Stocks rally on bipartisan infrastructure deal

(24 June 2021) Stocks pushed to new all-time highs today on news of an agreement on a pared-down Senate infrastructure deal.  President Biden threw his support behind the bipartisan deal but added that he would only sign it if the Democrats' ambitious reconciliation bill is also passed in the coming months.   Investors welcomed the more concrete evidence of fiscal stimulus to keep the recovery going as special Covid unemployment benefits are now ending in a number of states.

We can see the outlines of this legislative success fairly clearly in Biden's horoscope.  Jupiter stationed retrograde this past Sunday, June 20 at 8 Aquarius.  This set up a very helpful alignment with his Moon (8 Aries), Uranus (9 Taurus) and Ascendant (10 Scorpio).  The Jupiter station is much more powerful (i.e. positive) than a simple Jupiter transit since it has no forward motion for approximately 5-10 days.   Therefore, it resonates with the natal planet for much longer than would otherwise be the case. 

But now that Jupiter is retrograde, the beneficial effects of this alignment may well weaken in the coming days.  This suggests that Biden is more likely to encounter more challenging situations where outcomes may be less to his liking.  And since the president's horoscope is a stand-in for the country as a whole, we could infer the possibility of less constructive events unfolding as we head into July.  

As I have noted previously, we still await the July 1 T-square alignment involving Mars, Saturn and Uranus. This is a tense configuration involving two natural malefics, Mars and Saturn.  One malefic planet in a three-planet pattern would tilt towards negative outcomes, but two malefics significantly increases the likelihood of negative outcomes, both in terms of probability and in scope.

Moreover, we can see that the Mars-Saturn-Uranus pattern sets up on Biden's natal Mars (19 Libra).  This looks like a very stressful time that is likely to involve some kind of major hardship or conflict or perhaps even a military-type action.  Biden's chart is further burdened by the conjunction of Rahu (16 Taurus) to his natal Saturn.   Saturn rules the 3rd and 4th houses in his chart and therefore there is an increased risk of some kind of interruption or damage involving transportation (3rd house) or natural disasters (4th house).  Biden himself may come under intense pressure or stress. 


Weekly Market Forecast

While this week's Sun-Jupiter aspect was tilted in favour of the bulls and suggested some upside, the extent of the gains has been surprising.  Next week seems likely to be another story, however, as the Mars influence on Saturn looks bearish. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.


Photo Credit: C-Span.org

Fed signals possible rate hikes amid higher inflation

 (17 June 2021) So it turns out that inflation may be a problem after all.   After Wednesday's FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted that inflation is likely to run hotter than expected this year.  No kidding.  US home prices have increased an average of 15% since last year, with comparable rises in many countries around the world. 

While he insisted that it is likely to be transitory and will soon return to the 2% target, the Fed nonetheless moved up its timeline for two rate hikes in 2023.   Markets reacted negatively to this more hawkish stance as stocks and commodities fell while the US dollar rallied strongly. 

Stocks have generally slipped lower this week following Monday's Saturn-Uranus square aspect.  As with most aspects involving the the planet Saturn, this bearish pairing often coincides with periods of pessimism.  Saturn-Uranus hard aspects happen only infrequently with the squares occurring about once every 20 years.  Previously square aspects marked both interim and major market tops in 1977 and 2000, respectively. 

Given their intertwining retrograde cycles, Saturn and Uranus form three exact square aspects over a one-year period.  As I have noted previously, the first Saturn-Uranus in this series occurred in February-March and coincided exactly with the start of a 5% pullback.  After this second June square, a third is due in December 2021.

The fact that there are three Saturn-Uranus squares this year suggests that a major market top is now more likely in 2021.  That means we could see the beginning of bear market this year that extends into 2022.   In the short term, markets may remain more vulnerable to declines in the coming weeks.  Due to their low velocities, the Saturn-Uranus square may require a third triggering planet to more fully release its bearish payload. 

That time may well be fast approaching as Mars will oppose Saturn and square Uranus on July 1.   While there is still a chance that this second Saturn-Uranus square may not deliver any fireworks, the inclusion of Mars into the mix should give investors an additional reason for caution. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Inflation 2021: a repeat of that 70s show?

(10 June 2021) As many countries inch closer to economic re-opening, financial markets are keeping a close eye on rising inflation.  This morning's May CPI data for the US rose 5% on an annual basis, the highest since 2008 just before the meltdown.  Core inflation also rose 3.8%, which as more than expected.   Of course, the question is whether this inflation will be "transitory", to use the Fed's term, or the start of a protracted period of rising prices perhaps along the lines of the dark days of the Carter administration in the 1970s

Certainly, the Fed's transitory view is entirely plausible since there was bound to be a hangover from the huge fiscal and monetary stimulus after the Covid crisis. The bond market seems to be in this camp as yields have continued to trend downwards over the past few weeks.  And despite today's high inflation number, yields fell again with the 10-year closing at 1.45%.  If inflation was likely to increase down the road, yields would be rising rather than falling as traders would demand more premium to cover any anticipated loss of value.

And yet the planets are hinting at troubles ahead.  Saturn is due to form its second exact 90-degree square alignment with Uranus his Monday, June 14.  Readers will recall the first Saturn-Uranus square in mid-February coincided with an interim top in the stock market within one day.   Due to their respective retrograde periods, Saturn forms three square aspects with Uranus over the course of a year or so.  So next week will see the second square, with the third and final square due in December. 

All square aspects involving Saturn carry an elevated risk of some downside, although they don't always coincide with selling.  In a previous post, I analyzed the series of Saturn-Uranus squares from 1999-2000.   The first square in this series was bearish and marked the beginning of a 10% decline, while the second square lacked any clear direction.  The third square in April 2000 again coincided with a pullback.  Indeed, the extended Saturn-Uranus square period more or less coincided with the top of the 18-year long bull market. 

Interestingly, the preceding Saturn-Uranus square in 1976-1977 was also bearish.  While it did not coincide with the start of a bear market, it was nonetheless a difficult time for the market during the period of 1970s stagflation.  Markets reached an interim top in March 1976 of 4700 on the Dow during final year of the Ford administration but then declined more than 30% to 3100 by early 1978 under Jimmy Carter.

The first Saturn-Uranus square took place in July 1976 after which the market fell 10% over the next 5 months.  Stocks continued to fall to new lows through the second and third Saturn-Uranus squares in February and April of 1977.  Stocks eventually formed an interim bottom in February 1978. 

Could history repeat here in 2021 as Saturn and Uranus again form a tense 90 degree angle?   While history never exactly repeats, it does often rhyme.  The presence of two more Saturn-Uranus squares this year definitely creates a more challenging outlook for the stock market.  And with inflation ticking higher just as it did in the late 1970s, it is tempting to think that inherent economic pessimism of the Saturn-Uranus aspect could well manifest again in the coming months.  In the near term, next Monday's Saturn-Uranus aspect bears close watching as stocks are trading at all-time highs.  While bulls have the momentum on their side, further upside looks somewhat less likely in the aftermath of this aspect.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

US stocks mixed on inflation concerns

(3 June 2021) US stocks have moved sideways over the past two weeks as inflation risks continue to weigh on sentiment.  While the economic outlook is encouraging for 2021 amid re-opening and the successful vaccination campaign, some uncertainty remains.  Government income support is gradually being withdrawn in coming weeks as many states are ending the unemployment benefit top-up in an effort to get people back to work.  The winding down of fiscal stimulus could thus temporarily weaken consumer demand and undermine the strength of the recovery.

Despite rising inflation, stocks did manage to rebound in late May, albeit to a lower high.  I thought we might have seen a bit more volatility at that time, especially given the Saturn retrograde station on May 23.  That said, we have seen some modest downside this week in the wake of Mercury's retrograde station on May 29.  While retrograde stations aren't always bearish, they nonetheless carry an increased risk of downside. 

The possibility of negative outcomes is further elevated if the stationing planet (Mercury, in this case) aligns with a malefic such as Mars.  That is in fact what we has occurred this week as retrograde Mercury formed an exact 30-degree alignment with Mars.  While the pullback has been small, it is a good example of how these retrograde stations can work in forecasting the market.

Mars again figures prominently tomorrow (Friday) and early next week as it opposes Pluto.  Since Mars is often a bearish influence, there is a possibility for some further selling. 

I would also note that the Mars-Pluto opposition will activate the natal Mercury (3 Cancer) in the USA horoscope.  This is an additional negative because Mercury is a significator of commerce, trading and the stock market.   Communications and transportation may also be subject to increased disruption by this transit.  Given recent events, this Mars-Mercury transits raises the possibility of further ransomware attacks on US infrastructure. 

While there is a growing downside risk for financial markets over the next several months, it is quite possible that a major sell-off may first require the Saturn-Uranus square on June 14 to act as a trigger. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.