Ukraine crisis escalates after sabotage of Nord Stream pipeline

 (28 September 2022) The Ukraine crisis has taken a dangerous, new turn this week after the apparent sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines that carries Russian gas to Europe.  At this point, is it unclear who is responsible for the damage to the underwater pipeline which prompted more early week selling in the stock market and another swift rise in energy prices. The pipeline attack follows an eventful week in which Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization of 300,000 additional soldiers to bolster his flagging war efforts in the Ukraine, while referendums were held in the disputed provinces in eastern Ukraine which would facilitate a formal union with Russia. 

While most Western media seems convinced that Putin is in trouble following the recent retreat from Kharkiv, the astrological picture suggests otherwise.  If the Ukraine horoscope is correct (Aug 24 1991, 5.31 pm, Kyiv), the planets look difficult for Ukraine in the weeks ahead.  The transit of the Sun and Venus through Leo in September has generally been favourable to Ukraine's war effort.  This is not unexpected since Leo is in the 9th house of good fortune along with Jupiter, Mercury, Venus and the Sun.  It was a excellent transit set up for promising outcomes.  In addition, Mercury stationed retrograde on Sep 9 at 14 Virgo -- exactly conjunct the equal 10th house cusp and thus aligned with the natal Ascendant.  This was even more likely to coincide with positive events related to government since Mercury is strong in its own sign of Virgo. 

But those faster-moving transits have since passed out of the picture and the fighting continues across a wide front with little new movement.  As I see it, the bigger problems for Ukraine's efforts is that Saturn will station direct on Oct 23 at 24 Capricorn in an exact square with Pluto (24 Cancer).  This Saturn-Pluto alignment is symbolic of intense and brutal power struggles often entail damage and hardship,particularly when they occur when one of the planets is stationary. 

In addition, Ketu (South Lunar Node) is conjunct the Midheaven (unequal 10th house cusp) throughout the month of October.  This increases the risk of sudden events that could force government (10th house) to react quickly and perhaps irrationally. 

More immediately, Mercury is due to station direct at 0 Virgo on Oct 2 -- just one degree from a conjunction with natal Mars.  This combination suggests frustration and anger, especially related to leaders, and the station tends to have a more negative connotation. Therefore, we could see some important developments in the first days of October that ratchet up the tension even further.  While this Mercury-Mars conjunction isn't always a "bad" influence, it does tend to reflect difficult situations which may or may not have favourable outcomes.  

The bigger problem is that Mars is due to station retrograde on Oct 30 at 1 Gemini while in a close square aspect with natal Mars at 1 Virgo.  This is invariably a negative influence in matters related to government and leaders, perhaps directly concerned with the military.  There are rumours now that the additional Russian reserves could well be moved to the front lines at that time and that these reinforcements could pose a threat to existing Ukrainian positions.   More ominously, the Mars station at 1 Gemini will almost exactly conjoin the natal Mars in the USA horoscope at 0 degrees of sidereal Gemini.  This is an indication that the US could get more directly involved as the conflict escalates further.  All scenarios are on the table here given the volatile and violent Mars-Uranus conjunction in the Biden 2021 inauguration horoscope.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks rebounded today after falling further on Monday and Tuesday.  The blue chip indexes slipped a bit below their June lows before recovering sharply today after the Bank of England abruptly restarted its QE bond buying program in response to the controversial Truss-Kwarteng Budget. Markets took it as a sign that other central banks may follow suit soon enough as economic and military storm clouds are gathering.  Despite the recent spate of interest rate hikes, it seems increasingly likely that the ECB will also be forced to ease its monetary policy if the economic outlook deteriorates.  Eventually, even the Fed could also be forced to pivot as higher rates will make large numbers of the home owners insolvent amid falling house prices.

Today's gain could be seen in terms of both less negative influence and more positive influence.  The Mars-Saturn-Uranus alignment was near exact early this week just as stocks slumped towards their June lows.  By Wednesday, however, Mars had moved a bit past its alignment with Saturn and thus could signal a diminution of bearish influence.  At the same time, Jupiter (9 Pisces) is nicely placed in an approaching Grand Trine alignment (i.e. each factor separated by 120 degrees) with the natal Moon (7 Cancer) and the natal Jupiter-Neptune conjunction at 9-10 Scorpio.  Since Jupiter is moving quite slowly, I would not be surprised if this positive influence lasted a bit longer. 

And yet with retrograde Saturn (24 Cap) parked in a conjunction with the natal Sun (25 Cap) within just one degree, it's hard to get too bullish about the Nasdaq and about stocks in general in the near term.  

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks fall as Fed hikes rates another 75 points

(21 September 2022) The Federal Reserve surprised no one today by hiking interest rates another 75 basis points in its ongoing efforts to curb inflation.  The Fed's overnight lending rate now stands at 3.25% with a strong likelihood of rising to 4% at its next meeting in early November.  With inflation remaining stubbornly high, the Fed has little choice but to maintain its aggressive stance as markets are now expecting the tightening cycle to stay in place into 2023. 

In his remarks today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed will continue to raise rates as long as necessary to bring inflation back down to its 2% target.   All this hawkish talk was bad news for risk assets as stocks reversed course this afternoon and ended the day sharply lower.  Higher rates are typically anathema to investors as borrowing costs rise and choke off economic growth.  Powell also cautioned that house prices are likely to fall further while unemployment is almost certain to rise as the speculative froth comes out of the economy.

This week's decline appears to reflect the current afflictions the horoscope of the Federal Reserve.  Last month, I noted that the Fed's chart looked significantly afflicted for September and October.  Given the close correlation between the Fed's actions and the stock market, afflictions to the Fed chart tend to signal periods of weakness in stocks.   While the Fed generally wants stocks to rise in order to generate the "wealth effect" and boost the economy, their first priority is keeping inflation in check, even if that means sacrificing the stock market.

The afflictions of the conjunction of Saturn with the equal 8th house cusp and the conjunction of Ketu with the Moon appear to be in full force here.   The 8th house is traditionally considered the most malefic house so the Saturn conjunction is one of the worst influences imaginable.  The Saturn-8th house conjunction is likely made worse since Saturn is slowing down ahead of its direct station in late October.  In addition, since Saturn is now forming a very close square alignment with Uranus, both planets are resonating with the Fed's natal Ascendant at 25 Gemini.  This planetary alignment can almost be considered a "perfect storm" that is hitting the Fed.    Moreover, the Ketu-Moon conjunction intensifies these effects and may make the Fed's actions less popular to the point of being incomprehensible to the public.  The Moon symbolizes the public at large.

Interestingly, today's rate hike and subsequent stock sell-off comes just as Mars was conjunct natal Saturn and opposite Mercury and just a few degrees away from the 12th house cusp representing loss.   The involvement of malefic Mars here only serves to amplify the ongoing effects of Saturn and Uranus.   Both the Fed and financial markets may therefore remain under pressure in the coming days as Mars approaches the 12th cusp at 25 degrees of sidereal Taurus.  

Even though Ketu is starting to move away from its difficult conjunction with the Moon, the outlook is challenging in the short term since the Saturn-Uranus square will remain essentially stuck in that difficult place in the Fed horoscope until October.
 
For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.


Photo credit:  Kurtis Garbutt

Stocks plunge on rising US inflation

(14 September 2022) Stocks have fallen sharply this week as Tuesday's CPI number for August came in higher than expected.  The S&P 500 fell 4% while the Nasdaq lost 5% as the annual inflation rate rose to 8.3% and the closely watched Core inflation rate also rose to 6.3%.  Today's wholesale PPI rate didn't provide much relief as the Core rate rose to 7.3% in August even if the headline PPI slipped a bit to 8.7% from 8.8%. 

Investors had been hoping for evidence that inflation was starting to come down, thereby giving the Fed room to pause its rate hike cycle.  Instead, this latest data will likely force the Fed to continue to hike aggressively in the months ahead, as the Fed Watch tool how sees a 76% probability of a 75-basis point hike at next week's FOMC meeting.

This week's stock market decline is not surprising.  There were several factors in play this week that pointed towards some downside.  First, Mercury turned retrograde last Friday, Sep 9.  Mercury retrograde has a well-deserved bearish reputation, even if it has a significant error rate.  Indeed, Monday's gain appeared to negate the effect of Mercury's backward motion, if only for a day.  The retrograde cycle is more than just a single day, however, and highlights a period of about three weeks when markets are more vulnerable to declines and unexpected reversals.

Second, Mars is afflicting Venus this week by 90-degree square aspect.  While the aspect is closest on Friday, Sep 16, the Mars-Venus square is within range all week and increased the probability of some negative market outcomes. 

Third, Saturn (25 Capricorn) is quickly approaching its square alignment with Uranus (24 Aries).  This still has a few weeks to go before its closest alignment but it is well within range to have some negative effects on sentiment.  As a rule, all hard aspects involving Saturn are bearish, especially those involving slow moving planets such as Uranus.

If we take a look at the horoscope of the NASDAQ (Feb 8, 1971), we can see that there were other afflictions this week.  Transiting Saturn is almost exactly conjunct with the natal Sun at 25 Capricorn. This is a terrible influence which is strongly associated with negative outcomes.  We should note, however, that due to the slow speed of Saturn, the conjunction with the Sun is within an effective range for several weeks.   Nonetheless, Tuesday's 5% decline did occur when Saturn was just 7 minutes of arc past its exactly conjunction with the natal Sun  It was exact on Sunday, Sep 11.  Saturn will continue to back up to 24 Capricorn during the final weeks of its current retrograde cycle when it will station direct in late October.  Even then, it will remain be a potentially negative influence on the Sun and thus, the NASDAQ as a whole. 

And we can see that the Mars-Venus square aligned with the natal Mars (17 Scorpio) in the NASDAQ chart.  This is another high probability bearish alignment since aspects of Mars to its natal position tend to be bearish, especially the square, opposition and conjunction.  Mars is a day or two past an exact opposition with natal Mars but Venus is still a day short of an exact square.  Together, their influences may have averaged out and coincided with a sharp decline on Tuesday.

Looking ahead, it is very possible we could see further downside later this week as the Mars-Venus square will tighten on Thursday and Friday. 

It seems likely that we will see some positive effects from Jupiter's aspect with the natal Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (9-10 Scorpio) sometime over the next week or two.  And yet with the Saturn-Uranus square firmly anchored to the Sun in this chart, a strong rebound in October looks quite unlikely. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks rally as oil tumbles on China slowdown worries

(7 September 2022) Following their August decline, stocks have traded mostly higher so far this week following the Labor Day holiday in the US.  Markets rebounded on Wednesday as plunging oil prices took the pressure off bond yields as borrowing costs fell.  The stock market needs lower yields if it is to have any hope of mounting a sustained recovery, a difficult task to be sure in this inflationary environment. 

Of course, lower yields aren't always good news, especially if they are falling because markets are worried about a recession.  That could well be the case here as slowing data out of China due to Covid lockdowns are forcing traders to re-evaluate their economic projections.  As long as China's zero-Covid policy continues to randomly lockdown major cities for the foreseeable future, it will become harder for the world to avoid recession. 

But it is unclear how long the rebound in stocks can last since Mercury is due to turn retrograde just before midnight Friday, September 9.  Mercury retrograde has a deserved reputation as a bearish influence on the collective sentiment that drives the ups and downs of the stock market.  As the planet that governs trading and commerce, Mercury's condition in the sky is one of the key determinants to stock market movements.  When Mercury is well-placed by sign and aspect, markets are likely to rise, at least for the short term.  But if Mercury is associated with malefic planets like Saturn or is retrograde, it becomes that much harder for markets to rise, especially around the 2-4 day window around its retrograde and direct stations when it is reversing its direction. 

Of course, it is important to keep the influence Mercury retrograde in perspective.  While it is an important influence, there are other planets placements can also sometimes limit or offset its affliction.  And not all Mercury retrograde stations are created equal.  If Mercury is in hard aspect with malefics, then its retrograde and direct stations are likely to be very bearish indeed.  But if Mercury turns retrograde while in alignment with, say, Jupiter, then positive outcomes become more likely. 

The Mercury retrograde station this Saturday looks fairly benign as these things go.  First off, the fact that it stations over the weekend while markets are closed means its negative impact will be mitigated.  We could see some bearish fallout to end the week, but this does not look overly strong.  Monday will therefore be the first trading day with Mercury retrograde and the aspects that day actually don't look that bad.  And its close opposition with Jupiter is somewhat bullish. 

While some bearishness must be assumed by virtue of Mercury's apparent backward motion, there are no other strongly bearish influences upon Mercury to start the week.  Other planets are more bearish, however, such as the Sun-Saturn alignment and the Mars-Uranus alignment.  Moreover, the Mars square aspect to Venus is another bearish influence to be reckoned with, although it will be still three degrees from exact on Monday.  Overall, the start of next week is more likely to bring some downside even if retrograde Mercury is only part of the reason for it. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.