Congress in debt ceiling stalemate as Mercury turns retrograde

(28 September 2021) Negotiations in Washington, DC ground to halt today as the two parties could not agree on a way forward to raise the debt ceiling.  With the Republicans digging in their heels against a bill which would raise the debt ceiling, odds of a government shutdown were rising before the Thursday deadline. 

And if things really go off the rails, there is there the possibility that the government will run out of money as the deadline for a US debt default is October 18.   And just to ratchet up the pressure some more, liberal Democrats are now threatening to vote against the bipartisan infrastructure bill if centrist Democrats vote against Biden's larger $3.5 Trillion stimulus bill. 

The melodrama in Washington shouldn't be too surprising given that Mercury turned retrograde in the early morning hours on Monday.  As we know, things often go haywire whenever Mercury, the planet of communication and commerce, reverses its normal forward motion and turns retrograde and moves backwards in the sky during its three week cycle. 

Against this backdrop of government dysfunction, US stocks tumbled 2% today as bond yields spiked on fears that rising inflation would force the Fed to tighten its monetary policy sooner than expected.  The current pullback is more or less in line with our expectations since we have seen an intensification of bearish Saturn energy in recent weeks.   Stocks peaked in early September just a few days before the exact Jupiter-Pluto alignment.  Once that bullish alignment began to lose its strength, the more bearish influence of Saturn took over.  Saturn is due to form a 45-degree alignment with Neptune in October just as it stations direct on October 10. 

Saturn alignments with outer planets like Neptune tend to be bearish, even if the aspect is a minor one, as is the case here with the 45-degree angle.  The current configuration is more likely to be bearish because Saturn is just days away from its annual direct station.   Planetary stations are especially powerful and can be pivotal market events for good or ill depending on the nature of the planet involved and the direction of the prevailing trend.  Saturn tends to be more bearish around the times of its stations (both retrograde and direct) while Mercury has a bearish bias near the date of its retrograde station.

This week could see additional selling as Mars opposes Chiron and Mercury squares Pluto.  While the recently-discovered Chiron (in 1977) is not a traditional Vedic planet, it nonetheless has observable effects so that its positive aspects tend to be bullish while its negative aspects with malefics like Saturn and Mars tend to be bearish.  And while neither Mercury nor Pluto are malefic planets, the square aspects can be tense and thereby increases the odds of some negative fallout later in the week, especially in light of the background Saturn influence. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

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China's Evergrande crisis roils markets

 (21 September 2021)  Global stock markets are sharply lower this week as Evergrande, China's second largest real estate developer, teeters on the brink of bankruptcy.  While default now seems inevitable, the more important question is whether the Chinese government will provide a bailout.  Even a partial bailout of its $300 billion in debt would help not only the 1.5 million customers who invested their savings in new homes, but it also would reduce the risk of financial contagion.  Evergrande is large enough that a disorderly default would damage the Chinese economy and therefore could have ramifications for investors all over the world. 

The Evergrande crisis can be seen as a part of an ongoing attempt of the Xi government to tighten regulations throughout the financial sector.  Earlier this year, the CCP imposed stricter anti-trust regulations on tech and internet companies such as Alibaba.  The regulatory initiative is seen as a part of a campaign to bring the free-wheeling Chinese economy under closer political control by the CCP. 

Chinese stocks have suffered the consequences of the new restrictions this year as stocks have fallen more than 25% from their February high.  The decline can be seen in the horoscope of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE - December 19, 1990, 9.30 a.m.).  Very quickly we can see the problem in the chart: Saturn, the planet of loss and constraint, is exactly conjunct the Ascendant at 13 degrees of sidereal Capricorn.  Saturn is the most bearish of all planets so its alignments usually coincide with declines, especially when they involve important chart points like the Sun, Moon or the Ascendant. 

Interestingly, Chinese stocks began their long descent in February just as Saturn was also transiting the Ascendant during its normal forward motion.  Now retrograde, it is once again crossing over the Ascendant and as stocks are similarly mired in a period of pessimism.  

We can also see that the apparent peak of this crisis is occurring while three malefics, Saturn, Rahu, and Mars, are all in 120 degree alignments with the SSE Ascendant. In the short term, further downside is possible when Mars exactly aligns with Saturn and the Ascendant later this week and early next week.  Chinese stocks are likely to remain under pressure for a while yet since Saturn isn't due to end its retrograde cycle until October 10.  A rebound of some size becomes much more likely after Saturn makes its final conjunction with the SSE Ascendant in November. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Given this week's ongoing Saturn-Rahu-Mars alignment, US and global stocks are also vulnerable to further downside in the coming days.  Tomorrow's FOMC statement could well see a relief rally, however, as Mercury enters sidereal Libra and aligns with Jupiter and the Moon.  But downside risk will be somewhat elevated as we approach the Mercury retrograde station next Monday. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

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Stocks fall on possible Biden tax hike

 (14 September 2021) After their relentless summer rally, US stocks have trended lower in recent days as investors have begun to factor in the possibility of significant tax hikes needed to pay for the ambitious $3.5 Trillion Biden budget proposal. While it is far from clear if the proposal will pass the Senate in its current form given the Democrats narrow majority, markets generally don't like taxes as they directly impact the corporate bottom line which is the key driver of stock prices.  This market weakness is not too surprising given the current major planetary alignments that I outlined last week.

Stocks started selling the day after the Labor Day holiday while Jupiter was approaching its closest alignment with Pluto.  I thought we might have seen a bit more upside last week from the bullish entry of Venus into Libra on Monday, September 6.  But while some international markets were up on Monday, any positive influence was already largely spent by the US opening on Tuesday. The theoretical maximum of the bullish influence occurred on Friday, September 10 but stocks drifted mostly lower that day.  Since both Jupiter and Pluto are slow-moving planets, their moment of maximum influence should be understood as a multi-day window rather than one specific day. 

As Jupiter is now separating from its 30-degree alignment with Pluto, there may be less bullish sentiment to keep a bid under stocks.  In addition, Saturn seems likely to become more powerful in the near term as it approaches its 45-degree alignment with Neptune. 

While neither of these alignments conform to standard aspecting rules in traditional Vedic astrology, they nonetheless are worth watching.  Saturn alignments with outer planets like Neptune are often bearish in their influence, especially when either planet is near a planetary station.  That is very much the case here as Saturn is backing into its direct station slated for October 10. 

And if we examine the NYSE horoscope, we can see the pessimistic Saturn influence is also likely to be further heightened.  Saturn is due to end its retrograde cycle at 12 Capricorn and this will form an exact 135-degree alignment with the natal Mars in the chart.  Since both Mars and Saturn are malefic planets, there is a higher likelihood of declines around the time of the direct station in early October.  

The periods near Saturn stations -- both direct and retrograde -- aren't always bearish but the odds shift significantly towards the bears whenever it aligns closely with another planet. 

Therefore, the next few weeks could see some increased volatility.  Caveat Emptor. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

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September arrives with stocks at all-time highs

(7 September 2021) As the summer holiday season yields to the more sobering winds of September, financial markets await a new catalyst.  Buoyed by an accommodative Fed and the prospect of the economic re-opening,  stock markets have moved higher over the past several months with few significant interruptions.  While valuations may be becoming stretched by conventional measures, most investors are reluctant to sell given the absence of any viable alternatives with interest rates pinned near zero. 

And it's hard to blame them.  Inflation may be at its highest level in ten years but that is of little concern for the Fed since it has pre-emptively declared that inflation is "transitory".  Even though the cost of housing and food continues to spiral upwards, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in no hurry to reduce emergency QE asset purchases, let alone actually raise interest rates.  Powell needs to keep the liquidity taps turned on full if there is to be any chance to reduce unemployment back to its pre-pandemic levels, no matter how high inflation may rise.  Stock markets have mostly accepted this logic and have tagged along for the ride.

The current planetary picture offers some insights into this bull market rally.  Despite a mixed session today following Labor Day, some clear bullish energy is evident in the close Jupiter-Pluto alignment.  This 30-degree alignment has been tightening over the past few weeks and is one important reason why stocks have generally melted higher.  The strength of this bullish pairing has even neutralized most bearish aspects, including the fairly close Saturn-Rahu aspect.  While assessing the relative influence of potentially offsetting aspects is more art than science, a glimpse into the Nasdaq horoscope provides another window on this matter. 






One reason why the Jupiter-Pluto alignment may have outweighed all other potentially offsetting aspects is that it is activating some key points in the Nasdaq chart.  First, transiting Jupiter (0 Aquarius) is conjunct natal Rahu.  This is a very bullish pairing since Jupiter's bullish influence is usually magnified by Rahu (North Lunar Node).   This is even more likely to be the case since natal Rahu is well-placed in the 10th/11th houses in conjunction with the Sun. 

While the lunar nodes (Rahu, Ketu) are considered natural malefics in Vedic astrology, any involvement with Jupiter is more likely to convert them into positive influences.  And this is perhaps more likely to be the case here since Jupiter is aligned with Ketu (South Lunar Node).  This amounts to a double amplification of Jupiter's bullish energy.

Interestingly, transiting Ketu (11 Scorpio) is approaching its conjunction with natal Jupiter (10 Scorpio).  This is another potentially bullish influence that may partially explain the relentless rally in stocks, especially in large cap tech stocks.  While spiritual Ketu is a less reliable bullish influence on prices than materialistic Rahu, the involvement with Jupiter here nonetheless tilts the scales in favor of positive outcomes. 

But the question, of course, is how long will this rally last?  Here the planets offer some useful clues.  First, we know that the ongoing Jupiter-Pluto alignment will peak this Friday, September 10.  Typically, bullish Jupiter alignments tend to lose their bullish energy shortly after this exact peak, often within days.  However, this reversal dynamic can vary significantly depending on other factors. 

Also, we can see that transiting Jupiter will begin to separate from its bullish conjunction with natal Rahu next week as it slips back into Capricorn.  While it will remain in close bullish conjunction, this is likely to be a waning influence in the coming days.  And it is much the same story with transiting Ketu.  Ketu (True Node) will conjoin natal Jupiter late next week but it will begin to separate in subsequent days.  This will likely be another diminishing source of bullish sentiment.  Moreover, we can see that transiting Ketu will conjoin the very malefic 8th house cusp later in September.  This conjunction looks more bearish, especially with Neptune in close proximity.

All three of these bullish Jupiter influences are therefore very close to their peaks.  This suggests that the available bullish energy may become less readily available as we go deeper into September and October.  The carefree days of summer may soon be behind us.  


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

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