Markets await keynote speech from Fed Chair Powell

  (26 August 2020) US stocks continued their march to new record highs this week as investors look forward to tomorrow's keynote speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell at the annual Jackson Hole Conference.  Powell is expected to announce a major shift in the Fed's inflation policy, most likely to allow for more inflation through the notion of "average inflation".  So instead of keeping its strict inflation ceiling of 2% per year, the Fed would temporarily accept higher rates of inflation without having to raise interest rates.  The higher limit for inflation is designed to give the Fed more leeway in its various stimulus efforts, including more QE (quantitative easing), active management of the bond yield curve, and perhaps even buying stocks directly. 

While this would be a major departure for the Fed, a similar approach has been in effect with decidedly mixed results in Japan for 20 years as that country has struggled to fuel any kind of economic growth and inflation given its shrinking and aging population.  Needless to say, any hint of more QE is good news for the stock market as the trillions of dollars handed out to banks and hedge funds invariably find their way into riskier assets in search of a return. 

Tomorrow's (Thursday Aug 27) speech could therefore move markets significantly.  If he announces new easing initiatives, then stocks could well extend their climb.  More upside in stocks would also likely mean higher prices for gold and higher bond yields, as inflation expectations rise.  But if Powell only delivers the same message of an "accommodative policy" without much in the way of new ideas, then stocks could decline in disappointment or even as a 'sell the news' event after the policy is announced.

One intriguing window on the Powell speech may be seen in his natal horoscope (Feb 4, 1953).  No doubt, the Fed Chair is feeling under significant strain and a heavy workload as the Covid crisis drags on into its sixth month.  The Mars-Saturn square aspect is currently aligning with his Saturn (4 Libra) through square and opposition aspects.  Both Mars and Saturn are malefics and therefore reflect more difficulty during the time when their aspects are closest.  Powell's Saturn symbolizes his responsibilities, restrictions, discipline and labor.  The double affliction here suggests this is a highly stressful situation as he attempts to map out what will invariably be a controversial new policy. 

But how will the market react?  This is harder to say.  The planets tomorrow are very mixed.  Bullish Venus aligns with Jupiter and Neptune which could easily translate into more upside for stocks.  However, I suspect that some of the gains we've seen already this week have been the result of the approach of this alignment so it is unclear how much of this energy is left.

At the same time, Mars and Saturn align with malefic Ketu and the Moon right at the time that Powell will be delivering his remarks in the morning.  This suggests some negative fallout is very possible, even if it may not immediately affect the stock market.  Since Venus and Jupiter may already have had their energies manifested this week, there is some added downside risk with the Moon highlighting this nasty Mars-Saturn-Ketu pattern.  Overall, the planets here lack clarity and I would not be surprised by any outcome.  But some caution is clearly warranted.

We can also see that the upcoming Mars retrograde station on September 9 will directly oppose Powell's Saturn. This suggest that whatever stress he may feel this week is likely to intensify in September.  Moreover, Powell's Saturn is also aligned through minor aspects with his Rahu (19 Capricorn) and his Mars (4 Sagittarius).  Therefore, the Mars station will align not only with Saturn but with his Mars and his Lunar Nodes (Rahu and Ketu).   I would therefore expect Powell to come under intense pressure around that time.  With Powell's chart coming under increasing affliction in the weeks ahead, it increases the probability of more uncertainty in the financial markets.   


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Democrats nominate Biden for president

  (19 August 2020) The 2020 race for the White House entered the home stretch yesterday as Democrats formally nominated Joe Biden to run against President Donald Trump in the November election.  Things are looking up for the former Vice-President, as Biden currently enjoys a 5 to 10 point lead in the polls while Trump struggles to gain a foothold amid the chaos of the Covid pandemic.  

As I have noted previously, the Biden-Harris ticket has a very good chance of winning this election. Trump's transits on Election Day, November 3, look difficult and are likely to see him losing, at least initially before any possible legal challenge.  By contrast, the transits of Joe Biden and his Kamala Harris look better.   On November 3, the Sun (18 Libra) conjoins Biden's 1st house lord Mars (19 Libra) and suggests public prominence while Jupiter (27 Sagittarius) aligns with Mercury (28 Libra) and the unequal 10th house cusp/MC (26 Leo).  And the Mercury direct station that occurs on Election Day aligns exactly with Harris' Ascendant and should give also confer an advantage to the Democrats. 

Another window on the election can be seen through the combined chart of Biden and Harris.  The Davison relationship chart is often used in Western astrology but is relatively unknown in Vedic astrology.  The relationship chart is calculated by taking the temporal and spatial midpoint between the horoscopes of two people to create a third chart.  This chart then reflects their combined fortunes such as through their business, political or romantic relationship. 

The relationship chart for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris is cast for November 5, 1953 at 8.29 a.m. at 39N36 and 98W57.   If we look at the transits against this chart, there is an obvious trouble spot coming up: the Mars retrograde station.  The Mars Rx station at 4 Aries on September 9 was always going to figure prominently in this election because it fell near the 9th house cusp of Donald Trump's chart squaring both his Saturn and Venus.  This suggests conflict and frustration, possibly involving foreign countries. 

What is noteworthy here is that this Mars station in early September also hits the Biden-Harris relationship head-on as Mars (4 Aries) will exactly oppose the Moon (4 Libra) and square the Lunar Nodes (4 Cancer/Capricorn).  Last week, I suggested that Kamala Harris was likely to experience a setback around this same time frame in early September since the Mars station would conjoin her Moon at 4 Aries (=sharp conflict).  The Biden-Harris relationship chart offers confirming evidence that conflict will predominate around the time of the Mars retrograde station.  While the Mars alignment to the Moon will be exact on September 6-10, the influence could have a wider manifestation from Sep 1-15. 

One possible scenario here is that Trump gets entangled in a foreign conflict which puts Biden at a disadvantage, if only because international conflicts push the president into a leadership role.  Trump is more likely to make hay from such an incident because Mercury, his 11th lord of gains will be favorably transiting his 2nd house of wealth and thereby also conjoining Jupiter, a benefic planet.   The exact Mercury-Jupiter conjunction takes place on September 18 and could mark a positive development for Trump which may well be reflected in an improved polling result.

Nonetheless, I still think Biden will finish fairly strong in the campaign and should win on November 3.  What happens after November 3 is less clear perhaps given the possibility of legal challenges, although I would still favour Biden to be one who is sworn-in on January 20, 2021. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have drifted higher over the past week in the absence of any clearly negative news.   The Fed's QE program buys up debt in order to depress interest rates (e.g. inflation adjusted yields are now negative) and thereby push investors into riskier assets like stocks.  So far, it's working perfectly as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have made new all-time highs in the middle of this Covid pandemic.  The expansion of the QE program to now include corporate debt means that the Fed can now buy bonds issued by the likes of Apple and with the Fed's money, Apple then buys up his shares and thereby boosts its share price. This is the roundabout way in which the Federal Reserve is actively boosting the stock market.  So it's no surprise that Apple is now trading at an all-time high.  This is good news if you own Apple stock but not so much if you are unemployed.  Incredibly, it's all legal. 

So far, my suggestion of a pullback has fallen flat.  The melt-up in stocks has continued into this week despite the supposedly bearish Mars-Saturn square.  We saw a minor pullback today (Wednesday) but nothing much to write home about.  Nonetheless, the US dollar did rally after the release of the Fed minutes so there are hints that the tide may be turning here.  Much of the Covid stock rally has occurred as a direct consequence of the falling dollar as the Fed prints more money to get the economy moving. If the dollar rallies further, then stocks will become more vulnerable. 

I still think that stocks are more likely to decline as the Mars-Saturn square will align with the South Lunar Node (Ketu) over the coming days.  According to Vedic astrology, Ketu is an anti-materialist influence that exalts the spiritual life over all other considerations.  In terms of financial markets, its influence tends to make growth and profit less compelling on a collective level and thus declines are more likely as investors sell their positions. 



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Kamala Harris chosen as Biden's VP nominee

  (11 August 2020) Kamala Harris won the veepstakes today as Joe Biden chose the junior Senator from California as his running mate in the upcoming November election.  With Biden enjoying a 10-point lead in the national polls over the incumbent President Trump, Ms. Harris finds herself on the cusp of gaining access to the focus of power in Washington, DC.  And with the aging Biden as the Democratic nominee, the Harris pick is all the more significant as many observers wonder if Biden will be mentally and physically capable of completing his first term. 

Her horoscope is clearly a good one.  As I suggested last year, Kamala Harris would likely do reasonably well during the run-up to the primaries, even if she suffered from some telling planetary afflictions during the crucial middle period of the Democratic primaries.  Born with Rahu rising, Harris revels in the role of a trailblazer and a person who likes to break with tradition.  Her Full Moon in Aries in the 11th house suggests she can effortlessly stand out from the crowd and can actively pursue her goals.  Her Moon in the 11th house is an excellent placement for realizing one's ambitions and so it is no surprise that Harris has made the successful transition from law to politics. 

She was chosen today just as Jupiter exactly aspected her Venus while transiting Venus was trine to her Midheaven (MC) -- the unequal 10th house cusp.  Both transits are common with happy occasions.  We can also see that Mars (28 Pisces) was closely conjunct her 11th house cusp (gains, ambitions) suggesting a significant achievement.  Also, Uranus is stationary retrograde tomorrow at 16 Aries and it forms an exact 45 degree alignment with her Ascendant at 1 Gemini.  This Uranus station may have provided the sudden burst of energy needed to 'put her over the top' and be chosen as Biden's running mate.

As good as her natal chart is, however, the next few weeks look quite challenging for Harris.   To be sure, Jupiter is due to station direct at 23 Sagittarius in September.  This will maintain the aspect to Venus and will likely keep her in the public eye and a center of attention as the campaign intensifies.  But Saturn and Mars are also going to station in September in close alignment with two key natal points.  The Mars retrograde station on September 9 at 4 Aries will conjoin her 11th house Moon and could indicate a major setback in her plans.  Mars-Moon aspects are often rooted in conflict and usually lead to frustration. 

But the added problem here is that Saturn will also station direct on September 29 at 1 Capricorn conjunct her 8th house cusp.  Afflictions to the 8th house often symbolize scandals or embarrassment of some kind that force people to take up a defensive position.  And to top it off, she will be undergoing a nodal return over the next several weeks as Rahu returns to its natal position in late August and September.  Nodal returns are often times of uncertainty and disruption which can be difficult to handle.   This nodal return is more likely to bring setbacks and confusion since Rahu will align closely with Mars and Saturn so that all three malefics will activate her Ascendant at 1 Gemini.  Therefore, the next 4-6 weeks may be unusually difficult for Harris both personally and professionally.  I would not be surprised if Biden's polling lead shrinks further during this time. 

But her chart looks quite good for Election Day, November 3.  Mercury is due to station direct at 1 Libra where it will exactly align with her Ascendant.  Also Jupiter (27 Sagittarius) and Pluto (28 Sagittarius) will aspect her 10th lord, Jupiter, with 2-3 degrees and will align with her 11th lord Mars (28 Pisces).  This is more evidence that Biden/Harris will have the initial lead over Trump on Election Day.  Whether they can hold it until the presidential inauguration on January 20 is another question that I will address in a future post. 



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have remained mostly bullish over the past week as an improving employment situation in the US gave investors hope that the worst of the Covid crisis might be over.  However, stocks, bonds and gold fell today (Tuesday) on renewed inflation fears with the Nasdaq leading the way lower.  Big tech companies like Apple suffered most, and this was in line with my thoughts from last week's post that the Mars aspect to the natal Venus in the Apple horoscope would likely coincide with some downside this week.  Apple fell 3% today. 

I think we could see more downside this week as Mars square Pluto over the next day or two.  Mars will then enter sidereal Aries next week where it will align with the Sun, Mercury Saturn and Ketu, the South Lunar Node.  While the Sun and Mercury are considered neutral or mildly benefic, the other three planets are natural malefics.  This elevates the downside risk considerably for next week.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Apple carries the markets higher

(4 August 2020) US stocks have continued to defy gravity in recent days despite a 32% decline in GDP and a disturbing rise in Covid deaths.  Last week's strong earnings reports from Big Tech confirmed what many already knew: that Apple, Facebook and Amazon are the only stocks holding up the market.  While the rest of the market is lagging badly, Apple and the other tech titans remain in a relentless bull market, fueled by the demand of a population held captive by the coronavirus.

Therefore, the stock market is being kept afloat not only by the machinations of the Fed and the Trump administration, but also by Apple, which is now trading at a new all-time high of $438.  The Apple chart is currently bullish as Jupiter is conjunct Mars within a three degree orb.  Meanwhile, bearish Saturn (3 Capricorn) is not doing much direct damage yet despite its presence in the 1st house.

Based on the transit picture, it seems likely we could see some kind of decline in Apple and the broader markets by next week as transiting Mars (29 Pisces) casts its full-strength 8th house aspect to Venus (29 Libra) and the 10th house cusp as well as its opposition aspect to Pluto.  While this will be exact on Friday, Aug 14, it will be within range several days earlier.  This suggests that some kind of pullback in Apple is more likely next week at the latest and this should impact global markets also.

We can also see that the upcoming Saturn direct station in late September should coincide with some additional downside in Apple.  Saturn is due to end its retrograde cycle on September 29 at 1 Capricorn and this will align closely with the the natal Mercury (16 Scorpio) in the Apple horoscope by the semisquare 45 degree aspect.  Since Saturn will be in close alignment with natal Mercury for much of September, this unprecedented rally in Apple may be harder to sustain since Saturn is a clear bearish influence.  Moreover, transiting Ketu (South Lunar Node) will conjoin the Sun-Neptune conjunction in early October and will become an additional burden on market sentiment.  In other words, it is hard to see how the current rally can continue for much longer.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.