EU Covid bailout boosts stocks

(21 July 2020)  Stocks remained buoyant to start the week after the European Union agreed to a massive $2 Trillion bailout package to combat the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic. After their 30% plunge to the March 23 low, US stocks have climbed back to within just 3% of their February 19 high before the coronavirus crisis. 

While unemployment is still in double digits and many people are barely able to get by on reduced wages, many global markets have rallied on the huge injection of cash from the Federal Reserve and other central banks.  Corporate earnings have taken a hit, of course, but it is the future outlook that matters most for investors as the market tends to look forward by 6-12 months.  Obviously, optimism comes more easily when Fed Chair Jay Powell is busy buying up corporate debt in order push hedge funds and institutional investors into riskier assets like stocks.

In last week's post, I thought we might have seen more downside by now since we may still be vulnerable to the impact of the July 5 lunar eclipse.  The eclipse occurred at 19 degrees of sidereal Sagittarius and Mars (19 Pisces) exactly squared that point today.  Mars aspects to eclipse points tend to have bearish effects on market sentiment and often correlate with declines. 

We did see some late day weakness in US markets today (Tuesday), but so far this Mars aspect is shaping up as a disappointing false positive.  Due to the relatively slower motion of Mars, it is still possible we could see some negative fallout this week from this Mars aspect to the lunar eclipse point.  Nonetheless, the probability for some downside begins to diminish tomorrow (Wednesday). 

Looking further ahead, we can see that the horoscope of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) may become more vulnerable to declines as the influence of Jupiter wanes and the influence of Saturn intensifies in the coming weeks.  Last week, retrograde Jupiter (27 Sagittarius) formed an exact 120-degree aspect with Mars (27 Leo) in the NYSE chart.  The previous week it has formed a 90-degree square alignment with the Moon (28 Pisces).  Both were likely bullish influences that appeared to coincide with the ongoing rally in the stock market.

Sentiment may be more likely to turn cautious in the near term as Jupiter moves past its aspect with Mars and Saturn (4 Capricorn) approaches a closer aspect with natal Jupiter (2 Libra).  However, it is worth noting that Saturn has already been in the midst of a T-square alignment with natal Saturn and Neptune in the NYSE chart during the month of July with few negative effects. 

There is some reason to think that the bearish influence of Saturn will become more manifest as it approaches 2 Capricorn where it will align with Jupiter (2 Libra) and Mercury (2 Taurus).  This alignment is closest in the month of August and the chart cast for 25 August illustrates how the aspects of Saturn and Mars are likely to coincide with some significant downside in US stocks. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

The state of the race: Biden in front

(14 July 2020) As this strange and difficult year continues to unfold, attention is invariably shifting towards the US presidential election in November.  Republican incumbent Donald Trump is trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden by about 10 points in the polls and most betting markets also have Biden enjoying a large lead.  Given the chaotic government response to Covid-19, it seems that Trump's hopes for re-election are remote.  At this point, there would have to be some unforeseen developments in order for Trump to win this election. 

As we know, Trump's horoscope looks quite difficult on Election Day, November 3.   Retrograde Mercury and Saturn are aligned in a square aspect and this raises the possibility of some significant confusion or disruption with the election result.  Moreover, the Mercury-Saturn alignment is poorly aligned with Trump's natal Venus-Saturn conjunction.  This pattern may symbolize disappointment and frustration with the election result.  As an added burden, transiting Rahu is conjunct natal Rahu, a typically malefic pattern which marks periods of change and uncertainty. 

On the face of it, it seems that Trump is likely to lose the election.  And yet, we know there is a real possibility that the election may not be decided on November 3.  The GOP controls the state legislatures of several swing states and may not be in a hurry to endorse their results for partisan political reasons.  Also, the impact of the virus means that most voters will cast mail-in ballots and thus could be subject to increased scrutiny and legal disqualification by the losing side.  So there is some reason to think that the election may not be decided on November 3.  This makes forecasting the ultimate election result more challenging.

One additional source of information may be Trump's 2017 Inauguration chart.  Typically, when the chart of an incumbent is well-aspected, re-election to a second term is more likely.  This occurred in 2012 with Obama's re-election.  The transits in November 2012 were quite auspicious with respect to the horoscope of his initial inauguration in January 2009.  Jupiter  (20 Taurus) and Venus (17 Virgo) were both in degreewise alignments with the Ascendant (20 Aries).  In addition. Saturn and Mercury aligned closely with Jupiter which I take as generally supportive of the incumbent Obama.  Yes, Saturn is a natural malefic, but here a near-stationary benefic Mercury transforms the influence into a net positive. 

Let's compare the chart for the upcoming Nov 3 election with Trump's inauguration on Jan 20, 2017.  Right off the bat, we can see it doesn't look good.  Malefic Mars (21 Pisces) is retrograde in the 12th house of loss and in close alignment with the Ascendant at 20 Aries.  Mars rules the 1st house in the chart so that is a doubly negative influence for Trump.  And we can see that transiting stationary Mercury (1 Libra) falls under the 8th house aspect of natal Mars (0 Pisces), while Mars itself falls under the 3rd house aspect of transiting Saturn.  That is a very nasty-looking pattern for the day of the election.  It suggests that: 1) Trump is likely to have fewer votes than Biden on election day and/or that  2) the country as a whole is likely to be riven with rancor and animosity.

If I was reasonably confident that the election was going to be decided on November 3, I would say that Trump will lose and Biden will win.  But the planets also suggest that the extent of division and turmoil may be such that there is no winner on November 3.  I just don't know.  We can see that the transits to Trump's Inauguration chart improves quite a bit by early December as Jupiter conjoins the Midheaven (10th house cusp = leaders) and conjoins with Saturn near the natal Sun at 6 Capricorn.  

It's very possible this is simply a reflection of the reassuring constitutional process through which Biden is confirmed following the election.  And yet there is some reasonable doubt in my mind if it could represent some other protracted scenarios of uncertainty that may echo the Bush-Gore result in 2000.  I hope to have more to say on this subject in the coming weeks.



Weekly Market Forecast

Meanwhile, stock markets have been choppy in recent days although they have remained largely within a narrow trading range.  Monday's session brought a significant intraday reversal and decline as Covid worries undermined sentiment.  Today (Tuesday) saw another intraday reversal in US markets as promising vaccine news gave investors a reason to buy. 

So there is some reason to think we remain under the shadow of the July 5 lunar eclipse.  Markets may be more indecisive than usual and perhaps more vulnerable to news developments.  This week could see further choppiness as the Sun opposes Pluto tomorrow and then enters sidereal Cancer where it aligns with Saturn on Friday.   With the tense Mars eclipse aspect still due for next week, there is some reason to expect investor sentiment to err on the side of caution for the near term.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Photo: C-Span

Stocks rise on China optimism following lunar eclipse

(7 July 2020)  US stocks remained buoyant for the most part to start the week following Monday's surge in Chinese markets.   Monday's winning session extended last week's rally but today (Tuesday) saw some significant selling as investors digested the frightening Covid numbers coming out of the southern US states.  The down day coincided with a bearish Mars-Mercury square aspect that I noted in last week's post.  This aspect was more likely to deliver some downside since it involved Mars (a generally bearish planet) forming a square aspect which also tends to be more bearish. 

It is important to note that the bullish energy of late may be waning as Jupiter has now moved past its conjunction with Pluto.  Typically, Jupiter conjunctions are more bullish during their applying phase and less powerful in their separating phase.  And bearish Saturn is still aligned closely with Ketu (South Lunar Node) which waits for its appropriate triggering planet.

After Sunday's lunar eclipse, we have entered a more uncertain period, Monday's gains notwithstanding.  Although they can be powerful in their effects, it is important to note that eclipses often don't correspond with immediate market outcomes, either higher or lower.  Eclipses can also be seen as concentrations of energy which have a delayed release through the transits of other planets.  

For example, the previous solar eclipse on Sunday, June 21 was apparently negative due to its alignment with Saturn.  And indeed, the days following the eclipse were somewhat negative in the markets, but the decline deepened on Friday, June 26 when Mars exactly aligned with the eclipse point.  Mars therefore acted as a kind of trigger planet which released the negative energy of the eclipse.

We could see a similar delayed release of eclipse energy in the coming days.  Last Sunday's lunar eclipse at 19 Sagittarius itself was similarly aligned with bearish Saturn, albeit only through a relatively minor 135 degree angle (360/8 x 3).   So that could introduce some additional cautionary sentiment into the markets over the coming days. 

But it is also important to take note of the next planet that aspects that eclipse point at 19 Sagittarius.  As it happens, the next planet that aligns with that eclipse point is again Mars, a bearish planet.  Mars will square that eclipse point on July 20-21.  If a bullish planet like Venus was due to align with the eclipse point, then we could be more sanguine about the outlook.  However, Mars tends to be bearish and the square aspect is more problematic than other angles.  Therefore, the week of July 20 has a higher downside risk than would otherwise be the case.

 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.