow is still trading above 18,200 as I write, although it did hold up fairly well last week.  European markets are also down in Tuesday trading, with Indian stocks only slightly lower as the Sensex slipped below 28,000 in Tuesday's close.  This mildly bearish outcome was in keeping with expectations as I thought we could see some downside late last week and early this week.  In last week's market forecast I thought we could see more downside last week, however, although it seems as if investors are now feeling the approaching Mercury-Saturn square. 

I think stocks are vulnerable to more declines this week as the Mercury-Saturn square tightens.  This could be felt more on Thursday or Friday given the additional Moon influence on those days.  Thursday looks more bearish than Friday, however.  Early next week could bring more downside as Mercury conjoins Rahu (North Lunar Node).

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Hillary Clinton chooses Tim Kaine as VP running mate

(26 July 2016)  The US Presidential election is about to move into a higher gear.   Following last week's raucous Republican convention that formally nominated Donald Trump, the Democratic Party takes center stage this week as Hillary Clinton is nominated as the candidate to stand for election in November.  Already, the Democratic convention has seen some controversy following the release of hacked emails that showed the DNC and the party establishment favoured Clinton over challenger Bernie Sanders.   Sanders' delegates are understandably angry but it seems unlikely to affect the overall outcome of the convention.

The nomination of Donald Trump has put many liberals in America into a state of shock and fear as their worst nightmare is now one step closer to reality.  The possibility of a Donald Trump presidency frightens many since Trump represents a radical sea change from Barack Obama on all fronts: an unpredictable and bellicose temperament, a ill-defined foreign policy, an anti-free trade stance, and much more draconian approach to immigration. 

Based on my reading of his horoscope, I thought it was unlikely that Trump would get this far.  On that, I was wrong.  But I did think that he was going to have a good campaign and that he would do better than many of his dismissive critics suggested last summer.  It didn't help matters that we lacked the birth times of most of the other GOP candidates like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.  We had Trump's birth time and Jeb Bush's birth time but that was about it.  Oh well, onward and upward. 

From an astrological perspective, the good news this week is that we have the birth time of Hillary Clinton's just-announced VP running mate, Tim Kaine.  Thanks to the efforts of astrologer Patrick Watson, we now know that Kaine was born at 7.59 a.m. in St. Paul, MN on 26 February 1958.  The horoscope is good, as one would expect from a sitting US Senator.  But will Kaine be a part of a winning ticket on November 8th or will he be destined to become an historical footnote?

Kaine is currently running the Saturn-Venus dasha period.  Both planets look broadly helpful for career success.  Saturn is placed in the 10th house of status and achievement.  To be sure, Saturn is a malefic planet by nature and its rulership of the 12th house (Aquarius) looks problematic for a Pisces Ascendant.  And yet, Saturn does quite well in the 10th house due to its symbolic affinity.  Saturn rules the natural 10th house (Capricorn) since it is a karaka planet of authority.  Saturn is not afflicted by any aspecting planet in his chart. 

Minor dasha lord Venus is also in good shape as it is a natural benefic planet and it is placed in the 11th house of gains and wishes fulfilled.  Having a strong 11th house is very useful when an individual is engaged in any kind of contest as is the case here.  Venus rules the 8th house which is less than ideal, although it is disposited by Saturn, which is nicely placed in the 10th house as we know. Although they are rarely decisive in predictions, the dashas look good.

The transits also look good this fall.  Transiting Jupiter will be in the middle of sidereal Virgo in October and hence will aspect both his Moon (11 Taurus) and his Venus (8 Capricorn).  Mars at the top of the chart should also be conducive to effective debating and competing against his GOP opponent, Mike Pence.  This will be right around the time of the debates (including his own on October 4th) and it could signal the moment in the campaign when the Democrats begin to pull away from Trump and the Republicans and assume the lead.  Currently, Clinton and Trump are virtually tied with Hillary having lost her long-held advantage.  Trump has astutely taken control of the political agenda while Clinton has struggled to avoid scandal and internal controversy.  But October looks very good for Kaine and hence it should be good for Clinton also. 

There are many other factors one could point to here but I'll just mention one.  At the time of the election, Kaine's tertiary progressed Jupiter (at 10 Sagittarius) will station retrograde just one degree from his equal 10th house cusp and one degree from his unequal 10th house cusp (MC).  The retrograde station is less desirable here than the direct station but it is so close to an obvious power point in the chart that it should translate into a win for Clinton and Kaine.

The takeaway here is that Kaine's timed chart offers more evidence for a Clinton win in November.   This is important since Hillary's birth time is a matter of some uncertainty with at least two different times in widespread circulation.  Birth time uncertainty notwithstanding,  I have generally thought for some time that Hillary's chart looked good for November and that she would win.  After seeing Tim Kaine's chart, I still think that now. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks haven't moved much over the past week.  In the US, the Dow is still near its recent high of 18,500 while the Indian BSE-Sensex closed Tuesday just under 28,000.  This is more or less in keeping with expectations with my market forecast as I thought we could see some declines late last week but that this week could begin more positively.  This has largely been the case, especially in Asian and European markets. 

The rest of this week looks more difficult as Mercury squares Mars on Thursday and Friday.  This is a tense alignment that could bring a rise in caution.  Interestingly, it will follow the latest Fed meeting announcement on Wednesday.  Perhaps Janet Yellen will say something that surprises investors.  Early next week also looks less amenable to gains as Mercury begins to tighten its square alignment with Saturn.  Next Tuesday's New Moon could be significant in this respect as it aligns closely with Saturn. 

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Our violent world: Mars and the sting of Scorpio

(19 July 2016) The news has been full of terrible events lately.   The Islamist terror attack in Nice, France saw 84 people mowed down by a truck during celebrations on Bastille Day, 14th July.  The attempted coup in Turkey just a day later resulted in the violent deaths of 300 people and the arrest of several thousand.  The unprecedented twin shootings of 7 US policeman in Dallas (7th July) and Baton Rouge (17th July) as revenge for a series of recent videotaped killings of black men apprehended by police.  And now word today (19th July) of another ISIS attack, this time in Germany by an Afghan teenager wielding an axe on a train.  This follows the recent mass shooting of the gay nightclub in Orlando in mid-June by another Islamist terrorist.

While it is always possible to highlight this or that violent incident in the news at any given time, this cluster of high profile violence is unusual.  It is rare to see such a clustering of politically significant incidents which have impacted the public imagination to this extent.  One possible explanation for this string of incidents is the recent entry of Mars into sidereal Scorpio.  Mars entered Scorpio on 11th July after completing its retrograde cycle in late June.  Due to its recent direct station in the very last degree of Libra on 29th June, it has been moving forward very slowly.  As a rule, slower moving planets are more powerful and are more likely to manifest their intrinsic symbolism. Mars has been in the proximity of this first and most powerful degree of Scorpio for most of June and so far all of July.

As everybody knows, Mars symbolizes violence, conflict and war.  Whenever Mars changes signs, its receives a boost in its energy and it is more likely to coincide with events that have a Mars-like character.  In this case, Mars entered the sign of Scorpio.  Of all the signs of the zodiac, it is fair to say that few signs have as chequered a reputation as Scorpio.  Scorpio is an intense and often unpredictable energy that often runs on instinct and adrenaline. It presumes that human action derives from the "will to power" and the need to control the external world as a means to protect the self.  There is often an overflow of passionate energy with Mars in Scorpio that can instill great courage and selflessness but it can also be subverted by arrogance, impatience and excess when under stress.  Please note to all readers who are Scorpios (15 Nov-15 Dec), this is NOT the same thing as having a Sun in Scorpio as you do.  The Mars in Scorpio placement manifests these negative traits more readily, especially when under planetary stress as it is now.  

Previously, I have written about the potential fallout of the Mars station and entry into Scorpio given the close alignment with Uranus at the end of June.  This was one reason for the Brexit vote shock.  Stressful events are more likely now given that Mars has conjoined Saturn, the Great Malefic, in Scorpio.  Saturn (16 Scorpio) is retrograde and slowly backing into its direct station in mid-August at 15 Scorpio.  Since Saturn is an often negative influence, its conjunction with Mars is more likely to produce tragic results such as those we have witnessed in recent days. 

Whether or not individuals or nations are likely to suffer the consequences of this Mars-Saturn conjunction in Scorpio depends on their horoscopes.  Let's take a look at how the entry of Mars into Scorpio may have impacted the 1792 horoscope of France at the time of the truck attack in Nice.  The chart of the 1st Republic of France has Mars at 4 degrees Scorpio in a tight conjunction with the MC (unequal 10th house cusp).  At the time of the attack, transiting Mars was at 0 Scorpio with the Moon just a few arc minutes behind at 29 Libra.  Both the Moon and Mars were therefore in a close conjunction with the natal Mars in Scorpio. 

But countries typically don't suffer mass terror attacks from a single Mars transit, even one that occurs just after a station and in Scorpio.  The other problem with this chart is that transiting Saturn (16 Scorpio) is approaching a close conjunction with the natal Moon (13 Scorpio).  The Moon represents the population as a whole as well as the national mood.  The current Saturn conjunction to the Moon is therefore very injurious to the nation, both in terms of events and in terms of national feeling. This double Scorpio affliction of the Moon-Mars conjunction in the 1792 chart is I think fairly well explained by the double Scorpio transit of the first-class malefics Mars and Saturn. 

Not only did all this negative energy manifest in this terrible atrocity, but it has raised questions about the competence of the government and its overall approach to Islamic terrorism.  More French people want a tougher approach it seems, or at least a different approach that takes their security more seriously. 

The bad news for France and President Hollande is that Mars is not due to conjoin Saturn until the 23rd of August.  The conjunction will occur at 15 Scorpio and therefore will be just two degrees past the natal Moon.  And even before that, Mars will conjoin its natal position (4 Scorpio) next week so we may see more tension, conflict, and the possibility of more violence. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Despite rising geopolitical uncertainty, stock markets moved higher last week in the expectation of more central bank money printing.  US stocks made new all-time highs as the Dow traded above 18,500.  Indian stocks also rose as the BSE-Sensex touched 28,000.  Stocks have pulled back a bit so far this week on normal profit taking.  While the gains were unsurprising, in last week's market forecast I thought that stocks might have lost some ground later in the week.  As it happened, only Friday was slightly lower in the US. 

I think we are likely to see more upside on Wednesday as the Moon aligns with Mercury and Venus.  Thursday and Friday look somewhat more problematic as Mars squares the Moon.  Early next week should bring more gains as Mercury aligns with Jupiter.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Is Jupiter pushing stocks higher? Lessons in financial astrology

(12 July 2016) Global stock markets have extended their post-Brexit rally into the start of another week.  While there remains considerably uncertainty about the UK economic situation, investors are seeing the glass half-full here after the sudden victory of moderate and pro-EU Theresa May for the leadership of the British Conservative Party.   The re-election of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe over the weekend was also seen in positive terms as it likely means even more government and central bank stimulus will be forthcoming for its perennially moribund economy.

The current rally has even managed to hit a new all-time high for the blue chip S&P 500 on Monday with the Dow now just a few points away.  Other US smaller cap indexes still have some ways to go before they make new highs, however.  European and Asian stocks are no less bullish here as Japan's Nikkei has added 7%  in the first two trading days this week while India's Sensex finished the Tuesday session at 27,808, an 11-month high.

In last week's market forecast, I had thought we might have started to see some of the negative effects of the entry of Mars into sidereal Scorpio early this week, but so far optimism is still the prevailing mood. It is worth remembering that the problematic Mars transit of Scorpio will last for the next nine weeks (into mid-September) so we should not be too surprised by this week's early gains.   Mars is moving fairly slowly still as it recently completed its retrograde cycle at the end of the June.

On the basic lessons of financial astrology is that rising stock prices are linked in some way to the position and condition of the planet Jupiter.  Jupiter is a bullish investor's best friend as gains are more likely when it forms close geometric angles with other bullish planets.  When it aligns with bearish planets like Mars, Saturn and Rahu, however, Jupiter's inclination for optimism becomes less reliable and can often be negated.  While I emphasized the destabilizing role of Uranus and Mars in the Brexit vote and subsequent sell-off, Jupiter did conjoin Rahu (North Lunar Node) in June (exact on 20th June) and that may have been an additional indicator for some of the downside we saw both before and just after the UK referendum. 

Now that Jupiter (24 Leo) is moving away from its conjunction with Rahu, stocks appear to be recovering quite strongly.  Jupiter (22 Leo) aligned with Pluto (22 Sagittarius) in the last week of June (exact 26th June).  just as most stock markets bottomed out after the Brexit vote.  Jupiter is now approaching a non-aspect alignment with Uranus in early August (exact 12th August) so that could provide an additional boost for sentiment around that time.  It's ultimate impact on the market is less clear, however, since it is not a proper aspect (0, 120, 240 degrees).  As a rule, non-aspect alignments tend to be weaker in their effects. 

Of course, forecasting market trends requires an analysis of many factors. Occasionally, a single factor will be strong enough to outweigh all others.  This appeared to be the case with entry of Uranus into sidereal Aries on 23rd June. Usually, however, assessing the collective sentiment that moves markets requires consideration of all of the planets and their aspects.  Well, easier said than done.

But even when considering the condition of a single planet like Jupiter, aspects are still only part of the story.  We also need to consider its sign placement and its dispositor.  Jupiter is in sidereal Leo now which is ruled by the Sun.  The Sun is therefore Jupiter's dispositor.  Therefore, the situation of the Sun may provide useful information for assessing the condition of Jupiter. 

I have also found that the relative placement of the planets around Jupiter can contain important information about the public mood and market sentiment.  One of the oldest of astrology across all cultures is the symbolism of the planets.  In both the East and the West, Jupiter represents expansion, gains, optimism and wisdom.  No wonder it is considered a bullish planet.  Since Jupiter is said to rule over the notion of gains, it is naturally associated with the 11th house of gains and income. 

A "house" is just astrological jargon for a region or area in the sky relative to a fixed frame of reference.   When the 11th house is strong in an individual's chart, then that person will tend to make money and fulfill their desires and wishes.  When the 11th house of a stock exchange or index chart is strong because of a positive transit, etc, then stocks are more likely to rise.  But we can extend the logic one step further: when the 11th house from Jupiter is strong, then stocks may also be less likely to fall and more likely to rise.  What defines "strong" or "weak" is a matter of interpretation (as always, facts must be understood theoretically!) and yet there are some basic notions that can be used with a reasonable degree of objectivity.

The current arrangement of planets around Jupiter seems to be positive since the Sun is placed in Gemini in the 11th house from Jupiter.  (N.B. I am using whole sign houses as per Indian Vedic custom).   The Sun is an important planet in any event, but perhaps doubly so here since it is Jupiter's sign dispositor of Leo. Until a couple of days ago, Venus and Mercury were also in Gemini in the 11th house from Jupiter, so that could have been an additional positive influence on sentiment in late June and early July.  It is possible that the entry of Mercury into Gemini (it's Gemini sign ruler) on 27th June could have been a key bullish factor in the the start of the post-Brexit rebound.  Mercury represents the ruler of the 11th house from Jupiter and it became stronger in its own sign.  Interestingly, stocks began to rebound on the 28th -- just a day or two after Mercury entered Gemini. 

Of course, hindsight is 20-20.  While I thought we could get some upside after the initial Brexit sell-off, I certainly did not expect the rally to be this strong.  Weighing the relative importance of different factors is always a matter of interpretation and that is where error resides.  Nonetheless, the changing influences on Jupiter offers a intriguing explanation for moves in recent days.

Now that Mercury and Venus have moved into Cancer, there may be less of that positive 11th house energy available for Jupiter to tap into.  The Sun is still in the 11th house/Gemini but it is due to leave early on Friday, 16th July.  This would place all of the fast-moving inner planets in Cancer, in the 12th house from Jupiter.  The 12th house symbolizes loss, among other things.  This does not necessarily mean that this placement will be decisive in determining the market trend, but it should be seen as a reduction of positive energy available for Jupiter.  Let's see how it plays out.

Weekly Market Forecast

Besides the last days of the Sun's bullish transit of Gemini this week, we are still awaiting any effects from the Mars entry into Scorpio.  It may take the conjunction of the Moon with Mars on Thursday and Friday to act as a trigger for that more destabilizing Scorpionic energy.  Stocks are more likely to be positive until the second half of the week.

Market recovers post-Brexit but for how long?

(5 July 2016) Financial markets recovered their footing last week in the wake of the Brexit vote in the UK last month.  The strong rebound was the result of the promise of more central bank intervention from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.  In addition, some investors took solace in the possibility that the UK may not ultimately leave the EU given a long and complex negotiation process that may take several years and yet another referendum or vote in Parliament.

US stocks jumped 3% on the week with the Dow closing at 17,949 which was just a bit below its June 23rd close.  Similar gains were also seen in Europe with the London FTSE 100 regaining all of its post-Brexit decline and then some.  Indian stocks also registered strong gains of more than 3% as the Sensex closed Friday at 27,144.  Most stocks have been moving lower so far this week as markets have become concerned about the solvency of Italian banks.  The British Pound is also headed lower again this week as the ongoing political uncertainty in the UK weighs on sentiment.

In last week's market forecast, I thought we might have got more downside after Monday's decline, perhaps for another day or two.  As it happened, however, Monday was the post-Brexit low for most global markets as the rebound began in earnest on Tuesday.  As expected, the second half of the week was positive as the Venus-Jupiter-Pluto Rahu alignment kicked in.   Venus and Jupiter are bullish planets and when they are aligned with other planets, stocks tend to rise.

But is this strong post-Brexit recovery the 'all clear' signal so that stocks can resume their upward climb in this seemingly unstoppable 7-year bull market?  Well, one thing we have learned in recent years is that central banks are capable of keeping stocks afloat no matter how bad the real economy may be.  If QE bond-buying doesn't work, they will try negative interest rates.  And if negative rates aren't producing the desired result, then they will find something else, including perhaps "helicopter money".  Hubristic central banks can never admit admit defeat and are committed to printing money and monetary debasement by any means necessary. 

From an astrological perspective, I believe the re-entry of Mars into sidereal Scorpio next week could coincide with more declines in stocks in the coming weeks.  Due to its retrograde cycle occurring in Scorpio, Mars has spent an unusually long time in the sign of Scorpio.  Near the end of its retrograde cycle, Mars actually left Scorpio and back-doored its way into Libra for a few weeks starting on 18th June.  Mars then stationed in the last degree of Libra (29 degrees) on 29-30th June, and is now moving forward again.  On 11th July, it will again enter Scorpio where it will remain until 17th September. 

In my view, when Mars transits Scorpio, stocks tend to come under increased stress and decline.  While Mars is said to become stronger through its traditional "rulership" of Scorpio, its transit through this sign often creates too much intensity which can manifest as a collective unease and anxiety.  Back in February, I posted some financial astrology research on previous transits of Mars through Scorpio for the years 1999 to 2014 which showed a fairly clear negative price correlation with this transit. 

But what happened during this first phase of the Mars transit of Scorpio in 2016?  Stocks actually rose as the Dow climbed from 16,600 to 17,700 -- a gain of 6%.  So does this put a dagger into the Mars-in-Scorpio-is-bearish thesis?  Not exactly.  In my previous research, there was still a fairly wide variation in outcomes from previous transits of Mars through Scorpio although it leaned negative overall.  I noted that no simple one or two-factor model could ever be 100% correct.  It was merely a probabilistic outcome that seemed to hold over the previous twenty years.  So far in 2016, it seems the outcome is at the far bullish end of that spectrum of outcomes.

But again the question remains why would stocks have risen during this time of supposedly increased tension of Mars in Scorpio?  One possible explanation would be to look at the role of other variables.  One-factor models (Mars through Scorpio) will only be probabilistic at best and even then only marginally so over many data points.  But what if we included other variables?  What if we looked at the condition of the modern ruler of Scorpio, which is Pluto?  In Vedic astrology (and in traditional Western astrology) Mars rules Scorpio and is said to exhibit its natural qualities most freely.  But modern Western astrology posits that Scorpio is also ruled by Pluto, whereas Mars only rules Aries.  Therefore, in order to assess the effects of the current Mars transit of Scorpio, we could look at the condition of Pluto. 

As we can see from the chart below, Pluto has been under the beneficial aspect of Jupiter for the past several months due to its retrograde cycle in Leo. Jupiter symbolizes expansion and optimism, and its ongoing aspect with Pluto since the beginning of 2016 may well have created a positive feedback loop for Mars and hence for markets as a whole.  To assess the effects of Mars, we can look at its ruler, Pluto. This is standard practice in astrological interpretation.   If the condition of the ruler Pluto is positive, then that positive energy could flow to Mars.  When I wrote the initial research post, I wanted to keep it as simple as possible in order to see if there was a measurable effect of this single factor (Mars in Scorpio).  I did not even consider expanding the equation beyond it.  In retrospect, I should have at least included some mention of it as an addendum.

When Mars first entered Scorpio on 20th February, Jupiter (26 Leo) closely aspected Pluto (22 Sagittarius).  Rahu (North Lunar Node) was conjunct Jupiter also, although I would take Rahu as acting mostly as an amplifier for Jupiter's benefic influence here.  Arguably, the Jupiter-Rahu conjunction has been one key factor in the rise in gold prices in the first half of 2016.   Generally speaking, the closer the aspect to exact, the stronger the positive Jupiter influence.  Most importantly, Jupiter was retrograde so the aspect was tightening right through to almost May when Jupiter stationed at 20 Leo.  This ongoing Jupiter influence on Pluto is one plausible reason why stocks rose while Mars was in Scorpio from February to June. 

So what is happening to Pluto now that Mars is about to re-enter Scorpio next Monday on 11th July?  Jupiter (24 Leo) is still closely aspecting Pluto (22 Sagittarius) so it is conceivable that there could be more gains in store for the stock market during the time of this transit.   And yet Jupiter is now moving forward and therefore separating from its aspect with Pluto. 

I would think that would indicate a weakening of Jupiter's bullish influence on Pluto and hence upon Mars also.  Jupiter will eventually leave the sign of Leo on 11th August so its aspect on Pluto will be well and truly over by then.  It is quite possible that without this Jupiter influence on Pluto, the negativity of the Mars transit of Scorpio could increase.  There is an argument that this bullish influence on Pluto/Mars could diminish as we move from July to August and then into September. This would allow the more bearish side of Mars in Scorpio to manifest, all other things being equal.

So next week's re-entry of Mars into Scorpio could well coincide with different market outcomes then its previous transit of Scorpio.  It's still only a probabilistic prediction since only now we have two variables in play instead of one.  As we know, astrology does not readily lend itself to these kinds of simplified analysis since there are literally dozens of variables are typically involved in forecasting.  And yet experience tells us that there are times when a very few number of factors will outweigh all the others.  Let's see what this second transit of Mars through Scorpio has in store for the rest of the summer.


Weekly Market Forecast

While this week has begun on a bearish note, I would think some upside is likely on Wednesday or Thursday given the Sun-Mercury conjunction and the Venus-Uranus alignment.  Friday is more open-ended, however, as the Moon is aspected by bearish Saturn.  There would therefore appear to be added downside risk on Friday, especially in European and US trading when the aspect is closest. 

And then early next week, we get that re-entry of Mars into Scorpio.   Mars is often bearish in its effect whenever it changes signs.  The fact that it is entering Scorpio may put even more pressure on bullish investors.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.