The Fed goes all in on tightening to fight inflation

(26 January 2022) Things are starting to get real.   At today's FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell removed all doubt about the prospects for monetary tightening as the Fed Chair acknowledged that rate hikes would likely begin in March, with balance sheet unwinding beginning soon afterwards in an attempt to combat surging inflation.  Markets sold off on the realization that the Fed could no longer be relied upon to prop up stock prices through its accommodative policies.  With the Biden White House intent on taming inflation before the November midterms, this may not an ideal time for bulls to expect a bailout from the perennial "Fed put".

Stocks reversed lower today after rallying into the Fed statement following Monday's shock low at 4222 on the S&P 500.  Markets have continued to sink lower over the past week as a number of planetary afflictions have largely played out as expected.  For example, the Sun and Mercury remain trapped in a papa katari scissors yoga between malefics Saturn and Pluto (since Jan 16) while Venus and Mercury have been weakened by virtue of their rare simultaneous retrograde motion since Jan 14.

We can also see how the current situation is unfolding in the NASDAQ horoscope (Feb 8, 1971).  There are several obvious difficult transits at the moment.  Transiting Saturn (20 Capricorn) is approaching its conjunction with natal Sun (25 Capricorn), while falling under the square aspect of natal Saturn (22 Aries).  Transiting Sun (14 Capricorn) is rapidly approaching a conjunction with Saturn which is exact next week on Friday, February 4. 

Transiting Rahu (5 Taurus) forms a close 120-degree aspect to natal Mercury (7 Capricorn), just as transiting Mercury (3 Capricorn) is also in close proximity.  Today's dramatic reversal occurred just as Mercury (5 Capricorn) was exactly in aspect with Rahu, the planet of disruption. 

In terms of bullish influences, we naturally look to Jupiter, now at 11 Aquarius.   While it is well-placed in the 11th house of gains, it is past the house cusp (8 Aquarius) and should be seen as losing strength.  It was arguably at its strongest while exactly conjunct the 11th house cusp back on January 11 when the S&P closed at 4713.  Today it closed at 4349. 

Looking ahead to Friday and beyond, we can see that  Mercury is due to conjoin malefic Pluto (2 Capricorn).  This is bearish in itself, but it is likely made more bearish because of an exact 45-degree alignment with natal Mars (17 Scorpio).  This elevates the risk of further downside later this week.  In addition, we can see that transiting Mars (9 Sagittarius) will be exactly conjunct natal Venus and therefore also exact the 9th house cusp (and in close alignment with the Ascendant).  Mars-Venus conjunctions tend to be bearish, as are Mars cuspal alignments.  The late week is therefore not looking good at all.

Next week could also see further volatility.  On one hand, some lessening of the bearish sentiment is possible since Venus will end its retrograde cycle and station direct on Saturday, Jan 29.  This could be a signal for eventual improvement.  Also, Mercury will exit the harmful scissors yoga between Saturn and Pluto on Saturday as well.  However, the Sun is due to conjoin Saturn throughout the week and could coincide with an additional bout of pessimism.   As usual, there is a mix of influences that defy a simple assessment which force us to weigh probabilities.  As Voltaire said, "doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one." 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks tumble as Biden signals support for Fed rate hikes

(19 January 2022) Stocks fell again today after President Joe Biden voiced his support for the Fed's intention to raise interest rates in order to fight inflation.  The political cover from the White House will give the Fed a freer hand to hike rates, even if there is some economic fallout in highly-leveraged sectors such as real estate and tech stocks.  US stocks have fallen 6% so far in January as the specter of rising inflation has forced investors to price in multiple rate hikes in 2022. After an extended period with rates stuck at the zero-bound, investors are having to recalibrate their expectations as monetary policy gradually returns to normal for a post-Covid world.

Part of the reason for this January pullback is due to the simultaneous retrograde periods of Venus (Dec 19-Jan 29) and Mercury (Jan 14-Feb 4).  Since both of these planets are considered natural benefics, their backwards motion can negate their typically positive influence and make markets more vulnerable to declines. 

In addition, we note that there are currently four planets transiting the sign of sidereal Capricorn.  While Capricorn is not inherently bearish, it is ruled by Saturn, which is the most bearish planet in the solar system.  And of course, we should note that Saturn itself is currently transiting Capricorn, along with Pluto, the Sun and Mercury retrograde. 

The Sun and Mercury are more important in this respect since they are hemmed in between malefics Saturn and Pluto and thus form an inauspicious papa katari (scissors) yoga.  Mercury entered into a weakened hemmed in state on Dec 30 while the Sun became hemmed in on Jan 16.  As a modern planet, Pluto is not normally considered in traditional Vedic yogas, but here I would nonetheless suggest that its inherently malefic nature makes it more difficult for the Sun and Mercury exhibit a more positive influence.

Market sentiment could therefore remain vulnerable as long as the Sun and Mercury are stuck between Saturn (20 Capricorn) and Pluto (2 Capricorn).  The faster-moving Sun isn't due to pass the slower-moving Saturn until Feb 4 while retrograde Mercury will briefly pass back over Pluto on Jan 29 and remain outside of the Saturn-Pluto scissors until Feb 10. Interestingly, Venus is also due to end its retrograde cycle on Jan 29, so that day could prove significant.  Of course, with Mercury due to end its retrograde cycle on Feb 4, there are multiple reasons why stocks could rebound beginning in late January or early February. 

Next week's planets do not look particularly favourable.  Mars (6 Sagittarius), Mercury (7 Capricorn) and Rahu (5 Taurus) are all in fairly close alignment and thus could coincide with further downside.  While the three planets are never quite exact in their 30-degree multiples, they are nonetheless close enough to signal some difficulties.  The probability of declines is increased since Rahu will be in a close conjunction with the natal Sun (6 Taurus) in the NYSE horoscope.  It is also worth noting that this alignment is closest before the Wednesday FOMC meeting on Jan 26.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

US inflation hits 7% ahead of Mercury retrograde station

(12 January 2022)  Omicron.  New lockdowns.  And now US inflation hitting a 40-year high of 7%.  Not exactly a great start to 2022.  And yet the stock market has barely flinched as a result of this week's rebound following Monday's sell-off.  

One way to explain this apparent contradiction is the Federal Reserve. The Fed remains the trusted backstop for Wall Street through its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.  Its commitment to full employment allows the Fed keeps its monetary policy loose which, in turn, supports the stock market through generous injections of QE liquidity. 

Problems emerge, however, when inflation exceeds acceptable limits (remember the Fed's 2% target?) since it forces the Fed to finally get serious and take away the punch bowl.  Yesterday's Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell affirmed his intention to finally tighten monetary policy and combat inflation after almost two full years of Covid-driven QE.  Most observers now expect a March rate hike as the Fed pivots from bailing out investors to serving the needs of the average American trying to put food on the table.

Stocks are trading just a little below their highs as we approach the Mercury retrograde station at 6.42 a.m. EST, Friday, January 14.  All things being equal, Mercury retrograde stations have a modest bearish bias so we should expect some kind of pullback here.  However, we should note that each Mercury retrograde station is unique since the relative condition of other planets  determines the relative bearishness of the upcoming 21-day retrograde cycle (Jan 14-Feb 4).

This particular station looks more troublesome than normal since Mercury (16 Capricorn) will be exactly square Uranus (16 Aries) and conjunct Saturn (19 Capricorn).  The Mercury-Uranus is very unstable and may symbolize sudden and disruptive developments, especially pertaining to transportation and computers. This setup looks more difficult than the current supply-chain problems and could mark the start of a new challenge that causes problems for the economy.  Also, the Mercury-Uranus square may signify a computer or technology outage such as a cyber-attack or malfunctioning database or undersea cable. The Mercury-Saturn conjunction is bearish, of course, and makes these more negative scenarios more likely.

The bearish effects of Mercury retrograde stations tend to linger beyond the specific day of the planetary reversal.  This lingering effect seems more likely than not here given the concurrent afflictions of the Biden horoscope that I have mentioned in previous posts.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Photo credit: Ben Schumin

Stocks fall as Fed signals faster tightening

(5 January 2022) Stocks sold off today after Fed minutes revealed a hastened timetable for tightening monetary policy in order to combat inflation.  While the December FOMC statement outlined an accelerated tapering of QE asset purchases, today's hawkish minutes forecast three rate hikes in 2022 and a rapid unwinding of the Fed's $8 Trillion balance sheet.  Clearly, the Fed is finally starting to take its inflation mandate seriously as producer and consumer prices spiral out of control. 

For a stock market more dependent on liquidity than fundamentals, today's news came as a nasty surprise.  If the Fed's largesse can no longer be relied upon to underwrite the rally, investors may be forced to reconsider their risk exposure.  Even if the doom and gloom of Omicron grabs the headlines, market moves are more closely associated with liquidity.  But liquidity may be in a shorter supply with a tighter Fed and a blocked Congress after Senator Manchin's refusal to sign-off on President Biden's signature spending proposal.  Without these twin growth engines, markets may become more vulnerable.

The current planetary situation suggests caution.  While the ongoing Venus retrograde cycle since December 19 has actually been largely bullish, the cycle doesn't finish until January 29.  This leaves the door open for further volatility.  In addition, the upcoming Mercury retrograde station on January 14 is a source of concern since Mercury turns retrograde while in a close three-degree conjunction with Saturn.  Of course, Saturn is the most bearish planet and Mercury retrograde stations tend to coincide with pullbacks.  Put them together and you have a much stronger case for further selling.

I would also note that the Mars-Neptune square early next week is bearish.  The bearish probability is elevated since it will activate the natal Mars (27 Leo) in the NYSE chart and the MC in President Biden's chart (26 Leo).  The NYSE activation is perhaps more obvious since Mars (26 Scorpio) forms a 90-degree angle with Neptune (26 Aquarius) and together comprise a tense t-square.  (Here we should note that all positions are sidereal and thus this exact alignment is less compelling if using the Western tropical zodiac as it is a few degrees out.) 

The Biden natal chart is also afflicted by the Mars-Neptune square and is another reason why January could be very tough for the president and for financial markets. As noted previously, Saturn is currently sitting in a very tense square alignment with Biden's natal Mars (19 Libra) and likely reflects an array of challenges including insufficient Covid testing, lockdowns, inflation and sharply falling approval ratings.  Saturn square to his Mars suggests more frustrations and failures this month while the Mars-Neptune square to his MC (10th house cusp) could coincide with a new trouble spot, possibly involving corruption (Mars-Neptune) or a new health challenge for the country.

Biden's chart is further afflicted by transiting Ketu (6 Scorpio) which is approaching a conjunction with his Sun and Venus.  Ketu can be a wild card influence for good or ill but given the other negative influences here, it does not bode well for the president.  Ketu symbolizes sudden and unexpected developments which tend to have a negative or ascetic effect upon the wishes of the individual.  Since the Sun and Venus are involved, we could see his leadership (Sun) called into question or his economic policies (Venus) subject to more virgorous criticism.  Since Biden's chart is the proxy for the US as a whole, these afflictions may well pertain to the country rather than to Biden personally.  It looks like a difficult time in any event.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.