Trump still lagging in polls; stocks plunge on European lockdowns

  (28 October 2020) The campaign has now entered its final week ahead of next Tuesday's election.  The national polls suggest President Donald Trump is trailing Democrat nominee Joe Biden by about 7 points.  However, some key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Florida are much closer races and keep open the possibility of a 2016-style come from behind win by Trump.  Therefore, if he can eke out narrow wins in these states as he did in 2016, he could still end up losing the popular vote by 3 or 4 points and remain president.   That scenario still seems unlikely since Biden's lead is larger than Hillary Clinton's was, but as we know, polls are not always right.

From an astrological perspective, the planets still don't favour Trump next week.  As I have noted previously, the election night transits look worse for Trump than for Biden.  Mercury will station direct on Election Day while in an exact square aspect with Saturn.  This is a very difficult combination that suggests a range of negative situations including disappointment, confusion, deception, disruption and frustration.  At a general level, it suggests the election will not go smoothly.  This isn't a very bold prediction, given all of the controversy about mailed ballots and Trump's public declaration to contest the results if he doesn't like the outcome. 

Trump's problem is that the Mercury-Saturn square occurs at a pivotal point in his horoscope.  It forms another square alignment with his Venus-Saturn conjunction in early Cancer.  Square aspects are often difficult and coincide with unwanted situations.  And Saturn's double involvement here indicates a stressful and unfavourable period for Trump next week.  To put it plainly: this is not an alignment one usually sees in a winning candidate's chart.

Other transits are also unhelpful for Trump's re-election.  Rahu (North Lunar Node) is conjunct its natal position and suggests major changes afoot.  Mars (21 Pisces) forms an exact 135 degree alignment with Trump's Ascendant (6 Leo).  This is indicative of conflict and anger.  Mars is due to station direct at 21 Pisces in mid-November and is one reason why Trump is more likely to have fewer votes than Biden on Nov 3 and why is likely to contest the results.  Mars is the planet of war, of course, and Trump will likely go to war with the Democrats over this election. 

But as I have also noted before, Trump's chart does improve somewhat later in November and in December as Jupiter aligns with his Midheaven (unequal 10th house cusp) at 1 Taurus.  This suggests that post-election developments may be more positive for him, perhaps reflecting legal successes if he contests the outcome.  I would think he gets some good news on the week following the election (Nov 9-13) as Venus conjoins his Jupiter. 

As I've said before, I still think Biden's chart is better in early January when Congress meets to count the Electoral College votes.  For this reason, I think he is more likely to become president on January 20, 2021.  But I admit I don't feel too strongly about it, partially because it is now unclear exactly when the election will be decided.  


Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks fell more than 3% today as Germany and France announced Covid lockdowns to deal with the second wave of the pandemic.  The recent decline seems to reflect the bearish influence of the Venus transit of Virgo, its sign of debilitation.  Venus entered sidereal Virgo on October 23 and will leave that sign of November 16.  This suggests that stocks are more likely to struggle during that four-week period.  That said, it does not mean that the market will fall throughout the transit, but rather it will be marked by declines at different points during the transit. 

With market uncertainty likely to rise with next week's election, it seems quite possible that stocks could fall further.  The Mercury-Saturn alignment on Election Day is a bearish combination in any event so no matter who ends up winning, market sentiment is likely to suffer.  While Mercury-Saturn squares are bearish, this particular one may be especially bearish since Mercury will end its retrograde cycle on November 3 and return to direct motion.  This direct station means that Mercury will remain within Saturn's bearish influence for several days, instead of the usual one. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

The Covid second wave takes hold

(21 October 2020)  It would seem the second wave of Covid-19 is now underway.  The number of infections and hospitalizations are spiking across the world as the coronavirus makes its much-anticipated return with the arrival of cooler weather in the northern hemisphere.   As an indicator of the spread of the virus, positivity test rates are now as high as 10% in the US, UK, France and India while most East Asian countries continue to keep the pandemic under control. 

Certainly, the experts had predicted a second wave since people tend to congregate indoors more with the fall season.  Nonetheless, this autumn second wave also validates my previous astrological assessment using the chart of US president Donald Trump as a proxy for the United States.  In a previous post from May 5, I suggested that the ongoing afflictions to Trump's horoscope indicated the likelihood of a second wave in late September, with a possible third wave in December. 

The nation's health is seen through the condition of the 1st house (the national 'body') and the 6th house (health), as well as their house rulers.   The Sun rules Trump's 1st house so the recent transit of Rahu (North Lunar Node) to his Sun in September would manifest as an affliction to the nation's vitality.  The more important transit would be Saturn and its opposition to Trump's Venus-Saturn conjunction in his 12th house.  With Leo rising in his chart, Trump's 6th house of health contains the sign of Capricorn, which is ruled by Saturn.  Therefore, any aspects involving his Saturn (at 0 Cancer) would likely coincide with troubles relating to this pandemic.  Saturn stationed at 1 Capricorn on September 29 -- just one degree from exactly opposing its natal position -- and we have seen the outbreak worsen considerably over the past few weeks.

And with Saturn transiting Trump's 6th house of health for several more months, it seems unlikely that Covid will be brought under control soon.  Transiting Saturn is due to conjoin his 6th house cusp (6 Capricorn) in December.  This could well see another peak of infections and concerns about the virus, although we should note that Jupiter will also be there at 6 Capricorn so that could indicate a mitigation or some kind of 'light at the end of the tunnel' effect, either through infection controls or a vaccine. 


UK Covid second wave

We can also see this Covid second wave in other national charts.  The horoscope of the UK (January 1, 1801) shows the pandemic manifesting as afflictions to key natal planets by malefic planets.  With Virgo rising, the national well-being is seen through the ruler of the 1st house, Mercury.  Mercury has been conjoined by Ketu (South Lunar Node) in recent weeks at the time when infections were rising sharply.  The UK has entered a second lockdown this week in order to arrest the spread of the virus. 

The other key factor here is the role of the transit of Neptune.  In Western astrology, Neptune is associated with illness and weakness, especially when it is in hard aspect (0,90,180 degrees) with a key natal planet.  It is not surprising then that we find Neptune (24 Aquarius) placed in the 6th house of health and forming a close 90-degree square aspect with Mercury, the ruler of the 1st house.  Moreover, the Neptune-Mercury square has been in effect throughout 2020 and is one central astrological reason why the pandemic has hit the UK so hard.

Looking ahead, I would expect this second wave to abate somewhat by late November and early December as Ketu will slip past the UK's natal Mercury.   Moreover, I would expect further improvement as Jupiter transits into Capricorn by January.  Jupiter will cast its helpful aspect upon the Virgo Ascendant and should provide a substantial boost to national health and national confidence. This may be the result of better control of the virus or an effective vaccine becoming available.  Despite the likely improvement, the virus will remain an area of ongoing concern as long as Neptune is square to natal Mercury. This alignment will remain within range until spring 2021, with a possible return in the fall of 2021 when Neptune turns retrograde.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have generally moved lower over the past week on fading hopes for a US stimulus bill.  This negative bias was in keeping with expectations given last week's tense Sun-Mars-Ketu-Saturn alignment.  This week hasn't seen much improvement with the Mars alignment with Jupiter and Neptune. 

The outlook doesn't look especially bullish for the coming days.  While some short term upside is still quite possible, the entry of Venus into sidereal Virgo on Friday, October 23 introduces a new bearish influence upon collective sentiment in the near term.  As it happens, the US election on November 3 will take place while this bearish transit is still in effect.  This suggests that any gains are likely to be modest and unsustainable. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Mercury turns retrograde as hopes fade for a US stimulus bill

  (14 October 2020) This week US markets began to consider the possibility that there would be no stimulus bill before the election as hopes faded for an agreement between the White House and the Nancy Pelosi's House Democrats.  After Monday's gains almost matched the early September highs, stocks moved lower this week, as Mercury turned retrograde on Tuesday after the close.  Mercury's retrograde stations are often bearish for stocks as the backward movement of the planet of commerce often correlates with pullbacks.       

This political situation feeds into the larger question is whether this week's pullback may be a preview of a larger decline given the ongoing uncertainty about the outcome of the US election on November 3.  While Democrat Joe Biden is well ahead in the polls, investors remain concerned about a possible contested election where President Donald Trump finds a way to appeal the result to the Supreme Court.  A contested election result would be bad news for markets.

One window on the state of the markets is seen through the horoscope of the New York Stock Exchange, founded on May 17, 1792.  The various transit influences on the horoscopes of stock exchanges and stock indexes often provide clues which can help to predict the future movement in share prices.   According to the principles of financial astrology, transit alignments involving benefic planets like Jupiter, Venus and Mercury often coincide with gains while transits of malefic planets like Saturn, Mars, and the Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu, are common in declines. 

Today's transits are an apt reflection of current sentiment.  On the positive side of the ledger, we can see that the 60-degree aspect between Jupiter-Neptune (bullish) is closely aligned with Uranus and Chiron in the natal NYSE chart.  This is one reason why stocks have been bullish so far in October.  We can also say that the Jupiter-Neptune transit alignment itself is a bullish influence which likely had a hand in creating a more optimistic trading environment. 

It is worth noting that the Jupiter-Neptune alignment was exact on Sunday and Monday, right at the time of Monday's strong rally.  While the positive effects of this alignment can sometimes linger, its bullish influence starts to wane on the day it is exact.  Thus, the two down days we have seen so far suggests that the Jupiter-Neptune alignment is indeed weakening.  Interestingly, there was a similar Jupiter-Neptune alignment on February 20 just before the big Covid sell-off.  This is not to suggest that another huge decline is imminent, but rather that there is an underlying shift in sentiment towards a more pessimistic bias in the wake of these Jupiter-Neptune aspects.

On the negative side of the ledger, we can see that Mercury turned retrograde yesterday after the close of trading in the US.  Mercury stationing retrograde is often a negative influence on sentiment and the downside on Tuesday and Wednesday would appear to be a neat reflection of this tendency.  While Mercury Rx is bearish, its effects do not usually last beyond a few days, even though it continues its retrograde cycle for three weeks and will return to apparent direct motion on Election Day, November 3. 

But the chart suggests other sources of tension.  We can see that the current alignment of retrograde Mars (26 Pisces), the Sun (27 Virgo), Pluto (28 Sagittarius) and Ketu (27 Scorpio) is likely to have a significant impact on this chart.  Mars is conjunct the natal Moon (28 Pisces), while all three planets align with the natal Mars at 27 Leo.  This bearish alignment is closest this week and suggests more downside is quite possible.

Looking further ahead, we can see another mix of influences in play.  Bullish Jupiter is approaching its conjunction with Pluto over the next several weeks and could provide a floor beneath stocks in the event of further volatility.  And yet Saturn (2 Capricorn) is due to aspect Jupiter and the Sun over the next two or three weeks.  This is likely to have a depressing effect on sentiment.  The simultaneous bullish and bearish influences leading up to the election suggests a somewhat mixed market, as opposed to a strong rise or sharp fall.  That said, I might hold on to a modest bearish bias here in any event given the upcoming transit of Venus in Virgo from October 23 until November 16.  Venus is debilitated in sidereal Virgo, as notions of value and wealth come under greater scrutiny. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

VP debate preview; Trump treated for Covid

 (6 October 2020) The roller coaster of 2020 never stops it seems.  President Donald Trump was diagnosed with the coronavirus last Friday but has returned to the White House after a short hospital stay. Trump's condition has improved since the weekend although doctors are watching him carefully in the event of further symptoms.  In some patients, the second week can be worse than the first week. 

Trump's diagnosis is reflected in a difficult planetary alignment.  As noted last week, the month of October was likely going to bring bad news for the president since he was experiencing an unusual multi-planet alignment of malefic planets.  The Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu, have returned to their natal position where they also conjoin Trump's Sun and Moon, since he was born on a lunar eclipse when the Sun is conjunct Rahu and the Moon is conjunct Ketu. 

Trump's problems are compounded by the fact that Pluto and Mars are also in a degreewise alignment with the Lunar Nodes and thus deeply afflict both his Sun and Moon.  He is in a very tough spot indeed.  This week would appear to be a possible nadir in his fortunes.  As I noted in last week's update, the time around the VP debate would seem to carry an added burden for him.  This could reflect a poor performance by his VP Mike Pence, or it is possible it could also relate to other concerns, such his ongoing medical condition.  


Vice presidential debate

The VP debate takes place tomorrow, October 7, at 7.00 pm in Salt Lake City when Republican vice president Mike Pence will debate Democratic Senator Kamala Harris.  The debate promises to be highly confrontational given the strong Mars alignment with Ketu and Pluto.  In addition, the Moon will conjoin Rahu at the start of the debate and will likely amplify the emotional impact of the proceedings.  Intense feelings and unpredictable developments are more likely with this Moon-Rahu conjunction, particularly when the Mars and Pluto influence is factored into the equation. 

Predicting the possible performances of Pence and Harris is made more difficult because we only have the birth time of Kamala Harris.  Mike Pence's horoscope is therefore only estimated for noon and may not offer as much useful data on how the debate will unfold. Pence's chart shows the Rahu-Ketu-Mars-Pluto alignment highlighting his natal Mercury at 28 Taurus.  This suggests some disruptive news or developments are possible in the debate.  It also can greatly intensify his speech patterns and aims of communication. 

But all three of these planets are natural malefics and do not set up a positive outcome for the debate at all.  Rahu can sometimes coincide with situations of creativity and thinking 'outside the box' but the Mars and Pluto influence here seems unhelpful in a debate setting.  The emphasis is on tension and conflict rather than success or rationality.  Of course, we don't know his exact horoscope so it's possible that he could have other more favorable patterns.  But that cannot be known.

Kamala Harris' chart also looks troublesome.  The theme of conflict is also front and center since her Mars (28 Cancer) will feel the full effect of this nasty Mars-Rahu-Ketu-Pluto alignment.  It seems likely that antagonism and conflict will be prominent in her debate experience.  For example, Pence may try to paint her as a radical leftist who is fomenting racial divisions in the US.  By standard Vedic aspecting, her Mars is in an exact 120-degree/5th house aspect from Ketu, the South Lunar Node.  This is associated with intense and stressful attacks that demand quick responses.  By itself, it cannot be considered a favorable influence for a debate win.  However, I would also note that the Mercury-Uranus opposition does form a close 135-degree alignment with her Ascendant and should give her the ability to deliver effective and intelligent answers. 

 

But the larger problem for her is that Saturn is sitting on her 8th house cusp at 1 Capricorn.  While this placement is dependent on an accurate birth time (which is from a birth certificate at least), this Saturn placement is not good at all for making progress towards one's goals.  It suggests obstacles and setbacks and even scandal.  Saturn is finally moving forward again since its direct station on September 29, but as I see it, it is too close for comfort there.  This is another reason why I can't get too optimistic about Harris's chances in the debate.  It may refer to other ongoing negative situations unrelated to the debate, but it nonetheless casts a long shadow over her progress.

Harris' chart gets a bit better if we relocate her chart to Salt Lake City, there is a very nice placement of transiting Venus there on her 3rd house cusp. The 3rd house is associated with communication and Venus symbolizes beauty and harmony.  Therefore, there is at least some reason to expect Kamala Harris could do well in the debate, at least on the level of presentation.  Given these highly volatile aspects, I am reluctant to predict a clear winner in the VP debate.  And yet, Harris could have an edge here given the role of Venus in her relocated chart. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks suffered a major reversal lower today after President Trump abruptly broke off stimulus negotiations with the Democrats.  With Trump postponing any hope of a stimulus until after the election, markets are more vulnerable here since much of the recent up trend had been based on stimulus hopes.   The sell-off appeared to confirm my forecast from last week of some turbulence on the alignment of Mars with stationary Pluto and Ketu, the South Lunar Node. 

I suspect we could see more turbulence this week as the Mars alignment will remain within range until Friday.  At the same time, it is important to note the potentially offsetting bullish influence of the Jupiter-Neptune alignment over the coming days.  This suggests that the market may see significant moves in both directions as the tense pessimism of Mars alternates with the optimism of Jupiter.  Nonetheless, caution is warranted.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.