Monday, June 16, 2008

Oil sets record hitting $139

In what appears to be a partial validation of the Venus-Pluto energy, Oil hit a new all-time high above $139 today, although it closed basically unchanged around $134. I think it's likely to make another run at $140 tomorrow as the transiting Moon will activate the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. Wednesday also looks like it has some rally potential as the Moon conjoins Pluto and can bring in the Venus once again. After Wednesday, I'm less bullish on crude.

Gold also had a strong day as forecast, although it settled back in the afternoon to close at $886. Let's see if it goes above $900 tomorrow.

In keeping with the retreating US dollar, the Euro followed commodities higher, closing well above 1.54. This bodes well for our bullish forecast for the week. If anything, the forecast rally may turn out to be too conservative.

Against expectations, stocks in New York were flat. I expect bearish sentiment to rule tomorrow, especially in the afternoon.

The BSE did well Monday. There is now a good chance it will close above 15k for the week. However, the upside remains limited.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of June 16 - 20

New York ended the week strongly but ended flat for the week as the Dow opens at 12,307 and SPX at 1360. I missed this late week rise, believing that the nastiness of the Mars-Ketu conjunction would cast a pall on whatever rosy fantasy the Venus-Neptune trine could conjure. No such luck. This week seems also biased towards the downside as the Mars-Ketu may offer some residual negativity while Venus and then the Sun oppose Pluto. Some late week rally is possible, especially after Mercury turns direct on Thursday morning (EDT), but overall, I think we will see continued retracement towards 12,000 and 1320. Monday may be the worst, however, as the Moon will square Saturn. With the Mars-Saturn conjunction in July still ahead, this may not be a good time to commit new money to the market. Friday will be an interesting battle as the Moon-Jupiter conjunction suggests a ray of optimism amidst the gathering gloom of the applying Mars-Neptune opposition. Given the proximity of the Sun-Pluto opposition that day, I would not bet on any bull run.

The BSE is coming off a down week and opens at 15,189. Thanks to the late week rally, this is higher than forecast and the Sensex remains above the psychologically important 15k level. Monday looks negative as the Moon is in square aspect to Saturn, while Mars has only just moved past Ketu in the sky. I believe it has yet to deliver its bearish karmic payload. Transiting Venus passing over the natal 12th house Mars in the Nifty Futures chart so that is another potential source of decline early in the week. While I think we're headed for a close decisively below 15k, I don't think declines here are going to be massive. There's a good chance we'll stay above 14k and may well be close to 15k until early July. After that, the lows may well be re-tested. Longer term, I am looking for some kind of substantial rally in August.

The Nikkei opens at 13,973 after a negative week. This week really does not look good for the TSE as both tr Venus and Sun will fall under the disruptive influence of the natal Ketu. While this is not in itself bearish, dispositor Mercury is going to be retrograde while tr Saturn is squaring the natal Venus very closely. 13,500 is very possible here, although if we see a nasty Monday or Tuesday, it could go much lower.

The US dollar rallied strongly last week and the Euro bore the brunt of it. It opens trading Monday at 1.5393. I missed this move completely, although in retrospect, I can see the source of my error. My much-hoped for tr Venus to the natal Moon fell under the influence of the natal Ketu so this likely threw a wrench into the works. While central banks are trying to talk up the dollar, I still believe the Euro is due for a rally, as tr Venus moves over the natal Midheaven. It is possible that the Euro sell off continues given the presence of Pluto on the IC, but I think the bias will be towards the upside. Whatever direction the Euro takes, there is a good chance that it will be large -- possibly 2 cents in one day. At the same time, tr Mars conjoins the natal Rahu in the 12th opposite Neptune. This appears to be a very bearish indicator. One possible scenario is for a Euro rally early in the week back to 1.55 or 1.56 and then another decline Thursday and Friday back to current levels. It definitely looks volatile this week although I would like to think we finish higher than 1.54.

After an early week sell off, Oil rallied towards the end of the week but could not match last week's prices. It opens at $134.86. I think Oil will attempt another rally this week, as the tr Venus conjoins the natal Rahu in the Futures chart. With Pluto anchoring the aspect through an opposition aspect, there is a chance for a spectacular rally Monday or Tuesday. But it is anything but certain. More than anything, this combination suggests a large price swing and it could be in either direction. As the week progresses, prices should stabilize. I think we're getting very near the short term high and we may hit it this week, if we haven't already. Late June and July looks worse for Oil. Right now, I think there will be a significant negative turn in sentiment around July 5.

Following on my missed call for the Euro, and the bidding up of the greenback, the dominoes fell and Gold also had a bad week. It opens at $873, stuck in its current trading range between $850 and $950. The Venus-Sun opposition to Pluto this week contains the possibility for big moves here and there is a good chance they will be on the upside. In the Gold ETF chart, 5 Sagittarius rises, so the Pluto-Venus aspect will straddle the ascendant and create the potential for strong gains early in the week. Friday may also see a rise as Venus makes a good aspect to the natal Uranus in this chart. There's a reasonable chance to get back over $900 this week but much depends on Monday's action. If it's up, then we're likely headed substantially higher.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Oil rallies above $136; Dow falls

New York equities finally took that forecast tumble as the Dow closed down about 1.7% to 12,083 and while the SPX ended the day at 1335. While I had expected declines Monday, this does set up the real possibility of further declines Thursday and Friday which may get us within striking distance of the forecast low of 1320 on the SPX. My guess is we make it and then some.

The BSE has also been struggling this week so it will be interesting to see how low it can fall. It seems certain to break through 15,000, but it may finally revisit winter lows if the selling develops a head of steam. It's very possible if the Nifty Futures chart works as advertised. The natal conjunction of Sun and Venus at 27 Taurus is currently under aspect from tr. Rahu while tr. Sun and Venus more or less exactly conjoin their natal positions. There is a lot of energy there for a significant price movement. And given that Tr Rahu is conjunct the natal Uranus opposed by tr Mars, it really does look quite precarious for long positions. This is not to say a sudden rally might also manifest from the Rahu-Sun-Venus configuration, but all things considered, I think the sentiment should be negative, especially for Friday.

I missed the early week sell off in the Euro, but today's rally has put it in better position for a late week move upwards. Friday is key here since the tr Venus conjoins the natal Moon in the 10th house. By rights, it should be a major rally. This will be a good test of the usefulness of the Euro chart (Jan 1 1999, 00.00).

After coming off Friday's highs, Oil again rallied today on reports of falling US inventories and closed up $5 to $136. I had forecast continued strength this week and today's action partially validates that prediction. The tr Sun and Venus are very close to the Ascendant in the US Oil ETF chart so that may be one possible source of the rally. Also they are applying to trine Neptune close to the MC in the futures chart, so if all goes according to plan (which it never does), we may see Oil well over $140 by the end of the week.

Gold had a good day today finally as it closed up $14 to $883. I had predicted the early week sell off from the tr Mars opposing the Gold ETF Moon, although I hadn't quite allowed for that much of a rout. I still think we have some upside to explore for the rest of the week, although my forecast high of $920 may be overly optimistic.

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Market Forecast -- June 9 - 13

Stocks in New York plunged 3% on Friday and ended the week lower as the Dow closed at 12,209 and the S&P at 1360. This confirmed last week's bearish forecast for Friday in particular and for the negative trend on the week. If anything, I underestimated the extent of the pullback as I had thought the larger declines would come the week following with Mars conjoining Ketu. These declines are still imminent, however, so we will likely see more downside here. The end of the week looks especially negative with the tr Sun-Venus squaring Uranus and the tr Mars moving in close to Ketu as it conjoins the natal Uranus in the 1792 chart. If the market manages some gains midweek, it may limit the losses to perhaps 2-3%. But that looks like a best case scenario. The Dow may re-test its March lows of 11,750 at some point, while the S&P may find itself approaching its winter support level of 1320. Monday looks quite negative, while Tuesday will probably see a significant snapback rally as the Moon trines Jupiter. Buckle up.

Tokyo has stood up rather well of late and the Nikkei is still well above 14,000. This is about to change, however, as tr Saturn will square the natal 11th house Venus in the TSE chart. Monday will be predictably terrible, but look for a larger than NY's 3% loss as the transiting Moon conjoins both the transiting Saturn and the natal Saturn of this chart. Expect the short term low to occur early next week (June 16-18) as tr Sun-Venus will pass over the equal 12th house cusp. I think it will decline below 13,000.

The Euro had a big day Friday against the US dollar and closed at 1.5778. Its gain of 2 cents on the week was broadly in line with our bullish forecast. I think the Euro will continue to move higher this week as tr Sun-Venus is aspecting the natal chart ruler Mercury. 1.60 is well within reach. Tuesday may be the best day of the week, as the Tr Moon falls under the benefic aspect of natal Jupiter. Friday may also have some significant upside as Tr Venus conjoins the natal Moon in the 10th house. That may be an indicator of a new all-time high in the Euro against the dollar.

Oil had a record-setting day on Friday as it closed up over $10 to finish at $138. I had forecast that there would be a second leg up in this rally with the Sun-Venus conjunction moving to the ascendant of the futures chart, although I had thought it would not arrive until this week. Clearly, another major speculative rally is underway. Part of the difficulty calling the top concerns the ambiguity of the futures chart itself. Its exact time of inception is unknown. If it is in fact 9.00 a.m as Friday's rally would strongly suggest given the impact of Sun and Venus passing over the ascendant, then the rally may not have that much further to go. One possible sign of a top would be the Sun and Venus falling under the exact aspect of Rahu on Tuesday and Wednesday. I don't think it will be done then, however, as Sun and Venus will trine Neptune on Friday. Neptune is considered by many astrologers to be the significator for oil. It's usually impossible calling the date and level of the exact market top but I think Friday is the most likely candidate. I have no idea what the price might be by then. $150 seems almost certain given all the talk, and it may be much higher than that. Whatever day it turns out to be, I don't think we will see much downward movement until perhaps the Mercury station on the 19th. This will be aspected by the Jupiter in the Oil futures chart, so its separation from this favourable energy may take some of the enthusiasm out of this market.

With the result of the dollar weakeness, Gold rose sharply on Friday and closed at $899. While my forecast mixed up the days for the larger price movements, I did mention $900 as a possible close and I did allude to increased volatility. It's noteworthy that the greater than normal number of aspects in the Gold futures chart equated to a big gain, even though many of the aspects involved malefics and supposedly hard aspects. I think Gold is likely headed higher this week, although there is an opposition aspect from tr Mars to the natal Moon in the ETF chart that makes me wonder if we won't see at least one negative day. $920 seems within reach. Monday looks positive as tr Moon will be aspected by the natal Jupiter. I think this short term up trend will probably continue into early next week, up until about June 18th. Actually, there seems to be a general bullish trend until perhaps the first week of July when Sun and Venus will be aspected by the natal Jupiter. I would not be surprised to see gold at $950 by then.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Oil soars on US dollar weakness

Oil is up again today -- over $6 right now, to $134.

I can't help but think this is part of the rally I forecast last week that would result from the Tr Sun and Venus approaching the Asc of the futures chart. Of course, one unknown was exactly where the ascendant of the Oil futures chart was. The 9.00 am chart has an ascendant of 22 Taurus, which is exactly where Sun and Venus are today. This massive rally yesterday and today would appear to be good confirmation of the this chart.

If we take the 9.20 chart (Asc 27 Taurus), then we could assume that this rally still has a ways to go through next week as the Sun and Venus will continue to apply to the ascendant until Jun 11-12.

If the 9.00 chart is correct, then we might see a pullback early next week. If the 9.20 chart is correct, then the pullback may occur late next week or the week after. Either way, I don't think this rally will last too much longer.

Monday, June 2, 2008

New York slips

As predicted, New York lost about 1% today as the indexes closed at 12,503/1385. This may have been in part due to the Moon-Saturn square. While there is a good chance for a rally tomorrow and into Wednesday, my conviction isn't rock solid. I think we're entering into a potentially difficult period over the next week as Mars applies to the Ketu. The natal Uranus in the 1792 chart sits at 24 Cancer so that may be one possible target for the transiting Mars.

And next week will feature the Sun-Venus (28 Taurus) in tight conjunction squaring the transiting Uranus (28 Aquarius). And remember too that the natal Mars in the 1792 chart sits at 27 Leo. That's forming a t-square which is almost never favourable. So it's hard to see the market moving much higher here and the downside risk is considerable. I think it will probably start moving lower before the end of this week, with the bigger losses occurring next week. I believe there is a genuine risk of a major decline here -- perhaps as much as 5% so we might see the SPX below 1320 at some point in the next two weeks.

The Euro didn't quite get the bounce today that I thought it would as it never really got off the ground and finished only marginally higher. It ended up at 1.5542.

I also predicted Oil would be stronger but that, too, ended up only 0.22 to $127.50. Tomorrow ought to see more on the plus side.

Gold fared somewhat better, so my bullish prediction was partially fulfilled as closed at $897 up 5.50. Let's see if it can stretch out this rally another day.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of June 2 - 6

New York is coming off a modest gain last week and starts at 12,638/1400. Monday looks bearish as Moon will fall under square aspect of Saturn. Tuesday may see a nice bounce back as Moon joins the Sun Venus in Taurus. Friday looks bearish as Moon is in Cancer with Mars and Ketu and Cancer rises at the start of the trading day. Overall, we probably won't end up too far from current levels, although there seems to be more downside risk here.

The Euro slipped under 1.56 and begins trading Monday at 1.5536. I had thought it would fare better, although I was cautious overall as I expected a pullback the following week. As it turned out, I was a few days early. Monday will bode well as Mercury gradually backs away from the negative influence of the natal Ketu. I don't foresee a huge move either way this week, although the the bias seems to be on the upside.

As predicted, Oil fell below $130 last week and begins the week at $127. I think we may see strength Monday and Tuesday as Moon, Sun and Venus are all in Taurus in close aspect to the futures natal Jupiter. There could be another rally towards $130. Any early week highs probably won't hold as the rest of the week looks middling. The week following looks stronger.

Gold had a tough week and fell back to $890. While I had been bullish last week, I did forecast a decline back to the $900 level for the following week so I jumped the gun there also. Gold looks bullish Monday and maybe into Tuesday. But I'm interested to see what the effect of the tr. Mars conjoining the natal Moon in the futures chart. Also, tr Sun and Venus will oppose the natal Mars. Those are some potentially troublesome influences, and yet I'm reluctant to forecast further declines here. If anything, it suggest activity and probably volatility. One possible scenario is a rise towards $910 early in the week and a drop back below $900 towards the end of the week.