Wednesday, December 28, 2022

New Year's horoscope 2023

(28 December 2022) Out with the old, in with the new.  As we approach the start of 2023, it is good time to consider the astrological promise of the year ahead.  Although it does not have any specific astronomical importance, experience tells us the New Year’s chart cast for midnight, January 1 can accurately highlight themes that will be important for next 12 months.  For example, New Year’s charts which are largely free from affliction from malefic planets (Mars, Saturn, Rahu/Ketu) can signal years where the world as a whole seems more focused on positive growth and forward development.  However, sometimes the planets in New Year’s charts are marred by bad aspects from the likes of Mars and Saturn.  These afflicted Jan 1 charts can therefore become a warning of upcoming difficulties that are more likely to disrupt the global order.

Given last year’s Moon-Mars conjunction in sidereal Scorpio, for example, I suggested that “military conflict” could become a major concern.   Indeed, the war in Ukraine became a huge problem in 2022 both in terms of human suffering and in terms of economic consequences from surging inflation and widespread energy shortages.  While I was largely off the market in my call for further Covid-related problems, I was more correct is suggesting that the affliction of Mercury could translate into economic hardship.  Specifically, I thought that Mercury’s conjunction with Pluto and aspects with Rahu and Mars could indicate “higher inflation and higher interest rates” along with “slower growth and lower stock market returns in 2022”.  These predictions have largely come to pass as 2022 has brought a major stock market decline in most countries as inflation has forced central banks to hike rates to their highest levels in almost 40 years.

 

Sad to say, however, that Mercury is again involved in a difficult Saturn alignment for 2023. As the planet most closely associated with the economy, Mercury (29 Sagittarius) is retrograde and aligned with Saturn (28 Capricorn) and Neptune (28 Aquarius) on January 1.   As both Saturn and Neptune are unwelcome influences here for Mercury, it seems likely that the global economy will fall into recession during 2023.  Mercury-Saturn alignments are more specifically identified with slowdowns, but the addition of Neptune here makes the overall picture somewhat worse.  Of course, Neptune was front and center in the 2020 New Year’s chart that suggested some kind of epidemic was possible during that year.  Its further involvement in 2023 means that the pandemic could remain an ongoing concern in the New Year, either in terms of new variants or simply by virtue of its economic knock-on effects such as further supply-chain disruptions.  And we should note that Mercury is further afflicted by the 135-degree alignment with Mars (14 Taurus).  While not a full-strength Vedic aspect, the 135-degree alignment translates as a conjunction in the Vedic D-8 ashthamsa chart.  One possible interpretation would be economic setbacks (Mercury) due to war and conflict (Mars).

We can also see a close aspect between Rahu (North Lunar Node — 17 Aries) and the Sun (16 Sagittarius).   Since the Sun symbolizes rulers and government, the Rahu aspect can mean interruption or perhaps a deposing or replacement of a world leader.  The Rahu-Sun aspect is often bad news for governments as well and increases the chances of a change in leaders or at least a major change in policy.

One particularly interesting feature of the chart is the near-exact conjunction of Venus (3 Capricorn 33) with Pluto (3 Capricorn 35).  Venus is a benefic planet and symbolizes women, of course, but also art and anything of value, including money.  Pluto is a more malefic energy and represents power and coercion as well and the general concept of transformation.  One interpretation of the Venus-Pluto conjunction would be ‘female power’, as if there could be a further move towards woman holding positions of power in the world.  But an alternative perspective could be the ‘transformation of value’ such as we see through cryptocurrencies and the possible rise of digital currencies.  Given the recent turmoil in the crypto market, it may be more likely that the Venus-Pluto conjunction could represent the launch of the first major central bank digital currency, for better or worse.

Overall, the New Year’s chart for midnight January 1, 2023 is reason to be realistic about the next 12 months for most of us.  It seems likely there will be more troubles that we need to endure before we can come out the other end of the current difficult period.  While 2024 could well deliver more of the same, there is good reason to hope for better days in 2025.

Weekly Market Forecast

As expected, stocks have generally moved lower in this post-Christmas week.  The Santa Claus rally has yet to appear as 1) Mercury aligns with Mars and Venus and 2) Saturn approaches its alignment with Neptune.  Both of these alignments are bearish influences that have so far negated any bullish seasonality.

And with Mercury due to turn retrograde early tomorrow morning (EST), there seems to be little reason for this down trend to reverse higher in the coming days.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Mercury retrograde threatens Santa Claus rally

(21 December 2022) US stocks have rebounded this week as recession fears have receded and traders look forward to a possible year-end Santa Claus rally.  The Santa Claus rally describes the seasonal tendency for stocks to rise in the second half of December, and especially from the first trading day after Christmas until the second day of the New Year.   Buyers this week are therefore anticipating some follow through after Christmas which could carry on into early January.

But how likely is a Santa Claus rally this year?  Certainly, some upside this week was fairly likely given how oversold stocks had become after last week’s sell-off.  And the surge in the Japanese yen after the BOJ shift in its bond policy may also be seen as generally positive for stocks since it undermines the dollar.  The rally in the greenback has been one major reason why liquidity has dried up this year and stocks have trended lower.

And yet the planets do not very bullish next week.  Not only is the worrisome Saturn-Neptune alignment tightening further, but Mercury turns retrograde on Thursday, Dec 29 at 4.31 a.m. EST.  The condition of Mercury, the planet closely associated with matters of trade and commerce, can directly influence the stock market.  As we saw last week, the double affliction of Mercury by malefics Mars and Rahu (North Lunar Node) coincided exactly with a significant late week decline.  When Mercury is weakened or damaged in this way, stocks tend to fall.

The retrograde station of Mercury is another such negative condition that is broadly correlated with declines.  Of course, Mercury isn’t actually stopping and reversing in its orbit; it only appears that way in the sky from our vantage point on Earth.  Nonetheless, this apparent reversal of its motion is often coincident with problems and unexpected developments related to communication and transportation, in addition to temporarily worsening market conditions.

But we should note that not every Mercury retrograde station is equally bearish.  Some Mercury stations are relatively benign, and a few may even be bullish when Mercury aligns with a benefic planet like Jupiter.  But when Mercury aligns with a bearish planet at the time of its station, then the odds for a pullback significantly increase.

This particular Mercury retrograde station on Thursday is an interesting mix of influences.  On one hand, its near exact conjunction with Venus is very bullish and could help support some kind of rally.  But as it happens, Mercury is also aligned with bearish Mars through a 135-degree separation.  While this is not a traditional Vedic aspect, it nonetheless deserves our attention since all three of Mercury, Venus and Mars are conjunct in the 8th divisional chart or Ashtamsha (D-8).  It is tempting to think that the blend of both positive influences (Venus) and negative (Mars) on Mercury could produce a somewhat neutral outlook late next week.  And yet the presence of Mars in the equation increases the overall downside risk since Mars aligns and afflicts both Mercury and Venus.

Given this Mars influence, there is good reason to be skeptical about the prospects for a Santa Claus rally after Christmas.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Wednesday, December 14, 2022

The cost of money rises again as Fed hikes rates by another 50 basis points

US stocks fell today as Fed Chair Jerome Powell hiked rates by 50 basis points and reaffirmed his commitment to raise interest rates even higher in 2023 in order to curb inflation.  Even if investors had bid up stocks after Tuesday’s cooler-than-expected 7.1% CPI print, the Fed’s target for a higher terminal rate next year was seen as hawkish.  While stocks suffered a modest loss today, bond yields and the dollar held mostly steady.


As noted in last week’s post, bond yields look vulnerable to another round of increases, either as a result of strong economic growth or a more hawkish Fed dedicated to taking rates  above 5% next year.  The Saturn-Neptune alignment is pivotal in this respect as forms important alignments with the US Treasuries horoscope which makes higher bond yields more likely in the coming weeks.  In the current environment, higher yields are bad news for stocks as they point towards more expensive credit which will eventually weigh on economic activity.

Stocks are also vulnerable to declines with the approach of the Saturn-Neptune alignment in the coming weeks.  More immediately, there is a possibility of more selling in the wake of the Fed decision.  While the Saturn-Neptune alignment is only two degrees from exact, the extent of its current influence is unclear.  Usually, alignments between slow-moving planets need to be closer to exert a stronger influence on stocks.

Instead, we can look at a fairly bearish set up for the rest of this week as Mercury aligns with Mars and Rahu (North Lunar Node).  More specifically, we can say that Mercury will be aspected by both Mars and Rahu on Thursday and Friday.  Mars (19 Taurus) casts its full-strength 210-degree, 8th house aspect to Mercury (18 Sagittarius), the planet of commerce and trading. Mercury is also at the receiving end of another dose of potentially bearish energy as Rahu (18 Aries) casts its 120-degree aspect within one degree.  While Mars-Mercury aspects tend to be bearish, Rahu-Mercury aspects are a bit more mixed, although with some downside risk.  The fact that these two afflictions to Mercury occur almost simultaneously is a red flag.

But financial astrology demands we look at the whole picture in order to weigh the importance of all the relevant influences.  There is a potentially offsetting influence in play this week given the Sun-Venus/Jupiter-Chiron alignment.  This alignment should be seen having second tier strength, however, since there are no direct aspects involved.  Instead, the alignment is formed through angular separation.

Thus, the angular separation of the Sun and Venus (=13°16) is almost equal to the angular separation of Jupiter and Chiron (=12°22).  Both of these planetary pairs are somewhat bullish and their resonance through equal angular separation suggests some optimism.  However, we should note that the faster-moving Sun-Venus pair (13°) has already moved beyond the 12° Jupiter-Chiron separation.  In fact, the angular separation of these two pairs almost matched exactly earlier in the week when stocks were bullish.  The fact that they are separating now suggests optimism could be diminishing just as the pessimism and anxiety of the Mercury-Mars-Rahu alignment is increasing.  Thursday morning’s Mars-Moon square also looks negative.

Right now, I would be fairly skeptical about the prospects for a year-end Santa Claus rally.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.