Debt ceiling talks go down to the wire

(24 May 2023)  Financial markets are showing signs of nervousness this week as the debt ceiling drama unfolds in Washington, DC.  Stocks have posted declines over the past two days as the White House and the GOP-controlled House attempt to find areas of compromise to avoid a potentially disastrous debt default.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has stated that June 1 is the X-date after which the US will not be able to meet is debt obligations, while the Congressional Budget Office has suggested it may actually be sometime later in the June.

Even if the CBO is correct and US government runs out of money later in the month of June, markets are nonetheless focused on Thursday, June 1 as a critical date.  If a deal is not reached by then, we should expect much more market turbulence as investors reassess their risk and reallocate their capital in light of this new uncertain terrain.

A useful astrological perspective on this situation considers the Inauguration horoscope of President Joe Biden.  The Inauguration chart for Jan 20, 2021 reflects the ups and downs of his both administration and the country according to the dominant transit influences at any given time.  Currently, we can easily see why stress levels are no doubt rising in the White House.  Transiting Mars is now opposite the 10th house alignment of the Sun (6 Capricorn), Saturn (9 Cap) and Jupiter (13 Cap).  Since Mars is the planet of frustration, conflict and anger, it is not surprising that negotiations between Joe Biden and GOP Speaker Kevin McCarthy have not shown much progress.  In recent days, Mars (6 Cancer) was exactly opposite the natal Sun and transiting Pluto at 6 Capricorn.  Mars (conflict) was in a tense alignment with the Sun (government, leaders) and Pluto (power, coercion).

By next Thursday, Mars will be closely opposite Saturn (institutions, tradition) and Jupiter (justice, prosperity).  On the face of it, this is not a good combination for a last-minute debt ceiling deal before June 1.  One might think that we merely have to wait until Mars is past its exact opposition with Jupiter on June 2 for a deal to be struck to avert a default.  That view actually makes good sense but the position of Saturn raises questions about the presence of a more significant obstacle.

Transiting Saturn (12 Aquarius) is now casting its full-strength 3rd house/60 degree aspect to the Mars-Uranus conjunction in the Inauguration chart.  This is a very stressful combination that suggests a protracted period of conflict and frustration.  Since Mars-Uranus also carries a military and violent symbolism, there is a higher risk of some noteworthy military actions taking place in the coming weeks.  The Saturn transit is particularly troublesome here since it is slowing down ahead of its retrograde station on June 17.  This means that its alignment with Mars and Uranus will be extended for several weeks through the entire month of June and even into July.

In fact, stress levels are likely to rise further next week since transiting Mars (12 Cancer) will aspect Saturn (12 Aquarius) by its most malefic 8th house/210 degree aspect.  In this way, the Mars-Saturn aspect will activate the Mars-Uranus conjunction and the natal Jupiter at the same time.

What could this mean?  If it were only Mars afflicting planets in the natal chart, we would expect the usual 11th hour deal before any serious damage is done.  But the presence of Saturn here also suggests this situation could be more serious.  If Mars is the trigger, It could still resolve fairly quickly after June 2, but the damage to national credibility may be more severe.  While an outright default seems impossible, this double affliction by Mars and Saturn in the Inauguration chart alerts us to the possibility of the situation getting worse than many expect.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Solar Return: the NYSE was founded 231 years ago today

(17 May 2023)  The New York Stock Exchange celebrated a birthday today as the world’s largest securities market is now 231 years old.  The NYSE was founded as the Sun transited the 6th degree of sidereal Taurus, perhaps not coincidentally, the sign of the bull.  Due to the precession of the equinoxes, the Sun didn’t actually transit that degree today but will instead mark its exact solar return to 6 Taurus on May 21.  The resulting solar return chart is said to provide an overview of some of the central themes that will shape the fortunes of the NYSE for the coming year.

The chart looks potent with a number of close alignments in play.  As a rule, solar return charts should be interpreted both on their own and in relation to the natal chart. Alignments involving benefic planets tend to indicate growth and increase the likelihood of positive returns while a preponderance of malefic aspects may undermine sentiment and thus increase the risk of declines.

There are several potentially negative alignments here.  First, the Mars-Pluto opposition across the 1-7 axis is a very difficult placement.  Even if we throw out the impact of the conjunction with the Ascendant since there is some uncertainty about the 8.52 a.m birth time, the closeness of the Mars-Pluto opposition is clearly bearish, especially since Mars is in Cancer, its sign of debilitation.  While it may not, by itself, be sufficient to translate into a down year for stocks, it does suggest some significant volatility is likely over the next 12 months.

But the fact that this bearish opposition also forms a tense square alignment with a close Jupiter-Rahu conjunction is another red flag. Jupiter-Rahu conjunctions tend to be bearish on their own as Rahu’s disruptive influence works to undermines Jupiter’s confident optimism.  In an individual’s chart, this can sometimes manifest as a compulsive materialism and acquisitiveness as one might find with an over-confident person.  And indeed in terms of the stock market, it can be temporarily bullish.  But more often, the Jupiter-Rahu conjunction is associated with periods of economic instability and stock market declines.

Interestingly, the Jupiter-Rahu conjunction forms a fairly close square to the Mars-Pluto opposition.  That’s another possible warning sign, although it may simply represent an intensification of energy.  Taking a more sanguine view of this alignment, it could represent major developments in the stock market that keeps it in the public eye over the next year.  This could therefore come from moves up or down — or both.

The other aspect of note here is that of Mercury-Saturn.  Saturn casts its full-strength 3rd house/60 degree aspect to Mercury, just one degree from exact.  Saturn is usually a bearish influence upon Mercury, even if Mercury is separating from Saturn here.  So that’s another likely bearish influence in the chart.

The other layer of interpretation concerns how the return chart overlays the natal chart.  The Mars-Pluto-Jupiter-Rahu alignment highlights the Saturn-Neptune opposition in the natal chart. This is also not a plus since the Saturn-Neptune opposition is a very negative influence.  Since Mars and Pluto are also negative, there is an elevated risk for a significant correction in the coming year with this pattern.

If there is a silver lining here, it is that neither the Sun nor the Moon are afflicted in either the natal or the solar return chart. Since the Sun and Moon are the most important points in the chart — after the Ascendant, that is — the absence of any strong affliction could offer some hope that the stock market may manage to avoid the worst.

But the bottom line here is that the solar return chart looks very challenging.  While it is important to remember that solar return charts do not have the final say in terms of predictive influence, the negatives in this chart do not augur well for the coming year.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo Credit: josullivan.59

Stocks rise after CPI; Mercury approaches its direct station

(10 May 2023) US stocks ended higher Wednesday after the latest CPI report showed another decline in annual inflation to 4.9%.  While the core inflation number was unchanged at 5.5%, markets nonetheless welcomed the continued easing of price pressures as the dollar and bond yields finished the day lower.

Stocks appear to be moving sideways in recent days as optimism from falling inflation has been largely offset by ongoing concerns over the banking system and the prospect of some political brinkmanship over the impending US debt ceiling deadline on June 1 or thereabouts.

This mixed outlook may be reflected in the current planetary influences.  Bullish sentiment is due in part to the approaching Jupiter-Pluto square.  As is the case with most Jupiter alignments, this pairing is usually bullish, even if the 90-degree square angle can be less positive than other angles such as the conjunction or the 120-degree trine.

And yet Saturn is also an active influence through its ongoing 120-degree aspect from Ketu (South Lunar Node).  While this alignment is separating, it is still within effective range.  More immediately, however, we note that Mercury is backing into an alignment with Rahu (North Lunar Node) and Saturn as it culminates its 23-day retrograde cycle.   Although it is a benefic planet by nature, Mercury is more commonly associated with bearishness when it is aligned with malefic planets such as Rahu and Saturn.

 

Mercury is due to end its retrograde cycle late in the evening (ET) on Sunday, May 14 when it will station direct and resume its normal forward motion.   At the time of the station, Mercury will be in a three-degree conjunction with Rahu and in near-exact 60-degree alignment with Saturn.  Taken together, these influences look bearish for market sentiment.

Of course, since the station occurs when markets are closed on Sunday, it is possible that some of the worst effects of this pattern could be mitigated.  Nonetheless, Mercury will be in close alignment with both Rahu and Saturn for several days both before and after its direct station.  With that in mind, it is best to think of Mercury as passing through a window of vulnerability where its normally benefic nature can be subverted by negative influences.

This affliction therefore seems likely to coincide with a rise in volatility in the days ahead.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo Credit: Dean Hochman

Fed hikes rates ahead of Friday's lunar eclipse

(3 May 2023) As expected, the Fed hiked interest rates another 25 basis points today as part of their ongoing effort to curb inflation.  While Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the possibility of pausing the tightening cycle in June if it was warranted by the data, he remained somewhat non-committal about the direction of interest rates for the rest of the year.  While mere mention of a possible pause was welcome news to investors, the market eventually sold off late this afternoon as the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s future rate path began to sink in.

Markets have been looking more vulnerable in recent days as economic data is showing more signs of softening.  And yet if inflation continues to be elevated while the economy is slowing, it could paint the Fed into a corner without any obvious escape plan.  Chair Powell is hoping that the impending recession will do most of the Fed’s dirty work as layoffs will dampen wage growth and thus break the wage-price feedback loop.

This period of choppy volatility may not yet be done as we approach Friday’s lunar eclipse.  The eclipse is due to reach its maximum at 1.33 p.m. New York time.  While eclipses tend to have bad astrological reputations as they are often seen as harbingers of difficulty and disruption, this isn’t always the case as far as the stock market is concerned.   In fact, some eclipses pass without any significant market reaction at all.  This one is a bit more suspect, however, since it occurs at 20 Libra, just four degrees from an opposition with Uranus, the planet of sudden and unexpected changes.  And yet it’s possible that the Venus-Jupiter-Neptune alignment could exert a short term mitigating effect.

 

But the larger planetary picture is looking somewhat unstable.  The most obvious potential trouble spot involves retrograde Mercury which is slowly backing into a near-conjunction with Rahu (North Lunar Node) ahead of its direct station on May 14 at 11 Aries.  And both Mercury and Rahu come under the influence of the full-strength 3rd house/60 degree aspect from Saturn.  Aside from any potential eclipse effects, this is a decidedly difficult alignment.  We should therefore be open to the possibility that collective sentiment could worsen next week when this alignment makes its closest approach.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo Credit: AdamChandler86

Stocks fall after UPS warns amid fresh banking jitters

(26 April 2023) Stocks have moved lower so far this week on renewed banking sector fears after First Republic Bank reported a shocking loss of 40% of its deposits in the first quarter.  Not even earnings beats from tech giants Microsoft and Google were enough to offset the banking jitters and the pessimistic forward guidance of transportation bellwether UPS.  As Dow theory tells us, underperformance by transportation stocks suggests the broader markets will likely trend lower over time.  It’s not a good omen.

This week’s decline is a clear manifestation of a double affliction to the Sun.  The Sun (10 Aries) was not only conjunct Rahu (North Lunar Node) on Monday and Tuesday, but it was also under the simultaneous and exact 3rd house/60 degree aspect of Saturn (10 Aquarius).  Since both Rahu and Saturn are considered malefics, it is not surprising that this double affliction to the Sun should have coincided with a loss of investor confidence and a market decline.  In astrology, the Sun symbolizes confidence and vitality.

Sentiment was even more likely to be damaged since this difficult Sun-Rahu-Saturn alignment occurred near sensitive points in some relevant market horoscopes.  For example, the Ascendant (8 Aries) of the NASDAQ chart (Feb 8, 1971) is directly impacted by this malefic alignment as it is only 2 degrees from the Sun-Rahu conjunction.  Saturn’s square aspect to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction has also not been helpful.

 

With Rahu and Saturn now moving past their exact alignment, it could be that the market may be in a better position to rebound. While that is possible, I would note that Rahu, which always moves in retrograde motion, is approaching its exact conjunction with the Ascendant at 8 Aries.  This could destabilize the market for a while longer, even if the Saturn influence is diminishing in the coming days.

We should carefully monitor the movement of retrograde Mercury here, since it is next to fall under the exact aspect of Saturn.  It will form an exact 60 degree aspect with Saturn between May 11 and May 18 just as it completes its retrograde cycle.  Mercury is due to station direct on May 14 at 11 Aries when it will resume its normal forward motion and begin to escape from the pessimistic and disruptive influences of Saturn and Rahu.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

 

Photo Credit: Ryan McKnight

Stocks recover as banking fears subside

(29 March 2023) US stocks have bounced in recent days as the banking crisis has faded from the headlines after a series of carefully-orchestrated bailouts and buyouts.  The major indexes have been slowly pushing their way back up towards their early February highs.  While the rebound has temporarily put on hold all the doom and gloom talk about the economy, we should note that stocks have basically moved sideways since November.

Following on my previous examination of the use of progressed cycles in natal charts, I thought we would explore how this timing technique can be used in the horoscope of the S&P 500 index.  This is arguably the most important stock index in the world as it covers the 500 largest publicly-traded companies in the US.  Founded in 1957, the S&P 500 provides an indispensable window on the fluctuations in collective sentiment that influence stock prices.

By way of example, we are focusing solely on the minor progressed chart.  This progression is based on the lunar month such that the length of lunar month (29 days) is equivalent to one year of calendar time.  The minor progressed chart cast for today (March 29, 2023) is derived from the planetary positions for February 11, 1962.  The resulting 1:13 time compression provides a useful bridge between the often fast-moving transits and much slower progressions such as the day-for-a-year secondary progressions.

 

Looking at today’s progressed chart, we can see two potentially significant groupings of planets.  At the top of the chart, is a conjunction of Venus, Sun and Jupiter.  This is clearly a bullish arrangement which may partially explain the recent rebound in stocks.  However, we should note that the faster-moving Sun (29 Capricorn) and Venus (2 Aquarius) are now clearly separating from Jupiter (26 Capricorn).  This suggests that whatever the bullish influence of this triple conjunction, it is now likely on the wane.  It is possible that the close 90-degree alignment with the Moon has recently activated another pulse of this bullish Venus-Sun-Jupiter energy, however.  Since the minor progressed Moon moves about one degree per day, this influence is likely to diminish fairly soon also.

But the other obvious pattern is the conjunction of retrograde Mercury (16 Capricorn) with Mars (14 Capricorn) and Saturn (11 Capricorn).  Mars is well past Saturn now so that is likely no longer a major influence.  But since Mercury is moving backwards it will form an exact conjunction with Mars in the coming weeks.  In fact, the exact conjunction is due to occur on April 16.   Since Mercury-Mars alignments are generally bearish for stocks, it is quite possible that markets could come under pressure once again around the time of this conjunction.  The fact that both planets will also align with Pluto may serve to amplify its negative effects.

While the Mercury-Mars conjunction still has yet to reach its theoretical maximum impact, we should note that the progressed Ascendant (11 Aries) is square progressed Saturn (11 Capricorn).  That is a negative influence that argues for some weakness in the very near term.

The bottom line here is that the minor progressed chart looks increasingly difficult as we head into April.   So when will the market drop?   The Mercury-Mars conjunction is within close enough range that prices could begin to decline at any time.  That said, the probability for a decline rises the closer we get to the April 16 conjunction date.  Even in that case, it is possible that some of the associated decline may actually occur after April 16.  In that sense, the date of conjunction should be seen in probabilistic terms.

Of course, the usual caveats apply.  This minor progressed chart is only one of many such derived progressed cycles and thus form only a single slice of the overall forecast picture.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Markets decline after Fed hikes another 25 basis points

(22 March 2023)  Investors hit the sell button today after Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered hawkish comments in his FOMC press conference after raising interest rates another 25 basis points.  Despite lingering uncertainty from recent bank failures, Powell remained committed to fighting inflation and ruled out any rate cuts in 2023.  Powell’s bucket of cold water came a surprise to some as markets had been pricing in at least two rate cuts in the second half of 2023 in the wake of the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank.

The decline coincided with a exact 45-degree alignment of Jupiter and Saturn.  Although the 45-degree alignment is not a traditional Vedic aspect, Jupiter and Saturn were closely conjunct in the D-8 Ashthamsa chart, which corresponds to the 8th harmonic chart.  The blending of the energies of Jupiter and Saturn tends to be bearish as the slower speed of Saturn usually gets the final word in against Jupiter’s preference for optimism.   The other potential bearish influence here is the approaching alignment of Mars (4 Gemini), Ketu (10 Libra) and Saturn (7 Aquarius).  Each planet is separated by about 120 degrees in this Grand Trine pattern and thus creates a resonance where the energies of the planets are amplified.  Since all three planets are natural malefics, it is not unexpected that stocks fell with the approach of this pattern.

 

 

We can also see how today’s decline might have manifested in the 13-day progressed cycle chart.  This 13-day cycle is another way to describing the minor progressed chart where the arrangement of the planets one lunar month after birth is symbolically equivalent to one full year of life.  The resulting 1:13 time compression can provide insights into future trends that are sometimes not apparent in the standard transit chart.

 

Looking at the NASDAQ horoscope (Feb 8 1971, 10.00 a.m.), we can see that this week’s planets feature some difficult alignments.  Progressed Mars (22 Scorpio) aligns with both progressed Saturn (22 Gemini) and natal Saturn (22 Aries).  While neither of these alignments are full-strength aspects, their precise geometry is nonetheless important.  Since Mars and Saturn are both malefic planets, their alignments are more likely to coincide with negative sentiment and stock market declines.

But compared with transits, progressed planets move much more slowly.  For example, transiting Mars moves about 35-40 minutes of arc per day.  Minor progressed Mars moves just 3 arc minutes per day, while this progressed retrograde Saturn moves just 3 arc seconds per day.  This means that the Mars-Saturn-Saturn alignment will be within range for much longer than a simple Mars transit.  This suggests that today’s negative sentiment could last for a while longer.

While this is a difficult chart, we should be careful not to place too much emphasis on it as it is only one cycle out of many possible cycles.  It is possible it could be offset by transits, or the 27-day progressed cycle for the NASDAQ chart, or indeed the cumulative influences from the other relevant natal charts such as the NYSE chart (as noted in last week’s update) or the S&P 500 chart, among others.

Other possible caveats here is the upcoming Sun-Jupiter alignment in this minor progressed chart.  This is a more bullish influence that is likely to bring some upside over the next several weeks when the alignment tightens.  Using its exact alignment as its theoretical maximum influence, the bullish influence from this 13-day cycle chart is likely to peak sometime in the second half of April.  Significantly, by that time Mars will have moved two full degrees past both progressed Saturn and natal Saturn.  This suggests that the negative energy in this particular chart is more likely to have waned while the positive energy will be on the rise.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

The NYSE Horoscope: Understanding the 27-day progressed cycle

 

(15 March 2023) One indispensable tool in the astrologer's toolkit is the planetary progression.  Progressed cycles, or progressions, are a Western astrological technique which yields unique information about future trends, both for financial markets and for individual life outcomes.  Briefly stated, a progression moves a horoscope symbolically forward through time at particular rates that are based on the motion of the Sun and Moon.  The more common secondary progression moves a horoscope forward at a rate of one calendar day for a year of life.  So to determine the dominant influences on an individual's life at the age of 30, we can progress the chart forward by 30 days from birth and analyze the key aspects and planetary placements with respect to the natal chart.

Less commonly used are the tertiary and minor progressions, which are calculated based on the motion of the Moon.  A tertiary progression assumes the symbolic equivalence of one calendar day with one lunar month of life (about 27 days) while minor progressions equate one lunar month with one year of life, which produces a time compression factor of about 13.  It is therefore possible to determine future trends based on the planetary positions of these progressions.

Progressions can therefore be thought of as time-gears, each having a different ratio.  If the Sun-based secondary progression has a time-gear ratio of 1:365, tertiary progressions can be understood as a 27-day cycle with a compression ratio of 1:27, while the minor progression is a 13-day cycle with a time compression of 1:13.  Shorter progressed cycles such as the 13-day minor progression are more responsive to the passage of time and are therefore more accurate for predictive purposes.  And yet because they are faster-moving, they are less powerful in terms of decisively shaping outcomes.  In this way, progressions adhere to the standard astrological principle that the slower the planet, the more powerful it is.  However, the paradox is that the slower the planet, the more difficult it is to accurately predict the timing of its worldly manifestation.

By way of example, let's take a look at the tertiary progressed 27-day cycle of the New York Stock Exchange chart (May 17, 1792).  Currently, we can see there is one very close aspect of note: progressed Mercury (28Li30) is opposite progressed retrograde Mars (29Ar14).   Tertiary progressions move much slower than transits, so it is important to remember that the motion a planet would move in one day equals about one month of clock time.   Since Mercury moves a bit more than one degree per day, this equates to about one degree for every four weeks of clock time.  Here Mars is retrograde and moving much more slowly -- just one degree in three months.  With the two planets moving towards each other, they will form an exact opposition on March 26.

As a rule, Mercury-Mars aspects are usually negative and the 180-degree opposition is especially so.  The close proximity of this bearish aspect is one reason why stocks have been declining in recent weeks as the opposition tightens.   The Moon-Venus-Uranus alignment could offer some relief in the near term, but it doesn't look as strong.  Also, the Moon moves much quicker and will only be within range for 2 or 3 days.  And Tuesday's bounce may well have used up some of its positive energy already.  Once it moves away, the Venus-Uranus alignment likely won't be close enough to offset the effect of the ongoing Mercury-Mars aspect.

While the March 26 date is significant for understanding the theoretical maximum of this bearish aspect, it does not necessarily mean that the stock market will bottom at that time.  Other factors are also part of the overall equation, including transits, 13-day minor progressions, and indeed, other relevant charts (S&P 500, NASDAQ, etc.).

We would therefore have to reassess the overall market situation once the progressed opposition of Mercury and Mars begins to separate on March 27.

Nonetheless, the possible continuing of this bearish energy going into March 26 suggests a sustainable rebound is less likely in the coming days.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo Credit: alex.ch

Ukraine facing possible defeat in Bakhmut

 

(8 March 2023) The war continues in Ukraine will no end in sight.  The first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two weeks ago was marked by little fanfare by either side as the war has entered a more punishing, attritional phase.  Ukraine regained some of its lost territory in the fall but the winter has seen Russia counterattack as Putin’s armies remain in control of much of the four contested provinces in the east.

Fighting has been particularly intense in the strategic town of Bakhmut and it now looks as though Russia is on the verge of capturing it.  Both sides had funneled considerable resources of men and materiel into the town with thousands of dead and wounded on both sides.  While objective reporting of the war is hard to find, it seems that Russia may be taking the upper hand as equipment shortages are hampering Ukraine’s effectiveness on the battlefield.  Newly-pledged NATO tanks may be greatly appreciated by President Zelenskiy, but it could be some months yet before they can make a difference.

The horoscope of Ukraine suggests they are in a very tough spot at the moment.    Transiting Saturn (6 Aquarius) is forming a very close opposition to all of those planets in early Leo.  The Saturn influence on Jupiter, Mercury and Venus reflects the economic devastation that Russia has inflicted on its infrastructure as Ukraine has become almost entirely dependent on NATO financial and military support.  Its economy has been so thoroughly disrupted that even government payments to its senior citizens is now being supplied by the US.   And now the Saturn opposition is approaching the Sun, the planet that signifies government and its leadership. Zelenskiy himself may be facing a difficult situation in the coming days as the probable loss of Bakhmut could seriously erode moral and confidence and cause some of its allies to question their sponsorship.

More immediately, we can see a very intense Mars alignment occurring in the middle of next week.  On Wednesday, March 15, natal Mars (1 Virgo) will be exactly squared by transiting Mars (1 Gemini) and opposed by both the Sun (0 Pisces) and Neptune (1 Pisces).  The transiting Moon on Wednesday morning completes the high-energy Grand Cross alignment which should coincide with a significant Mars-type event.  Since Mars signifies the military, of course, it seems likely that Ukraine will suffer a military defeat.  Given the deteriorating situation in Bakhmut, it is possible that it will finally be lost to the Russians on or near this day.  That said, the other afflictions in the chart suggests it could actually be an even more important setback which damages the government (Saturn-Sun) in some way other than a loss of a single town.

It is unclear how financial markets might react to a major Ukrainian military defeat.  Markets have likely largely discounted the probable loss of Bakhmut, so it is unlikely is a simple defeat there would move markets very much.  But if there is additional political fallout from some such setback, it could have a larger impact on investor sentiment.  And with Tuesday’s much-awaited US CPI number, next week is shaping up to be a memorable one in the markets.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo Credit: UNICEF Ukraine

10-year Treasury yield hits 4% on renewed inflation fears

 

(1 March 2023) Despite the Fed’s concerted efforts to tighten monetary policy over the past year, inflation remains a major problem for the economy.  Today’s ISM manufacturing price report came in stronger than expected, renewing fears that we may be facing a fresh wave of price increases.  Not surprisingly, stocks fell and bond yields moved higher as investors recalibrated their expectations regarding further interest rate hikes.  With the benchmark 10-year Treasury now trading above the psychologically important 4% level, it now seems certain that the Fed will be forced to raise rates much higher than previously expected.

The return of inflation is not unexpected.  In a December post, I speculated that bond yields would likely move higher in spring given the afflictions in the horoscope of US Treasuries.  While it isn’t quite spring yet, it’s still very close, especially since the specified aspect is well within range.  In addition to the harmful ongoing Saturn dasha influence that will last into September 2023, the key measurement in this respect is the opposition aspect from Saturn (5 Aquarius) to the natal Sun (5 Leo).  This aspect is fast approaching its exact opposition, even if its effects can linger for days or sometimes even weeks after the precise 180-degree aspect.

 

We can also see that the Treasury chart is also under pressure from the transit of Mars (25 Taurus).  It is approaching its natal position (0 Gemini) in the 10th house at the top of the chart and in so doing will cast its square aspect to Mercury (27 Leo) and the Ascendant.  While Mars transits to the 10th house are often not that bad and can even be quite constructive, its square aspect to Mercury here looks more malefic and suggests that treasuries will fall further in value which would push yields even higher.  Of course, if yields go higher, stocks become more vulnerable to declines as they often have an inverse relationship.  This relationship is perhaps even more robust these days given the speed with which interest rates have risen in just one year.

While worries over rising yields and inflation could abate once Saturn moves out of range of its opposition to the Sun in the next few weeks, we should note that Saturn is due to station at 13 Aquarius in a close square aspect to the Moon (12 Scorpio) in June.  This suggests that yields will likely spike higher sometime during the May to July period when this Saturn-Moon square is making its closest aspect.  Whether this produces even higher highs in yields is hard to say, but it does look like it will be a significant move higher.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo Credit: Son of Groucho

Market slumps after Fed minutes

 

(22 February 2023) US stocks moved lower for a fourth straight day after the Fed minutes reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to higher rates for the rest of the year.  Investors have become more cautious in recent weeks as stubbornly high inflation may force the Fed to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy.  Higher rates are generally bad news for stocks since they make borrowing more expensive which reduces spending and puts pressure on the corporate bottom line.

Thus far, this week's pullback has coincided with a bearish alignment of Mercury, Mars and Uranus.   While none of these planets formed full-strength Vedic aspects with each other, they nonetheless were in a close alignment for yesterday's big sell-off as all three planets occupied the 21st or 22nd sidereal degree of their respective signs: Mercury (21 Capricorn), Mars (22 Taurus) and Uranus (21 Aries).   As a rule, alignments involving Mars tend to have more downside risk, and Mercury-Mars alignments are somewhat more vulnerable to declines.  In this case, the Uranus factor may have added some amplification to the volatile Mercury-Mars energy.

 

 

While both Mercury and Mars moved past their alignment with Uranus today, they nonetheless formed an exact 120-degree aspect this afternoon.  This was perhaps a lingering bearish influence in today's trading session, which, although negative, was much less negative than Tuesday.   And while the 120-degree angle is not considered a proper Vedic aspect, it is worth noting that Mercury and Mars were conjunct (with Rahu) in the key 9th harmonic/divisional or navamsa chart.  Although less important than the rasi chart, the navamsa chart can often provide additional information of the relevant planetary energies.

 

With faster-moving Mercury now separating from its alignment with Mars, the late week should be less bearish.  In addition, we can see that the approach of the Sun-Venus-Rahu alignment could be more bullish for Thursday and Friday.  The inclusion of Rahu in this pattern is a matter of some debate perhaps given its natural malefic quality.  However, it tends to be changeable more than anything else and is usually less bearish than Mars.  In many cases, it can actually be quite bullish.  Also, its energy tends to work better with Venus, at least for material matters such as the stock market.   Bulls could also get a boost from the Moon's conjunction with Jupiter and Chiron.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Gold extends losses on higher than expected US inflation

(15 February 2023)  Gold has extended its decline this week after Tuesday’s CPI print came in higher than expected.  While still lower than the previous month, the stubbornly high 6.4% annual rate of inflation rate has reminded investors that the Fed will likely to have to keep rates ‘higher for longer’.  Higher interest rates are generally anathema to gold since elevated yields tend to be more attractive to investors who receive no such compensation for holding bullion.  Gold finished Wednesday’s session at $1845, well below its February 2 high of $1975.

The pullback in gold is not unexpected once we take into account the relevant planetary alignments.  First, we should note that this week’s Sun-Saturn conjunction at 3 Aquarius is typically bearish as Saturn’s constraining nature tends to block the Sun’s promise of traditional wealth and prosperity.  Since the Sun is one of the key planetary significators for gold, it is not surprising that this affliction by Saturn should coincide with a significant decline in the price of bullion.

If we look at the 1919 horoscope for gold, we can also see another culprit for the current consolidation.  Ketu (South Lunar Node) is exactly transiting over the Ascendant at 12 degrees of sidereal Libra.  In financial astrology, Ketu-Ascendant configurations tend to be bearish since Ketu is associated with anti-materialistic and spiritual qualities which are inimical to the world of mundane economic gains.  And the square alignment of Mercury (11 Capricorn) to the Ascendant-Ketu conjunction likely added to the negative price action for gold this week.

 

Moreover, the gold chart suffers further affliction since transiting Rahu (12 Aries) exactly aspects the Mercury-Saturn conjunction in the natal chart at 11-12 degrees of sidereal Leo.  While Rahu is usually less malefic than Ketu in financial matters, its influence here on Mercury and Saturn is unhelpful since it combines poorly with both of these planets.  By contrast, Rahu-Venus or Rahu-Jupiter aspects can often be bullish.

While the slow-moving Ketu and Rahu afflictions could well depress gold prices for a while longer, it is quite possible we could see gold enjoy a  bounce in coming days as the Sun begins to move out of range of its conjunction with Saturn.  For the record, the exact Sun-Saturn conjunction occurs tomorrow, February 16, at 11.48 a.m. EST.  This conjunction may be seen as a moment of theoretical maximum bearishness for gold in the short term.  Of course, other concurrent influences from the likes of Ketu and Rahu will adhere to their own timetable.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

 

Fed's hawkish talk sinks stocks

(8 February 2023) The Fed giveth, and the Fed taketh away.  After rallying on Fed Chair Powell’s speech yesterday, stocks fell back down to earth today as comments from other Fed governors took a more hawkish tone.  Indexes fell by more than 1% on Wednesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned of a “long fight” against inflation that might require rates being higher for longer than many investors expect.

All these Fed speakers are creating a considerable amount of confusion as market participants try to anticipate when the Fed may finally end its tightening cycle and begin to cut interest rates.  While inflation may well have peaked last summer, the most recent jobs report was stronger than expected and showed no signs of slack in the labor market in light of record low unemployment.  As long as the labor market is robust, wages will keep trending higher and continue to put upward pressure on consumer prices.

As I noted in last week’s update, the near term planetary situation looks uncertain at best.  The horoscope of the Federal Reserve is coming under increased pressure as transiting Mars approaches its conjunction with natal Saturn (20 Taurus) over the next week or so.   This Mars affliction may manifest as greater criticism of the way the Fed communicates its policies as well as greater scrutiny of the policies themselves.

The confusion surrounding the Fed’s approach may also damage investor sentiment and produce more skittishness in the markets.  Based on this week’s transits, Saturn is assuming a greater prominence in the coming days.   In fact, Wednesday’s decline coincided closely with the 30-degree alignment of Mercury (2 Capricorn) with Saturn (2 Aquarius).  And yet, this two-factor pattern is probably not the whole reason for today’s selling.

If we look under the surface, we can see that Saturn is involved with larger configurations involving slower moving and more powerful planets.  The transit chart cast for Friday, February 10 illustrates this more clearly.  Thus, the angular separation of Saturn and Pluto (=28°03) almost exactly matches that of Mars and Uranus (=27°39).  When the angular separations of two pairs of planets are equal, their energies tend to resonate more strongly.  Since there are two natural malefics planets here — Mars and Saturn — the effect of this configuration is more likely to be bearish on the markets.

A few additional points can be made.  First, the conjunction of Mercury with Pluto at 4 Capricorn should serve to amplify the bearish effect of this pattern, although it could also manifest a day before or after given a standard margin of error.  We should also note that the Mars-Uranus/Saturn-Pluto alignment won’t be exact until the weekend.  While it’s close enough to increase the bearish influence later this week, it’s also possible its effects could be delayed or manifest more fully outside regular trading hours.  Also, we can see a possible offsetting bullish influence on Friday (late) as the angular separation of Venus-Neptune almost matches that of Jupiter-Chiron around 5 degrees.  However, since this four-planet alignment only becomes exact on Saturday, it is uncertain if its bullish influence will be felt during Friday’s US trading hours.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo Credit: M.V. Jantzen

Fed hikes rates as market anticipate dovish turn

(1 February 2023) Fed Chair Jerome Powell must be feeling pretty good today after delivering on the widely expected 25 basis point rate hike.   Markets rallied strongly after the Fed decision in hopes that the Fed may only raise rates one more time this year before reversing course in the second half.   Investor optimism is rooted in the belief that the Fed may now be able to engineer a ‘soft landing’ for the economy, as inflation is tamed without inducing a recession.

But is the prospect of a more dovish Fed enough to lift stocks out of their bear market?  Readers may recall a previous post where I discussed the Fed horoscope in context of the stock market.   I suggested that an interim low for US stocks might coincide with a very difficult Saturn transit (24 Capricorn) to the 8th house cusp of the Fed’s chart in October 2022.  Once Saturn stationed direct on Oct 23 and began to move away from this sensitive point, market sentiment improved.   As a general rule, I have found that when the Fed’s horoscope comes under transit afflictions by malefic planets, financial markets become more vulnerable to declines.  While the correlation isn’t perfect, the connection between between the condition of the Fed’s chart and the stock market is always worth considering.

Another piece of the puzzle is the current dasha sequence in the Fed horoscope.  The Federal Reserve is currently running its Rahu-Mercury dasha period, which began in July 2021 and will last until Feb 2024.  The Rahu major period (2013-2031) promises unexpected or unprecedented actions which could have a disruptive effect on the wider society.  Rahu’s placement in the 9th house suggests an increasingly tense relationship with authority (i.e. the US government) over the course of its dasha period.  We can also predict that the Fed’s Rahu period is more likely to be unproductive and turbulent because Rahu is afflicted by a square aspect from Saturn in the natal chart.   While there has been long-standing debate about the true extent of the Fed’s independence from government, this Rahu influence suggests this independence could be tested even more severely than it has in the past (e.g. Arthur Burns under Nixon and Jerome Powell under Trump).

The Mercury minor period (2021-2024) could be a fairly difficult one, both for the Fed and for financial markets.  While Mercury (21 Scorpio) is a more benefic planet by nature, it is somewhat afflicted in the natal chart as it is almost exactly opposite Saturn (20 Taurus).  Mercury’s close conjunction with Venus mitigates some of the damage from Saturn, but I suspect it may not completely negate it.  Therefore, I would think the Rahu-Mercury period will see the Fed forced by circumstances to act swiftly to steady the economy while stocks are more likely to underperform.  To a large extent, this promise has already been fulfilled during the bear market in 2022.   However, the ongoing bearish influence of Rahu-Mercury throughout 2023 and into early 2024 is likely to further weigh on markets.

Looking at the current transits we can see that some of that recent optimism may be tested soon as transiting Mars will conjoin Saturn and oppose Mercury over the next few weeks.  With Jupiter fairly strong in Pisces in the 10th house with Chiron, however, it’s possible that markets may not fare too badly over that time.  Also, the lack of any clear transit affliction from Saturn (1 Aquarius) in February reduces the probability of a huge market sell-off.  While Mars is bearish, it is usually not as bearish as Saturn.

Of course, in terms of the overall market picture, the Fed horoscope is only one factor out of many.  Even if there are no strong Saturn influences in the Fed chart in February, Saturn is likely to manifest its effects elsewhere through several midpoint alignments.  As a result, sentiment may become more fragile in the coming weeks.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Biden's 2024 plans in doubt after classified documents scandal

(25 January 2023) Will US President Joe Biden run again in 2024?  Up until recently, it was widely assumed that the 80-year old commander-in-chief would seek a second term in next year’s election.  Despite weak approval numbers borne of overbearing governance and ongoing economic hardship, Biden was generally expected to be the Democrat nominee for president in 2024.

But the controversy following the discovery of several batches of classified documents in his private residence in Delaware has raised questions about his electability.  Even if this documents case may be seen as a minor case of bad judgment, what seems different this time around is that the mainstream media appear to be more critical of Biden’s actions. After enjoying a fairly easy ride from the left-leaning MSM in the past two years, the closer scrutiny on this issue raises the possibility that Biden may no longer be a lock on the nomination.  The classified documents scandal may well be a trial balloon in which the Democrats seek alternatives to Biden for the 2024 election.

Unfortunately for Biden, his horoscope will come under renewed pressure from Saturn in the coming months.  Readers will remember that for much of 2021 and 2022, Biden’s natal Mercury and Mars suffered under the full-strength square aspect from Saturn.  While the US succeeded in putting the pandemic behind it early in his administration, the ongoing Saturn affliction in Biden’s chart reflected the intractable political divisions in the country and the growing economic difficulties from surging inflation.

Now, Saturn (1 Aquarius) is forming yet another extended square aspect to no less than three key points in his chart — the Sun, Venus and the Ascendant.  The square aspect from Saturn will first exactly hit the Sun (4 Scorpio) on February 23, then hit Venus (5 Scorpio) on March 4, and then finally hit the Ascendant (10 Scorpio) on April 16 or so, assuming his time of birth is correct.  While these exact square aspects all lie in the near future, we should view Biden’s current problems in light of Saturn’s affliction since it is already well within effective range to these planets.  And the really bad news for Biden is that Saturn is due to station retrograde in June and will thus come back and almost exactly square those planets in the fall all over again.  In fact, those three points will not be free of the Saturn affliction until early 2024.

To make matters even worse, Biden started his Saturn major dasha period in September 2022.  As a rule, Saturn dasha periods tend to be more difficult than the preceding Jupiter dasha periods (2006-2022) and that is likely the case for Biden as he was both Vice-President and President while running the Jupiter major dasha period.  The likelihood of troubles and disappointment is even more likely for Biden since his Saturn (16 Taurus) is closely afflicted by the 8th house aspect of Mars (19 Scorpio) in his natal chart.  The wide oppositions from the Sun and Venus are somewhat helpful but do not negate the affliction from Mars, nor do they offset the natural malefic qualities of Saturn.   Interestingly, this document scandal emerged just as Mars (15 Taurus) stationed direct while conjunct his natal Saturn.

In terms of his re-election bid, we should pay special attention to the condition of the Sun, his 10th house ruler of status and career.  When that is afflicted by Saturn, Biden is more likely to suffer setbacks related to his status.  One possible date to keep in mind in that respect is the upcoming Sun-Saturn conjunction by transit at 3 Scorpio on February 16.  With Saturn just one degree from its exact square to the natal Sun, we could see increasingly pressure on Biden’s leadership.  It is even possible he could announce that may not seek the nomination for 2024, although that announcement could also occur later in the year as the Ascendant comes under the increasing affliction of Saturn.  April also looks especially vulnerable in this respect as Mars transits his equal 8th house cusp (obstacles, scandals) while Rahu conjoins his 6th house Moon symbolizing competitors. Even if Biden doesn’t pull out of the 2024 race at this time, other Democrats could declare their intention to contest the nomination.

Overall, 2023 is shaping up to be a very difficult year for President Biden.  With the heavy Saturn influence, it seems very possible that he will not seek a second term.

 

Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have been choppy in recent days as investors await the Fed decision on February 1.  For their part, a fresh spate of corporate earnings have been fairly mixed so far with companies often meeting or beating consensus estimates but warning on guidance.  As expected, we saw some upside to start the week as the Sun aligned with bullish Jupiter.

While further gains cannot be ruled out in the coming days, the approach of the Saturn-Neptune-Pluto alignment in February suggests rallies may become more vulnerable to reversal.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

US stocks fall as retail sales disappoint

(18 January 2023) US stocks fell sharply today on growing recession fears as the latest retail sales report showed a 1.1% decline in December.  Bond yields also tumbled today as PPI wholesale inflation for December came in below expectations at 6.2%.  Yields are now well their December lows with the 2-year at 4.06% and the benchmark 10-year at 3.37%.  Bond yields have been falling in recent months as more investors become convinced that the worst of inflation is behind us and that economic growth may be slowing.

So far, this week’s decline coincides with the bearish Mars-Mercury alignment that I noted in last week’s post.  Mars aspects to Mercury are usually bearish for the stock market since Mercury is the planet of commerce and trading.  As a malefic planet, Mars has the potential to upset or interrupt the significations of whatever planet it aspects.  The probability of a decline was even more likely this week since both Mars and Mercury were moving very slowly:  Mars stationed direct last Thursday and was still moving at just 15% of its normal speed today while Mercury stationed direct this morning (Jan 18) and thus was moving at less than 5% of its normal speed by the close today.  As a general rule, slower planets are stronger planets, especially when in close alignment.  And whenever planetary aspects include a malefic like Mars or Saturn, a negative outcome in the financial markets is much more likely.

But now that both Mars and Mercury have completed their retrograde cycles and are once again moving forward, could the markets be in a better position to rise?  Yes and no.  The forward motion of Mars and Mercury is a more bullish influence on sentiment, all other things being equal.  But this 210-degree Mars-Mercury aspect will remain in close proximity for several more days.  Therefore, Mercury will remain afflicted by the negative energy of Mars for the rest of this week at least.

Moreover, we can see that the angular separation of Mars and Rahu (28°20) will approximately equal that of Saturn and Neptune (28°56) for the next few days.  This is an ongoing bearish influence since all four planets have bearish potentials, especially Mars, Saturn and Rahu.  This four-planet alignment will remain within close range for longer than usual since Mars is only moving a few arc minutes per day.   Certainly, the presence of this bearish energy makes a major rebound much less likely in the near term and indeed makes further downside more likely.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo credit: Mike Mozart

Stocks rise in anticipation of cooler CPI report

(11 January 2023) While rising consumer prices remain a major concern for most of us, recent data suggests that inflation in the US and elsewhere may be easing. After hitting a high of 9% in the summer, inflation has trended lower ever since, with November's report showing a 7.1% increase.  Tomorrow's CPI report for December is also expected to extend the downtrend as consensus estimates are now 6.5% for this report.  Stocks have been rising this week in anticipation a lower print, possibly to a level well below expectations.

As it happens, tomorrow's report will closely coincide with the direct station of Mars, as the red planet completes its retrograde cycle that began on October 30.  Normally, direct planetary stations are bullish influences, although this favourability may be somewhat diminished since Mars is a natural malefic planet.  And we should also note that stocks have been bullish this week as bullish Jupiter (8 Pisces) has transited over the midpoint of Neptune (29 Aquarius) and Chiron (18 Pisces).  Other transits by faster-moving planets such as the Sun have highlighted this auspicious Jupiter influence as stocks have been in rebound mode since their Christmas low.

While I am uncertain exactly how tomorrow will unfold, I do think there is rising downside risk in the period following this Mars direct station.  The main problem is that Mercury (16 Sagittarius), the planet of trading and commerce, will be closely aspected by Mars (14 Taurus) over the next several days.  This is a full-strength, 8th house/210 degree aspect of Mars that is is likely to produce difficult outcomes related to Mercury's portfolio.  Since Mercury symbolizes everything from computers, transportation and commerce, we should be on the alert for setbacks and frustrations in these areas.  Today's massive airline computer outage in the US may be an early manifestation of this negative Mars-Mercury energy.  Rahu's 120-degree aspect to Mercury no doubt also played a part in today's airline chaos.

Of special note is that this aspect will last much longer than usual due to both planets relatively slow speeds.  Not only is Mars moving more slowly near the time of its direct station, but Mercury is also slower than normal as it approaches its own direct station on Wednesday, January 18.  While tomorrow's Mars-Mercury aspect will be quite close -- just two degrees -- the aspect will tighten further next week as Mercury stations at 14 Sagittarius.  Since the slower-moving Mars will still be transiting 14 Taurus, the aspect will be almost exact.

So even if we have a lower than expected inflation number tomorrow and the market rallies, it will soon become more vulnerable to declines as Mercury comes under the full aspect of Mars.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo credit: Stephano Tilli

Stalemate in DC: GOP fails to confirm McCarthy as Speaker

(4 January 2023)  Some surprising political drama is unfolding in Washington, DC this week as the US House of Representatives has yet to elect a Speaker.   Normally, this occurs on January 3rd when the winning party votes its Majority Leader to become Speaker and thereby becomes third in line to the presidency according to the US Constitution.  Although the Republicans won the most seats in the midterm elections, their party cannot settle on who should be the next Speaker of the House.

Kevin McCarthy is Majority Leader and was widely expected to win the largely procedural vote.   But the conservative wing in the GOP, the Freedom Caucus, has refused to join the rest of their fellow party members in supporting McCarthy, deeming him too moderate.  Thus far, McCarthy has lost all six ballots over the past two days and remains about 10 votes short of the necessary 218 to secure the Speaker’s chair.  Negotiations are ongoing to break the unprecedented stalemate with various compromises suggested such as veteran GOP Congressman Steve Scalise, or even a possible unity Speaker who would draw support from both parties.

Since we don’t know McCarthy’s birth time, any observations I might have are very much of the “back-of-the-envelope” variety which may well turn out to be wrong. Since we don’t know the time of the birth, we don’t know his Ascendant and hence none of the house placements or house rulerships of any of his planets.  And therefore we also don’t know his current major or minor dasha periods either, although it is likely the Saturn major dasha.

But we do know that his Scorpio Moon is his Chandra Lagna and it is currently receiving the helpful aspect from Jupiter in sidereal Pisces.  This is definitely a positive astrological asset for anyone to have when in consideration for a new job.  But the current state of uncertainty may be due to the Saturn (28 Capricorn) alignment with his natal Rahu (28 Taurus).  Close Saturn-Rahu aspects can coincide with situations where structures and traditions (Saturn) are called into question and authority is undermined (Rahu).

However, there are some favourable transits coming up for McCarthy over the weekend.  The Sun will conjoin his natal Venus (24 Sagittarius) on Sunday at the same time that Venus will conjoin his natal Sun (13 Capricorn).  These are both positive influences that suggest some kind of significant relief and perhaps even joy, although I wonder what other scenarios could emerge whereby McCarthy is happy given these Sun and Venus transits but he doesn’t become Speaker.  Well, DC politics is hard to figure at the best of times so perhaps even if some other GOP establishment candidate is found like Scalise, McCarthy could still exercise considerable influence over him.  And yet if McCarthy loses the Speaker’s chair it would represent a huge defeat for him.  I’m not sure the planets are sufficiently negative in the coming days for that kind of starkly negative outcome.  And if he can hold on until the weekend, then his chances would improve somewhat.

But if the Speaker is decided this week, then maybe McCarthy is more likely to lose. Scalise’s chart actually looks fairly good for early January, although it is also lacking a time of birth. Given the uncertainty in the birth data, I wouldn’t be surprised by any outcome in this stalemate.  But I would be less surprised if McCarthy is eventually named Speaker.

Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks have been mixed to start the New Year, although they closed higher today.  The gains were not unexpected given some of the positive transits such as the Venus-Jupiter alignment.

We can also spot some lesser bullish transits which could boost sentiment for a while longer here.  These are four-planet alignments based on angular separations involving benefics such as Jupiter.  So besides today’s Venus-Jupiter 90 degree alignment, there was also Mercury-Venus alignment (=11 degrees) which closely matched the current angular separation of Jupiter and Chiron (=10 degrees).  While these are not full-strength aspects, they nonetheless form a part of the overall planetary puzzle.

Further upside is also not impossible in the coming days since tomorrow’s Mercury-Pluto separation (= 9 degrees) will equal the Jupiter-Neptune separation.  The likelihood of further gains may also be seen in the fact that the Jupiter-Neptune separation (=9/10 degrees) will equal that of Jupiter-Chiron next week.  While this doesn’t guarantee further gains, it nonetheless could stave off the worst effects of the Saturn-Neptune alignment that is exact this coming Friday (Jan 6). This 9/10 degree separation will be replicated by other pairs of faster-moving planets next week, e.g. Monday’s Sun-Pluto pairing.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.