New Year's horoscope 2023

(28 December 2022) Out with the old, in with the new.  As we approach the start of 2023, it is good time to consider the astrological promise of the year ahead.  Although it does not have any specific astronomical importance, experience tells us the New Year’s chart cast for midnight, January 1 can accurately highlight themes that will be important for next 12 months.  For example, New Year’s charts which are largely free from affliction from malefic planets (Mars, Saturn, Rahu/Ketu) can signal years where the world as a whole seems more focused on positive growth and forward development.  However, sometimes the planets in New Year’s charts are marred by bad aspects from the likes of Mars and Saturn.  These afflicted Jan 1 charts can therefore become a warning of upcoming difficulties that are more likely to disrupt the global order.

Given last year’s Moon-Mars conjunction in sidereal Scorpio, for example, I suggested that “military conflict” could become a major concern.   Indeed, the war in Ukraine became a huge problem in 2022 both in terms of human suffering and in terms of economic consequences from surging inflation and widespread energy shortages.  While I was largely off the market in my call for further Covid-related problems, I was more correct is suggesting that the affliction of Mercury could translate into economic hardship.  Specifically, I thought that Mercury’s conjunction with Pluto and aspects with Rahu and Mars could indicate “higher inflation and higher interest rates” along with “slower growth and lower stock market returns in 2022”.  These predictions have largely come to pass as 2022 has brought a major stock market decline in most countries as inflation has forced central banks to hike rates to their highest levels in almost 40 years.

 

Sad to say, however, that Mercury is again involved in a difficult Saturn alignment for 2023. As the planet most closely associated with the economy, Mercury (29 Sagittarius) is retrograde and aligned with Saturn (28 Capricorn) and Neptune (28 Aquarius) on January 1.   As both Saturn and Neptune are unwelcome influences here for Mercury, it seems likely that the global economy will fall into recession during 2023.  Mercury-Saturn alignments are more specifically identified with slowdowns, but the addition of Neptune here makes the overall picture somewhat worse.  Of course, Neptune was front and center in the 2020 New Year’s chart that suggested some kind of epidemic was possible during that year.  Its further involvement in 2023 means that the pandemic could remain an ongoing concern in the New Year, either in terms of new variants or simply by virtue of its economic knock-on effects such as further supply-chain disruptions.  And we should note that Mercury is further afflicted by the 135-degree alignment with Mars (14 Taurus).  While not a full-strength Vedic aspect, the 135-degree alignment translates as a conjunction in the Vedic D-8 ashthamsa chart.  One possible interpretation would be economic setbacks (Mercury) due to war and conflict (Mars).

We can also see a close aspect between Rahu (North Lunar Node — 17 Aries) and the Sun (16 Sagittarius).   Since the Sun symbolizes rulers and government, the Rahu aspect can mean interruption or perhaps a deposing or replacement of a world leader.  The Rahu-Sun aspect is often bad news for governments as well and increases the chances of a change in leaders or at least a major change in policy.

One particularly interesting feature of the chart is the near-exact conjunction of Venus (3 Capricorn 33) with Pluto (3 Capricorn 35).  Venus is a benefic planet and symbolizes women, of course, but also art and anything of value, including money.  Pluto is a more malefic energy and represents power and coercion as well and the general concept of transformation.  One interpretation of the Venus-Pluto conjunction would be ‘female power’, as if there could be a further move towards woman holding positions of power in the world.  But an alternative perspective could be the ‘transformation of value’ such as we see through cryptocurrencies and the possible rise of digital currencies.  Given the recent turmoil in the crypto market, it may be more likely that the Venus-Pluto conjunction could represent the launch of the first major central bank digital currency, for better or worse.

Overall, the New Year’s chart for midnight January 1, 2023 is reason to be realistic about the next 12 months for most of us.  It seems likely there will be more troubles that we need to endure before we can come out the other end of the current difficult period.  While 2024 could well deliver more of the same, there is good reason to hope for better days in 2025.

Weekly Market Forecast

As expected, stocks have generally moved lower in this post-Christmas week.  The Santa Claus rally has yet to appear as 1) Mercury aligns with Mars and Venus and 2) Saturn approaches its alignment with Neptune.  Both of these alignments are bearish influences that have so far negated any bullish seasonality.

And with Mercury due to turn retrograde early tomorrow morning (EST), there seems to be little reason for this down trend to reverse higher in the coming days.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Mercury retrograde threatens Santa Claus rally

(21 December 2022) US stocks have rebounded this week as recession fears have receded and traders look forward to a possible year-end Santa Claus rally.  The Santa Claus rally describes the seasonal tendency for stocks to rise in the second half of December, and especially from the first trading day after Christmas until the second day of the New Year.   Buyers this week are therefore anticipating some follow through after Christmas which could carry on into early January.

But how likely is a Santa Claus rally this year?  Certainly, some upside this week was fairly likely given how oversold stocks had become after last week’s sell-off.  And the surge in the Japanese yen after the BOJ shift in its bond policy may also be seen as generally positive for stocks since it undermines the dollar.  The rally in the greenback has been one major reason why liquidity has dried up this year and stocks have trended lower.

And yet the planets do not very bullish next week.  Not only is the worrisome Saturn-Neptune alignment tightening further, but Mercury turns retrograde on Thursday, Dec 29 at 4.31 a.m. EST.  The condition of Mercury, the planet closely associated with matters of trade and commerce, can directly influence the stock market.  As we saw last week, the double affliction of Mercury by malefics Mars and Rahu (North Lunar Node) coincided exactly with a significant late week decline.  When Mercury is weakened or damaged in this way, stocks tend to fall.

The retrograde station of Mercury is another such negative condition that is broadly correlated with declines.  Of course, Mercury isn’t actually stopping and reversing in its orbit; it only appears that way in the sky from our vantage point on Earth.  Nonetheless, this apparent reversal of its motion is often coincident with problems and unexpected developments related to communication and transportation, in addition to temporarily worsening market conditions.

But we should note that not every Mercury retrograde station is equally bearish.  Some Mercury stations are relatively benign, and a few may even be bullish when Mercury aligns with a benefic planet like Jupiter.  But when Mercury aligns with a bearish planet at the time of its station, then the odds for a pullback significantly increase.

This particular Mercury retrograde station on Thursday is an interesting mix of influences.  On one hand, its near exact conjunction with Venus is very bullish and could help support some kind of rally.  But as it happens, Mercury is also aligned with bearish Mars through a 135-degree separation.  While this is not a traditional Vedic aspect, it nonetheless deserves our attention since all three of Mercury, Venus and Mars are conjunct in the 8th divisional chart or Ashtamsha (D-8).  It is tempting to think that the blend of both positive influences (Venus) and negative (Mars) on Mercury could produce a somewhat neutral outlook late next week.  And yet the presence of Mars in the equation increases the overall downside risk since Mars aligns and afflicts both Mercury and Venus.

Given this Mars influence, there is good reason to be skeptical about the prospects for a Santa Claus rally after Christmas.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

The cost of money rises again as Fed hikes rates by another 50 basis points

US stocks fell today as Fed Chair Jerome Powell hiked rates by 50 basis points and reaffirmed his commitment to raise interest rates even higher in 2023 in order to curb inflation.  Even if investors had bid up stocks after Tuesday’s cooler-than-expected 7.1% CPI print, the Fed’s target for a higher terminal rate next year was seen as hawkish.  While stocks suffered a modest loss today, bond yields and the dollar held mostly steady.

As noted in last week’s post, bond yields look vulnerable to another round of increases, either as a result of strong economic growth or a more hawkish Fed dedicated to taking rates  above 5% next year.  The Saturn-Neptune alignment is pivotal in this respect as forms important alignments with the US Treasuries horoscope which makes higher bond yields more likely in the coming weeks.  In the current environment, higher yields are bad news for stocks as they point towards more expensive credit which will eventually weigh on economic activity.

Stocks are also vulnerable to declines with the approach of the Saturn-Neptune alignment in the coming weeks.  More immediately, there is a possibility of more selling in the wake of the Fed decision.  While the Saturn-Neptune alignment is only two degrees from exact, the extent of its current influence is unclear.  Usually, alignments between slow-moving planets need to be closer to exert a stronger influence on stocks.

Instead, we can look at a fairly bearish set up for the rest of this week as Mercury aligns with Mars and Rahu (North Lunar Node).  More specifically, we can say that Mercury will be aspected by both Mars and Rahu on Thursday and Friday.  Mars (19 Taurus) casts its full-strength 210-degree, 8th house aspect to Mercury (18 Sagittarius), the planet of commerce and trading. Mercury is also at the receiving end of another dose of potentially bearish energy as Rahu (18 Aries) casts its 120-degree aspect within one degree.  While Mars-Mercury aspects tend to be bearish, Rahu-Mercury aspects are a bit more mixed, although with some downside risk.  The fact that these two afflictions to Mercury occur almost simultaneously is a red flag.

But financial astrology demands we look at the whole picture in order to weigh the importance of all the relevant influences.  There is a potentially offsetting influence in play this week given the Sun-Venus/Jupiter-Chiron alignment.  This alignment should be seen having second tier strength, however, since there are no direct aspects involved.  Instead, the alignment is formed through angular separation.

Thus, the angular separation of the Sun and Venus (=13°16) is almost equal to the angular separation of Jupiter and Chiron (=12°22).  Both of these planetary pairs are somewhat bullish and their resonance through equal angular separation suggests some optimism.  However, we should note that the faster-moving Sun-Venus pair (13°) has already moved beyond the 12° Jupiter-Chiron separation.  In fact, the angular separation of these two pairs almost matched exactly earlier in the week when stocks were bullish.  The fact that they are separating now suggests optimism could be diminishing just as the pessimism and anxiety of the Mercury-Mars-Rahu alignment is increasing.  Thursday morning’s Mars-Moon square also looks negative.

Right now, I would be fairly skeptical about the prospects for a year-end Santa Claus rally.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Stocks rally after Powell signals slower pace of rate hikes

(30 November 2022) Stocks rallied today after Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that current economic circumstances may justify a smaller 50 point rate hike as soon as next FOMC meeting on December 14.  All the major indexes rose sharply on the remarks and the S&P 500 even finished above its 200-day moving average at 4080.  The rally follows some post-Thanksgiving weakness earlier in the week that had resulted from worries that lockdowns and protests in China may extend supply chain disruptions.   Covid-related supply chain disruptions have been one of the main drivers of inflation in recent months.

While the early week declines coincided with several bearish Mars alignments with Saturn, Mercury and Venus, today’s rally was surprising as it appeared to anticipate more favourable late week patterns, such as the Moon and Jupiter conjunction.   In addition, I thought that some early week declines were more likely since the angular separation of Mars-Uranus (=33) matched that of Saturn-Neptune (=33).  Both of these planetary pairs were bearish influences since each contained a bearish planet — Mars and Saturn.

 

One possible explanation for Wednesday’s strong rally is that this angular separation had moved past exact as Saturn’s forward motion had reduced the angular separation to a bit less than 33 degrees.   With both Mars and Uranus moving in slower retrograde motion, their angular separation remained fairly constant at 33 degrees, or 32 degrees 55 minutes, to be exact.  The negative effects of the two planetary pairs therefore diminished once they moved past their point of equal angular separation.

At the same time, we can see two bullish pairings approaching a point of greater resonance.  Jupiter-Chiron (=13 degs 17 mins) is approaching the same angular separation of Sun-Mercury (= 12 degs 11 mins).  Since Mercury is the faster of the two planets, this angular separation is widening every day and will exactly match the angular separation of Jupiter-Chiron on Friday.  While I expected some late week upside on this four-planet alignment, today’s rally arrived a bit ahead of schedule and with considerably more force.

While some follow through to the upside is very possible from this pattern, next week’s Sun-Mars opposition on the Full Moon on Wednesday and Thursday looks more bearish.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

 

Stocks rally into Thanksgiving and the Jupiter direct station

 

(23 November 2022) US stocks extended their rebound Wednesday as Fed minutes suggested a willingness to slow the pace of interest rate hikes in the face of moderating inflation pressures.  The S&P 500 pushed above the 4000 level to 4027 and came to within a stone’s throw of the 200 day moving average of 4059.  The rally wasn’t too surprising given the bullish seasonality at Thanksgiving and the favourable Mercury-Venus and Sun-Jupiter alignments this week.

How long can this rally last?  The planets are pointing towards a pullback in the days ahead.  Jupiter changes direction today (Nov 23) as it ends its four-month long retrograde cycle. While not usually a decisive influence, the change in direction of a major planet like Jupiter can sometimes signal a trend change in the market.  More important, however, is that Mars is due to align with Saturn early next week.

On the face of it, the Mars-Saturn alignment may not look that bad since it is a seemingly more constructive 120-degree alignment.  Nonetheless, there is good reason to think that sentiment could worsen significantly.  First, the Mars-Saturn alignment at 25 degrees of Taurus and Capricorn, respectively, will recreate the same Mars-Saturn alignment in late September that coincided with significant downside and an interim low.   This time around their directions will be reversed since Mars is now retrograde while Saturn is moving forward.  Previously, Mars was direct and Saturn was retrograde.  So while it’s not exactly the same setup, it’s close enough to warrant our attention.

The other factor to consider is that Mars will oppose both Mercury and Venus next week.  Both of these alignments are bearish, not only because Mars doesn’t blend well with Mercury or Venus, but also because the opposition aspect is usually more difficult.  The fact that Saturn will also be present in the alignment could complicate matters somewhat and introduce the possibility of short term moves in either direction.

 

Additionally, we should note that the equivalent angular separations of key bearish planetary pairings.  As a rule, whenever bearish planetary pairs (i.e. those that include either Mars or Saturn) are separated by the same angular distance as other slow moving planetary pairs, declines become more likely.  Next week, we will have not one but two such bearish pairings as the Mars-Uranus separation will be 33 degrees and this will almost equal both the Uranus-Chiron pairing (34 degrees) and Saturn-Neptune (33 degrees).  The resonance of Mars-Uranus and Saturn-Neptune are particularly bearish since both are negative influences.  While the accompanying chart  is cast for Monday, Nov 28, we should note that the bearish influence will extend throughout the week.

Significantly, there are no potentially offsetting bullish Jupiter pairings, even involving faster-moving planets such as the Sun, Mercury and Venus.  The Jupiter-Neptune separation is 6 degrees while the Jupiter-Chiron separation is 14 degrees.  Neither pairing finds an equivalent separation with the Sun-Mercury (=11), Mercury-Venus (=2) or Sun-Venus (=9).  The absence of any positive planetary pairings therefore increase the odds of some downside next week.

 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

 

US midterm election outcome still undecided

 

(9 November 2022) The outcome of yesterday’s US midterm elections remains unknown today as many races are still too close to call.  With a near-even split of seats in both the House and the Senate, it may be days or even weeks before we know which party will win control.  US stock markets sold off today on the unexpected uncertainty, after many polls had suggested a Republican “red wave” which failed to materialize.

This unexpected result was perhaps not so very unexpected from an astrological perspective.  In a previous post, I had noted that the midterm election coincided with a lunar eclipse which significantly increased the likelihood of uncertain outcomes.  The disruptive potential of the eclipse was further increased since it occurred at 22 degrees of sidereal Aries and thus exactly conjoined Uranus, the planet of unpredictable and surprising events.  The negative market impact likely derived not from the eclipse itself, however, but from the fact that eclipse highlighted the ongoing Saturn-Uranus square.  As we know, planetary alignments involving Saturn are usually bearish for market sentiment.

So what happens now? In market terms, it is possible we could see further weakness this week as Mercury and the Sun square Saturn, either because of the continued election uncertainty or perhaps from tomorrow’s CPI report in the US.  Politically, there is some chance that Biden and the Democrats could salvage the situation over the weekend.  Biden’s chart is still quite afflicted by the ongoing Saturn-Uranus square and Saturn’s aspect to his natal Mars (19 Libra) and Mercury (28 Libra).  And yet there could be some improvement in his fortunes on Sunday and Monday as Venus and Jupiter align with his Sun-Venus conjunction at 4-5 Scorpio, as well as aspecting his natal Jupiter at 2 Cancer.   On Sunday evening, the Moon will join this alignment and create a “Grand Trine” where each planet is separated by 120 degrees. This is usually a signal for favourable developments.  While it is impossible to know if this will be election related, it nonetheless opens the door to some good news.  One possible scenario would be that the outcome of a key Senate races is finalized on Sunday or early next week that allows Democrats to retain control of that chamber.

 

The other favourable time window for Biden and the Democrats is around Nov 19-20 when the Sun conjoins Biden’s Sun-Venus conjunction.  As an added plus, both Mercury and Venus will conjoin Biden’s Ascendant, although we should note there is still some uncertainty about the accuracy of Biden’s birth time.  Nonetheless, this means that even if Senate control isn’t clear by early next week, the Democrats could get some more positive election-related news in this second favourable time window.

The other thing working in Biden’s favour here is that Jupiter is due to end its retrograde cycle and station direct at 4 degrees of Pisces on Nov 23.  This will form an exact 120 degree aspect to both his Sun-Venus conjunction and his his natal Jupiter and should provide a temporary boost for him at various points during the month of November.  This positive Jupiter influence will likely dissipate after Nov 23 as it begins to separate from the natal Sun and Venus.

The other takeaway from the election is the relatively weaker position of former president Donald Trump.  The failure of the “red wave” of GOP seats was a partial rejection by voters of his more radical platform that questioned US election integrity.  After the defeat of several of his endorsed candidates, his potential candidacy for the 2024 election is now in doubt.  Betting markets now put Florida governor Ron DeSantis as the favourite to be the GOP nominee over Trump for the first time.

We can see some astrological indications for Trump’s disappointing election outcome.  Not only was retrograde Mars conjunct his Sun and opposite his Moon, but Mars is forming a very difficult square alignment with Neptune.  The ongoing Neptune square with his Sun-Moon natal opposition is the major reason why Trump has been on the defensive this year, as he attempts to deflect responsibility for his role in January 6 Capitol riot.  Trump is likely to remain weakened politically into early 2023 at least as the Saturn-Neptune alignment (Dec 2022) and then the Saturn-Pluto alignment (Mar 2023) activate key points in his horoscope.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek. Be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter

Stocks tumble as Fed raises rates 75 basis points

 

(2 November 2022) US stocks sold off on Wednesday after comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell effectively took the prospect of a Fed “pause” off the table for the foreseeable future.  While the market had already priced in the 75 basis point hike, Powell’s remarks reiterated his commitment to the 2% inflation target, even if it means a significantly higher terminal interest rate.

While stocks have rebounded fairly strongly off their mid-October lows, it remains to be seen if the low is in and the rally can continue.  As I noted last week, there is some reason to be skeptical about the current rally given the approach of next Tuesday’s lunar eclipse and the array of aspects involving the planet Saturn.  But will these upcoming Saturn alignments with Venus, Mercury and the Sun produce just a brief pullback or could it open the door to a deeper decline?

An additional perspective on this question can be seen in the horoscope of the Federal Reserve.   The Fed’s chart can offers clues about the general condition of financial markets as transit afflictions by Saturn or Rahu and Ketu tend to coincide with periods of instability while harmonious aspects of Jupiter can indicate relative calm.

In my September post about the Fed’s chart, I suggested that the approach of the Saturn station at 24 Capricorn was likely to mark a time of some difficulty for the Fed since it conjoins the 8th house cusp at 25 Capricorn.  According to the principles of Vedic astrology, the 8th house is regarded as the most malefic house in the chart.  Due to its retrograde cycle, Saturn has been within one degree of this sensitive cuspal point for more than two months.

In addition, I noted that Mars would conjoin the 12th house cusp at 25 Taurus in the Fed chart in the final week of September.  If the 8th house is the worst house, the 12th house is the second worst and having another malefic planet like Mars on the 12th cusp would likely reflect more problems for the Fed.   And indeed, stocks did drift lower in late September following the Fed’s FOMC decision to raise rates on Sep 21.

 

What we should note here is that this double-barreled affliction of Saturn and Mars to the 8th and 12th house cusps will actually set up again in late November.  With Saturn now resuming its forward motion after its Oct 23 station, it will tightly conjoin the equal 8th house cusp in the second half of November.  And since Mars turned retrograde on Oct 30, it is also due to return to the 12th house cusp in late November, with Nov 28 as a possible date of its maximum influence.  Of course, we should be aware that even if the planets re-create a previous pattern, we can’t necessarily assume identical outcomes.  In that sense, one doesn’t step into the same planetary ‘river’ twice.

One additional caveat here is that the afflictions to the Fed chart is a more inferential piece of evidence that may not directly reflect market moves.  An affliction to the Fed horoscope could therefore represent some other aspect of Fed policy which markets have already anticipated and discounted.  Perhaps there could be data that shows growth slowing while inflation remains stubbornly high.  This is a worse case scenario for the Fed as it will be forced to make a hard choice about tipping the economy into recession as a direct result of its policies.  And yet one would think that the market would welcome any chance of a pivot towards ending the current cycle of rate hikes.  Nonetheless, theses late November alignments do suggest some reason for caution about financial markets.

 

These updates are posted each week, usually on Tuesday or Wednesday. 

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Lunar eclipse casts shadow over US midterm elections

 

(26 October 2022)  With the approach the US midterm elections on Nov 8, polls are predicting a close race with Republicans (GOP) enjoying a slight edge.   Held two years after the presidential election, the midterms determine which party controls the two houses of Congress.  Currently, Democrats control both the House and the Senate, albeit by the narrowest of margins in the case of the Senate.  Polls are showing the GOP will easily win the House of Representatives, but the Senate looks much tighter.  Polls over the past two weeks have shown the GOP gaining ground on the Democrats with some aggregators now predicting a narrow GOP win with 51 or 52 seats out of 100.

From an astrological perspective, the Democrats definitely look vulnerable.  President Joe Biden’s chart is significantly afflicted during the run-up to the Nov 8 election.  Transiting Ketu is conjunct his natal Mars (19 Libra) in his 12th house of loss.  Ketu (South Lunar Node) is a natural malefic that symbolizes fast-changing and chaotic situations and its combination with a 12th house Mars looks difficult for Biden and the Democrats. Of course, the Ketu-Mars transit may not necessarily relate to the election result but given the importance of the election for the Biden platform, it nonetheless argues for a major setback for the Democrats.

Saturn (24 Capricorn), now having completed its retrograde cycle, is still locked in a heavy square aspect to Biden’s Mercury and Mars.  Given its slow speed and recent retrograde cycle, Saturn has been in this challenging aspect all year and is one obvious reason why Biden’s approval is remains submerged well below 50% as he struggles to deal with the political fallout of rising inflation and his administration’s blank check funding for the war in Ukraine.

One very intriguing fact about the midterm elections is that they will occur on the same day as a lunar eclipse.  On November 8, a lunar eclipse takes place at 21 degrees of sidereal Aries, thus forming an exact square with unpredictable Uranus and a slightly wider square with pessimistic Saturn.   While eclipses are normally associated with disruptions or suspensions of the status quo in any event, this Nov 8 eclipse is front-loaded with a potential for significant disruption and change.

 

But how to interpret this?  I think the most basic point here is that an election day eclipse occurring in an already-afflicted chart of the incumbent party leader strongly indicates a defeat for the Democrats and specifically, the loss of the Senate.  The conjunction by a freshly retrograde Mars to the Ascendant (1 Gemini) and natal Rahu of the horoscope of Vice-President Kamala Harris’ is additional evidence of the Democrats woes here at the end of October and beginning of November.

But at another level, the effect of an election day eclipse could also increase the risk of an uncertain or disputed outcome.  To be sure, contested election results have become all-too-common in the US these days as the patchwork quilt of state election laws make it more likely for the losing side to launch lawsuits and recounts.  So while the planets are pointing towards a Democrat defeat, they also increase the likelihood of some uncertainty that could last beyond election day and may include legal challenges to the outcome.

Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks have been in rebound mode in recent days as inflation fears have subsided somewhat and taken some of the pressure off the Fed.  This week’s rally appeared to coincide with a favorable solar eclipse which conjoined Venus at 8 degrees of sidereal Libra.  Tuesday’s eclipse was within one degree of Venus, which is considered to be a mostly bullish influence on sentiment.  In addition, Saturn has returned to its normal direct motion as of Oct 23 and thus offers a theoretical reason at least for a lessening of pessimism.

However, Mars is about to turn retrograde on Sunday, Oct 30.  Like Saturn, Mars tends to be a bearish planet when it becomes prominent, either by aspect or by condition.  The period around the retrograde station therefore brings an elevated downside risk for stocks.  We also note that this particular station of Mars at 1 Gemini will aspect Pluto within just one degree.  Mars-Pluto aspects tend to be bearish combinations in any event, and if we include the retrograde station into the mix, market risk would seem to be somewhat higher.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Photo Credit: David

Stocks bounce on earnings optimism; UK inflation weighs

 (19 October 2022) Stocks have moved higher this week on optimism that earnings season may bring better than expected results.  However, Wednesday's pullback was a reminder of the fragility of the current rebound as bond yields moved to new highs after UK inflation hit the psychologically important 10% level. 

Nonetheless, this week's bounce is in keeping with our astrological expectations.  First, the entry of Venus into sidereal Libra on Tuesday tends to be bullish, even if this year's ingress was marked by a potentially complicating influence from its simultaneous alignment with Mars.  But last week we also noted the presence of a second bullish influence in the four-planet alignment of Mercury, Venus, Jupiter and Chiron.   On Tuesday, the angular separation of the bullish pairing of Mercury and Venus was 13 degrees.  This matched the angular separation of another bullish pairing of Jupiter and Chiron.  While the week is not yet over, Tuesday was the high of the week and provided some confirmation of the effects of these two different positive influences.

There is some reason to be cautious for the next several sessions.  On the plus side, the Mercury-Venus separation will narrow to 12 degrees but still be within one degree of the Jupiter-Chiron angular separation.  This may act as residual, if declining, bullish sentiment.  Also we should note that the Sun-Mercury angular separation is just a bit under 13 degrees for Thursday's session.  While probably not as positive as Mercury-Venus, this could act as another favourable influence as it resonates with Jupiter and Chiron. 

However, some of this bullish influence could be offset by the square alignment of Sun-Venus with Pluto.  With the Sun and Venus are essentially moving as one in early Libra, the 90-degree alignment with Pluto suggests a more negative mood.  And if we throw in the approaching Saturn direct station on Sunday, Oct 23 which highlights its ongoing square with Uranus, there are also some potentially negative influences to consider here. 

However, on a relative basis, sentiment could be subject to an even greater risk as we approach the Mars retrograde station on Oct 30, when the red planet reverses its apparent motion from forwards to backwards.  Mars is a malefic planet, of course, and the time around its retrograde stations can be volatile, especially if Mars forms alignments with other planets.  This is very much the case here as Mars will cast its full-strength 8th house aspect (i.e. 210 degrees) to Pluto at the end of October.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.


Photo Credit: A. Duarte

US stocks fall to new lows ahead of CPI inflation data

(12 October 2022) US stocks closed at a new low for the year today as wholesale PPI inflation came in higher than expected at 8.5%.  And with the Fed showing no signs of pivoting towards easing any time soon, investors are now considering the very real possibility that interest rates will continue to climb well into 2023. 

This week's decline was not unexpected as it coincided closely with the Mars-Neptune square.  Hard Mars aspects (0, 90 or 180 degrees) have a bearish bias in any event, and this is even more likely when it involves an outer planet like Neptune.   Although it has been within range for the past several days, Mars formed its exact square aspect with Neptune this morning.   It is also worth noting that this was a partial strength backward square alignment rather the full-strength forward square according to Vedic aspecting rules.  Nonetheless, it was clearly bearish in the days leading up to today's theoretical maximum influence.

Tomorrow's CPI inflation number is likely to be a market mover.  I must admit I don't have any strong opinions of how the market will react given the mix of influences.  With Mars now moving past its square with Neptune, there is the possibility of a reduction of negative sentiment which could increase the odds of a rebound.  

Also, the Moon will form a loose alignment with Mercury and Jupiter in the morning which could also be a plus.  But the Venus-Saturn-Uranus alignment is more of a question mark and leaves open the possibility of more downside.  Of course, the underlying Saturn-Uranus square is not doing the markets any favours here, especially as Saturn slows ahead of its direct station on October 23.  But the short term alignments do offer some renewed hope for bulls here. 

Next week, we can see that the entry of Venus into sidereal Libra could throw the bulls a lifeline.  As I have previously noted, the transit of Venus through Virgo, its sign of debilitation, is often marked by market weakness.  This has been the case again this year as markets are trading lower since the entry into Virgo on Sep 24.  But where Virgo is a difficult sign for Venus, Libra tends to be better, especially right around the exact day of the ingress which occurs on Oct 18 this year.  While this isn't always bullish, the correlation is fairly high nonetheless.  If nothing else, it reduces the probability of some downside on that day.  

This year's ingress is a bit more complicated since Venus will align with Mars.  This Mars influence could offset some of the potential positive mood at the start of the week, although it seems less likely to totally negate it.  In addition, we can see that there is a potentially bullish four-planet set up next week.   Mercury and Venus will be separated by 13 degrees, and Jupiter and Chiron will also be separated by 13 degrees.  While Chiron can be either positive or negative in its effects, the other three planets are generally considered benefics and therefore seem more likely to generate some optimism.  These equal angular separations create a kind of bullish resonance among the four planets which make gains more likely during the time of when the angular separations are closest.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks rebound as inflation worries ease

(5 October 2022) US stocks have staged an impressive 5% rebound so far this week after easing inflation concerns saw bond yields and the dollar move sharply lower.  Investors are fixated on inflation since the falling inflation translates into lower bond yields, cheaper credit and greater economic activity.  The Federal Reserve is something of a wild card in this equation, however, as its ultra-hawkish stance this year has arguably made the sell-off worse.  Of course, the Fed's inaction in 2021 allowed inflation and the asset bubble get out of control in the first place.

There are several astrological reasons for this week's rebound.  First, Mercury ended its three-week retrograde cycle over the weekend and returned to direct motion on Sunday.  Mercury, the planet of trading and commerce, tends to be more bullish when it moves forward, although we should note this is usually not a strong influence. More important perhaps was the fact that Mercury began to separate from its opposition with Neptune.  Mercury-Neptune oppositions are usually bearish, especially if Mercury stations retrograde or direct around the time of the opposition.  That was very much the case here as stocks fell through much of last week just before the direct station while Mercury was still approaching its opposition with Neptune.  Sentiment began to improve once the opposition aspect began to separate on Monday.

One other significant reason for this week's gains is due to a bullish midpoint alignment involving Mercury, Venus, Jupiter and Chiron.  While midpoints are not part of traditional Vedic astrology, I have found them to be a useful add-on to more fundamental techniques of analysis.  Specifically, I have found that midpoints that are defined in terms of angular separation are worth paying attention to.  When two pairs of planets are separated by an equal number of degrees, their energies are more likely to resonate, for good or ill.  So if Jupiter is one of the four planets, then there is a better chance for gains.  If Saturn is one of the four planets, then declines become more likely. 

One way to eyeball these planetary resonances is to focus first on slow-moving pairs involving distant planets. We can see that Jupiter and Chiron, a bullish planetary pair, are separated by about 12 degrees.  And we can see that Mercury and Venus were also separated by about 12 degrees in the first half the week.  Since both Mercury and Venus are considered benefic planets, there are arguably three bullish planets involved in this alignment and Chiron is also usually bullish unless it is aligned with Saturn.  In terms of midpoints, we can say that the midpoint of Mercury and Chiron (10 Gemini) equals or resonates with the midpoint of Venus and Jupiter (10 Sagittarius).

But since Mercury has a very slow velocity in the aftermath of its direct station on Sunday, this 12-degree separation was quite short-lived. By today's session, it had widened to 13 degrees while the slow-moving Jupiter-Chiron pairing was still near 12 degrees.  That was one reason why we may have seen a modest decline on Wednesday. 

While these four-planet angular separations do not override other, more direct aspects, they should be integrated into a broader analysis of market influences. In fact, we can see another four-planet alignment could negatively shape sentiment in the coming days.  The slow-moving bearish Saturn-Neptune pairing is separated by 34-35 degrees.  On Friday, Mars and Uranus will also be separated by 34 degrees.  Since both Saturn and Mars are malefic planets, this four-planet resonant alignment increases the odds of declines later this week.  Although the angular separation of Mars and Uranus widens to 35 degrees next Monday, this could still be within range of the ongoing Saturn-Neptune pairing.  While there are no hard and fast rules about the effective range of these resonate pairings, I would think anything within one degree or less is potentially significant. 

Of course, the approaching Mars-Neptune square (exact late on Tuesday), is bearish in its own right and significantly boosts downside risk next week.  While this is not a full-strength forward square Mars aspect, it is nonetheless worthy of consideration due to its exactitude.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Photo Credit: Scott Beale

Ukraine crisis escalates after sabotage of Nord Stream pipeline

 (28 September 2022) The Ukraine crisis has taken a dangerous, new turn this week after the apparent sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines that carries Russian gas to Europe.  At this point, is it unclear who is responsible for the damage to the underwater pipeline which prompted more early week selling in the stock market and another swift rise in energy prices. The pipeline attack follows an eventful week in which Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization of 300,000 additional soldiers to bolster his flagging war efforts in the Ukraine, while referendums were held in the disputed provinces in eastern Ukraine which would facilitate a formal union with Russia. 

While most Western media seems convinced that Putin is in trouble following the recent retreat from Kharkiv, the astrological picture suggests otherwise.  If the Ukraine horoscope is correct (Aug 24 1991, 5.31 pm, Kyiv), the planets look difficult for Ukraine in the weeks ahead.  The transit of the Sun and Venus through Leo in September has generally been favourable to Ukraine's war effort.  This is not unexpected since Leo is in the 9th house of good fortune along with Jupiter, Mercury, Venus and the Sun.  It was a excellent transit set up for promising outcomes.  In addition, Mercury stationed retrograde on Sep 9 at 14 Virgo -- exactly conjunct the equal 10th house cusp and thus aligned with the natal Ascendant.  This was even more likely to coincide with positive events related to government since Mercury is strong in its own sign of Virgo. 

But those faster-moving transits have since passed out of the picture and the fighting continues across a wide front with little new movement.  As I see it, the bigger problems for Ukraine's efforts is that Saturn will station direct on Oct 23 at 24 Capricorn in an exact square with Pluto (24 Cancer).  This Saturn-Pluto alignment is symbolic of intense and brutal power struggles often entail damage and hardship,particularly when they occur when one of the planets is stationary. 

In addition, Ketu (South Lunar Node) is conjunct the Midheaven (unequal 10th house cusp) throughout the month of October.  This increases the risk of sudden events that could force government (10th house) to react quickly and perhaps irrationally. 

More immediately, Mercury is due to station direct at 0 Virgo on Oct 2 -- just one degree from a conjunction with natal Mars.  This combination suggests frustration and anger, especially related to leaders, and the station tends to have a more negative connotation. Therefore, we could see some important developments in the first days of October that ratchet up the tension even further.  While this Mercury-Mars conjunction isn't always a "bad" influence, it does tend to reflect difficult situations which may or may not have favourable outcomes.  

The bigger problem is that Mars is due to station retrograde on Oct 30 at 1 Gemini while in a close square aspect with natal Mars at 1 Virgo.  This is invariably a negative influence in matters related to government and leaders, perhaps directly concerned with the military.  There are rumours now that the additional Russian reserves could well be moved to the front lines at that time and that these reinforcements could pose a threat to existing Ukrainian positions.   More ominously, the Mars station at 1 Gemini will almost exactly conjoin the natal Mars in the USA horoscope at 0 degrees of sidereal Gemini.  This is an indication that the US could get more directly involved as the conflict escalates further.  All scenarios are on the table here given the volatile and violent Mars-Uranus conjunction in the Biden 2021 inauguration horoscope.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks rebounded today after falling further on Monday and Tuesday.  The blue chip indexes slipped a bit below their June lows before recovering sharply today after the Bank of England abruptly restarted its QE bond buying program in response to the controversial Truss-Kwarteng Budget. Markets took it as a sign that other central banks may follow suit soon enough as economic and military storm clouds are gathering.  Despite the recent spate of interest rate hikes, it seems increasingly likely that the ECB will also be forced to ease its monetary policy if the economic outlook deteriorates.  Eventually, even the Fed could also be forced to pivot as higher rates will make large numbers of the home owners insolvent amid falling house prices.

Today's gain could be seen in terms of both less negative influence and more positive influence.  The Mars-Saturn-Uranus alignment was near exact early this week just as stocks slumped towards their June lows.  By Wednesday, however, Mars had moved a bit past its alignment with Saturn and thus could signal a diminution of bearish influence.  At the same time, Jupiter (9 Pisces) is nicely placed in an approaching Grand Trine alignment (i.e. each factor separated by 120 degrees) with the natal Moon (7 Cancer) and the natal Jupiter-Neptune conjunction at 9-10 Scorpio.  Since Jupiter is moving quite slowly, I would not be surprised if this positive influence lasted a bit longer. 

And yet with retrograde Saturn (24 Cap) parked in a conjunction with the natal Sun (25 Cap) within just one degree, it's hard to get too bullish about the Nasdaq and about stocks in general in the near term.  

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks fall as Fed hikes rates another 75 points

(21 September 2022) The Federal Reserve surprised no one today by hiking interest rates another 75 basis points in its ongoing efforts to curb inflation.  The Fed's overnight lending rate now stands at 3.25% with a strong likelihood of rising to 4% at its next meeting in early November.  With inflation remaining stubbornly high, the Fed has little choice but to maintain its aggressive stance as markets are now expecting the tightening cycle to stay in place into 2023. 

In his remarks today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed will continue to raise rates as long as necessary to bring inflation back down to its 2% target.   All this hawkish talk was bad news for risk assets as stocks reversed course this afternoon and ended the day sharply lower.  Higher rates are typically anathema to investors as borrowing costs rise and choke off economic growth.  Powell also cautioned that house prices are likely to fall further while unemployment is almost certain to rise as the speculative froth comes out of the economy.

This week's decline appears to reflect the current afflictions the horoscope of the Federal Reserve.  Last month, I noted that the Fed's chart looked significantly afflicted for September and October.  Given the close correlation between the Fed's actions and the stock market, afflictions to the Fed chart tend to signal periods of weakness in stocks.   While the Fed generally wants stocks to rise in order to generate the "wealth effect" and boost the economy, their first priority is keeping inflation in check, even if that means sacrificing the stock market.

The afflictions of the conjunction of Saturn with the equal 8th house cusp and the conjunction of Ketu with the Moon appear to be in full force here.   The 8th house is traditionally considered the most malefic house so the Saturn conjunction is one of the worst influences imaginable.  The Saturn-8th house conjunction is likely made worse since Saturn is slowing down ahead of its direct station in late October.  In addition, since Saturn is now forming a very close square alignment with Uranus, both planets are resonating with the Fed's natal Ascendant at 25 Gemini.  This planetary alignment can almost be considered a "perfect storm" that is hitting the Fed.    Moreover, the Ketu-Moon conjunction intensifies these effects and may make the Fed's actions less popular to the point of being incomprehensible to the public.  The Moon symbolizes the public at large.

Interestingly, today's rate hike and subsequent stock sell-off comes just as Mars was conjunct natal Saturn and opposite Mercury and just a few degrees away from the 12th house cusp representing loss.   The involvement of malefic Mars here only serves to amplify the ongoing effects of Saturn and Uranus.   Both the Fed and financial markets may therefore remain under pressure in the coming days as Mars approaches the 12th cusp at 25 degrees of sidereal Taurus.  

Even though Ketu is starting to move away from its difficult conjunction with the Moon, the outlook is challenging in the short term since the Saturn-Uranus square will remain essentially stuck in that difficult place in the Fed horoscope until October.
 
For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.


Photo credit:  Kurtis Garbutt

Stocks plunge on rising US inflation

(14 September 2022) Stocks have fallen sharply this week as Tuesday's CPI number for August came in higher than expected.  The S&P 500 fell 4% while the Nasdaq lost 5% as the annual inflation rate rose to 8.3% and the closely watched Core inflation rate also rose to 6.3%.  Today's wholesale PPI rate didn't provide much relief as the Core rate rose to 7.3% in August even if the headline PPI slipped a bit to 8.7% from 8.8%. 

Investors had been hoping for evidence that inflation was starting to come down, thereby giving the Fed room to pause its rate hike cycle.  Instead, this latest data will likely force the Fed to continue to hike aggressively in the months ahead, as the Fed Watch tool how sees a 76% probability of a 75-basis point hike at next week's FOMC meeting.

This week's stock market decline is not surprising.  There were several factors in play this week that pointed towards some downside.  First, Mercury turned retrograde last Friday, Sep 9.  Mercury retrograde has a well-deserved bearish reputation, even if it has a significant error rate.  Indeed, Monday's gain appeared to negate the effect of Mercury's backward motion, if only for a day.  The retrograde cycle is more than just a single day, however, and highlights a period of about three weeks when markets are more vulnerable to declines and unexpected reversals.

Second, Mars is afflicting Venus this week by 90-degree square aspect.  While the aspect is closest on Friday, Sep 16, the Mars-Venus square is within range all week and increased the probability of some negative market outcomes. 

Third, Saturn (25 Capricorn) is quickly approaching its square alignment with Uranus (24 Aries).  This still has a few weeks to go before its closest alignment but it is well within range to have some negative effects on sentiment.  As a rule, all hard aspects involving Saturn are bearish, especially those involving slow moving planets such as Uranus.

If we take a look at the horoscope of the NASDAQ (Feb 8, 1971), we can see that there were other afflictions this week.  Transiting Saturn is almost exactly conjunct with the natal Sun at 25 Capricorn. This is a terrible influence which is strongly associated with negative outcomes.  We should note, however, that due to the slow speed of Saturn, the conjunction with the Sun is within an effective range for several weeks.   Nonetheless, Tuesday's 5% decline did occur when Saturn was just 7 minutes of arc past its exactly conjunction with the natal Sun  It was exact on Sunday, Sep 11.  Saturn will continue to back up to 24 Capricorn during the final weeks of its current retrograde cycle when it will station direct in late October.  Even then, it will remain be a potentially negative influence on the Sun and thus, the NASDAQ as a whole. 

And we can see that the Mars-Venus square aligned with the natal Mars (17 Scorpio) in the NASDAQ chart.  This is another high probability bearish alignment since aspects of Mars to its natal position tend to be bearish, especially the square, opposition and conjunction.  Mars is a day or two past an exact opposition with natal Mars but Venus is still a day short of an exact square.  Together, their influences may have averaged out and coincided with a sharp decline on Tuesday.

Looking ahead, it is very possible we could see further downside later this week as the Mars-Venus square will tighten on Thursday and Friday. 

It seems likely that we will see some positive effects from Jupiter's aspect with the natal Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (9-10 Scorpio) sometime over the next week or two.  And yet with the Saturn-Uranus square firmly anchored to the Sun in this chart, a strong rebound in October looks quite unlikely. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks rally as oil tumbles on China slowdown worries

(7 September 2022) Following their August decline, stocks have traded mostly higher so far this week following the Labor Day holiday in the US.  Markets rebounded on Wednesday as plunging oil prices took the pressure off bond yields as borrowing costs fell.  The stock market needs lower yields if it is to have any hope of mounting a sustained recovery, a difficult task to be sure in this inflationary environment. 

Of course, lower yields aren't always good news, especially if they are falling because markets are worried about a recession.  That could well be the case here as slowing data out of China due to Covid lockdowns are forcing traders to re-evaluate their economic projections.  As long as China's zero-Covid policy continues to randomly lockdown major cities for the foreseeable future, it will become harder for the world to avoid recession. 

But it is unclear how long the rebound in stocks can last since Mercury is due to turn retrograde just before midnight Friday, September 9.  Mercury retrograde has a deserved reputation as a bearish influence on the collective sentiment that drives the ups and downs of the stock market.  As the planet that governs trading and commerce, Mercury's condition in the sky is one of the key determinants to stock market movements.  When Mercury is well-placed by sign and aspect, markets are likely to rise, at least for the short term.  But if Mercury is associated with malefic planets like Saturn or is retrograde, it becomes that much harder for markets to rise, especially around the 2-4 day window around its retrograde and direct stations when it is reversing its direction. 

Of course, it is important to keep the influence Mercury retrograde in perspective.  While it is an important influence, there are other planets placements can also sometimes limit or offset its affliction.  And not all Mercury retrograde stations are created equal.  If Mercury is in hard aspect with malefics, then its retrograde and direct stations are likely to be very bearish indeed.  But if Mercury turns retrograde while in alignment with, say, Jupiter, then positive outcomes become more likely. 

The Mercury retrograde station this Saturday looks fairly benign as these things go.  First off, the fact that it stations over the weekend while markets are closed means its negative impact will be mitigated.  We could see some bearish fallout to end the week, but this does not look overly strong.  Monday will therefore be the first trading day with Mercury retrograde and the aspects that day actually don't look that bad.  And its close opposition with Jupiter is somewhat bullish. 

While some bearishness must be assumed by virtue of Mercury's apparent backward motion, there are no other strongly bearish influences upon Mercury to start the week.  Other planets are more bearish, however, such as the Sun-Saturn alignment and the Mars-Uranus alignment.  Moreover, the Mars square aspect to Venus is another bearish influence to be reckoned with, although it will be still three degrees from exact on Monday.  Overall, the start of next week is more likely to bring some downside even if retrograde Mercury is only part of the reason for it. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Europe's energy crisis deepens as Russia halts gas flow

(31 August 2022) The crisis in Europe only seems to go from bad to worse.  Russia's invasion of Ukraine initiated a cascade of events that has resulted in an unprecedented energy crisis in Europe.  The February invasion prompted Western countries to impose strict sanctions on Russia, including the banning of Russian oil and gas upon which Europe was almost wholly dependent.  The sanctions have led to severe shortages and sky-high prices as governments have enforced austere restrictions on its populations.  This week Russia upped the stakes again as it halted all flows of gas through its Nord Stream 1 pipeline, ostensibly for pipeline maintenance.  However, it is unclear if Russia will resume the gas flows on Saturday, September 3 as scheduled.  

The shortages have led to crippling five- to ten-fold price increases for both business and consumers and threaten the proper functioning of the European economy.  And with winter not far off, some governments are worried that there won't be enough energy to heat homes and keep plants running.  Whatever the military and geopolitical implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this energy crisis has the potential to completely devastate Europe's economy.  Will Europe be able to avoid a cold, bleak winter?

The horoscope of the European Union (Nov 1, 1993) offers some insight on this question.   We can see the multiple afflictions to the EU chart at the time of the invasion in February.  Not surprisingly, malefics Saturn and the Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu are very prominent in the chart at that time.  From its placement in the 7th house, Saturn 24 (Capricorn) was approaching its Saturn return and was within one degree of opposing the Ascendant (23 Cancer), which underlined the oppressive and unwanted nature of the invasion.  Since the 7th house symbolizes partners (both business and marital), Saturn's transit to the 7th house cusp represented a major setback with Russia, Europe's energy exporter and partner. 

The nodal transit to the complex alignment of Mars-Pluto-Moon reflected the sudden and explosive nature of the invasion.  Typically, transits of Rahu and Ketu to Mars are synonymous with violent or unsettled situations, and even more so when they simultaneously align with the Moon (population, emotions) and Pluto (power, coercion).   The fact that these transits occur with important chart points is a very big reason why Europe suddenly fell into its worst crisis since World War Two.

It is also worth noting that the EU horoscope was running the very difficult Rahu-Saturn dasha at the time.  Dasha lord Rahu is conjunct Mars and Pluto thus reflecting the greater likelihood of intense, coercive situations while Saturn is in a very close 90-degree alignment with Mars, Pluto and the Moon.  Saturn's minor dasha period therefore was more likely to feature hardship and war due to its nasty alignment with those three tense planets.

The transits for this week's pipeline shutdown also show significant affliction.  After stationing retrograde in June at 1 Aquarius, Saturn is now on its way back to exactly opposing the Ascendant, just two degrees from its position in February at 24 Capricorn.   Saturn (26 Capricorn) exactly squares Mercury (26 Libra) in the 4th house and reflects the current economic disruption in Europe.  The transit path of Saturn here was especially destructive.  After opposing the Ascendant at the time of invasion, it stationed exactly square the Mars-Pluto-Moon alignment in June in the first degree of Aquarius.  It doesn't get much worse than that.   While it is certainly possible that Russia may not fully resume gas supplies to Europe after this scheduled halt expires on Sep 3, the short term aspects (esp. involving Mars) don't look bad enough for that kind of nightmare scenario.   Perhaps supplies will be reinstated but with the ongoing threat of being cut again. 

The larger problem is that Saturn is due to station direct at 24 Capricorn in late October.   The Uranus and Rahu conjunction at the top of the chart also form hard aspects to the Ascendant and are no doubt also part of this scenario of difficulty.  With Saturn and Uranus due to form a close square in October, it seems quite likely that the situation in Europe will remain precarious for several more weeks, and it could well get worse on this difficult square aspect.  We could finally see some improvement by November after Saturn resumes its normal forward motion, however, as it moves away from its alignment with the EU Ascendant.  . 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks are drifting lower this week as the market realizes the Fed is unlikely to reverse its rate hikes this year.  While the outlook doesn't look very encouraging in the near term, we should not be surprised if this week's Mercury-Jupiter alignment coincides with a rally attempt at some point.  While it seems unlikely to alter the down trend, it could bring some upside in the coming days.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Markets await Powell's Jackson Hole speech

(24 August 2022) Stocks look more vulnerable here in the waning dog days of summer as inflation remains a primary concern, especially in Europe.   Much of the summer rally had been predicated on the assumption that inflation may have peaked in the US and that this could pave the way to a more dovish Fed that would be less hawkish in its commitment to interest rate hikes.  While US inflation has eased off somewhat, European inflation continues to rise as energy prices have reached a crisis level given the ongoing disruption from the Ukraine-Russia war.

But all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday as he delivers his annual speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  Powell is expected to reveal his current plan to tackle inflation and whether or not the Fed will to slow the pace of rate hikes starting with its next FOMC meeting on September 21.   Being creatures of liquidity, investors will be hoping for any dovish signals from Powell, perhaps as a response to some recent data that suggest the economy may be slowing.  If, however, Powell reiterates his commitment to reducing inflation to the Fed's long term target of 2%, the market could sell-off on the prospect of significantly higher interest rates down the road.

A look at the horoscope of the Federal Reserve reflects the potential precariousness of the current economic situation.  Typically, the economy tends to do well this chart is strengthened by Jupiter and other benefics as it reflects a Fed that is successfully managing an economic expansion.  When the chart is afflicted by Saturn or other malefics, however, that can mean a more stressful time for the Fed and greater economic uncertainty.

The main problem here is that Saturn (27 Capricorn) conjoins the 8th house cusp (25 Capricorn) representing obstacles, setbacks and scandals.  Saturn is usually a difficult energy whenever it closely aligns with a planet or cusp and that is very much the case here since the 8th house is considered the most malefic house in the chart.  Saturn is currently retrograde and is due to station direct on October 23 at 24 degrees of sidereal Capricorn.  This will be just one degree past an exact conjunction with the 8th house cusp and a 150-degree alignment with the Ascendant.  Regardless of the immediate aftermath of the Jackson Hole speech, it does suggest the Fed is entering a period of higher stress for the next two months or so while the Saturn alignment is in range. 

The outlook isn't entirely negative, however, as retrograde Jupiter will be approaching a conjunction with the 10th house cusp (MC) in October and November.  This is a very positive influence and suggests the Fed will eventually assume a more positive leadership role where it could be praised for its actions.  While the Jupiter influence is very strong here, it does not override the likely damage from Saturn.  No doubt, the Fed will encounter both positive and negative situations as a result of these dueling influences.  I do suspect that Saturn's negative influence is more likely to manifest first since Saturn will resume normal forward motion first, while Jupiter will resume its forward motion on November 23. 

 

In terms of the immediate reaction to Friday's Jackson Hole speech, the Mars-Sun square looks quite tense and suggests an atmosphere of caution is more likely to prevail.  Along with the Moon-Mars conjunction, this alignment increases the likelihood of a negative market reaction to Powell's speech.   Also, we should note the presence of benefics Mercury and Venus in the chart on Friday.  Although usually positive, Mercury is placed at the very bottom of the chart opposite the 10th house and hints at "unfortunate communication" while the Venus opposition to Saturn signifies restraint and loss.  It therefore seems less likely that Powell will suddenly turn dovish and pause the rate hikes.  We shall see how it all unfolds.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Recession risk increasing as Fed maintains tighter monetary policy

(17 August 2022) As the rising cost of living forces consumers to cut back on spending, it seems the risk of recession is increasing.  The economic outlook remains very uncertain despite encouraging signs that inflation may be moderating while employment continues to grow, albeit largely from part-time jobs.  Nonetheless, recent data is very much a mixed bag.  This week's housing report came in below expectations and July's ISM manufacturing data extended its downward slide, even if it not quite showing a contraction.   Perhaps more worrying is that China's stubborn adherence to a zero Covid policy is wreaking havoc on the world's second largest economy as this week's data was weaker than expected. 

As we know, Saturn is the planet that is most closely associated with recession.  As the planet that symbolizes caution, pessimism and loss, Saturn is usually prominent by aspect and sign placement during times when the economy is slowing.  During the initial Covid outbreak and subsequent lockdowns in early 2020, Saturn was doubly prominent since it entered the sign of sidereal Capricorn and conjoined Pluto.  At the time of the financial meltdown in 2008, Saturn formed a very rare, simultaneous alignment with Uranus, Chiron and Neptune.

Therefore, if there is going to be a recession, we should also see some similar Saturn influences in the transit chart.   In previous posts, I have documented how this year's slowdown was correlated with the Saturn-Neptune-Rahu-Jupiter alignment that was within range between April and July.  While that alignment has now separated and exerts a diminishing influence, we can see that Saturn is due to form an alignment with Uranus in October.  The Saturn-Uranus square will be closest at the time of the Saturn direct station on October 23.  While this single aspect may not not sufficient to signal a recession, it nonetheless increases the likelihood of further slowing, if not an outright recession by that date. 

Another intriguing perspective on the US economy can be found in the inauguration horoscope of the current president.  The inauguration chart represents the "re-birth" of the country every four years and thus generates a map of its changing planetary fortunes, both for the president and the nation as a whole.   What stands out here is that the this fall's Saturn-Uranus square will almost exactly align with the natal Mercury (24 Capricorn) in the inauguration chart.  This is very difficult alignment that greatly increases the likelihood of problems and setbacks for the US during October. 

While the Saturn-Uranus square is in itself a negative influence for the economy and the stock market, its impact on natal Mercury could further undermine economic activity since Mercury symbolizes commerce, transportation and communication.  Since all three areas are directly connected with the economy, any specific damage to one of them would have a detrimental effect on GDP. 

Mercury's symbolism is not limited to the economy, however, as this affliction could also coincide with tension and conflict associated with the midterm elections slated for early November.  At its most general level, Mercury represents rational thought processes such as counting and calculation, so its affliction by Saturn and Uranus could translate into unusually divisive troubles related to the often contested terrain of US politics.

Besides this Saturn-Uranus aspect, Saturn will also form some difficult aspects in the inauguration chart in the spring of 2023.  First, Saturn (5 Aquarius) will align with Pluto (5 Capricorn) in the winter of 2023, although this alignment may only have a limited recessionary impact since it will be relatively short-lived. 

The more worrisome aspect occurs from May to July when Saturn stations retrograde in the 11th house of income at 13 Aquarius and thereby casts its full-strength 3rd house/60 degree aspect on the dangerous Mars-Uranus conjunction in the 1st house at 12 Aries.   While Mars does have any direct connection with the economy, it is associated with military action.  The Saturn influence here upon Mars-Uranus suggests increased risk of major economic losses from military conflict.  And with Pluto also conjoining the natal Sun at that time, there is an additional layer of affliction here that could bring an unstable geopolitical situation that further undermines economic confidence. 

All in all, these different Saturn influences over the next year or so greatly increase the risk of a recession in the US.  Even if the Fed ultimately succeeds in taming inflation, unemployment is likely to rise significantly by next year while the stock market should trend lower. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.