Jupiter, and then Saturn

Stocks mostly treaded water last week as mixed earnings reports did not provide a sufficient push in either direction. In New York, the Dow closed at 10,609 while the S&P finished Friday at 1136. It was much the same story in Mumbai as investors were reluctant to extend the rally further. The Sensex ended the week at 17,554 and the Nifty at 5252. It seems we had something of a celestial saw-off, as the series of apparently positive aspects involving the Sun and Venus with slower moving planets was offset by the stations of Saturn and Mercury and Friday's disruptive solar eclipse. While I had been agnostic about the overall outcome here, I was a little disappointed by the relatively small moves on most days, with Friday being a significant exception as the New York market declined. The loss was in keeping with the general tone of a Mercury Direct station conjunct Pluto square Saturn. This definitely qualified as a "not very nice" combination, especially when you factor in the simultaneous solar eclipse. Whether these changes in planetary directions may mark a top to the market remains to be seen. Certainly, the market did not advance after Wednesday's Saturn station, but it's early days so we will have to wait and see.

This week again offers broadly offsetting influences. The early week seems to be dominated by the double aspecting of Jupiter by the Sun and Venus. Whenever Jupiter is involved, we can expect optimism and expansion to be more prominent. These are only minor 30 degree aspects so we may not see much in the way of upward lift here. But is there enough planetary fuel for stocks to rise to new highs? Hard to say, but if it going to happen, it will likely happen by Wednesday. That's because later in the week Saturn looks to be more the focus as Venus will form a trine aspect on Thursday and the Sun will follow suit on Friday. Saturn inclines towards caution and pessimism, so it is often correlated with declines.

Gold made another rally attempt last week but failed to go anywhere. As I expected, Gold was a little higher on Monday's Sun-Venus-Rahu conjunction but sellers moved in after that. Interestingly, prices started to slump as soon as Venus began separating from the Sun. Since the Sun is generally viewed as the planetary significator for gold, the gradual loss of the favourable influence of Venus coincided with falling prices. Not even some positive aspects with Uranus and Neptune were enough to put gold back into the plus column. This week could see another day or two of good gains on the Sun-Jupiter aspect but gold has lost an important planetary ally now that Venus has moved on so it's unclear how much of a rebound it can have this week.

Saturn Rx, Mercury D near solar eclipse

Stocks started 2010 on a positive note as encouraging US retail numbers brought in new buyers eager to participate in the economic recovery. In New York, the Dow was up 2% to 10,618 while the S&P fared somewhat better and closed at 1144. In Mumbai, the enthusiasm was a little more subdued as valuation worries kept a lid on things with the Sensex edging higher to 17,540 and the Nifty to 5244. Certainly, I had expected some upside from the close Sun-Mercury-Venus conjunction in the early going since Venus usually brings some element of joy to the proceedings. But the extent of Monday's gain in New York was definitely food for thought as the positive Venus energy manifested before its exact conjunction. Another reminder perhaps that no matter how precise we can do the mathematics in planetary geometry, there are always other unknown and largely unknowable "X" factors that are part of the equation that make forecasting such a challenge. I wonder if Donald Rumsfeld ever pondered astrology's "unknown unknowns". The latter part of the week saw a little more negativity and this correlated fairly well with the minor Mars aspect to the Sun and Venus. Overall, last week's extension of the rally showed how little the medium term influences have changed. The recent Mars and Mercury retrogrades have not provided enough counterbalance to the pervasive optimism of the rough alignment of Jupiter, Neptune, Uranus (and Chiron) near the same degree of their respective signs. Jupiter is now moving away from Neptune so this should eventually weaken the bullish pattern, but it is not clear when the supports will fall away.

This week will be an interesting test of that status quo optimism as we will see two planets change direction very close to a solar eclipse. With the Sun now conjunct Venus, we can see how this can produce a happy mood which could correlate with rising prices. On Monday, however, the Sun-Venus tandem will conjoin Rahu (North Lunar Node) at 27 degrees of sidereal Sagittarius. Rahu can be a disruptive influence although if it is in proximity to benefic planets like Venus, it can often be swayed to go over the bright side of life. Sun-Venus will also form supporting aspects to Uranus and Neptune early this week so that is another positive influence. Since gold is represented by the Sun, the ongoing conjunction of Venus will likely take gold prices higher in the short term. Once Venus begins to pull away, however, gold's fortunes may become more uncertain.

Saturn will turn retrograde on Wednesday and begin its five-month backward journey through early sidereal Virgo. When planets change direction, there can be a subtle shift in mood and purpose so these retrograde stations need to be watched carefully for clues of new market trends. If the market has been rising going up leading into a significant retrograde station, then stocks may be more vulnerable to pullbacks afterwards. While there is a certain deductive and holistic appeal to this position, it's important to remember that the correlation is very loose in practice. Like most probabilistic astrological measurements, it is only one factor out of many. What makes this Saturn station more noteworthy, however, is that it occurs just as the Moon, Mercury and Pluto are all in tense square aspect. This is an unusual circumstance and may well indicate some sudden increase in pessimism or misapplication of authority in some area. Friday is no less interesting as Mercury ends its retrograde cycle in square aspect with Saturn on the same day as a solar eclipse. That is also quite an unusual circumstance and warrants close attention in terms of potentially marking any changes in market direction. All in all, it should be a very compelling week as several positive aspects are tightly intermingled with a couple not-very-nice patterns.

2010 begins with Sun-Mercury-Venus conjunction

As if to underscore the resuscitation of the global economy in 2009, stocks hit their highs for the year last week in advance of the New Year's holiday. In New York, the Dow finally settled off its highs Thursday at 10,428 while the S&P closed at 1115. In Mumbai, equities were up over 80% for the year as the Sensex finished the year at 17,464 while the Nifty closed at 5201. The strength of the market through the second half of December presents a real puzzle, as the number of bearish influences appeared to be growing while the bullish influences were on the wane. In addition to the Mars retrograde cycle which began on Dec 20, Mercury also turned retrograde on Dec 26. Neither of these is usually considered favourable for stocks, although it should be noted that their direct temporal effects are more amorphous than, say, a planetary aspect. The Venus-Saturn-Pluto alignment on Dec 28-29 corresponded with continued strength, although future events may reveal this pattern as pivotal moment where trends were reversed, rather than anything especially bullish. Lurking in the background, the afterglow of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction, now two degrees past exactitude and still apparently fueling the optimism of prevailing market sentiment.

The extended conjunction between Jupiter, the planet of expansion and wealth, and Neptune, the planet of idealism and dreams, has been a key part of the economic recovery this year. Back in late 2008 near the depths of the meltdown, I expected this conjunction to boost the market through much of 2009 and thought that Dow 10,000 would be a possible target. While that target has been achieved, I have to honestly say that I never expected the stock rally to last this long. Between the Saturn-Uranus opposition in September and November's Saturn-Pluto I thought we would see markets subject to greater stress. This hasn't happened as corrections have been relatively mild due in part to the lengthy contact between Jupiter and Neptune, with a close 30 degree aspect from Uranus lending a helping hand.

2010 begins with a close triple conjunction of Sun, Mercury and Venus early in the week. Sun-Mercury conjoin first on Monday with Mercury and Venus coming together on Tuesday. As the planet of commerce and trading, the condition of Mercury is of particular interest. Its inferior conjunction with the Sun is often difficult as close proximity leads to the affliction known as combustion. By contrast, the Venus influence is often positive, as harmonious feelings are more likely to pervade commercial transactions. Later in the week the Sun and Venus form a minor aspect with retrograde Mars. Contacts with a debilitated and retrograde malefic such as Mars are often problematic and this aspect may coincide with sudden events or a sense of urgency. At the same time, the aspect is not a full strength one, so that would tend to mitigate its effects. While the net effect of these short term aspects may well be negative, what is more important is how they will interact with some of the patterns that occur next week. On the 13th, Saturn turns retrograde in close aspect to President Obama's natal Moon (housing market issues?). Then just two days later, Mercury's direct station occurs on the same day as a annular Solar Eclipse at 1 degree of sidereal Capricorn.

January offers more difficult planetary energies that should put pressure on stocks over the near term, but the planetary aspects generally look more difficult later in the year. April and May will see a very awkward looking Saturn-Uranus-Neptune pattern that will likely prove inimical to further gains. Then the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto t-square will dominate the summer and fall period. This unholy trinity of slow moving bodies is evocative of a state of pessimism and hardship. Although Jupiter will be a frequent visitor in this t-square configuration, it's unclear if its optimism will be enough to induce prices to move higher. Overall, 2010 seems destined to undermine many of the economic gains that were achieved in 2009.

Happy New Year

Next post on Sunday January 3, 2010.

Gold tumbles further, stocks flat

Stocks were mostly flat last week as positive US retail data was offset by renewed worries over government debt levels in vulnerable jurisdictions like Dubai and Greece. Blue chips performed a little better than the broader market as the Dow closed at 10,471 while the S&P finished at 1106. It was much the same story in Mumbai where equities again failed to punch above resistance levels as the Sensex closed at 17,119 and the Nifty 5117. While the early week Mercury-Saturn-Pluto alignment was bearish as expected, the relative easy rebound later on the Sun-Mars aspect demonstrates how much positive planetary energy is still available. No doubt part of the story is the approach of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction which comes exact December 21. These two planets have played a huge role in this rally that dates back to March. Jupiter symbolizes optimism and expansion and Neptune embodies notions of idealism and image. Together, they are a potent combination that says "hope" for the future. It's not a coincidence perhaps that the Copenhagen climate conference is meeting just a few days ahead of the exact conjunction of these idealistic and hopeful planets. President Obama will address the meeting on December 18 at a time when Jupiter and Neptune will be separated by less than half a degree -- sounds like it could be a hopefest -- albeit one motivated by quasi-apocalyptic concerns as Saturn squares Pluto (death and suffering) and Mars (conflict and violence) is almost stationary. In market terms, the presence of this underlying force of Jupiter-Neptune optimism has prevented the more negative aspects from taking the market significantly lower.

This week offers more positive short term aspects as the transiting Sun will form a complex alignment with Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune early in the week. This could well boost stock prices temporarily as well as give a lift to gold, which has been recently beaten down by the rising Dollar. On Wednesday, a New Moon occurs in the first degree of sidereal Sagittarius and is another possible "reset" button for the market. Given that the Sun will be separating from those outer planets, some declines are more likely as the week progresses. That said, Venus is close on the Sun's heels at the moment so by Friday it will be within just two degrees of its minor aspect with Jupiter. These are two bullish planets so it's not unreasonable to expect an up day towards the end of the week.

Besides the upcoming Jupiter-Neptune conjunction, Mars goes retrograde the previous day on Sunday, December 20. We are fast approaching the apex of these two important medium term influences. Financial markets may therefore undergo a substantial re-organization in the very near future. A similar re-ordering of the currency markets just occurred with the Uranus station on December 1 when the Dollar finally reversed its decline as Gold topped out above $1200. With the carry trade now in jeopardy, we could see other important ramifications from the appreciation of the US Dollar.

Dollar strength puts gold rally in jeopardy

The US Dollar showed signs of life late last week as a better than expected jobs report created increased the likelihood of higher interest rate hike. Stocks were generally higher with the Dow trading near 10,500 on several occasions before closing at 10,388 with the S&P at 1105. In Mumbai, positive growth numbers from September lifted shares almost 3% for the week with the Sensex finishing at 17,101 and the Nifty at 5108. While I had been more bearish, the market did generally follow expectations as most of the gains came early in the week on the Mercury aspects to Uranus and Neptune with declines occurring later as the harmonic aspect between Mars and Saturn tightened and Venus came under Saturn's sextile aspect. The most interesting day was Friday as the jobs report brightened the outlook for the Dollar. While stocks were up sharply at the open, profit taking took over and markets slumped after that. This was the first hint perhaps that more good economic news may longer be good for the markets since it risks ending Bernanke's low interest rate regime and the cheap dollar and the resulting carry trade that has fueled the bubble of 2009. After making a high of $1227 on Thursday, Gold plunged over 5% on the renewed enthusiasm for the Dollar.

This week looks more clearly negative, at least in terms of fast moving transits, as two transits will dominate the sky. First, Monday's Mercury-Pluto conjunction may trigger a lot of pessimism due to its 90 degree aspect with Saturn. It's possible that the bearishness may spill into Tuesday since Mercury will still be close enough. The Moon transits Leo early on the week and that may not help matters any since it will be hemmed in between malefics Mars and Saturn. Wednesday's Virgo Moon applies to Saturn is another source of worry since it will again release that problematic Saturn-Pluto energy. The second pattern of significance will be more prominent later in the week as the Sun will form an exact 120 degree aspect with Mars on Thursday. While both planets are natural malefics, it's not clear if this will generate negative market sentiment. It seems there will be enough malefic energy to generate one down day at the end of the week, but we should expect a bounce day here also.

As optimistic Jupiter slowly makes it way towards idealistic Neptune and their conjunction on December 21, it seems likely that we will see another manifestation of this hopeful planetary combination. Off the top, we can see that the Copenhagen climate conference from Dec 7-18 is an embodiment of this idealism and hopefulness as world leaders will once again come together with the best intentions and grapple with this seemingly intractable policy problem. It remains to be seen, however, if anything of substance can be achieved from this meeting. In market terms, the huge bubblicious rally that began back in March can be understood in terms of the initial conjunction between Jupiter and Neptune. Due to retrograde motion, these two planets have been in fairly close proximity with each other for the past eight months. Previously, this optimism manifested as hope for an economic recovery which, in turn, sparked a rally in stocks as investors looked forward to improved corporate earnings. While it is very possible that the December 21 conjunction could coincide with another move higher, there is another plausible interpretation. This time hope for economic recovery may only translate into a higher Dollar since continued good news will boost the greenback. This is exactly what happened on Friday as the Dollar soared against most other world currencies on good employment numbers which increased the likelihood for a rate hike sooner rather than later. But what's good for the Dollar may be bad for stocks because much of the recent rally is rooted in the dollar carry trade. If the dollar continues to appreciate on hopes for a recovery, the carry trade will unwind and this will generate a mass exit from equities. Needless to say, gold is also extremely vulnerable here as the Dollar gets its mojo back.

Market slides after Dubai suspends repayments

Stocks ended down last week as worries over the Dubai debt crisis brought back uncomfortable memories of the meltdown of 2008. After moving higher in the early going New York was mostly unchanged as the Dow closed Friday at 10,309 and the S&P at 1087. Mumbai was lower by 2% as the Sensex ended the week at 16,632 and the Nifty at 4941. I had been more bullish on the Venus influence here and, indeed, the market was generally higher through Wednesday, especially in the US. I was correct in expecting gains Monday in the US on the Moon-Venus-Jupiter aspect, and the market even backed off on cue in the afternoon as the aspect separated. Tuesday did see some of the predicted selling in the morning come to pass on the bearish Sun-Saturn aspect, although I thought the decline might have lasted more into the close. Instead buyers moved back in and bid up prices in the afternoon. Wednesday also went more or less according to plan as stocks rose modestly on the Venus-Uranus-Neptune influence. However, I missed the extent and precise timing of the late week Dubai decline. While I correctly expected Friday to be down on Venus' ingress into Scorpio and the Moon-Saturn-Pluto pattern, the Dubai news broke Thursday. One possible explanation here is that Thursday's Mercury-Mars "trine" (120 degree) aspect also played a key role in changing sentiment. Although the trine is often thought of as a positive aspect, Mars may have been particularly damaging in this instance since it was 1) debilitated in sidereal Cancer and 2) moving more slowly than usual ahead of its retrograde station in mid-December. Given the plausible role of a Mars aspect in this unfolding of the Dubai crisis, this may be a clue that the upcoming Mars retrograde cycle may not be kind to markets.

The main question on investors' minds this week concerns whether the Dubai problem can be contained or whether it will spread like a contagion and expose other areas of financial instability in the global economic system. The planets this week point to the latter scenario as the tense aspects appear to have the upper hand in the near future. Monday could be fairly mixed as we see both negative and positive aspects at work simultaneously. Moon transits Aries in square aspect with Mars but Mercury forms a nice angle with Uranus. The negative may carry the day here, especially in the US, but stocks should move higher going into midweek as the Moon is exalted in Taurus opposite Venus. But even if we see a day or two of gains, I think the overall bias seems negative, with the possibility of a big down day at some point. Mars' minor aspect with Saturn is exact on Friday so that identifies the late week as a potential danger zone.

The potential Dubai default has emerged here as a reasonable catalyst for a significant market correction. Certainly, the planets over the next few weeks would support some kind of pullback. The upcoming Mars retrograde cycle occurs during a tight Saturn-Pluto aspect and even aspects it quite closely if minor aspects and divisional charts are used. This are a very bearish confluence of measurements. At the same time, we still have to try to make sense of the conjunction between Jupiter (growth, wealth) and Neptune (hope, illusion) conjunction that is exact on December 21. This planetary combination of "growth" and "hope" is often correlated with gains and rallies as indeed we saw the rally in spring 2009 largely coinciding with this conjunction. One possible interpretation is that the Jupiter-Neptune rally will occur but it will be squeezed into a relatively short time span in mid-December. It may still be fairly strong in terms of amplitude but its overall effects may be mitigated by losses that occur before and after. Just how this source of positive energy manifests will be an important question in the days ahead. It's conceivable that it won't be enough to move markets very much at all. Instead it may only reflect the role of inflationary (Jupiter+Neptune) spending from huge deficits in the current economic circumstance. We will have to watch this aspect closely as it moves into position in the coming days.