The passing of RBG reshapes the race ahead of next week's debate

  (23 September 2020) Last week's passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has introduced a new dynamic into the US election campaign.  The loss of the left-leaning RBG could mark a significant rightward shift in the Supreme Court if Trump and the GOP carry through on their promise to appoint her successor.  As of now, Trump and the GOP-controlled Senate have the 50 votes necessary to confirm a new justice over the coming weeks, regardless of who wins the election on November 3.  The administration's term concludes on January 20, 2021 so even if Trump should lose the November election, the confirmation of a conservative justice such as Amy Coney Barrett or Barbara Lagoa could still take place sometime in November or December.

This development is likely a political boost for Trump.  The prospect of another conservative member of SCOTUS will likely increase the enthusiasm and turnout of his voting base.  Whatever his many shortcomings and failures, Trump has delivered on his campaign promise of appointing two and now, possibly three conservative judges.  In the US system of government, the judicial branch has a greater and more direct political importance than in, say, the British Parliamentary system.  Also, the focus on the campaign can now shift away from his administration's bungled handling of the Covid crisis and onto the more politically beneficial confirmation of a conservative justice. 

As I suggested three weeks ago, I thought that Trump's standing could improve in September due to the Mars retrograde cycle and the transit of Mercury to his natal Jupiter.  Interestingly, I highlighted the day of Mercury's conjunction to Trump's Jupiter on September 17 as the time of a possible favorable development.  As it happened, Justice Ginsburg passed away the following day, on September 18.  To be sure, Trump's polls numbers and betting odds haven't moved much in September, but there is some sense that the battleground states are very much in contention as we approach the first presidential debate next Tuesday, September 29. 

And the debates could be very important.  For Joe Biden, they are an opportunity to decisively put to rest the widely-held view that he may no longer be mentally sharp enough to be president.  The 77-year old Biden has at times seemed confused and incoherent on the campaign trail so a strong debate showing against Trump could help to solidify his support.  Trump therefore needs to make Biden look like he is incapable of leading the country in order to build more momentum towards his failing campaign.  

The planets for the first debate suggest a mixed picture for both candidates.  In Trump's chart, the transiting Mars-Saturn square will be closely aligned with his Venus-Saturn conjunction.  This is a difficult pattern that suggests frustration, tension and generally negative social interactions. Jupiter isn't helping him much here, although I do note that it forms an exact 120 degree aspect with his relocated Midheaven (10th house cusp) for Cleveland where the debate will be held.  That could indicate some favorable outcomes at least.  Transiting Venus will be conjunct his Mars in his 1st house.  This can be good for public perceptions (1st house) although the Mars influence on Venus is usually a sign of disagreements and conflict.  Well, it is a debate, after all. 

Mercury in Libra will transit Trump's 3rd house which should enhance his ability to communicate.  Of course, the slow-moving Rahu-Sun conjunction and Ketu-Moon conjunction is a huge wild card although its effects are not specific to the night of the debate.  This heavy nodal influence often marks situations of disruption and instability and may make Trump's behavior even more unpredictable than usual.  We may charitably say that he could succeed in keeping Biden off balance in the debate, but he also may not do himself any favors in the process.

Biden's chart is also afflicted by that Mars-Saturn square as it sets up against his Jupiter in the 9th house.  This could symbolize an inability to communicate his philosophy and campaign platform.   The Venus in Leo transit looks generally positive for him in the 10th house, although that may simply be a reflection of the greater social exposure he will enjoy as a result of the debate.  More worrying is the Moon-Neptune conjunction that is conjunct his 4th house cusp (IC) opposite his 10th house cusp (MC).  Moon-Neptune aspects can indicate situations of confusion or loss of self, especially when they are located around one of the chart angles as is the case here. 

Mercury in Libra will transit his 12th house opposite his Moon.  This suggests that Biden may have some difficulty getting the specifics of his message across to the debate audience. Moon-Mercury oppositions can indicate creative thinking but it is less well-suited for logical and orderly presentations. 

Overall, both charts have significant problems on September 29. Trump's may be a bit better, however, in terms of communication (Mercury in 3rd house, vs in the 12th in Biden's chart) and the Venus in the Ascendant with his Mars could actually boost his personal appeal, albeit through conflict.  I would not expect a clear win by either candidate, although I think that Trump could do better than Biden. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have retreated in recent days as the reality of the Covid second wave has begun to sink in.  US stocks fell sharply again today just as Mercury and Mars aligned with Saturn and Ketu (the South Lunar Node).  Since three of these four planets were natural malefics (i.e planets that tend to produce negative outcomes), it was no surprise that the market moved lower.  The downdraft was in keeping with expectations as I have previously noted both here and in my newsletter the likelihood of some significant declines in late August and throughout September, with a special focus on late September and this rare four-planet alignment.

Further declines are possible this week as Mercury and Mars remain in fairly close alignment with Saturn and Ketu.  Mercury will begin to separate tomorrow (Thursday) so that could indicate some lessening of the negative sentiment, however.  But Mars will stay in a tense square with Saturn well into next week so I would not expect much upside over the next few days.  It seems more likely that markets will trend lower going into next week. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

When will the US election be decided?

  (16 September 2020) There are only 47 days left until the US presidential election.  However, an increasing number of people do not expect the election to be decided on November 3.  Due to a number of contested issues, both Republicans and Democrats have expressed a reluctance to immediately concede the election regardless of the result.  President Donald Trump has sought to raise questions about the legitimacy of a sudden surge of mail-in ballots due to the Covid pandemic.  And prominent Democrats such as Hillary Clinton have urged nominee Joe Biden not to concede on election night under any circumstances given the varying and confusing array of state rules pertaining to mail-in ballots.

Aside from the mutual distrust of both camps, several million mail-in votes likely won't be counted until several days after election day in any event as some states will accept votes that are postmarked November 3.  So even if there is a landslide win for either side, it seems almost certain that the winner won't be declared for up to a week after the election.  And then if we factor in the possibility (or likelihood!) of a legal challenge of the results, then we could be looking at some kind of repeat of the Bush-Gore stalemate.  The Supreme Court finally declared Bush the winner on December 12, 2000, 36 days after the election. 

We already know that the planets for this election look very afflicted as Mercury stations direct in a harsh square aspect with Saturn.  In this situation, Mercury may be seen to symbolize communications (i.e voting) and Saturn represents the denial or postponement of the results.  But if the planets look sufficiently tense to reflect a delay in the final decision, just when should we expect the results to be known?


The Bush-Gore election stalemate

To answer this question, it can be useful to examine the potential precedent of the Bush-Gore election stalemate in 2000.   On the day of the election, there were a number of tense planetary aspects.  Most famously, Mercury stationed direct in an exact square with natal Pluto in the USA chart.  This is an extremely bad influence that suggests communication/voting that is undermined through power and coercive measures.  While Bush appeared to win the pivotal state of Florida in the early morning hours of Nov 8, Gore challenged the results due to voting irregularities in several counties. 

The delayed result was likely also seen through the conjunction of Rahu and the Sun at 22 Gemini.  Rahu symbolizes distortion and confusion so its conjunction with the Sun (= government and leaders) is very appropriate at a time when the election could not immediately determine who would be the next president. 

More fundamentally, natal Mercury (communication) at 3 Cancer was afflicted by Transiting Saturn (4 Taurus) through its 60 degree/3rd house aspect within just one degree.  These latter two afflictions by slow-moving malefics were a major reason why this election was so unprecedented.  Finally, we can see that Venus (social harmony, happiness) was exactly opposite Mars (conflict, disputes) on election day. Not surprisingly, the whole country was frustrated with the electoral indecision as Al Gore sought to formally contest the results.

On the basis of this overview, it seems logical that the resolution of this legal dispute would occur when: 1) the afflicting planets had sufficiently moved away from their positions on election day, and/or 2) positive influences would be more prominent in the USA chart reflecting some kind of closure on the matter. 

The Supreme Court finally handed down its decision on December 12 and awarded the election to Bush.  We can see that the two major afflicting planets had moved off somewhat as Rahu (21 Gemini) was now one degree past its exact conjunction and Saturn (1 Taurus) was two degrees past its exact 60 degree/3rd house aspect to natal Mercury.  Transiting Mercury was conjunct Pluto at 19 Scorpio just barely past its exact opposition with Uranus.   This alignment highlighted the sudden resolution of the fierce legal contest which had captivated the country.  The opposition aspect carries some unease, however, and this may have reflected how many people, especially Democrats, were not at all satisfied with the judgment. 

And while the negative influences had lessened by Dec 12, we can see that benefic Jupiter (10 Taurus)  had moved into a more favorable position sitting on the 6th house cusp (9 Taurus) representing conflict and legal issues.  Jupiter is the planet of justice and knowledge, so its conjunction suggested the legal resolution to the conflict.  In addition, Jupiter aligned with benefic Venus and Neptune (11 Capricorn) very near the 2nd house cusp (prosperity, wealth, stability) and thereby further highlighted the underlying positive influences on the Ascendant (9 Sagittarius).


Will history repeat in the 2020 election?
 
Looking ahead to November 3, we can see a similar pattern of afflictions involving Mercury (communication, voting) and the Sun (government, leaders).  Just as in 2000, Saturn will align with natal Mercury thus again setting up the possibility of a blocked or delayed vote results.  This time around, Saturn (2 Capricorn) will oppose Mercury suggesting the likelihood of a delayed result.  Also like 2000, we can see that transiting Mercury (1 Libra) will be involved with Saturn by a square aspect and thus will be further implicated with the affliction to natal Mercury through a T-square alignment.  And the parallels go even further since Mercury will station retrograde on election day.  Mercury stations, both direct and retrograde, are very troublesome when they are aligned with malefics, especially by hard aspect (0,45,90,180), as it is here. 

The Sun (government, leaders) will be under the square aspect of retrograde Mars (21 Pisces) within one degree.  This suggests intense conflict involving government is likely around election day.  Even more worrying is that transiting Rahu (26 Taurus) aspects natal Saturn (24 Virgo) within just two degrees.  Saturn symbolizes structures, tradition and order so its simultaneous affliction by Rahu may well represent a climate of chaos where social stability and social order are called into question.  The Rahu influence here on Saturn suggests a very tumultuous and unpredictable post-election period, probably even more so than we saw back in 2000.

The Bush-Gore case suggests that resolution of the election is more likely to occur when malefics are less prominent (i.e. separating from their initial alignments) and when benefics are stronger through closer alignments with natal planets in the USA chart.

With transiting Saturn due to exactly conjoin Mercury around November 20, some kind of resolution may become more likely only after that date.  Jupiter is due to align with both Saturn and natal Mercury on December 1 or so.  Jupiter's influence is likely to move the conflict closer to some kind of resolution.   Mars is due to move past its exact square aspect to the Sun in early December, thus suggesting that conflict involving government is more likely to wane.

However, we can see that Rahu will remain in close aspect with natal Saturn in December and January so the disruption and chaos could extend into the holidays.  And yet Jupiter will conjoin the 2nd house cusp (prosperity, wealth) in the first week of January.  This is a strong indication that whatever uncertainty may remain is likely to be resolved around the time the Congress meets (January 6, 2021) to count the electoral votes. 

The transit chart for the second week of January (especially Jan 11) looks quite positive and should coincide with some significant resolution of the dispute.  I still think Biden is more likely to be the winner but I must admit I am far from being certain in that prediction. 

The takeaway here may be that the November election is likely to be disputed with a final decision only becoming possible in early December and more likely taking place in January.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stock markets have generally tracked higher in recent days, perhaps on an oversold bounce following the tech decline of the previous week. As expected, we got some upside early this week around the Moon-Venus conjunction and the aftermath of the Jupiter direct station over the weekend.  However, stocks pulled back a bit today following the Fed's latest statement on the economy. 

The planets for the rest of this week do not look very positive.  The probable culprit is the alignment of the Sun, Saturn and Ketu, all in the first degrees of their respective signs. While the near-stationary Jupiter may have a positive influence on sentiment, it seems unlikely to offset the caution suggested in the powerful Sun-Saturn-Ketu pattern.  The ongoing Saturn-Ketu alignment will likely bring another spike in pessimism next week when retrograde Mars and Mercury move into that configuration.



For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Tesla falls 30% as tech bubble bursts

  (9 September 2020) The Covid tech bubble finally rediscovered the forces of gravity over the past week as big tech firms such as Apple and Tesla saw their share prices fall sharply.  Ironically -- but perhaps not surprisingly -- the high-water mark for the tech sector may have been last week's stock splits of market darlings Apple and Tesla.  Both high-flying stocks began trading the new post-split shares on Aug 31.  Tesla peaked on Aug 31 and Apple just one day later and both have suffered huge declines since.  Tesla fared worse, falling more than 30% from its high last Monday.  

We can see how the current planetary alignment may have negatively impacted the Tesla share price.  Using the Tesla IPO horoscope for June 29, 2010, it is clear that the current tense alignment of Mars, Saturn and Ketu has highlighted a couple of key points in the chart.  First, the Ascendant at 1 Leo is activated by Saturn (1 Capricorn) as it approaches its direct station in that same degree on September 29.   Saturn is a malefic planet, of course, so whenever it forms close alignments to key points in the chart (e.g. Ascendant, Sun, or Moon), stress and disappointment are more likely and prices are more likely to fall.

Ketu (South Lunar Node) is also in close alignment with the Ascendant and conjunct the 5th house cusp at 2 Sagittarius.  Both Saturn and Ketu are slow-moving planets and have been sitting on that pivotal first degree of their respective signs for a couple of weeks.  And yet Tesla's price kept rising right up until Aug 31 despite this ongoing dual affliction by malefic planets.  Why?

On August 31, Venus and Mercury also aligned with Saturn, Ketu and the natal Ascendant at 1 Leo.  Unlike Saturn and Ketu, Venus and Mercury are benefic planets that are usually prominent during periods of increasing prices.  Tesla hit a post-split peak of $500 on Aug 31 as Venus (0 Cancer) and Mercury (27 Virgo) joined the fray and thereby lent a more positive energy to the ongoing Saturn and Ketu configuration. 

Once Venus and Mercury moved out of alignment (in the first days of September), the full negative influence of the Saturn and Ketu could be felt.  Ketu also slipped back one more degree from 2 Sagittarius to 1 Sagittarius and thus formed an exact aspect with the Ascendant.  We should also make note of the Mars retrograde station at 4 Aries.  This station is likely a bearish influence on the chart because: 1) it aligns with malefic Saturn (4 Virgo) and 2) it is only three degrees from conjoining the 9th house cusp and thus aligning with the Ascendant. 

Looking ahead, I would think Tesla is unlikely to return to its previous highs anytime soon.  As Mars begins its retrograde cycle today, its alignment with Saturn and Ketu and the Ascendant will tighten. This is likely to coincide with further weakness.  Late September in particular seems likely to correspond with some additional selling.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have generally declined in recent days as last week's Venus-Mars-Mercury alignment coincided with a significant downdraft in the markets.  Today's bounce was not unexpected given the favourable Sun-Jupiter alignment, however. 

The rest of this week looks uncertain.  The Sun-Neptune opposition leans bearish for Friday and could put market bulls on a more defensive footing.  After its retrograde station today (Sep 9), Mars is now stronger than usual as it moves backward through the sky until mid-November.  Therefore, we should expect heightened tension and conflict during this period, as small disputes can suddenly escalate into significant conflicts.  Perhaps not surprisingly, the uncertainty of the US elections will occur during this Mars retrograde period. 

Next week is mixed with some upside possible on next Monday's Moon-Venus conjunction.  The outlook seems less positive after that, however, as the Sun is due to align with the Saturn-Ketu alignment.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

Will Mars retrograde boost Trump's campaign?

  (2 September 2020) With just two months to go before the election, President Donald Trump finds himself trailing in the polls behind Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.  While Trump has seen a slight uptick in support over the past few weeks, Biden still enjoys a solid 7-point lead.  Trump's polling numbers have trended modestly higher in August as he has benefited from the ongoing rioting and civil unrest in cities such as Portland, Seattle and most recently, Kenosha, Wisconsin.  As an early indicator of possible growing support, political betting markets now see a 50% chance of a Trump win in November.  This is up from just a 35% chance of winning at the beginning of August.  Betting markets are less reliable than polls, however.

This upward trend in support may well continue into September.  Previously, I suggested that the Biden-Harris campaign would likely experience a significant setback in September.  This was closely related to the Mars retrograde station that occurs on September 9.  With Mars due to turn retrograde at 4 degrees of sidereal Aries, this will directly impact the horoscopes of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.  The Mars influence will likely reflect a general increase in stress and activity but it is likely to also create problems for them.  For example, Mars will station in Biden's 6th house of enemies and conflict.

By contrast, the Mars retrograde station may actually be a plus for Trump.  That is largely because Mars stations retrograde in his benefic 9th house in a sign that it rules (Aries).  Favourable outcomes around this time are more likely in areas of long distance travel, higher knowledge and religion, and law. 

Some possible manifestations could be a positive development involving an overseas ally (e.g. Taiwan, Israel, UK) or a helpful legal development.  Trump already won a court appeal to keep his tax returns secret until after the election, so that may be part of this 9th house influence. But we should keep an eye out for further favourable developments in the legal sphere for Trump, including the handling of the election itself.  There is considerable debate about mail-in ballots and the ability of the post office to handle the increase in mailed ballots due to Covid.

Mars (4 Aries) will also align with Trump's natal Mars (3 Leo) at this time.  This Mars-Mars combination is also suggestive of conflict and disputes. But since he was born with Mars rising, conflict is a normal condition for him. He is usually comfortable with a certain amount of conflict and anger so he is more likely to gain some advantage from any new conflictual situation. 

The other reason why Trump is likely to do well in September is because Mercury will be conjunct his natal Jupiter (24 Virgo).  Jupiter is his current major dasha lord so any favourable transits to Jupiter are likely to coincide with positive outcomes.  Since Jupiter is in Trump's 2nd house of wealth, there may be positive economic news for him and the US in general.  The exact Mercury-Jupiter conjunction takes place on September 17 so that could be an interim high-water mark for Trump. 

However, I would expect Trump's fortunes to worsen in late September as Mars casts its square aspect more exactly to Venus and Saturn.  And with the lunar nodes returning to their natal position (Rahu-0-Rahu; Ketu-0-Ketu) in October, Trump seems less likely to do well in the final month of the campaign. 

For now, I still think Joe Biden will have more votes on election night and it seems likely that he will be the next president.  That said, given the likelihood of some post-election uncertainty, the final result may not be known for some time afterwards.  This creates some uncertainty in terms of making a prediction about the final outcome.


Weekly Market Forecast
 
US Stocks have continued their relentless upward ascent this week on hopes for an early Covid vaccine.  Other stock markets have been more mixed with Japan and Germany mostly flat over the past week with some profit-taking place in India.  I thought we might have seen more downside by this time given the ongoing Mars-Saturn-Ketu alignment, however.

While we have yet to see any negative impact from this alignment, it will remain in place to some degree for the next month or so.  Therefore, it seems more likely that stocks will move significantly lower eventually. 

Tomorrow and Friday lean more bearish in this respect as Mars aspects Venus.  This aspect won't last too long but it could break the current bullish spell over the market.  And then next week we will see if there is any immediate fallout from the Mars retrograde station on Wednesday Sep 9.   To be sure, there are some interesting times ahead. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.


Trump photo: C-Span.org