Market slumps after Fed minutes

 

(22 February 2023) US stocks moved lower for a fourth straight day after the Fed minutes reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to higher rates for the rest of the year.  Investors have become more cautious in recent weeks as stubbornly high inflation may force the Fed to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy.  Higher rates are generally bad news for stocks since they make borrowing more expensive which reduces spending and puts pressure on the corporate bottom line.

Thus far, this week's pullback has coincided with a bearish alignment of Mercury, Mars and Uranus.   While none of these planets formed full-strength Vedic aspects with each other, they nonetheless were in a close alignment for yesterday's big sell-off as all three planets occupied the 21st or 22nd sidereal degree of their respective signs: Mercury (21 Capricorn), Mars (22 Taurus) and Uranus (21 Aries).   As a rule, alignments involving Mars tend to have more downside risk, and Mercury-Mars alignments are somewhat more vulnerable to declines.  In this case, the Uranus factor may have added some amplification to the volatile Mercury-Mars energy.

 

 

While both Mercury and Mars moved past their alignment with Uranus today, they nonetheless formed an exact 120-degree aspect this afternoon.  This was perhaps a lingering bearish influence in today's trading session, which, although negative, was much less negative than Tuesday.   And while the 120-degree angle is not considered a proper Vedic aspect, it is worth noting that Mercury and Mars were conjunct (with Rahu) in the key 9th harmonic/divisional or navamsa chart.  Although less important than the rasi chart, the navamsa chart can often provide additional information of the relevant planetary energies.

 

With faster-moving Mercury now separating from its alignment with Mars, the late week should be less bearish.  In addition, we can see that the approach of the Sun-Venus-Rahu alignment could be more bullish for Thursday and Friday.  The inclusion of Rahu in this pattern is a matter of some debate perhaps given its natural malefic quality.  However, it tends to be changeable more than anything else and is usually less bearish than Mars.  In many cases, it can actually be quite bullish.  Also, its energy tends to work better with Venus, at least for material matters such as the stock market.   Bulls could also get a boost from the Moon's conjunction with Jupiter and Chiron.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Gold extends losses on higher than expected US inflation

(15 February 2023)  Gold has extended its decline this week after Tuesday’s CPI print came in higher than expected.  While still lower than the previous month, the stubbornly high 6.4% annual rate of inflation rate has reminded investors that the Fed will likely to have to keep rates ‘higher for longer’.  Higher interest rates are generally anathema to gold since elevated yields tend to be more attractive to investors who receive no such compensation for holding bullion.  Gold finished Wednesday’s session at $1845, well below its February 2 high of $1975.

The pullback in gold is not unexpected once we take into account the relevant planetary alignments.  First, we should note that this week’s Sun-Saturn conjunction at 3 Aquarius is typically bearish as Saturn’s constraining nature tends to block the Sun’s promise of traditional wealth and prosperity.  Since the Sun is one of the key planetary significators for gold, it is not surprising that this affliction by Saturn should coincide with a significant decline in the price of bullion.

If we look at the 1919 horoscope for gold, we can also see another culprit for the current consolidation.  Ketu (South Lunar Node) is exactly transiting over the Ascendant at 12 degrees of sidereal Libra.  In financial astrology, Ketu-Ascendant configurations tend to be bearish since Ketu is associated with anti-materialistic and spiritual qualities which are inimical to the world of mundane economic gains.  And the square alignment of Mercury (11 Capricorn) to the Ascendant-Ketu conjunction likely added to the negative price action for gold this week.

 

Moreover, the gold chart suffers further affliction since transiting Rahu (12 Aries) exactly aspects the Mercury-Saturn conjunction in the natal chart at 11-12 degrees of sidereal Leo.  While Rahu is usually less malefic than Ketu in financial matters, its influence here on Mercury and Saturn is unhelpful since it combines poorly with both of these planets.  By contrast, Rahu-Venus or Rahu-Jupiter aspects can often be bullish.

While the slow-moving Ketu and Rahu afflictions could well depress gold prices for a while longer, it is quite possible we could see gold enjoy a  bounce in coming days as the Sun begins to move out of range of its conjunction with Saturn.  For the record, the exact Sun-Saturn conjunction occurs tomorrow, February 16, at 11.48 a.m. EST.  This conjunction may be seen as a moment of theoretical maximum bearishness for gold in the short term.  Of course, other concurrent influences from the likes of Ketu and Rahu will adhere to their own timetable.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

 

Fed's hawkish talk sinks stocks

(8 February 2023) The Fed giveth, and the Fed taketh away.  After rallying on Fed Chair Powell’s speech yesterday, stocks fell back down to earth today as comments from other Fed governors took a more hawkish tone.  Indexes fell by more than 1% on Wednesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned of a “long fight” against inflation that might require rates being higher for longer than many investors expect.

All these Fed speakers are creating a considerable amount of confusion as market participants try to anticipate when the Fed may finally end its tightening cycle and begin to cut interest rates.  While inflation may well have peaked last summer, the most recent jobs report was stronger than expected and showed no signs of slack in the labor market in light of record low unemployment.  As long as the labor market is robust, wages will keep trending higher and continue to put upward pressure on consumer prices.

As I noted in last week’s update, the near term planetary situation looks uncertain at best.  The horoscope of the Federal Reserve is coming under increased pressure as transiting Mars approaches its conjunction with natal Saturn (20 Taurus) over the next week or so.   This Mars affliction may manifest as greater criticism of the way the Fed communicates its policies as well as greater scrutiny of the policies themselves.

The confusion surrounding the Fed’s approach may also damage investor sentiment and produce more skittishness in the markets.  Based on this week’s transits, Saturn is assuming a greater prominence in the coming days.   In fact, Wednesday’s decline coincided closely with the 30-degree alignment of Mercury (2 Capricorn) with Saturn (2 Aquarius).  And yet, this two-factor pattern is probably not the whole reason for today’s selling.

If we look under the surface, we can see that Saturn is involved with larger configurations involving slower moving and more powerful planets.  The transit chart cast for Friday, February 10 illustrates this more clearly.  Thus, the angular separation of Saturn and Pluto (=28°03) almost exactly matches that of Mars and Uranus (=27°39).  When the angular separations of two pairs of planets are equal, their energies tend to resonate more strongly.  Since there are two natural malefics planets here — Mars and Saturn — the effect of this configuration is more likely to be bearish on the markets.

A few additional points can be made.  First, the conjunction of Mercury with Pluto at 4 Capricorn should serve to amplify the bearish effect of this pattern, although it could also manifest a day before or after given a standard margin of error.  We should also note that the Mars-Uranus/Saturn-Pluto alignment won’t be exact until the weekend.  While it’s close enough to increase the bearish influence later this week, it’s also possible its effects could be delayed or manifest more fully outside regular trading hours.  Also, we can see a possible offsetting bullish influence on Friday (late) as the angular separation of Venus-Neptune almost matches that of Jupiter-Chiron around 5 degrees.  However, since this four-planet alignment only becomes exact on Saturday, it is uncertain if its bullish influence will be felt during Friday’s US trading hours.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo Credit: M.V. Jantzen

Fed hikes rates as market anticipate dovish turn

(1 February 2023) Fed Chair Jerome Powell must be feeling pretty good today after delivering on the widely expected 25 basis point rate hike.   Markets rallied strongly after the Fed decision in hopes that the Fed may only raise rates one more time this year before reversing course in the second half.   Investor optimism is rooted in the belief that the Fed may now be able to engineer a ‘soft landing’ for the economy, as inflation is tamed without inducing a recession.

But is the prospect of a more dovish Fed enough to lift stocks out of their bear market?  Readers may recall a previous post where I discussed the Fed horoscope in context of the stock market.   I suggested that an interim low for US stocks might coincide with a very difficult Saturn transit (24 Capricorn) to the 8th house cusp of the Fed’s chart in October 2022.  Once Saturn stationed direct on Oct 23 and began to move away from this sensitive point, market sentiment improved.   As a general rule, I have found that when the Fed’s horoscope comes under transit afflictions by malefic planets, financial markets become more vulnerable to declines.  While the correlation isn’t perfect, the connection between between the condition of the Fed’s chart and the stock market is always worth considering.

Another piece of the puzzle is the current dasha sequence in the Fed horoscope.  The Federal Reserve is currently running its Rahu-Mercury dasha period, which began in July 2021 and will last until Feb 2024.  The Rahu major period (2013-2031) promises unexpected or unprecedented actions which could have a disruptive effect on the wider society.  Rahu’s placement in the 9th house suggests an increasingly tense relationship with authority (i.e. the US government) over the course of its dasha period.  We can also predict that the Fed’s Rahu period is more likely to be unproductive and turbulent because Rahu is afflicted by a square aspect from Saturn in the natal chart.   While there has been long-standing debate about the true extent of the Fed’s independence from government, this Rahu influence suggests this independence could be tested even more severely than it has in the past (e.g. Arthur Burns under Nixon and Jerome Powell under Trump).

The Mercury minor period (2021-2024) could be a fairly difficult one, both for the Fed and for financial markets.  While Mercury (21 Scorpio) is a more benefic planet by nature, it is somewhat afflicted in the natal chart as it is almost exactly opposite Saturn (20 Taurus).  Mercury’s close conjunction with Venus mitigates some of the damage from Saturn, but I suspect it may not completely negate it.  Therefore, I would think the Rahu-Mercury period will see the Fed forced by circumstances to act swiftly to steady the economy while stocks are more likely to underperform.  To a large extent, this promise has already been fulfilled during the bear market in 2022.   However, the ongoing bearish influence of Rahu-Mercury throughout 2023 and into early 2024 is likely to further weigh on markets.

Looking at the current transits we can see that some of that recent optimism may be tested soon as transiting Mars will conjoin Saturn and oppose Mercury over the next few weeks.  With Jupiter fairly strong in Pisces in the 10th house with Chiron, however, it’s possible that markets may not fare too badly over that time.  Also, the lack of any clear transit affliction from Saturn (1 Aquarius) in February reduces the probability of a huge market sell-off.  While Mars is bearish, it is usually not as bearish as Saturn.

Of course, in terms of the overall market picture, the Fed horoscope is only one factor out of many.  Even if there are no strong Saturn influences in the Fed chart in February, Saturn is likely to manifest its effects elsewhere through several midpoint alignments.  As a result, sentiment may become more fragile in the coming weeks.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.