Europe's energy crisis deepens as Russia halts gas flow

(31 August 2022) The crisis in Europe only seems to go from bad to worse.  Russia's invasion of Ukraine initiated a cascade of events that has resulted in an unprecedented energy crisis in Europe.  The February invasion prompted Western countries to impose strict sanctions on Russia, including the banning of Russian oil and gas upon which Europe was almost wholly dependent.  The sanctions have led to severe shortages and sky-high prices as governments have enforced austere restrictions on its populations.  This week Russia upped the stakes again as it halted all flows of gas through its Nord Stream 1 pipeline, ostensibly for pipeline maintenance.  However, it is unclear if Russia will resume the gas flows on Saturday, September 3 as scheduled.  

The shortages have led to crippling five- to ten-fold price increases for both business and consumers and threaten the proper functioning of the European economy.  And with winter not far off, some governments are worried that there won't be enough energy to heat homes and keep plants running.  Whatever the military and geopolitical implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this energy crisis has the potential to completely devastate Europe's economy.  Will Europe be able to avoid a cold, bleak winter?

The horoscope of the European Union (Nov 1, 1993) offers some insight on this question.   We can see the multiple afflictions to the EU chart at the time of the invasion in February.  Not surprisingly, malefics Saturn and the Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu are very prominent in the chart at that time.  From its placement in the 7th house, Saturn 24 (Capricorn) was approaching its Saturn return and was within one degree of opposing the Ascendant (23 Cancer), which underlined the oppressive and unwanted nature of the invasion.  Since the 7th house symbolizes partners (both business and marital), Saturn's transit to the 7th house cusp represented a major setback with Russia, Europe's energy exporter and partner. 

The nodal transit to the complex alignment of Mars-Pluto-Moon reflected the sudden and explosive nature of the invasion.  Typically, transits of Rahu and Ketu to Mars are synonymous with violent or unsettled situations, and even more so when they simultaneously align with the Moon (population, emotions) and Pluto (power, coercion).   The fact that these transits occur with important chart points is a very big reason why Europe suddenly fell into its worst crisis since World War Two.

It is also worth noting that the EU horoscope was running the very difficult Rahu-Saturn dasha at the time.  Dasha lord Rahu is conjunct Mars and Pluto thus reflecting the greater likelihood of intense, coercive situations while Saturn is in a very close 90-degree alignment with Mars, Pluto and the Moon.  Saturn's minor dasha period therefore was more likely to feature hardship and war due to its nasty alignment with those three tense planets.

The transits for this week's pipeline shutdown also show significant affliction.  After stationing retrograde in June at 1 Aquarius, Saturn is now on its way back to exactly opposing the Ascendant, just two degrees from its position in February at 24 Capricorn.   Saturn (26 Capricorn) exactly squares Mercury (26 Libra) in the 4th house and reflects the current economic disruption in Europe.  The transit path of Saturn here was especially destructive.  After opposing the Ascendant at the time of invasion, it stationed exactly square the Mars-Pluto-Moon alignment in June in the first degree of Aquarius.  It doesn't get much worse than that.   While it is certainly possible that Russia may not fully resume gas supplies to Europe after this scheduled halt expires on Sep 3, the short term aspects (esp. involving Mars) don't look bad enough for that kind of nightmare scenario.   Perhaps supplies will be reinstated but with the ongoing threat of being cut again. 

The larger problem is that Saturn is due to station direct at 24 Capricorn in late October.   The Uranus and Rahu conjunction at the top of the chart also form hard aspects to the Ascendant and are no doubt also part of this scenario of difficulty.  With Saturn and Uranus due to form a close square in October, it seems quite likely that the situation in Europe will remain precarious for several more weeks, and it could well get worse on this difficult square aspect.  We could finally see some improvement by November after Saturn resumes its normal forward motion, however, as it moves away from its alignment with the EU Ascendant.  . 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks are drifting lower this week as the market realizes the Fed is unlikely to reverse its rate hikes this year.  While the outlook doesn't look very encouraging in the near term, we should not be surprised if this week's Mercury-Jupiter alignment coincides with a rally attempt at some point.  While it seems unlikely to alter the down trend, it could bring some upside in the coming days.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Markets await Powell's Jackson Hole speech

(24 August 2022) Stocks look more vulnerable here in the waning dog days of summer as inflation remains a primary concern, especially in Europe.   Much of the summer rally had been predicated on the assumption that inflation may have peaked in the US and that this could pave the way to a more dovish Fed that would be less hawkish in its commitment to interest rate hikes.  While US inflation has eased off somewhat, European inflation continues to rise as energy prices have reached a crisis level given the ongoing disruption from the Ukraine-Russia war.

But all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday as he delivers his annual speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  Powell is expected to reveal his current plan to tackle inflation and whether or not the Fed will to slow the pace of rate hikes starting with its next FOMC meeting on September 21.   Being creatures of liquidity, investors will be hoping for any dovish signals from Powell, perhaps as a response to some recent data that suggest the economy may be slowing.  If, however, Powell reiterates his commitment to reducing inflation to the Fed's long term target of 2%, the market could sell-off on the prospect of significantly higher interest rates down the road.

A look at the horoscope of the Federal Reserve reflects the potential precariousness of the current economic situation.  Typically, the economy tends to do well this chart is strengthened by Jupiter and other benefics as it reflects a Fed that is successfully managing an economic expansion.  When the chart is afflicted by Saturn or other malefics, however, that can mean a more stressful time for the Fed and greater economic uncertainty.

The main problem here is that Saturn (27 Capricorn) conjoins the 8th house cusp (25 Capricorn) representing obstacles, setbacks and scandals.  Saturn is usually a difficult energy whenever it closely aligns with a planet or cusp and that is very much the case here since the 8th house is considered the most malefic house in the chart.  Saturn is currently retrograde and is due to station direct on October 23 at 24 degrees of sidereal Capricorn.  This will be just one degree past an exact conjunction with the 8th house cusp and a 150-degree alignment with the Ascendant.  Regardless of the immediate aftermath of the Jackson Hole speech, it does suggest the Fed is entering a period of higher stress for the next two months or so while the Saturn alignment is in range. 

The outlook isn't entirely negative, however, as retrograde Jupiter will be approaching a conjunction with the 10th house cusp (MC) in October and November.  This is a very positive influence and suggests the Fed will eventually assume a more positive leadership role where it could be praised for its actions.  While the Jupiter influence is very strong here, it does not override the likely damage from Saturn.  No doubt, the Fed will encounter both positive and negative situations as a result of these dueling influences.  I do suspect that Saturn's negative influence is more likely to manifest first since Saturn will resume normal forward motion first, while Jupiter will resume its forward motion on November 23. 

 

In terms of the immediate reaction to Friday's Jackson Hole speech, the Mars-Sun square looks quite tense and suggests an atmosphere of caution is more likely to prevail.  Along with the Moon-Mars conjunction, this alignment increases the likelihood of a negative market reaction to Powell's speech.   Also, we should note the presence of benefics Mercury and Venus in the chart on Friday.  Although usually positive, Mercury is placed at the very bottom of the chart opposite the 10th house and hints at "unfortunate communication" while the Venus opposition to Saturn signifies restraint and loss.  It therefore seems less likely that Powell will suddenly turn dovish and pause the rate hikes.  We shall see how it all unfolds.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Recession risk increasing as Fed maintains tighter monetary policy

(17 August 2022) As the rising cost of living forces consumers to cut back on spending, it seems the risk of recession is increasing.  The economic outlook remains very uncertain despite encouraging signs that inflation may be moderating while employment continues to grow, albeit largely from part-time jobs.  Nonetheless, recent data is very much a mixed bag.  This week's housing report came in below expectations and July's ISM manufacturing data extended its downward slide, even if it not quite showing a contraction.   Perhaps more worrying is that China's stubborn adherence to a zero Covid policy is wreaking havoc on the world's second largest economy as this week's data was weaker than expected. 

As we know, Saturn is the planet that is most closely associated with recession.  As the planet that symbolizes caution, pessimism and loss, Saturn is usually prominent by aspect and sign placement during times when the economy is slowing.  During the initial Covid outbreak and subsequent lockdowns in early 2020, Saturn was doubly prominent since it entered the sign of sidereal Capricorn and conjoined Pluto.  At the time of the financial meltdown in 2008, Saturn formed a very rare, simultaneous alignment with Uranus, Chiron and Neptune.

Therefore, if there is going to be a recession, we should also see some similar Saturn influences in the transit chart.   In previous posts, I have documented how this year's slowdown was correlated with the Saturn-Neptune-Rahu-Jupiter alignment that was within range between April and July.  While that alignment has now separated and exerts a diminishing influence, we can see that Saturn is due to form an alignment with Uranus in October.  The Saturn-Uranus square will be closest at the time of the Saturn direct station on October 23.  While this single aspect may not not sufficient to signal a recession, it nonetheless increases the likelihood of further slowing, if not an outright recession by that date. 

Another intriguing perspective on the US economy can be found in the inauguration horoscope of the current president.  The inauguration chart represents the "re-birth" of the country every four years and thus generates a map of its changing planetary fortunes, both for the president and the nation as a whole.   What stands out here is that the this fall's Saturn-Uranus square will almost exactly align with the natal Mercury (24 Capricorn) in the inauguration chart.  This is very difficult alignment that greatly increases the likelihood of problems and setbacks for the US during October. 

While the Saturn-Uranus square is in itself a negative influence for the economy and the stock market, its impact on natal Mercury could further undermine economic activity since Mercury symbolizes commerce, transportation and communication.  Since all three areas are directly connected with the economy, any specific damage to one of them would have a detrimental effect on GDP. 

Mercury's symbolism is not limited to the economy, however, as this affliction could also coincide with tension and conflict associated with the midterm elections slated for early November.  At its most general level, Mercury represents rational thought processes such as counting and calculation, so its affliction by Saturn and Uranus could translate into unusually divisive troubles related to the often contested terrain of US politics.

Besides this Saturn-Uranus aspect, Saturn will also form some difficult aspects in the inauguration chart in the spring of 2023.  First, Saturn (5 Aquarius) will align with Pluto (5 Capricorn) in the winter of 2023, although this alignment may only have a limited recessionary impact since it will be relatively short-lived. 

The more worrisome aspect occurs from May to July when Saturn stations retrograde in the 11th house of income at 13 Aquarius and thereby casts its full-strength 3rd house/60 degree aspect on the dangerous Mars-Uranus conjunction in the 1st house at 12 Aries.   While Mars does have any direct connection with the economy, it is associated with military action.  The Saturn influence here upon Mars-Uranus suggests increased risk of major economic losses from military conflict.  And with Pluto also conjoining the natal Sun at that time, there is an additional layer of affliction here that could bring an unstable geopolitical situation that further undermines economic confidence. 

All in all, these different Saturn influences over the next year or so greatly increase the risk of a recession in the US.  Even if the Fed ultimately succeeds in taming inflation, unemployment is likely to rise significantly by next year while the stock market should trend lower. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Trump's Mar-a-Lago raided by FBI

(10 August 2022) The US political landscape has been turned upside down following the FBI's raid on former President Trump's residence at Mar-a-Lago.  The unprecedented raid on the private home of a former president has created a firestorm of reaction comprised of equal parts indignant outrage and gleeful cheerleading as pundits scramble to determine its ultimate political impact. 

It's still early but it seems to have galvanized the GOP behind Trump even more than before.  Even though Florida Governor Ron DeSantis remains his leading rival to be the nominee in 2024, Republicans appear to be circling the wagons around Trump.  Of course, all this is subject to change depending on what the DOJ chooses to share regarding the legal justification for the search and what evidence was actually found. 

Not surprisingly, Trump's horoscope is suffering from several major afflictions these days.  Trump felt the impact of Monday's Mars-Saturn square as it came to within just 3 degrees of his Midheaven (MC), or unequal 10th house cusp.  The 10th house represents status and career so this double dose of malefic energy was very likely to coincide with some kind of setback.  While the 10.54 a.m. birth time is from birth records and considered accurate, it is not unreasonable to think that it could be a few minutes earlier which would make the Saturn-Mars alignment that much closer. 

The other transit that stands out is the Venus-Pluto opposition that activates his 12th house Venus.  The 12th house represents loss, isolation and confinement so this affliction highlighted this unfortunate natal placement.  The 12th house Venus conjunct Saturn is one of the classic astrological signatures for divorce and Trump is twice-divorced.  Venus is usually a benefic planet but it's placement in the 12th with Saturn makes it more vulnerable to unwanted outcomes when it is transited by negative planets. 

Venus not only pertains to marriage, but also to career since it rules the sign of Taurus which is in his 10th house.  The key point to note here is that the Venus-Venus conjunction isn't the problem; rather it is the Pluto opposition that is activated by the faster-moving Venus.  With Pluto symbolizing power and coercion, especially of a Machiavellian nature, we see Trump here on the receiving end of the Democrats' political wishes, as executed by the the DOJ and the FBI.  

The other difficult influence here is that transiting Saturn (28 Capricorn) is now under the 5th house/120 degree aspect of natal Rahu (27 Taurus). Since Rahu is tightly conjunct the Sun in Trump's natal chart, this Saturn transit is more likely to undermine Trump's authority, sense of leadership and personal vitality.   And we shouldn't forget that Trump's Sun continues to be afflicted by the square aspect with Neptune as it has for the past year or so.  This Neptune influence has further damaged his fortunes since it has a dissolving influence upon the Sun. 

Looking ahead, I think Trump will remain in the defensive for a while yet.  As I've written previously, his chart is significantly weakened by the dual afflictions of two aspects involving slow-moving outer planets: Neptune-90-Sun and Pluto-180-Venus.  Both will remain within range for the rest of 2022 and even into early 2023.  After it completes its current retrograde cycle in October, Saturn will again come under the negative influence of natal Rahu in December 2022 and January 2023.  This will be a particularly difficult time for him when the threat to his reputation and career could be at its greatest. 

Democrats are hoping to indict him on criminal charges in order to make him ineligible to run in the 2024 election.  While his chart is certainly bad enough that I wouldn't rule anything out for these next six months,  I still think Trump is likely to run in 2024 and stands a very good chance of winning.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks rallied today as the latest CPI report showed prices rose at a slightly slower pace of 8.5% in July suggesting that inflation may have peaked.  The rally follows some early week weakness that coincided closely with the tense Mars-Saturn square.  As it often the case, stocks tend to do better once an alignment involving malefic planets (e.g. Mars, Saturn)  begins to separate. 

I would not be surprised to see some kind of pullback over the next few days given Thursday night's Full Moon.  Full Moons have a slight bearish bias in any event, but this one is more likely to signal caution since it will form a conjunction with Saturn within just a few degrees.  The Sun-Saturn opposition is due to be exact on Sunday-Monday, so there is some additional downside risk heading into next week.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks choppy ahead of Friday's US jobs report

(3 August 2022) Stocks have been choppy to start the month of August as strong corporate earnings have mostly offset recession fears amid weakening macro data.   As expected, stocks fell in the early week as Mars conjoined Uranus and Rahu (North Lunar Node) -- and thereby activated the underlying Saturn-Neptune-Uranus-Chiron alignment -- although the decline was fairly modest despite geopolitical jitters from Speaker Pelosi's trip to Taiwan.  Wednesday's rebound was also not too surprising as the Moon aligned with Venus and Mars.  While US stocks are still very much in rebound mode following the June low, it remains to be seen if this year's down trend is truly over. 

One explanation for the relative strength in the market in recent weeks can be understood in terms of the navamsa, or 9th harmonic chart.  This chart is commonly used in Vedic astrology to provide an additional perspective on the relative planetary strengths above and beyond what a normal transit analysis would provide. 

It should be noted that Western astrology also uses the 9th harmonic, although it does not grant it the analytical primacy that Vedic astrology does.  The basic premise of the navamsa chart is that planets have a special resonance when their natal rasi positions are multiplied by 9.  In this way, the navamsa chart highlights the importance of the 40-degree novile aspect which is a key divisor of the 360 degree circle. 

The recent Jupiter retrograde station on July 28 is a good example of the mechanism behind the 9th harmonic navamsa chart.  Jupiter retrograde stations tend to be bullish in any event since the velocity of Jupiter is slowing both before and after the station.  One of the fundamental axioms of financial astrology is that slow moving planets have a greater capacity for good or ill depending on their nature.  As Jupiter slows around its stations, markets are more likely to rise. 

But with this particular station, we can see that Jupiter (14 Pisces) formed a near-exact 40-degree novile aspect with Uranus (24 Aries).  Since Jupiter-Uranus aspects are invariably bullish, this influence increased both the probability and the strength of the positive market outcomes towards the end of July.  Expressed in terms of the navamsa/9th harmonic chart, however, Jupiter and Uranus were conjunct. 

As we can see in today's navamsa chart, this 9th harmonic Jupiter-Uranus conjunction is still within just one degree at 11-12 Scorpio.  Today's bullish outcome was made more likely because this Jupiter-Uranus alignment was opposite Mercury, another bullish influence.  And with Venus in a favourable 120-degree alignment with Pluto and moving past the potentially bearish influence of the Mars aspect, there were a clear majority of bullish influences in this chart.

Looking ahead to Friday's US jobs report, we can see the 9th harmonic/navamsa chart looks more afflicted.  The Jupiter-Uranus conjunction will still be close at hand although now two degrees away, but the real problem is that Saturn will square both Mercury and Venus within a few degrees each.  This increases the downside risk for the end of the week and suggests a negative reaction to the jobs report. 

In this way, the navamsa/9th harmonic can provide useful additional information to the main rasi transit chart which can help tip the interpretive balance one way or the other. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.