India's Covid crisis

(29 April 2021)  Tragedy continues to unfold in India this week as Covid infections are setting new record highs with each passing day.  Official statistics list 379,000 new infections and more than 3000 deaths today but experts suggest that the real numbers may be several times higher than that.  Many countries are now sending relief supplies of oxygen and vaccine ingredients to help India meet the challenge of this deadly second wave. 

With the vaccination program still in its early stages, the ongoing crisis seems likely to continue for the short term at least.  As I noted in a post two weeks ago, the horoscope of India (Aug 15, 1947) is highly afflicted until at least late May.  At that time, Saturn is due to turn retrograde and thus it would begin to separate from its opposition aspect from Venus, which is the all-important lagnesh (1st house ruler) in the chart.

We can also see the contours of the current crisis from the perspective of the swearing-in chart of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019.  The moment of the oath-taking ceremony is astrologically significant as it highlights the influences that are likely to manifest during the term of the incoming administration.  PM Modi was sworn-in for his second term at 7.08 p.m. on 30 May 2019 in New Delhi.  While the swearing-in horoscope reflects Modi's potential political fortunes, it also symbolizes future trends for the country as a whole. 

The chart itself is hardly auspicious for his second term.  With Scorpio rising, lagnesh Mars is situated on the 8th house cusp conjunct malefic Rahu.  This is a very difficult placement.  According to traditional Vedic astrology, the 8th house represents major setbacks and disappointments and includes considerations of chronic diseases that involve notions of life and death.  That definitely seems to be the case here in 2021 as Modi tries to cope with a pandemic that is out of control.

The transit picture shows that Mars is quickly approaching a return to its natal position at 15 Gemini and the 8th house cusp.  Since this is a poor natal placement, the upcoming Mars conjunction is likely to highlight unwanted developments in the struggle against the virus.  The date of the exact Mars-Mars conjunction is May 8 and could be a time of maximum stress for Modi and the country as a whole.   It is therefore possible that things could get worse in the short term. 

We should also note that Mars represents both the 1st house (the nation as a whole) and the 6th house, representing the health of the nation.  Therefore, this difficult transit of Mars through the 8th house has heightened implications for the health crisis that is confronting India. 

We can also also see that the Lunar Nodes are prominent in the next several weeks as Ketu conjoins the Ascendant while Rahu conjoins the 7th house and the Sun (16 Taurus).  This slower-moving influence is a major affliction and reflects the gravity of the crisis on the national vitality (Sun).  While Mars transits usually pass fairly quickly, transits involving Rahu and Ketu are more fundamental and are typically found in times of extreme stress. 

The upcoming solar eclipse on June 10 is a date worth watching.  The eclipse takes place at 25 degrees of Taurus and therefore conjoins the natal Mercury, which happens to rule the 11th house (Virgo) of gains and healing (i.e. 6th house from the 6th house).  A breakthrough solution is therefore more likely on or around this date.  Based on this chart interpretation, India could see a sizable improvement of conditions after 1) the Mars conjunction on May 8 and 2) after the Saturn retrograde station on May 23 and finally 3) after the solar eclipse on June 10. 


 Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks have generally remained buoyant over the past week as investors focus on the promise of new stimulus from President Biden and an ever-obliging Federal Reserve. 

As bullish as the month of April was, the month of May is likely to be a different story as market seasonality weakens and Saturn becomes predominant as it is aspected by Mars and Rahu (North Lunar Node).  With Saturn strengthening and Jupiter weakening, markets are unlikely to continue their melt-up for much longer.  Monday's Sun-Saturn square could well be the first taste of May's bitter fruit. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Biden plan to hike capital gains tax surprises markets

 (22 April 2021)  Stocks fell suddenly this afternoon on reports that President Biden intends to nearly double the capital gains tax for wealthy investors.  While Biden has made no secret of his intention to increase taxes on the rich, the news caught the market off-guard.   Stocks had been fairly choppy already this week as renewed virus concerns has damaged the economic outlook in several countries. 

As I noted in last week's post, stocks are increasingly vulnerable to declines in the weeks ahead as the bullish influence of Jupiter may be starting to weaken.  US stocks have been quite buoyant thus far in April as Jupiter approached its alignment with Pluto.  While this 30-day degree alignment is not a traditional full-strength Vedic aspect, it nonetheless has coincided with some optimism.  After its exact alignment on Tuesday, April 20, however, its positive energy may begin to diminish. 

In addition, we can see that the Jupiter-Pluto alignment also aligned exactly with the Jupiter-Pluto square in the horoscope of the NYSE.   Now that transiting Jupiter (3 Aquarius) is separating from its conjunction with natal Pluto (2 Aquarius) and its 120-degree aspect with natal Jupiter (2 Libra), further gains in US markets seem less likely. 

The other side of the equation is that bearish Saturn may be getting more powerful.   Stocks tend to fall when Saturn forms alignments with other planets, and slower-moving planets tend to do more damage than fasting-moving inner planets.  This is very much the case here as slow-moving Rahu (North Lunar Node) is aspecting Saturn through its 120-degree aspect.  However, we should note that Rahu and Saturn have been in close alignment for several weeks already while stocks have generally risen.  The absence of any major decline may be at least partially explained by the simultaneous presence of the bullish Jupiter-Pluto alignment. 

Also, slow-moving alignments involving malefic planets sometimes need a faster-moving third planet to act as a trigger.  In this respect, the current position of Mars (5 Gemini) is cause for concern.  Not only will Mars form an exact alignment with Rahu (17 Taurus) and Saturn (18 Capricorn) in May, but also because Mars is now casting its most malefic 8th house aspect upon Saturn (i.e. Capricorn is 8 signs/houses away from Gemini).   According to Vedic principles, Mars casts three full strength aspects: the square, the opposition and the 8th house (210 degree) aspect.   While all three aspects have a bearish bias, the 8th house aspect is said to have slightly more negative effects than the other two.   

Therefore, the next several weeks will see Saturn suffer a double affliction from malefics Rahu and Mars.  One saving grace may be that the Mars-Rahu-Saturn alignment does not directly impact any obvious point in the natal chart of the NYSE.  Nonetheless, the transit alignment alone may be sufficient to increase the probability of some downside in the markets.  Next week could well see a continuation of this week's choppiness, albeit with rising downside risk.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.


Photo credit: C-Span.org

Covid update: India confronts surge; US sees uptick in cases

  (15 April 2021) Despite the rollout of several effective vaccines across the world, there has been a troubling rise in Covid infections in recent weeks.  New, more contagious variants are being blamed for these second and third waves of the virus which has forced new lockdowns in Europe, Brazil, Canada and now India.  India's recent surge in cases to over 200,000 a day greatly exceeds the size of its first wave in 2020, as it now holds the distinction of recording the highest number of daily new cases of any country.

The US has also seen a modest rise in total cases in recent weeks, even though 37% of the population have received at least one dose of the vaccine.  The more transmissible variants from the UK, Brazil, South Africa and now India may well be driving the new infections as states such as Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania may soon be faced with the prospect of locking down yet again. 

If this is a race between the virus and the vaccines, it seems very possible that the virus will hold the upper hand for some time to come as only a handful of countries like Israel, the UK and the US are anywhere close to reaching herd immunity.  Therefore, it is more likely that Covid will continue to dominate public policy for the rest of the year.


India faces a second wave

On the India situation, we can see that current afflictions to the national horoscope (Aug 15, 1947, 00.00) could explain the recent rise in Covid cases.  The main source of the problem is the transiting opposition aspect from Saturn (18 Capricorn) to the five-planet conjunction of Mercury, Saturn, Pluto, Venus, and the Sun. 

This would be a very difficult transit influence for several areas of national welfare in any event, but especially for matters of well-being.  That is chiefly because of the close aspect between Saturn and Venus (22 Cancer), which rules the 1st house of the national "body" (Taurus) as well as the 6th house of health (Libra).  The current diminution of the national vitality may also be seen through Saturn's wider opposition to the Sun (28 Cancer). 

Matters of national health are therefore more likely to be a concern for the duration of this Saturn opposition aspect.   The Saturn influence seems likely to extend at least until its retrograde station on May 23, although it will remain within fairly close range of Venus for several weeks after that date.  With the Saturn station still five weeks away, it is quite likely that India's outbreak won't be brought under control in the short term and it could even worsen.

We can also see that Mars (0 Gemini) is fast approaching a conjunction with its natal position in the coming days.  Since Mars tends to reflect intense or fast-paced events, it is possible that the surge will reach a near-crisis level around the time of its exact conjunction, on April 26.  Of course, the Mars-Mars conjunction could also represent some other serious life-threatening or violent situation at that time, but we should be mindful of the possibilities given the circumstances of the current virus surge. 


US sees rise in Covid cases

The recent rise in cases in the US suggests that the pandemic isn't over just yet.  The horoscope of President Joe Biden offers one window on this question.  As the head of the US government, Biden's chart is a proxy for the US as a whole.  As I have noted in previous posts, Biden's horoscope is coming under major affliction by the upcoming Saturn station in May.  Saturn is due to station in a near-exact square aspect to his natal Mars which also rules the 1st house of the self/body and the 6th house of health.  The presence of an opposition aspect from Uranus to Biden's Mars intensifies this affliction.

I have previously speculated that this affliction could either represent a major setback involving the Covid pandemic or perhaps a personal health problem for Biden that could see him  leave office.  We may start to see which scenario is more likely when Mars conjoins his equal 8th house cusp and squares his Neptune around April 24-30.  This is a difficult placement as the 8th house implies obstacles and life-threatening situations while Mars-Neptune aspects may symbolize health issues more specifically.  Interestingly, the Mars transit impacts the horoscopes of India and Biden at approximately the same time. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks continue to melt-up here in April as investors are betting heavily on a strong US recovery funded by the Biden administration's infrastructure program.  I thought we might have seen more of a mix of influences, as the entry of Mars into Gemini earlier this week suggested a possible counterbalance to the late week bullish alignment of the Sun with Jupiter and Pluto. 

The exact alignment of Jupiter and Pluto occurs early next week (April 20) and should be seen as a potential turning point.  Typically, Jupiter alignments with slow-moving, outer planets like Pluto are bullish in the days leading up to their exact aspect but begin to fade in the days afterwards.  It is therefore possible we could see a weakening in the bullish sentiment as we approach the end of April. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Are stocks in a bubble?

(8 April 2021) If the Fed has its way, the party may never end.  US stocks cruised to a new record high today as the Federal Reserve again reassured investors that its easy-money policies would remain in place for the foreseeable future.  Stock indexes have nearly doubled from their Covid lockdown lows in March 2020 as the Fed's QE asset purchases has successfully enticed capital into riskier instruments like stocks in an effort to stimulate economic growth.

While the gains have been impressive over the past 12 months, some observers are beginning to wonder how long the good times can last.  All theses government and Fed interventions raise the possibility that the 12-year old bull market may have entered an unsustainable bubble stage.   And yet as inflation expectations rise alongside bond yields, it is still possible that the rally could continue for a while yet as the trapped Fed has no other options but to further inflate the bubble or else face systemic insolvency. 

The astrological outlook suggests the current rally may become increasingly vulnerable in 2021.  One important source of data in this respect is the horoscope of the benchmark S&P 500 Index (March 4, 1957).  The current dasha period for this chart is Rahu-Saturn which began in October 2020 and will last until August 2023.  Both of these planets are malefics  and therefore creates a more difficult background sentiment for the next two years. 

However, Rahu's influence may be improved by virtue of its placement in the 6th house where it tends to do well.  Also, its dispositor Venus is very well placed in conjunction with Mercury in the 10th house.  The close opposition aspect from Mars is a significant blemish, however.  Saturn has a more difficult temporal role in the chart as it aspects the Ascendant from the 7th house and forms a close square alignment with the Sun.  While other interpretations of Rahu-Saturn are possible, I would think this dasha period is a bearish influence overall and suggests that stocks are more likely to be lower than their current level by the end of the period in 2023.

Of course, we have seen little evidence thus far of any bearish influence as stocks have generally risen since the start of the dasha last October.  However, we are still in relatively early days of the three-year long dasha period.  In that sense, a brief rise in the market during a bearish dasha does not necessarily disprove the effect of dasha.  For that, we would have to examine the whole three-year period and weigh the outcomes against bearish expectations. 

Another way to look at long-term trends in stocks is through secondary progressions.  While these are a Western astrological technique, they nonetheless can provide useful information for identifying major trends.  The current secondary progressed chart has two major close alignments, one bullish and one bearish.  The bullish pairing of Venus (29Ar45) and Jupiter (28Le51) is just past exact and is now separating.  This is likely one reason for the strength in stocks over the past year.  However, these aspects tend to weaken as they separate so there may be much less upside for stocks going forward.  Some short term gains are still possible as progressed Venus enters the bullish first degree of Taurus in the summer, but generally this looks like a waning bullish influence.

On the other hand, progressed Mercury is approaching its 150 degree alignment with Saturn, both natal and progressed.  Mercury (20Ar59) is retrograde so it is backing into its alignment over the next year or two.  As a general rule, alignments tend to strengthen as they approach exactitude. Since Mercury-Saturn aspects are bearish, a strengthening of this aspect would likely translate into a weaker stock market.  

Since both the dasha period and the prevailing progressed alignments lean bearish over the next year or two, it seems more likely that the bull market may be fast approaching its climax.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have pushed higher over the past week as bond yields may have started to moderate and even reverse their previous upward trend.  The early week gain appeared to coincide with the bullish entry of Jupiter into Aquarius, which also carried gold and bonds higher.  While I expected gold and bonds to rally, I thought stocks might have been more volatile on the Mars-Neptune square, but so far the bulls remain in firm control. 

The exact Mars-Neptune aspect occurs tomorrow (Friday) so there is a possibility for some downside.   Next week is a mix of influences.  The early week entry of Mars into Gemini is decidedly bearish, however, although some of the negative energy may be offset by the alignment of the Sun with Jupiter and  Pluto. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.