Iraq in chaos as insurgents advvance towards Baghdad

(15 June 2014)  The Iraqi government teetered on the verge of collapse last week as jihadist insurgents continued their advance on Baghdad.  The radical Islamist group ISIS has recently taken over large swaths of territory in the Sunni-dominated north and now threaten to topple the Shiite Maliki government.  Iraq's sectarian divisions now threaten to redraw the existing boundaries as the country may be better off dividing along religious lines.  And as Iraq moves towards total disintegration, the US is most concerned with the fact ISIS it a terrorist group with Al-Qaeda connections.  If they take over all of Iraq or even just establish a separate Sunni state in the north of Iraq, it would provide a potential terrorist training area not unlike what Afghanistan was before 2001.

The most pressing questions now are: 1) what are the chances that Iraq be taken over by ISIS or will be broken up into separate states with new boundaries?; and 2)  more immediately, how long is the current round of fighting likely to last?   Analysts have suggested that President Obama is in a difficult position here as he would be very reluctant to provide much military cover to the Maliki government.  Air strikes are still possible but likely only in a temporary capacity to stop the current advance by the insurgents.  His options are therefore very limited.  Maliki could also enlist support from neighboring Iran to prevent a worst case scenario of a total takeover by ISIS.  It may take some time for the government to re-assert its control over the central portion of the country, let alone re-take the northern Sunni-controlled area.  With the situation in flux and the future uncertain, what insight might the planets provide?

From an astrological perspective, one quick look at the Iraq horoscope and we see the problem.  Transiting Saturn (23 Libra) is backing into a very tight conjunction with the natal Moon (23 Libra) in this chart.   The Moon represents the people as a whole and is usually activated in any significant national developments, for good or ill.  Saturn, of course, is typically the most negative influence of all the planets as it symbolizes suffering, loss, and death.  To be sure, Saturn also has more positive significations, but its more negative associations are more likely to manifest in this time due to the afflicted nature of the chart as a whole.  Natally, Saturn is damaged from the get-go due to its opposition with Pluto across the 1-7 house axis.  Pluto symbolizes coercive power and potential cruelty.  To some extent, all Saturn transits in this chart will therefore be stamped with this more negative Saturn-Pluto energy. 

The reason why this particular Saturn-to-Moon transit correlates with such major difficulties is because Saturn is due to station at 22 Libra on July 20th.  In other words, it is moving very slowly at the moment and therefore has assumed much more energy than when it is moving at normal velocity.  A Saturn station to a key planet like the Moon often coincides with significant historical events in the life of a country.  That would appear to be the case here.  Saturn's conjunction with the Moon lasts from approximately May until August so that period runs the greatest risk of hardship and suffering.

Also we can see that the lunar nodes, Rahu and Ketu, are very much front and center.  First, we should note that the transiting Saturn comes under the influence of the aspect of Rahu (24 Aquarius) during this long Saturn direct station period from May to August while Saturn is barely moving.  The Saturn-Rahu pairing is typical in situations where boundaries and structures (Saturn) are undergoing disruption and change (Rahu).  Over the past weeks, Iraq is fragmenting as the large numbers of soldiers have fled and surrendered territory to the jihadists. 

We can also see that transiting Ketu (2 Aries) is closely conjunct the equal 10th house cusp (0 Aries).  It will exactly conjoin this point on July 2nd using the true node measurement.  In mundane astrology, the 10th house represents the government and its leaders.  Like Rahu, Ketu symbolizes change and development, usually in a sudden or shocking way.  The fact that transiting Ketu still has three weeks before becoming conjunct with the 10th house cusp suggests the the period of greatest intensity and disruption is yet to come for the Maliki government in Baghdad. 

Transiting Mars is in the picture too (of course!) as it conjoins the Sun-Mercury duo in Virgo close to the unequal 4th house cusp.  Mars is the planet most connected with violence and its conjunction with the Sun is evocative of the violent attack on the Iraqi government and its military. 

Somewhat paradoxically, benefic Jupiter conjoins the Ascendant.  What symbolic role could Jupiter take in the current situation?  There are a few possibilities here and I wouldn't argue to strongly for any one in particular.  Jupiter could represent US air strikes that help to save the Maliki government from defeat.  Or help could also come from Iran, a Shiite ally in the region.  Jupiter makes its exact conjunction with the Ascendant on June 23rd.

Whatever the possible stabilizing influence of Jupiter in the next week, the outlook seems problematic for Iraq.  As already noted, Ketu has yet to make its closest conjunction with the 10th house which takes place in the first week of July.  Moreover, transiting Mars will conjoin Rahu on July 13th at 0 degrees of Libra.  This will fall exactly on the 4th house cusp and will thereby activate the natal square of Pluto (0 Cancer) and Uranus (29 Aries).  This looks like a time when violence and military action could be near their peak.  The transiting Sun will cross the Ascendant a few days later on the 17th and thus set up a larger alignment with Rahu, Ketu and Mars.   If the Maliki government is going to fall, this would be one possible time for that to happen.   A sustained attack on the city of Baghdad is another possible manifestation of this pattern.  August 25th also looms large as that is the date that Mars conjoins Saturn in the sky and hence both malefics will be closely conjunct Iraq's Moon.  I would expect large-scale military actions to continue in Iraq until at least that date. 

Interestingly, by late August Jupiter will have moved into an exact conjunction with the natal Mars at 14 Cancer.  This is exactly where Jupiter stationed in April 2003 when the US invaded Iraq and toppled the Saddam government.  This is probably not going to be a repeat of history, but it may support the notion that major military action will occur in August. 

I am agnostic on the question of whether Iraq will survive.  The chart is afflicted but probably not afflicted enough to suggest that it will be dissolved.  Nonetheless, the next year or two look troubled for this country.  The next six months are probably going to be the most significant for shaping its future direction.  I hope to revisit these questions in later posts as more details become known.


Financial Markets Update

Stocks edged lower last week as worries over the Iraqi situation gave investors a reason to take profits.  The Dow lost 100 points closing at 16,775 while the Sensex dipped to 25,228.  I had noted the presence of some bearish-looking aspects midweek (Venus-Saturn) and late week (Mars-Pluto) so the move lower did not come as a big surprise.  Friday's rebound in the US also seemed to correlate nicely with the more bullish Sun-Jupiter aspect that day.

This week looks somewhat more positive as both Venus and Jupiter -- two benefic planets -- change signs at midweek.  I would think this simultaneous shift in energy of these planets is likely to correlate with some upside here.  However, Mars is approaching its opposition with Uranus as we get deeper into the week so that is a significant red flag that could suggest some panic selling.  Friday's alignment with the Moon is perhaps most portentous in this respect although the aspect does continue into early into next week. 

Ukraine's new President sworn-in

(8 June 2014)  Ukraine's new president was sworn-in last week as fighting raged in Eastern Ukraine with pro-Russian rebels.  Petro Poroshenko vowed to reclaim Crimea for Ukraine after he took the oath at 10.20 a.m. on June 7th in Kiev.  Oaths of office provide another window on the reality of political events as they mark the "birth" of a leader's administration.  While not all events can be inferred from the resulting swearing-in chart, some major developments usually coincide with significant planetary alignments to this horoscope.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the Poroshenko swearing-in chart looks troubled.  The proud sign of Leo rises and its ruler, the Sun, is in the 10th house of status and command in the stubborn sign of Taurus.  All of these factors suggest a more assertive and dominant leadership style by Poroshenko as he confronts Russian military power on his eastern frontier.  To be sure, his bold claim to take back Crimea is in keeping with a more assertive stance.  This is clearly not the chart of a government bent on compromise.  It also suggests the Poroshenko will cut a fairly dynamic figure as he takes control of the conflicted nation. 

The problems emerge from the position of the Moon.  Placed in the 2nd house in Virgo, the Moon is conjunct Mars (conflict, violence).  This conjunction doesn't always signify conflict as it is sometimes seen in the charts of activist or energetic administrations.  In this case, the Moon-Mars conjunction is situated in close opposition to Uranus (21 Pisces) and square with Pluto (18 Sagittarius).   This connection of Moon-Mars in hard aspect to both Uranus and Pluto is not conducive to a peaceful and constructive administration.  Rather, it suggests that conflict and power struggles will be ongoing features of the government and that they will have a negative effect on the country as a whole.

The other possible red flag in this chart concerns the role of Saturn.  Although safely exalted in Libra in the upachaya 3rd house, it does align with both Moon and Mercury if we use Western aspects of 45 degrees.  Saturn is exactly 45 degrees from the Moon and 135 degrees (45 x 3) from Mercury.  As if to punctuate the importance of this alignment, Mercury is almost stationary, just one day before it turns retrograde.  Even if we accept the fact that the 45 degree aspect is less powerful than Saturn's full strength Vedic aspects (60, 180, 270), the exactitude of the alignment does not look helpful for Ukraine under the Poroshenko government.   Saturn is associated with slow economic growth, and possibly social hardship, especially since the Moon is in play here.  The Moon symbolizes the population as a whole.

Looking ahead, one obvious time frame to watch will be early 2015.  In February, Saturn (9 Scorpio) will station in a close square aspect to the Ascendant (8 Leo) just as transiting Rahu will conjoin the natal Mars at 17 Virgo.  Although each of these aspects needn't bring problems in themselves, their simultaneity increases the probability of a major setback for Ukraine, including a significant situation involving military action (Rahu-Mars).

Both because of this transit hit and the difficult nature of the swearing-in chart itself, it seems unlikely that the crisis in Ukraine will be resolved peacefully very soon.  While we could see some minor moves here and there, the broader picture suggests more instability and continued violent confrontation.  Whether or not this will devolve into a full-scale war with Russia is harder to say.  Certainly, the chart doesn't rule out that possibility. 


Financial Markets Update

Stocks climbed last week as the European Central Bank cut rates yet again in its continuing effort to stimulate its stagnant economy.  Friday's jobs report was good enough to push US stocks higher to another record as the Dow closed at 16,924.  Indian shares fared even better on optimism over anticipated financial and energy reforms.  The Sensex also hit a new record closing at 25,396.  I thought we might have seen a little more turbulence around the Mercury retrograde station on June 7th although I did note that the Sun aspects in the first half of the week argued for more upside. 

This week could see some significant moves in both directions as there are a number of short term aspects in play.  Venus opposes Saturn around midweek so that loads the cosmic dice in favour of the bears.  This particular opposition is perhaps less negative than it otherwise would be because Uranus also joins the alignment.  This may modify the immediately negative effect of Saturn.  Nasty Mars squares Pluto late in the week which in normal times would correlate with declines.  Here again, there is a potential mitigating factor in the simultaneous Sun-Jupiter aspect on Friday.  On the face of it, the negative influences would appear to outweigh the positives, but the market has been so positive lately -- especially in India -- this outcome is far from certain.

Gold falls to $1250 on deflation fears

(1 June 2014)  As the old saying goes, all that glitters is not gold.  Perhaps including gold itself. The safe haven precious metal of choice decline sharply last week as it broke through an important technical support level.   Deflationary fears compelled more investors to hit the sell button, as gold finished the week at $1250.  As a traditional hedge against inflation and currency debasement from central bank money printing, gold is now the commodity that nobody wants.  The Federal Reserve is tapering its controversial QE program and thus reducing the amount of its own money printing.  Strike one for gold.  Inflation is not much of a threat in most developed economies as Europe remains mired in recession with sub-1% inflation and the US revised its Q1 GDP figures down to -1% with only 1.5% inflation.  Strike two for gold.  Last week, Japan released new data that showed sharply lower retail sales which would similarly reduce growth prospects for the current year.  That could well add up to strike three for gold. 

Since the meltdown in 2008, governments have tried to stimulate their sagging economies through various Keynesian spending measures (e.g. TARP) and central bank interventions which has the net effect of printing money.  These government efforts were the main reason why gold more than doubled in price from $800 in 2008 to over $1900 in September 2011.  The bull market in gold was primarily fueled by the expectation that all this government spending and money printing would create inflation.  Since gold is a hedge against inflation, many investors bid up the price in order to protect against a potential decline in the purchasing power of their own paper currencies.  The problem is that the inflation never happened, at least not in the developed world.  Emerging markets such as India, China and the Middle East did suffer a serious bout of inflation, in part due to the actions of central banks in the US and the EU.  However, most developed economies were so mired in debt and excess labor supply (i.e. unemployment), that it seems that no amount of government stimulus could resuscitate those economies so that any kind of inflationary dynamic took hold.  Without inflation and with central banks taking more of a hands-off approach, there isn't much reason to own gold.  At least not in the short term. 

Gold's decline this week correlated with two difficult planetary alignments involving the main planetary proxies for gold, Venus and the Sun.  Tuesday's Venus-Ketu conjunction is a kind of wild card pairing with value-seeking Venus conjoined with anti-materialist Ketu (the Sanskrit name for the South Lunar Node).  While not always negative for gold, the Ketu influence increases the possibility of a decline.  Wednesday's Sun-Neptune square aspect is a higher probability negative influence on gold since Neptune tends to weaken whatever planets its aligns with.  The Sun has a strong symbolic connection with gold so any weakness conferred to the Sun will usually manifest as a decline in the gold price.  That Neptune influence was a central reason why I predicted more downside for gold in last week's investor newsletter.

In a previous post, I suggested that gold likely had further to fall and did not look like a good investment for 2014.  So far, this prediction has been borne out as gold has fallen from $1380 in March to $1250 now.  I noted a difficult tertiary progressed pattern in the summer that might coincide with a low point.  Given the fairly generous margin of error with progressions, it is difficult to pin down just when this low might occur.  It seems unlikely that we are there yet, however, so I would expect gold to fall further from its current level. 

The upcoming Saturn-Uranus double station on July 20-21 could be a significant marker for gold and many other financial markets.   This is an extremely rare celestial event which bears close watching.  It is unusual enough that two outer planets like Saturn and Uranus should change direction within one day of each other.  But what makes this Saturn-Uranus double station extra-special is that the two planets will be in a close 150-degree alignment with each other.  As a rule, planets that form angles that are multiples of 30 degrees will have more of an impact of collective sentiment.  Since Saturn is one of the two planets involved here, there is good reason to expect pessimism and caution to be front and center around this pattern.   The fact that Saturn (22 Libra) will form a fairly close square aspect to the natal Mars (20 Cancer) in the Gold 1919 chart offers more reason to expect that gold prices will continue to be under pressure.


Financial Markets Update

US stocks extended their winning ways last week as the Dow closed at a new all-time high of 16,717.  The economy may not be recovering fast enough to cause inflation or any kind of wage growth but it is still fast enough for Wall Street.  Indian stocks saw some profit taking as modest GDP projections for the year dampened the post-election euphoria.  The Sensex lost 2% closing at 24,217.   As expected, we did see some early week gains across the board on the Mercury-Venus-Ketu aspect while more weakness was evident around the midweek Sun-Neptune square.

This week may revolve around the effects of next Saturday's Mercury retrograde station (June 7).  Markets will be closed when Mercury reverses, of course, but its effects could manifest at the end of the week.  The key is not so much that retrograde stations are bad (or good) but that this one occurs while forming an exact 135-degree angle with bearish Saturn.  To be sure, the 135-degree angle doesn't have the same probable impact of the 90 or 180 degree angles, but it may be worth watching nonetheless.  The first half of the week has the Sun aligning with Uranus and Pluto which can sometimes indicate greater collective confidence and hence, rising prices.

Coup in Thailand: Endgame for Thaksin?

(25 May 2014)  Democracy in Thailand took a step backward last week as the military launched its 12th successful coup since 1932, the year that marked the end of the absolute monarchy in what was then Siam.  The coup attempted to restore order in Bangkok following a period of protests and violent unrest against the elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister (and proxy) of the exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra.   The coup is the latest move in an ongoing struggle between the populist Thaksin and his mostly rural and working class supporters and the royalist elites and their middle class supporters centered around the capital Bangkok.  Since first becoming PM in 2001, Thaksin and his surrogates have won the largest majorities in the history of Thai democracy but have been widely criticized for corruption, human rights violations and censorship of the media.  Under the leadership of General Prayuth Chan-Ocha, the military junta is generally regarded as favoring the monarchy and traditional elites and is hostile to Thaksin's new-style authoritarian populism.  The military's promise to reform the constitution before new elections may be seen as a warning against the Thaksin regime.

In a previous article from early February, I had suggested that a coup was more likely to occur in June and July around the Saturn-Uranus alignment which activated a key planet in the 1932 chart of Thailand.  This prediction was somewhat off the mark in terms of timing (the coup happened on May 22 -- just two days after Mars stationed direct), although we can see from the chart just how close that Saturn-Uranus alignment is to Mercury (21 Gemini).  Mercury is doubly important in this chart because it is the chart ruler (Lagnesh) since Gemini rises. 

In addition, the disruptive effects of the Moon's nodes are very much in play with this coup as transiting Rahu (4 Libra) is closely aspecting the Ascendant at 1 Gemini through its 120 degree trine aspect.  Rahu (North Node) is a natural malefic and is often prominent in situations where the status quo is upset. That is very much the case here as the Yingluck government had been in power since 2011 but over the past six months had lost its ability to govern as the protests persisted and the Supreme Court eventually ruled against it.   My original prediction focused on the timing of the exact trine aspect of Rahu to the Ascendant in June and July.  The three degree orb is still very much within allowable limits so we have to assume that Rahu definitely had a hand in the coup. 

What's next for Thailand?    There is already resistance to the coup in Bangkok as supporters of the Yingluck government and pro-democracy activists have staged small protests designed to test the military's resolve.  Astrologically, I would think we could see this kind of ongoing popular opposition for some time to come.  Late June in particular may be an important time as Mars (conflict) opposes Uranus (change) both align with that aforementioned Mercury.  This appears to be a sharp rise in violence and harm although it is very unlikely to damage or unseat the junta.  The added problem here is that the tense and conflictual Mars-Uranus opposition will be imprinted in the June 24th Solar Return chart of the 1932 horoscope.  This is another reason why we should expect more unrest and violence throughout the next 12 months at least. 

More immediately, I would expect Thailand to remain unstable and volatile well into July as Mars will conjoin Rahu at 0 degrees of Libra exactly opposite the natal Uranus.  That looks like a sudden and shocking attack of violence.  Unlike previous coups which saw a quick return to peace and civil order in Thailand, this one looks shakier as if protests and unrest will continue in spite of the show of force.  As some Thai editorial writers have suggested, there is the real chance that the coup will actually make things worse rather than better.

The larger question is where all this leaves Thaksin Shinawatra.  The exiled telecommunications billionaire has tried to rule Thailand in absentia through his sister Yingluck.  Since he was deposed in a coup in 2006, the chess game between old and new elites has continued apace, with each side vying for advantage at every opportunity.  The old royalist elites are in the driver's seat now as Thaksin must be content to sit back and plan his next move.  He will have to wait for electoral reforms to be passed in the coming months (or years) and hope to recast his Pheu Thai party, assuming its principals have not been barred or imprisoned. 

Thaksin's horoscope (July 26, 1949; no time) looks like a mixed bag for 2014.  Late July and early August should be positive as Jupiter and Venus will conjoin his natal Sun-Mercury conjunction.  This suggests advancement of his interests and a fulfillment of his wishes.  But the end of 2014 looks more difficult as transiting Ketu conjoins his Rahu and then transiting Saturn squares his Venus-Saturn combination into early 2015.  This looks quite intense and even pivotal in terms of his ultimate goal of returning to Thailand and again taking the reins of power.  It does not seem positive so he could suffer another setback in that regard.   This could manifest as a banning of his political party in any upcoming election or as a loss of a key ally among the establishment or royal elites. Thaksin's fortunes may well improve in the second half of 2015 and look much better if we look out into 2016 and 2017.  The fugitive exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra may therefore have to be patient and wait for his next move at the political chess board.

Modi to be sworn-in on Monday the 26th

Meanwhile, India's incoming PM Narendra Modi will be sworn-in at 6 p.m. on Monday the 26th.  I hope to post something in greater detail once we know the exact time of the oath-taking but for now I would say that the chart looks quite active and has a strong nodal presence.  Both Rahu and Ketu are prominent in this chart given Ketu's conjunction with Venus and Mercury's aspect from Rahu.  This is perhaps not too surprising since the nodes are seen as harbingers of change which is why Modi was elected.  Deliberative and cautious Saturn will be rising in the Ascendant in Libra, its sign of exaltation, so this may well mark his administration as one given to thoughtful and methodical planning.  The Jupiter aspects suggest that results will be good and economic growth should follow.  However, the Moon is somewhat distressed by the aspect from Mars so that suggests an uncomfortable level of conflict and rancour.   I will revisit some of these ideas after the swearing-in has been completed and we know the exact time. 

Financial Markets Update

Stock markets generally rose last week as the Fed continued its soothing tones of near-perpetual low rates and economic recovery.  In New York, the Dow climbed more than 100 points finishing at 16,606.  Indian stocks did even better as the post-election rally delivered further gains on hope for substantive economic reforms.  The Sensex rose more than 2% ending the week at 24,693.  While I had been fairly non-committal last week, we did see some declines early in the week around the Mars direct station just as I had suggested.  I had also forecast a greater likelihood of gains in the second half of the week which also largely came to pass.

This week could see some early week gains around the Venus-Mercury-Ketu alignment.  Wednesday's Sun-Neptune square looks more difficult, however, especially in the US.  It is hard to say if stocks can continue their winning ways here since Jupiter is now separating from its aspect with Saturn, the last Jupiter aspect in a series that began in February.  This could diminish collective optimism and leave financial markets in a more vulnerable condition.

Understanding China's stock market boom and bust

(11 May 2014)  Readers of this site will know that one of my main areas of astrological interest is the stock market.  While I find economics and investments inherently interesting, stock prices provide a continuous flow of data against which astrological ideas can be measured and evaluated.  The stock market is therefore incredibly useful for an evidence-based astrology where changing planetary alignments can be correlated against the ups and downs in the financial markets.  This is not to say any such correlations are easy or obvious since the potential number of independent variables in terms of planetary positions is almost prohibitively high.   The challenge for financial astrology is to exclude mixed conditions where no clear outcome is suggested and focus instead on the smaller number of high probability planetary scenarios where clearer outcomes are more apparent.

An an illustration of high probability alignments, we can look at the ups and downs of China's stock market.  Since unleashing the free market in 1978 under Deng Xiaoping, China's booming economy has been a key ingredient in global economic growth.  Its economic expansion reached its apex in 2007 just before the financial meltdown.  At that time, the Chinese stock market reached a high of 6000 on the Shanghai Composite Index in October.  Optimism had reached its maximum as domestic and foreign investors had bid up prices on stocks 500% in just the previous two years.  But the meltdown changed all that as stocks crashed through most of 2008.  The Shanghai Composite made a low of just 1700 in November 2008.  While it rallied back up to 3500 in 2009, the Chinese market has had a fairly lackluster performance over the past four years and is now near 2000.  Chinese stocks have not kept pace with the rebound in its economy in part due to restrictive government investment regulations.  This is one reason why some investors have shifted money out of stocks and into the real estate market there.  Whatever the economic explanation for poor stock market performance, we are more interested in whether there a clear astrological correlation for its ongoing bear market. 

 

There is a good case to made for a simple astrological explanation using secondary progressions.  This is a Western forecasting technique that is useful in accounting for longer term outcomes.  A secondary progression uses a symbolic equivalence of time of planetary motion so that one day is "progressed" to one year of clock time.   We can use the horoscope of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (Dec 19 1990, 9.30 a.m.) to describe the secondary progressed patterns in 2007 when the market hits its all-time high.  The high occurred 17 years after the launch of the exchange (2007 - 1990=17) and thus we refer the position of the planets 17 days after its inception, which was January 5, 1991.  The biwheel chart above shows how this progressed chart from Jan 5 1991 aligns with the natal chart.  Not surprisingly, there are a number of favourable patterns involving natural benefic planets.  Progressed Venus (5 Capricorn) is conjunct progressed Rahu (North Node) (4 Capricorn).  Venus-Rahu alignments tend to be positive, especially in matters involving material things such as money and investments.  One complicating factor was that both planets were 120 degrees away from Mars (4 Taurus).  While Mars is a malefic planet by nature, its aspect with Venus is not full-strength and hence less damaging.

The progressed Sun (20 Sagittarius) had conjoined Neptune in 2007 and this should also be seen as a broadly positive factor in accounting to the rally in Chinese stocks.  The progressed Ascendant (6 Aquarius) was also just past a 30-degree alignment with Venus-Rahu.  This would have been exact the year before in 2006 during the time when stocks were soaring from 1000 to 6000.  Also the progressed Midheaven (MC), the old Latin name for the 10th house cusp, was at 17 Scorpio and thus was in an exact 120 degree aspect with Jupiter (17 Cancer).  So we can see that the two more bullish planets, Venus and Jupiter, were simultaneously aligned with the key progressed angles in the chart, the Ascendant and the Midheaven, at the time when the Shanghai index hit its all-time high. 

If those positive alignments were close to exact at the high point of the market, it stands to reason that their eventual separation would correlate with growing weakness.  Markets tend to fall not only when malefic influences are dominant but also in the wake of positive aspects.  Once all those exact hits were separating, the Chinese market became more vulnerable.   Progressed Venus moved away from Rahu so that left only Rahu in aspect with Mars -- a decidedly negative combination.  

If we fast forward to the current progressed chart, we can see that malefics predominate.  Progressed Saturn (3 Capricorn) is very slowly approaching its conjunction with Rahu (4 Capricorn) while Mars remains at 4 Taurus.  This is a very difficult pattern since all three planets are natural malefics.   Even worse, is that Mercury (3 Sagittarius) is now part of that larger negative alignment.  Although Mercury's more positive effect might be seen as ameliorating the situation, in my experience this is rarely the case when benefics are outnumbered by malefics.  The presence of Mercury with Mars, Saturn and Rahu probably makes things worse.

But the good news is that Mercury may only have to move another one degree (= one more year) to have most of this negativity manifest.  By next year, Mercury will have moved past 4 Sagittarius and thus there is a chance that stocks will begin to rebound.  Saturn will still be close in its alignment with Rahu and Mars of course, but there may be less bearishness.  And we can see that progressed Venus (14 Capricorn) is approaching its aspect with Jupiter (17 Cancer).  This will be exact in 2016 so that offers some evidence that China's stock market is more likely to rebound after 2014.  It likely will not be enough to recapture the enthusiasm of the parabolic rally of 2006-2007 but it may at least provide a break from its bear market doldrums for a while.   The looming progressed Sun-Saturn conjunction is likely to undermine any major rallies, however.  This Sun-Saturn conjunction will be exact in 2020 and will activate Rahu and Mars since neither planet will have moved very far in the progressed chart.  This looks like another low point for the stock market in China.  


Financial Markets Update

US stocks were mostly mixed last week as the market pondered more soft Chinese economic data.  The Dow nonetheless closed at another all-time high at 16,583.  Indian stocks fared better on anticipation of a big BJP win in the Lok Sabha elections.  The Sensex climbed more 2% closing at 22,994.  I thought we might have seen a little more negativity given the growing Mars and Saturn influences but it seems that Jupiter's uplifting effects may well last into its aspect with Saturn on May 24th.  While US blue chips have maintained their lofty levels in the wake of the Jupiter alignment and the Grand Cross in late April, most other stocks have declined.

This week looks more favorable given the late week conjunction of Venus and Uranus.  Venus tends to have a positive effect on sentiment and this is even more likely here given the broader approximate alignment with Jupiter and Pluto.  Wednesday's alignment of the Sun, Moon and Saturn may coincide with some sober second thoughts, however.

The MERS virus arrives in the US: what is the threat?

(4 May 2014)  The US recorded its first case of MERS this week as an Indiana man returning from a visit to Saudi Arabia came down with the mysterious virus and was hospitalized.  He is said to be recovering and out of danger.  MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) is a new and deadly virus that has sickened more than 400 people, of whom a quarter have died since 2012.  MERS has similar features to the SARS virus that caused a worldwide travel alert in 2003.  While the MERS virus seems to be inefficiently transmitted and thus has remained fairly contained within Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, its high mortality rate is cause for concern.  But just how much of a threat is MERS?

In a previous article on SARS, I noted how global epidemics may be more likely to occur when the planet Neptune is prominent in some way, either by transit or within the national horoscopes of affected countries.  Although it is not always a malefic influence in our lives, Neptune is the planet most closely associated with disease and weakness.   When Neptune is in a close angular relationship with negative planets such as Saturn or the nodes, Rahu and Ketu, it tends to correlate with problems -- either diseases, floods, or even political scandals.  In addition to disease, Neptune is said to rule liquids and situations of deception and intrigue.  We should also note its more problematic side when it is placed in a negative dussthana house (6,8,12).  In the chart of an individual, a poorly placed Neptune can correspond with chronic disease or weakness.  It also tends to be prominent in the charts of people who abuse drugs and alcohol. 

By way of historic comparison, we can see that Neptune was quite prominent during the SARS outbreak in early 2003 (The above planetary listing is for March 12, 2003 when the WHO issued a worldwide alert).  First, transiting Neptune was sitting almost exactly on the ecliptic, i.e. the horizontal plane of the Sun and the solar system.  In common astrological measurement, Neptune's latitude was +00°01.  Due to Neptune's very slow velocity, Neptune was within two arc minutes of the ecliptic for all of 2003 during the SARS crisis.  This was a very rare event since Neptune only crosses the ecliptic at 00°00 once every 85 years or so.  In fact, the last time Neptune conjoined the ecliptic was in 1918-1919 at the time of the "Spanish Flu" pandemic that killed 50 million people.  Another way of expressing this ecliptic conjunction is that Neptune was transiting near its planetary node at 18 Capricorn.  Like the Moon, each planet has a pair of nodes.  Neptune's north and south nodes are around 18 Cancer and 18 Capricorn.  Whenever Neptune comes close to these points in the sky, we are more likely to see some obvious manifestation of its energy, whether it be an epidemic or flood.

The other thing worth noting about Neptune and the SARS epidemic was that Neptune was afflicted in the New Year's chart for January 1, 2003 at midnight.  Neptune (15 Capricorn) was aspected by both Rahu (14 Taurus) and Saturn (0 Gemini).  Rahu (North Lunar Node) is considered a natural malefic and casts a full strength 120 degree trine aspect.  Rahu-Neptune aspects would tend to bring out the dangerous side of Neptune, especially since Rahu symbolizes unboundedness.  This may have played a role in the inability of health authorities to control the epidemic which spread to many countries outside China including Canada, the US and Australia.  Saturn's 135 degree ("sesquisquare") aspect is not a full strength aspect but it is almost exact and therefore was likely a key part of the SARS puzzle from an astrological perspective.  Traditional Vedic astrologers should note that the 135 degree aspect between two planets in the natal chart produces a conjunction in the D-8 ashtamsa divisional chart.  The D-8 chart is associated with troubles and obstacles, not unlike the 8th house.

The current planetary situation for MERS looks less afflicted.  Neptune is not near its nodes (i.e. the ecliptic) so that should lessen the severity of this outbreak.  However, we can see that Neptune is afflicted in the 2014 New Year's chart.  Neptune (9 Aquarius) comes under the disruptive aspect of Rahu (11 Libra) and Neptune is placed in the 6th house of health and disease.  While the absence of any aspect from Saturn is favourable, Neptune is sitting very close to the equal house cusp of the 6th house not only for this year but for 2015 and likely 2016 as well.  Neptune moves only two degrees per year and where the locational Ascendant is near 15 Virgo, Neptune will have a potentially harmful effect on health.  The Ascendant varies a few degrees from country to country in the New Year's chart in any given year, usually close to mid-Virgo.  

The bottom line here is that the planetary picture suggests that MERS will not be as bad as SARS, nor thankfully, as the 1918 flu.  This is perhaps already evident given its relatively lower profile over the past two years.   Experts may still fear it could mutate into something more easily transmissible but the astrological evidence, such as it is, does not support that view.   However, the persistence of Neptune's placement in the 6th house of the New Year's chart suggests that MERS and perhaps other epidemics will remain a significant concern through 2014.  September and October this year could be times when MERS comes into sharper focus given the partial aspects of Saturn and Rahu to Neptune at that time.  Looking ahead, I would note that Saturn forms a forward square aspect with Neptune late in 2015 and through much of 2016.  This could increase the likelihood of suffering and harm from Neptune-related situations like disease and flood.  Neptune will also be conjoined by Ketu in mid- to late-2016 so that could be a time when humanity is more vulnerable to MERS or some other viral disease or collective illness.


Financial Markets Update

Despite ongoing worries over Ukraine, US stocks moved higher last week on strong earnings reports.  The Dow hit a new all-time high and closed up 1% at 16,512.  Indian stocks slipped on pre-election profit taking with the Sensex ending the week at 22,403.  I had suggested the week would be fairly mixed given the positive and negative short term aspects here. I did wonder what effect, if any, the separating Jupiter-Uranus aspect might have on optimism and stock prices.  So far, we would have to say that there hasn't been much change in the generally sunny disposition of most global investors.  The separation of this Jupiter aspect is a gradual process so we should not be surprised if nothing much happens in the near term.  Over the medium term, however, I would be more skeptical about the ability for stocks to remain at these lofty levels.  Of course, some location conditions such as the Indian election and the probability of a BJP win could temporarily offset any diminution of the bullish Jupiter influence.

This week looks a little more bearish as the Sun lines up against Saturn and Venus begins to oppose Mars.  Both of these pairings look difficult.  Early week gains are possible, however, as the Sun aligns with Jupiter.

Tensions rise in Ukraine as Putin weighs his options

(26 April 2014)  The Ukraine Crisis remained front and center last week as Russian troops massed on its eastern border while NATO beefed up its military presence in nearby Poland.  Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be ignoring diplomatic efforts and Western economic sanctions aimed at defusing the situation as the world is entering a new and dangerous Cold War 2.0.  Putin seems unwilling to accept the new pro-Western government in Kiev and is giving aid to pro-Russian factions in Eastern Ukraine.  If Russia sends its army into Ukraine, it would mark a new phase in the crisis which will send shock waves throughout the world. 

As I have written previously, the current Mars retrograde cycle is one possible culprit for this geopolitical impatience and brinksmanship.  Mars turned retrograde back on March 1st and will culminate its backwards journey through the sky on May 20th.  Mars retrograde may be less about the implications of the backward direction of the red, warrior planet than its velocity.  When a planet is retrograde, it is moving more slowly than normal.  As a rule, slower moving planets have more energy and become more prominent in their effects.  It is not too surprising that this slow moving Mars is correlating to a greater sense of conflict and an inability to compromise. 

This is even more the case, perhaps, because we see that Mars is moving through the sign of sidereal Virgo which is key in the horoscope of Vladimir Putin. Putin was born with four planets in Virgo including the Sun, the planetary seat of the ego.  As Mars is due to remain in the sign of Virgo until June, it seems less likely that Putin will be in favour of compromise.  Remember, too, that Putin's Sun is closely conjunct Saturn, the planet of control.  Putin's Sun (20 Virgo) has been highlighted by the Grand Cross alignment at 19 degrees so it is perhaps not too surprising that he is under a lot of stress at the moment.   With his Sun exactly opposite transiting Uranus and exactly square Pluto, he is more prone to sudden actions, unconventional behaviour, and intense coercive situations.   While he may appear to be playing the strongman to Obama's more cautious reactive approach, this planetary pattern does not seem favourable to him.  Putin's Mars-Sun aspect encourages vitality and the expression of energy but the Uranus influence may push him towards unpredictable actions.  In more peaceable individuals, the Mars aspect could manifest as initiative directed towards constructive change.  In more stubborn Sun-Saturn individuals like Putin, however, Mars may be activating his need to make decisions on his own to protect his narrow interests. 

We can consult the horoscope of Ukraine for further clues about whether Russia will invade. As I have noted previously, Ukraine's revolution in February occurred just as transiting Saturn formed a near-exact square alignment with the Moon.  As the crisis has unfolded over the past two months, Mars has moved back through Virgo and has thereby aspected the North Node, Rahu, through its square aspect.  This is a very apt aspect for an ongoing situation that is marked with instability and violence.  During the course of the Mars retrograde cycle, Ukraine has seen its province of Crimea taken over by Russia as well as ongoing unrest in eastern cities like Donetsk.  The other key affliction here is that Ketu, the South Node, is in tight trine aspect with the stellium in early Leo, Jupiter, Mercury, Venus and the Sun.  Ketu is a tricky influence at the best of times but it is in Aries here, which is ruled by Mars and Mars, of course, is too strong by virtue of its retrograde motion and destabilized by its opposition with Uranus.  That is a fairly problematic chain of significations for Ketu and hence its aspect to those four Leo planets is one big reason why the crisis is not abating.

I am expecting the crisis to reach its peak tension in mid-May just before Mars returns to direct motion.  Mars is due to station direct at 15 Virgo on 19-20 May.  This will form an exact square aspect to the Ascendant (15 Sagittarius) as well as Uranus (16 Sagittarius).  Mars will be at its maximum intensity at this time so we should expect for an increase in the conflict and a probable rise in violence.  This is another piece of evidence that argues for the crisis to get worse before it gets better.  I would think an invasion by Russia becomes more likely given this very exact Mars-to-Ascendant aspect. 


Financial Markets Update

Despite the saber-rattling in Russia, markets were mostly flat last week as positive earnings reports kept buyers interested.  The Dow edged lower closing at 16,361 while the Indian Sensex moved slightly higher to 22,688.  The midweek Grand Cross alignment did not live up to its hype as markets did not move much.  While I thought this pattern could be significant, I was not convinced that we were going to see any big developments.  This skeptical view turned out to be correct as we only saw weakness come into the stock market in the late week. 

Interestingly, we are now on the leeward side of the Jupiter aspects to Uranus and Pluto as the Grand Cross begins to separate.  While these planetary alignments may not be reliable enough to set your watch to, they are useful barometers for general trends in sentiment.  When Jupiter forms a close angle with one or more of the outer planets, then markets tend to rise.  When it moves past the angle, markets become more tentative.  We are now entering into a post-Jupiter aspect phase now so there may be less bullish optimism available for investors to tap into. 

Aside from the possible diminishing influence of Jupiter, this week looks a bit mixed.  Venus enters Pisces on Sunday and Mercury aligns with Jupiter early in the week so we could see some upside.  However, we should note that Mars aligns with the Sun also during the week so that could coincide with more uncertainty and some downside.  It will be an informative test of the residual strength of post-Jupiter alignment this week.