Post-Covid: China gets belligerent in India and Hong Kong

(26 May 2020)  There is an old adage in sports that says: 'the best defense is a good offense.'  Recent events suggest that China may well be taking that view to heart as it has come under a storm of protest over its mishandling and deceptions surrounding Covid-19.  The cover-up of the initial outbreak in Wuhan cost valuable time and allowed the virus to spread throughout the world and has led to the current disastrous pandemic. 

But instead of addressing the criticisms, China has embarked on a program of belligerent interference with its neighbours, presumably as a means of distracting attention away from its wrongdoing.  Over the past week, China has renewed its long-simmering border dispute with India in Ladakh through the unprovoked introduction of thousands of PLA troops onto Indian territory.  Also, Beijing has proposed a new tough security bill for Hong Kong that would violate the 'One Country, Two Systems' agreement with the UK from 1997.  The proposed bill would allow China to take a stronger stand against ongoing protests and accelerate the gradual absorption of Hong Kong by the Chinese Communist surveillance state. 

Whatever the geopolitical endgame for Beijing may be, we can see a higher than normal level of aggression in the current transits in the horoscope of China (October 1, 1949).  There are three key sources of affliction in the chart.  First, we can see that Saturn is in the Capricorn Ascendant and just one degree from exact.  This may reflect its level of inner frustration and disappointment as it tries to move out of its lockdown-induced economic recession.  Saturn conjunct the Ascendant is a typical indication for losses and blocked progress and therefore it is no surprise that China is warning that its economy will likely shrink in 2020. 

And we can see that Ketu (South Lunar Node) is in close conjunction with the 12th house cusp representing foreign places.  Ketu is often a disruptive influence to whatever house or planet is it associated with, so its connection with foreign things is quite apt as it is confronting a diplomatic catastrophe over Covid-19 with US President Trump openly accusing China of deception and malfeasance, and now it is facing more negative consequences for its actions in Ladakh,India and Hong Kong. 

Both Ketu and Saturn are relatively slow-moving influences which have been in place for the past two to three months.  Indeed, they are important reasons why China suffered initially with the coronavirus outbreak.  But it is the Mars opposition transit to Saturn that highlights China's latest assertion of its power.  Mars (15 Aquarius) is closing in on its exact opposition with Saturn (20 Leo) next week.  Saturn is lagnesh, lord of the first house (Capricorn), and therefore has a disproportionately large influence over the chart as a whole.  Mars is the planet of action and aggression, of course, and its opposition aspect tends towards situations of conflict rather than compromise. 

With the Mars-Saturn aspect tightening in the coming days, I would expect these tensions to increase, at least until next week.  Early next week (June 1-3) look more volatile in this respect as both Venus and the Sun will align with the natal Saturn.  This suggests situations of maximum tension.  Interestingly, the exact Mars opposition aspect to Saturn on June 3 also features transiting Mars coming under the 8th house aspect of natal Mars (21 Cancer) almost exactly.  This double Mars influence suggests the increased possibility of violence and military action. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have generally drifted sideways over the past week since my last post.  Thus far, the Venus retrograde cycle has not proved decisive either way, although it will remain in effect until June 25.  The US market tested some key technical levels today as the S&P 500 finally tagged the 200-day moving average and the 3000 level.  It also hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.  While the rebound has been strong, there are now some more compelling technical arguments for a pullback at this resistance level.

As it happens, the planets look less positive this week and therefore would appear to support some kind of a pullback.  Mercury conjoins Rahu (North Lunar Node) on Wednesday and Thursday and then Mercury aligns with Saturn on Friday.  This is not to say that all three days will be down, but it does suggest that there is some potential for some profit-taking.  And as hinted at in the above discussion about China, the Mars alignment with the Sun and Venus early next week also seems less commensurate with gains.


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Photo of Indian-Chinese border in Ladakh: Jeevan Singla

Stock rebounding on vaccine hopes as Venus turns retrograde

(19 May 2020) Financial markets remain generally steady this week as investors are focusing their hopes on the future, both in terms of the economy and a vaccine.   US economic data is as bleak as ever with some GDP projections pointing to an unprecedented 35% decline in Q2.  This kind of slowdown would put 2020 on par with the Great Depression of the 1930s.  But with the Fed pouring trillions of dollars into the system, the S&P 500 has managed to climb back to that significant 61.8% retracement level, just below 3000 and the 200-day moving average.  Markets in Europe and Asia continue to lag as capital flows disproportionately into US stocks as a safe haven in these uncertain times.  India has been particularly weak as lockdowns have been extended beyond their original expiry date. 

They say Rule #1 in the stock market is "don't fight the Fed".  If the Fed is intent on propping up a overleveraged or failing financial system, it is usually futile to resist it efforts.  The thinking goes that if Jay Powell is actively cutting interest rates, buying up bonds and other assets, and providing an unlimited supply of funds at the overnight repo window, the market will eventually go up.  In that sense, no matter how bad the economic fundamentals get (mass unemployment, recession, bankruptcy), liquidity is more important for determining stock prices -- at least in the short term.  And since the March 23 low, it has been hard to argue with this logic.  Stocks have rebounded energetically since March's waterfall decline.

So if the economy is reopening as Covid-19 comes under greater control, then surely it is now full steam ahead?  Well, maybe not.  The economic damage done by the global lockdowns cannot be erased overnight as consumer demand has suffered a huge blow as millions of jobs may be lost for years.  And doubts also remain as the astrological outlook is uncertain.  Specifically, Venus turned retrograde last week on May 13.

Venus, the planet of luxury, value, love and beauty, began its once every two year retrograde cycle last Wednesday.  According to traditional astrological theory, the Venus retrograde cycle is a time when asset values come under increased scrutiny and can be subject to reassessment.  This can coincide with a period of reflection about the value of money and assets such as stocks.  The Venus retrograde cycle lasts for about 40 days and will remain in place until June 25.  Venus Rx is something of a wild card for financial markets as previous retrograde cycles have often corresponded with trend reversals and pullbacks. 

Year	Venus Rx start	Venus Rx stop	% change
2020	May 13	June 25	???
2018	October 5	Nov 16	-6%
2017	March 3	April 15	-2%
2015	July 24	Sep 6	-7%
2013	Dec 21	Feb 1	-1%
2012	May 15	June 27	+1%
2010	Oct 7	Nov 19	+2%
2009	March 6	April 18	+32%

As the table shows, the last four Venus retrograde periods have all coincided with market declines.  The prior Venus Rx period occurred between 5 October and 16 November 2018 and marked the start of a major correction in global markets that lasted until Christmas 2018.  While other Venus retrograde cycles produced declines of varying sizes, the clearly negative association is significant. 

On the other hand, markets can sometimes actually rise during Venus's backwards movement through the sky.  This occurred in October 2010 and most famously in early March 2009 just days before the critical 666 low in the S&P 500.  But on both those occasions at least, the Venus retrograde cycle marked a change in the prevailing trend from down to up.  In that sense, as Venus changed its apparent direction, the market trend similarly changed.

In the current period, stocks have generally been rising so even the prospect of a "change in trend" effect suggests that some kind of downside is more likely than not in the days and weeks ahead.   Most technical analysis would suggest that stocks are due for a pullback anyway as more bear market rallies meet resistance near the 200-day moving average. We are getting very close to that level now as the 200 DMA sits at 2998, which is just 2% higher than Tuesday's close.  So even if US stocks pushed a bit higher in the coming days, the Venus retrograde period is likely to act as a drag on sentiment as asset values get a sober second look into late June.  I would therefore expect stocks to be lower by the end of the Venus retrograde cycle on June 25.

As far as the rest of this week goes, there is the likelihood of some downside tomorrow (Wednesday) as Mercury aligns with Saturn.  The rest of the week looks mixed as the Sun-Saturn alignment on Thursday looks less iffy.  However, the late week Mercury-Venus conjunction will align with Neptune on Friday and should coincide with some upside. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

Fauci sounds note of caution on US reopening

(12 May 2020)  America's top doctor has warned of more "suffering and death" if the US reopens too quickly.  Dr. Anthony Fauci testified before the Senate on Tuesday and warned that the economic reopening may be happening too fast and risks further outbreaks of Covid-19.  Fauci's note of caution contrasted sharply with President Trump's optimism and desire for the country to get back to normal and end the shutdown.  Fauci's downbeat tone took the stock market lower as the indexes fell by up to 2% today.

To quote Winston Churchill, we may only be at the "end of the beginning" for this coronavirus.  As I noted in last week's post, there is a very real possibility of additional waves in September and even in December.  We can take another perspective on this question by examining the Inauguration chart for the current president, Donald Trump.  Last week, we saw how afflictions to Trump's natal horoscope in September and December suggested the possibility that the pandemic may not just disappear in the coming weeks. 

We get much the same story from an analysis of the Trump Inauguration horoscope on January 20, 2017.  The coronavirus pandemic prompted the declaring of a national emergency on March 13, 2020.  We can see that the Inauguration horoscope was heavily afflicted in March.  Mars was conjunct Pluto (coercion, intense conflict), Saturn was conjunct the Sun (disappointment, weakness, restriction) and Ketu (South Lunar Node) was conjunct Mercury.  This affliction by Ketu was very appropriate since Mercury is the lord of the 6th house ruling the health of the nation.

Due to its retrograde station yesterday at 7 Capricorn, Saturn has remained in close conjunction with the natal Sun (6 Capricorn) throughout the first two months of this national emergency.  The Saturn-Sun conjunction reflects the intractable problems facing the US as well as the loss of vitality and injury to the national well-being.  It should also be seen as a reflection of the criticism and pressure that Trump faces since he is also represented by the Sun (leader).  Saturn will remain in close conjunction with the Sun through the month of May an into June as well.

The difficulty for the US there is another focus of affliction in August and September.  Saturn will end its current retrograde cycle at 1 degree of Capricorn in September.  This will form a near-exact 60 degree aspect to Mars (0 Pisces) in the Inauguration chart.  Mars rules Aries, of course, which is lord of the 1st house signifying the nation as a whole.  This may be seen as either another affliction to the health of the nation (i.e. virus outbreak) or as a possible conflict or war-type situation.  Both are likely to be negative influences on financial markets. 

At the same time, transiting Ketu (29 Scorpio) will be conjunct Saturn in September. This suggests another layer of affliction which may be separate from the pandemic.  To be sure, it may simply represent more economic troubles from the virus.  But it could also signify some upset or erosion (Ketu) to the pillars or foundations of the nation (Saturn).  If the virus re-emerges as a problem in September, then there is talk that the November elections may have to be re-scheduled or altered in some way.  This Ketu-to-Saturn transit is a possible manifestation of this level of interruption of the status quo.  Trump looks to be under intense pressure from this transit in any event, so we should keep an open mind about the possibility of some major changes occurring in the US during the fall.  Again, this looks like bad news for financial markets regardless of how it manifests. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks generally went sideways last week as the promise of endless Fed QE largely offset any nervousness in the stock market.  This neutral to bullish outcome was not unexpected as I thought the planets looked fairly mixed last week. The late week Venus-Mercury-Neptune seemed fairly bullish and suggested the likelihood of some temporary upside at least. 

This week has started off on a more negative note, however, as US markets sold off on Tuesday after Fauci's sober reminder about the likely trajectory of the virus.  The negative start to the week was in keeping with my expectations.  Saturn turned retrograde on Monday, while Venus is due to turn retrograde on Wednesday and Jupiter turns retrograde on Thursday.  Retrograde stations aren't always negative influences, however, but they can represent turning points in sentiment nonetheless.  Usually, retrograde stations still need to be assessed on the nature of the alignments they form.

There are some bearish-looking alignments this week that may have yet to manifest.  Mars will align with Saturn and Ketu throughout the week so further downside looks likely.  Thursday's Moon-Mars conjunction could make that day worse than Wednesday or Friday.  Early next week doesn't look much better as Mercury aligns with Saturn.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

COVID-19: how likely is a second wave?

(5 May 2020)  It seems we are beginning a new chapter in this coronavirus pandemic.  As the lockdowns are slowly being relaxed and economies start to reopen, we have to adapt to a new, constrained reality for the foreseeable future.  A vaccine seems very unlikely anytime soon, and many experts think it may be several years away, if it ever comes at all.  A more effective treatment protocol may be a more plausible path back to normal life, but there is little sign of that at this point. 

This means that we may have to live with compulsory social distancing and mask-wearing for some time to come.  While summer weather could bring further reduction in infections and deaths, there is still the threat of a second wave of the virus which could force another lockdown.  Some observers worry that this could happen as soon as full reopening takes place and people begin to mingle in public once again.  Other experts wonder if a second wave could come during the fall when people move indoors with the colder weather. 

From an astrological perspective, a second wave seems likely, at least in the US.  While there are a few ways we could examine this question, let's look at the horoscope of President Trump.  Trump's chart is the symbolic embodiment for the US as a whole so when Trump's chart is well-disposed, the US is more likely to be doing well.  And when Trump's chart is afflicted by malefic planets, the country as a whole is likely to be suffering in some way. 

The outbreak of the coronavirus in the US in March and April coincided with Saturn's transit to Trump's equal 6th house cusp (6 Capricorn).   The 6th house is the house that governs health matters so the Saturn transit was a clear signal of difficulty.  In addition, transiting Pluto (0 Capricorn) was exactly opposite Trump's natal Saturn (0 Cancer), which is the lord of the 6th house (6L).  Like Saturn, Pluto is considered to be a malefic planet, especially when in "hard" aspect (0, 90,180 degrees). 

It is perhaps not surprising that the US has had a very difficult time getting the virus under control since Saturn is stationing at 7 Capricorn next week and thus still very close to Trump's 6th house cusp representing health.  After Saturn turns retrograde on May 11, it will gradually move away from the 6th house cusp thus offering the real possibility that the outbreak will improve over the summer.

However, the potential for a second wave may be seen in the placement of Saturn when it concludes its retrograde cycle in September.  Saturn returns to direct motion on September 29 when it stations at 1 Capricorn.  The problem here is that this will almost exactly oppose his natal Saturn (0 Cancer). 

To be sure, the 6th house cusp will no longer be closely afflicted, so that could reflect a less serious second wave.  But the Saturn-to-Saturn opposition aspect does nonetheless increase the likelihood of more health-related concerns for Trump, and hence for the US as a whole.  Due to Saturn's slow velocity before the station,  its malefic influence may be manifest a few weeks before the exact station on Sep 29 and perhaps as early as August when Mars turns retrograde. 

We can also see that transiting Ketu will be conjunct Trump's Moon at this time and this could reflect disruption (Ketu) involving the people (Moon).  This is another negative factor in the mix that makes a second wave more likely in the early fall. 

I would also note that December and January 2021 may see further health concerns as Saturn will again conjoin the 6th house cusp at 6 Capricorn while Pluto (0 Capricorn) will again exactly oppose natal Saturn (6L).  This dual affliction to health-related chart points could mean that there may even be a third wave of COVID infections in the US.  And yet the presence of Jupiter with Saturn on the 6th house cusp may introduce a different energy into the equation.  It's still not a clearly positive pattern, but perhaps there will be some new sense of hope that the worst may be over.  Let's hope so. 

As this analysis is US-centered, I will try to post something soon on the possible paths forward for other countries, such as India, UK and Germany.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks were mixed last week as the late week Mercury-Uranus conjunction appeared to offer some respite from the ongoing Saturn-Ketu alignment.  Markets have been more bearish to start this week, as Mars entered the sign of Aquarius and aligned with Pluto on Monday and Tuesday.  Asian and European markets have suffered the most from these influences, with US stocks faring comparatively better. 

The rest of the week looks mixed.  The bullish alignment of Mercury with Venus and Neptune seems likely to deliver at least one up day on either Wednesday and Thursday.  Thursday is probably the better of the two days on paper, as the Moon will sit opposite Mercury in the morning during the US trading day.  Friday could be a make-or-break day as April's US jobs report is due. 

Most observers are expecting a huge jump in unemployment but no one really knows how big it will be or how the market will react.  Unfortunately, the planets lack any clear indications on Friday.  Mercury will be past its alignment so that lessens the available bullish energy and offers a slight bearish bias.  But it is far from clear and still could go either way.  Next week's alignment of Mars with Saturn and Ketu looks more obviously bearish, however.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.