Dow hits record high 30,000 on vaccine optimism and Biden transition

(25 November 2020) Stocks extended their November rally this week as the latest vaccine announcement reassured investors that the end of the pandemic is now within reach.  Markets also cheered the start of the formal transition process of the incoming Biden administration as President Trump finally backed off from his previous objections.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time record high on Tuesday as it closed above 30,000 for the first time.  

Despite the lockdowns and widespread economic hardship, stocks have rallied off the March low on unprecedented intervention by the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world.  Markets are now anticipating a return to normal growth in 2021 post-Covid, albeit with continuing support from the Fed.

From an astrological view, the ongoing strength in stocks in recent days is not all that surprising.  As I noted in last week's post, the once-a-year entry of Jupiter into sidereal Capricorn late last week is often accompanied by optimism which can take prices higher, if only briefly.  What is less certain is how long this positive Jupiter influence can last. 

Previously, I suggested that Jupiter's entry into Capricorn meant that it was also approaching its conjunction with Saturn on December 21.  This is likely to be a less favourable influence on market sentiment since Saturn is associated with caution and disappointment.  But since both planets move quite slowly, the specific time window when declines can occur is more difficult to predict. 

For another perspective, let's take a look at the natal chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, launched May 26, 1896 after the close of trading.  Quickly, we can see why November has been a good month for US stocks.  Transiting Jupiter (1 Capricorn) aligns very closely with Venus (1 Taurus) and Mercury (1 Gemini).  Usually, this sort of Jupiter alignment is bullish and we can see that the Dow has hit a record this week just as the alignments are exact.  In addition to the bullish Jupiter aspects, there is an absence of any strong malefic influences at this time.

But we should note that optimism usually begins to diminish in the days following an exact Jupiter aspect so it is unclear how much higher stocks could go in the short term.  The fading influence of Jupiter here suggests the market rally may be due for a breather, especially as Jupiter conjoins Saturn in December.  Any negative effects of the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction could well be compounded by the approaching Mars-Ketu alignment which will be exact in the second week of December. 

However, one saving grace is that the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction and the Mars-Ketu alignment will not form close aspects with any key planets in the natal chart.  Rahu is conjunct with Neptune, of course, but this is not an especially strong influence in my view.  This suggests that any pullback we may see in the days ahead is unlikely to cause much lasting damage to the market rally. 


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Markets weigh vaccine hopes against new lockdowns

  (18 November 2020) Stock markets have been fairly positive in recent days as the Moderna vaccine news gave investors more reason to hope for a return to normal in 2021.  Some of that optimism had faded by Wednesday's session, however, as new lockdowns were announced in various cities and states across the US and Europe.  So while markets tend to look 6-12 months into the future, the prospect of fresh lockdowns challenges the bullish view of a slow but steady improvement in the economy. 

Stocks have been mostly bullish in November, in part due to the conjunction of Jupiter with Pluto which was exact on Nov 12.  Jupiter is a bullish planet, of course, and its conjunctions with outer planets (Uranus, Neptune, Chiron and Pluto) usually coincide with up trends in the market.  The bullish effects of the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction are usually felt 5-10 days before the date of the exact conjunction and a lesser number of days afterwards, perhaps 2-5 days.  In last week's post, I thought we would see some lingering positive effects of the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction carry over into this week and Monday was positive.  It also coincided with the typically bullish entry of Venus into Libra. 

But sentiment has soured somewhat over the past two days, most likely due to the simultaneous alignment of the Sun and Venus with Saturn.  Alignments involving bearish Saturn tend to coincide with declines, especially when the aspects are close.  The Sun and Venus made a near-exact alignment with Saturn today so that negative influence could diminish as soon as tomorrow.


Jupiter in Capricorn

Tomorrow is also potentially significant since it is the day that Jupiter enters the sign of Capricorn, according the sidereal/Indian zodiac.  This sets up a sort of good news/bad news scenario.   The good news is that Jupiter changes signs about once a year and it often marks positive market developments, if only briefly.  Just as the Venus sign change on Monday coincided with some upside, there is some reason to think that we could see some upside Thursday and/or Friday from this Jupiter effect.  Tomorrow is a tougher call, however, since the bearish Sun-Venus-Saturn alignment will still be quite close, especially in the morning when the Moon will conjoin Saturn.  Nonetheless, the prospect of a Jupiter sign change suggests that some gains are possible late this week.

However, the bad news is Jupiter's entry into Capricorn means it will eventually conjoin Saturn, with the exact conjunction taking place on December 21.   All other things being equal, Jupiter-Saturn alignments carry an elevated downside risk.  Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions occur every 20 years are associated with bear markets or at least bull market tops.  The previous Jupiter-Saturn conjunction occurred in May 2000, just as stocks were beginning to retreat from their tech bubble peak earlier that year.

Before that, Jupiter conjoined Saturn in July 1981 during a recession when the market in the middle of a down trend.  Of course, there are always exceptions.  The preceding conjunction of February 1961 coincided with a rising market so it is important to think of these alignments probabilistically.  Nonetheless, the upcoming Jupiter-Saturn conjunction is another reason to be skeptical about the current rally, especially given the range of headwinds the market now faces.


Jupiter could benefit Trump

The entry of Jupiter into Capricorn could also provide a lift to President Trump's fortunes.  As I have noted previously, over the next week or two Jupiter will aspect Trump's 10th house which symbolizes status and power.  While it could represent some positive developments on other fronts, I do wonder if some of his legal challenges will gain traction.  So far, they have gone nowhere.  And yet given Trump's rising fortunes and the likely simultaneous falling fortunes of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris (due to Saturn's placement at 4 Capricorn (square to Harris' Sun and Moon), it is possible this election intrigue could last a bit longer.  I still think Biden will win, but we could take a strange detour to get there.  Let's see how it plays out.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Trump challenges US election results

  (11 Nov 2020)  Despite Joe Biden's widening lead in the vote count, President Donald Trump has yet to concede to his Democratic opponent in the US election.  Instead, Trump has claimed that Biden has benefited from voter fraud in several hotly contested states.  To this end, the Department of Justice this week launched investigations into apparent irregularities in the vote which could form the basis of a formal legal challenge to the results.  Since Biden's lead is less than 1% in several states, it is possible that state outcomes could be reversed if significant fraud is uncovered and illegal votes are removed from the tally.

Trump's refusal to concede isn't surprising, since he already stated that he would not accept a loss in the election.  While the media and many world leaders have already recognized Joe Biden as the winner and President-Elect, there has not yet been a formal announcement by the overseeing office of the GSA.  Given the recounts now underway and possible legal challenges, formal announcement of the winner and certification of the results may take several more days at least.

Trump's shift to offense this week following last week's apparent defeat was in keeping with my expectations.  In last week's post, I thought that Trump was likely to enjoy some kind of boost from the Venus transit to his natal Jupiter (24 Virgo).  Not only did Attorney-General William Barr announce the electoral fraud investigation, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also spoke in support of Trump's right to verify the results before committing to any transition process with the incoming Biden administration.  As a reflection of Trump's shift to offense, the political betting market Predictit.org saw a small, but marked, move towards his re-election from a low a 8% last week to 18% today. 

I still think Joe Biden is likely to be the next president, but the planets suggests that Trump will not go quietly.  Previously, I suggested that Trump's fortunes would rise further next week as Jupiter entered Capricorn (Nov 19-20) and would align with his 10th house cusp representing status and success.  And as if to offer confirmation, Joe Biden's chart showed an affliction to his 12th house Mars towards the end of next week. 

Just to round out the analysis this week, we can take a look at the natal chart of the US and the chart of the would-be vice-president, Kamala Harris. As I outlined in a previous post, this year's post-election planetary alignments have a similarity to the post-election patterns of the contested 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.  One of the main similarities was the placement of Saturn.  In 2000, Saturn was closely aspecting the USA's natal Mercury at 3 Cancer by 3rd house aspect.  This year, Saturn (3 Capricorn) will exactly oppose Mercury over the next two weeks or so.  Saturn's affliction to Mercury here symbolizes frustration, disruption and distortion, especially as they pertain to the election.  Elections are associated with Mercury,as it is the planet that rules matters of rational calculation. 

The Saturn-Mercury alignment will be in special focus late next week, perhaps around the time that Venus and the Sun also align at 3 degrees of their respective signs.  This could represent a significant development related to the election results and Trump's attempt to overturn the results.  As an added layer of affliction in the chart, transiting Mars will align with the natal Sun and Saturn which suggests conflict and strife.  Interestingly, this is also the day that Jupiter enters Capricorn which could give Trump a boost. 

 

Another perspective on this disputed election result is seen in the chart of Kamala Harris, the Democratic VP nominee.  Saturn is also front and center in her chart at this time as it aligns exactly with her Sun (4 Libra) and Moon (4 Aries).  The Saturn influence is usually negative and suggests some kind of burden or setback, especially when in hard aspect as it is here. 

Sometimes, the Saturn influence can translate into a greater sense of responsibility which may not be unwanted or even difficult.  Therefore, it is not impossible that this alignment could formally give her and Biden the election victory.   But this more benign Saturn scenario seems less probable.  While Harris' chart is still quite strong overall at this time, a temporary setback of some kind is quite possible.  In the zero-sum game of politics, it would seem that negatives for Harris (and Biden) could turn into positives for Trump, and vice-versa.  Let's see how Trump's legal challenges unfold.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have continued to their post-election rally this week, especially after Monday's Pfizer vaccine news.  While I thought we might have seen more volatility in this post-election period, I nonetheless expected some upside around Thursday's Jupiter-Pluto conjunction.  This bullish pairing takes place once a year and is usually positive for sentiment in the days leading up to its conjunction.  The days following the conjunction is usually less reliably bullish, however, although the bullish effects can sometimes linger.

This year the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction could have a lingering bullish influence since it will also form an alignment with the Sun and Venus that lasts into early next week.  Monday is also noteworthy as Venus leaves Virgo and enters the sign of Libra.  Venus sign changes are often bullish so there is some prospect for further upside, at least into early next week. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

US election aftermath: Biden closes in on the presidency

  (4 November 2020) Democrat nominee Joe Biden seems to be on the verge of winning the presidency tonight as the former vice president only needs to win one more state to reach the threshold of 270 Electoral Votes.  The several remaining undeclared states are still too close to call as mail-in ballots will decide the final outcome. Not surprisingly, President Donald Trump is already contesting the results and has requested a recount in Wisconsin and an investigation into Arizona's mail-in ballots.  

Biden's current lead in the voting is not unexpected as I had previously suggested that the planets on Election Day favoured him over Trump.  The current Jupiter-Pluto conjunction at 27-28 Sagittarius aligned very closely with his unequal 10th house cusp (26 Leo) of status and career.  Also the Sun conjoined his natal Mercury (19 Libra) today which provided an additional infusion of energy.  Since the Sun rules his 10th house of status while Mars rules his 1st house, this 1-10 combination is a powerful signature for public profile and success. 

As we know, President Trump's chart is quite afflicted this week as the Mercury-Saturn square aligns closely with his Venus-Saturn conjunction in the 12th house of loss.  The difference in transits between Trump and Biden is stark.   Trump's Saturn and 12th house influences are clear negatives while Biden's Jupiter and 10th house influences are positive. 

So is this the end of the US election?  Knowing Trump has stated that he will not accept a losing result, it does seem likely that he will try to fight on.  First, the counts have not yet been finalized so he could still conceivably win Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.  And even if he loses, he is likely to pursue full recounts and legal challenges. 

In last week's post, I thought that Trump's fortunes might begin to improve next week.  Venus will conjoins his dasha lord Jupiter (24 Virgo) on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Both planets are benefics and generally denote favourable outcomes.  Moreover, Venus will align with his natal Uranus (24 Taurus) and with Rahu (26 Taurus) and thus we could see a significant development which boosts Trump's chances.  And by this time, transiting Saturn will have moved off its opposition alignment to his natal Venus.  This will further reduce his level of chart affliction. 

However, I would not say this Venus transit can completely alter the post-election dynamic since Biden's chart does not seem clearly afflicted.  Biden may see a small setback next week as Mercury aligns with his Moon and Ketu and then conjoins his equal 12th house cusp.  This is only a brief transit, however, so I would not expect a reversal of his fortunes.  But it could be something that keeps Trump's hopes alive.

More important is the entry of Jupiter into sidereal Capricorn in the following week on November 20.  This could be more positive for Trump since it will align closely with his unequal 10th house cusp (MC).  This is likely to give him a significant boost. 

As it happens, Biden will see Mercury conjoin his Mars on Nov 20.  Coincidentally, this is also Biden's 78th birthday.  Mercury-Mars is usually a stressful combination that coincides with frustrations and small setbacks.  I don't think Biden will lose the election at this time, but it could keep the final outcome in doubt for a while longer.  I will post further updates as the post-election period continues to unfold.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have rallied this week as investors shrugged off the election uncertainty.  Markets appear to be pricing in a Biden win and Republican-controlled Senate.  Typically, the stock market prefers the gridlock of a divided government where the presidency and Congress are controlled by different parties.  This would likely limit the more radical parts of the Democrats agenda (tax increases, green infrastructure) while keeping stimulus packages more modest. 

I thought we might have seen more volatility this week around the election given the ongoing Mercury-Saturn square.  One possible reason for the gains is the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction which will become exact next week.  This bullish pairing is within one degree of exact this week and may have outweighed any negative effects of the Mercury-Saturn thus far. 

Nonetheless, the Mercury-Saturn square is exact tomorrow and Friday so there is a reasonable chance we could see a rise in volatility later this week and perhaps into early next week.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.


Biden Photo: C-Span.org