After last week's bull run eviscerated my gloomy forecast, New York starts the week at 12,849/1390. The dominant aspect this week is the Mars-Jupiter opposition which perfects on Thursday. For extra complexity, Venus (28 Pisces) will form a western t-square on that date as it moves through the last degrees of exaltation in Pisces. And given the Uranus placement in the same degree of Aquarius, we have a fairly potent line-up of planets. I think this pattern is largely bearish, although Monday may be an up day as Venus is still within range of the S&P Moon. We may be able to approach the 13,000/1400 in the early going this week but head lower as the week wears on. Besides the troublesome Mars-Jupiter aspect, tr Mars falls under the aspect of the S&P Rahu, while tr Sun sits on the equal 12th house cusp on Thursday. These are really quite negative indications and suggest that down days greater than 1% in midweek are likely. Overall, we should finish lower this week, with a reasonable prospect that we'll end up significantly lower, back to 12,200/1325.
Bombay opens at 16,481 after an unexpected big rise last week. I think the BSE is going to be lower this week, breaking below 16k. Besides the Mars-Venus-Jupiter t-square, tr Mars squares the Sun in the BSE-100 chart. Transiting bhukti lord Mercury is very close to the equal 6th house cusp earlier in the week, so this may be a drag on prices before any substantial declines occur.
After a solid week as per our forecast, Tokyo opens at 13,476. Even with this bearish Mars-Jupiter pattern in the sky, I'm less negative about the TSE. While I think some down days are in store, especially later in the week, this may well turn out to be one of the stronger global equity markets. If we finish down for the week, it won't be by much. Next week, by contrast, looks much worse.
After flirting with $1.60 last week, the Euro opens at $1.58. I think we will see it break through $1.60 this week -- finally. Tr Mars comes under the benefic influence of the natal Jupiter while tr Venus still aspects the Virgo lagna. Wednesday or Thursday look like the best days. Overall, we should finish up significantly for the week.
Oil is really the pivotal economic story these days as it opens at another all-time high of $116. Transiting bhukti lord Venus remains in exaltation in Pisces all week, so it looks generally bullish. However, we will see a chance for a big (>1%) pullback as tr Sun opposes the natal Moon-Saturn conjunction Tuesday and Wednesday. I think this transit will only generate one major down day so we'll probably finish Friday above current levels, but $120 may only be a 50-50 proposition.
At $915, Gold comes off a decent week, even if Friday's sell off was sharp. Monday looks negative as the residual bearish of transiting dasha lord Venus under the influence of natal Saturn. Also, tr Sun opposes the natal Uranus in the futures chart. I think the upward momentum will resume after that, although Friday is a question as the tr Mars opposes the natal Venus. On balance, I think we'll finish higher for the week. However, time is running out for Gold as next week the Jupiter station will really pull the rug out from this market in May and we could see prices break down to $850 or below. While I had previously thought that we had a window of opportunity to hit $1000 briefly before the big sell off, I no longer think this is possible. Especially if Monday is negative, I don't think there will be enough juice in the tank to get us there. We will likely have to wait until autumn for a chance to revisit the all-time highs.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Market Review -- week of Apr 14-18
On positive earnings news from Google, New York rallied strongly Friday to finish the week at 12,849 on the Dow and 1390 on the S&P. This left our bearish forecast in the dust. I missed the upward move by overestimating the negative influence of Ketu on the transiting Sun and Mercury. Stocks are near some key resistance levels here, so any more upside would be seen as a very bullish breakout move. I think it's possible we may see some up days here that put us over that 13,000/1400 threshold, but the downside risk is still greater so new gains will likely not hold. Next week features the apparently bearish Mars-Jupiter opposition coming exact so we will have to watch that carefully. A longer lasting rally is more likely to begin in May after the the Sun-Saturn square has occurred and run into early June.
Bombay had a bullish week closing at 16,481. Again, optimism returned despite our analysis to the contrary. One plausible explanation of the upward movement can be seen in the BSE Nifty Futures chart where tr. Venus conjoined the equal 9th house cusp while the natal lagnesh Moon was aspected by tr Sun and Mercury. Both of these are clearly bullish signals and suggests that this chart warrants further consideration as a useful proxy for the BSE.
Tokyo followed the upward trend this week and gained about 1% to close at 13,476. This confirmed our bullish forecast based on the TSE 1949 chart as tr Venus approached the unequal 10th house cusp.
Euro closed Friday at $1.581, down over a cent after touching $1.595 briefly midweek. This also confirmed our negative forecast for the week, although only barely. Our Thursday revised forecast was borne out by Friday's sell off as the transiting Sun finally combined with the natal 8th house Saturn, albeit a couple of degrees after the fact. There are still a preponderance of bullish factors at work in this chart that should tend to push it higher in the coming weeks, although after May 9th, that climb may be weakened, perhaps mortally.
Oil became a haven for speculators as it powered to new all-time highs, closing at $116.83 on Friday. Our bearish prediction was defied by the strength of transiting bhukti lord Venus exalted in Pisces and transiting the 11th house of gains in the futures chart. My expectation was that the influence of the tr Sun and Mercury over the natal 12th house Mars would take prices down. The fact that this Mars sits in the unequal 11th house suggests that whole sign house placements may demand alternative interpretations from time to time. While Venus' movement into Aries after the 25th may bring a slowing of recent gains, I think we'll have to wait for May and Mars' ingress into Cancer to bring prices down.
Gold closed down $27 to $915. After a surprisingly strong week, at least our revised Wednesday forecast indicated the possibility of a Friday decline with tr Venus coming within range of the aspect from natal Saturn in the futures chart. The medium term factors are still in place for a rally in the next couple of weeks, although I note that the Mars-Jupiter opposition next week will activate the natal Venus in the futures chart. This is likely bullish given Mars' rulership over the 11th house, but it is not certain.
Bombay had a bullish week closing at 16,481. Again, optimism returned despite our analysis to the contrary. One plausible explanation of the upward movement can be seen in the BSE Nifty Futures chart where tr. Venus conjoined the equal 9th house cusp while the natal lagnesh Moon was aspected by tr Sun and Mercury. Both of these are clearly bullish signals and suggests that this chart warrants further consideration as a useful proxy for the BSE.
Tokyo followed the upward trend this week and gained about 1% to close at 13,476. This confirmed our bullish forecast based on the TSE 1949 chart as tr Venus approached the unequal 10th house cusp.
Euro closed Friday at $1.581, down over a cent after touching $1.595 briefly midweek. This also confirmed our negative forecast for the week, although only barely. Our Thursday revised forecast was borne out by Friday's sell off as the transiting Sun finally combined with the natal 8th house Saturn, albeit a couple of degrees after the fact. There are still a preponderance of bullish factors at work in this chart that should tend to push it higher in the coming weeks, although after May 9th, that climb may be weakened, perhaps mortally.
Oil became a haven for speculators as it powered to new all-time highs, closing at $116.83 on Friday. Our bearish prediction was defied by the strength of transiting bhukti lord Venus exalted in Pisces and transiting the 11th house of gains in the futures chart. My expectation was that the influence of the tr Sun and Mercury over the natal 12th house Mars would take prices down. The fact that this Mars sits in the unequal 11th house suggests that whole sign house placements may demand alternative interpretations from time to time. While Venus' movement into Aries after the 25th may bring a slowing of recent gains, I think we'll have to wait for May and Mars' ingress into Cancer to bring prices down.
Gold closed down $27 to $915. After a surprisingly strong week, at least our revised Wednesday forecast indicated the possibility of a Friday decline with tr Venus coming within range of the aspect from natal Saturn in the futures chart. The medium term factors are still in place for a rally in the next couple of weeks, although I note that the Mars-Jupiter opposition next week will activate the natal Venus in the futures chart. This is likely bullish given Mars' rulership over the 11th house, but it is not certain.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Markets rise on earnings optimism
New York was up 2% today on the basis of good earnings from Intel, as some investors began to believe that the worst was over. While I called for a decline this week, I still think we can look for a significant decline over the next 4 or 5 trading days. My original downside target of 11,750/1270 probably won't be met here, but look for a 2% down day, most likely early next week.
Closing yesterday at 16,244, Bombay continues to be strong this week. Tr Venus conjoins natal 1875 Rahu tomorrow so that should account for the up day that is in store but beware of gains made with Rahu -- they often don't last. There are still some potentially negative influences such as the Mars conjoining the natal Sun but given the market behaviour so far, it may be that Mars rules good houses in the natal chart, i.e. its conjunction coincides with gains and not losses.
Tokyo is above 13,000 and will likely climb higher as forecast. Tr Venus is approaching the MC as Sun-Mercury activate the powerful 10th house Rahu in the natal chart.
The Euro is a record high of 1.595 today laying waste to my expectation for a pullback as Sun-Mercury conjoined the natal Saturn. Certainly, the Euro is due to continue rising over the next few weeks, but it is overdue for a brief correction here. The fact that tr Mars is squaring the natal Mars only reinforces my belief that it is headed sharply lower day (>1%) at some point this week.
While oil did retreat to $112 in morning trading, it rose past $114 in the afternoon. Our longer term forecast has it going higher over the next few weeks ($120 is likely), so it seems that short term negative transits are manifesting as very temporary pullbacks that do not last through to the close. A few dates to watch out for as possible tops then are: 1) Apr 25 when tr Venus enters Aries which is the 12th house in the Oil futures chart; 2) April 28th when tr Mars enters Cancer and thereby afflicts the Moon-Saturn conjunction in the futures chart; 3) May 4th when tr Rahu begins to separate from tr Neptune, which may have had a bullish influence on the price of crude and; 4) May 9th when Jupiter turns retrograde and begins to move away from the equal 8th house cusp in the futures chart. All these factors may each contribute to the easing of the price once we get into May.
Gold rose again today closing at $948. It is also on track with our medium term forecast to continue rising until the Jupiter station in May. The next chance for a price decline might be Friday, and then again early next week. A pressing question now might be whether or not gold can climb back over $1000 on this current Jupiter rally. Given its ability to shake off some apparently negative transits, I'd say it's very doable. It will have about two weeks to do it.
Closing yesterday at 16,244, Bombay continues to be strong this week. Tr Venus conjoins natal 1875 Rahu tomorrow so that should account for the up day that is in store but beware of gains made with Rahu -- they often don't last. There are still some potentially negative influences such as the Mars conjoining the natal Sun but given the market behaviour so far, it may be that Mars rules good houses in the natal chart, i.e. its conjunction coincides with gains and not losses.
Tokyo is above 13,000 and will likely climb higher as forecast. Tr Venus is approaching the MC as Sun-Mercury activate the powerful 10th house Rahu in the natal chart.
The Euro is a record high of 1.595 today laying waste to my expectation for a pullback as Sun-Mercury conjoined the natal Saturn. Certainly, the Euro is due to continue rising over the next few weeks, but it is overdue for a brief correction here. The fact that tr Mars is squaring the natal Mars only reinforces my belief that it is headed sharply lower day (>1%) at some point this week.
While oil did retreat to $112 in morning trading, it rose past $114 in the afternoon. Our longer term forecast has it going higher over the next few weeks ($120 is likely), so it seems that short term negative transits are manifesting as very temporary pullbacks that do not last through to the close. A few dates to watch out for as possible tops then are: 1) Apr 25 when tr Venus enters Aries which is the 12th house in the Oil futures chart; 2) April 28th when tr Mars enters Cancer and thereby afflicts the Moon-Saturn conjunction in the futures chart; 3) May 4th when tr Rahu begins to separate from tr Neptune, which may have had a bullish influence on the price of crude and; 4) May 9th when Jupiter turns retrograde and begins to move away from the equal 8th house cusp in the futures chart. All these factors may each contribute to the easing of the price once we get into May.
Gold rose again today closing at $948. It is also on track with our medium term forecast to continue rising until the Jupiter station in May. The next chance for a price decline might be Friday, and then again early next week. A pressing question now might be whether or not gold can climb back over $1000 on this current Jupiter rally. Given its ability to shake off some apparently negative transits, I'd say it's very doable. It will have about two weeks to do it.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Commodities continue advance
Oil and Gold show no signs of backing off their recent gains. Oil has hit another all-time high today at $113. This is contrary to my expectations as I thought the Sun-Mercury transit would produce more of a pullback this week. This may still happen since the Sun-Mercury falls under the aspect of natal Ketu tomorrow and Thursday. However, whatever declines occur will be at levels much higher than forecast, perhaps back to $110-112. So while there will be some days of profit taking, it's clear to me that the bullish mood leading up to the coming Jupiter station on May 9 continues to rule these markets. The next decline in crude is most likely early next week as the tr. Sun opposes the natal Saturn in the futures chart. This will drop prices by 2% or more. This opposition is generally a more difficult aspect than the Sun-Mercury conjunct natal Mars.
As a caveat on my bearish Gold forecast, I had wondered if the tr Mars to natal Saturn conjunction might be too far past exact to move the market down Monday. In light of the modest gains we've seen so far this week, that is likely what has happened as the tr Jupiter approaching the natal Venus overwhelmed everything else. I still think we will see significant declines (>2%) over the rest of week, however, as tr Venus falls under the 10th house aspect of the natal Saturn. We should finish below $920 by Friday. I think gold will generally move higher over the next two weeks until Jupiter changes direction but there will be days of significant declines as well.
As a caveat on my bearish Gold forecast, I had wondered if the tr Mars to natal Saturn conjunction might be too far past exact to move the market down Monday. In light of the modest gains we've seen so far this week, that is likely what has happened as the tr Jupiter approaching the natal Venus overwhelmed everything else. I still think we will see significant declines (>2%) over the rest of week, however, as tr Venus falls under the 10th house aspect of the natal Saturn. We should finish below $920 by Friday. I think gold will generally move higher over the next two weeks until Jupiter changes direction but there will be days of significant declines as well.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of Apr 14 -18
As predicted, the NYSE finished down last week amid new fears that corporate earnings may be vulnerable to fallout from the sub-prime crisis. The Dow opens at 12,325 and the S&P at 1332. I think we will see the markets move lower again this week, with Monday and Tuesday looking the most bearish. Transiting Sun and Mercury will move into Aries early in the week and will fall under the aspect of unpredictable Ketu. I consider this a negative influence owing to Ketu's conjunction with Saturn. The transiting Moon will come to the Saturn-Ketu conjunction Tuesday, so that might be the more negative day. As an additional burden, by their ingress into Aries, Sun and Mercury are moving into the 12th house of the the S&P chart. At this point, Friday appears to be the best day, as tr. Venus applies to the natal S&P Moon, although it will still be a couple degrees short. If Monday does in fact produce a lower close, then we could be looking at a significant decline for Tuesday, on the order of 2% or more. I think we will see 1300/12,000 at some point this week, with a slight possibility of.intraday re-testing of the 11,700/1270 support levels. On balance, I think that next week would be a better candidate for the re-testing of those support levels, however.
Bombay is closed Monday, but trading on Tuesday should be mostly negative. I had thought the decline would being late last week as the transiting Mars came to the natal 1875 Mercury, but traders had other ideas as the Sensex closed at 15,807. Tr. Mars now applies to the natal Sun so the negative energy is now, if anything, more concentrated. Some relief rally is possible for Thursday, however, as optimism, no matter how baseless, may return with the approach of transiting Venus to the natal 1875 Rahu. With the shortened three-day trading week, I think we will finish lower, perhaps moving below 15,000 at least for one day's close.
Tokyo is coming off a decent week and will open at 13,323. Transiting Sun and Mercury will conjoin the natal Rahu in the TSE chart, making for a lot of volatility. We can expect a down day Monday following on the the heels of US markets. Transiting Moon will come under negative pressure from the aspect of the natal TSE Mars. However, transiting Venus will move toward the TSE unequal 10th house cusp (MC) later in the week. This is one reason why I can see the Nikkei closing over 13k for the week and indeed moving higher from current levels.
I was overly bearish on the Euro last week, but I'm fairly certain it will sell off this week as tr. Sun and Mercury conjoin the natal Saturn. I see that it has sold off almost a cent already in early trading so that forecast is bearing fruit. We may see $1.55 or lower in the early part of the week, but look for some recovery by Friday, perhaps back to $1.56 or 1.57. Overall, though we should be lower from its present level of $1.582.
Oil is similarly going to suffer a big pullback early on in the week as tr Sun and Mercury conjoin the natal Mars in the futures chart. Given its recent volatility, a big move of at least 5% to the downside is very likely over Monday and Tuesday. We may see the Oil price go below $105, perhaps decisively so. There will some rally later on, but I think we'll finish Friday below current levels of $110.
Gold will also fall this week as tr Mars conjoins the natal Saturn in the futures chart. $900 is very possible at some point this week and I think we'll close Friday lower than where we started.
Bombay is closed Monday, but trading on Tuesday should be mostly negative. I had thought the decline would being late last week as the transiting Mars came to the natal 1875 Mercury, but traders had other ideas as the Sensex closed at 15,807. Tr. Mars now applies to the natal Sun so the negative energy is now, if anything, more concentrated. Some relief rally is possible for Thursday, however, as optimism, no matter how baseless, may return with the approach of transiting Venus to the natal 1875 Rahu. With the shortened three-day trading week, I think we will finish lower, perhaps moving below 15,000 at least for one day's close.
Tokyo is coming off a decent week and will open at 13,323. Transiting Sun and Mercury will conjoin the natal Rahu in the TSE chart, making for a lot of volatility. We can expect a down day Monday following on the the heels of US markets. Transiting Moon will come under negative pressure from the aspect of the natal TSE Mars. However, transiting Venus will move toward the TSE unequal 10th house cusp (MC) later in the week. This is one reason why I can see the Nikkei closing over 13k for the week and indeed moving higher from current levels.
I was overly bearish on the Euro last week, but I'm fairly certain it will sell off this week as tr. Sun and Mercury conjoin the natal Saturn. I see that it has sold off almost a cent already in early trading so that forecast is bearing fruit. We may see $1.55 or lower in the early part of the week, but look for some recovery by Friday, perhaps back to $1.56 or 1.57. Overall, though we should be lower from its present level of $1.582.
Oil is similarly going to suffer a big pullback early on in the week as tr Sun and Mercury conjoin the natal Mars in the futures chart. Given its recent volatility, a big move of at least 5% to the downside is very likely over Monday and Tuesday. We may see the Oil price go below $105, perhaps decisively so. There will some rally later on, but I think we'll finish Friday below current levels of $110.
Gold will also fall this week as tr Mars conjoins the natal Saturn in the futures chart. $900 is very possible at some point this week and I think we'll close Friday lower than where we started.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Market Review -- week of Apr 7 - 11
New York tanked 2% on GE's disappointing earnings report Friday, as the averages closed at 12,325 and 1332. This was a nice confirmation of last week's forecast for a finish under 12,400/1340. Presumably, this was a delayed reaction to the Sun-Jupiter and Mercury-Mars squares that perfected Thursday. Given that General Electric is a bellwether for the market and the economy, these bad earnings are the necessary fuel to take us much lower next week as we have been predicting. With one or two more companies underwhelming with earnings, there is a very real chance (50-50) that we could see a re-test of the March lows (11,700/1270). We're entering a more solidly bearish time over the coming weeks where even larger declines are possible. At the moment, I think a short term bottom might occur in the first or second week of May. I'll post more of my thoughts on this Sunday.
The BSE continues to defy gravity as it finished the week up on Friday, at a healthy 15,807. Given the NY decline, a Monday drop is certain which will fulfill our now belated forecast.
Tokyo also closed Friday up 378, to finish at 13,323. Like Bombay, this was higher than our forecast. I think Asian markets will be playing catch up on the downside with American markets next week, although Japan will likely be a better performer.
The Euro closed Friday above $1.58. Our forecast had it declining this week, so we were premature. The planetary alignments for next week are decidedly negative in the Euro chart. $1.55 or below is very possible. Aside from some short term moves down, I think we'll likely see more strength in the Euro until Jupiter turns retrograde on May 9.
Oil finished up at $110, which was above our expected range of $105 -108, but not entirely unexpected. We will see some correction next week.
Gold closed down Friday to close at $927. The unexpected upside here clearly shows the underlying strength of the bull market in gold. Declines are likely next week, maybe to $900 or below, but the Jupiter station in May does look more and more like a medium term turning point.
The BSE continues to defy gravity as it finished the week up on Friday, at a healthy 15,807. Given the NY decline, a Monday drop is certain which will fulfill our now belated forecast.
Tokyo also closed Friday up 378, to finish at 13,323. Like Bombay, this was higher than our forecast. I think Asian markets will be playing catch up on the downside with American markets next week, although Japan will likely be a better performer.
The Euro closed Friday above $1.58. Our forecast had it declining this week, so we were premature. The planetary alignments for next week are decidedly negative in the Euro chart. $1.55 or below is very possible. Aside from some short term moves down, I think we'll likely see more strength in the Euro until Jupiter turns retrograde on May 9.
Oil finished up at $110, which was above our expected range of $105 -108, but not entirely unexpected. We will see some correction next week.
Gold closed down Friday to close at $927. The unexpected upside here clearly shows the underlying strength of the bull market in gold. Declines are likely next week, maybe to $900 or below, but the Jupiter station in May does look more and more like a medium term turning point.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Gold revived
While I missed this week's price rise in Gold, I think I understand it a bit better now. It appears that we're more likely to see price increases as long as tr Jupiter (27 Sg) is closing in on the natal Venus (29 Sg) of the futures chart. In my forecast last year, I originally believed that a price peak would be likely near the Jupiter station in May, but recent declines had shaken my confidence in that forecast. It seems that the declines occurred while tr Jupiter was moving in between natal Mercury (22 Sg) and natal Venus (29 Sg) and where it had less strength to boost prices.
There will be further price dips, such as Friday and possibly Monday as the Mars contacts the natal Saturn. But as long as the Jupiter is applying to the Venus, I think we will tend to see increases, possibly over $1000. I'll refine this upward limit in the days ahead, depending on what kind of pullback we see through the weekend. The short term top should occur near the Jupiter station May 9. Once Jupiter turns away from Venus, prices should weaken.
Interestingly, the bearish conjunction of tr Mars to the natal Saturn actually perfects over the weekend so that might also reduce the downside somewhat so the price may bottom out well above $900. Next week we should see the gains return.
There will be further price dips, such as Friday and possibly Monday as the Mars contacts the natal Saturn. But as long as the Jupiter is applying to the Venus, I think we will tend to see increases, possibly over $1000. I'll refine this upward limit in the days ahead, depending on what kind of pullback we see through the weekend. The short term top should occur near the Jupiter station May 9. Once Jupiter turns away from Venus, prices should weaken.
Interestingly, the bearish conjunction of tr Mars to the natal Saturn actually perfects over the weekend so that might also reduce the downside somewhat so the price may bottom out well above $900. Next week we should see the gains return.
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