Biden's 2024 plans in doubt after classified documents scandal

(25 January 2023) Will US President Joe Biden run again in 2024?  Up until recently, it was widely assumed that the 80-year old commander-in-chief would seek a second term in next year’s election.  Despite weak approval numbers borne of overbearing governance and ongoing economic hardship, Biden was generally expected to be the Democrat nominee for president in 2024.

But the controversy following the discovery of several batches of classified documents in his private residence in Delaware has raised questions about his electability.  Even if this documents case may be seen as a minor case of bad judgment, what seems different this time around is that the mainstream media appear to be more critical of Biden’s actions. After enjoying a fairly easy ride from the left-leaning MSM in the past two years, the closer scrutiny on this issue raises the possibility that Biden may no longer be a lock on the nomination.  The classified documents scandal may well be a trial balloon in which the Democrats seek alternatives to Biden for the 2024 election.

Unfortunately for Biden, his horoscope will come under renewed pressure from Saturn in the coming months.  Readers will remember that for much of 2021 and 2022, Biden’s natal Mercury and Mars suffered under the full-strength square aspect from Saturn.  While the US succeeded in putting the pandemic behind it early in his administration, the ongoing Saturn affliction in Biden’s chart reflected the intractable political divisions in the country and the growing economic difficulties from surging inflation.

Now, Saturn (1 Aquarius) is forming yet another extended square aspect to no less than three key points in his chart — the Sun, Venus and the Ascendant.  The square aspect from Saturn will first exactly hit the Sun (4 Scorpio) on February 23, then hit Venus (5 Scorpio) on March 4, and then finally hit the Ascendant (10 Scorpio) on April 16 or so, assuming his time of birth is correct.  While these exact square aspects all lie in the near future, we should view Biden’s current problems in light of Saturn’s affliction since it is already well within effective range to these planets.  And the really bad news for Biden is that Saturn is due to station retrograde in June and will thus come back and almost exactly square those planets in the fall all over again.  In fact, those three points will not be free of the Saturn affliction until early 2024.

To make matters even worse, Biden started his Saturn major dasha period in September 2022.  As a rule, Saturn dasha periods tend to be more difficult than the preceding Jupiter dasha periods (2006-2022) and that is likely the case for Biden as he was both Vice-President and President while running the Jupiter major dasha period.  The likelihood of troubles and disappointment is even more likely for Biden since his Saturn (16 Taurus) is closely afflicted by the 8th house aspect of Mars (19 Scorpio) in his natal chart.  The wide oppositions from the Sun and Venus are somewhat helpful but do not negate the affliction from Mars, nor do they offset the natural malefic qualities of Saturn.   Interestingly, this document scandal emerged just as Mars (15 Taurus) stationed direct while conjunct his natal Saturn.

In terms of his re-election bid, we should pay special attention to the condition of the Sun, his 10th house ruler of status and career.  When that is afflicted by Saturn, Biden is more likely to suffer setbacks related to his status.  One possible date to keep in mind in that respect is the upcoming Sun-Saturn conjunction by transit at 3 Scorpio on February 16.  With Saturn just one degree from its exact square to the natal Sun, we could see increasingly pressure on Biden’s leadership.  It is even possible he could announce that may not seek the nomination for 2024, although that announcement could also occur later in the year as the Ascendant comes under the increasing affliction of Saturn.  April also looks especially vulnerable in this respect as Mars transits his equal 8th house cusp (obstacles, scandals) while Rahu conjoins his 6th house Moon symbolizing competitors. Even if Biden doesn’t pull out of the 2024 race at this time, other Democrats could declare their intention to contest the nomination.

Overall, 2023 is shaping up to be a very difficult year for President Biden.  With the heavy Saturn influence, it seems very possible that he will not seek a second term.

 

Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have been choppy in recent days as investors await the Fed decision on February 1.  For their part, a fresh spate of corporate earnings have been fairly mixed so far with companies often meeting or beating consensus estimates but warning on guidance.  As expected, we saw some upside to start the week as the Sun aligned with bullish Jupiter.

While further gains cannot be ruled out in the coming days, the approach of the Saturn-Neptune-Pluto alignment in February suggests rallies may become more vulnerable to reversal.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

US stocks fall as retail sales disappoint

(18 January 2023) US stocks fell sharply today on growing recession fears as the latest retail sales report showed a 1.1% decline in December.  Bond yields also tumbled today as PPI wholesale inflation for December came in below expectations at 6.2%.  Yields are now well their December lows with the 2-year at 4.06% and the benchmark 10-year at 3.37%.  Bond yields have been falling in recent months as more investors become convinced that the worst of inflation is behind us and that economic growth may be slowing.

So far, this week’s decline coincides with the bearish Mars-Mercury alignment that I noted in last week’s post.  Mars aspects to Mercury are usually bearish for the stock market since Mercury is the planet of commerce and trading.  As a malefic planet, Mars has the potential to upset or interrupt the significations of whatever planet it aspects.  The probability of a decline was even more likely this week since both Mars and Mercury were moving very slowly:  Mars stationed direct last Thursday and was still moving at just 15% of its normal speed today while Mercury stationed direct this morning (Jan 18) and thus was moving at less than 5% of its normal speed by the close today.  As a general rule, slower planets are stronger planets, especially when in close alignment.  And whenever planetary aspects include a malefic like Mars or Saturn, a negative outcome in the financial markets is much more likely.

But now that both Mars and Mercury have completed their retrograde cycles and are once again moving forward, could the markets be in a better position to rise?  Yes and no.  The forward motion of Mars and Mercury is a more bullish influence on sentiment, all other things being equal.  But this 210-degree Mars-Mercury aspect will remain in close proximity for several more days.  Therefore, Mercury will remain afflicted by the negative energy of Mars for the rest of this week at least.

Moreover, we can see that the angular separation of Mars and Rahu (28°20) will approximately equal that of Saturn and Neptune (28°56) for the next few days.  This is an ongoing bearish influence since all four planets have bearish potentials, especially Mars, Saturn and Rahu.  This four-planet alignment will remain within close range for longer than usual since Mars is only moving a few arc minutes per day.   Certainly, the presence of this bearish energy makes a major rebound much less likely in the near term and indeed makes further downside more likely.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo credit: Mike Mozart

Stocks rise in anticipation of cooler CPI report

(11 January 2023) While rising consumer prices remain a major concern for most of us, recent data suggests that inflation in the US and elsewhere may be easing. After hitting a high of 9% in the summer, inflation has trended lower ever since, with November's report showing a 7.1% increase.  Tomorrow's CPI report for December is also expected to extend the downtrend as consensus estimates are now 6.5% for this report.  Stocks have been rising this week in anticipation a lower print, possibly to a level well below expectations.

As it happens, tomorrow's report will closely coincide with the direct station of Mars, as the red planet completes its retrograde cycle that began on October 30.  Normally, direct planetary stations are bullish influences, although this favourability may be somewhat diminished since Mars is a natural malefic planet.  And we should also note that stocks have been bullish this week as bullish Jupiter (8 Pisces) has transited over the midpoint of Neptune (29 Aquarius) and Chiron (18 Pisces).  Other transits by faster-moving planets such as the Sun have highlighted this auspicious Jupiter influence as stocks have been in rebound mode since their Christmas low.

While I am uncertain exactly how tomorrow will unfold, I do think there is rising downside risk in the period following this Mars direct station.  The main problem is that Mercury (16 Sagittarius), the planet of trading and commerce, will be closely aspected by Mars (14 Taurus) over the next several days.  This is a full-strength, 8th house/210 degree aspect of Mars that is is likely to produce difficult outcomes related to Mercury's portfolio.  Since Mercury symbolizes everything from computers, transportation and commerce, we should be on the alert for setbacks and frustrations in these areas.  Today's massive airline computer outage in the US may be an early manifestation of this negative Mars-Mercury energy.  Rahu's 120-degree aspect to Mercury no doubt also played a part in today's airline chaos.

Of special note is that this aspect will last much longer than usual due to both planets relatively slow speeds.  Not only is Mars moving more slowly near the time of its direct station, but Mercury is also slower than normal as it approaches its own direct station on Wednesday, January 18.  While tomorrow's Mars-Mercury aspect will be quite close -- just two degrees -- the aspect will tighten further next week as Mercury stations at 14 Sagittarius.  Since the slower-moving Mars will still be transiting 14 Taurus, the aspect will be almost exact.

So even if we have a lower than expected inflation number tomorrow and the market rallies, it will soon become more vulnerable to declines as Mercury comes under the full aspect of Mars.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo credit: Stephano Tilli

Stalemate in DC: GOP fails to confirm McCarthy as Speaker

(4 January 2023)  Some surprising political drama is unfolding in Washington, DC this week as the US House of Representatives has yet to elect a Speaker.   Normally, this occurs on January 3rd when the winning party votes its Majority Leader to become Speaker and thereby becomes third in line to the presidency according to the US Constitution.  Although the Republicans won the most seats in the midterm elections, their party cannot settle on who should be the next Speaker of the House.

Kevin McCarthy is Majority Leader and was widely expected to win the largely procedural vote.   But the conservative wing in the GOP, the Freedom Caucus, has refused to join the rest of their fellow party members in supporting McCarthy, deeming him too moderate.  Thus far, McCarthy has lost all six ballots over the past two days and remains about 10 votes short of the necessary 218 to secure the Speaker’s chair.  Negotiations are ongoing to break the unprecedented stalemate with various compromises suggested such as veteran GOP Congressman Steve Scalise, or even a possible unity Speaker who would draw support from both parties.

Since we don’t know McCarthy’s birth time, any observations I might have are very much of the “back-of-the-envelope” variety which may well turn out to be wrong. Since we don’t know the time of the birth, we don’t know his Ascendant and hence none of the house placements or house rulerships of any of his planets.  And therefore we also don’t know his current major or minor dasha periods either, although it is likely the Saturn major dasha.

But we do know that his Scorpio Moon is his Chandra Lagna and it is currently receiving the helpful aspect from Jupiter in sidereal Pisces.  This is definitely a positive astrological asset for anyone to have when in consideration for a new job.  But the current state of uncertainty may be due to the Saturn (28 Capricorn) alignment with his natal Rahu (28 Taurus).  Close Saturn-Rahu aspects can coincide with situations where structures and traditions (Saturn) are called into question and authority is undermined (Rahu).

However, there are some favourable transits coming up for McCarthy over the weekend.  The Sun will conjoin his natal Venus (24 Sagittarius) on Sunday at the same time that Venus will conjoin his natal Sun (13 Capricorn).  These are both positive influences that suggest some kind of significant relief and perhaps even joy, although I wonder what other scenarios could emerge whereby McCarthy is happy given these Sun and Venus transits but he doesn’t become Speaker.  Well, DC politics is hard to figure at the best of times so perhaps even if some other GOP establishment candidate is found like Scalise, McCarthy could still exercise considerable influence over him.  And yet if McCarthy loses the Speaker’s chair it would represent a huge defeat for him.  I’m not sure the planets are sufficiently negative in the coming days for that kind of starkly negative outcome.  And if he can hold on until the weekend, then his chances would improve somewhat.

But if the Speaker is decided this week, then maybe McCarthy is more likely to lose. Scalise’s chart actually looks fairly good for early January, although it is also lacking a time of birth. Given the uncertainty in the birth data, I wouldn’t be surprised by any outcome in this stalemate.  But I would be less surprised if McCarthy is eventually named Speaker.

Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks have been mixed to start the New Year, although they closed higher today.  The gains were not unexpected given some of the positive transits such as the Venus-Jupiter alignment.

We can also spot some lesser bullish transits which could boost sentiment for a while longer here.  These are four-planet alignments based on angular separations involving benefics such as Jupiter.  So besides today’s Venus-Jupiter 90 degree alignment, there was also Mercury-Venus alignment (=11 degrees) which closely matched the current angular separation of Jupiter and Chiron (=10 degrees).  While these are not full-strength aspects, they nonetheless form a part of the overall planetary puzzle.

Further upside is also not impossible in the coming days since tomorrow’s Mercury-Pluto separation (= 9 degrees) will equal the Jupiter-Neptune separation.  The likelihood of further gains may also be seen in the fact that the Jupiter-Neptune separation (=9/10 degrees) will equal that of Jupiter-Chiron next week.  While this doesn’t guarantee further gains, it nonetheless could stave off the worst effects of the Saturn-Neptune alignment that is exact this coming Friday (Jan 6). This 9/10 degree separation will be replicated by other pairs of faster-moving planets next week, e.g. Monday’s Sun-Pluto pairing.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.