US stocks rise on Mercury-Venus

Stocks powered higher in New York last week on better than expected employment data. Despite some midweek profit taking, the Dow rose 2% to close at 9370 while the S&P finished near a key resistance level of 1010, which was the post-crash November 2008 high. This bullish outcome was more or less in keeping with my forecast last week as the Mercury-Venus aspect provided sufficient optimism to encourage risk takers. More specifically, Monday was up as expected but Thursday's anticipated gain arrived late as markets only rose Friday. In Mumbai, worries over the monsoon trumped global cues as the indexes fell 3-4%. After some early week strength that retested key resistance levels at 4700, the Nifty ended the week at 4481 while the Sensex stood at 15,160. So we did see more upside as forecast although the gains did not hold. Interestingly Thursday was higher intraday but gains disappeared by the close. This was perhaps an instance of a generally favourable transit aspect between Mercury (12 Leo) and Venus (12 Gemini) feeding into the stressful natal position of Saturn (12 Aquarius) to produce a decline instead of a rise.

Now that the triple eclipse series is behind us, we should look at this stock rally as living on borrowed time. The eclipses have lit the fuses and started the timer so it's now only a matter of the right triggering planets coming together to release the explosive bearish energy and push prices down. This week features a couple of very strong aspects which have the potential to move markets in both directions. Mars squares Saturn on Monday but this 90 degree relationship is arguably more effective since they mutually aspect one another according to classical Hindu aspecting rules. Mars casts its 4th house square aspect forward to Saturn and Saturn casts its 10th house square aspect to Mars. Since both planets are malefic, there is a probability for negative fallout here. However, as the week progresses Mars will be influenced by Jupiter's benefic rays so that could change sentiment considerably. This is all the more likely given that the Sun will be part of this multi-planet alignment.

Caveat emptor has never been better advice.

Markets stay bullish; Lunar Eclipse this week

Stocks continued their drift upward last week on better than expected Q2 GDP data in the US. After some midweek bearishness, the Dow closed Friday at 9171 while the S&P stood at 987. In Mumbai, the Sensex touched a 13-month high intraday on Thursday before closing at 15,670 while the Nifty ended the week at 4636. This bullish outcome was mostly in keeping with expectations as the quick succession of Venus and Mercury aspects with Jupiter provided enough optimism to move markets higher. Monday's Mercury-Saturn aspect largely offset the Venus-Jupiter trine as stocks treaded water. As I expected, there was more selling Tuesday and Wednesday in the "hangover" aftermath of that positive configuration. The Mercury-Jupiter aspect on Wednesday and Thursday arrived more or less on schedule, although Wednesday was mostly down. Friday did not see any big declines despite retrograde Jupiter entering sidereal Capricorn, although that is a longer term bearish influence that will be operating for the next several months.

This week we will see the third and last eclipse in this series as a lunar eclipse occurs on Wednesday (EDT) at 19 degrees of Capricorn. Eclipses mark periods of change and instability in the world and this eclipse seems to promise that and more. The previous solar eclipse featured a close Venus-Saturn square which, I argued, foretold of coming problems and losses (Saturn) with financial markets and money (Venus). Well, we will soon see if that interpretation will be borne out by events. This lunar eclipse also has a strong Saturn aspect, this time with Mars. And as (bad) luck would have it, it is also a tense square aspect within three degrees of orb. Mars-Saturn aspects can represent situations of violence, oppression, frustration, and destruction and in the present context may indicate growing geopolitical concerns that could involve military conflict in the coming weeks. On that point, we should note that President Obama's chart is also under a lot of stress in the coming weeks as Saturn and Mercury will conjoin atop his natal Mars. While this pattern may simply represent increased frustration and failure with his health plan reforms (polls indicate he's in trouble on that issue), the Mars factor here opens the possibility of some kind of military or geopolitical problem.

This week the market may well be able to stave off the bears for a little while longer as Mercury moves into aspect with Venus by Friday. We could see some sizable moves in both directions this week, with Monday and Thursday looking the most positive on paper. So I would not be surprised to see more upside here, although with the Mars-Saturn square due to come exact next Monday the 10th and the Mercury-Saturn conjunction on the 18th, all gains should be seen as very temporary indeed. Investors would be well advised to practice their best version of Buddhist non-attachment to any long positions before this rally falls apart.

As the man with the sandwich board sign tells us, the end is nigh.

Stocks continue to rise on Solar Eclipse

With the solar eclipse showing no immediate effects, markets continued their winning ways last week as stocks rose 4% on more good earnings reports. The Dow closed at 9093 while the S&P stood at 979. It was much the same story in Mumbai, as the Nifty climbed to 4568 and the Sensex to 15,378. While the eclipse correlated with modest declines Tuesday and Wednesday in India (but only Wednesday in New York), the apparently unstoppable ebullience highlighted the ongoing influence of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. While the late week gains fell in line with expectations for a bump up from the Sun-Moon parivartana yoga, I thought the eclipse might have claimed more victims. As I have previously noted, eclipses are not atomic clocks and cannot be relied upon to dictate market moves. They are probabilistic instruments not unlike road signs that notify the traveller of trouble ahead ("Construction Zone: next 10 miles"). Just when the trouble will manifest isn't always clear, but that Venus-Saturn square of July 22 does not portend a happy ending to this rally.

This week's planets would appear to offer more bullish fuel to investors as Venus forms an aspect with the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (and later Uranus, too) while Mercury follows suit Wednesday and Thursday. Monday's positive alignment has a large asterisk however, since Mercury is in a close minor alignment with Saturn and that has the power to take markets down on at least one day in the early going. Nonetheless, the balance of energy would seem to favour the bulls here as we can expect to see stocks to bounce back from any losses they might incur. This seemingly bottomless reservoir of well-meaning but ultimately deluded hope will likely also push oil and gold higher. In the wake of the positive Mercury-Jupiter aspect late week, there is increased risk of a hangover-like reaction that follows the completion of a triggering aspect by a fast moving planet (Venus, Mercury) to a larger configuration of slower moving planets such as Jupiter, Neptune and Uranus. In investment parlance, this reaction is known as profit-taking.

The planetary weather in August looks conducive to more gains on optimism over the prospects for recovery, at least at the outset. By month's end, however, the folly of our ways will be revealed.

Stocks rally on Sun-Mercury conjunction

Stocks rallied strongly last week on positive US earnings reports and favourable economic data coming out of China. In New York, the Dow gained 7% to close at 8743 and the S&P finished at 940, as markets rose back towards their June highs. In Mumbai the rally was no less impressive as the Nifty gained 8% to end the week at 4374 while the Sensex once again pushed toward the 15k level as it closed at 14,744. Although I allowed for some up days on the Sun-Mercury conjunction, my forecast was far too bearish last week. Interestingly, the Mars-Rahu aspect did indeed push the market down Monday in Asia with recovery coming in the afternoon in New York as stocks moved higher on the Sun-Mercury conjunction in late sidereal Gemini. As it turned out, both the Mercury-Uranus aspect and the Sun-Jupiter aspect later in the week overwhelmed whatever bearishness was contained within Friday's Mercury-Ketu aspect as stocks moved higher. The bullish momentum from last week is perhaps an indicator of the resilience of the market here so there is likely a little more upside to come as we move into August before the status quo is upset. Jupiter enters sidereal Capricorn on July 31 where it will remain until December. As the planet of optimism and confidence, Jupiter will be weakened by its transit into the sign of its debilitation. This is another reason for being skeptical about the staying power of any rallies in this market.

And speaking of upsetting the status quo, this week features a total solar eclipse on Wednesday (GMT) which will be visible in central India and China. The eclipse will occur at the same time Venus (24 Taurus) is in square aspect to Saturn (24 Leo). This not only can create feelings of caution and pessimism (Saturn) around money (Venus) during the early and middle part of the week when the aspect is closest, it may also foretell a significant decline in the world economy in the weeks and months to come. Eclipse effects usually take days or weeks to manifest (and many astrologers would also say months in some cases), so that is an indicator that the optimism over the economic recovery may wane in the near future. As this lengthy Jupiter-Neptune conjunction finally separates, we will likely see a major decline in stock prices, starting sometime in August and continuing into the fall. In terms of other aspect specifics, Mercury and Mars form a minor aspect on Monday and Tuesday and this is another possible source of nervousness that could cause some investors to exit the market. Some bounce is more likely toward the end of the week on Thursday and Friday as the Moon enters Leo and forms a parivartana yoga with the Sun in Cancer while Venus applies to aspect Jupiter.

Stocks rise on earnings reports

Stocks in New York rose sharply after Intel reported stronger than expected earnings. The Dow closed up 3% and closed at 8616 while the S&P ended trading at 932. The rally got started in Asia as Mumbai also bounced off last week's lows as the Nifty closed at 4233. So much for the much-ballyhooed head-and-shoulders pattern that was portending lower prices. Markets have broken above the "neckline" at Dow 8550 and are rapidly approaching their June highs.

This uptrend is largely in keeping with our weekly outlook given the Sun-Mercury conjunction and the Mercury-Jupiter aspect, although I admit it's somewhat stronger than I expected. I still see a good chance some substantial profit taking for tomorrow and especially Friday on the Mercury-Ketu conjunction, although it seems that we will finish higher on the week.

Markets continue decline as eclipse approaches

Markets fell across the board last week on fears that the much anticipated recovery may have to wait until next year . In New York, the selloff began in earnest on Tuesday's sharp loss, as stocks dropped over 2% on the week as the Dow closed at 8146 and the S&P at 879. In Mumbai, the damage was much worse, as investors were disappointed by Monday's budget that offered greater spending initiatives (and attendant high deficits) and little in the way of significant market reforms. Stocks fell 9% as the Nifty closed at 4003 and the Sensex at 13,504. This bearish outcome was largely in keeping with expectations as the selloff commenced with the exact alignment of Mars with Jupiter and Neptune within a day of the Full Moon. Thursday's Moon-Sun-Saturn alignment did broadly coincide with some modest gains as forecast, although they were not sufficient to break the negative trend for the week. The markets are now in full-blown correction mode as stocks search for a solid bottom.

With the approach of the total Solar Eclipse of July 21, we may continue to see the predominance of caution and pessimism. The key aspects this week suggest a mixed outcome with high volatility and a possible further downward bias. Monday will see the tail end of a very nasty Mars-Rahu-Pluto alignment that might be enough to push down markets in Asia, at least in the early going. Recovery seems more plausible later in the day and into Tuesday as the Sun will conjoin with a very strong Mercury in late sidereal Gemini. As the week progresses, we see Thursday's apparently positive Mercury-Uranus aspect that normally might push markets higher. But given Mercury's proximity to malefic Ketu, I am not confident that this aspect can produce gains. By Friday, Mercury will be almost fully in the clutches of Ketu (the South Lunar Node) and this is more likely to put a lot of pressure on investors (as represented by Mercury) as Ketu's penchant for otherworldliness and spiritual release could make the stock market into an unpopular place.

Stocks slip in New York on separating aspect

Stocks in New York sold off sharply Thursday and ended down by more than 2% for the week. After approaching 8600 Wednesday, the Dow closed at 8280 while the S&P ended at 896. Mumbai ended a little higher on the week, mostly on the strength of some buying late Friday in anticipation of Monday's budget announcement. The Nifty closed at 4424 while the Sensex finished the week at 14,913. I had expected more of a rise last week given the Mercury-Venus-Jupiter-Neptune alignment so this outcome was somewhat surprising. It nonetheless provides a useful clue that the strength of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction may now be fading. I had thought we might see some weakness especially given the separation of the Mercury and Venus aspect to Jupiter after midweek and Thursday's sell off in New York coincided nicely with that phenomenon. India fared somewhat better although Thursday and much of Friday was fairly flat and uninspired. Interestingly, the rally in the last two hours of trading Friday occurred just as the Moon was moving into exact square aspect with the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. Although the Moon was debilitated in Scorpio, aspects to benefics will often trump other considerations.

This week features a Full Moon on Tuesday at 21 Sagittarius which may incline markets towards caution especially earlier in the week. On Monday, Mars will be in alignment with the Jupiter-Neptune which may conceivably maintain the enthusiasm for stocks early but the separation of this aspect may bring out sellers in force later. The Full Moon occurs close to the Mars-Rahu aspect in the NSE chart so that increases the likelihood of a decline around that time. On a more positive note, there is a three-way Moon-Sun-Saturn aspect on Thursday that may also move the markets significantly. Since Saturn is in the Sun's sign of Leo, this Sun contact may possibly correspond with a rise. Transiting Venus will conjoin the ascendant of the S&P500 natal chart (11 Taurus) later in the week so that also bodes well for higher prices then.