Stocks stay firm after Venus retrograde

US stocks edged higher last week on the hope that the Federal Reserve
would undertake a new round of stimulus measures to revive the flagging
economy. Despite the the deepening of concern over the foreclosure
scandal that implicates many large banks, the Dow closed slightly higher
at 11,062 and the S&P500 finished the week at 1176. It was a somewhat
different story in India, however, as investors took profits on worries
the rising Rupee might undermine exports and outsourcing. The BSE
Sensex lost 1% to close at 20,2125 and the Nifty ended Friday's session
at 6062. This was our first glimpse at the possible effects of the
Venus retrograde period (Oct 7 - Nov 18) and the results were a little
underwhelming. A change in direction in Venus might have corresponded
with the rally coming to an end and prices moving lower. It's harder to
make that argument now since prices have generally drifted higher,
albeit not by much. Last week's Mars aspects on Monday and Friday saw
some weakness, especially in India, although the early week period was
fairly strong. The midweek Venus-Uranus aspect did correlate nicely
with Wednesday's big gain.

This rally that began in September is largely rooted in the assumption
that Ben Bernanke will continue to pump liquidity into the system in
order to stave off a deflationary spiral. With interest rates near
zero, stocks become a very attractive investment, especially as the US
Dollar is on the verge of turning into a Third World currency. This
belief in the power of cheap, risk-free government money to paper over
any economic shortcomings might be linked to the recent Jupiter-Uranus
conjunction that was exact in September. Jupiter symbolizes expansion
and wealth, while Uranus embodies the notion of risk and excitement.
Together, these planets increase the appetite for risk and may well
reflect the market's infatuation with the Fed's intention to "pump it
up", regardless of the consequences. While this conjunction is now
separating and therefore weakening, there seems to be a continued
reservoir of belief in this 'glass as half-full' approach. The
retrograde motion of Venus offered the possibility that the current
approach to shopping, buying and the valuation process may be undergoing
some kind of change or review.

This week has an unusually high number of close aspects involving both
Jupiter and Saturn. On the face of it, it would seem that the optimists
may claim bragging rights as Monday's Sun-Jupiter aspect inclines
towards the bullish camp. Wednesday's Mars-Jupiter aspect appears to
support wise (Jupiter) actions (Mars) and in the past often coincides
with gains. In between these configurations is more of a mixed picture,
however, as Venus is in aspect with Saturn in the midweek and
afterwards. The Mars-Neptune square late on Friday also seems more
negative as actions may lose their focus or be subordinated by hidden or
deceptive means. And with Mars simultaneously in a harmonic aspect with
Saturn here, the late week period could be significantly negative.

"The only principle that does not inhibit progress is: anything goes".
-- Paul Feyerabend

US Stocks rise into Venus retrograde

Despite another bad employment report, stocks moved higher last week on the likelihood of further Fed stimulus measures. The Dow rose 2% on the week to close at 11,006 while the S&P500 finished at 1165. It was a different story in Mumbai as Indian stocks lost 1% as the Sensex ended the week at 20,250 and the Nifty at 6103. Gold also surged to new highs near $1350 as more investors abandoned the US Dollar in favour of safer havens. I thought the early week conjunction between Venus and Mars would generate some skittishness and we did see stocks fall on Monday and into Tuesday in Asia when the aspect was exact. As noted last week, the midweek Sun-Venus aspect also appeared to correlate quite well with the big rise on Tuesday in the US and Wednesday in India. The late week period tilted towards the negative with the approach of Friday's Venus retrograde station. I had wondered if Friday might be significant in some way, either with a major move or perhaps in hindsight through the marking of a high point. For US markets, Friday was quite positive as a key technical resistance level was broken to the upside. Of course, it remains to be seen if this will mark any kind of high point here.

This week we will get our first look at the quality of the six-week Venus retrograde cycle. In addition, the planet Mars will figure prominently in the sky as it forms aspects with the Sun and Mercury. Owing to its often excessive nature, Mars is usually a negative influence so that stacks the deck somewhat towards the negative. A minor Sun-Mars aspect occurs on Monday while the late week features a Mercury-Mars aspect. As a rough rule of thumb, Mercury-Mars aspects are often more damaging. In between these Martian power plays, the midweek aspect between Venus and Uranus may offer some relief, so that could boost sentiment on either Tuesday or Wednesday.

The gold rally is taking on a life of its own over the past month as the US Dollar is being unceremoniously dumped around the world. With the US Federal Reserve promising to stimulate the economy without limit, there is a growing risk of inflation and Dollar devaluation. The growing currency instability is not a positive sign for long term global financial prospects as the falling Dollar is causing severe problems for export-driven economies. The main beneficiary of the falling Dollar has been gold as prices have risen 20% over the summer. In astrological terms, part of the reason for the run-up was likely the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction which encouraged speculative activity. Now that that aspect is losing steam here, we may wonder how much higher gold can go in the short term. Venus may also be relevant to the gold story here since it is symbolic of luxuries. On the face of it, retrograde Venus may not be very good for gold, although the fact that the cycle will take place in the sidereal Libra may lessen the damage that would otherwise be forthcoming.

"People always say that time changes things, but you actually have to change them yourself." -- Andy Warhol

Stocks flat ahead of Venus retrograde; Mars strengthens

Stocks took a breather from their recent rally last week as mixed economic signals lessened the appetite for risk. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down slightly for the week at 10,829 while the S&P500 closed at 1146. Indian stocks fared better, however, as they extended their impressive winning streak for another week with the Sensex gaining 2% at 20,445 with the Nifty finishing at 6143. While the US market was more tentative last week, I thought we might get more bearishness on the Saturn-Ketu square aspect. Friday's positive performance across the board also seemed anomalous given the apparently negative Sun-Saturn conjunction that day. Sometimes these aspects act as reversal points rather than simple market correlates although the latter view is somewhat more common. Moreover, the ability of these planets to move sentiment is also contingent on any forthcoming alignments. With the retrograde cycle of Venus beginning on Friday, October 8, we have to wonder if the whole Saturn-for-Jupiter hand off scenario could be forestalled until then.

Not only will we have the beginning of the Venus retrograde cycle this week, but it is important to note that Venus will be in close conjunction with Mars. Given the red planet's reputation for nastiness, this could have a onerous effect on Venusian activities such as spending, buying and enjoying luxuries. Mars is an active energy so it may well increase trade volume here, and there is an unreliable, erratic quality to Mars that could take things off the rails. The combination of these two measurements therefore increases the likelihood of price declines through the week. The Venus-Mars conjunction is exact on Sunday, so that could inflict damage on Monday's market. We can spot a passing Sun-Venus aspect on Tuesday and Wednesday that could inject some optimism in the equation. The late week period will center around the end of the forward motion of Venus on Friday and the commencement of its backward journey through sidereal Libra that lasts until November 18. It's worth noting that the last Venus retrograde cycle occurred at an important reversal in the market in March 2009. At that time, Venus began its retrograde cycle on March 7, just one day after the stock market reached its lowest point in the market meltdown that began in 2008. While these reversals in planetary direction do not always correlate with changes in market directions, they nonetheless increase the likelihood of such a shift in sentiment especially if coming after an established trend has been in a place for a while as we have now.

Friday also has the distinction of a Mercury-Saturn conjunction. As the planet of trading and commerce, Mercury's contacts with pessimistic Saturn often translate into selloffs as news of reduced economic activity may tilt the mood toward caution. Conjunctions are somewhat less negative than other aspects, however, so we will have to see how this plays out. But the fact that it is coming the same day as the Venus retrograde increases the potential for something significant to occur, either at the time or in hindsight.

"One may understand the cosmos, but never the ego; the self is more distant than any star." --G.K. Chesterton

Jupiter boosts stocks; Saturn prepares for Ketu

The September rally took another step higher last week as positive housing and manufacturing data persuaded more investors to buy in. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2% to close at 10,860 while the S&P500 finished at 1148. It was much the same story in Mumbai, as Indian equities continued their torrid pace with the Sensex again reaching the 20,000 plateau for the first time since January 2008. The Sensex closed Friday at 20,045 and the Nifty ended at 6018. Not to be outdone, gold futures touched $1300 an ounce and made a new all-time high. The Jupiter-Uranus conjunction is the gift that keeps on giving as the last weekend's conjunction is still overflowing with sunny optimism and an appetite for risk-taking. The early week gains arrived more or less on schedule as Tuesday's Sun-Jupiter aspect produced the expected gains. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke reaffirmed his commitment for further stimulus measures to prevent a deflationary spiral from taking hold in the event of further sluggishness in the US economy. While the market had risen into his afternoon announcement, stocks embarked on a modest selloff afterwards and this down trend continued into Thursday. Friday's gains provided further evidence of the strength of Jupiter here despite the fact the conjunction is now separating.

This week offers another opportunity for a change in the trend as Saturn is thrust into the spotlight through its square aspect with Ketu, the South Lunar Node. As the planetary maestro of pessimism, Saturn's relative strength in the sky is an important indicator of where sentiment is tilting. When Saturn is prominent through the formation of significant angles with other planets, then the odds of a decline increase. When Saturn is tucked away into the background, then optimism has a better chance to flourish. The Saturn-Ketu aspect this week combines two clearly negative energies so caution and fear are more likely to manifest. That said, these two slow moving planets sometimes require a third planet to release their karmic payload. On paper, the role of that third planet may well be assumed by the Sun as it conjoins Saturn in sidereal Virgo on Friday. So the end of the week could be significant in terms of marking a trend change. To make things more interesting, Friday will be the first day of October and the first day of the fourth quarter. With the possibility of end of quarter window dressing, the new quarter may kick off with a bang. It will bear close watching.



"Man only likes to count his troubles, but he does not count his joys." -- Fyodor Dostoyevsky

Stocks running on Jupiter; Saturn waits its turn

Stocks moved mostly higher last week as growth prospects in emerging economies lifted sentiment. In New York, the Dow was higher by more than 1% closing at 10,606 while the S&P500 finished at 1125. In Mumbai, the atmosphere was almost euphoric as India continued to attract interest from foreign institutions. The Sensex jumped another 4% to close at 19,594 as the Nifty ended the week at 5884. Gold also made new all-time highs closing near $1280. Market sentiment appears to be flourishing under the protective umbrella of the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction as stocks have rallied off their late August lows. While I expected this pairing would act as a sort of insurance policy against any major declines, its ability to block out most other influences has been a little surprising. What was less surprising, however, was the early week strength that coincided with the Mars-Jupiter aspect. If the market was set to rise, this seemed like the combination to do it. However, we didn't get much negativity afterwards despite more aspect activity involving bearish Saturn.

So when it all this Jupiterian optimism going to end? Next week will offer more clues to that question since we will be in the post-conjunction phase of the Jupiter-Uranus aspect. As a rule of thumb, planetary aspects begin to lose their power only after they are exact and begin to separate. Today, September 18, Jupiter exactly conjoins Uranus. By next week, it will slowly begin to move away from Uranus and thereby begin the process through which its energy begins to fade. Well, that's the theory anyway. There are many exceptions here, but it is nonetheless worth considering. And while Jupiter's optimism may be waning, gloomy Saturn maybe ready to assume a larger role. While the aspects with fast-moving Mercury and Venus did not deliver much in the way of caution, Saturn gets another opportunity to strut its stuff thought its square aspect with Ketu -- aka the South Lunar Node. The aspect is exact on September 27 and is perhaps a more reliably bearish influence since Ketu is considered a malefic planet, just as Saturn is. by contrast, both Mercury and Venus are both considered benefic influences. In this case, then, malefic planet + malefic planet = a very negative result! Just when the effects of this aspect will be felt is a little unclear since these distant, slow moving planets often require triggers from faster moving planets.

This week promises to be quite eventful. Not only will we get our first glimpse of what a post-Jupiter-Uranus world feels like, but the Sun will aspect this conjunction on Monday and Tuesday. On paper, this is a very bullish alignment that ought to increase risk appetite and put investors in a buying mood. At the same time, there is a sense that this aspect could act as a final cherry on top of the this recent run-up, since after this aspect is out of the way, there won't be much else Jupiter can do for an encore. This sense of finality is reinforced since Saturn-Ketu looms just two degrees out of range waiting to assume center stage. To add to the excitement, there is also a tight Venus-Ketu aspect in the early part of the week that may distort buying patterns in some way. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is due to speak Tuesday, so the fate of the markets may well hinge on his comments. If he offers new stimulus measures to boost the sagging economy, there is a chance for a sudden rally. But with Venus harmed by Ketu's aspect, I wonder how long that buying opportunity may last. Days, hours, or even just minutes? There is an instability here that would seem to incompatible with a durable rally, both in the economy and the stock market. Tuesday should be very interesting indeed. I would not be surprised with any outcome, but I do think the market is quite vulnerable here.

"In practice, randomness is fundamentally incomplete information."
-- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Stocks rise on Venus-Jupiter; Mercury turns direct this week

Stocks edged higher in the US last week despite government reports indicating the recovery would be slower than expected. After putting in a losing day Tuesday, stocks rebounded and closed slightly higher for the week with the Dow standing at 10,462 and the S&P500 at 1109. In Mumbai, buyers came out in force as the Sensex rose more than 3% before closing at 18,799 while the Nifty finished at 5640. The continued optimism in the market was not surprising given the alignment of Venus, Jupiter and Uranus that was at its closest on Tuesday and Wednesday. Since both Venus and Jupiter are benefic planets, a rise was the most likely outcome here although there were locally unique expressions of this bullish energy. Most of the rise in Indian markets arrived on Monday while the US rallied more strongly on Wednesday. Interestingly, we saw very little evidence later in the week of the approaching aspect between Mercury and Saturn. Normally, this combination would tend to depress sentiment.

As the market mood remains relatively buoyant, we have to look no further than the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction for its source. Once these two planets exactly conjoin on September 18, however, this optimism may begin to wane as Jupiter starts to move away. A weaker and less prominent Jupiter could mean that gains will be harder to come by in the near term. At the same time, bearish Saturn may be strengthening as it is in aspect with both Mercury and Venus this week and then it forms a square aspect with the Moon's Nodes, Rahu and Ketu, on September 27. A stronger Saturn often translates into a falling stock market, although there are some exceptions to that notion. Nonetheless, the simultaneous weakening of Jupiter and strengthening of Saturn would appear to limit the upside here.

This week we have the somewhat unusual phenomenon of two planets reversing their directions with days of each other. Mercury ends its retrograde cycle on Sunday while Pluto ends its retrograde cycle on Tuesday. Reversals in planetary direction can sometimes reflect reversals in market trends, so we should be aware that there is an increased possibility of a change in the prevailing mood. At the same time, aspects are usually more reliable indicators of sentiment, even if their influence may be fairly brief. On that score, we can see a close aspect between Mars, Jupiter and Uranus early in the week (especially Monday) that could mimic some of last week's rise. The difference here, however, is that Mercury is sitting very close to an aspect with Saturn through the whole week. I thought some of this caution might enter the equation last week but it seems we may have to wait until this week. The aspect isn't exact until Wednesday, though, so perhaps the midweek period is a more probable window for it. Later in the week, we get another dose of Saturn as Venus moves into aspect. Even against the backdrop of Jupiter-Uranus optimism, all this Saturn should find a negative expression in the markets sometime this week.

"All money is a matter of belief." --Adam Smith

Stocks rise as Venus enters Libra; Mars follows this week

Some mildly encouraging US economic data made the glass look half-full again last week as investors pushed stocks higher. After early weakness, the Dow gained more than 3% to close at 10,447 while the S&P500 ended the week at 1104. In Mumbai, the Sensex added 1% closing at 18,221 with the Nifty finishing at 5479. In last week's post, I noted how the entry of Venus into sidereal Libra on Wednesday would tend to be positive for the stock market. Venus, the planet of shopping, can more readily deliver its positive energy when in the conducive environment of Libra. Wednesday saw stocks around the world rise with the Dow gaining almost 3% in a single day. It was an intriguing reminder just how neatly these sidereal ingresses can work. Unfortunately, they don't always work this way (alas, astrology is rarely simple), and hence I was tentative about the prospect for gains last week given the range of factors, both positive and negative.

After bouncing off a key support level early on, stocks appear to have embarked on a new up trend as we enter September. The month of August was quite bearish for the market as stocks in the US fell up to 7%. What is interesting here is the correlation with the planet Venus and its transit of sidereal Virgo. It entered Virgo on August 1 and completed its transit of this sign on September 1 when it then entered Libra. As I pointed out in my July 31 update, Venus typically does not do well in Virgo where it is said to be debilitated and this may constrict spending and act as a depressive factor upon stocks. So that's a nice correlation of a very negative outcome (-7%) with a debilitated Venus. Even more provocative is the fact that the market made an interim high within a few days of the entry of Venus into Virgo and it made a low on the last day that Venus was in Virgo. Of course, this is only one data point and can still be written off as coincidence, particularly given the other bearish aspects I have noted through last month. I'm certainly not so blinded by the stars to I can't acknowledge that coincidences do happen, not everything is meaningful and that some things are simply random noise. Still, it's interesting.

We will see the effects of another ingress this week as Mars follows Venus into sidereal Libra on Monday. Whereas Venus is a benefic planet that generally lifts prices, Mars is a malefic planet that should be considered a negative influence. There are a couple of complicating factors here, however, that may undermine the transparency of the effects of Mars. First, US markets are closed for Labor Day Monday, so other markets may be the ones to experience any effects. Second, and more importantly, Venus forms a minor aspect with both Uranus and then Jupiter early in the week. Two out of these three planets are benefics and in such a situation, Uranus often acts as a booster rocket that generates optimism that leads to more buying and rising prices. So these two forces are somewhat at odds with each other -- Monday's Mars ingress and then Tuesday and Wednesday's Venus-Jupiter-Uranus alignment. Perhaps the market will simply take their cues sequentially with weakness evident on Monday but recovery into midweek. Astrology rarely operates to simply, but it may be useful to think heuristically here. Later in the week, Mercury slows down ahead of the culmination of its retrograde cycle on Sunday and will form a fairly close aspect with Saturn. Saturn usually does not blend well with Mercury so this may coincide with greater caution.

In the background, of course, Jupiter is inching closer to its conjunction with Uranus and is now just one degree away. This bullish planetary combination comes exact on September 18 so that will tend to keep any down moves from going too far and may act as a reservoir of optimism in the event of any passing rallies.


"Theory helps us to bear our ignorance of facts." -- George Santayana